Transcription
We are in the process of closing the gap on the CME, on BTC. We also have big news this week. I remind you that we have the FOMC. I remind you that we also potentially have an agreement between the United States and China. Today, we will look a little at what happened with the ETFs yesterday and what zones were reached because there were key levels that were triggered on BTC yesterday. We will also give a brief update on Ethereum. Just before we start, I remind you that our algo service is still available, 31 TP for the LIM algorithms last week and the SPT algorithms which made +7.97 HR, meaning they generated almost 8 times more gains than the risk taken on each trade. Obviously, past performance does not reflect future performance. This is just a transparent follow-up of our results which are available in the Discord every week. To access it, it's free, it's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content. It brings you back to the page I am showing you. You just need to register on Bitgate via our partner link by clicking on the first link just here. There is a small verification to pass, quite simply. Sometimes it is done automatically, sometimes you have to click, you just have to wait a little and once that is done, it brings you back to this page. You just need to register and then you will have access to the algos, but also to the mentorship. It's my complete training, all that for free. And to the VIP, Alcoin crypto which is in the Discord. This is where I will share the best opportunities on the Alts. Make sure to go through this link, otherwise it won't work and you will never be able to access it if you haven't gone through our link.
So, to come back to BTC, we can see on the CME precisely that we are in the process of closing the gap, probably, or that we will come to close this gap eventually. What is called the new week open gap, so the gap at the opening of the week. We have a gap that is quite significant. We had the same on the US indices. Now, the US indices are quite far from closing it for the moment, but we had exactly the same gap because Bitcoin accelerated upwards over the weekend, which resulted in a gap on the CME futures that we are slowly filling, while waiting for major events like an agreement between the United States and China, which should fall eventually this week because I remind you that the deadline for the agreement is November 1st. So, we are in the final days where an agreement should arrive. And also, we have the FOMC tomorrow. So, Jerome Powell will probably lower interest rates. But the most important thing is not the rate cut, it's the speech. Will we talk about the end of QT? We are seeing quite a few news items starting to come out, which are quite worrying. I will go on Twitter to show you this. But we have Amazon which is going to lay off, well, which is going to lay off yes, 300 jobs, very soon. 300 workers, that's huge. And in fact, we are witnessing, I made a video about it, I talked about the replacement of AI in the world of work. So here, we have Amazon which is going to lay off more than 30,000 employees, which is huge. I saw another news this morning that Param is going to lay off 1000 people as well. Why? Because in fact, they are replacing humans with AI. And so, if large companies start replacing humans on a massive scale with AI, well, simply the unemployment rate will explode. If the unemployment rate explodes, it will slow down the economy. And in fact, we are in the process, and I am convinced that it will happen, although it will take time, we are entering a world where there will unfortunately be many more unemployed people who will be replaced by AI, which will slow down the economy and which will allow us to enter a world where money will be printed to pay people because they have much less work, quite simply. And so, there will be more unemployment, we will print more money to pay these people. Very probably, many are talking about universal basic income or other things. Anyway, but we cannot leave these people without work, obviously. Well, we can leave them without work but we have to pay them anyway so they can survive and participate in the economy. So, we will print money and give it to them so they can consume and so on. And so, we will enter this phase. And in fact, there are, well, people at Google who did a study that is very interesting, which said that for them, this big shift from workers to AI will arrive massively in the next two years, and we would really have the big, big boom in 2027. And so, the idea is that the narrative for the next QE would be AI, quite simply. People unfortunately lose their jobs, so they are replaced by artificial intelligence, and therefore the economy simply slows down because there are people who are unemployed, and then money is printed to compensate for this decrease, this economic slowdown. And that's what we saw during Covid, precisely, where during Covid, a lot of people were put out of work, and so a lot of money was printed and given, obviously, to the unemployed so they could live. And that's how, in essence, if you want, we artificially stimulated growth. But it's a world we could go to in the coming years, and it's perhaps the element that will trigger our next QE. A reset with many people finding themselves unemployed, so huge increases in unemployment, so a big economic slowdown, and to compensate for this slowdown, print a lot of money and thus restart the money printing. And for me, we seem to be heading towards this world. So, we have our next QE narrative, very probably. And so, well, it's sad, but unfortunately the world shifts like this. So, we have to adapt. We can't do anything potentially at our level if it's the plan of our governments for a very long time and they are implementing it. We can't do much. And so, what's the impact? Well, the impact is that the currency will continue to devalue and that assets that appreciate will continue to appreciate, quite simply. So, we think of Bitcoin, stocks, indices, and so on and so forth. And that, well, could potentially be positive. And so, will Jerome Powell start talking about it, precisely, about AI starting to replace humans in certain tasks? Will we start to consider that unemployment could increase significantly? Perhaps stop QT, start restimulating liquidity a bit? Honestly, it seems too early to me when DP Morgan tells us "Yes, it's certain that the Fed will cut its QT in 7 weeks," it seems too early to me, but in any case, we already have our next liquidity printing narratives, and well, that's what we need to understand. Now, the short-term impact on Bitcoin, well, it's zero, meaning it's not happening right away. And BTC, it has reached zones where it can turn around. After, it's still a bit early to talk about a reversal. Especially since this week, we are expecting major news, we are expecting the FOMC tomorrow, we are expecting the agreement between the United States and China. We don't really know yet how this agreement will turn out. I remind you that the risk of an agreement with too high tariffs would be inflation rising too much in the United States because we are seeing, for example, in China, that inflation is indeed rising. So, if the tariffs are high enough, it will create more inflation and so, well, it won't allow the Fed to lower interest rates afterwards. And so, that will be priced in by the market. So, in fact, it's a double-edged sword, meaning that the market has reached a zone where it can turn around. In fact, that's what we need to understand. Meaning that, if there is good news, the market has already anticipated it because it has already cleared the zone it needed to clear if it wanted to go down. I'm not saying the market will go down, I'm just saying that if the market misinterprets the tariffs, if there is news that comes out, an agreement, the market literally has the means to fall if it wants to, because it has reached a zone where it can fall. It was the weekly high, meaning that if this is a top and we are starting a bearish swing, Bitcoin has reached the zone it needed to reach to start a new bearish leg. And so, broadly speaking, if there is good news, well, it will accelerate this movement because it has already reached the zone it was supposed to reach to trigger this bearish movement. What would confirm a reversal signal on BTC? It's the increase of this bullish fair value gap here which has delivered the weekly high. So, we observe this impulse candle of Sunday. It also corresponds to the gap on the CME. If Bitcoin maintains this fair value gap, it's positive to continue going higher and continue to work on this bearish fair value gap. And then if we break it, don't forget that we are in a zone, well, that we are in a somewhat complicated trading phase, what is called a megaphone, meaning that the market, in fact, seeks the extremities each time. So, for example, here, we can see that we have reached the stops of this high, we have reached the stops of this low, we have come back to reach the stops of this high, we have come back to reach the stops of this low. And so, theoretically, this is what we could do, a slight ATH, because we are in this megaphone structure which is quite volatile and literally destructive. So, if we manage to break free from this bearish fair value gap, the next step would be to make a new ATH and reach the top of this megaphone. But not go much higher than that if we remain in this megaphone structure. So, slightly recover the stops above the ATH but nothing more. If we really want to accelerate again, we need to break this megaphone structure to accelerate. And so, if this week the news is not good, theoretically BTC has already reached what it had to reach to make a second bearish leg and come back below its lows. So, that's what worries me the most, it's this week's news, because if they are not good, yes, there is literally the means to retrigger a bearish leg because we have hunted the stops to the north and left the stops to the south. So, that's just the little thing to watch out for, to be careful about. There's nothing dramatic, once again, I mean, as long as Bitcoin maintains its daily fair value gap, there is literally the means to go higher. But it must be maintained. If we start to see Bitcoin break this FVG, it wouldn't be very positive and it would bring us back towards its lows, at least towards $106,000, I think. So, that's what we'll need to observe today and tomorrow. Tomorrow with the FOMC, and then at any moment the agreement can fall.
So, will there be no agreement? That's extremely negative because if there's no agreement and Trump, to put pressure, doesn't move his deadline, well, there will be rates of 155% on November 1st because I remind you that it's not plus 100% but 155, and that would be the trigger for a very strong dip, most likely by the market. So, all of this is, well, it's really a situation that is quite complicated and the timing is very, very, very, very tense. Regarding the ETFs. What's interesting is that, well, there's less interest for now, investors are waiting. Meaning that, now the market is moving a little. There, it will liquidate shorts, longs. We see it. As soon as the target is reached, as if by magic, you see my blue line, boom, the market is rejected. We have reached the sellers' stops. Once the stops have been taken, we will look for the buyers' stops, quite simply. It's a market that is looking for liquidity because there is very little action. We see that on the ETFs, there are no more inflows, no more outflows. Yesterday, there were +149 million, but now 149 million is ridiculous for Bitcoin. There is no more interest. Investors are waiting for the major events to come. And to switch to Ethereum, we can see here that on the Ethereum side, it's the same. You see, the inflows, the outflows are contracting. So, interest is decreasing. +100 million as well, I believe, on Ethereum yesterday. So, there are inflows, which is good, but it's very weak. This proves the lack of interest from investors who are precisely waiting for major events to make decisions on an asset like the crypto market, on assets like the crypto market. And so, well, we probably have the same gap on the CME that I will show you here, which we are probably, well, in the process of closing on Ethereum. Here, we are in the process of entering this CME gap, so we risk closing it, which corresponds on our side here to our daily fair value gap. So, it's the same zone as on Bitcoin. Meaning that, if we want Ethereum to continue to rise, it must maintain the daily fair value gap here. So, it extends up to $3970 to reach the stops above $4300 approximately. If we were to lose this daily fair value gap, it wouldn't be very positive and we would probably recover the stops that were left to the south. I remind you that it's a range and that in a range, very often, there is a liquidity grab before initiating the real movement. Here, we see that we haven't taken the stops of our range yet. Here, we still have our stops to the south. We have taken some stops to the north, we haven't taken the base of the range. So, for now, we are still constrained within this range. We will have to wait for the resolution of this range. And it's rather Bitcoin for me that is the most interesting and will dictate the market. But Bitcoin is waiting for major macro events. What can also be noted is that compared to the indices, Bitcoin is still weak. Meaning that, over this entire bullish phase of the US indices, we can see that BTC hasn't done much here. If I show you this, boom, on my entire layout, it didn't work. Maybe the lines don't work, I don't know. But broadly speaking, look at this bullish movement here. See this entire bullish movement, the indices are increasing. From this point, Bitcoin no longer follows. Meaning that, here, you see, BTC is no longer rising while the indices have risen over this entire phase, but BTC was already starting to fall. And now, since the indices are slightly falling, Bitcoin continues to fall. So, that proves this lack of interest from Bitcoin, but especially a clear lack of demand for Bitcoin. The indices are much more bullish than BTC, so there is clearly for the moment a major lack of interest in Bitcoin. Will interest return? Potentially yes. But for now, it's not the case. So, well, we still have to wait a little. There, I repeat, I really think we are waiting for the major events of this week to decide on the BTC market. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to bombard the blue thumbs, subscribe, leave a little comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box. Lots of free content for you. We'll meet again later for the macro review.