Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Sunday, November 23, 2025, in front of a completely green cryptomap on the left which is pleasing, all red on the right which stings the eyes. And how come there are two cryptomaps today? Because it's Sunday, and like every Sunday, your beloved little fox will give you a long-term analysis, will look at the weekly chart to see if in the coming weeks things don't look good, heading all down even deeper, or if they look good because there are small divergences and nice things appearing. Tonight from 9 PM to 10 PM, I will also be live, like every Sunday evening, with $1000 to win, 10 vouchers of $100, distributed by Bingx, the channel's partner for all these years, to people. You just need to have a Bingx account. Don't hesitate to come to the live on YouTube tonight, we'll talk about everything that happened. So it's 24 hours, we have a map that is pleasing, that is green, some are getting a little annoyed like XRP which is very supported on the right. This is the map, unfortunately, in the weekly timeframe, so it has been a hard, hard week. It's been like this since Friday. Well, it's pushing a bit, what we took from the New York party, sent a little fireworks display on Friday afternoon in "hey guys" mode. There might be an auto-vest to go down. Go, this one is for me. Well, it's a bit revived the crowds. That's why even the American ETFs were rather buyers on Friday. So instead of finishing in the red, we finished in the green. We have the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, Wall Street also finished rather in the green. So we are rather happy. Now, that doesn't mean next week will be magnificent. Here, everything is beautiful, everything is nice, everything is pushing. We are still cautious. The market is still in extreme fear. Look at this. The last time we had this here, it was about 6 months of decline, roughly speaking, a month later when Trump arrived and started showing his big sign. We were live then, where he was showing, he did it country by country. You 60%, you 60%, you 50%. I remind you, and bam bam bam, the markets fell for 6 months. It was December, January, February, March, April, about 5 months, well, they fell, and we went to look for extreme fear zones too, and your beloved little crazy one told you, be careful, extreme fear zones are where we will see the little bottom. Well, it takes a little time, it's not like "yes, it's good, it's in extreme fear, it's taking off," no, it falls, you see, it goes up a bit, it falls again, it goes up a bit, it falls, it really makes people capitulate, and when they are well cooked. That's when it takes off again, you see. Well, we're starting to be well cooked. I don't know about you, but it's starting to smell burnt because you see, given the extreme zone we are in, I wouldn't be surprised if at some point there is either a small rebound to retest extreme fear again to take off, and then we make a small bottom, we rebound a bit stronger with a small correction, and we take off again. You see, something like that. Well, we'll see. So, in front of us here, the altcoins on the weekly chart. So, I want to tell you, the structure, the structure, the structure is almost always right, the structure. There. When we had the terrible week here, remember, October 10th, what did the structure tell us? Well, the structure didn't tell me "I'm going to do A, B, and then C, I'm leaving directly." You see, there are very strong probabilities that we will make a real wave C, and that's what we had. So no surprise. Personally, I'm not surprised at all that we had the lightning wick that said "Hey, I'm starting wave C, and after that, we're doing a real wave C." Because a wave C can't be something like this in one candle, you see. And so, on one hand, the theory, the structure tells us that since it's going to make a small regular flat, there are chances, the structure must break the low here, unfortunately, of April, to go and look for the 200-week moving average. So what the structure can do is go and look for the 200-week moving average, which is the average price of the top 125 altcoins over the last 200 weeks. Make a small wick below. In fact, you just need to break this level with a wick, you see, you can just touch the 200-week moving average and take off again. And that will make you a nice regular flat with wave A, wave B, and wave C. Boom! There. So that would mean that finally, the structure at least tells us that to validate itself, it has to go down at least another -23%. It's not mandatory to fall directly, okay? That is to say, wave C is not mandatory. Look at wave A, it falls, it goes up for a month, it falls again, it goes up for 3-4 weeks, it falls again, it goes up for 3 weeks. You see that? So, it's not mandatory to go "hello, boom" directly. It can go up for 2-3 weeks, a month. Look here, it was 5 candles, it was there for almost a month and a half. So it can go up for almost a month and a half, go and look for the 50-week moving average, and then boom, do something like this. Okay? Let's say if we really want to cook, I don't know if anyone likes burnt meat, but if we want to burn everyone, well, boom, you fall directly. But I don't think there will be another 2 weeks. But hey, you'll tell me that if there are still 2 red weeks, -20%, -25% for 2 weeks, well, it's settled, you see. Well, because if it starts to test the 50-week moving average, it's very possible it will do that, test the 50-week moving average, then fall again like this. It's just that this will last several weeks, and even several weeks will drag on for another 2-3 months, you see, it's maybe more, well, that's the idea. So the structure tells us, we're going to suffer more, but maybe not right away. It's either directly or after a rebound and we fall. You see the lower Bollinger Band too, you see Bollinger tells us that things don't look good because we are breaking the lower Bollinger Band, and so, well, we often need two candles, you see, because one candle is not enough, but if next week we still have a small red candle, then the Bollinger Band will widen and boom boom boom, direction, we will go directly to the 200-week moving average, at least it's settled, we don't waste time, you see. Well, okay. After why I'm talking about a small rebound on the 50-week moving average and then falling again, I'm not making it up, it's because the closing price tonight, theoretically, we will have a small hidden bullish divergence. There. Well, so we'll see if this small bullish divergence will cause a bullish rebound before falling again, or if we don't care and we fall directly. There. So in any case, yes, it's not good. The structure is almost always right, and the structure is still right. Little by little, little by little, and there. And we are in the middle of it, but we are not far from being finished. The daily chart, I'll go through it quickly, we are re-entering the Bollinger Band. That's good. If it continues to be a bit green tomorrow, it will look good. It means we're having a small technical rebound that's pleasing. We've tested the oversold zone twice. The bears are starting to get a little tired. However, the thing I don't like at all is this. I was talking about it this morning in the VIP trading channel. It's this structure that's not pretty. Uh, this has a higher probability of falling, a small A, a small B. Ah, a small C. However, after finishing the small C, well, then it can take off again. There, that's the idea. So, the most important thing, our beloved Bitcoin on the weekly chart. Well, where are we? Well, we are at the same structure with wave A here, wave B there, and the famous C. We've been talking about this famous C for so many months. We didn't know when it would start, not tomorrow, but we knew months in advance that we had to go through this wave C. But we didn't know it would be directly this summer, it could have been in January, huh. Well, anyway. And so, well, it's here, the wave C. So what we retain, what we really retain is that we must hold the 38% Fibonacci retracement first, that would be good news, which is around $83,800. For now, the weekly candle is held by the 32% Fibonacci retracement. Why? I've shared a lot about this. Every time an asset, any asset, whether it's Bitcoin, whether it's the S&P 500, whether it's Amazon, whatever you want, any stock market asset, as long as it holds its 38% Fibonacci retracement after a correction, it resumes an uptrend. Well, if the 32% Fibonacci retracement is lost, we'll say it stinks. To say we're crossing out this running flat, it's over, it's useless, we need to break the bottom of A, $74,500. That is to say, if this wave breaks, falls, and breaks $74,000, the bottom of wave A, we'll say goodbye to the running flat and welcome to a new corrective structure. And so, there will be a wave A, well, the wave A that is ongoing, then a wave B, then a wave C, boom, wave C can go and look for the 200-week moving average around $55,000, the 300-week moving average around $50,000. You see the idea, well, it will be, it will be that, it's heading towards $50,000 roughly, $10,000 more or less, I don't know, well, that's the idea, we'll see, we'll see. So first, we need to break $74,000. And so, what does that mean? As long as the bottom of wave A at $74,500 is not broken, we still have this running flat, small A, small B, small C, which is operational, and boom, it will be an explosion. And to give a little bullishness, imagine that we have found the bottom here at $80,700, you see, and that the running flat starts, I'm not saying it takes off immediately, it can drag on, drag on, drag on. Well, what are the targets? Well, the targets are to reach at least $165,000, the Fibonacci extension, that's the minimum. And if it gets excited, why not $218,000, but $165,000 would be the minimum. So that's if the running flat is validated. What happened in 2021, at the end of the bull run? Instead of having the running flat validated, small A, small B, small C, all the way to the moon, it started to make an ascending channel, it lasted several months. So if we start to have an ascending channel like this forming, it's bad, bad, bad, bad, because instead of having a running flat, small A, small B, small C, it went all the way to the moon. It will be impulse, correction, and boom, continuation. Welcome to a bear market on the 5, 200, or 300-week moving averages around $500. There, that's the idea, okay, of what could happen. For now, Bitcoin, as long as it doesn't break, at least for me, $74,500, the running flat is there, and I'm fine with that. If it starts to break it, it will go further, I'll add layers. So for now, it's rather good. Tonight also, normally at the close, there will be a good little hidden bullish divergence. That can help. There. So now we'll see if Bitcoin will take off. What bothers me, in fact, is that the altcoins, well, they haven't validated their structure. Will the altcoins make a contracting flat? That exists. An A, a B, a C, that's a contracting flat. It means that wave C will not break the low of A. It contracts, you see, it tightens, and boom, it explodes. These are rare figures, but they exist. But what bothers me is that the altcoins will perhaps want to do the other pattern. The higher probability is to do a regular flat. That means the altcoins should go down -20%. That means Bitcoin, well, the problem is, if the altcoins go down -20%, it means Bitcoin can go down, let's say another -10%, reach $75,000 and not break $74,000. But already that stinks, you see. Well, so for now, it's like this, but the altcoins, that bothers me a little, you see. Well, so for now, there. As long as we don't break $74,500, we have hope. At least I have hope because I trust the structures. If that breaks, well, welcome to the bear market, clearly. Well, some will say we are already in a bear market, yes, for many altcoins. Yes. Well, on the daily chart, a small rebound here that is pleasing. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is well preserved, we are rather happy. Bitcoin is in a strong oversold zone. You won't see it oversold like this very often, beloved Bitcoin. However, like the altcoins, what I don't like is this small ascending channel here. Uh, this, with a wave A, a wave B, and boom, a wave C. To invalidate this, it would need to pop, start pushing. But as long as beloved Bitcoin is in a channel, unfortunately, it has a higher probability of falling to make a small regular flat. There. So, well, it would need to get out of this channel, but well, it would need to get really excited. We would need to see something pushing, you see, because otherwise, it will be a descent, as long as it is on this channel. In terms of liquidity, long-term liquidity accumulated over the last 30 days, we see that there is still room to go up to $79,000. Of course, it's not mandatory that it goes there, but in any case, if it continues to fall, what will it do? It will test below the wick here that we made, but it was on Friday that we went to look for around $80,500. So if it makes another small red move, it will go below $74,500 to eat that. All these longs that are placed, we note that the bulk of the money is clearly to the north. Regarding Ethereum on the weekly chart. Well, so it's exactly the same for him, except it's a running flat, like beloved Bitcoin. Small A, small B, small C. Small C should not go and look for the low of A here around $1,400. Ethereum is now heading towards one of its biggest supports. The 200-week moving average, which is the average price over the last 200 days, or rather the last 200 weeks. at $2,430. That's where it is, okay? If it starts to break the 200-week moving average. So if we see a candle like this that breaks weekly around $2,450, it's not good. That means it's heading towards its gap here at $1,733. The running flat will still be valid. Okay? The running flat says as long as it doesn't break $1,400, it's still valid. And so, be careful. In short, it's a fairly bearish scenario, but not in the sense of "it's over, bear market," you see, in the sense of the middle. In short, what is the bullish scenario? For me, the bullish scenario is that Bitcoin has made its low at $80,000, it will drag on a bit, and then we explode. And that means that here the altcoins make a contracting flat and it pushes, okay? Well, okay. Bearish scenario. Well, Bitcoin breaks its $74,000. We'll all be screwed. Well, and the mid-bearish scenario. You see, what would that be? It would be that the altcoins go down -20%, around -25% to validate their regular flat. In that case, Ethereum, it will go, it will dip too, Ethereum will do a small, let's say, -30% down to the gap, huh? Well, it could, huh. The gap at $1,733, and we assume that Bitcoin, well, it stops just before $74,000. So, it does, let's say, a small, let's say -14%, -15%, you see. That's the scenario in "we are on the edge, on the edge." Well, so, I'm speculating. Okay. For now, there is no break of the 200-week moving average here by Ethereum. So that's good. If it starts to break it, well, that's, yes, heading for the gap. Well, so we also see that on the 200-week moving average, just above, there is the upper Bollinger Band which was broken this week. This means that Ethereum, well, there are strong probabilities of making a move towards $1,200 or $2,450. We'll have to pray that it holds. If it doesn't hold, hello $1,733, unfortunately. After, in the medium to long term, as long as it doesn't break $1,400, it's still on a running flat, explosion to the moon, be careful. So it can even go for $1,733 if it wants. As long as it doesn't break $1,400, the running flat will always be valid in "the party to the moon" mode. After, well, to give you a little bit of, a little bit of, let's say, pleasure, you see, we can do a little calculation of how much Ethereum could rise. Imagine it goes for the gap. Let's say, we're nice, at $1,728. Well, if it validates this small running flat by going for the gap with small A, small B, small C, the explosion is to reach at least $7,486. So yes, well, they will be rewarded. People will be rewarded. Those who hold on will be rewarded. After, we can, be careful, not all Bitcoin, Ethereum, it's okay. The rest, be careful. On the daily chart. So, yesterday, the day before yesterday, well, a small green day, calm and peaceful, well, yesterday, today, sorry, a small green. Ethereum is also in oversold territory. We don't see it often. Uh, however, what I don't like, same thing, is this ascending channel. Well, as long as we have this small ascending channel forming, there will be a higher probability, well, for impulse, correction, and boom, continuation. So for now, goodbye to that. In terms of long-term liquidity here, it's the same, there's room to go up to $2,500. The 200-week moving average is around $2,450, you see. So, can it make a small move of $450? It has the right to, if it wants to eat all that is below. Solana now. So Solana is more dead than Ethereum. Why? Because Solana, like all altcoins that didn't break their all-time high before the January crash, well, theoretically they must go below their lows. That is to say, Solana to validate its regular flat. Well, it's like the, the, the entire altcoin market, it must make a good little descent to go and look for at least -25%, you see? Between -25% and -30%. So that's what the structure tells us. If the structure follows calmly, the highest probabilities, well, you have wave A which is there, then you have wave B which is there, then you have wave C which will fall, fall, and wave C will go and touch below here, the low that Solana made at $95. Remember, I'm sure you remember when I told you this, wait for me, well, I'm not inventing, it's the structure, I read what I see in front of me. The structure says, "As long as Solana doesn't break $296, it will get a wave C and go look below $95." When Solana was above $200 and all that, $250, you said "No way, never in a million years." I know because some people made those kinds of comments. Well, no, welcome, welcome. The structure is almost always right, 95% of the time. Well, so there. It's not mandatory that it goes in a straight line. So if the structure follows its path, it's Solana below $95. Unless Bitcoin finds a bottom now. In that case, can it make a contracting flat, small A, small B, and explode? Yes, it's just that contracting is rare, but on the other hand, if Solana, like Ethereum, makes a big drop of -30% each, it could mean that Bitcoin breaks $74,000 and it means, well, it's dead, you see, it's dead. Well, that would mean what? It's true that it's a good question that I ask myself, alone, at the same time as I'm talking because I'm talking to myself, it's that it means that, well, Bitcoin breaks $74,000, okay, starts a new structure, but it would mean that, well, the running flats are still, to see if it will be valid for Ethereum, but it can still be valid because maybe Ethereum will still have its running flat because its running flat is quite low, but it means that just Solana, well, it's just that the wave C will go down further, you see, it's just that it stops going down further, boom, it can go down to $10,000, wave C can go down to $10,000 if it wants, even to $60,000 before taking off again. You see, that's the idea. So it will depend on where Bitcoin stops. If Bitcoin stops before $74,000, we have a chance that Solana makes a contracting flat. If Bitcoin breaks $74,000, well, there's a chance that Solana is heading for a descent towards $60,000. I don't know, somewhere around there, you see. That will be very bad. Well, there is also the break of the lower Bollinger Band here, which is not good. That means that if next week, there is still a small red candle, the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly chart will fall. Direction the 200-week moving average at $100. The minimum will be the next stop. So for now, it's true that it's not very pretty. Uh, there are no big reversals for anyone. Well, a small green candle today for Solana, which went to look for the oversold zone. That's interesting. The bears are getting a bit tired, however, well, like its peers, it's not at all pretty to have an ascending channel that has a higher probability of falling to make a small regular flat before pushing, you see. And to finish, no, finally, the liquidity, Solana's liquidity, it could gain a little. Yes, up to the 200-week moving average, there's a little bit, after of course the rest above, at some point, we'll have to take out everything above. And to finish, XRP. Well, XRP, it doesn't have the same structure as the others, it completely broke its structure. It's when it validated, you know, the lawsuit, like they won the lawsuit against the SEC. Boom, it exploded, then it corrected, then boom, it broke again, then it corrected again. Well, what it's doing is a bit ugly. Well, it's not too serious. So, what do we retain? For now, it's true that it's breaking its lower Bollinger Band like the others. So if next week, it makes another red candle, well, that's the validation. The lower Bollinger Band will widen, and it will be several more red weeks, heading for the 200-week moving average around $104. Its next big support is there. Well, like everyone, it made the big wick of hell, and now what is the candle doing? Well, it could retest the wick. The wick is far away. The wick is far away. It's big, clearly, this wick is not to be trifled with. If we take the low, for example, again, we have to go down another -29%. But ultimately, XRP could do it, it could do it. Well, it's, from now until the wick, it's about -40%, but it remains very possible. It remains very possible. If, well, if Solana, anyway, Solana was -30%, Ethereum was also in the -25% to -30% range, so that means that XRP, yes, can do -40% without any problem. There. So yes, for now, I don't have too many good news. I'm sorry. So what could also happen is a few green candles to go and look for the 50-week moving average and then fall, then rise, fall, you see, a bit like Total 3 on the weekly is doing, well, no, it was, it was, yes, it was, you see, you fall and you rise for 2-3 weeks, 4 weeks, you fall, you rise for 3 weeks, you fall, you rise for 3 weeks. Well, so it can do that too for everyone, that is to say, we have fallen, we can rise for 3-4 weeks, fall again, rise for 3-4 weeks, and it's something that is hard, a long, long, big, big bearish wave that lasts many months, like, well, everyone would do that. Well, it's, it's good. So for now, it's not very, very, very pretty, unfortunately, even for XRP. On the daily chart, so today, it's making a nice little green candle, that's very good, we are rather happy. Well, it's still on this small ascending channel, it's the same, be careful, if XRP continues to push, that's good, we'll put an X on it. And like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, this has a higher probability of falling too to gain a little. So, XRP, the problem is that it has more liquidity to the south than all the others. So if it falls, it will go far down, you see, compared to the others like Solana where there's less to eat, you see. Ethereum, there's a little less, and Bitcoin, there's a little less. Well, for now, yes, I'm sorry, I don't have good news. For now, there are no signs of reversal. For now, in short, we just, we pray, we light a candle, we cross our fingers that, well, around the 38% Fibonacci retracement at $83,800 will be held on a candle close. I'm talking about the close, it's okay if there's a wick below, it's especially the close. We hope that $74,500 holds, that's the last rampart. And for now, well, there are no signs, it's sinking, there are no signs of reversal except for the small hidden bullish divergences, but that's not enough. So it's not pretty, especially the last supports, especially I'm looking at $74,500 holding, and the problem is that since the altcoins, well, if the structure is made, they will go down another -25% to get there, and similarly on the Nasdaq, well, that represents the altcoins well, it's on a regular flat, if it wants to validate itself on the Nasdaq, it's the same, -25% to -30%, so that's a bit concerning. Said like that, Bitcoin and Ethereum are on a running flat, they can validate it anytime, it can validate itself even by pushing, it can validate itself after a -10%, but it can also go for a -25%, -30% to the gap before taking off again, you see, and it will still remain valid. There. Well, I hope in any case that I have brought you a little information. We will talk about all of this tonight during the live stream from 9 PM to 10 PM. I send you kisses and see you later. Bye bye.