Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to reconnect with you for this Bitcoin journal this Tuesday, November 25, 2025, looking at a cryptomap that is rather green than in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin and altcoins have continued to rise quietly. This is what they have been doing since last Friday. After that, it rises on a small channel that zigzags. So you will still have to be careful. Bitcoin ETFs were quite sellers yesterday, $151 million with Black Rock which has almost sold the majority of its Bitcoin. At the ETF level, rather buyers, $96 million. The market is still in extreme territory, which is very good news for building a good bull run. As I've been telling you for weeks, a good bull run takes time to build. It doesn't appear by magic. So it lasts, it lasts, it can still last several weeks, unfortunately also in levels between $80,000 and $90,000. For now, altcoins are slightly in the red, but they are being bought back since the opening of Wall Street. Here, we had quite bullish figures. I will show you the macro figures that came out today. So for now, altcoins are doing quite well. They are re-entering the Bollinger bands. The next objective would be to break the Kijun here, which is the 26-day moving average of the total altcoin market cap, $653 billion. Here is the top 125 where I have removed Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins to better represent the majority of altcoins. And what we would like to see, you will tell me Foufi, is when to the moon. Well, we need to break these 50 and 200 moving averages, where the death cross here has closed. Oh my god, the death cross has arrived. Well, breaking these moving averages means heading all the way up. For now, we have had a double small touch on the overbought zone, which is rather good news. The bears are continuing to tire a bit. We are still on this type of bullish channel where you need to be careful. The bullish zigzag has a higher probability of breaking downwards, unfortunately. So for now, be cautious, but after the downward break, there will be a validation of a small correction that can establish a small bottom. In any case, the last resort here before being able to boom and take off again. I talked about it this morning in the VIP video, I will also talk about it quickly here. Bitcoin held its 382 Fibonacci retracement at $84,000 well. That's very nice, it's pleasing. It is leaving the oversold zone. The bears are tiring. So all of this is good news, but I don't really like the structure. You know the tune, a bullish channel eventually gets choppy. So there are several solutions. I will give you a quick overview since, anyway, it hasn't changed much from yesterday. I will give you a bit more detail here. So, here you see, we have the big wave since, for example, $126,000. Within the big wave of $126,000, there are several solutions. We are on the big, well, I will put the big running here where we hope it will explode in a "to the moon" mode. That is to say, wave A which started in January until around April, wave B which zigzagged until the top at $126,000, and this is the famous big wave C. We were expecting the big wave C. It had to fall, the big wave C eventually. Well, so we are under the big wave C. So there are several solutions, or here, scenario number 1, we like it. Well, wait, I will remove all of this here. There, to do this more cleanly. Well, I will remove all of this. So, well, what would make us happy is to have the validation. This is scenario number 1. Validation of the running wave. Small A, small B. We finish the small C and boom, explosion. Direct all-time high with quite interesting levels. You can draw your little Fibs, you will get an idea, and your little Fibs, I would even draw the extensions. And on the extensions, if we have found a small bottom here, imagine the bottom is at $80,700, well that sends the running wave with A, B, C to at least the 1618 at $168,000, why not at $221,000. Well, okay, that's scenario number 1. Then, there are also other scenarios. Scenario number 2, for example, is that it is still a scenario that will send you "to the moon" mode, but instead of directly doing A, B, C and exploding, it will do a zigzag, it will do a B, you see, it will do a B that can peak. And to say that we will not have this scenario number 2, well, I will remove this, I will put it back to default so I can show you all of this. Well, it would need to reach the short zone here, and it is in this short zone that you will need to be careful, you see? Because if we are to have a rejection in "12 hell" mode, it will be in this zone. So scenario 2, in short, is an A, a B, a C, it explodes, it goes to the short zone, but boom, it decides to do a big correction afterwards before taking off again, you see. And how to know that we will be blown up in the short zone? Well, in short, for scenario 1, small A, small B, small C of the running wave, if we see an explosion, an impulse, boom, then you think, there will be a high probability that it will be direct validation. If we start to rise slowly, to gain ground slowly like that, then there is a high probability that we will reach the short zone and that unfortunately, it will be a wave B, and a wave B means bam, wave C which can dip, you see, because after wave C can reach $70,000, can reach $60,000, you see, well, and then it will be a correction that will tell us that the explosion is just that afterwards we will have to endure a wave C which will hurt, well, that's scenario number 2, you see. And so, in short, it's a bit of a mess, and then there's the third scenario if you want, the third scenario is that it breaks $74,000, that's number 3, where it breaks like that, it falls, it continues to fall, whoosh whoosh whoosh, it invalidates the running wave and we move on to a wave A, we will wait for wave B here which will be rejected by the short zone which will surely be a bit lower, you see, because A will fall and then wave B, there will be wave C, oh my god, which will reach $50,000, everyone will say it's called the bear market, what do you want, and then it will start again, that's a bit the idea. So scenario 3 is the biggest scenario of the month. It's the one that will hurt the most. You will call it a bear market without a problem because we will have a wave B that will zigzag for months, but wave C, this wave C will send you to the 200 and 300 weekly moving averages at around $50,000. You see, well, that's the idea. So the third scenario, it hurts. It's the one that hurts the most, but for scenario 3 to start, it needs to break $74,000 now on this wave. It needs to break $74,000. Scenario number 2, it's the middle one that hurts a bit because you see, you can, it might start to get messy, you don't break $14,000, you can start now or later to do a B, but you will have a C, but the C won't go down too much, you see, but it will dip, but less than scenario 3. And then you have scenario 1, which is what we would like, it's the scenario of the running wave, small A, small B, small C, and boom, explosion. The question we are asking ourselves is, is wave C of the running wave finished or not? Are we going to have another descent or not? Well, and why am I talking about all of this? Because this is where we zoom in a bit on the structure to know if we will still have more than a descent or not. This is where we zoom, zoom, zoom, zoom, zoom. You see, B, B, B, that's it. So if we start to break on one minute, well no, it would be good if I put it on one hour. So if we start to break the highs here, we will start to have more and more probability, you see? Because look, if I zoom out like this, if you start to break all the highs, that is to say, to break, for example, this high, this high, this high, well, you will say "Okay, I have two solutions. Either it's done, I'm going for the validation of the running wave and it's off directly to the moon, okay? Or if I start to break the highs on a zigzag, well, we might be heading for scenario number 2, which then gets rejected by the short zone, does one last dip and takes off." There. But to start saying that wave A is finished, well, we are moving on to either running wave validation or a big B, you see? Well, you have to start breaking the highs. There, that's the idea. So that's why when I show you the structures here, I start with the smallest structure, you see, which is this one. This one, you need to break this high. And in short, this cute little structure tells us what? It tells us "Well, as long as you don't break $93,000, you will come back below $80,000." You see? That's what our little beloved Bitcoin is telling us right now, which is the very first structure, you see, the little neat one. Well, that's the idea. So for now, that's what we have, also on a bullish channel, it can zigzag for a long time. As long as it doesn't break $93,000, you see? And well, boom, and we will have looked for it again below $80,638. Now, if Bitcoin decides to break $93,000, ah, that will smell good. We move to the higher structure. There, we move to this wave. Pom, you see? So if it starts to break here, we will say, well, we are making wave B of this big A here, you see. And so what are the objectives? Well, since you move to the next structure above, you draw your Fibonacci. So the Fibonacci here are ugly because I put the basic thing here and I will put it in white. There, it will be a bit better. And even, I like to do here, hop, and hop. There. So they don't show up too much, these little Fibs. Uh, please. No, I just want a little Fib, a little Ah no, it's the trend line. I would rather have the little Fibs here and I would like the little dots here. There, it's prettier. And so here, it's the same, we will say "Okay, if Bitcoin breaks $93,000, we are going for the wave above, bigger, and the short re-entry zone is here for this wave." There, that's the idea. And so, we will say "Cool, now that we have broken $93,000, we are looking at the short zone." So afterwards, well, it can zigzag in the short zone and do a small A, a small B, boom, a small C, same thing to then take off again, and that would mean that the main wave is not necessarily finished yet. There. Now, if you start to break even higher, well, then you will say "Okay. So, we are correcting the big wave here, you see. And so you will say, well, this time it's really wave B that has started for the biggest zone of things." There. So it's always small dolls that lead to the big doll when you have made the small doll, you see, Russian dolls, that's a bit the idea. Well, so I deliberately took the time to dwell on this because, anyway, you will see the analysis, I will go quickly because it's more or less the same as yesterday. So for now, it's the same for everyone, we are here. There, we are here and we are waiting. As long as Bitcoin doesn't break $93,000, boom, it will dip below $86,000. If we start to break $93,000, it doesn't mean we won't go below $80,000, but it smells good to start making the next big wave. You see, that's a bit the idea. It's all a matter of probability. There's never anything that's certain, that's for sure, it's immediate. No, no, that doesn't exist. It's certain, it's good, you see, that doesn't exist. And the "don't worry" either, that doesn't exist. So, well, and especially we note that there is a lot of liquidity to the south, a lot of longs are open. So Bitcoin can go to $80,000 if it wants to, you see, and so, well, it would dip a bit, but for now, you see that even if it starts to break $93,000, it doesn't mean it can't go below $93,000. Now, regarding Ethereum, it's the same as Bitcoin, anyway, everyone has more or less the same structure. Since Friday, as Bitcoin, everything is rising slightly, it's quite nice. Ethereum has recovered its Tenkan and is holding it today. You see, it's quite good at $2525. So Ethereum continues to push, heading towards its next resistance here, which is the 26-day moving average here at $3271, its objective. You see here, pam, and then we have a small air pocket, that is to say, if it manages to break this, around the level of $3240, well, boom, it can be sucked towards the 200-day moving average at $3518. Well, that's if everything goes well, knowing that Ethereum fell with the RSI zigzag zigzag zigzag, eventually when it breaks the upward momentum here, it can take off, you know? Be careful, it has touched the oversold zone enough. Don't say "Oh my god, it's already taking off, how is that possible?" No, no, it has already taken its time. And so for the structure, it's the same, you see that Bitcoin, we are on a small bullish channel which has a higher probability of breaking. If it starts to reach all these highs, well, that will increase the probabilities of moving to the next big wave. That doesn't mean we won't come back below $2645. It would mean that there are fewer and fewer probabilities of making a lower low. But we could still do it because there is always the possibility of the big wave to reach the big short zone, to be rejected, to make a final lower low to end on a big correction. There, that's the idea. So the fact of saying we won't look for this lower low, no, we can't say that, clearly, because it would need to break the all-time high to say it won't go lower. You see, in the meantime, it can go there. But you see that when it starts to break the highs, the highs, the highs, well, it will smell really good to move to the next structure each time, and the next structure, it reduces the probabilities of going down each time. And in other words, even, you see, if you take Ethereum, it's the same as for Bitcoin with the big wave, with its big structure here. I'm taking the 4-hour structure, you see. And so, it tells us the same thing, when is this wave finished? Well, if it starts to break the highs, you will say, well, the big downward wave is starting to be finished, you see? And that's what we would like. The question we are asking ourselves is, when will this wave finish? Will it still fall? Is it still within this wave, or will it start to break the highs while rising like this? And then you will say, it's good, this wave A is finished, this impulsive wave, and we are starting the next wave. You see, it doesn't mean you won't come back later to do a final wave for a big correction, for example, to push, but it reduces these probabilities more and more, you see. That's rather how you should see it. So for now, in the very short term, well, like Bitcoin, like yesterday, and like the day before yesterday, I'm sorry, it hasn't changed. As long as we are in this bullish channel that zigzags, well, there are high probabilities of quickly making a small dip, you see. But it might be the last wave to finish the big bearish wave that we started 4 weeks ago. That would be good. Knowing that the bears are starting to tire a lot. We have touched the oversold zone enough. That's good. So, there are also futures that tell us "Well, one last small wave, well, it wouldn't be too much because many longs are open. If Ethereum goes to $2565, it will eat 3 billion. 3 billion is exactly what it has upwards to $3002, you see. Solana is the same. So everyone is the same, you see. Well, I won't repeat it for you now. You understood, as long as it's in this bullish channel here, well, Solana will strongly increase its probabilities to go and make a small dip below $121. If it starts to aim above $144, we will say "Ah, maybe the big bearish wave that lasted 4-5 weeks is finished, we are moving on to the next wave which is rather a bullish wave, you see? That's the idea. So as long as it doesn't break $144 here, boom! All the way to $121, we can go there. Especially since Solana, like its peers, has a lot of liquidity to seek. For example, at $119, it has $800 million, while to the north, there are only $600 million up to $150, with many longs open. I will explain to you why many longs are open, there is logic. It's very nice that Solana has recovered its Tenkan, the first resistance of the system here at $133. Now, if everything goes well, direction the Kijun at $156. Solana has also thoroughly tested the oversold zone. The bulls are regaining momentum. However, the momentum needs to be strong, you see. If it's all weak like this, it's not worth it, you see. Well, so we will see. And to finish, XRP, same thing. XRP can very well come back to test below its low which is around $1.82, you see. However, XRP is starting to hit new highs. So, it hit the high at $2.33 here. It would need to pass this small wick at $2.30 now. And if it breaks the last wick here at $2.58, it's even better for moving to the next bullish wave, you see. But for now, be careful because as long as it doesn't pass here around $230, well, there is still this famous small bullish channel here which could fall, but it won't fall violently, you see. It won't fall to $1, you see. That's the idea because it has pushed quite a bit here. XRP has recovered its Tenkan, bravo at $2.06. Its Kijun is rejecting it a bit this evening. It would be good if it closes above $2.20 to recover this Kijun as support. That would be good news to then give it a little kick to go and reach the 50-day moving average at $2.38. You see, it has also reached its oversold zone. The bears are tiring, the bulls are returning. However, the bulls need to return with momentum. But to the south, be careful. You see, there is still a lot to seek. Much more to the south than to the north. In the $300 million if XRP goes to $1.3, while to the north if it goes to $2.47, there are about $150 million. So for now, everything is going well in the direction of the structure and futures. The structure says a small dip downwards, a last small dip. Here, really, it can largely happen, in any case, and this is where the probabilities are highest, and futures now that, well, we see that the liquidity is full at the bottom. Well, we wouldn't be surprised to see a small dip. Well, now, regarding the stock market. So, it's simple, look at the probabilities of interest rate cuts now for December 10th by the central bank, they have risen to 82.7%. That's big, huh? So, it's certain that Wall Street is rather happy because, well, there are high probabilities of an interest rate cut. So Nvidia is taking a big hit right now, but then we see that for now, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. S&P is in the green, Nasdaq is a bit in the red, as is the Euro Stoxx. Well, for now, it's rather good news to see this. How is it that the probabilities of interest rate cuts have risen? You know very well that the Fed has two mandates. To deal with inflation, to deal with employment. And for months, the President of the US central bank has been telling us that for now, employment is more concerning than inflation. That is to say, if we have to cut rates, it's rather to support employment, but we know that it fuels inflation. So, if these probabilities have exploded upwards, it means that employment is not doing well and inflation is not doing well. Well, that's what today's figures have shown us, quite simply. You see, there is no smoke without fire. So we see that employment in the private sector has shown very bad figures. You see, this is really ugly. On the other hand, inflation of the PPI type, the producer price index, okay? What happens in the factories. So here we have the PPI, you see, on a rolling year. The core is without volatile elements such as energy and food. And then, you have the general PPI. Well, the general PPI has not moved. We are at 2.7% like the previous month, like what the market expected. And we also have the core PPI, well, which has even slightly decreased to 2.6%, lower than before and lower than what the market expected. So it's rather good news to see this, that the core is decreasing and the general is stagnating. So, in short, we see that employment is not going well and that inflation of the PPI type is rather satisfactory, you see. And so, this increases the probabilities for the central bank to cut rates to support employment. You support companies by facilitating credit so that they can hire and, well, relaunch employment a bit. That's the idea. So this is rather bullish for the market to see that there is a higher probability of interest rate cuts, quite simply. So you see that the S&P 500 here, well, it's rather in the green, huh? It's been green for 3 days, since last Friday, the S&P 500 has been green. The Nasdaq is slightly green too. The Dow Jones, the Euro Stoxx 600, everyone is happy. Well, so for now, it's rather not too bad. Gold is doing nothing today. The barrel is going down, which is more good news. Regarding crypto stocks, well, it's still all down, huh? It's not crazy. And another indicator that shows you that yes, rate cuts are likely to happen, is that we see a rush on US Treasury bonds, on the 10-year, but also on the 20-year, the 30-year. Okay? And we have yields falling, and that's good news. So if they are buying Treasury bonds, it's because they expect interest rate cuts because new bonds issued will be issued with lower yields. And the fact that they are rushing into US Treasury bonds, European ones too, it's the same, they are also buying European ones. Uh, it lowers yields, and if yields fall too much or fall too much, well, investors will be less inclined to go into the bond market because the yields are too low, they are too low, you don't want to, you see. And so they will look for higher yields elsewhere. Where will they look for higher yields? Well, on risky assets, stocks, or even cryptos. So it's good news to see Treasury bonds rising and yields collapsing. This is going in the right direction. And also, one that is not happy, well, it's the dollar because with the bad private employment figures, tomorrow I will talk about it tomorrow morning in the news video, anyway, for the next figures that will be released to the public. And so the dollar, well, today it's not very happy because the private sector employment figures are bad, and also the figures for inflation of the PPI type are rather good. So, the dollar, it senses that it might get an interest rate cut. Well, it's normal, anyway, when you have more than 80% probability of an interest rate cut. Okay? And this is rather towards currencies that do not plan to cut rates or central banks that do not plan to cut rates. There you go, friends, this little update. Well, it hasn't changed from yesterday, but there are some interesting additional elements. Thank you for listening. Sending kisses, and we'll say goodbye. Bye bye.