Transcription
Only two teams on bye this week, so you should actually have decent options at the running back position. Sadly, if you have Jonathan Taylor, you're not going to be able to start him. So, for that reason, there's only one running back in the S tier category. That's going to be Christian McCaffrey. I know we have a lot of people that are crying about McCaffrey last week, at least they were in the live stream on Sunday night. And my response to that is, "Suck it up, buttercup." He had 10 targets, 66 receiving yards. He is still sitting here this season averaging 25 points per game, which is ridiculous. It's better than any running back in the NFL last season. The only reason it doesn't seem that crazy right now is Jonathan Taylor's Jonathan Taylor. Um, but right now he is sitting here averaging nine targets a game, which is actually a career-high for McCaffrey. This matchup at Arizona is one in which the Niners project to score a ton of points.
Going over to A tier, we are going to have De'Von Achane higher in these rankings than he has been all season. And the big surprise for me this week as we looked at sportsbook projections were that they have the Miami Dolphins with an implied team total of 25 points. The only teams that I see that are supposed to score more points than the Miami Dolphins this week, according to Vegas Sportsbooks, are the Niners, the Bills, the Cowboys, the Packers, the Patriots, the Rams, the Steelers, and I'm looking, looking, and I think that's about it. So Miami, heavy favorites here playing against the Commanders, while at the same time they're supposed to score a ton. De'Von Achane coming off a game where he just dropped 40 points, just had 20 carries for the second time this season.
Moving over to Bijan Robinson. Bijan, well, maybe it was very disappointing this past week because, yeah, he did have Tyler Allgeier coming in with the rushing touchdowns. Um, still, he did have double-digit fantasy points. You have a relatively nice floor here just from a volume perspective. Bijan Robinson this season is averaging 15 carries a game. He's averaging six targets a game, 421 total opportunities. And this matchup against the Carolina Panthers is one in which the Atlanta Falcons are favored by about three and a half points.
Um, James Cook will be our next running back, as somebody who started Josh Allen as well as the Bills kicker last week. Very disappointing from what we had with this offense. Um, James Cook still looked pretty good, minus the fumble. He actually had five receptions this past week, which was the second time this season where you saw that type of target volume. Obviously, the reason being the Bills trailed that game the entire time. But this matchup here against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is one in which the Bills currently project out with an implied team total of 26 and a half points. They are five and a half point favorites in Buffalo. So, expectations should be that the Bills have a big bounce back in this game against Tampa.
Now, Jahmyr Gibbs is also coming off a game where he had a miraculous 38 fantasy points. Now, the consistency hasn't necessarily been the same with Jahmyr Gibbs as what you've seen with somebody like De'Von Achane. That's why Gibbs is actually only averaging 20 and a half points per game so far this season. But you still have access to that crazy ceiling where he's had two separate games this year with over 36 fantasy points. The only reason I'm going to have him below some of these other running backs that he'd typically be ahead of is going to be the matchup where you're having to play against the Philadelphia Eagles. What we are typically used to is we are typically used to the Detroit Lions projecting out to be one of the best offenses in the league from a week-to-week perspective. But that's not the case this week. They have an implied team total of 22 points, about a touchdown less than what we've typically seen with these projections. Very similar to what sportsbooks told us last week in that the Eagles-Packers game was probably going to be low-scoring. They're saying the same thing here with this Detroit Lions and Eagles game this week.
Now, moving over to Josh Jacobs. Josh Jacobs is the running back one for my own fantasy football team. Um, I really needed him to come through for us this past week. He did. For that reason, we got to move to 8 and 2. Shout out Josh Jacobs. Absolutely love you, my friend. And with Josh Jacobs, just the touchdowns have been insane. If we look at the rushing touchdowns this season, he's actually already had 11 rushing TDs. While at the same time, he's averaging 4.3 targets per game. He's averaging 29 receiving yards per game, which is actually the highest mark that we've seen through his entire NFL career. So, you have the goal-line role while on the same time you have him being used as a receiver more and more. And this matchup against the Giants is one in which you do actually have Green Bay favored by about a touchdown, and they project to score significantly more points this week than they did a week ago.
Now, Javonte Williams will be our next running back in these ranks. Dallas was on bye last week, so we didn't get to see him. Last time we saw Javonte was against the Arizona Cardinals, where he only scored seven and a half points. But still, if you take a step backwards, this season, Javonte Williams has been an incredible running back, averaging 17.5 points per game, averaging 15 and a half carries per game, which is a career-high, averaging about four targets per game as well, and averaging a career-high about 90 total yards. This matchup against the Raiders is a great one, in which it has an over-under of over 50 points, which is what we're typically used to with these Dallas Cowboys games, but at the same time, you do have Dallas favored.
Now, I know we showed y'all the Underdog projections last week that only had, I want to say, three running backs ranked ahead of Rico Dowdle when it comes to their higher or lower on their yardage totals. And the reason for that is Rico Dowdle's usage has just gone through the roof since they've realized, "Hey, this is the best player on our offense." If we were looking at the games in which Rico Dowdle has actually been the starting running back for the Carolina Panthers, you had him score 32 and a half against Miami, 34 against Dallas, 28 against Green Bay, and 15 and a half against the New Orleans Saints this past week. And every one of those games, he at the very minimum 20 opportunities. Right now on Underdog Fantasy for this week, he is currently sitting at higher or lower 19 and a half rush attempts and higher or lower 109.5 total yards, which for reference, if you look at his higher or lower 109.5 total yards, Jahmyr Gibbs is currently higher or lower 88 and a half total yards. So if you have Dowdle, you obviously start him. But of course, if you disagree with those projections, if you think that you can beat him going higher or lower, you probably can't. But they're over there on Underdog Fantasy. You can find the link in the description as well as the comment section. If you use code FLOCK when you sign up to Underdog Fantasy, you'll get $100 added to your account after you play your first five. And on top of that, you're going to be getting a gimme Drake May pick higher or lower half a total yard for that Thursday night game and free questions that you can ask me in the live streams. And I'm live streaming every single day until the season ends. You can find that link in the description.
Now, Saquon Barkley is the running back two for my own fantasy team. Um, with Barkley this past week, he had 25 opportunities, but with those 25 opportunities, he only turned them into 13.1 fantasy points. Been very disappointing this season so far, where he's only averaging 17.2 points per game in comparison to last year where he was at 22.2. And we've seen the significant fall-off come specifically with the big plays. You're actually seeing him fall from 5.8 yards per carry last season down to 3.9 this year. The volume is actually kind of in line with his career averages. It's just we haven't seen Philly, um, give him the opportunity to get those explosive plays consistently. When he's had those opportunities, he hasn't been able to take advantage. So, I'm really hoping the big plays come back for Saquon Barkley. But, um, right now, I do think that we sadly have to rank him here down as our running back nine. They are favored over the Detroit Lions in this game, though.
Now moving over to Kyren Williams. Um, Kyren Williams has a tough matchup on paper playing against the Seattle Seahawks, who have a really good defense. But I guess the Rams offense is just incredible this season because they have an implied team total of 25 and a half points. And you actually do have the Rams at the same time favored in this game by about two and a half. If you are looking at Kyren Williams, the usage has trended in a really bad direction, where you've actually seen him fall with his snap rate considerably from 2024 to 2025. And at the same time, you've actually seen his carry rate fall. You've seen his carries attempts per game. The only saving grace for Kyren Williams is he's getting used slightly more as a receiver. Um, but yeah, the Rams offense phenomenal. Kyren's getting used as a receiver and he has a goal-line role, so you start him nonetheless.
Um, Austin Ekeler will be our next running back. Austin Ekeler, um, coming off a week in which he had 15 and a half fantasy points against the Denver Broncos. And this matchup against the Dallas Cowboys is incredible. Typically, we are used to seeing the Raiders only project to score like 18, 19 points and project to be one of the worst offenses in the league. That's actually not going to be the case this week, where this week you're looking at a 23 and a half point total for this Raiders offense in a game that has an over-under of over 50, while at the same time Ekeler's expanded his role as a receiver as the season goes on. So Ekeler is a smash running back this week.
Now, TreVeyon Henderson also looks like he is probably set up to smash on Thursday night under the assumption that Rhamondre Stevenson does not play. Now, if Rhamondre does play, I probably will lower TreVeyon down these rankings just a bit. Of course, just make sure you subscribe to the channel. I'll be keeping you updated with that every single night with those practice reports. But as of now, Rhamondre Stevenson did get in limited practice on Tuesday. Should have a lot more information with this on Wednesday. Hopefully, Mike Vrabel comes through and he actually shines some light on how they're planning on using these running backs. This ranking again would be as if Rhamondre is not going to be playing this game. But right now, you have a spread of this game at about 13 and a half points being played in New England. The Patriots are supposed to run away with it, and TreVeyon Henderson looks incredible.
Now, um, typically we are used to seeing the Pittsburgh Steelers project to be a below-average offense in the NFL, but that's not the case this week because this week they get to play against the Cincinnati Bengals. And while I completely understand you wanted to come through and forget about how bad this Bengals defense truly is, let me remind you the last time the Cincinnati Bengals played a game, they allowed Kyle Pitts to go out there and have about 200 total yards. So right now you have an implied team total of 27 and a half points for this Pittsburgh Steelers offense. I mean, you are seeing Jaylen Warren have at the very minimum 15 opportunities every single game over the past month. Getting involved as a receiver, getting involved as a rusher. He's sitting here currently with a career-high 61% snap rate and a career-high 14.1 carries per game. And this is a beautiful matchup. It will probably be the first time this season in which we have seen Jaylen Warren go for over 20 fantasy points.
Now, typically if you are going to look at Derrick Henry in a game in which the Baltimore Ravens were favored by over a touchdown, that is a smash spot. And while I'm kind of hoping he continues to not perform that well because I drafted him in fewer than 2% of my Underdog drafts this year, maybe working out for us. Um, this matchup's really tough against the Cleveland Browns. We can go back and look at what happened last time Baltimore played against Cleveland, and that was in Baltimore. Derrick Henry had 11 carries, 42.3 rushing yards, and zero usage as a receiver. And this is in a game in which the Baltimore Ravens were able to put up a ton of points. This game is a very low over-under, sitting at currently about 39 and a half. So it should be one of the lowest scoring games of the season. And Derrick Henry right now is currently averaging 16.4 carries per game. That's the lowest mark that we've seen since 2017. He's averaging 4.8 yards per carry. That's the lowest mark that we've seen since he was in Tennessee. While at the same time, you've seen the juke rate, according to flockfantasy.com, fall from 21% down to 12%. And we are seeing the receiving usage fall dramatically as well. So, pretty much career lows across the board, plus a tough matchup, but he's Derrick Henry, and they are favored by about seven and a half.
Now, our next running back is going to be Quinshon Judkins. Judkins was a very easy start last week, and he still only scored 10 and a half points. And the reason that I was excited to start Judkins last week and had him higher in these rankings was that Cleveland and the Jets projected to be in a very close game. And with Judkins, the last thing that you want and the number one thing that you are worried about is the fact that he plays for the Cleveland Browns. So, they're going to be trailing a lot of these games, and he's not going to get involved as a receiver. So far this season, Quinshon Judkins is averaging fewer than two receptions a game and fewer than 10 receiving yards a game. So this matchup against Baltimore, where they're dogs by over a touchdown, don't love it.
Um, Chase Brown could actually move up these rankings in a dramatic way when we get updates with Samaje Perine. If it does look like Perine's officially going to miss this week, um, Chase Brown's snap rate is going to go sky-high. He played 96% of the snaps against the Chicago Bears when Sam Perine got injured, and he had 14 targets in that game. This game is being played in Pittsburgh. Um, last time Chase Brown went up against the Pittsburgh Steelers, he came through, he scored about 12 fantasy points, but I know he looked very good in that Thursday night game, and everybody was super excited about him. And again, this is a spot in which there's a pretty high over-under of 49 and a half points. There should be points scored.
Now, I just traded for Breece Hall on my own fantasy team. So, I would love to come out here. I would love to see the 42 receiving yards that Breece Hall had in this game. The fact that he went for 125 total yards and scored about 20 fantasy points in a horrible matchup against the Cleveland Browns and say, "Oh my gosh, Breece is an elite running back rest of season." I would love to do it. But here's the thing. The Jets currently project to score 15 points. Outside of the Jets and the Browns, which I don't know how many times we have to laugh at the Jets and the Browns, I cannot find another team this week. I guess you got the Tennessee Titans. Here are three teams that project to score fewer than 18 points this week: That is the Jets, the Browns, and the Tennessee Titans. You probably start Breece. You probably start Judkins because they're good running backs that are gonna get volume, but the offenses are just horrible. So, you have to cap your overall ceiling outlook with these players.
Um, Travis Etienne this past week, I traded him away. Um, and he came through. He had a rushing touchdown for the third time this season. At the same time, he had 20 opportunities. And what I was worried about, and one of the reasons why I traded away Travis Etienne, was I thought that Tank Bigsby could actually expand his role coming out of the bye. But looks like frankly, I was just straight up wrong. Etienne is here to stay. This matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers should be a close game. Spread is only three points.
Then this ranking of Rachaad White here at 19 is operating under the assumption that JK Dobbins is not going to play. The reports that we are getting right now are that JK Dobbins is potentially going to be going to the IR. And if that were to be the case, Rachaad White is skyrocketing up these ranks and he will turn into a must-start running back. The only hold up this week is this game only has an over-under of 43 and a half points. You're playing against the Kansas City Chiefs, which do have a very tough defense to go up against.
Now, Zamir White comes through and yet again sees over 70% of the snaps in his offense and yet again he has over 20 opportunities and he scores about 18 fantasy points. So, Zamir White against the Jacksonville Jaguars, where you do have the Chargers favored in this game, probably will be a running back you need to put in your starting lineup. But I want to be on the record. It's a bad offensive line. I think he's a bad running back. He hasn't gotten involved as a receiver a ton over the past few weeks. So, while you probably start him, I don't think you should be that excited about it.
Our next running back will be Tyjae Spears. Tyjae Spears has quietly just turned into the full-blown starting running back for the Houston Texans. He had 17 opportunities this past week, 13 the week prior, 15 and 15 the two weeks before that. So, you're averaging about 15 opportunities a game here for Tyjae Spears. Now, the issue is very similar to Zamir White, what I don't think is that good of a running back, and two, at the same time, you have a garbage offensive line, but you have something going for you, and that's you get to play the pathetic Tennessee Titans, where you are on the road, but you are still seven-point favorites, so you should probably be able to run the ball in the second half.
Aaron Jones will be our next running back. If you're going to be looking at Aaron Jones, um, I was kind of surprised to see this this past week, but he really did just take over as the starting running back over Jordan Mason. Now, with that in mind, I still do think Jordan Mason's going to be involved. I think Aaron Jones is more so the receiving back. Jordan Mason more so that first and second down option. You can kind of see this where over the past three weeks for Aaron Jones, he's come through and he's had 23 carries while at the same time he has had 12 targets. So, he's seeing only about double the amount of carries that he is getting targets at the moment. But this matchup against the Chicago Bears is actually giving the Minnesota Vikings an implied team total of 26 points. So, they do project to be one of the best offenses on the week.
Now, Rachaad White will be our next back. If you're going to look at Rachaad White, the usage is still there. Like, he's had 15 opportunities in back-to-back games. The efficiency is just very bad. Like realistically, he is sitting here averaging 3.7 yards per attempt. He's sitting here with 4.6 yards per target, which is actually both career lows. And this is a matchup where you're playing in Buffalo. And ultimately, this is a game in which the Bills are favored by about five and a half points. So, you probably will see Tampa drop back to pass.
Now, DeAndre Swift is a running back that was a must-start play, but you have seen his role take a hit with Kyle Pitts coming on. Now, this past week, DeAndre Swift really did prove that, um, one, he is the lead back, and two, at the same time, he is most likely going to see everything here as the receiver. So, if you were having to choose which running back you wanted between the two of these guys, it is going to be DeAndre Swift. Um, but you're playing at Minnesota. You are three-point dogs, and Kyle Pitts did get the rushing touchdown this past week. So, if Pitts has the goal-line role, it is going to be a little bit difficult for DeAndre Swift to hit the top five running back marks any given week.
Now, David Montgomery will be our next player. Uh, David Montgomery typically higher in these ranks, but um, it's difficult to get there with him this week because you're having to play in Philly. Uh, the Detroit Lions project to be a much worse offense this week than they typically do. And Montgomery very much is going to be a touchdown or bust running back because he's only averaging 1.6 receptions per game, which is actually one of the lowest marks that we've seen in his NFL career.
Now, Tyjae Spears is playing in Green Bay. I'm assuming that you don't have Jackson Dart. While Tyjae Spears looks to be the starting running back here, this past week, he had 16 opportunities. Um, should you be excited about the pseudo starting running back in a garbage offense in a garbage matchup when we don't think the running back's any good? Probably not.
Now, Kareem Hunt also is technically probably a starting running back this week, but the Kansas City Chiefs have worse projections than they usually do. It's a tough matchup going up against the Denver Broncos. Kareem Hunt's not really getting involved as a receiver. He's averaging 1.2 targets per game, which is a career low for him. And yeah, obviously the big play upside just isn't there. It hasn't been for a long time for Hunt.
Um, Kenneth Walker will be our next running back. I don't know why you would ever want to put him in your lineup. Um, it doesn't matter if the Seattle Seahawks put 50 points on the board and they give Kenneth Walker 15 opportunities, he's still not going to crack 10 fantasy points. Like the best week that we've had from Kenneth Walker this season was the one game in which you did see Zach Charbonnet leave. And at the same time, Walker is averaging fewer targets, fewer receptions, and fewer receiving yards than we've seen throughout his entire NFL career. He hasn't had double-digit fantasy points since week four.
Um, Kyle Pitts looks like he is pretty much just the backup/goal-line running back in Chicago. Zach Charbonnet, I mean, his receiving usage has gone down as well. Very similar to Kenneth Walker. Difficult thing is with the Seattle backs, of course, they're split in the backfield 50/50. Tough matchup going up against the Los Angeles Rams. While at the same time, neither running back is giving you that big play upside for the time being.
Um, our G tier is going to be led off with Jordan Mason. Now, technically, Jordan Mason is still out there. I still think he's the first and second down running back for this Minnesota Vikings team. And this matchup against the Chicago Bears is one in which the Minnesota Vikings project to score a ton of points, but it's tough to get there with them.
Tyler Allgeier will be our next player. If we're looking at Allgeier, you're just, um, happy that you have the goal-line role. I'm very excited about the ceiling that he would have if anything were to occur to Bijan. But if you're starting with the healthy Bijan Robinson, you know, you're just praying for a touchdown. But he's had six rushing touchdowns this season so far, which is a career-high.
Next two running backs are going to be Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. Um, it's not their fault they're stuck in the worst offense in the league, or one of the worst offenses in the league. And at the same time, they have a brutal matchup going up against Houston. And very similar to the Seattle backs, they're just eating into each other's upside.
Javonte Williams will be our next running back. If you are looking at Bills, um, this matchup against the Miami Dolphins, decent projections for the Commanders, but Bills Williams is not going to get used at all as a receiver. You actually did see Chris Rodriguez taking the rushing touchdown this past week.
Looking at the Arizona backs with Bam Knight as well as Darrynton Evans. Um, maybe we update these rankings later in the week when we have a better idea of what the split's going to be, what the health of these running backs will be. Um, but they're bad running backs in a committee and a bad offense. I don't want them.
Nick Chubb, bad running back, and it looks like he's lost a job to Woody Marks. And of course, Nick Chubb at his peak, unbelievable running back. And then Blake Corum is seeing more and more work in Los Angeles, but he's still probably just a handcuff option.
So, if I were to look at this, I would mainly just say that if you're going to start anybody, for the love of God, make sure that they are F tier or better. But I really appreciate you. And of course, if you wanted to check out any of those Underdog projections, I'll always leave the link in the description and comment section for you. If you use code FLOCK, you'll get a $100 added to your account after you play your first five. And on top of that, you're going to be getting that gimme Drake May pick higher or lower half total yard for that Monday night game and free questions that you can ask me in the live streams. And we're live streaming every single day until Christmas answering your free questions. But I really appreciate you. Really hope I was able to help you out with this and really hope I get to see you out in the live stream later.