Transcription
The price of gold and the price of Bitcoin, as you well know, are very sensitive to the flow of liquidity, and over the past few weeks, we have seen both fall simultaneously. If this has occurred, it is because global liquidity has contracted. If we look at what the Federal Reserve system is doing, we must say that it has not changed its monetary policy. Kevin Wars continues to inject one billion dollars a week, the same as Powell was doing; he has not raised interest rates. And if we look at what the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, Besen, is doing, we observe that while one week he withdraws liquidity from the system, the next week he returns it. And for that reason, the level of bank reserves in the North American financial system remains comfortably above 3 trillion. Therefore, there are no problems in the US money markets, and we can say that the Federal Reserve system continues with an expansionary monetary policy. Well, if the Federal Reserve system is not restricting liquidity, who is doing it? Well, you know very well, the Central Bank of China. The question we are going to ask ourselves today is the following. Does this make sense for the OPLA team? This makes no sense, apparently no economic sense, because if a central bank slows down the pace of liquidity growth or, worse, withdraws liquidity from the system, it automatically causes that country's economy to slow down. If the Central Bank of China has slammed the brakes on liquidity injections at a time when its economy is growing at low rates and private consumption is weak, then with that policy it is exacerbating the problem. Therefore, from an economic point of view, it doesn't make much sense, but you must take into account that if they restrict liquidity, the economy slows down, oil consumption, what happens? It decreases. And we have found that since the beginning of the war in Iran, China has carried out a boycott of oil purchases. If it has done this, it is so that the price of oil does not rise, at the cost of slowing down its growth rate. This is the reason why the conclusion we reach is that there is a tacit agreement between Chillin Pin and Donald Trump, and consequently, when the war concludes, when a definitive peace agreement is reached, and China resumes accelerating its economy and consuming oil again, the Central Bank of China, when an agreement is reached, will inject liquidity into the system. This is the reason why we believe that both the price of gold and the price of Bitcoin are determined by this restrictive conduct of Chinese monetary policy. You know, because we have told you on numerous occasions, gold is a strategic asset for the OPLA team for a very simple reason, and you know it well, due to monetary degradation. Taking into account the liquidity restriction carried out by the Central Bank of China, we believe that the fall experienced by gold or the fall experienced by Bitcoin, in our opinion or our system, or our money, represents a buying opportunity. Furthermore, we have seen that there has been a brutal deleveraging in the Sanayi stock market, okay? And we have also seen this deleveraging in the United States. We therefore reach the conclusion that the market has expelled retail investors, and when retail investors are expelled, a bottom has very likely been formed. But when we look at the Sanayi stock market, what we have seen is that institutions have bought the gold that individuals have sold. Now, you will say, "Divine words, what does the chart say?" If you agree, let's start by analyzing the daily chart of the price of gold, expressed in yuan, okay? And specifically, I would like you to focus on the chart on that low of October 28, 2025. Do you see that on that day it marked a low at 27,600? And if you now move to the right of the chart, you will observe that during the month of June, that level has been broken. Therefore, if that level is now recovered, we would have a false breakout to the downside, and furthermore, all those who had bought since October 28, 2025, all those who had bought during the last 8 months, would have been kicked out of the market. We have started with this chart of the dollar, sorry, of gold expressed in yuan, because the price of gold is fundamentally determined by the monetary policy of the Chinese Central Bank. If you agree, let's take a look at the chart of gold, the price of gold expressed in dollars. As you can see in this chart, you will observe that it did not break the lows of October 28, 2025, in that area of 3887. It did not break them; it has approached them, but at least it has broken the lows of November 18, 2025, that area of 4000. Therefore, the OPLA team, based on all of the above, reaches the conclusion that we are facing a temporary pullback, a pullback caused by the liquidity restriction carried out by the Central Bank of China, but that if the situation in the Gulf, in the Strait of Hormuz, normalizes now, then very likely the Central Bank of China will inject liquidity into the system again. Okay? Now, if you agree, let's look at a 3-hour chart to see what the relevant levels are. If you look at this chart which shows the price of gold expressed in yuan, you see that there is a relevant resistance in the area of 29,638. Okay? You see that this level has acted as support in December 2025 and in March 2026, and has acted as resistance in June 2026. Therefore, if that level is surpassed, we would have a very clear signal that it would very likely unfold at least a new upward leg. Now, if we go down a little further and look at that resistance line that we have drawn around 27,855 on a 5-minute chart, you see that 27,855 appears to be a kind of neckline of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. Therefore, if the price of gold expressed in yuan were now capable of surpassing that neckline, it would very likely head towards that resistance that we mentioned in the 4-hour chart, which is around 29,638. Well, shall we do the same reasoning with the price of gold expressed in dollars? As you can see, it has drawn a false breakout to the downside around the lows of June 10 in the area of 4024. Therefore, we at Opla believe that it is very likely that it will attempt to unfold a new upward band and take it to that resistance in the area of 4370. Now, this is a 3-hour chart. What do I see? What do we see on a 5-minute chart? Well, the same as we have said previously regarding gold expressed in yuan. Do you see that there is a neckline around 4100? Well, we anticipate that in the very short term, if it were capable of surpassing 4100, it would very likely head towards the next resistance. That resistance, which we have marked on the 3-hour chart around 4370. If all this were to happen and it were capable of surpassing 4370, we would consider that it is most likely to continue rising. We have been explaining this to you. We have told you that the price of the yuan with respect to the dollar, its upward trend against the dollar, clearly revealed that the Central Bank of China was carrying out a restrictive monetary policy, it was withdrawing liquidity from the system. Last week's video and the one from the week before, we told you that we would focus on the price of the yuan against the dollar to try to determine the moment when the Central Bank of China changes its monetary policy, that is, when it stops withdrawing liquidity from the system and starts injecting liquidity. Look at what has happened this week. If you look at the chart, you will observe that we marked a resistance in the area of 0.15 and told you that it would most likely head towards the area of 0.15. But look, before reaching the area of 0.15, it stopped, turned downwards, and broke that support that we drew on the chart last week, the one in the area of 0.1474. Well, and now what do we expect in the short term? Well, what we expect in the short term is that the price of the yuan against the dollar will now fall and head towards that support that we have drawn in the area between 0.1455 and 0.145. But what is most important? What is most important is that the fall of the yuan against the dollar may be informing us that the Central Bank of China is injecting liquidity into the system. And what does this mean, Román Paladino? It makes it more probable that the price of gold will rise, that the price of Bitcoin will rise and rebound, and that the SP500 will also rise because there has been a change in the monetary policy that the Central Bank of China is carrying out, and it is increasing the liquidity it injects into the global financial system. Well, since we are on the subject of liquidity, let's take a look at the flow of liquidity in the United States. First of all, I would like you to focus on this chart. It is the chart that represents the evolution of the MOVE index, the bond volatility index. Do you see in the chart that it is clearly below the 100 area? Do you see that it is very close to the minimum area? Therefore, we must consider that this is good news that clearly reveals that liquidity in the United States, the flow of liquidity, we do not observe any contraction, and that based on this index, institutions would be willing to buy US bonds. Well, speaking of US bonds, you will have read a lot of articles in which, after Kevin Wsh's appearance, everyone said that US bond yields were going to rise, and last week we told you that no, that we did not see it that way because inflation expectations had fallen sharply. We will look at inflation expectations later. Shall we look at the chart that shows the behavior of the yield on the 10-year US bond? Well, as you can see, it has reached resistance in the 4.66 area and has turned around. It has not been able to surpass it. And you see that the fall has been significant. And in this 3-hour chart, you see that we have marked a downside target towards the 4.316% area. So, if you combine the performance of US bond yields with the MOVE index, we must consider that liquidity is expanding. Liquidity is expanding. One of the reasons why liquidity has slowed down in recent weeks has been the appreciation of the dollar. Shall we take a look at the behavior of the US Dollar Index, which has the mnemonic DXY? Notice that last week we told you that there was resistance in the 102 area. Look at what has happened. It reached the area of approximately 102, which is a very important resistance, and it could not surpass it. It turned downwards after reaching the area of 101.80 and then broke 101.35. Therefore, we at Opla believe that it is most likely that the dollar index will fall in the short term as long as it remains below that resistance that we have marked on the chart around 101.75. And we will consider as the most probable scenario that as long as it remains below 101.75, it will head towards the old resistance that was surpassed, the area of 107-106. Okay? Notice, MOVE index, US bond yield, and dollar index, all pointing in the same direction. Expansion of liquidity and the Central Bank of China, expansion of liquidity. We cannot be bearish on the stock markets, and we believe that it is most likely that there will be at least a rebound in the price of gold and a rebound in the price of Bitcoin. To complete the liquidity in the United States, where do we need to go? Indeed, to the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve system. As you can see, on the asset side of the Federal Reserve system's balance sheet, it has increased in the week from June 17 to June 24 by practically 700 million. It is injecting liquidity. 5700 times 4 is practically 24 billion per month. Okay? Injecting liquidity. Let's see what Bes has done, and as you can see on the liability side of the balance sheet, in that first item that we have marked, we have indicated with a green stripe, you see that the balance of the account that the US Treasury has at the FT in the week from June 17 to June 24 has been reduced by 38 billion. This means liquidity in the system. 38 from one and 6 from the other, 44 billion. But the most spectacular is the evolution of bank reserves, the last item on the Fed's balance sheet liabilities. Do you see how it has increased by no less than 90 billion? There is excess liquidity. It is evident. And if the Central Bank of China starts injecting liquidity, then the idea we are considering is confirmed. Well, we have analyzed the money market, we have seen global liquidity. What are we missing? The canary in the coal mine, indeed, the performance of the credit markets. Shall we look at the evolution of the ETF with the mnemonic HYG, which reflects the performance of this ETF that invests in low-quality credit bonds? And as you can see, it continues in an upward trend and within the upward trend it is developing a sideways movement above the support of the 79.35 area. Therefore, there are no problems in the credit markets, there are no problems in the money markets, and they are injecting liquidity into the system. How can we be bearish? Well, we have studied the monetary aspect, the liquidity aspect. Let's take a look at how the US economy is doing. Last week, as you know, a measure of inflation was published, which is based on the personal consumption expenditures basket index. How was the data? Bad. Yes, okay. It was bad. But there were very good details, and I will show them to you. First of all, we have found that the pace of wage growth has slowed down. The pace of wage growth is equivalent to or consistent with 2.5% inflation. Well, that's good. It's good, but the best is what comes next. Look at this chart that shows the evolution of average inflation expectations for the next 5 years. And what do you see? They have collapsed. Do you see that a few weeks ago they were in the 2.70 area and have fallen to the 2.21 area? With which it is clear that this is the reason why the bond market has fallen, because inflation expectations are falling significantly. Last week we told you that the OPLA team, despite everyone saying that the risk of 10-year interest rates rising, we told you that no, that we did not see it that way because inflation expectations had fallen sharply. Well, if you see that average inflation expectations are falling, US bond yields are falling, and liquidity in the system is increasing, then obviously we cannot be bearish. We have seen inflation. Shall we take a look at the growth rate of the US economy? Look, as you can see in the latest estimate, that of last Friday, made by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, you see that the US economy, according to the estimate made by the Federal Reserve system itself, is 2.71%. It is accelerating. And now I want you to reason with me as follows. If the real growth rate of the US economy is 2.7% and inflation is 3.5%, that gives me a nominal growth of 6.2%. If we now compare it with the yield on the 10-year US bond, which is around 4.5%, do you see that there is a difference of 1.7 percentage points? This, in my opinion, is monetary stimulus. The Federal Reserve system's monetary policy is expansionary because the bond interest rate is below the nominal GDP growth. And therefore, the question we have to ask ourselves is, well, if this continues, at what growth rate can the US economy reach in 2027? At 4%, okay? At 4%. If the US economy were to grow at 4% in 2027, at what rate would corporate profits grow? Well, at a very high rate. And the SP500 could trade well above 8000. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Let's talk, let's see what the OPLA team's target for the SP500 price is for the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. You know perfectly well that we have been saying since the end of last year that it was in the area between 7700, even 7800, up to 8000. On what do we base the current reasoning? Now we have more data. Look how curious. We are finding that the consensus among the major houses, among the main analysis houses, is that if we take the SP500 as a basket and look at the earnings per share for this SP500 basket, they consider that the earnings can be $400. Well, if I have $400 and I consider that the P/E ratio of the SP500, based on the US bond yield of 4.55%, the P/E ratio of the SP500 should be between 19 and 20. Well, if I take $400 and multiply it by 20 or multiply it by 19, I get a target for the SP500 to rise between 8000 and the 7700 area. For when? For the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. With which, you see that as time passes, this objective, by reasoning it, seems very probable. You may tell me, "Well, but there has been a very strong fall in the semiconductor sector." Yes, yes, a corrective phase, not the market top. The bubble has not burst. Especially when I am telling you that we are considering that the US economy will accelerate its growth rate and could reach a growth rate of 4% in 2027. Okay? That said, if you agree, let's go to the SP500 chart and look at what is happening. The medium and long-term trend of the SP500 is upward. Despite the fall in the semiconductor index, since the beginning of June, it has been undergoing a corrective phase. The corrective phase has not yet concluded. Also, I would like you to take into account the current investor sentiment. According to the survey by the American Association of Individual Investors, you see that the percentage of bulls has significantly increased and the percentage of bears has fallen. Well, we now have the data on the table. What does the chart tell us? Well, as you can see in this chart, and these are the levels that my colleagues published throughout last week in the news, do you see that there is a resistance zone between 7453 and 7414? Well, in the opinion of the OPLA team and based on everything we have been saying during the past week, as long as it remains below 7453-7414, we will consider as the most probable scenario that it will head towards that support zone that we have drawn on the chart, that my colleagues have drawn on the chart, and in the area around 760-7229. Well, have you seen that investor sentiment is now bullish when the SP500 is in a corrective phase? Also, you must take into account that on June 30, the JP Morgan call with an exercise price of approximately 7,000 expires. Therefore, in the short term and before the end of June, we can say that there are latent short-term bearish pressures within a medium to long-term bullish trend. You know that every weekend when I prepare the video, I usually put some arrows explaining the behavior I expect the SP500 to have during the week. Well, as you can see in the chart, you will see that I expect a fall to the 7260-7229 area. The reason is simple, JP Morgan calls, and also the bullish investor sentiment. That it reaches the 7226 area, that retail investors are expelled there, that they are scared a little, and that then, after they have been expelled, they will unfold a new upward leg with a target. Well, there you have it. I have marked an upward target around 7548. Then, I expect a pullback to the 7543 area to test it, and then a new upward wave with a target in the area around 7600. The time has come. Yes, yes, the time has come. You know that since the beginning of the year we have told you that we expected a deep corrective phase, a very strong fall, but that it would make us feel as if we were in a bear market, but that no, that it would be a buying opportunity. We continue to believe that if that fall finally occurs, it would be a buying opportunity in accordance with everything we have told you so far. Well, we have told you that although we are not fortune tellers, we expected the fall from a seasonal point of view for the period between May and October, okay? SpaceX had already been placed, okay? they had already attended to all that liquidity, and after the SpaceX placement, we would see falls when the former SpaceX shareholders were allowed to sell when the lock-up period ended. For this reason, we expected August and September to have falls. Well, there has been new news. Yes, yes, there has been new news. Look at what the New York Times says. As you can see here, the New York Times says that Open is postponing or will postpone its IPO that was planned for October. Why postpone it? Well, obviously because it is clear that it is postponed because Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, who are handling the placement, have told it to postpone it until when? Until the end of the year, because they say that autumn might not be a favorable month to carry out the issuance. They are not saying it. We at Nopa have interpreted this news as that fall that we expected for May and October will probably be delayed a little to September-October, okay? But you see that both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, who are the liquidity creators, the ones who provide counterparty, are saying that for the beginning of the year, it will very likely be possible. If we also take into account that there are mid-term elections in November, then perhaps the strong fall will occur in October, and in view of the mid-term elections, it will rise. Okay? This is what we currently consider the most probable scenario, that that sharp fall is delayed. Because Goldman itself says that October will not be a propitious month and postpones the placement until January. For Román Paladino, this means that they expect a strong stock market for the beginning of 2027. To conclude, let's move on to Bitcoin. Well, first of all, I would like you to take into account the following fact, specifically the lows in the 59,000 area of last June 5. In the news published by my colleagues throughout the week, they have told us that Bitcoin could be drawing a false breakout to the downside in the 59,000 area. I would like you to look at the chart again. As you can see, you will observe that on June 24, June 25, and June 26, the price even fell below 59,000. But in all cases, that 59,000 level has been respected, meaning we have had three sweeps, okay? With which the Bitcoin market must be super clean. Everyone must have been expelled at a time when the Central Bank of China has resumed its liquidity injections. This is the reason why we at OPLA consider that a rebound is very likely. Now, what will we focus on? Well, as you can see in this chart, you will see that we have marked a resistance in the 60,800 area. Do you see that it is a one-hour chart? Well, as long as it is capable of surpassing 60,800, we will consider as the most probable scenario that it will head to 63,200. 63,200-250 is a very important resistance. Its surpassing would have great significance because it would then open the way to the 64,000-65,000 area. Let's be prudent. In principle, it is a rebound, okay? within a sideways movement forming a base, which we have been saying for a long time. Now, the fact that it has been able to stay above 59,000, in our opinion, is very promising. Goodbye, see you later. What's up? Good day.