Wall Street Activates The Liquidity…

Today's number, guys, is 7 because we've just entered extreme fear with the market only pulling back around 5%. And we now find ourselves at a key point, weekly mean reversion, with options volume starting to spike up into this month's OPEX and of course volume itself reaching levels that we usually see during extreme panic. What exactly is going on for us as investors and traders? In today's video, we take a look at the put call ratio, the free fall in the crypto markets right now that could get a little bit worse before it gets better, and the concerns over liquidity worldwide. Yes, there could be cracks to show, and in today's video, we'll go through the good, the bad, and the ugly. Join us as we cover stocks, commodities, and cryptos in the daily recap show. See you soon.

Well, welcome back everyone to the Daily Show. My name is Thomas and in today's video we've got a lot to talk about. The macro, the options flow, and of course, what has Wall Street been up to? It was a huge rally on Nvidia after good earnings into a massive dump across the board. And it has everybody wondering whether this is the beginning of something big. And we do have some major key levels to look at in today's video along with big put zones and I mean huge ones because this is of course the OPEX, the options expiration that matters each and every month.

Let's first off talk about these NFP numbers though because it looks like the US jobs report was okay and of course this was actually a fairly old one being the September report. October will be more interesting and that's been delayed by the way. And of course, we know that the idea that a rate cut was going to come is now starting to get taken off. Now, on top of that, we've got concerns over AI. Michael Bur of course calling this whole thing basically creative accounting. And we do have concerns coming in here for liquidity. So, what really was going on?

Well, as we know, NFP or jobs numbers are now the biggest event of the month. The Fed went from a dual mandate where they look after inflation and jobs numbers and they just said, "Stuff the inflation. Let's look just at the jobs." And of course, what this means is that sometimes it creates the most amount of liquidity. So liquidity can also create opportunity for Wall Street. And something we floated last week was that a lot of fund managers are big time down this year when it comes to retail traders and S&P returns. And what that means is they need cheaper prices so they can potentially rally the market into the end of the year, with the proviso that they then get their bonus pays.

Now this is a cool chart here from Hinrich over on X and it shows here that on the same day return, if we actually down on the NFP, it can be very, very good over the next 3 days, 5 days, and 10 days and considering the correlation that we're starting to see here in markets, that may make some sense.

So, let's first talk about some of the extreme fear that we're seeing. And this indicator is most likely broken, by the way. 1 year ago, we were neutral at 49. 1 month ago, we were already in fear at all-time highs. And of course, one week ago, we're at 11. Now, when this comes down to it, this particular indicator obviously is based on a whole bunch of things underneath the hood, but we are now sitting on a seven. So, an extreme fear rating. And it's very rare to be in extreme fear when you've barely seen a market sell-off. And I know a lot of you guys will say, "Well, Tom, this is a horrible sell-off. Everything's falling." And some stocks, particularly quantum stocks, are down upwards of 50% already off those extraordinary highs. But you've got to remember this is the actual way the QES have traded so far. And this is in the variety of what we call a normalized pullback. Anywhere between 5 and 10% is a very standard correction. And it's actually pretty healthy to occur in upward trends.

The interesting thing about this is the volume, guys. Take a look here at Subu Trade. He's gone through and looked at the cues and the spy and the last 24 hours actually are symbolic of a flash systematic sell that creates a huge amount of liquidity. Have a look here at the volumes that went through the cues, which is systematic to what happened in October or in April and then of course in July of last year. And these are super interesting levels. Have a look here at SPY as well. A massive zone. Big volume, big lows, big correlation. You'll see why this is all stacking up when we look at the put levels very, very soon. Remember we talked about weekly 20 moving average? Well, boom. We're there and we're also at that major support when it comes to the puts. We lose this though, things are starting to get quite concerning.

Now, when the CNN fear and greed falls below, Subu trade actually went through and had a look at this one and he found that actually it was a very mixed result. Now, I'm saying it's a bit broken because I know what the inputs are for this and I do think that the old results here from 20114 when this used to be okay and did work in that environment, they probably were more accurate. But do remember that it's more of a coin flip. So, it's not really worthwhile looking at that particular indicator, at least in my opinion. And I have posted that over on X. Some of you guys will disagree or agree. There are better reads that we use here on the channel.

So, what about the fact that the S&P gapped up and the Nasdaq gapped up into the open, then got crushed and then of course had this massive turnaround move. Well, this is a big deal and of course it can still bring sometimes a little bit more weakness, but generally it's actually strength equals strength. So even though it's strength into weakness, it's kind of like a flash crash that often then is bought up. And you can see here 2 days later after similar reads, we are at 86% likelihood of being up. Now there not that many of course reads there, but this does start to stack in with a few other things including the NASDAQ and the McClellan oscillator here, which also went into that kind of oversold read, which does tend to bring with it again pretty good statistics when you're looking at it for the next couple of weeks.

Now, if you've been watching the show for a while, we knew that 7 months up generally meant that we were going to chop and decline because the first three weeks after 7 months up for the NASDAQ were usually bearish. The fourth week was mixed. The fifth week was generally bullish. And this actually goes very well with some of the structures we've seen recently when it comes to losing key zones.

So, let's talk about the reasons why we could actually be here at around the key level of support. First up, the VIX has actually spiked higher. Now, that's good because over the last 24 hours, we were only sitting at around 24. Now, we've moved into the 28 kind of read and we've come back off that, but we hit 28. Now, remember, when we're sitting in this weird zone between kind of 22 and 26, that particular area there doesn't tend to give us the best returns. In fact, it's better to have low VIX or extremely high VIX. But now we've started to see extremely high VIX and it of course spiked up bringing in effectively the bears and huge options premium and this is all happening into OPEX, which is that big options expiration of the month.

Now there are some canaries. So let's bring up some of the worrying signs for probably more 2026 than right now. But the first one is the American consumer and I wrote about this in or over on X and I'll probably write about it on LinkedIn. Follow in the pin comment down below by the way for the LinkedIn post because it's going to be a big one and I'll also put it out for the newsletter as well this week because the thing here is that we've got Staples and Consumer Discretionary both down on year-to-date and this is actually really rare. The last time we saw this was like 1990 and the thing about it was we were actually in a recession during that time. Remember one-third of the US economy is made up of the American consumer. It's why we often track XLY versus XLP here on the channel. Get a bit of an idea of whether things are really freaking out. But this is a little bit different. Both are performing really poorly along with of course homebuilders. And it is a bit of a canary sign here in the markets that something is weak underneath the hood and people are really feeling it. We already know this because 10% of the US citizens basically right now, of you guys, the richest of the rich, they're basically buying everything. And no one else is. It's pretty much 10% are buying everything and everybody else is just struggling to hold on. And what we know about that economy is it can go for a little while, but remember to have a robust economy that isn't just the top 10 stocks and this AI fever dream. And remember, they call it hallucinations when it gets it wrong, guys, which it does a lot. I still think there's a bit of AI slop going on out there that when that's all occurring, then we basically have a market that is rallying on good earnings until it isn't. And of course, what we saw with Nvidia was, I would argue, good earnings. However, a lot of people, of course, are looking at it as creative accounting and the beginning of the end.

So, let's have a look here at Grant Hawk's cool chart. Basically, he's gone through and he's had a look at whether some of his trend structures are intact. Now, some of these I also use, so I thought it was cool just to have it here on the chart. And of course, we have risk on, risk off indicator. His one is broken. So, that means it's broken down. Basically, you've seen leadership of course weaken. We specifically lost XLK over the last 24 hours, and you'll see what I mean on the charts later on, but in general, we're still intact on the longer-term trends. And I think that's very important to note because yes, we're seeing a bit of the changing of the guard. Yes, we talked about the market turning more defensive than aggressive over the last two weeks in particular. Don's dividends here, by the way, with a really cool chart that we've shared a few times. And what that's shown us is that there's been a bit of a changing of the guard. That's actually systematic of usually Wall Street creating an opportunity. It could be further weakness that tends into debt, you know, bubble and everything goes bad. But generally speaking, this is the type of rotation you see as Wall Street delevers a lot of retail traders to then buy the dip.

Now, there are some other canaries that we need to mention. These stories are real. The tech sector has a wider spread when it comes to bonds and premium than the overall S&P. The first time we've seen this since 2012. This is an early warning sign of liquidity stress and stress in the markets. So we need to be aware of that. Another one that I want to mention here is private equity and I think we've got a chart for it soon. Private equity and the overall market are disconnecting, which shows you that when it comes to getting funding right now, it's actually very difficult. We recently saw OpenAI come out and say, "Hey guys, can we have some more money?" because they're burning so much of it and the market's like, "I'm not sure about that." We started to question these things. This is a problem. So do remember this takes a time to play out. It's usually a simmering effect, but I would certainly be paying attention to it. Make sure to subscribe to this channel because we'll be covering this topic hugely. There are always times to be panicked and right now it does look like this is more of a strength potentially will bring in strength.

Now, you can see here from Subu Trade also, total put volume starting to kind of spike up there. Basically, this just means everyone's jumping on the bear wagon right at the weekly 20 moving average, which is pretty much the point you wouldn't want to do that on, but this is very normal. And of course, what would happen potentially with bottoming style formations here in the markets and it's now come back to where we'd usually expect it.

So, let's have a look what happens according to the market stats here when we lose the 50-day moving average after having so much strength in it. It's one of those other good reads where it usually means a month later we're up 100%. And remember, we've shown plenty of structure here that we thought we might find weakness, first three to four weeks of, well, 3 weeks of this month particularly, then we would find strength and that 95% of the time in other structures, we would be bullish. Well, this one says that when we get this read, 100% of the time the market ends up being bullish and that's a pretty good stat. Now, of course, there's not that much data. Put risk management disclaimers all over it. Obviously, it's just one read, but it is interesting because what can happen is the market can drop a little bit more here, as you can see from Blue Curtic, upwards of 5%. I think we're actually about between 2 and 3% since this read. You can check it out on the charts if you want to. And then we tend to bounce in all cases. Now, that's really good because it actually works in very well with what we've talked about, which is a rally into the end of the year, which is of course mostly for Wall Street to make bonuses. Then next year we get earnings, and guess what? That could be where the concern is. First quarter, second quarter. Then we have the Fed and the chairman and all those types of swaps. It also happened on the NASDAQ as well. Of course, the NASDAQ being more volatile, lost more during these times, but ultimately they all ended pretty decently over 60. There was this one though that took longer to recover and that of course was from 1986. That classic flash crash scenario as well in '87.

Now let's have a look at private equity. So of course, as I mentioned before, it's harder to get money out there right now. You can see it here from this great chart from Top Down from Callum Thomas. And this is a disconnect in the market. And what that tells us is that we are now being led by AI data centers. And I don't know about you guys, but to me, it all smells bad and it's probably going to end up poorly. Now, it's not that AI is not the future, don't get me wrong. We got to invest in it, and it's going to bring so much innovation, but we've got robots that promise things that aren't really going to come through. We've got hype and speculation, and we obviously have data centers going in everywhere just to get more compute. And the word of the moment is you say DC, and you end up getting a higher market cap. So remember when this is happening, it's kind of like a fever dream and that will continue for a while. It's what we call the hardware phase of new technology. It happened with the railroad, it happened with the internet. It happened with mobile phones. It happened with the electricity. It happens with every single technology. And I actually write about this in my course, particularly the advanced trading masterclass. Quick plug to the Black Friday sale down below as well for that. And in that particular course, I go through why I already expected this, why I've been talking about this for years. And of course, you have to ride this thing until generally speaking, you get kind of the rails come off it. So, it's all about debt ultimately. And that's one of the big storylines here. Huddle.

Now, we did see a little bit of interesting stuff on Bitcoin. So, let's talk about this first because, of course, I did mention around this 90K mark, we started to see some extremely large trades come in. Now, this is on the Van Bitcoin Trust and they were both sweeps and a lot of the time these will spike buys. Now, you can see here number one went up a little bit. Sound familiar? Went up a little bit here too. Then it went down to make a new lower low and then of course it rallied up. Same thing happened with number three, which was a sweep, and number four just went up straight away. So, this is actually a good sign that someone is starting to buy Bitcoin. And I know it might not look like that because it's fallen through trend lines. It's fallen through key levels and all sorts of things have gone bad. But here's a good bit of information. The ProShares Ultrashort Bitcoin ETF, which also had some shorts on it from a little while, someone started to close some of that position. You can see here, little sweep came in over the last 24 hours, right at the close. So, that doesn't necessarily signify an a complete turnaround and all of a sudden Bitcoin is going to go up because remember this is a short, but it does show that someone said, "You know what, that's not bad. I'm going to start scaling out my position." And I think this chart here from Jim Biano over on X really exemplifies where we're at. The average purchase point of all Bitcoin ETF inflows is now in the red. And this is a really interesting chart. I really enjoyed looking at this and I did retweet it over on X because what it shows you is often when we get down to these levels, as you can see here, guys, we're at that turning point. And I think this is actually human psychology at play as well because the average person is now red in Bitcoin in terms of investing in ETFs. They're going to be freaking out and they're going to say, "I can't take the losses around here or I don't want to go. I was up so much now I'm down." And they tend to break even their trades or even close them at small losses. And this is actually a very common phenomenon when it comes to trading and investing and obviously something we don't want to be doing.

Now, Michael Green here over on X, he actually has another version of it and it shows that we're not quite at that break-even price yet. So, I'm not sure which one it is, but pretty much that other chart looked pretty good to me from Jim. And it does kind of hold true to what we've been talking about, liquidation levels and stop-losses. And we've got a new liquidation level now that we dropped that low over the next 24 hours. So, did we see whales come in around 89 to 92K? Yes, we did. Whales started to activate. I'll get some more updated charts on that. And now that we've dropped this 90K, 89K zone, basically the next level is around 83 to 84K. So, we're at the moment of this recording sitting about 86ish. Probably get down here. We'll make a decision whether we're going to liquidate there. And of course, it is also open to the potential in the 70s. Now, a lot of people won't want to hear that, but as I often say, patience, react, don't predict. If you pulled the trigger here or here for whatever reason, just remember that the current trend has still remained in the downward side. And we'll explain that later because we haven't seen a higher high. All we're currently seeing is of course outflows and still big sells. We're getting to the point now though where the evidence is starting to stack up for a bid rally, for a squeeze, and we're looking for that structure to come into markets.

When it comes to ETF flows, I posted this over on our X as well. You can see it's been red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, red, 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