Transcription
Bitcoin is not very far from making a new ATH. We have brushed against a new record. We will talk about it today. What would be the objectives as well? We will talk about ETFs. There was an update on Friday's inflows. We will talk about it, they are very interesting. Of course, we will also do an analysis of Ethereum, which is a little bit behind Bitcoin. But we will talk about the objectives. Just before starting, I remind you that our free algorithm service is still available. You keep 100% of the gains, we have put the results of the 2nd and 3rd quarters of the year for you. They are exceptional. The LIM algorithms, which made over 300 TP in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Already in the 3rd quarter, 305 TP, in the 2nd, 318 TP. So, very, very good results. Also the SPT algorithms, we have put the result in terms of reward, quite simply. So +19R in Q2 and +13R, I believe, 14R almost in Q3. We are making these algorithms available to you for free. To get them, it's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content will take you to this page. You just have to click on the second link just here and it will allow you to register on Bitgate via our partner link. You just have to click on register and it will allow you to register and also to have access to the competition that Bitgate is setting up. There is up to $10,000 to be shared. Don't hesitate, there is no penalty if you don't participate in the competition. It's just a bonus for you. Also, I made a video for you, it's the third link just here which will explain how to access the algorithms, access the mentorship. It's my complete free training from A to Z exclusively for Billgate members and you will also have access to VIP, Altcoin and Crypto, where I will share the best opportunities on Altcoins in the Discord channel.
So, to come here on BTC, we have broken the last fair value gap zone here on 12h. So for me, it's a signal that is quite strong, which leads me to think that the ATH will be triggered soon. We can possibly make a pullback on this zone to trigger the ATH. What you need to know is that the futures market is currently closed and often the big PWAs are not reached on the weekend, they will often be reached during the week when the CME market is also open. Note that the ATH on the CME is $12,665. So we can say that it remains an objective to reach on the CME as well. So we could say that the spot market, and the perpetual market as well, could go and reach these objectives, that we can trigger $125,000 and give institutional interest back, but rather retail interest, I would say, to re-interest people in the crypto market. I explained to you last week that it is hyper important to form a breaker block here because we are on an order block and we will be fixed when Bitcoin, in my opinion, risks triggering the ATH. Are we going for a breaker and a continuation or not? Because if it doesn't go for a breaker block but a simple stop hunt, then it's really dangerous. It could indicate that the quarter could be bearish or at least that we could return below $107,000 or even $105,000. That's why we need a breakout here and no reversal signals. Obviously, we will be here every day to see if there are reversal signals or not. For now, there are none. So the clear objective is $124,545 on the perpetual spot market. So there, you are buying Bitcoin, and on CME futures products, it's around $12,665.
Note on the derivatives side, we still have funding rates below neutrality on Binance. On Bybit, even today, there have been negative funding rates, which indicates that people continue to short and that their stops continue to accumulate above the ATH. So, that's what makes me think we're going to get there. Also on Hyper Liquid, there is no increase in funding, it's often with them that things degenerate first. So people are not really FOMOing on derivatives. The good news also is that we have record inflows on ETFs, on BTC ETFs. Here, we can see that we had +985 million in inflows on Friday, which is huge. So, the inflows are increasing, which is what we want to see. If we have a breakout of the ATH, we want to see increasing inflows because if we go to chase the ATH and the inflows stop, it simply means that investors are not interested in buying beyond $125,000. And so, naturally, the price will return to areas of interest, particularly below $107,000, potentially below $105,000. That's why we need to break the ATH with volume, with inflows, so that we have massive buying pressure coming from the spot market. So to recap, that's what Bitcoin is doing. Now we need to be extremely careful at the ATH because these big bullish pushes at the beginning of the quarter require extreme caution. Tagging a major POI also requires extreme caution because as I told you, if we tag the ATH and there are rejections, it will be really not good. We want the price to remain strong above the ATH. Don't forget that many people have recently shorted Bitcoin. They all have their stops above the ATH. If the objective is just to take the stops before forming a reversal, we will see it quickly. That's why we need to avoid that at all costs.
Now, we can go on Ethereum just here. And Ethereum has filled its last daily FVGs from the previous bearish leg. We had a lower high and now we have filled the FVGs. So now what we want to see from Ethereum is the maintenance of bullish FVGs to also go and seek a new ATH. So the last Daily Fair Value Gap, it has formed, it is just here. I will give you the price zones quite quickly. Hop, between $4,426 and approximately $4,359. So theoretically, we can consider this, it's not theoretical, it's factual, we can consider this as a breakaway gap. So in fact, it's a fair value gap that can remain open. The market can just come and fill this FVG and then decide to deliver the buy stop zones. So we have $4,640, $4,768, and $4,957. Theoretically, the major objective for Ethereum is its ATH. Why? Because we have already talked about it on futures products. It doesn't mean we will go there again, but on futures products, we can see that the Weekly Fair Value Gap has been maintained and we talked about it. As long as it is maintained, we have a high chance of going to make a new ATH. And the ATH on the CME is $4,903. The stops have not yet been taken. This is what leads me to think that we can go and recover these stop losses on ETH. And to do so, we need to break the last FVG zone on daily. This is what can allow us to break through the buy stop zones above the ATH. And so for us, theoretically on spot and perpetual market, it could be $5,000 because it's a huge psychological round number. And if we want to re-interest people in the market, a Bitcoin reaching $125,000 and an Ethereum reaching $5,000 will reattract people. And that's what can lead to capital flows coming into the market. We need it to find new hype, new investors, and attract liquidity, whether it's on altcoins and so on.
I'm not too interested in analyzing the price on 1-hour, especially on weekends, because the market is not very liquid and we see that it's simply ranging. Note the sell stop zones as interesting entry zones. Particularly here, we can see that we have $4,426. Also note everything that is previous daily lows. So in this case, the daily fair value gap corresponds to the same zone. So $4,426 is an interesting zone because it covers yesterday's low but also what is called the daily FVG. So roughly, we shouldn't be surprised if ETH comes to take the stops here and then makes its next bullish push to seek the next buy stop zone which will be at $4,640. So to summarize, what we are seeing in terms of price action is positive, but we must not forget that on Bitcoin, the movement is a beginning of quarter movement, it is quite suspicious. We must not turn around above the ATH at all, we need a clear breakout. Also, I've already mentioned it, but on BTC on Coinbase, it doesn't matter, I'm taking Coinbase because it's where we have a lot of history, but we are in contact with the trendline of the two previous cycles. We have tagged this trendline three times now, we need to break it if we want to have a climax run. A climax run is an acceleration of the price to enter a new strong momentum because we can see that on a monthly basis, the momentum is slowing down. Here I have put the MACD. We can see that the peaks are getting smaller and smaller, which means that Bitcoin is pushing less and less strongly on its bullish legs. And so if we break this trendline, we will have a big acceleration and therefore the momentum will make a new peak, which can allow for an acceleration of the market as a whole. On the other hand, if we refuse to break the trendline and we just take the stops, then more and more it will indicate a weakening momentum and we will have to consider, not a cycle end. I am preparing a video probably next week on what I think about QE QT cyclicity, what is happening, monetary printing, etc. Are we in cycles similar to what we had before? What about it? But in any case, at that point, if we have a rejection above the ATH, then we will have to start thinking about a bearish swing, not bear markets that could form. So this is important to talk about because as long as we don't break this trendline, I remind you that the maximum objective for Bitcoin for the end of this year, meaning for the end of 2025, is at most Bitcoin would not exceed or would not settle above $1300. So that's why we need to break this trendline if we want to regain momentum. Momentum, for those who are beginners, is the strength of the movement. The stronger the movement, the further and higher the market goes. The more momentum weakens, the market can continue to rise but it rises less and less strongly. And that's what we have here on this bullish leg currently. You can see that the bullish leg from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024 was stronger than the bullish leg we had during Donald Trump's election. And we can see that our third bullish leg that we currently have this year 2025 is weaker than the previous leg. So that's why here you have momentum that is starting to show signs of divergence. This does not mean that we are going to enter a bear market and that it is over for BTC. It simply means that we have probabilities of having momentum that is fading and therefore that the pumps will be less and less powerful as long as we don't break this trendline. That's why it's hyper important to break it and not just do a stop hunt at the ATH and then turn around.
Regarding economic news, on Friday, we did not have the results because the US government is shut down. So we have to wait for this situation to pass, which means that the probabilities for interest rate cuts are not moving at the moment, or at least very little. So this means that at this level, we will not have too many surprises, unless something really happens that the market has not anticipated. Do you have any ideas? Feel free to tell me in the comments. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to smash the thumbs up, subscribe if you haven't already, leave a little comment. A big thank you to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box, you have a lot of free content that you can also get. There is the possibility to register for my school. It's the only paid subscription I offer, which is right here. Join my trading school. The price is €49 per month, it's without commitment. You also have the 36 and 12 month offers which are even cheaper. You also have the possibility to access the daily brief thanks to the school, from Monday to Friday. Every morning, you also have the brief which is a 10-point replay. I analyze your altcoins, I answer your questions, we find opportunities together. I talk about my personal exposure on the market. Also, you have access to the exclusive training, the exclusives at the school. 19 hours of video courses, 8 modules that train you from A to Z, which complement the mentorship very well, and you also have here a bit more description of what you will find in the school, of course, access to Discord with the school members, you can exchange among yourselves with us, the teachers, we are here to help you all progress together. You also have testimonials from members right here to give you an idea. I'll stop here. See you tomorrow. Have a good day. Bye. Bye.