Transcription
Yes, you read the title of the video correctly. I'm giving you the number one fantasy breakout for every NFL team. That is 32 names. All right, some of them are deep deep sleepers. Some of them are absolute smash picks, but they're all my number one breakouts.
Let's start off with the AFC North. We've got four players going to talk about, but I'd like to highlight the Cleveland Browns, specifically Quinshaun Judkins. Now, before you, you know, log off the video and say Zach's an idiot, just give me a chance to make the take cuz I do think Judkins is a legitimate breakout contender in 2026. I want you to remember last year when he was a rookie, we did not know when he would join the team, let alone play a game, right? I mean, we weren't worried about like, will he be there week one? No, he wasn't there week one. He joined the team in week two because of these off-field issues. So, the first time he was active for the Browns was week two. He didn't have any preseason action, any time with the team in camp, and that first week in week two, he only played 27% of the snaps, but got 13 touches including three targets and accounted for 48% of the team's carries. His second game with the team, second week with the team, doesn't know these people, 20 touches, 95% of the team carries and 16 and a half PPR points. From when he took over in week three to before his injury in week 16, he averaged the fourth most carries per game in the league at 17.7 as well as 12.5 PPR points per game.
And I already know what you're saying. You're you're yelling at your screen saying, "Zach, you're an idiot. The Cleveland Browns, they suck. They're terrible on offense." You are 100% right. They were basically bottom of the league in every single category, okay? Yet still, despite that fact, Judkins was able to average 12 and a half points per game. And in off-season where he wasn't even with his team as a rookie. That is impressive to me. Now, I believe, you might disagree, but I believe the Browns have made a serious effort to improve their offense in 2026. They've added mega talent across the offensive line. They added a round one wide receiver with Casey Concepcion. They added a round two wide receiver with Denzel Boston. If the Browns go from just like being bottom two offense in the league last year to a bottom 10 offense in the league this year, Judkins will be a breakout. It will happen. Think about it this way, okay? No one seems to have a problem with making the bet on Breece Hall in the third round. I don't have a problem with it either either because we know he's an uber talented running back with workhorse status. Well, last year Breece was also in a terrible offense and underperformed in fantasy, right? Just 13 points per game. But we all know these two guys are are what they're capable of in the right environment.
Now, we've got a couple other names here with this division. Chase Brown transparently, I couldn't think of a any true breakout in Cincinnati. It's just really obvious who's going to be good in Cincinnati, but I want to explain with Chase Brown. I think so there's a legitimate chance for him to have a career year, meaning top six fantasy football finish. Last year with Jake Browning, he averaged just 10 points per game. But when he had competent quarterback play with Flacco and Burrow, averaged 20 points per game with Flacco in nine games and 19.4 points per game with Burrow. And basically, he just needs competent quarterback play this year. That's what I mean by a breakout. He has legitimate like league-winning like that guy type of potential. Darnell Washington, this is really a deep cut. But you know, he got paid before and after the bye. You can see his target share go up, his points per game go up. Elijah Schraw, another real deep cut for the dynasty people out there, but talented rookie, brand new staff, new play callers. This is the dream that he is in the, you know, big slot role in Baltimore with Declan Doyle calling the plays there.
Okay, let's go to the AFC East. Again, every division's going to have some deep cuts and some smashes. Four teams here and I want to start off with the Patriots. Specifically, Travion Henderson. Now, in general, and this is a good take for even Judkins for the last take we had. in general, running backs with this draft capital, okay? Round two draft capital and this talent of what Traveon Henderson has. In general, these guys take huge steps in year number two. And that big step, it starts with more opportunities. Since 2020, seven of the nine running backs, 78% with his draft capital, saw an increase in touches their second year. I didn't put Jonathan Brooks in here because he hasn't played because of his injury. Those opportunities for those year two running backs with round two capital led to a bigger fantasy impact on a points per game basis. For five of those six running backs, 83% of them made a much bigger impact in fantasy football. The guys who really didn't, they just went down with an injury like Javonte in year two, Acres in year two, JK Dobbins in year two. Really, the only thing that stopped a year two running back with round two draft capital from being great, from paying off big time, was injuries. And quite frankly, in my opinion, the only thing that stops Henderson from breaking out in year two is touches. AKA, like what is the Rhamondre Stevenson role going to be? Last year in games without Rhamondre, Traveon was an absolute superstar. He showed you what he's capable of. In three games, 24 points per game, almost 19 touches per game when you look at his attempts and his targets. All Henderson needs is opportunities. And if he gets an increase on those touches, like 78% of the running backs with his draft capital have done since 2020, playing in an elite rushing attack like New England, he has top 10 upside easily. Again, all Henderson needs is opportunity. If he gets an increase in his role like 78% of the running backs with his draft capital have in their second year since 2020, then playing in an offense like this, it's not crazy to say top 10 upside is legitimately there for Traveon Henderson. For me, like I love targeting him in round number five. If you have a really healthy base for your team through four rounds. Like for example, here at the 1.07, I drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown, I get Amari Ndiaye on the way back, Javonte in the third round, Jaylen Waddle in the fourth. I feel really great about having two running backs, two wide receivers on the board. For me, you can look at ESPN ADP, for example, in my rankings, he's also the top player available. I have no problem making that pick in the fifth round knowing the upside that he carries.
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Okay, in this division, we also have Dalton Kincaid, who ran less routes per game in 2025 than he did in 2024. However, he was far more efficient as a pass catcher, had 10.5 points per game. You know, can Joe Brady finally unleash the guy? We all know that he's super talented. Can he stay healthy? Another tight end for the Dolphins, Greg Dulcich. This is one of my favorite last pick in your draft dart throws at the tight end spot. There's simply no established targets in Miami, and if you think they're going to be down in games, then you could bet on a profile like Greg Dulcich. Adam Trautman, the drumbeat is getting louder and louder. Probably a waiver wire pick up. You probably don't draft this guy yet, but keep an eye out for him on the waiver wire this year.
Okay, AFC South. I want to start specifically with the Titans here, and we're going to look at Carnell Tate. Someone please explain to me how Carnell Tate is not just cheap Taysom Hill and McMillan in 2026. Like seriously, explain this to me because as rookies, if you compare them, Tate was fourth overall in the NFL draft, McMillan was eighth. Neither had good quarterback play or solidified quarterback play. Neither had target competition you were worried about, yet McMillan was a fourth-round pick last year, and Tate is a sixth-round pick this year. And if you look at both of them in 2026 drafts, Mcmillan is a third round pick and Tank is a sixth round pick. I mean, are we sure that Tank doesn't outscore Mcmillan this year? Sure, Cam Ward is unproven, but let me ask you this, would you rather have the unproven Cam Ward and Brian Daboll figure out figuring out how to get you targets, or would you rather just have exactly what you know kind of Bryce Young is at this point? Because, man, it's not like we look at Brian Daboll and say like, man, I just wish we had evidence that Brian Daboll could support a rookie receiver and feed him targets. I mean, cuz we have that evidence, guys. All right, back in 2024 with Malik Nabers. As a rookie, Malik Nabers led the entire league in targets per game with 11.3 and target share with 35.7% of the target share. This is not anti-Tank McMillan at all. I love that guy. I'm just showcasing how cheap this is for a top five drafted wide receiver in his first year. We know he's a number one target in day one. Total breakout potential. Wan'Dale is a complimentary piece. He's not going to take targets away from him. But Shel Tuten, you've heard 100 plus people talk about Tuten at this point. But to be honest, if you're a team Tuten, then the drumbeat beat is only getting louder. Check out what Liam Cohen had to say recently.
>> Okay, now Tuten, you got it. You understand it more. Now just go be you. Like go do what got you here. Go be special. That's who you are. And um, I'm we're definitely expecting uh, Tuten to have a big year for us.
Uh, for the Texans, it's Jayden Higgins. We are two years removed from people confidently drafting three wide receivers from the Texans in the first five rounds of fantasy drafts. If you remember that draft, uh, Higgins showed flashes in year one. I think he can have a great leap in year two. And Josh Downs is our Colts selection here, simply because he's been held back by only playing out of the slot. But this year we hear that he's going to play in two wide receiver sets. No Michael Pittman. There's a lot of reasons to believe he could break out.
Let's go to the AFC West where we've got huge names on this list. I want to start off with the Broncos and brother Bo Nix. Look, all the kid did in his first two years of his NFL career is finish top seven in fantasy both years, rush for at least 350 yards and at least four rushing touchdowns in both years as a quarterback. And he did that with basically just Courtland Sutton as his good weapon. I mean, no disrespect to like Troy Franklin and Evan Engram, but they're just not really quality players. And now you get to throw to Jaylen Waddle? That is a perfect fit with this offense with Sean Payton with Bo Nix. Last year, Bo Nix had the sixth lowest yards per attempt. Only Kirk Cousins, Bryce Young, Spencer Rattler, Joe Flacco, and Cam Ward were lower in that category. Welcome in Jaylen Waddle, one of the best YAC threats in the NFL. So, if you want to throw it short, he can maximize that game like nobody else. If you want to stretch the field, he's made a career stretching the field with Tua making Tua look like a decent quarterback. Look, if last year he was able to put up 4,200 all-purpose yards, 29 total touchdowns, you know, without Waddle, what is he capable of doing with Waddle?
Now, these names like for the Chargers, it's obvious like Armon-Ra St. Brown, some of the breakouts are obvious, right? Like for Ken Walker with the Chiefs, that's obvious. For Bowers with the Raiders, that's obvious. These are players that I've heavily covered throughout the offseason. So, I didn't want to like get too in the weeds with the same names. But, here's some videos where you can watch full in-depth breakdowns of all of those takes cuz I am very much in on those guys. But, we're trying to get 32 names in a reasonably timed video here. But, those are all very confident breakouts for me.
Let's go to the NFC North. I want to specifically look at the Vikings here before we dive into any other team. I think the the best breakout to point to here is going to be Jordan Mason. In his first year as a Viking, he accounted for 44% of the running back snaps and 42% of the team carry share. So, it was a good fantasy season, right? That sounds good for the for the Vikings, right? Well, no, it was not. And quite frankly, it wasn't really his fault, if we're being honest. The Vikings had a massive outlier of a negative offensive year, if you will. Kevin O'Connell took over for this team play calling in 2022. Last year was by far the worst year he's had for this offense and things like points scored at 26th, first downs at 27th. They could not sustain drives. They were bottom five in total yards. Uh previous low was 12th in the league. If you are not sold that Mason didn't have a chance in 2025 just by me saying that, what if I told you that he led the Vikings in rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line? He led the team rushing attempts inside the five, money touches where you can get touchdowns. But still, he had less of those special attempts on the year than names like Sean Tucker, Rashad White. Yeah, both of those guys on the same team had more attempts than him, even though he led the Vikings. Uh less attempts inside the five than Woody Marks, Rodriguez, Tyler Allgeier, Kenneth Gainwell, Devin Singletary. What if we extend that? Mason, despite leading the Vikings in rushes inside the 10-yard line, had less of those attempts than Tony Pollard. Zonavan "Bam" Knight, Ali freaking Gordon, Kemani Vidal, Ty Johnson, Tyler Shuck, Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones. Simply put, if you are back in on Justin Jefferson because you believe that this offense is going to positively regress as in like to the mean, coming back, swinging back towards the right direction, then you should be in on Jordan Mason because the offense is probably going to be much better, and I think he's going to have his best year in the NFL thus far.
I got some other names here in the north like Luther Burden, like Bichotte Zouton. Who hasn't talked about Burden as a breakout this year, including myself? The drum drumbeat is loud. We're hearing Ben Johnson, the play caller, say things like, "I'm buying stock. I think he's going to be a great player this year." And uh totally could be a huge like league winner if he hits, but his price is he's quite pricey. Matthew Golden is a real deep sleeper for you guys. Showed very little as a rookie, but Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are departing from this team, which makes this wide receiver room very straightforward. You know in two wide receiver sets, it will be Watson and it will be uh Matthew Golden. Jayden Reed will be your slot guy in your three wide receiver sets. Golden had a great playoff game. I think he's waiting to be unleashed, and it wouldn't be the first time that a Packers wide receiver uh had to kind of take some time to learn the system. Isaac Tezdahl is my pick here for the Lions. Look, quite frankly, everybody that I think of like as a breakout with the Lions has already broken out. Like, I can't tell you Jameson, Amon-Ra, LaPorta, Gibbs, Goff. I mean, so it's just like I think he could have a really good year, but probably going to be limited by opportunities.
Okay. Let's jump into the NFC East. Starting off with the Commanders. We'll go through all these teams, but my pick for the Commanders is Mr. Chig Okonkwo. We are getting jiggy with it in 2026. No surprise to anybody who's been watching my content this year, but Dulcich is my favorite last pick of the draft tight end dart throw, but Chig is my favorite late round swing in general at the tight end position. Look, you know, last year it's hard to really take the Titans offense serious last year. You might be saying like, "Zack, are you serious? Are you stupid? Like, are you dumb? Chig has never done anything before." Let's be real, though. Last year the Titans, bottom three basically in completion percentage, passing yards per game, passing touchdowns per game. I mean, they were terrible. And they haven't been better pretty much for Chig's entire career there. They've been bottom of the league as a passing offense. So, can we not like pretend like we really know what Chig's capable of? Meanwhile, he goes to to They promise him an important role. They need him because their top two target earners are no longer in town. Deebo and Zach Ertz, who led the team targets, they're gone. Zach Ertz, two years with Jayden Daniels, averaged a 20 and 18% target share. The Commanders have the third most vacated targets in the league, second most vacated targets to the tight ends with Zach Ertz leaving. I don't see why Trey Sermon can't be a perfectly fine, flexible name, startable name, sorry, streamer at the tight end position for you if you go late at on tight ends this year. McKyle Lemon for the Eagles is my pick. Um uber talented first-round pick, stepping into an offense where there are targets up for grabs without A.J. Brown. The Eagles have the second most vacated targets to wide receivers now with the A.J. Brown departure, just behind the Miami Dolphins. For the Giants, it is going to be Jackson Dart. Guys, Jackson Dart as a rookie with no Malik Nabers, no Cam Skottabou, still averaged over 20 points per game in fantasy. The quarterback six from week four onwards since 2000. He is one of two rookie quarterbacks who from week four onwards averaged 20 plus PPR points per game, 185 passing yards per game, over 40 rushing yards per game, and .8 rushing touchdowns per game. It's just him and Cam Newton. I think he's going to break out in year number two. Now, for the Cowboys, like the Lions, it's hard to really like it's just all guys you expect to produce. Ryan Flournoy is an interesting name that's worth stashing, looking at the waiver wire in season. Transparently, I don't see any running back, tight end, quarterback breaking out. So, it's more of a deep cut there.
Let's go to the NFC South. I'm going to start with the New Orleans Saints. And my pick for the Saints is Jordan Tyson. He's stepping into an ascending offense. Tyler Shough, uh from week 10 onwards, was fifth in completions, second in completion percentage, seventh in passing yards. Kellen Moore's offense is very fantasy-friendly, high-paced, exciting, you know, fantasy passing environment. They ranked number one in seconds per play last year. This team has a huge need for a number two target outside of Chris Olave, and Tyler Shuck clearly going to be excited to work with the guy. Check out what he had to say about him recently.
>> I think his body control and his separation is what stands out to me. I think he's he's an elite separator and then also his hands has been really really exciting to see kind of close up now is he's so sure handed. He's he's got this great kind of feel whenever he's very friendly to the quarterback, I would say. And then obviously his big play abilities is what shows up all over tape. So
And Tyson, all he did in college was just produce at an elite level. He had 136 catches, 1800 yards, and 18 touchdowns in 21 games in the last 2 years at Arizona State. I see a ton of Amari Cooper to his game. Now for the Falcons, my pick is going to be Kyle Pitts. He got paid this off season. Stefanski loves to heavily feature tight ends in his offense. Kyle Pitts is very young. At one point people considered him an elite prospect, and there's not many target earners in Atlanta. I mean, who are they going to throw to outside of Bijan Robinson and Drake London at this point, right? For the Panthers, it's Jonathan Brooks. And for the Bucks, it is Emeka Egbuka. I have talked about those guys at nauseam this off season. So I figured I would save you for this specific video. I'll bring them up here soon, but don't worry. For this specific video, love those guys as breakouts. Jonathan Brooks is one of my favorite sleeper running backs. Egbuka, I have high expectations for him.
All right, let's go to the NFC West here to round it off. I'm going to start with the Arizona Cardinals. Probably the least attractive offense of all of them. So it was hard, but Marvin Harrison Jr. Okay, the reality is it is absolutely impossible to say what Marvin could have done last year because his injury it just kept him off the field. However, if we look specifically at number one, games without Kyler Murray. Number two, games where he was healthy. Pretty easily see that he was plenty productive, plenty involved, right? Averaging 14 and a half points per game, 8.75 targets per game, a 25% target share. This isn't meant to be like anti-Michael Wilson or something, but if I'm going to bet on one of these guys like hit it big, it's going to be the profile of a Marvin Harrison Jr. coming out of Ohio State. Let's talk about Blake Corum. Now, if you're a Kyren Williams guy, don't like yell at me in the comments section. In 2025, he was fantastic, uh fifth in yards per carry, second in success rate. You can see his work basically doubles from week seven onwards last year. Touches per game double, yards per game basically double. And I just think he's a really good player. Jahmyr Gibbs and Price is my pick for the Seahawks. If you look at the vacated opportunities this year with both Sharpenay and Walker being out, you're looking at about 80% across the board of the rushing attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns from this offense last year. And I'm going to finish off the video with Mr. Slick Ricky Pearsall. Led the NFL in receiving yards in the first four weeks of the NFL season, then suffered a PCL sprain. I think he's really talented. I really think this can be like an Adam Thielen. He's the perfect complement to Mike Evans. I'm super excited about that offense in 2026. I think Slick Ricky can be a big part of it.
What do you guys think? 32 breakouts from all ranges. Smash picks, mid-round picks, you know, sleepers, deep sleepers. Uh what do you think? Let me know in the comments below. Go and hit that like button if I earned it. Sub if I earned it today. Help me get to 100K. Appreciate you watching. Get the season pass if you want to support the show and get the cheat sheet. Best deal in the industry, $34 when you use a code land. Check out the pin comment and I'll see you guys in the next video. Nothing but love. Adios.
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