Transcription
Let's talk about eight stocks I bought today. And that's a lot of stocks, okay? And we'll talk about the amounts and all that good stuff in just a moment.
So, first stock up here might surprise some people. I bought Meta today. And the reason it might surprise people is obviously I have so much invested in Meta already, right? Public count is what, a million dollar position or whatever, right? I own other portfolios as well. But Meta, I just can't look at Meta at these prices and be like, "I'm not buying any." You know, could Meta go down to $515? Sure. Does it matter to me? No, because I'm focused on where the stock goes over the next three, five, seven years. And I believe Meta long-term is a $2,000 stock. $2,000. So, if Meta goes $515, $415 over the next 36 months, I don't care. I'll buy more shares. It's irrelevant. It's irrelevant. Okay, that's the first one I bought here. And you know, we spoke about that one already extensively.
PayPal, number two of eight here. PayPal's just a very attractive valuation on the stock. I mean, we're talking forward P on the stock somewhere in the 10 to 11 range. They've got nice revenue growth. Revenue growth has actually been accelerating recently. The earnings per share is very strong. They're buying back a ton of shares. Heck, they seem like they're going to buy back the whole company. The whole market cap's in the low $50 billion range right now. You know, I like I like PayPal a lot. Alex Chris is doing a good job running the company. It's not the most exciting stock. It's not the 20% plus revenue growth story that like a Meta is, for instance. But it's just a very undervalued stock and I got to buy it. Like, as simple as that, right?
Elf on a Shelf. This has been a high growth company over the years. Recently the growth rates haven't been that great, but they're going to get back to very nice growth in my opinion here in '26. And then I think '27 you'll see, I mean, in the back half of '26 you'll likely see margins start to really move up. Uh, it's possible in the front half of the year too, but uh, second half I'm pretty dang confident like margins will also move up considerably with great growth rates and you'll see earnings per share accelerate significantly, right? So now what happens with tariffs, all that stuff like that, just is what it is. Like they, you know, they mitigate that stuff. They, they, they work with that stuff. It is what it is. Okay. So Elf on a Shelf, uh, you know, love it.
Next one up here, number four of eight, Celsius. Celsius Holdings energy drink company. Um, you know, Alani deals obviously been done for quite a while now. Uh, they got the distribution with Pepsi. Like the company just does a phenomenal job. Like, absolutely amazing. Um, I don't know what else to say about it. The earnings per share, you're going to see that skyrocket um throughout '26 and '27. Uh, the revenue growth will moderate in '27, but '26 is going to be a huge revenue growth year for the company. And they have massive international expansion opportunity over the next 5 years. And they have, I think, a pretty significant opportunity to bring those margins up over the next five years as well. So Celsius, I really like that one.
Number five of eight, ADBE, Adobe. Hated stock on Wall Street. No one wants to own this stock, right? Meanwhile, the business gets better. Look at the revenue growth of the company, right? Look at the earnings per share of the company. Look at the margins of the company. So I don't think people understand Adobe. No. No. I'm very confident people don't understand Adobe on Wall Street. And I believe over the next couple years they're going to understand it. All Adobe has to do is keep putting up the numbers. Keep putting up the numbers. And then I do think it would be helpful if the management team explained the business better and why it's almost impossible to compete with them. If they did that, I think the stock would reflect that very quickly. And so Adobe, I'm building that one out. Uh, my plan is to build this one as significantly as I can realistically uh, here in the first quarter of the year, essentially, 'cause I actually don't think the whole year will be bad for Adobe stock. Uh, I think the first quarter is rough, but after that, I'm actually very bullish on Adobe for the remainder of the year and obviously bullish on Adobe for the next several years. So I just need to build out that position as quickly as possible.
Number six of eight, Salesforce, CRM. Uh, kind of an Adobe situation. Like the earnings per share is expected to skyrocket for the company. Solid revenue growth, like high single digits. Agent Force continues to take off. They got the acquisition going through. Actually, I think I, my belief is revenue growth is actually going to go to low double digits here very shortly. Another stock like Adobe, just keep putting up your numbers, man, and it will all take care of itself in the end.
Next one. This might surprise some people. AMD. I think I'm addicted to buying AMD stock. H. I mean, the next several years is just so exciting. I still don't think Wall Street totally got it in regards to AMD and um, I think they're starting to get it. And so that one I've got, I mean, I've got seven, you know, well over seven figures across my portfolios invested in the stock. And so my plan with AMD is, you know, if that one gets that $400, $500 level, I'll probably unload some level of shares. Um, but if they, if they report better numbers, I like the bottom line is I believe AMD is on its way to joining the trillion dollar boys club. Okay? Right now, this is market caps in the $300 billion range. I believe they're on their way over the next few years to join, join the trillion dollar boys club. And so for me, I like, I can't, I can't not buy the stock. I, I just like, I got to stop buying it though, right? I, I don't want to get too overexposed stock having seven figures plus in it, but, you know, had to buy it.
And then last stock I bought up here is American Express, number eight of eight. Just an easy peasy lemon squeezy stock to buy. I understand everything going on with, oh, is Trump going to limit credit card rates? I spoke about that recently in that whole deal in this video here. The market is setting up for an real move. I discussed that subject specifically. That's one of many subjects I discussed in this video here. So, if you want more opinion on that, watch that video. Um, I think [clears throat] I also featured American Express on five stocks to buy now, but I can't 100% remember that.
Okay. As far as the moves here, you can see them there. You know, um, yeah, you know, a lot of pretty much almost all of them were multi-thousand dollar moves in regards to buys. A lot of $5,000, $6,000 buys. And I'm looking forward to buying stocks on Friday as well.
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Alrighty, let's listen to some Wall Streeters on their perspectives on this market, stocks, all that good stuff. And um, yeah, we'll have some fun.
>> Closing bill. And he revisited what he told me several months ago about how he sees the backdrop right now. Listen, >> I'll never forget the the interview we had. We said, "This is the greatest investment environment I've ever seen." I still hold to that. >> You do? >> Yes. I think it's a great. But I think what you're going to see now is much more volatility. >> Okay. Much more volatility. And maybe we're seeing some of that, maybe some of it self-induced by the Trump administration. The the thing with Chair Powell obviously has made some people uneasy. What do you do in light of that and what could be a more volatile environment? >> Well, it won't take much to see volatility increase. We just had three straight years of double-digit growth in the S&P. Up 16% last year, 23% in 2024, and in 2023 we had 24%. So the expectations are high, the valuations are rich for the broader market overall, but the economy is gaining steam clearly at 5% in Atlanta Fed Tracker. Consumers are doing their thing. They're consuming AI. The momentum is still there. It's not going away. I do not believe 2025 will 2026 will go away. I do think also you're seeing massive productivity gains. This is the big change for me, Scott. I mean, we haven't seen numbers like this in decades. I mean, we were we were growing productivity like 1, 2%. 4.9% in the most recent quarter. Unit labor cost down 1.9%. That is very, very healthy. Um, and the productivity number is actually pretty good for inflation expectations. So, add it all up, double-digit earnings, going away from technology, though. That's where the expensive stocks are at. You see, clearly see the rotation happening. And I, and I'm there, you know that, and I'm adding to them. We're going to talk about some of the things that I have been adding to because I have conviction in the underlying strength of the economy. So, volatility increases, use it to your advantage and buy on dips. A >> Okay, so she makes a point about the market being rich, right? Listen, the market itself, okay, you can make that debate, but I'm just saying that there's a lot of undervalued opportunities in the market, right? Um, you look at some of these, you know, one year, two-year out forward P's here. You know, Meta is at a 20, CRM's at an 18, Adobe's at a 12, right? And look at next year's expected earnings per share growth of these companies. Look at the revenue growth of these companies, right? Um, like my opinion is like these, a lot of these stocks are just trading way too cheap. Like, sure, you could look at a Palantir, you could look at a Tesla and be like, "Oh man, so expensive, right?" Overvalued. Okay, that's not the whole market. Because Palantir is trading at a 200 whatever P ratio does not mean that is an indication that the whole market is like, "Oh, it's a massive bubble. It's crazy." It's like, no, like these companies are trading um, you know, depending on the company, like very cheap. Like, yeah, Palantir forward P looks crazy, 288. Yeah, Tesla looks crazy at 344, but that does not mean that's the whole market, you know? Like so you got to, you got to, you got to differentiate between some stocks that maybe have crazy valuations. You go to Oaklo and it's like, "Oh man, they're like a pre-revenue company trading at a crazy valuation." Okay, there's some of those stocks out there, but that's not the whole market. There's plenty of attractive stocks in this market right now. Um, you know, Google's ran pretty heavy, but I wouldn't call Google an expensive stock. You could make an argument that it's still very fair. Look at a stock like, look at uh Google McDougall, uh, Microsoft here. Like these stocks are not like super expensive. They're kind of at, I would call them like fair value. Like Google's at a fair value now. Microsoft's at a fair value. I wouldn't say they're overvalued though, right? If you want to pull up um Apple, we can pull up Apple here. Let's take a peek at Apple's forward P, you know, somewhere around, we can call it 30, 33. That's fair for Apple given that they should grow earnings per share at a double-digit clip. So, um, I can't really say they're overvalued. I can't, I can't say these big techs are undervalued though, but it's like fair value. So, you know, that's just my opinion. But let's say Microsoft, you know, was trading at a 24 forward 4P right now. You say this stock's very undervalued for one of the safest business models in the world with great growth. Like shouldn't be trading that cheap, right? Um, if Google was trading at 22 like it was last year for a lot of the year, like way too cheap. So yeah, that's my perspective. >> Do you believe uh what Rick Reer had to say again yesterday that this is the greatest investing environment? >> Greatest might be further than I would go, but I Rick is very bright and >> though you >> I wouldn't disagree [clears throat] with him materially on just the overall positive backdrop. You have deregulation with an occasional insane tweet. Um, that's really powerful. It's hard to quantify, but people are taking risks. Um, and people are going into new businesses and there's tons of M&A that you actually can quantify. It's a great uh last 12 months for M&A. You've got IPOs back. We'll get SpaceX maybe by the end of this year. I don't know. Is that a trillion dollar IPO? Maybe you'll even get OpenAI. Is that half a trillion, three-quarters? I have no idea. Like, you can't look at um a backdrop like this and say it's not a good environment. The real question is, are we already pricing in how good it is? And that's like the the main debate. But look, I listened to the JP Morgan call this morning, and I know we're going to get there in a second. Um, this is the CFO. Consumers and small businesses remain resilient, continue to monitor leading indicators. >> Before we go further here, uh, I will explain a risk to the market. He talked about SpaceX going public, right? Uh, talked about potentially OpenAI. Uh, Stripe could potentially go public at some point in time here. So, those are massive, um, massive companies that if they went public, they're actually a significant risk to the market. How? Why? Well, when you have those sorts of big IPOs like that, it can suck money out of other stocks because people want to buy, you know, the traders want to go to the momentum. They're like, "Oh, SpaceX is going to go crazy, right?" Um, OpenAI, like if Stripe goes public, those sorts of stocks, like, you know, it's kind of like a pile in. So you can get long-term investors to even pull money out of some stocks and kind of like creates this like vacuum out um of money. But a lot of the trader momentum starts to funnel into those type of stocks. So you where you actually see a lot of the biggest weakness many times can be other momentum related stocks, stocks that are kind of like hot stocks, right? Um, that kind of shorter term trader swing type money comes out of those. Those stocks actually decrease quite significantly in value the month leading up to those big IPOs and the money kind of gets ready to obviously funnel into the new IPOs, right? So, just something to keep in mind. >> Any signs of stress? Despite weak consumer sentiment, trends in our data are largely consistent with historical norms. We're not seeing deterioration. So, people are not happy with the price of things. We all get that. That's what the midterms are going to be about in a few months. But at the end of the day, they're spending with abandon. Delta is making more money in the front of the cap uh cabin than the entirety of the main cabin of the plane. It's K-shaped. It's this, it's that. In the end, revenues are going up. Profit margins will be 14, 15% this year for the S&P. Rates are either flat or maybe even lower. I don't know how you could argue with Rick materially that it's not a good backdrop to be making investments right now. Jimmy, you know that I'm glad Josh brought up the the Delta uh information. It it really is amazing when you look at it. The main cabin, okay, that every, everything below first in business class, was down 7% year-on-year. Premium, which is first in business, was up 9%. >> Yeah. >> That screams K-shape. Uh, it represents what the greater economy has looked like. Not commenting on the Delta number specifically here, but what about the backdrop? You do have this, I think it's fair to say, this self-induced volatility. Now you when you had the self-induced volatility of Liberation Day that was short-lived because parts of the market got unsettled to the degree that the administration became unsettled looking at the market. >> Yeah. >> Becoming unsettled and the prospect of it getting even worse. Some are warning that the attack on Powell will backfire on those who want cuts. Obviously, there's the issue of what the bond market may do. Stiffel says the S&P is going to consolidate around 7,000. Why? Because the quote emotional security blanket of rate cuts looks frayed. Schwab talks about today, bye-bye to rate cuts. And then you have Wolf. We see several triggers on the horizon that could potentially spike bond volatility higher, including further worries about monetary policy and Fed independence. What do you think? >> Um, I don't think we need rate cuts. And I know there's a perception out there that the stock market is counting on rate cuts. I think that the market can fly without rate cuts because if we don't get them, it's for the right reasons. It's because the economy is growing. Stephanie, you just went through what the Atlanta Fed GDP is tracking. 5% for the fourth quarter and in the third quarter it was 4%. We've got unemployment at 4.4%. And we got CPI today, which was really quite benign. I mean, I think the core was 2.7, maybe it was 2.6% year-over-year. I'm perfectly fine with that. Now, I'm not saying we won't get rate cuts because it's too early to determine that, but I really don't think we need it. We've got tremendous fiscal stimulus coming from the budget bill. And what if, as is uh presumed to be the case, the Supreme Court overturns tariffs? What if they mandate that the tariffs have been collected have to be refunded and another $200 billion comes flooding into uh the market? You know, uh Josh said, and I agree with him that, you know, the good news may be priced into the markets, but there may be an absolute waterfall of money coming into the economy that will goose this market and this economy higher. I don't think we need rate cuts. >> You didn't address though the the issue, Powell. No, no. The the issue of Powell and and Fed independence. >> Yep. Let's hit it. >> I don't What do you think? I mean, is it a binary binary deal? The market's trying to look past it, not necessarily believing that it's going to go anywhere. However, if it's a PAL indicted, market >> does something really bad. Pal not, then the market just blows it off. I mean, think about it. I think that the comments that were made yesterday by Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, Robert Rubin, and everybody else were right on the money that in the long run, this does make us look like an emerging market economy. But I stressed it just there, in the long run. This is a market right now that's focused on the short term of everything that I just said, profit growth, economic growth. In the long run, it is a very bad idea to bring the chairman of the Federal Reserve under investigation because what it does is it says to anybody else on the board, whether you're the chair or governor or Federal Reserve Bank, that if you don't tow the line, you are likely to be the subject of an investigation or fining. What I just said. What I just said is ignoring it for now. Short term, the market is focused on economic growth, profit growth, low unemployment, stimulus, potentially tariff rebates. But in the long run, this will matter. >> He's not going to be around in the spring. He leaves. So why are we even Because some are suggesting that he may not leave altogether, >> even if he doesn't and that could be an issue because then the administration wouldn't get the seat that they so covet >> to further in at least in their minds guarantee. >> You're going to have you're going to have a more dished. You're going to have a more dovish Fed. There's no question about it. >> You don't care about this issue at all? At all. Not at all. I just want them to get rates right. We talked about this last last time I was on Closing Bell. I mean, I I just think they haven't gotten it right in so many years in terms of in terms of rate cuts or rate raises. I mean, so to me, >> the Fed >> Yeah. >> I understand like what do you mean they haven't gotten it right in so many years? The whole reason why you are bullish in part on the the picture right now is because you can make the argument that they may have gotten it wrong at the beginning, but they've certainly gotten it right since inflation's low and the economy is good. What more do you want? >> And I think that they can cut because we don't have a housing cycle. We need housing to recover. And if you don't have a housing cycle, you don't have an auto cycle. And it's remarkable that we're growing 5% without those two big components. You need those two to actually recover. And lower rates is the only thing that's going to help that. >> Joe, monetary policy is easier, easy. It's getting easier around the world. To Rick's comment as far as this being the greatest investment environment from an asset allocation perspective, he's 100% right. >> And they are the largest asset manager in the world. >> And in 2025, we had a paradigm shift. You had the opportunity to invest in what was underappreciated and non-appealing type of assets, whether it was investing in developed international emerging market, emerging market debt, or back here in small caps. So that opportunity creates a much healthier environment as it relates to volatility. There's different types of volatility. The volatility environment that's most challenging is when capital exits because when capital exits the market due to volatility, it doesn't return. So, is this the greatest investing environment of all time? The answer is without question, yes. What, why would I say that? Well, I, there's no time period you can ever go back to where as an individual investor from the retail side, an average Joe, you and me, right? Uh, there's never been a time period where you had as many great tools out there to research companies to find out information. Uh, you know, you want to know what a business model does, you know, and how it works. Like it's never been easier um, you know, historical numbers in regards to like it's never been easier in any time in history to get like information like that to make you uh make an informed decision, right? It's never been easier to get news in relation to companies. Additionally, there's never been probably less intelligent time from people looking at stocks from the Wall Street side. Um, I mean, they just flip out over everything. Like an analyst comes out and downgrades a stock, sells off 10%. You know, and uh all of a sudden they're like, "Oh, we did some channel checks and this is great." And the stock goes up 7%. And it's like, you didn't already know that. And so I think there's also a lot of wasted money out there on the Wall Street side that pushes stocks up to way too high of prices and gives you great opportunities to sell and pushes other stocks down way too much from way too much selling pressure that gives you incredible buying opportunities that um, you know, you just never got these sorts of opportunities in the past. Like this is a whole different level. So, also the ability to, you know, buy stocks so easily now on your phone, you know, wherever you're at. Like, I mean, I just, there's no doubt this is the greatest investing environment we've ever seen. But, it's going to get better. Like, you know, over the next 10, 20, 30, 50 years. But, um, as of right now, this is the best, the best we ever had. So, um, you know, in regards to market, is this the cheapest market? Absolutely not. It's a market that's at fair value, right? Are there incredible buying opportunities in this market? Absolutely. Are there some stocks that are very scary to invest in for the next two, three, four years that are, you know, probably going down a lot um or going to be stagnant? Absolutely. So, and that's where it really becomes very fun if you're a stock picker and you know what you're doing.