Transcription
Folks, SpaceX went public on Friday, and it continues to break record after record. However, a lot of people don't realize that we're heading for the next phase of this. The coming phase is going to make some people generational money, and it's going to lose others generational money.
In today's video, we're going to break down four things. Number one, what happens next for SpaceX stock. Number two, when the anticipated cycle down is going to happen and the exact calendar dates you need to know for SpaceX stock. Three, why I believe SpaceX's IPO success is setting it up to do very powerful acquisitions of smaller space companies. Four, the top space stocks I believe will benefit the most from all of this over the long run. We're going to go through these name by name. We'll discuss my favorites and some that you might want to think twice about. Timestamps down below. I'll present my research and, as always, let you be the judge. If you're the one taking the ultimate risk, you got to be the one doing the ultimate frisk. Always do your own due diligence on all ideas presented. Thou who take thy ultimate risk must do thy ultimate frisk. This was written in stone thousands of years back.
Okay, so let's do a quick recap. SpaceX priced its shares at $135 a piece and sold about $555 million of them, raising $75 billion right out of the gate on Friday. And demand for this deal was absolutely massive. Everybody expected it to be massive, but this was a whole other level. It was oversubscribed many times over. So the underwriters did exactly what they do when a deal is red hot. They pulled the trigger on what's called the green shoe, which is basically an option to sell even more shares into all of this demand. And just this morning, it became official with that over-allotment exercised, SpaceX sold nearly 639 million shares total and pulled in a staggering $85.7 billion. And the stock itself has been on an absolute tear. At the time of making this video, the stock was at $213 a share, which puts it at about $2.8 trillion in market cap. For context, Amazon is worth $2.65 trillion.
Now, this is a new IPO. So, by the time you see this, the stock has probably gone up and down about five more times. However, it's very important to understand the historical context here. Just take a look at another Elon Musk company, Tesla. Rewind to June 2010. Tesla goes public at $17 a share. It was a tiny deal, raised only about $226 million, basically pocket change by today's standards. But the company had almost no revenue, wasn't making a dime of profit, and the Model S didn't even exist yet. A lot of Wall Street thought this company was a joke. Tesla was considered a company that IPOed specifically to dupe retail investors. Wall Street and the financial media hammered for years that Tesla was way too dangerous to invest in and that you'd be way better and way safer investing in something actually profitable like Radio Shack or Sears. The conversation you're seeing right now with SpaceX isn't too far off from the same conversation we heard with Tesla over many years.
And how did the Tesla IPO age? Well, if you would put $1,000 into Tesla at that IPO and simply held on, it would be worth more than $300,000 today. The stock is up more than 300 times over where it started. It turned into one of the single greatest money makers in the history of the stock market. There's no company that made retail traders more money and lost short sellers and Wall Street doubters more money than Tesla stock. And SpaceX long-term is probably going to do the same thing. But it's very important to understand the nuances because the price that you enter really dictates your experience. Holding Tesla was nowhere near a smooth ride up. If you bought at IPO or in the early days of Tesla, that was no easy game. For the first couple of years, the stock mostly chopped sideways. It drifted up a bit, but nothing close to what came later. Then in 2013, it finally exploded up almost 600% in a single year. And then it went flat again for about five straight years. Five years of basically going nowhere. And along the way, the stock crashed at least 50% from its high on four separate occasions. One of those drops was a stomach-turning 70% plus. There are very long stretches of time where people are saying routinely that this company could go bankrupt.
So yes, early Tesla investors made massive fortunes. However, the vast, vast majority of people, especially in the retail investing crowd, well, when they see a stock going down, when they see a stock not moving for years, they think to themselves, "This must be a scam. I must rotate somewhere else." Or even worse, "I must panic sell." In fact, statistics show again and again that retail investors lose money on even the most profitable companies in the world, the companies that move up massively year after year after year. And the reason is because so many people refuse to buy any kind of stock until it's run up massively. And then when you're operating with that mental framework, well, all of a sudden you're going to end up panic selling at lows.
Now, SpaceX is starting at a very different point than Tesla did. Very different. Tesla became public as a tiny, nearly broke startup, which is exactly why it had so much room to go up 300x. SpaceX, however, did all of this growth during its private period. And the public SpaceX is already gigantic, over $2 trillion with billions in revenue already coming in, right? So the easy, early, ground floor type returns that early Tesla investors enjoyed, well, that's already been given out to private investors, and many of those might be selling a lot of those shares over the next 12 months. You have to remember that the government protects protects regular investors from investing early in private startups. That way, you can only buy the ones that succeed, and you can only buy them late in the game. And then politicians get to brag about how they protected you from all of those gains.
So anyway, SpaceX and Tesla, two very different companies at two very different chapters. However, the core lesson still holds, and it's a very powerful one. And that lesson, in my opinion, is that an Elon Musk company with a genuine technology moat is going to be very volatile, but can very much reward long-term patient investors. The key, though, is making sure that you're not overpaying, right? And you're buying when everybody else is in a fear cycle, not in a euphoria cycle. Right now, the stock is being propped up by three temporary things: a microscopic 4% float, off-the-charts demand, and the soon-to-come forced buying from index funds that have to add it and are going to be buying the tiny available float. This is why you've been seeing so much demand the last couple of trading days, because all these people are expecting more and more buyers to keep coming. And while a lot of them are expecting a big cycle down, they think that they have some more room to scalp. And because the float is so small, the question is ultimately where is the stock going to land when more and more of that float is available? And that float is going to become more and more available over the next year.
So, late June into early July, the index inclusions are going to wrap up. The FTSE, the Russell, the NASDAQ 100 is the big one. Well, once they have done their forced buying and included SpaceX in their indexes, well, that one-time automatic windfall is going to be done. Long-term, anybody that invests in these indexes is going to help support the price of SpaceX. However, understand that this big catalyst is going to be behind them. Mid-July, the underwriters' price stabilization window closes. The banks that help support the stock right out of the gate are going to start stepping back. Early September, around September 2nd, this is the first earnings as a public company. This is the first time that the story has to turn into concrete numbers. Starlink subscriber growth, AI spending, Starship progress, all graded for the very first time. Now, this is the key point. That same earnings window, and this one's actually pretty sneaky. You have to make sure you understand this. There's a conditional clause that lets an early 10% chunk of insider shares unlock ahead of schedule if the stock holds at least 30% above its IPO price into that earnings date. SpaceX stock is already 30% above the IPO price. So that early supply release is very much in play here. December 8th, 2026. This is the big one. The main 180-day lockup expires. Early employees, early investors, and the banks can all finally start selling around the same time. Many analysts are calling this a candidate for one of the largest single-day insider selling events in market history. So you definitely want to be circling this one. And then finally, you have June 12th, 2027. Elon's own gigantic block of shares, billions of them, are going to be locked until this date. So even after that December cliff, his mega stake is the last enormous overhang sitting out there. So these are the biggest events in terms of the float extending. And there's some other specific lockup dates that you should be aware of as well. I'll post the little schedule here that we've been talking about over the last couple of months. But you have to understand that of course, stocks trade on supply and demand. Right now, the supply of shares is very, very little. The demand is very, very high. Over the coming months, you're going to see the demand drop because, well, the publicity isn't going to be as exciting anymore, and you're going to see the supply expand. And so after all that is said and done, well, then you're going to start finding opportunities for SpaceX stock that are actually good values.
Wait, Charlie, are you saying that long-term SpaceX might actually be a good buy if you get in at a good price? The financial media is saying that Elon Musk only makes scam companies. How could you even suggest that SpaceX has some real value to it? SpaceX is a generational, life-changing company, but you have to make sure that your life is changed in a positive way by actually buying in at a good price. But just real quick, you need to understand why SpaceX is such a big deal and why you do need to be paying attention for dip-buy opportunities that are going to come over the coming months.
Number one, they own the cheapest way to get to space, and nobody is even close. SpaceX is the company that figured out how to land a rocket, fix it up, and fly it again over and over. Everyone else basically throws the rocket away after one flight. Of course, SpaceX reuses everything. They can put stuff in space far cheaper than anyone else on Earth. And today, they handle more than 80% of everything the entire planet launches. When you control the cheapest route into space, sooner or later, every other company, every other space company has to come to you.
Number two, Starlink is a money machine. Starlink sends internet down from thousands of small satellites so people in the middle of nowhere, plus airplanes, ships, and the military can get online basically anywhere on the globe. It already has over 12 million customers paying every single month. It's growing around 50% a year, and it keeps a big chunk of every dollar's profit. And remember, there are still billions of people on Earth without good internet, and Starlink is years ahead of anybody trying to copy it. This one piece of the company alone is probably worth $4 to $500 billion.
Three, the whole company is one big machine where every part feeds the next. This is the part most people completely miss. They think that SpaceX is just this weird holding company with a bunch of unrelated businesses. Aside from Twitter, that can't be further from the truth. Cheap rockets let SpaceX launch their own Starlink satellites for next to nothing. Starlink then brings in piles of cash. That cash pays to build their giant new rocket and their AI projects, and those in turn make launching even cheaper, which loops right back to the beginning. Round and round it goes, each part making the other stronger. Plenty of companies do one of these things. Nobody else has all of them locked together like this in a beautiful ecosystem.
Number four, their giant new rocket Starship opens doors nobody else can. And that's just a fact. Starship is a massive, fully reusable rocket that can haul about a 100 tons into space at once and cut the cost of getting there by up to 99%. When reaching space gets that cheap, a whole pile of stuff that used to be pure science fiction all of a sudden suddenly makes real business sense. Building factories in orbit, setting up bases on the moon, going to Mars, even flying people halfway around the world in under an hour. Starship is the thing that makes those far-off ideas into what could be one day actual money-making businesses. Now, I actually think a lot of their timelines are probably way too short. However, this company owns the trajectory here. There's nobody even close. So, if you are bullish on these areas, there's really not many alternatives.
Five, they're combining AI and space to fix the biggest problem in AI right now. SpaceX includes XAI along with some of the largest supercomputers on the planet. And their plan from here is very, very wild. Starting around 2028, they want to put millions of AI computers in orbit. Data centers in space sound like something that's really pie in the sky. However, you have to consider that SpaceX already has some 10,000 satellites in space. Many of them have a lot of the components that you would need to have a data center in space, like beaming information down to Earth, external and internal energy that is also renewable, and the ability to launch them and operate them remotely in continuity. You could already argue that some of their satellites in space are kind of like data centers.
Six, the US government simply can't do without them. SpaceX has more than $20 billion in contracts with NASA, the military, Space Force, and the intelligence agencies. They fly American astronauts up to the space station. They launch the country's defense and space and spy satellites. Put simply, the United States now needs this company to reach space at all. And a customer like that doesn't walk away and can't easily be replaced. This is a national security risk. And most importantly, SpaceX has such a massive head start and competitive moat and now massive funding that it's going to be almost impossible for anybody that's specifically trying to compete against them to win. The moat is insane. And in fact, a lot of the small companies in the space economy are actually not really competing with them, but are made possible in the first place because of the road and the overall pathway that SpaceX has set. And I do think that they're going to be acquisition targets for SpaceX. And I think that you're going to see SpaceX go shopping.
Number one, they're now sitting on a mountain of cash. They just pulled in $85 billion. That by itself is enough to buy almost any smaller company in the entire space worldwide outright in straight cash without even blinking. Second, and this is the big one, their stock is now basically a second form of money. When a company is public, it can pay for acquisitions using its own shares instead of cash. And because SpaceX shares now trade on the open market every day, whoever they're buying can take those shares and turn them into cash whenever they want. Before the IPO, getting paid in private SpaceX stock was awkward; you couldn't easily sell it. Now, it's about as good as cash. That makes SpaceX a far more attractive buyer than it was a week ago. Third, because the stock is valued so richly, that stock money is incredibly powerful. When your own shares are worth over $2 trillion, you can buy a whole company by handing over a relatively tiny slice of yourself. Fourth, they've already started doing it. Last year, before they were even public, SpaceX agreed to buy around $19 billion of wireless spectrum from a company called EchoStar and paid for a big chunk of it with SpaceX stock. Also swallowed Musk's XAI in an all-stock deal worth about a quarter of a trillion dollars. So, none of this is hypothetical. They've already done this again and again. Buying companies with their own shares is already core to how SpaceX operates. And now that the stock is public and easy to sell, they could do it faster and bigger than ever.
So, who might they actually buy? Well, I did some digging into the different parts of the supply chain here, and I tried to find some areas where other companies and just straight-up buying them could be advantageous to SpaceX. Still number one is spectrum, the number one prize. This is the clearest one because they're already doing it. Spectrum is just the airwaves that carry wireless signals. And SpaceX needs as much of it as it can get to beam phone service straight from its satellites down to your phone. This is even more so true if they want to build data centers in space. The likeliest targets, I'd say, Globalstar, ticker symbol GSAT. They own spectrum and already power the emergency SOS feature on iPhones. A very natural fit here. EchoStar, again, they could buy more of this, ticker SATS. They've already sold SpaceX a chunk and still hold more. SpaceX could simply just keep buying and acquire it in total. ViaSat, ticker symbol VSAT, a satellite internet company sitting on a big stockpile of global airwaves and customers. Their main rival in phone-to-satellite is SpaceMobile. This is the boldest idea on the list. AS basically SpaceX's main competitor at connecting regular phones directly to satellites, and buying them would erase the competition and hence SpaceX their technology and spectrum in one shot. The catch, while AS is tied up with big phone carriers like AT&T and Verizon, and a deal this size would draw heavy scrutiny from regulators. Maybe Elon Musk will be able to leverage his relationship or whatever the relationship is currently with President Trump and the administration. However, nonetheless, this could be something that courts sue for years over. Three, part suppliers to pull the supply chain in-house. SpaceX loves owning its entire production line because it lets them cut costs and move faster. So, smaller companies that build the pieces of satellites and spacecraft make for easy, bite-sized targets. The companies that I would say maybe Redwire, ticker symbol RDW, as you know, they make components and infrastructure that go on spacecraft. MDA Space, ticker symbol MDA, build satellites and space robotics. Filtronic, ticker symbol FLTCF, already a supplier into the Starlink network. This is a tiny, cheap bolt-on. It would be easy for them to acquire them. And then in terms of data and the moon, if you want to round out the overall space empire here, here are some of the less obvious ones, but they would fit into the overall SpaceX acquisition strategy that I see playing out. Planet Labs, ticker symbol PL, and Spire, ticker symbol SPIR, both sell data gathered from space, which SpaceX could bundle into its defense and government offerings. Intuitive Machines, another one, ticker symbol LUN, they build moonlanders, which would slot right into SpaceX's own lunar and Mars plans. Now, of course, if SpaceX is rumored or is in direct confirmed talks with any of these companies over the coming quarters, well, obviously that could cause a massive rally, rally towing any of their share prices. So, it's important to follow what SpaceX is doing and understand their overall strategies as we get more and more information here. Maybe I'm wrong and SpaceX doesn't start acquiring. However, I could see why it makes a lot of strategic sense for them. And you could say, well, all these companies have run up so much, but again, SpaceX would just buy them with their own shares. SpaceX right now is a massive, multi-trillion dollar whale that can acquire a lot of the little areas of the supply chain that would make sense.
Now, one of the problems with basically every space stock, though, is the big D-word, the evil D-word, dilution. Since the vast majority of space stocks, both big and small, are funding primarily through selling of shares. Well, that means that long-term, you have quite the crazy headwind. The ones that are going to do well are going to be the companies that either get acquired by SpaceX, are the ones that have direct partnerships with SpaceX, are the ones that have enough cash on their balance sheet to dilute minimally, and or the companies that are going to be diluting but also have enough revenue and real long-term potential that the dilution will be overshadowed by all the extra value creation. If you want to play ETFs, there's a lot of options out there for you.
So anyways, if you bring it all together, SpaceX itself, explosive near-term setup from that tiny float and the coming forced index buying, but a valuation that still has a long way to actually earn itself, and I think you're going to see this company fall quite a lot as the float gets more and more unlocked. I think you're probably going to find a floor higher than a lot of people think. I would be very shocked if this company finds a floor that's below $1 trillion. However, I'd also be shocked if it could hold $2 trillion or $1.5 trillion. So, that's my take on it. We'll see what happens. I'd say the play right now isn't buying SpaceX shares, but it's actually looking for the next acquisition target and even playing some of the moves in terms of the rumor runs on that. And then long-term, the biggest opportunity is going to be when SpaceX actually finds its dysphoria lows and the publicity cycle has aged and all of a sudden you're starting to find the real deals on a company that's going to be generational in every sense of the word and has already been generational.
Anyways, I hope this video is useful for you. Let us know in the comment section down below your take on SpaceX, what you're going to be doing, your opinion. We love hearing from you. It's very interesting. Anyways, have a great rest of your day.