Transcription
It looks like Malik Neighbors isn't on the pup list to start training camp. This is huge. He's one of the guys that could make or break your fantasy football season.
Last year on this video, we talked about guys like Rasheed Rice, who ended up almost making everybody's season until he and Mahomes both got hurt at the end of the year. T Higgins, who was making your fantasy football season when Joe Burrow was healthy, but that was always the risk. Travis Hunter didn't do anything last year and he's being drafted anywhere from the fourth to seventh round. You had Devon Aan in there, huge hit from last year, 20 plus points a right. Is Pacheco didn't do anything. Fifth or sixth round running back did nothing. Killed you. David Montgomery didn't really do anything last year. The least productive year on the Lions by far and then Cooper Cup really didn't do anything, right? And so these guys last year did make or break your fantasy football season.
And I guess let's just start with Malik Neighbors here. So So the news is that Malik Neighbors avoids the uh the training camp Pup list. And that's an important distinction because the training campus, as I understand, is different than the actual regular season pup list, right? And so they're two different things. And just because somebody avoids going on the pup list for training camp doesn't necessarily mean that they're going to be ready for week one and they're going to play in week one. Now it's obviously not a negative sign for Malik Neighbors who when you're looking at his ADP recently depending on where you're drafting he's been going mostly like third and fourth round right? So for example like just pulling up his ADP here. Um you know in the Flock expert consensus he's into the third already on Sleeper he his ADP is the second round. In ESPN it's the fourth. in Yahoo. It's the four five turn on underdog leagues now. So underdog, this is most recent ADP. Now he's late third, mid- third on CBS, uh mid fourth on FFPC. And so we're looking across platforms there, he's going anywhere from the third or fourth round. I've done a real money fantasy draft where he's already gone in the second round. And my prediction is because of the news that he's not going to be on the pup list. He's probably going to start going in the second round.
Malik Neighbors is going to make or break your fantasy leagues this year if you draft him. I'm going to tell you why we're not necessarily. When you're looking at his floor and his risk scores according to the algorithm, according to the four factors database that we have, his floor is an eight. His risk is a nine. He's an extremely high floor player if he plays. The risk is obviously because of well, I think it's a couple things. The injury is obviously the number one thing by far, but also you've got a new offensive system there, an unknown at quarterback with Jackson Dart. There's a lot going on, but again, he's coming off of a pretty serious ACL and meniscus injury. If you draft him, it's all about it's all about price. It's all about cost and where you're picking Malik Neighbors. People are already coming out and saying, creators, fans, Giants, people, whatever. Malik Neighbors is absolutely going to be a steal at his price. Like, I hope you bought the discount, blah blah blah. Materially, nothing exactly changed with the Malik Neighbors newslet the the pup list for training camp. He still could go on the P list for the regular season, but at the same time, it does not change the fact that when you're drafting Malik Neighbors, you're drafting somebody that is coming one year off of a pretty ugly knee injury to be honest with you, where we've seen recently that he's had trouble, for example, running at the whatever the baseball game was. Not to mention, had to have cleanup surgery, and that wasn't all that long ago. And so, while I love Malik Neighbors, and while I think next year he's going to be one of the best, I think he's going to be a first- round pick next year. Of course, he should be. I think he's one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, hands down, not even close. My whole thing with Malik Neighbors is if you want Malik Neighbors on your fantasy team, just buy him four weeks into the season. >> His price is almost certainly going to be cheaper, especially if he starts going in the second, early, third round. His price is going to be cheaper after the first four weeks after people see what Malik Dabers does. He's not coming out there and dropping 20 points three straight weeks when he comes back off his knee injury. In fact, there's no guarantee that he's going to play the first four weeks. And so my thing is, you know, with Malik Neighbors, the big risk in that is if you draft a player like Malik Neighbors, especially with your second or third round pick where it is imperative that those guys really hit for your fantasy team, score a lot of points so you can put you up or put you in a good position to make the playoffs. You draft Malle Neighbors there and he doesn't produce for you in the first four weeks, you're missing a large portion of what your production is supposed to be from that guy you draft in the second, third round.
>> Yeah. Right now he's going at the tail end of the third round across all ADP sources, ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, etc. And again, he went in the second one of our drafts of the night. So, like, he's already moving up. And >> I just don't think you can afford to take that loss because if it puts you behind and you start 0 and 0 and three or 0 and four or one and four or one and three, it's really hard to recover from that. You're all of the sudden the room for error in your entire fantasy football season really closes to where you can't make any mistakes or you're probably not going to make the playoffs. I think what's going to happen is I think the teams that draft Malik Neighbors are going to end up kind of struggling through the first four or five weeks. And I think the teams that didn't draft Malik Neighbors are going to be in a really good position to buy Malik Neighbors be patient with him when he does come back for the playoffs and actually starts performing at close to uh the level that he was able to before he was injured. Right? If we're going to see that Malik Neighbors this year, it's going to be at the end of the season. And of course, if somebody wants to take the risk and draft Malik Neighbors in the second or third round and then try to make it through and maybe you get lucky, you go three and one or four and 0 or 4 in one and you've got Malik Neighbors on your team, sure, you you're going to win your fantasy football league. But but the risk is again the risk score is a nine here for a reason. That is a huge ginormous if that you can make it through that stretch of games unless you're playing in a cupcake taco league. That's a huge stretch to ask like I I'm I'm going to be three in one, four in one, even four and two through the first six weeks. That's tough to ask of a guy who again is not going to be anywhere near full strength at least for the first couple weeks of the season and who knows if he'll be a full strength all year. I I'm not comfortable taking this guy until the fourth round. And he's not going to go there. He's going to go in the third and occasionally you're going to have people take him in the second. I'm just telling you right now, one of the quickest ways to derail your entire fantasy football season, you get one crack at this, is drafting injured players or players coming off of injuries. I love Malik Neighbors and again, I think he's one of the best young wide receivers in in the NFL. not the best young wide receiver in the NFL. I think he's incredible at football, but for my fantasy team this year, I don't trust him. And when I do trust him, I think I'm going to be able to buy him from the teams in my league. Obviously, I don't know that for sure, but I don't want to take the risk that I draft Malik Neighbors and I end up starting my season one and four because as we know in fantasy football, it's very hard to recover from that. So, Malik Neighbors, obviously, buyer beware. I'm comfortable. I think you would agree fourth round is where we feel really comfortable taking him. It gets you you get him in the fourth.
>> That's where I start feeling maybe comfortable if I'm being honest.
>> Like I mean, I'm not taking this guy in the third. It's the same to me. It's the same exact story as Rasheed Rice last year. Why would I be incentivized to draft Rasheed Rice when I can just buy him in the middle of the season? Because for whatever reason, psychologically people people like penalize guys like Rice when they're not producing two weeks into the season in the middle of their suspension, injury, pup list, whatever. Even though every week every week they should be gaining value because they're closer to return usually backwards, right? It ends up being backwards and and that's why I would rather invest in neighbors in season. That's just my personal take.
Um, one guy that I think is very, very interesting this season when it comes to his situation in Arizona is Jeremiah Love. Jeremiah Love was a top four selection in the NFL draft this season. Top three. He was the third overall pick and he he's one of the better talents that we've seen in recent memory. You can really equate him from a talent perspective to guys like Bejian Robinson and Ashton Jensen. And when you take a trip down memory lane just a couple years ago when Bjav Robinson was a rookie running back for the Atlanta Falcons, he was going at the tail end of the first round in your reddraft leagues. Ashton Jenty last season was going one two turn oftentimes being selected in the late first round of your reddraft leagues. Now when you look at the production output that both of those guys had as rookies, those guys have at least been remembered, their rookie seasons have been remembered as big time busts. super disappointing, lost you fantasy leagues and at price that is correct. But when you look at their actual production as rookies, it wasn't too shabby given the horrible situations that they were in respectively. Bejon Robinson was stuck in a committee, a true 50/50 split backfield between him and Tyler Algier because Arthur Smith is the most delusional play caller of all time and he still scored 14 and a half points per game. Ashen Genty was in one of the worst offenses we have ever seen, period. And he scored 14 and a half points per game. And again, I'm not defending the production level of those guys at investment at late first round prices, where they were going as rookies, respectively, but you have to understand the context again of where they were going at price relative to where Jeremiah Love this season is going at price because his floor risk combo is going to be very similar to what those guys' floor risk combos were as as rookies. It's he's he's got a floor score of like five because you are probably at the beginning of the season going to see some work go to James Connor. Yes, James Connor and Tyler Algier. Uh both of those guys are going to get a decent amount of opportunity. It's literally come out of the head coach's mouth that they want to, you know, ease Jeremiah Love into his role. So, you might see a little bit of a slow start for Jeremiah Love, but unlike Bejon and Ashton Jensy, it's actually being baked into his price at this point. It's being baked into Jeremiah Love's price that he's probably going to start slow and that his floor is lower than what people might have hoped for compared to guys like Be John and Jensy in their rookie seasons. Jeremiah Love's ADP has settled to the late second round. I've seen him fall to like the 301 at times. And I will say for a for a video that's titled this player can make or break your fantasy season. I think at two three turn prices for Jeremiah Love, he is a lot more likely to make your fantasy season and a lot less likely to break it. I I don't think at that price point he's going to break it actually because his floor his production floor outcome when you just look at the situations that Bejan and Jensy have had to deal with respectively over the last couple of years as rookies and what their production output actually ended up being. Let's say Jeremiah Love produces at the same level. Let's say he only produces at 14 to 15 point per game levels. At the two three turn, that is so much more reasonable and a lot more like at ADP production level. A little bit below, but almost to you almost to like respectable enough that it's not going to kill you relative to if he was going at the one two turn. That is a significant gap. You're talking about a totally different tier. you're talking about matching Jeremiah Love up with Jamir Gibbs or Bejon Robinson if you're drafting at the 101 or the 102. Whereas in previous seasons you were matching up Bejian Robinson and Ashton Jensy as rookies with guys like uh Nico Collins or um Drake London or AJ Brown guys that were a little bit more questionable on an annual basis that weren't as guaranteed as your running backs now who are like proven veterans and Bjan and Jamir Gibbs. That upside combination with Jeremiah Love and one of the running backs at at the 101 102 is absolutely lethal. And I do think the floor is much higher and I don't think it's going to kill you if you take a shot on him there at that price point. The the recent rookie running back history with guys of that talent caliber of Jeremiah Love has not been pretty. But again, it's all price dependent and you're getting a full round discount on Jeremiah Love compared to the other guys in the last couple of years. So, I'm not against Love's price this year. Just got to know that his floor is you're looking at maybe like 13 to 15 point per game floor uh close to what you saw with Bjan and Jensen. Got the risk and floor and not to mention upside and situational scores for all of these guys built into the algorithm. Again, you can use the algorithm. It'll help you crush your draft. It's any platform, any league setting combination. If you got three tight ends and a one-point titan premium, boom, we got you. If you've got two superflex spots, we've got rankings for that. Again, we've got rankings for every single league setting combination, no matter where you play fantasy football. And again, what it's going to do is help you pick your strategy, help you build your roster where you are building it to win your fantasy football leagues. You're taking opportunity costs into account, things like that. And again, you can get everything on the site, the ADP, you can get the flock rankings, you get the flock overlay tool, you can get the trade calculator, and you can get again personalized advice questions from Nathan and I to ask us start sit questions on our streams during the season. So, go check it out. It's 34 $34 with code domain. you get full access to all of this for the entire NFL season and actually the entire year. So, go check it out. I've got the link pen in the comment. You can use code domain when you sign up, get the algorithm as well, but um it's a season pass with code domain.
Okay, so um Christian Watson's a guy we've already said. I mean, spoiler alert, like we've already said we're not drafting him. Um, part of the reason for this is, you know, we talked about in our, this is kind of nice that we did like the offense video because part of the reason the Packers offense was buried so low in that video, which I think some people actually took some issue with that and I genuinely don't understand why because I mean outside of Josh Jacobs, like which of those wide receivers are we actually drafting in the top four rounds? None of them, right? I think Christian Watson has an ADP of somewhere in like the uh fifth actually sixth round it should be, which is again nothing crazy, right? Tucker Craft goes uh somewhere in the sixth, seventh round as well. I do understand the appeal with Christian Watson though and and and truthfully, I mean, let's just pull up let's pull up an argument that does not make our case at all and just be kind of uh I'll play kind of devil's advocate here. The reception perception profile for Christian Watson. You know, obviously he's not running a ton of these routes here, right? He's not running a ton of curls. He's not running a ton of slants, things like that. You're looking at the rest of his route tree here. His success rates were pretty high on a lot of these routes, right? in his in his uh success rate versus different types of coverage here. Not bad, right? 60th percentile against press coverage, 53rd against uh zone, and then 35th percentile against man coverage. Now, those also aren't fantastic numbers, but the reason again that we're not in on Christian Watson is not because we don't believe in Christian Watson the talent. I think truthfully, if Christian Watson, for example, were to be in the Detroit Lions offense instead of Jameson Williams, I think I'd be pretty interested in Christian Watson this year. Part of the reason I and I would still be hesitant because again one of the reasons we're not super interested in drafting Christian Watson this year is because he's not really been able to string together an entire season where he's been healthy in the NFL. Not one time. And so that's a pattern that you have to kind of identify and take into account when you're drafting these guys. But the other reason again we covered in the offensive video is that the Packers while they do have a fairly high production output from a fantasy football standpoint, they spread the ball around so much that it's not concentrated at all. it's really not concentrated. Not to mention, I mean, you're talking about the role of Tucker Craft in that offense. Tucker Craft last year wasn't necessarily a guy that you saw getting a bunch of dump downs and short passes and he was a PPR merchant. He was getting a lot of big plays, right? And so, Nathan, can you tell me what week uh Christian W or uh Tucker Craft went down last year? I can't remember. I think it was like week six.
>> Craft went down in the middle of week eight. Um, actually, sorry, the middle of week nine. He got 49% of the snaps against Carolina and then he went down with the ACL.
>> Okay, cool. So, Christian Watson in that time frame averaged 12.5 points per game, which is not bad at all. Um, it's uh it's it's flexible obviously. Uh, after Tucker Craft went out,
>> he he only he only played one game in that stretch. He didn't come back till week eight.
>> Oh, so that's just one game. So, we didn't see them 12 and a half points.
>> So, we didn't even see them on the field together.
>> One game. Week eight, he had 12 and a half points and Craft had 36.
>> Okay, so there you go. Um my I was kind of trying to see there what the splits were of Watson with or without with with or without Craft on the field. But again to my point he missed part of the season because he was injured, right? And so there is also that really with Christian Watson what it comes down to is again it's not a concentrated enough passing attack for me to really think that Christian Watson's going to make a tangible difference there in terms of your flex spots. And I know he did that at times last year but that was before you had or that was when you didn't have Tucker Craft on the field. And I think the return of Tucker Craft does make a difference. It would be inconsistent logic for us to say that we are out on Christian Watson and also out on Tucker Craft. We genuinely think that Tucker Craft is going to be the top pass catching offense or option in that offense this year. And that's just a take, right? But with Watson again, he is going to make or break your fantasy football season. Right now, um, his ADP is kind of all over the place depending on what platform that you draft on. I've I've been seeing him go in like the sixth round a lot. I have him here at the 56 turn actually. Uh, and
>> if Watson falls to the late six, you kind of got to take him. And again, he actually he is in a lot of spots, right? Uh Flock Expert Consensus has him kind of right at the beginning of the uh the sixth round. ESPN has him in the mid six. ES or sorry, Sleeper has a mid6. ESPN has him in the mid7th right now. So on in ESPN drafts, I'm absolutely willing to take my shot on Christian Watson. In fact, I was in a draft if we put the screenshot up where I took Christian Watson and I think it was at the 69 and I just didn't have any better options there. And so there there does become a price where the upside of Christian Watson does outweigh everybody around him and that's when you would take him. Again, for me, that's just not like the fifth round and I'm not going to take him in the fifth round this year. It's all going to depend on where his ADP settles. But again, the the injury history and the fact that his target volume has always been fairly low and it's always been one of the most it's always the it's actually it always is the most spread around offensive distribution from a passing game standpoint in the NFL. Like it is number one. That's huge. And so with Watson again, I think he could make or break a fantasy football season. At fifth round prices, I'm not willing to take that risk. Sixth round better. Late sixth into the seventh, that's where you start, you start clicking Christian Watson. And that is honestly a very good caveat to like when we say we're not ever going to draft a player. There are times where we'll draft a player. It's all price dependent. Every player has a price where we draft him.
>> I think both of us will end up having a share or two of our bets a little bit.
>> I already have a share of Bachelot and we'll talk about here next. But I talk about Nico.
>> Yeah, Nico is an interesting guy. he is most seasons because he's just such a polarizing player. When he's healthy and when Houston is at their best offensively, he is unstoppable. I mean, his upside is second to none across the league at the wide receiver position. The issue with Nico is I actually view him very very similar to T. Higgins. Obviously, Nico is a wide receiver one and a less explosive offense where Higgins is wide receiver two and a more explosive offense. So, it ends up kind of canceling out there. But, both of them have great touchdown upside, great big play ability. They're not requiring high levels of target volume to be ultra productive week in and week out. And when when Nico Collins is on the field and when he's healthy again, his floor is so high. His his floor risk is a seven. And that absolutely reigns true when you look at his game log from last year when he was on the field. 15 games. He only had a couple of singledigit games when he was uh a full go. Week one, he only had five and a half points. Week seven, 6.7. Week 12, 8.5. and then a couple singledigit performances in weeks 16 to 17 towards the end of the year when they were winding down and had clinched at that point. Like his big weeks are incredible. He's scoring well over 20 points often. He more often than not is scoring 15 plus points when he's not over the 20 point threshold. He's the only threat there and that's really the only guy who's going to be consistently productive in that offense anyways because CJ Stout is so questionable at the quarterback position and he's so inconsistent as a passer has turned into that since his rookie season. And that's going to be one of the biggest issues and one one of the biggest risks with Nico Collins is not only does he have a soft tissue injury history where his hamstrings are probably only better than Christian Watson's and it's it's CJ Stout and his QB troubles. like what is Houston really offering you from a week to week on a week- toeek basis from a overall production upside perspective when their defense is really what they want to lean on and they want to be in lowscoring games where they just punish you and they run the ball and they slow the game down and they eat up clock like as a as a Colts fan I know this O2 well we have to play them twice a year and they do this every single time we play them I watch them play plenty of other teams as well and they do this with pretty much every team that they want to play because they know that they don't have the offensive firepower given Straoud's capabilities and their their play calling capabilities honestly to really be as explosive as they would want to be. And that's going to be the biggest concern with Nico is like while you did see a lot of consistency across the board with Nico Collins, when do you see the 30 plus point games, you actually didn't see him at all last year. You saw it once in 2024 when he was also banged up and missed five games. In 2023, which was C CJ Stra's rookie season, you saw that the most amount of times you saw that uh 30 plus point performances three times and a lot of 20 plus point games as well. You the the booms were so so good with Nico that season and that was C CJ Strad when he was playing his best football as a quarterback. So, you've got a lot weighing on CJ Strad's shoulders um asking him to improve and just be more consistent as a passer. I think to raise Nico Collins ceiling even higher um than what we've seen the last couple of years and then you have to expect Nico to be healthy and again you're taking him at the two-3 term where you're taking Jeremiah Love as well. So if you're going to take a wide receiver shot this is one of the guys that you're probably looking at alongside Pickkins and Chris Ave too and you just have to be aware like you're probably going to miss a couple games with Nico and if he misses any more than like three games this season he's probably going to cost you he could cost you a playoff birth just by miss time alone. So price, I think Nico Collins price is totally merited and totally reasonable, similar to where T. Higgins is normally priced in most normal years. And uh and because of that, I would just highly recommend make sure you've locked down guaranteed safety in the first round if you're going to draft Nico at the two three turn. If you're drafting Nico paired with like Jamar Chase or JSN or Bua and you're going double wide receiver, oh my gosh, that that terrifies the crap out of me. You better have Bejon or Gibbs if you're drafting Nico.
You slowly started to see Bucky Irving's ADP drop down boards. In fact, in some of the real money drafts that I've already done this season, I've seen Bucky Irving go in the fifth round. And when you're looking again at all ADP sources here, I mean, you're consistently seeing Bucky go now at the end of the fourth round. The sleeper ADP is somewhere in the third round. I don't buy that for a second. His Yahoo ADP is the fifth round. It's the 52 right now. Um, and everywhere else he's about, you know, in between the fourth and the fifth round, right? This is not bad prices for a guy that when you're talking about a couple years ago was a running back one in fantasy football. But there are plenty of questions about Buck Irving this year. And it's the reason why uh his floor is very high when he's on the field. He's very consistent on a week- toeek basis. The risk is still pretty high here with a seven. Part of the reason for this is he's coming off of a shoulder injury that even when we got an update like a month ago, hadn't fully healed. He still wasn't back. And I think I actually do think um he did end up coming back for the last practice. Seems doing limited stuff on the side like but obviously you know we started training camp today uh as we're recording this video I think this is coming out Wednesday recording this on Tuesday um I haven't seen anything about Bucky today I'm going to go ahead and search because obviously this information can get very old very quickly here at this time which is great because it means we actually have stuff going on um but they obviously they go and sign Kenneth Gainwell this offseason and and people are kind of trying to figure out what type of role Kenneth Gwell is going to have there how much of an effect he's going to have on Bucky Irving The thing about Bucky Irving is last year when he, you know, not only last year, well, he was injured for a lot of last year. And you could say, okay, he had saw the production dip because of the injury. And I would say, okay, maybe that's true. He only dropped uh on a points per game basis, he played seven less games, but he only dropped a point last year. Do remember that when you're talking about like from an points per game standpoint, his rookie year in 2024, he was the running back 19 in points per game. Part of the reason Buck Ivy ended his season so well is because he played the entire year. He ended up as the running back 13. But contrary to popular belief here, and actually contrary to my own belief, because I thought he was a low running back one, Bucker's never been a a running back one in fantasy football. His best year was his rookie year, and it was when his snap percentage was 46%. Last year, you saw that tick up to 63%. And what happened? You saw his yards per attempt drop two full yards from 5.4 to 3.4 yards per attempt. This shouldn't come across as surprising. You follow backups that go from being the second string guy to becoming the starter there. I mean again on a points on a carries per game basis like he was getting uh around 17 carries per game last year and he was less efficient because of it and part of it was the situation was a little tough. Obviously Baker was banged up last year but part of it also was just that you know he stepped into a bigger workload and he wasn't as efficient which is it's a tale as old as time with running backs that go from being either in a heavy committee or a backup to becoming a starter. I think that raises huge questions about what Bucky Irving is going to do this year because I think what we've seen from him so far is that his ceiling is again a high-end running back two, not even a running back one. That being said, Bucky is playing in an offense where the situation's pretty good. I don't think Kenneth Genill takes away from him so much that he's not going to be the guy there this year. I still think Bucky Irving is going to get the red zone touches. I still think Bucky Irving is going to get the touches inside the five. I still think that Bucky Irving can get some receiving work, right? because you saw last year Bucky actually had three receiving touchdowns last year. Uh and you're looking he had 277 receiving yards on 35 targets in 10 games. So that's not bad at all for a guy like Bucky Irving. But again, people are being very conservative with him because there are lots of questions about both the injury and the dip in efficiency we saw last year with an increased workload. Personally for me, I have a hard time tapping Bucky Irving in in what the the the at the four five turn. He was in the fifth round last night. And you know, if he gets to the late fifth, I think he becomes a pretty good value there, right? And I just don't think that's happening all too often. There are some ADP sources that are saying it's happening. I don't think in most leagues that you're getting Bucky Irving at that point. And for that reason, I don't feel like I'm going to find myself drafting a whole lot of Bucky this offseason. When you're looking at the range of Buckeyy's going around, he is just sitting in that absolute money wide receiver range. I just like the wide receivers there a lot better. And and I love I love Bucky, you know, because he's a running back as well. But you've also got DeAndre Swift being drafted next to him. And I just feel like DeAndre Swift for me feels a little bit safer than Bucky Irving because there's a lot less questions. Yeah, sure. DeAndre Swift's going to share a backfield, but like he's not hurt. He's in a better offense and we know that even when he does share a backfield, similar to like a Kiron Williams, he's still going to be the main producer in terms of fantasy points. There's just a lot of guys around Bucky that I would prefer to have. And also the way you're drafting Bucky right now at the four five turn, you probably should already have two running backs if you're drafting at the one one through 14 by the time you get to that fourth fifth round area. And so look, if you're drafting him as your running back three, if you're drafting at the 104 or lower and you're drafting your running back three in the fifth round, I'm okay with that. Anywhere in the late in the late fifth, I get really okay with it. But again, Buckyy's a guy that people have a lot of questions on this year. My take with Bies, I think it's going to be pretty hard to draft him. I think he might be a high floor player, which actually, you know, on a week-to-eek basis, he is a high floor player. I don't think the upside's all that good, and I do think there is some risk baked in that I'm not necessarily willing to take the shot on at his current price in fantasy football.
>> Terry McLaren is questionable this year as well because number one, he's coming off of a hamstring injury that really lingered all season last year and now he's 30 years old, right? He's not a spring chicken at all. You also have plenty of questions about Jaden Daniels who's coming back from injuries that he struggled with last season. And when you look at those guys and when you look at Terry specifically when he was playing without Jaden Daniels last year, it was really, really ugly. Everything that you saw in 2024, all the magic, all the touchdowns, all the big playability, all the target volume, which actually was pretty similar to what we see every year for Terry, it didn't really change. It was just the touchdowns. Um, all that stuff that you saw with Terry, just more efficiency with Jaden Daniels at quarterback, it all just went away last season. And really with Terry this year, you haven't seen that much of a value dip compared to where he was being priced heading into 2025. And that scares me a little bit because if you were a Terry McLaren investor last year, Avery knows this all too well from the Flock League, it was maddening owning him and it really really hurt him when it came to the playoffs because of just his week-toeek floor. When you're looking at Terry McLaren this year, I think that a lot of people view the Washington Commanders as some offense that actually has a lot of like untapped potential and a lot of high production. I think this is a pretty overrated offense. There's nobody there. It's Terry McLaren and Jaden Daniels and that is it.
>> It's extremely overrated for fantasy purposes.
>> It's horrible for fantasy purposes. It really is. And people will say, "Well, that's great for Terry McLaren because he's the only threat there." You sure about that? Because last time I checked, being the only threat in an offense that defenses really only have to respect you, that means that they can double Terry McLaren all day and they can just force Jaden Daniel to give these dump offs to these irrelevant tight ends and rookie wide receivers that he's not developed chemistry with whatsoever. So, I think Terry McLaren's floor, honestly, with it with it grading out as as a seven, I think that's even a little bit the algorithm I think has him graded a little bit too high for what his potential output could be this year. And then you look at his risk, and I do think that is correct. Is absolutely 100% a 10. He's coming off of a season where he missed six games and he's 30 years old. There's absolutely 100% a ton of risk that should be baked into his price and he's going mid to tail end of the fourth round. When you're looking at some other guys there, specifically at the wide receiver position that are just objectively in better situations, Lab Manki and Jaylen Wadd, those guys as selections over Terry are a no-brainer for me. Devonte Adams, I think, is where it becomes debatable. I think those guys should be in the same conversation in the same breath. But there are some running backs, too. I I think before the running back drop off with uh Scataboo and Bucky Irving and Quinn Shaw Judkins, there's a massive drop off um after like DeAndre Swift and David Montgomery in the mid to late fifth where then you're taking a shot on like a Bial Tutin and then there's like nobody after that. So, I think there Terry McLaren is in this awkward range of like running backs that are really questionable like Bucky Irving, but you probably want to take a shot on them before you have zero chance of getting a reliable running back after that. And then again, other wide receivers in this range who are just in better offenses that are more friendly for their production output. again like Terry McLaren being totally dependent on his health while also being dependent on Jaden Daniels being on the field at the same time has now become a significant question mark and being the only threat in that receiving game right now is a big big concern for me. I will say by the time that this video comes out there's a chance that Stfane Diggs does sign with Washington. That is very possible. There's been a ton of buzz and a ton of talk about Washington signing a wide receiver ever since they failed to sign Alec Pierce in the offseason. and Brandon Iayuk was being tied to that team and now Brandon Iayuk is looking like he's not going to sign anywhere because he's an absolute tool on social media and nobody wants that problem in the locker room. I will say if Stfan Diggs goes to Washington that does make Terry McLaren and his price point for me a lot more palatable because then you actually open up the field for him to be a lot more impactful in the role that he plays there offensively. Stfan Diggs is a perfect complement to what Terry McLaren can offer there. Terry can line up on the outside exclusively, be your deep threat, contested catch guy with big play opportunity, and then Stfan Diggs will just play out of the slot, work the shorts intermediate game just like he did in New England. And that'll be a nice little pairing. But again, even though that's that even with that being the best case scenario, you're talking about another 32year-old wide receiver who's well past his prime and he has to stay healthy as well. So just a lot of moving parts here with not a lot of talent to go around in an offense that's just very, very overrated. There are a lot of shots in the mid to late fourth that I would rather take over Terry this season.
>> And again, like these are guys that we're not in on some of them. Some of these guys we are very out on. We mentioned them. Like I mean, there's there's a lot of dudes here. And actually, you know, Terry is a guy that it's very risky, but I I can
>> he could totally pay off.
>> I I feel the pull to the dark side with Terry again. I'm like, oo, I could draft him again this year and feel
>> if they sign Diggs, I feel better about it.
>> Honestly, you have to. And um, you know,
>> Debo is the perfect type of wide receiver there also to just take away from him, too. like dbo what dbo did last year especially because they got training camp reps it was like yeah really did take away from derry like
>> digs is more friendly than
>> dig is definitely more complimentary so
>> there you go if you enjoy the video drop a like make sure you're subscribed as well if you play fantasy football subscribing is effortless it lets you get our videos when they first come out and it really helps us grow the channel continue to put out really high quality videos help support our editors and things like that so we really appreciate you guys doing that go check out the season pass 34 bucks if you want to access the algorithm our tool and of course a bunch of other tools on the flock site for the entire year only thing you need fantasy football leagues this year. Appreciate you guys. Thanks for watching. We'll see you soon.