Transcription
I think we're live. Welcome in, guys.
We are live on YouTube. Welcome everybody to our Wednesday webinar. Huge, huge topic tonight talking about comping land. Um, how we do it accurately, different tools we use, everything around that. Um, excited to get rolling here.
Yep. We're going to do it in 30 minutes. Show you guys how to comp land. We've mentioned before this is the hardest thing to do in this business. It's one of the hardest things to do is comping land uh consistently and accurately, right? It's one thing comping, but doing it right and projecting a correct sale price. It gets very difficult. Uh, so, it's always a big topic, guys. If you guys are experienced, it's really good to uh you can continue to learn and we're going to we're going to try to get it to both beginners and and experienced people here, Ron.
Yeah, I'm I'm excited for this. Um, let's get a question of the day in here, guys. Hopefully, everybody's doing well.
Question of the day. As you guys come in here. Um, let's get a question of the day. Dan, what are you thinking?
Uh, let's see. Comping land. Um, so evaluating deals, comping. What do you guys think? What's a good question for comping? I'm going to check uh, make sure our text went out. I think my text went out. I think I saw one. I didn't get anything.
Give it a second here. Um, all right. Get a question of the day, Dan.
Yeah, I'm thinking, um, let's do I I'm just curious. Uh, if you guys were to be given a random property right now, a random piece of land in the US, how confidently can you figure out what the price is going to be on that piece of land? How confidently can you comp it? Random piece of land in Alabama, Kentucky, New York. How confidently can you guys comp that piece of land and give me an expected value? So, it's more of a confidence comping question here. One through 10. We'll do 10. I can give you the price to the dollar and one being I have no idea what I'm looking at. I have no idea what numbers to even send. Does that make sense? One to 10 confidence.
I like that. And Ron is making sure these texts got out. For some reason, these texts don't get out lately, huh?
Let's see. Give it a minute here. Yeah. Get your guys questions in there. Scale 1 to 10, how confident are you in comping land? If I were to give you a random parcel right now in California, New York, and in Texas, how confident are you? One to 10. DJ said five. Karen said three. Five. Seven. Three. Yeah. So, five. Seven's experience. Nine. So, you know what you're doing. Seven's. Seven. You feel very good. Same as you, John Schmidt. One BNO liquidation 10. All right. Rex Ammed Ahmed is also a 10. Couple tens in here. Wow. I use Zillow to comp. Yep. We'll go over what we use as well. We use Zillow also. We use a few different things. Very good. Got that straightened around.
Yeah, that's crazy. We have some tens. A lot of high numbers in here. Combination.
It's definitely a learned skill and for you guys who are tens that's awesome. Um, especially rural America when you're talking about like where the gaps come in and because when you get more rural everything like that like it becomes more difficult to comp there's less comps everything like that. Um, make sure we get to these questions. I know I saw I think John should I avoid I'm just going to get to this question real fast before I miss it later. Should I avoid northern states going into the winter? So what John is asking is we're about to get a bunch of snow. Wisconsin, M Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, uh, all those New York, all those states. Like John's asking, should I not target those states? Should I not try to acquire land there? It it can take more time to sell land up in the northern states during the winter. That being said, I believe it's one of the better times to acquire land to get really good deals. I I don't personally turn off marketing to those states in those areas. Um, your days on market are going to increase without a doubt. But that being said, you can build some really good equity and deals these times. All right, I'm going to pull up land portal here. I'm going to share my screen, Dan. We're going to get into comp. We're going to kind of I think walking through is kind of the best thing for stuff like this. Like we're talking about like we're trying to show you guys how to comp plan. Like, all right, let's show you how we comp plan everything like that. Who do you pick your states? We've done a lot, Anthony. I'm assuming what Who do you pick your states?
Is that what you're saying, Ron?
Yeah, I was reading his comment.
All right. Um, another one. It said, "Please do it on Redf Fin." Yeah, we we sometimes use Red Fin. I used to use it a lot. They've made some land changes. Uh, not for the good lately. That makes it almost unusable for land. I trying to think of what it was I was using it the other day again and oh it doesn't show Oh, it does show acreage there. What doesn't it show?
I'm not a fan of Red Fin. I It's not even like the data. It's the the
It's just not very user friendly in my opinion compared to Zillow, honestly. It just takes longer to do the same thing in my opinion. There are some things in Red Fin that are good. So, how do we pick the states? So, we we've done a lot of like county selection uh episodes in the past, Anthony, that we can we've done YouTube lives on them. So, our like if if it was the elevator pitch like where do I do this business? The number one place we do this business is two to three counties removed from main metro areas. We like to be in rural America. Let's go to comping though, Dan. I'm just going to scroll into an area. We're going to find a piece of land and then we're going to try to find comp. We're going to try to comp it. Let's just go.
And uh real quick, just a little Redin tip. I found out what I was looking at the other day. So, they took off acorage. So, when you're looking at sold comps from that list view where it shows all the property squares, you can't see the acreage anymore. So, it almost makes it unusable for land, but keep going around.
That's That's yeah, that's not great. Um I don't know what county we're in, but we're going to pull up a piece of land in here. We're going to just look for a vacant piece of land. Not too big, not too small, just kind of a normal piece of land. I don't I think I'm in I'm in Jackson County, Ohio.
Yeah. Get rid of these names.
What you say?
Get rid of these owner names.
How do I do that? All right, cool. Looks like the text went out. People are popping in here. All right, let's just go. There's a lot of options here, huh? Yeah. And I'm going to uh since a lot of people are rolling in, guys, we're talking all things comping land. We're picking a property right now on land portal and we're going to see try to figure out the estimated value through different tools, uh Zillow, comp reports, different things, right? We're going to show you the method when someone submits a deal for funding to us. What we look at uh is the first thing or we get a deal back what we look at. We're going to take you through step by step. But as a meas metric on where you guys stand for the new people just joining who haven't put it in yet, on a scale of 1 to 10 because I want to know where we're at as a group. On a scale of 1 to 10, what's your confidence level on comping land? If I give you a property right now in Texas, in California, in Montana, in New York, in Georgia, how confident are you that you can accurately price that on a scale 1 to 10? One being not confident at all, the least confident, and 10 being I can give you to the dollar amount.
It's a good question. All right, so I just chose this piece of land. So, what you can see here, it's 6.3 acres. Um, we're in Jackson County, Ohio. This is pretty rural. This is the type of land we like doing deals. Like, can you do land closer? It's probably four counties outside of Cincinnati. It's probably a couple counties outside of Columbus. Three counties outside of Columbus. Um, it's actually really sloped in. We're going to still do this. It says sloped area. So, what what we like to do first, like the first thing when you're looking at comp land is, okay, let's look at the physical characteristics of the land. How sloped is it? Is it wet? Does it have any features that make it better? Uh, flood plane. Am I missing anything? Legal access. So, checking off the box real fast, guys. This has clear road access. There's a house built right next door, which is a good sign. Um, but let's look at the other things. So, on Lamport, I'm on Land Portal. There should be a link in the description. There's a free trial. Uh, there's a few ways to look at slope. And I wanted to choose an area with some slope because I think it's important when you're evaluating land. So, one way is hitting the contour lines on the bottom right. And they should pop up. So, now you can see the contour lines. These are 20 ft of slope. So, this is relatively sloped to this property and it's sloping up and then it looks like it goes back down. This section right here appears to be like the peak. And if you hit 3D view, we're going to see this and see the actual slope. It's going to be pretty slow, but like I said, that's going to go up and down.
Goes up and then down. Our hope is we have some buildable area, which I'm guessing based on this uh we have some buildable area at the front of the land. So, you can look at the contour lines, you can look at 3D. You also on land portal which no one else nowhere else has is the show buildability and what this is this is AI and it's basically looking for a cluster area of what it views as buildable uh slope on the land. So we're going to hit show build buildability here. For me personally I'm going to treat this land Dan. What you would do down the line is get drone photographers get it get boots on the ground and actually have someone come look at the land to make sure it's feel pretty good about it. I'm going to assume this front area is buildable.
Click the property next door and let's see what percent. So, we're 4% uh flat here or buildability here. What's this?
Let's compare this one. This one, this is 16% and the middle cluster is some general areas right there. Um I think we're going to be fine at this front somewhere. Dan, I I feel relatively good. If you want to even look at it more detail, we're not going to do this here today. Actually, I'm gonna um
No, we're not Don't do that today. But there's a slope report as well which has a lot more information. So what we did, we did contour lines for slope. We did 3D for slope. And we looked at the buildability as well for slope. What else did I say? I said wetlands. I said flood plane. So what you're going to do in the bottom right and again there's multiple ways you can do this. Uh I'm just going to hit flood plane. Nothing popped up. I'm just going to take that off. I'm gonna hit wetlands. Nothing popped up. And what what you can also do is scroll down here. And this is actually in your data as well. Wetlands coverage, FEMA coverage. Um, so that's good. Like the only concern landwise is the slope. This is a really solid piece of land here. I'm going to assume this is buildable at the front. Obviously, if I was buying a piece of land like this, I would do further due diligence on the slope to make sure that we can actually it's flat enough at the front.
Look what the neighbor did. Yeah, that's a good point, Greg.
Yeah, it's a it's a very similar slope on the neighbor. The neighbor has 16% buildability versus ours is 4%. But it's very very similar. And we have a lot of slope under I like that our average slope's 19 because that's that shows because we have a lot under uh 10% like 15% under 10%. So I think we're going to have something in the front there.
And when we're comping out land, like we're not going to get an exact price. I want to be able to get a range within five $7,000 for something like that. Um, but what Okay, so the land checks out pretty good. It's not the best land ever. It's got some slope, but it's pretty solid land in my opinion. So, when we go to comping, there's a few things you can do. So, the first place I like to look is right here. So, this is our land portal estimate, and this is saying based on AI, it's saying this property is worth $58,000. It has some comps down here that it's using to rationalize that price. See if I can fix that right now. I looked at that last time. I forgot.
What are you looking at?
Um, I think I can fix that, DJ. Sorry about that. I saw an option for that somewhere. Um I just can't fix it during stream. Um but uh okay, so this is the land portal estimate, but you can also pull a much more detailed comp report. And this is not something like, okay, Landportal says it's selling for $58,000 and this is price per acre. This is estimated price. Um Landportal says $58,000. I'm going to assume it's $58,000. You got to look deeper into that. I'm going to actually pull this AI comp report. I'm gonna hit send request and we're going to pull that up. While that is coming up, I'm going to pull up Zillow. Do you have any concerns with the land in
Uh just the slope? That's about it. But I think it'll be fine.
All right, let's pull up Jackson County, Ohio. We have what is it? 6.3 6.285 acres. I'm going to pull up our comp reports here. All right. And this one is complete. So, what I'm going to hit I'm going to hit view. Tell me if I block anything with our faces right there, Dan.
And then I would also do the uh the manual method after. Yeah, but we can confirm it.
Yeah, we'll come back to that. All right. So, this one because so what we saw on this card, this can have some delay in there. This is going to be a brand So, this might be delayed by two or three days. This is a brand new comp report that literally pulls, you can update this at any point. Um, and it literally pulls the comp based on that second based on comps that happened as soon as today. This one is saying $61,000. Pretty similar. It's like 5% above, whatever. It's showing the most important comps.
It's mapping all these comps, seeing where it is. If for whatever if you want to go and look at like, okay, this is the number one comp. This is the best comp that it views, all you have to do is hit view property. like, okay, here is the uh here is the comp it is viewing as the most important comp. So, let's pull this up and just see what this looks like because I'm kind of curious here. Let's see if it's sloped as well. That's what I'm kind of interested in as well. So, this one is kind of sloped.
It's very sloped. Yeah.
Yeah. There you go, Greg. Yeah. So, this is a sloped property as well. And if we look here, this is relatively close. I believe our property and what you can do on the comp report. This actually tells you how far away the property is. 6.78 miles. It just sold a month and a half ago. This is a very, very, very solid comp. Sometimes all you need to comp land in is one really good comp, obviously.
Yeah. But also, it's machine learning, too. So, we can't we we don't have the ability with that comp report. it will show you some of the ones it's using, but some of the ones that it's using also that one it's probably using a lot of because it's so recent and it's similar land and slope and everything. Uh, but then also sometimes it it will only use one less than 1% like if it doesn't like it, but it'll put it on there anyways because it thinks it's kind of relevant for some reason. Y so I just want to throw that out there.
So we're just north of Oak Hill off this highway to get into Jackson. So when you are doing this like we want to when we're pulling up on Zillow and we're looking at comps, we want to look in this general region. This is really rural. So, there's not going to be a ton of comps, but I want to actually like Okay, yeah, we looked on our comp report, everything like that. I actually like looking in here and seeing what's going on. I'm going to hit satellite so I can see a little better. We have 6.3 acres. I'm going to go two to 10 and let's see what comps we get. I'm trying to find a price per acre. Like my goal for here is finding a price per acre. So, here's a six acre comp, Dan. That's a little concerningly low. Uh at $45,000. This is really close to ours, too.
Mhm.
It might have viewed it as an outlier. The comp report. Let's see what's going on with this property. This sold in May.
What are other comps? Oh, that's just in May. Yeah, that's a good comp.
Yeah. Let me keep scrolling on. Here's another six acre property for 45. see what's going on here. Again, that's why the AI comport, the land portal, estimate, everything. It is a tool. It is a resource. Uh, it's a great way to send blind offers out. It's a great way to start the conversation with sellers. But that being said, we always want to confirm what we're actually seeing. It It's machine learning, Greg. So, it's not just an average. It's never just an average. There's a combination of things. What I'm going to do here, guys, I'm actually pull up a different way that we can do this on here. So, what I'm going to do, I'm going to right click here. I'm going to open market research in a new tab.
And again, if you guys are not on Lampor, there's a free 7-day trial uh to get started. Or if you get started with the advanced plan, uh we can send you guys some free exports as well. Jackson County, Ohio. I need to get the APN here. So, this is just there's so many different ways. When we first started doing this business, Dan, it's like there's we just use Zillow. Like it was literally just using Zillow. Now there's 10 different ways to comp plan land, 10 different ways to look at slope, everything like that. I'm going to do radius and I'm going to do Okay, I'm looking for comps within Let's just do 12 miles. It's kind of far. And I'm going to do acreage. Let's go acreage four to eight. All right. So, what you can do when you're going through here, you can just hide these comps that are clearly outliers. 29,000 per acre, 20,000, 37 per acre. I'm just kind of looking at what's going on. So, if I click these, it's going to show me the actual picture on them for me. Dan 15,000 an acre. These are just overpriced.
This is also last uh 24 months, which is fine.
Yeah, just with this lack of comps. Let's go last 12 and see what happens. You might be right there. We actually have a decent amount of comps. Three miles away on 811. This property sold. This is the one. Did we see this one? This might be a We'll get to that question. Joyce, see what this property is. So, this property is seven acres, six miles away. Six acres. This is a tough one, man.
Mhm.
What do you guys think? Do you guys think it's going to sell? I'm curious your thoughts because for me, like, we obviously have some comps that we have some comps that are showing like mid50s. We have some comps that are showing uh much lower 50. We have some comps that are showing 45.
What's our average on there again on the manual?
Put your price. Put your price and uh what price do you think this property will sell for? You can put a range if you want. Just put a price on here. Curious. Put in the comments. What do you think this property we are comping out will sell for? 50K, 53K, 45K. What What does that number look like? Go ahead, Dan. What you say?
Yeah. What was the average of the comps that you had in there?
So, if you look on here, the average as we go through, let's just get uh distance. Let's hide some of these outliers again. So, we go here and we look at here. 3,000 is an outlier, 2,000 outlier, 1,000 outlier, 20,000 outlier, 15 and 17 are outliers. So, this puts us at uh Okay, this actually makes a lot of sense. is supposed to have 8 and 513 and 8 * 6 yeah is 50ish 4 6.3
For me I think it's going to be right in this like 52 to 54 range I know we haven't had many everyone there are a lot of tens in there Dan zero to 200k there we go and this exactly right here is why there's so much Why? This is the hardest thing to do in land flipping is evaluating the price of land. Um because like you can see guys, there's just okay like here's a 7 acre comp for 75 grand and then we have a 5acre comp for 30, then we have an eight for 65. Like it's just all over the place. and the ability learning how to comp land land is is the biggest gap in people being uh just the biggest gap in like the biggest learning gap I think Dan when people
Yeah, it's difficult and there's there this is three different things well first we do due diligence on the land like you guys saw we're just doing some making sure it's good land the road access the slope all that stuff it's not wet and then after that stage we go once we confirm the type of land it is we go on Zillow we look at Zillow we a comp report. We look at the comps and then we do the manual way and we kind of weigh the three to make decisions. Sean, so what would you give it?
Price.
Yeah, I think it's going to be like 53 something like that.
Mhm. What do you think? I I don't think the AI was like 58 something like that. I think that's a little high. There are some comps that are rationing that. Um just do steps to comping and we're I'm going to put everything we used on here, Dan. Let's just do that real fast. So, let's just go number one review land attributes on land portal. And we're going to do slope. And how we can do slope? We can do contour lines. We can do um 3D 3D buildability per uh clusters. Uh what's the slope report? The AI slope report. AI slope report. Is that anything else I'm missing there? Contour 3D. Uh Google Earth. Uh Google Street View. We didn't do that on this one.
Mhm.
Uh slope. U wetlands. Wetlands overlay on flood plane. road access. Just the visual eye test. Uh, your free land attributes. Um, what do you think next is, Dan? Pull the comp report or do Zillow?
Uh, Zillow.
Okay.
Well, I would pull comp report first probably and just look at it to give you a starting point because these things these things start to
Three
Like add up, right? We we gave it the eye test. There were some low 45 to 50 comps in there. Um the AI comp said it was what, like 58 or 60 or something around there. Uh and then we did the manual way which said it was 8,000 acre which puts it right at that for $50,000 mark as well. And you start to see these consistencies. Um and it gives you a really good idea of where where it's going to be. The data speaks after you do this. It's three touch points. Then for like on Zillow, start close to your property.
Yeah, Always zoom into your property.
We want the nearest possible like kind land first and then we spread out like okay maybe if you cannot find like kind land that is nearby. We just zoom out and you still can't you don't feel confident in your numbers zoom out a little more. But the best comp is that like for example we just look at our property like what's the best comp that's not ours. What's the best comp? It would be this property. It would be this property. Very similar acreages next door.
Well, the best comp would be our property if it sold in the last year.
True.
On the market and you want to get as close to your property as possible. like your target property selling right now today in lifetime would be the best thing that for your data as as possible. So you get as close to that as possible with time with distance with size with land type. You want the closest thing to your land as possible. Not just distance size everything.
John said he'd list that 499. I love that number. I chance like you get blown up at that number and you end up selling for 52 53. You get three four interested buyers. They love the price. Think that's a really I I love that.
Yeah, really solid. What questions you guys got? This was the process.
All right, Anything else we're missing on here, Dan? Market research comp in review land portal. Market research manual comp in. Yeah, I like that. Uh, yeah, this is really it, guys. Take a screenshot, whatever. Like, this is it's not that complicated. It just takes practice. Like, you guys p we just I just pulled up a random piece of land. It wasn't like I uh this is a like you just it takes practice to do this. Sometimes you're going to be more stumped than others. This was a really tough one. Like this in terms of difficulty if it's 0 to 10, this is like a 8.5 difficulty comping.
Well, we got a good number. Like I I feel good about our low 50s number.
Yeah. Low to mid-50s. Maybe you get blown up, but I like John's idea going a little below and trying to get blown up and seeing what happens. Sell it quick, turn your money, and do the same thing over and over again.
I'm going to stop sharing my screen. We had a few questions to get to, guys. We have about five more minutes. Get your questions in here, guys. Like, if you have questions about how you learn that, like it it is about practice in terms of this, but um there are ways to expedite what
What if there's a trailer or a house on the land on ours that we're comping.
Yeah, it just it you got to determine does this add value. it. I rarely say, unless it's trash and like tires and stuff like that, I rarely say even if it's a beat up old trailer, I rarely say that it is going to hurt the value of land. I just haven't seen that historically. But if there's a good one, like a usable mobile home, like you want to look at kind of mobile home comps. It's difficult though.
Yeah,
It's hard to find like kind comps. Why is it difficult if you have a torn like halfusable mobile home? because there's not comps for that,
right?
All right, let's see. Hold on. Joyce had a good question. So, we find home builder construction companies looking for land to build and sell it to them. No, some people do that. We do not do that strategy, Joyce. What we do is we we find deals like we are looking for land deals. I don't care if I have an end buyer. What you do to sell land is by posting it on the market. If you like, for example, that $50,000 piece of land that we just comped out, if I get that under contract for $30,000, I don't care if I have an end buyer lined up or not. I feel very confident that I can make $20,000 on that deal. It is about PE. It is about being able to comp land and finding finding sellers for the right price and then having a margin within there. Mhm. Yeah. That's uh we Yeah. Finding it at the right price, you acquire it, you know, you know what it's worth, and we sell it to anybody who wants it essentially. We put it on the MLS. We sell to anybody. Sometimes builders buy it. Usually not. Usually it's families looking for land to start to have a house, whatever it is. We put it everywhere.
Really good question. Uh if it's a lot of wetlands, do you kill the deal? Not necessarily. Uh if it's wetlands, it matters layer too how much of the property. It definitely hurts the value for the most part. But that being said, you would just want to get it a little cheaper.
Yes, We we remove wetlands using the wetlands filter. So we'll only target properties with less than 40% wetlands, things like that, uh to not to prevent that from happening. But when it does happen and say you get a property back with 40% even when you use the filter, uh because you went up to 40%, it depends where that 40% is. Is that the front of the property? Is that the back of the property? Does it take up the middle? Is there still room to build? There's lots of questions that go into that, but it does hurt in general.
Is there a way to look at an area and see price per acre at different size acreages? Say 1 to two, 2 to 5, 5 to 10, 20 to 50. Are you saying for sale? If you're saying for it's hard to if you're saying arbitrageing like for things that are currently on the market, it's difficult. I'm not saying you can't do it. That's how I'm kind of reading that.
It's good for subdividing. I'm
Like fly through these. Arbitrageing is good for subdividing.
Correct. Uh Nick, you got to get lots of reps into correctly comp land. Absolutely. It does take reps. Mason said, "Is that land had only been owned for a year or two? Could you still make 20k if you get it at the right price?" Like some people just are in a pinch. They bought a property. They whatever. Maybe they inherited a property that just someone bought two. I don't know. But uh yeah, you always can advertise a duck hunters. There you go. Hardly have money for mail. What approach do you suggest? Uh, texting,
Texting, texting, texting.
Yep. Yep. Yep.
Why would you say the land Why would you say land under contract for
Not sure what that means.
For that property, I'd try to get that under contract for like 25 $30,000. Uh, I can buy it at that price. I can get funding at that price. I could try to double close. A lot of different options if you have margin in the deal. Uh, would you be hiring MLS broker to sell that parcel? No. For me, no. I just did a episode, guys, on YouTube. It's on this channel. Uh, I think it came out on Monday, I want to say, all about why I'm not using especially for cheaper properties. Properties that are selling for $50,000 are not great properties for brokers. Yep. Skip, trace, cold call. Like that. Uh, Nick, awesome. We got to end it there, guys. We do have a members call. What links are in the description there, Dan? Can you see? Uh, LAMP. No, I can't see, but I'm going to I know that the LAN portal is I'm pointed up now. Lamp portal, 7-day free trial. Get your comping tools, everything that we went through uh for free. Get it for 7 days. And then, uh, consultation if you guys want to learn more about land flipping and how to start your career, take it to the next level.
Absolutely. Yeah. Schedule a consultation. If you guys want to learn more, land investing.com/ consultation.