Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin, and we're going to be providing an update to the bull market support band. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, we've been discussing for the last several weeks how this would likely play out, you know, in August and September, and then kind of expectations as we get a little bit later on in the year. One of the things you should remember is that the general playbook for Bitcoin when it ends market cycles, right? That the general playbook is a high kind of like in August or early September, and then a low in September that then sets up the rally into a market cycle top. You can see that's what happened in 2013. In 2017, same thing. A high in August, a low in September, and then a rally into the top. Last cycle, same thing. A high in, it was, I think, early September, and then a low in late September, setting up the rally into the final top. So, this is something we've seen many, many times. Even in 2020, you had a high in August, a low in September that then set up this big rally.
So, over the last few weeks, we talked about how this was the most likely outcome, right? That Bitcoin would set a high in August, it would then form a low in the month of September, and that in the month of September, Bitcoin would likely not be putting in an all-time high. If you look at all the prior moves by Bitcoin, when it sets that August or early September high, historically, it doesn't break it until October or November. In 2021, it broke through in October. Even if you look at 2023 and the July high, you can see that Bitcoin broke through in October. If you look at 2024 and the March high, Bitcoin broke through in November. If you look at 2017 and the August high, it took Bitcoin until October to break through. And if you look at 2013, you can see it took it until November to break through. So, generally speaking, the path for Bitcoin to finish the market cycle is a high put in in August. Sometimes that high can persist into early September, but a lot of times it's August, and then a low to form in September that then sets up the rally into whatever the final market cycle top is going to be in the fourth quarter of the year. That is how historically it has worked.
Now, I tried explaining that, you know, a few months ago, and what's interesting is it seems like it's always the same playbook, right? Always the same playbook. And I'd be curious if other people notice this as well. You know, I will talk about a high and how we'll likely see a pullback to the bull market support band, and then so many people will say it's not going to happen. And then when it gets down here, then they say, "All right, that's the low." It's like, "Well, thank you. But, you know, if you were if you were bullish up here, you know, you don't really have the same um, I feel like you don't really have the same type of capacity to be calling that if if you're also if you're on the wrong side of it a few weeks earlier."
And so then we made a video talking about how we would likely see a bounce, but that we would revisit the bull market support band late September going into early October. Guys, this is not rocket science, right? It really is not. This is what always happens, okay? Even last year, I mean, even last year, Bitcoin did the same exact thing. You know, a rally into the rate cut in mid-September and then a two-week pullback. Look at it, you know, and one of the things is you can see directly the rate cut and then the move by Bitcoin. Like overlay rate cuts here. Notice how last year we had a 50 basis point rate cut, and because of that, you can see that Bitcoin actually had a 26% rally into the rate cut. This time, we only had a 25 basis point rate cut, and then Bitcoin only had about a 10% rally into the rate cut. So, obviously, lower rates would help risk assets, as long as the macroeconomy is not falling apart. And as long as the macroeconomy is not falling apart and they're cutting rates, what's going to happen? The dollar is going to go up. The 10-year yield's going to go up. In fact, both the dollar and the 10-year yield bottomed basically right when they cut rates, just like in 2024. Now, if they were cutting rates and the economy were slowing considerably, if the economy were printing negative GDP and we saw layoffs picking up, then it doesn't matter what the Fed's doing on the short end. The long end would likely go down because then it would be more worried about a slowdown in the economy rather than inflation surging. But remember, if the Fed cuts rates and the economy is not imploding, the 10-year yield only has one direction to go, and that's up. Okay?
So, Bitcoin now is testing that 20-week SMA. Last year, it wicked below it. Does it have to wick below it this year? No. It also started below it last year as well. So, no, it doesn't have to wick below it. But what I would like to say is that the path that Bitcoin has historically taken into the final top, it's so far taking the exact same path. In fact, one of the main comparisons we made was the 2020 move where you basically had a low in Q1, sideways up, sideways down, two-week rally, two-week dump, and then the final rally, right? Same thing's happening, right? You have your low, you go sideways up, down to the bull market support band, two-week rally, two-week dump, right? Same thing, same, same, same exact move that it did in 2020. All right.
Now you can see, I mean, just look at the comparison there. In fact, we could even be as dubious to take a bar pattern from that and overlay it. And what you'll notice is that it really is a very similar move, right? Like it's a very similar move. You see that? You see how it almost matches it perfectly? You have the capitulation in Q1, Q2, the knee-jerk rally back up, sideways, pop up before you hit the 21-week EMA, go sideways into August, drop back down in September, and then spend September trying to hold it as support. Same exact thing we've seen before.
So, look guys, if there's people out there that you know were telling you that this was going to go another way, just know that they were the ones that were saying this time would be different. Even though the problem, the problem I have with a lot of the people that make these other predictions is that all they ever want to do typically is, you know, if the market's moving up, they'll bull post, and then when it goes down, they call lows non-stop, right? But they never actually call high local highs. They'll only ever bull post at the top and then constantly call the low as it goes down. Look, at the end of the day, it's better to be a perma-bull than to be a perma-bear. But at the same time, you have to be aware, right, of what they're doing, right? It's it's don't let it go over your head as to what they're doing because the cycle is very likely going to end soon. And so, the perma-bull view will start to become wrong, especially as we get out into next year, would be my guess.
Now, in the short term, a lot of people want to know, is the top in? Is the top in? I've been pretty steadfast with my view here, and that is, and I'll repeat it again, as long as, and guys, we could even lose the 20-week SMA, and it still doesn't mean the cycle's over because so far, Bitcoin has actually found support at the 50-week moving average this cycle more so than the 20-week. Right? You can see that pretty clearly. The 50-week has come into play. What I'm arguing is that so long as Bitcoin has weekly closes above the 50-week moving average, there is still reason that Bitcoin could go to a new all-time high. It doesn't mean it has to, but as long as it's getting weekly closes above that 50-week SMA. And if you look historically, every cycle ended after a couple of weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, right? That's when the cycles ended in the past. I do not make the rules. I just enforce them. I'm just telling you guys that if you see weekly closes below the 50-week, that's likely it. We haven't seen that yet. We haven't seen that yet.
There's also something interesting about the number 124 for Bitcoin. I couldn't tell you why. I don't know why, but if you look at a lot of these major local tops for Bitcoin, if you look at, if we get a price label here, look at the high in 2013, 1244. Look at the local high in October of 2020, the one, sorry, in August of 2020, the one we were just comparing to. Where do you think it was? 124. Just this is 1244. This is 12,400. So you have 1.24K. Write it out. Right? You have 2013, you have 1.24K. 2020, you have 12.4K. And in 2025, what do you have? 124K. I don't know why. I mean, I don't really know why it respects that level so much, but you can see, right, if you zoom in to 12 to the local high in August, you zoom in right here, 124. So, whenever Bitcoin reaches 1.24 million in a decade or whatever, probably a local top. And I don't know why, but I guess Bitcoin investors have a problem with that number.
Now, if you look at 2013, it was the top. That was it, right? That was it. In 2020, it wasn't it, right? We actually had another move after that. The main difference between 2013 and 2020 is that the 124 number that occurred in Q in 2013 occurred in Q4 when the top normally happens. In 2020, it occurred in August, and then Bitcoin continued to rally up into Q4. So, all I can say, you see the charts, right? I don't it's not like I have like a secret view here on the market. I'm just saying 124 has been a local top in the past. It's not that surprising it was a local top in August. And it's also not surprising that Bitcoin has then been testing the 20-week SMA, the bull market support band for the last few weeks.
So, what I want people to think about right now is how this is, you know, what to kind of expect over the next few weeks and when to pivot if the market says you're wrong, right? Don't be afraid to pivot. A lot of people have egos. They're stubborn. I've been like that before, too. I'm not perfect. I've grown a lot myself. Don't let your ego get in the way. All right. As long as Bitcoin has weekly closes above the 50-week, we're good. We're good. And I've said it every single time we've hit these levels, right? Every single time. And so far, and also we talked about how in the pullbacks, as long as you're holding support at the prior local high, you're good as well. Same thing's happening. You see that? You see how this test of this high here is really similar to what we're having now right here? It's all very familiar, and it's because it's the same stuff that happened in the 2017 cycle, right? It's the same stuff in 2017. You know, the local top that was put in in 2016, we tested it in 2017. So, this is the cycle is very similar to 2016-2017. In fact, if you look at the number of days since Bitcoin had a 50% drop, what does it look like? It looks like the 2016-2017 cycle. Bitcoin within the next six months will likely have a larger drop, but hopefully, there's a little bit more left in the tank before then.
So, what I'm going to look at here for Bitcoin is I'm looking for Bitcoin to hopefully hold support here at the bull market support band. If it doesn't, it still does not mean the cycle's necessarily over. I would only get deterministic about that if we had weekly closes below the 50-week. What's interesting is the 50-week is now at 99K. So, it's getting close to 100K. Next week, it'll be probably at 100K. So, if Bitcoin flushes below the bull market, if it deviates from what 2020 did, because in 2020, it held above it. Let's just hope it holds above it because if it can, it would then set up a probably a better rally in Q4. If it falls below it, we need a contingency plan, right? 100K has to hold. If it doesn't, the cycle's over. That's how this should play out. As long as that holds, the cycle's intact. Below the 50-week on a weekly close, it would be prudent in my mind to be deterministic about the cycle being over because every cycle previously, if you look at ROI from the low, every cycle previously ended, you know, in Q4. You can see we're coming up to prior cycle tops when you measure it in terms of time, as measured from the low, as measured from the peak, and as measured from the halving. No matter how you slice it, it's probably getting close to the end. So, watch for the bull market support band.
What would be the best-case scenario going into October is if Bitcoin can hold the 20-week SMA for the rest of the month. If it can't, still doesn't mean the cycle's over. As long as we hold the 50-week. For Ethereum, I just put out a video yesterday, you know, and for the last few weeks, we talked about how Ethereum would get this pullback after sweeping the prior all-time high. But I don't think Ethereum is done yet. Honestly, I don't. This is playing out how I said it would likely play out, right? It would sweep the all-time high, get a pullback to the 21-week EMA. Now, does it have to drop? No. It could go sideways until it catches up. That's a possibility, and I'm not going to discount that possibility. But the reality is is Ethereum's likely not going to see a durable surge above 5K until it tags the 21-week EMA. And I think it's going to happen in late September, early October. If it doesn't happen in the next two weeks, then you go to plan B. And plan B for that is basically just trend sideways until this catches up and then go up. That's what gold just did. That's what gold just, I mean, if you look at gold, you'll see what I'm talking about, right? Where it had this move up and it just went sideways until the bull market support band caught up, right? Until the bull market support band caught up. And then if you let me flip over here, let's see if I can get it to come up. Um, well, it's not loading right now, but rest assured, the bull market band was would be about right here, and then it basically pushed it higher.
So, this seems like a very familiar pattern to me. You're seeing a little bit more weakness in the altcoins than in Bitcoin. Surprise, surprise. Why is that? Well, it's because Bitcoin dominance is likely forming a low. And as you go into late September and October, guess what? Liquidity flows back to the king. So, all this altcoin liquidity is likely about to flow back to Bitcoin late September, early October. And why is that? Because Bitcoin was already close to the 20-week SMA, but the altcoin market was not, right? I don't know why it's not loading on these other pages, but here it goes. The altcoin market arguably has a little bit further to fall to hit that level or at least go sideways until it catches up. So, things seem like they're playing out, you know, and with things like Ethereum, I remember talking about this pullback, you know, a month ago, and so many people fading it and saying why it wasn't going to happen, and here we are. It just wicked all the way down to 4K, right? I mean, it just went back to 4K. Um, and look, I'll be pragmatic with you guys. Like, there's a scenario where it just hangs around 4K until the 21-week EMA catches up. The reason why I would prefer for that not to happen, um, I still have, you know, I still own Ethereum. The reason I would prefer though for it to just kind of rip the band-aid off and go down is because if it takes, you know, if Ethereum just ends up like going sideways until the bull market support band catches up, the issue with that is that, you know, assuming a constant price, it would take until like November for the bull market support band to catch up, which would not really be the best view because if you're deterministic about the four-year cycle, then we only have, you know, we don't have many more months left. And so, if Ethereum has to spend the next two months consolidating and waiting for the bull market support band to catch up, it would just kind of minimize the move that we would have left. So, I would prefer this and then this. That's what I would prefer. But I'm also open-minded that hey, the market doesn't always do what I want. Sometimes it might just do that and then go.
And by the way, ETH/BTC is also dropping, which is what we've talked about after Ethereum made a new all-time high. ETH/BTC should drop until ETH/USD tags the 21-week MA at the very least. And alts would likely rally against Ethereum. We're now in week five of alts rallying against Ethereum after Ethereum hit an all-time high. This will likely continue until Ethereum tags the 21-week EMA. Those are my views. I'd like to think we've been on the right side of the market for the most part this past, you know, these past couple years or so. Um, I'm going to be, I'm sure I'm going to be wrong about something here relatively soon. But so far so good. Liquidity is likely about to flow back to Bitcoin. It's just testing that bull market support band right now. Hopefully, it holds it. If it doesn't, we still have the 50-week. If that doesn't hold, then it'll be time to face the music. But as long as the 50-week is holding, there's still reason to be optimistic.
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. I'll see you guys next time.