Transcription
Hello everybody and welcome into Commodity Culture, where we break down commodities markets, sound money principles, and geopolitics, all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day, and today is November 24th, 2025.
And on this episode, I'm thrilled to welcome Ian Everard to the program, the owner of Arc Silver Gold Opium and an enthusiast and analyst in the precious metal space. Ian provides some breaking inside news as a bullion dealer in this conversation, including the fact that getting a hold of silver products is getting more and more difficult and premiums on the wholesale side are rising, indicating structural tightness in the physical market that he sees increasing up ahead. We also dive into silver inventories at the LBMA, silver being added to the critical minerals list in the US, why manipulation in the precious metals markets isn't over yet, and so much more. So strap yourselves in for my conversation with Ian Everard.
Ian Everard, it is great to have you back on Commodity Culture. I want to kick things off with the major selloff we've seen in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin plunging from a high of $125,000 all the way down to around $86,000 where it sits today, with other coins getting hit much harder. Gold and silver, however, holding up quite well, with $50 silver and $4,000 gold seeming to be the new floor price for the metals. What do you make of this crypto crash and the resilience of precious metals in our current market environment?
Oh, good question. So, I've been thinking about Bitcoin and crypto, and you know, I've I've been very dismissive of it, and I do apologize to anybody I've offended in the past. It's not for me. But we can learn a lot about psychology, human behavior, and what's going on. Um, a little bit of research into Bitcoin. It seems like it takes almost exactly a year, 50 days to go from bottom to top, and then almost exactly a year to go from top to bottom. Um, and also, we recently dropped below the 50-week moving average around $103,000. And historically, every time it does that, we're now in a one-year downtrend. Um, it, I think the warning bells are there when Liberty Finance and the Trump family start pushing it and promoting crypto. That's a warning sign. Harvard University, I think, bought $300 million of Bitcoin, uh, a month or so ago. The US government now owns, well, we the people supposedly. Um, I, I don't know if we actually, we the people own it, or the government has access to it. Only 198,000 Bitcoin, and I think that's gone down 30% since they topped up the holdings. So there's a lot, lot going on. Um, I heard somebody talk recently, is it the IPO sort of, uh, happening? You know, you get an IPO, you get a surge, you get a rush, you get a buzz, keeps on going up. So because it keeps on going up, you got momentum, so people keep buying. And then the early people, they've made their 10x or 100x or whatever, and they think, you know what, I'm banking it. And if that's the case, that would tell me they don't have confidence that it's going to even remain stable and going up steadily. If, if they think, you know, we got to cash out. And some very large, um, transactions have been done. I think one was $9 billion, one, one single, um, holder. So, is it over for Bitcoin? I guess time will tell, but it looks like for a year, it's just going to just keep, keep going down, which I sort of predicted last time we were on. I think I said, um, Bitcoin has peaked against gold, uh, 37 ounces of gold to one Bitcoin. Now, I think we're around 21. I think I calcul, yeah, 21 ounces of gold this morning. Um, also, is it an early panic? You know, for risk-on investors, you know, probably people with a high degree of net worth, savvy, on the ball, probably got a whole team of advisors and lawyers and accountants, and they probably said, you know what, time, time to pull out of that one. We think, you know, you're not going to see 10, 20% gains on that. Better park it in something a bit more stable, or a lot more stable.
Yeah, great analysis. And, and you know, it's often been said that Bitcoin was digital gold, but it seems to have been more closely tracking the broad market, you know, the NASDAQ and the S&P, than it has gold and silver. And now we've seen this selloff, and as I mentioned, other crypto coins taking an even bigger hit. And yet gold and silver are holding their own here. We've also seen a bit of cracks appearing when it comes to the broad market as well. Um, you know, what do you make of the whole AI craze? Is this a bubble at this point? Um, it feels like the AI revolution was, was said to be able to keep driving stocks like Nvidia up forever. You know, a lot of analysts have earnings reports going out that Nvidia is just going to keep making, uh, a lot of money, which is, uh, is tough to see. And even Howard Marks, who's usually very hesitant to, to make declarative statements, has said that, you know, when we look at where the CAPE, or the Shiller P/E ratio, and just overall valuation of the broad market historically, when it's been this high, the next 10 years have fluctuated between -2 and plus 2% returns per year. So it doesn't look like there's a ton of growth left in this. Uh, what are your thoughts?
It is frightening, isn't it? Nvidia has a valuation greater than Germany's GDP.
That's crazy.
You know. And yes, Germany is at the beginning of a, a decline. How fast that's going to be, whether they can change out their economy to less manufacturing to something else. I, I, I don't know. Or maybe the Russia-Ukraine war will end, and then somehow they'll get access to cheap energy again, and they'll be able to pick up where they left off, being a, a leading, um, you know, chemical producer. Um, now, I sort of got off track there, didn't I? Oh, yeah, Nvidia's G valuation. I, I, I think last week it went up a quarter of a trillion, then went down six-tenths of a trillion. So, a one trillion, like, and I think it's that is almost linked to the product of AI. I am sure there are AI quants now. So digital quants using searching, scaring information, trying to get ahead of the game on the latest piece of information, and they're putting in the assessment, this, this is fake. You know, I mean, Nvidia's inventory is rising. That, you know, if their products are in so much demand, why would their inventory be rising? Um, the amount they're owed is rising, so they've delivered product, hasn't been paid for yet. The amount they keep investing in other companies who buy their products is circular, the whole circular entanglement. Um, and I think one, probably the biggest clue, did you see Sam Altman almost pre-begging the government for a bailout when it crashes? It's like,
Yeah.
You were early, dude. If you're saying the government should back it, 'cause if they don't, China's going to win, and blah, blah, blah, blah. Like, is he lying, or, or is he just not giving the whole information? You know, and, and the end result was the same. If these AI dudes really know that it can never make money, will never make money, yet they're suckering in trillions of investment. Um, uh, yeah, that's not really fair, is it, on the, the investing public. And as is almost always, almost always the case, the, the, the last people to get suckered in are small investors. The people put in a few hundred, few thousand dollars thinking, "Yeah, I'm going to get 10x that." 'Cause the people behind me have turned their million into a billion, you know, so I might as well have a piece of the action. And, and, and then it falls off a cliff. It seems to be the pattern time and time again. And the big whales get out, and the bank holders are left carrying the rubbish.
Yeah, Sam Altman, an extraordinarily suspicious individual in general. I think when you, when you see him talking, it's like something's not right there. Um, so we've heard a lot about a big coming potential capital rotation from these overvalued tech stocks into gold and silver. I think we may have already seen some of that. Perhaps could be part of the rise that we've seen in both metals so far year to date. I mean, obviously this AI bubble, it's got to burst at some point. Who knows? Maybe this time is different. Maybe valuations continue to rise, and, and everybody lives in this amazing land of the AI revolution forever. But I mean, if, if history, even though it may not repeat, but yet it might rhyme, we're going to see some type of serious correction in my opinion. Um, at that point, do you think that could perhaps fuel the next leg up in, in this gold and silver bull cycle?
Absolutely. Um, and the figures are just outstanding. I did a little bit of research into how big the Eurodollar market was, and all, all I could find quickly was 2023 Bank for International Settlements data, and they were estimating $76 trillion of derivatives and other instruments in dollars created outside of the US, outside of US control, and about $13 trillion in traditional loans and bonds. I mean, so let's round it up, a hundred trillion dollars floating around. Like, um, when you start doing the math, if just a tiny, tiny speck of that tries to buy silver, I, I mean, again, the latest inventories at the LBMA, value of the silver, total silver held, and most of it's not for sale, uh, $41 billion. It's like, so we're, we're a factor several thousand to one of the dollars out in the wild compared to the, the, you know, what the LBMA, which is supposed to be the most liquid, the deepest pool, you know, silver in the world to, to stabilize the market, um, and I think historically, to help manipulate the market.
Speaking of the LBMA, you know, there, there's been a lot of inventory stress there. A few different people have told me that the inventories basically have been at zero, running on fumes. They're desperately trying to to get physical silver in to settle contracts because people are standing for delivery. Um, have you been looking at all into the LBMA inventory situation at the moment? And if so, what's your assessment?
Only in as much as when we get, um, an exchange for physical event, that's when we've seen dollar or $2 dollar jumps in the price of silver that don't seem to have any other rational, um, cause. Um, so that would suggest that there, the liquid amount of instantly deliverable silver, even if it's got to be flown across the Atlantic, because at least if they've got it and it's unhindered, unencumbered, and it's ready, that can be covered by silver in New York. It doesn't have to be the same bar. They can just change the, the ownership on it. Doesn't have, they don't even have to move the bar if it's not hypothecated. So that would suggest to me, when we're getting these rapid jumps, one cause behind that is the lack of physical silver when people are are demanding physical and not dollars in settlement of a trade.
And last time I had you on the show, which was about a month ago, you mentioned you were seeing somewhat of an extinction event when it came to physical silver products. You're having trouble getting your hands on some of them. Could you give us an update on that? Has the situation improved at all?
It's mixed. It's eased a little bit. Um, there's virtually no, um, common date Philharmonics, Brittannias, Krugs, Maples, Kangaroos. Virtually none available now. Um, 2025 Eagles have become available again. Uh, so that's improved. Um, premiums have jumped up to wholesale. Um, don't want to upset any other dealers, but wholesale premium on 2025 Maples. Here we go. $3.50 now. Well, that was $1.95. So the wholesale premium on the Maple is only 50 cents less than the 2025 Eagles now. So that's closed right down. Still historically low. Um, summer 2020, the wholesale premium on a Maple was $4 to $5 when silver was $25. So as a percentage, premiums are still historically low. Um, but, but rising. Um, so it's a mixed picture on the secondary market. Um, there's plenty of the more junkier stuff. You know, you, you place your order, and you, you, it can be good, bad, or ugly. It can be, you know, beat up, tarnished, you know, bad packaging, undesirable stuff that I, I will just have to send and get it melt, send it back and get it melted. Um, I don't like to send anything out that I wouldn't want to own myself. Um, but, so yes, slightly improving, but I think what it told us, um, was it about a month ago we last talked, how thin the market is, you know, and we, we are getting a shakeout of retail product, but I think the bulk we saw last year, and we've seen a little bit of a surge, but there's not a lot of good secondary market stuff coming on in silver. Um, and we shouldn't really need to rely on that. But we, you know, we've been leaning heavily on common dates, you know, so, you know, common dates, random dates. Um, you know, and I generally steer people to them because they're typically a dollar less per per ounce. And the current year is going to be last year's in a month's time anyway, you know. So the extra premium you pay to get a current year, um, I don't think is really worth it. Um, also, and I don't know what the rational, rationale is, um, 2026 Brittannias are now $3.60 wholesale. Well, the silver Brittannia always used to be about the lowest price. It would battle with the Kruger Rand, the Philharmonics, and the Armenian Art. They would bounce around, but generally for the last 5 years, the Brittannia has been the lowest value and the highest quality 1oz silver coin. Now, they've jumped to $3.60. So whether that is, there is no silver left in England. So the Royal Mint can't make enough. So the price is going up. Um, there's something I don't think it's excess purchases in the US. Um, I, I've heard from friends in the UK that, um, some dealers are sold out of all Royal Mint product, particularly the stuff that is tax-exempt. Because in, in England, in Great Britain, there's, there's an incredible benefit of having, uh, Brittannia coins that they're, there's no tax on the gains, completely exempt from, from, uh, state tax, income tax. So maybe people are realizing, you know, and the demand in the home market is sucking up all of production, so the premium is rising over here.
Great insights into the market. Um, I want to talk about the US officially adding silver as a critical mineral, along with a few other elements, including uranium. Um, we've also seen China announcing export controls on the metal. I believe that's set to kick in at the beginning of the new year. Russia's obviously stated that it's stacking silver as part of a strategic reserve, along with platinum and palladium and some other things. Do you think governments around the world are starting to wake up to silver's importance here? I know China has been on this for quite some time now, but with this addition to the US critical minerals list, it feels like in the West, perhaps they're waking up as well. What are your thoughts?
Um, it's gone past thinking. I know. I mean, there's just too much information how China has been handling the whole commodity market over decades. They've been preparing in many different ways. Um, I mean, silver is a byproduct from copper. A lot of silver comes from copper. Um, Arizona sends copper ore to China to get it smelted because we haven't got enough smelting capacity in the US. Are they giving us the silver back, the silver portion? Or could they say, "Yeah, we'll smelt your copper, but we're keeping the silver. We'll pay for it, but we're keeping it." What, what is Arizona going to do? They said, "No. Okay, we're, we're going to cease. We're going to cease refining that amount of copper." They've set a trap in so many ways. I mean, talk, talk about 3D chess. They have been planning and positioning in a myriad of ways to to win a commodity war before we even know we're fighting it. Um, so we've got, uh, an incredible problem in the US. We've got a problem we need to solve in weeks or months that's going to take years or decades to solve if there was sound governance and sound long-term investment. Um, two, two big ifs. Um, I don't think we've got sound governance, and I don't think the people of money are interested. Um, maybe they'll be interested when, when they can't buy their new car 'cause there's no copper for the wiring in the alternator. It's like, or they can't fly their plane because there's no rhenium. It's like, they can't order their new Learjet. Maybe then the big money will get interested. Um, but we've left it too, too little, too late. I mean, it, on a huge scale. There's two routes out of Africa by rail from, from central Africa, from the Congo and all the associated countries there. One goes east, one goes west. The one that goes east, China is upgrading so they can ship by rail really cheaply, more and more ore, more and more door, more and more concentrate. The one that goes west towards us needs $20 billion spending on it, but they've raised about $1 billion to upgrade it. No one's, no one's interested in putting up the money yet. The US government will, will hold $20 billion of Bitcoin. It's like they could have used that to build the railroad so we could have access to, to more, more key, key metals going forward and stabilize the commodity market. But no, short-term, whatever is, you know, whatever looks shiny and sparkly now. This is, it's deeply disturbing for me because it was so unnecessary. We, we needed you to put so little into maintaining secure supplies, and now we're all in a scrabble, adding it to the strategic top pile. The DA issuing edicts to acquire, you know, amounts of metal. It's too little, too late.
Yeah, that comes with so many critical minerals. You know, Rare Earths, obviously, also in the spotlight since that kind of spat between Trump and Xi over restriction, export restrictions coming out of China. That has yet to be fully resolved. Um, it's, uh, it's a very tenuous situation. We also have the very real issue of partisan politics in the US, and basically both sides saying, well, whatever the other side does is bad, whatever we do is good. So people can try to implement policies, and then the other party gets in power and cancels the policies simply because, well, they did it, so they're, they're wrong, so we'll, we'll, we'll get rid of that. So that it's very tough to make long-term change. Whereas China, obviously, it's not great to have that sort of government, um, for the people. Again, people probably attack me in the comments. What do you know, guys? I lived in China. It was a great place. It, it was quite free, but obviously you're, you're, it, it's a, it's a bit of a, I don't know what you want to call it, a bit of an authoritarian government system there. But they can at least look at the longer term because they don't have to worry about four-year election cycles. Um, and that allows them to plan for the long term in a lot of the ways which you outlined. Um, where do you see things right now when it comes to the manipulation of gold and silver prices by the bullion banks and other large institutions? I had Gary Savage on the show, and he said he believes they've completely lost control of the prices. He, he gave a price of $33 and, and around there silver is when they actually lost, um, control of the price. That could certainly explain part of the reason for the run both metals have been on. Do you still think they have some tricks up their sleeves, or, or is it game over on the manipulation side?
One thought I had, and hopefully somebody's watching this is way more educated in the matter will tell me whether this would work or not. If I was trying to keep the price of silver down and make money whilst doing it, and I knew that in a certain period of time, I could drive the price of silver down $5 and hence drive down the stock valuation of the junior miners 10, 20, 30%. I could lose on shorting the physical silver, but more than make a profit on the gains I'd make from shorting the junior miners. So, I'd get the result I want. I would temporarily drive down the price of silver, cause volatility, which scares off, still scares off people because you can buy it at $54 and two weeks later it's $48 or $49. You know, we've seen this. You know, I had a client bought a huge amount at $34, and it went down to $27. And we had a chat about it, and I said, "Yeah, you know, I can't, I can't do anything about it. You know, every ounce I sold you, I replaced immediately. I didn't wait for the price to drop before I, before I covered it." Um, so yes, I think there are sophisticated ways of manipulating, especially when you got this interconnected web, which never went away, that JP Morgan being prosecuted under the RICO Act, you know, organized crime. Um, all of the transcripts came out, you know, dealers would call their buddy at HSBC and say, "Yeah, at this time, we're both going to do this. We're going to crack. We're going to drive this, this way. Therefore, you can be on the long side, you know." So, I, I think it wouldn't be that hard with that much power and those connections to make a profit, at least causing volatility, and causing volatility will slow down public adoption of silver. I, you know, I think it definitely does. Every time we get a surge and more people come in, they get disheartened because instantly they're underwater for a few weeks or a month. But, but the time is getting shorter and shorter. So I think there's very, there's a lot of manipulation going on. But I also agree, it's reducing. Because if it was complete, silver would be trading around the oil sustaining cost of a silver mine, which I hear figures between $14 and $22. So it is definitely detached from its, um, industrial commodity price. Um, and so is gold. But I think a lot of gold mines are mining at $800, $900 an ounce, um, if it's a byproduct, you know, I mean, and that, that's another whole issue that does really, I don't, I'm sure people have done some in-depth studies, but the fact that precious metals are a byproduct from other mine operations, that's a natural suppressant on their price because that production will pretty well carry on, whatever the price of silver and gold are doing. Um, so I disagree with Gary there that it's over. No, I think they've got their fingers in, in the pie, and they're still slowing it down.
Yeah, very interesting thoughts there on being able to cause the silver miners to drop much more in value. That is certainly true and could be an interesting angle.
You've got a ratio trade there, haven't you? You, you've got an incredible, and with an almost 100% predictability.
You know, you look at so many, was it Silver Corp? They got a lot of assets in China. I mean, the, the volatility on that compared to the price of silver, it, it's a multiple. You know, it's two to three times in a percentage. So, if you know which way silver is going to go temporarily, you, you can, you can lose on, lose on that trade, but win on shorting a, a producer.
Yeah. What, where do you see things headed when it comes to the debt-based fiat system that we're living under? I feel like we're starting to see some cracks. I mean, we have been for, for several years or, or decades, some would say, but we're starting to see crises on multiple fronts be exposed in private credit, government debt, real estate, and more. How do you see this all unfolding? And when it really does hit the fan, will gold and perhaps silver, other commodities, will hard assets be the last real category standing, um, in the aftermath of of such a collapse?
I think potentially the only candidate standing. Um, timing, the timing is hard. We, we, if the people who are making the decisions, you know, the Federal Reserve and Treasury Secretary and governments around the world, do they actually understand what an inflationary fiat system is? I, I think there's levels of understanding because I've said it before, and Mises said it hundreds of years before me, and I'm repeating him. There's two ways an inflationary system ends. If you stop inflating it, you collapse. If you carry on inflating it, you collapse catastrophically. So, I, I fundamentally disagree with, uh, a lot of the sound money metal movements saying we should switch. We can't, we can't switch. There is no road to switch the current society to a sound money basis. The math doesn't add up because to do that, you have to reveal that most people's assets have little to no value. And when they realize that their whole lifestyle changes, they go into panic mode, sell everything that they can, crash the price of stuff, and, um, stop spending. So they stop buying at the same time. That's your collapse. So we can carry on inflating, and I think this is the reason why Doge was never actually meant to cut government spending because if it did, if we, if the US balanced its books, that would have brought down the whole world's financial system because it stops being inflationary, and it has to be inflationary until it collapses. So it, it's just a matter of when. And I, when I learned, came to a full and fuller understanding of this in 2017, I decided then, it's, um, every spare penny I'm buying silver. That's it. I will put off discretionary expenditure. I'll put off holidays. I'll put off whatever I need to put off. I'm just buying silver. Um, because it's coming. And then whether it comes tomorrow, or in 6 months' time, or 2 years' time, leave it too late to the end, we will, it, physical retail product will not be available. Um, you know, because there is just not enough. I mean, you could say there's enough at certain prices, um, but it sells out before it gets to its final valuation. It will carry on rising in value long after there isn't anything for retail people to.
We are starting to see gold get a little bit of attention from the mainstream press. A lot of it in a negative light. People saying, you know, articles being written, I believe the Financial Times ran one where they said, you know, gold, the reason for gold going up is not any of the reasons you're hearing. It's a speculative thing, and it could reverse at any time. So, you got to be careful. Um, recently, Steph Palmby appeared on Fox News. She was discussing how gold and gold miners have completely outperformed the broad market. And the host responded by saying, "Yeah, well, yeah, nothing stops, not nothing stops this train, but the market's ripping, and I don't want to get in front of this train." As if that's connected. There's nothing to do with the fact that gold's going up. But it was just one of those dismissive comments, like she was told what she's supposed to be saying about gold, or she's been programmed what she's supposed to say about gold, not even giving any thought or consideration to the details that Steph Pommboy was laying out, just responding, "Oh yeah, well, forget about that. Have you seen what Nvidia is doing?" Um, so how is it that we're at $4,000 gold, and talking heads in the mainstream press could care less, and are even downplaying it? You know, the conspiratorial-minded among us might say that this is all part of the, the overall government plan to turn people away from sound money, tying into the price manipulation as well. Um, but perhaps this shows that we're still very early in this trade. What do you think?
Oh, so I remember asking my dad when I maybe, I don't know, seven, eight years old, why is gold valuable? That's when it was $20 an ounce. It's like, to me, that seemed like, why is this tiny speck worth $20? You know, this tiny little coin or a sovereign he had some gold sovereigns. Why is a quarter ounce of gold, why is that worth £10? You know, it's like, and he goes, "Oh, it's a greater fool principle. You buy gold because you think someone more stupid than you will pay more for it." And he's a smart guy. He's a trained scientist, PhD, you know, lectured chemistry and physics. Now he describes the current system as synthetic fake. So he's worked it out now. But yes, if you grow up, and people around you are telling you that, and you want to be part of the crowd, and you don't want to stand out and look like you got a tin foil hat on, you, you'll follow the, you'll follow the flow. 80% of people are sheep. They follow orders. Almost doesn't matter what the order is. 80% will follow. 20% are contrarian and awkward, like, like me, you know. Well, why, why, why, um, so you mentioned the Financial Times. I think I, I saw somebody comment on that article. They, that's the same paper that said gold was done when it was $400. They said it's gone, and it's a relic, and it's good riddance. Let's get rid of it. You know, like, um, and my opinion, my understanding, my study leads me to think that it has only just started to give an account of the currency debasement. What we mentioned before, the theoretical units of wealth called dollars, euros, pounds, yen, yuan, rubles, you, you name it, all the way around the world. All fiat currency don't mean anything till you buy a good or service with it, because that's when it hits the fan, when people start spending or start panicking to to get out of the theoretical wealth into into real things that they need. And when they realize it's been a lie all along, but it can store value, and it is a lie. I mean, the dollars, I mean, in since 1970, what we got a penny left against gold? It's pathetic, isn't it? It's so for a so-called serious journalist to not even comment and think about and say, "Do you know what? We need to look at that," or "Let's have a look at that." Why are, was it the GDX is up 10 something percent in a year, and gold, you know, depending on which date you look at, 60, 70%? Um, but I, I would say the precious metals are just beginning to start to give an account for the currency debasement. Um, and the only way this Ponzi fiat system carries on for a little bit longer is to keep inflating it till the point that there's so much pressure it blows up. Um, and I think there can be a delay by going to a fully digital system where you get more control on velocity. Um, and you can ban people basically from buying anything you want. So, I think that can delay the system, but they'll still inflate that. Um, you know, just, just the US, for example, we're spending what, 25% of our expenditure now is interest.
It's madness.
We are not going to get a drop in, in effective interest rates. The, the market isn't the all-seeing, all-knowing entity people say it is, but it's not completely stupid. Like, it knows US debt should be five, 6, 7, 8% and rising if you want to take that risk holding dollars that are going to keep on debasing. Um, so, yeah, I, I would totally dismiss that journalist's lack of even being interested in, "Well, why is gold going up?"
Yeah, some, some great points. Rhenium, what, what's going on in the rhenium market right now? This is a metal you've been focused on. You're one of, if not the only bullion dealer in the United States that sells physical rhenium. Um, what, what's the latest going on in the market that you could give us an update on?
Market is getting tighter. So I've got a friend, friend of a friend who's on the ground in China. They've been doing a bit of research without trying to get arrested. Apparently, um, I haven't had this verified, um, but it looks like they're using two and a half tons of rhenium making jewelry in China now, which is interesting 'cause it's a way more interesting metal than platinum for jewelry. Uh, beautiful blue-gray, deep shine, much harder wearing, four times rarer in by production, yet still dramatically cheaper than platinum. Harder to work with, the highest melting point. Um, so that, that was interesting that that has started already. Um, China is still aggressively buying rhenium around the world. Um, there was a German trader recently trying to find half a ton, 500 kilos. He couldn't find it in Europe. So he approached one of my suppliers, and my suppliers said, "Where's it going?" And he, and he let it slip, but it was going to go to China. So he said, "No, I'm not, I'm not selling to you. You, you find it from somewhere else." So that they're aggressively using European dealers to secure more rhenium in Europe and in the US. Um, so that tells me that China knows where this is going, and they want to increase their stranglehold. Um, and I didn't realize they had that much of an effective control because again, getting back to smelting copper, eight out of the 22 largest smelters in the world are in China. So Chile sends copper to China. We send copper to China. Africa, most of the ore, I think all of the ore in Africa goes to China for smelting. Well, that's where rhenium comes from. Some platinum in some copper deposits have rhenium in. So if China has been returning that, they can stop returning that. If they haven't, they've been stockpiling it, knowing, predicting what's going on with the ever-increasing aviation demand. I mean, 40,000 civilian aircraft looks like in the next 10 to 15 years. 13,000 military jets. Um, with that tragic recent UPS cargo plane, uh, crash, well, all of those planes of that era are grounded. So all of the haulage companies are desperately trying to find replacement cargo planes. Some of those will have to be new planes. So, we are, we've hit a wall with with rhenium where it was a metal, there was never enough for the demands that were going to come in the future for it. Um, and I think we, we're really close now to an explosive price breakout because all of its uses are very high-value uses. So they're almost price insensitive. It would be an inconvenience if they have to charge another $2 million for a plane, you know, that cost $200 million, but they're still going to build it, and they're still going to get flown. Um, particularly the military fighter jets where governments don't have bottomless pockets. They just dip into our pockets every time they want to spend a, a trillion dollars on the defense budget. They just type up some more units of currency and steal it from us.
Well, guys, reach out to Ian if you want to get a hold of some physical rhenium. The numbers on the bottom of your screen right now. Uh, Ian, tell us about Arc Silver, Gold, Osmium. Any specials you may have? Um, and any other light you want to shed on, on, on the company?
Uh, yeah, we work hard every day to to source at the lowest price. We're highly competitive. I believe in transparency. It's what I started telling people, what the wholesale premium is. Look, we're not making, when we charge $5 on an American Eagle, we're not making $5 per eagle. We're making a dollar, maybe, or, you know. So I, I just, let's, let's just be transparent. This is a low margin. Even in silver now, this is a low margin business. I mean, $1 on $50, um, that's just a few percent. There's not many businesses have such a low markup. Um, so we work hard every day. Um, we're nimble because we're buying in smaller quantities than the big dealers who have to have access to much larger inventory. Um, so we, we can cherry-pick round. Um, we got great relationships with the wholesalers. So, I will call them up once or twice a day, find out what's coming in, what the deals are, and often I'll get in before anybody, before they even get advertised to to the wider trade. Um, so my favorite at the moment, I think, is this, um, Canadian Saber-Tooth Cat 2 oz. So, we've got those at $3 premium, which is the lowest I think they've ever been since since they've been out since 2023. So, we bought up the last few boxes of those. We got great deals. Um, just our choice. 10 oz bars might not be the prettiest, but we'll pick you nice, clean, sharp looking ones. They may be pressed. They may.
I like those ones. Those are silver towns, right?
Uh, yeah. These are silver towns. Yeah, just.
Yeah, I like those.
Just crude, honest, cheap, low premium.
Um, then we have got for the collector, we got some nice Engelhards. Uh, we get some interesting stuff like a JM in its original box. 100.
Wow.
Not often you'll find one in its original box.
So that's cool. We, we will start getting them on the website eventually. We even got this Engelhard in its original packaging. These are fun, and although the premium's higher, it's still a great time to snag a piece of history like that. And we've got all the usual suspects. Maples, Eagles, Philharmonics, Kruger Grands, Brittannias, Kangaroos, um, 90% quarters, dimes, halves, dollars, pretty well everything we've got.
Great. Well, that number is on the bottom of the screen. You can also email Ian at ian@arcgsgo.com. Ian, fantastic conversation as always. Thank you for coming on and sharing your knowledge with the audience.
Thank you, Jesse. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up to date with the latest episodes.