Transcription
This is East Asia Tonight. Good evening. I'm Mattel Edwards. Tonight's top stories from East Asia. The region cannot afford to sleepwalk into crisis. That blunt warning from a leading defense think tank flagging rising instability in Asia-Pacific. From unchecked military tech to nuclear proliferation. Now, that report sets the stage for the Shangri-La Dialogue. We track the flashpoints likely to dominate. And with the delegate list now out, what Beijing's representation signals to the region. Also, a rare diplomatic honor. Philippine President Marcos addressing Japan's legislature to champion a rules-based Indo-Pacific and the peaceful settlement of territorial disputes under international law. And the Bank of Korea's new governor keeps the benchmark interest rate unchanged in his policy debut while reinforcing a hawkish stance to curb inflation and support the weakening won. Also ahead, Samsung narrowly avoids a massive strike after reaching a last-minute deal with its workers' union, averting what could have been a huge impact to the South Korean economy. We unpack what's described as a seismic agreement and who really came out on top.
A new report says military doctrines still framed by historical riffs are creating new security challenges in the Asia-Pacific. Now, the International Institute for Strategic Studies released its regional security assessment ahead of the Shangri-La Dialogue this weekend, and it warns of unfettered risks in defense technology and a worrying proliferation of nuclear capability. A world, it says, that is sleepwalking into instability. A region no longer fully at peace. From border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia to brief battles between India and Pakistan, Asia-Pacific is witnessing growing threats to security that a new report warns could be here to stay. London-based IIS highlighting in its new publication what it calls principal fault lines running through the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, and the South China Sea that could lead to conflicts between nuclear-armed powers. All this while major wars are ongoing in Europe and the Middle East that are damaging economies and threatening long-term political stability. The report argues that while security challenges have always been complex, the current pace, scope, and intensity have dramatically increased, and countries are beefing up defenses and strategy to prepare for the real possibility of war.
According to the report, military doctrines, formal or informal, hold the key to how armed forces plan their wartime moves. India, for example, focuses its military doctrine on managing challenges posed by neighbors Pakistan and China, while superpowers China and the US have dueling visions of a possible conflict over Taiwan and securing a stronghold on the Asia-Pacific region. While these doctrines can't predict when a war will break out, they can give a sense of how states choose to deter threats and protect what they claim is theirs. They're largely still shaped by geography, as seen in border and maritime disputes. Asia-Pacific is particularly vulnerable to shifting geopolitical tides in the Indian Ocean, especially for energy transits and trade routes. The most telling recent illustration: Iran's chokehold of the Strait of Hormuz and the US's blockade of the waterway triggering a global energy crisis. Another risk fueling the flames of war: the rise of artificial intelligence, drone warfare, and quantum technology as countries battle for tech supremacy. And finally, the report warns of a growing threat of nuclear war. China and North Korea's growing arsenals have pushed regional states towards expanding their own nuclear capabilities. The report warns that these developments, if left unchecked, are pushing the world closer to a new nuclear arms race with the Asia-Pacific at its center.
Now, my colleague Arnold Gay spoke with Dr. Evan Lakman, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and editor of the Institute's Asia-Pacific Security Assessment Report. And he said that countries no longer regard conventional wars as far-fetched, warning of a growing nuclear race in the Asia-Pacific.
"I think in the last year alone, in 2025 in particular, we've seen uh direct border wars between Thailand and Cambodia. We've seen uh the war in terms of um of of the South Asian continent as well. Uh and so when you look at that and when you look at how the frequency of conflicts uh within the region and that are affecting the region directly have become much more intense um and and certainly the war um in um in the Gulf has direct implications uh for the region as well. Uh and so you have a very uh challenging and combustible mix um between internal security challenges that's always been there, a major security flashpoints that remain unresolved, as well as uh the lack of what I would say restraint uh when it comes to conventional wars. That lack of restraint is now uh fraying and in fact, states are no longer seeing conventional war as something that's far-fetched."
"Right. So, so I want to pick up on that particular point. So, it's not just about the number of conflicts, it's it's how they're being fought as well. How, how, you know, how much of a change uh has that been?"
"Well, I mean, as as we've seen with regards to uh the Thai-Cambodian war, as we've seen with regards uh to India um and Pakistan, uh there are some parts of how they fought those wars feels somewhat similar uh with what we've seen in Ukraine, for example, in terms of the use of drones. Right? Uh the use of um of missiles, um the use of of advanced fighter aircraft. So in that sense, it is conventional um uh use of military assets, uh uh but the ways in which uh they've done it, I think is not at the scale of what we've seen in Ukraine, of course, but because they have not done this before, um this is relatively new in that sense, um that means the next time around, it might be worse."
"Right. I want to pick up again on that particular point uh about military doctrine. It's a special topic in your report. So my question is, why does it matter how the US or China or India prepare to fight each other? I mean, does it really matter in terms of the context here, in terms of the Taiwan uh context as well?"
"So in an interesting way, a a military doctrine can almost become a self-fulfilling prophecy because the idea is that you train how you want to fight. And part of how you train is developing scenarios and exercises as real as you can. And when we look at the growing sophistication of how the US conducts military exercises with uh with its partners and allies in the region, when you look at China's uh military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, then you start to see uh a growing sense of um of tension, not just because of the exercises, but because the way that those exercises are done, the assets deployed, the sophistication. If there are accidents or miscalculations, if there are misinterpretations of those exercises, um then I think the risk of conflict, I think grows as well. And so the doctrinal uh documents, prescriptions, force development exercises, these are all important signs of how serious should we be anticipating a future conflict, how that future conflict might be fought, and to what extent can we find ways to mitigate those risks?"
"I want to ask you about geography now, also a major component of your report. Choke points, coastlines, land borders, um Iran's, if you like, blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, I suppose, is a prime example of of what can happen in this part of the world. Are there the equivalents, you know, that can cause the same kind of havoc and the same kind of crisis, you know, that that has resulted from the strait in the Middle East?"
"Well, I mean, certainly uh across Southeast Asia and and the broader um Asia-Pacific, there are many unresolved uh border um uh disputes, both in terms of land border as well as maritime disputes. So they do become a potential security flashpoint if those issues are unresolved, as we've seen in the South China Sea, as we've seen with the Thai-Cambodian side. But they also provide a sense of parameters of how uh the armed forces of these countries with unresolved disputes plan to fight, how they develop their armed forces on the military side, sorry, on on the army side or for the navy side. I think they all are driven by how they envision a future conflict within their geography might take place. Um and so I think it's particularly uh um uh challenging to look at the geography of the maritime theater in Southeast Asia, for example, whether it's the Straits of Malacca or the other straits on the Indonesian waters that creates the kind of opportunities and challenges for the military uh to maintain uh uh the security of the country. But how they intend to develop their forces, what capabilities to buy, what exercises they have to do, these are all tied to how they view uh the forces of geography in in shaping their military thinking."
"Okay. So, one of the more alarming, and not, and I'm not saying the rest are not alarming or not concerning, is how you uh frame what's happening in terms of there being an early stage, if you like, the early stages of a nuclear arms race in this part of the world. I mean, how did that happen?"
"Well, I think first of all, the uh the nature of arms control and non-proliferation regimes uh have been uh slowly uh decaying. I think um and in the last few years, we've seen uh sort of a much more hardened position to not return to arms control. Uh Russia, China, US, I think certainly are at the top of that list. Uh but also the growing modernization of nuclear weapons, the growth in nuclear arsenals. Uh US military reports make it a point that China continues to grow uh its its nuclear, its nuclear forces. And so when you have on the one hand uh a weakening, if almost uh decaying state of arms control, you have the growing modernization and number of of nuclear weapons uh between nuclear-armed states. And when you add in conventional missile capabilities that are increasingly sophisticated, which in some context could be seen as undermining nuclear deterrence, this is where I think you start to see countries responding to each other's uh uh force modernization and nuclear development. Hence the beginning of an arms race."
China is urging the US to adhere to commitments on Taiwan made during the leadership summit in Beijing this month. The Chinese foreign ministry was responding to a question on the risk of nuclear escalation should the superpowers come into conflict over the island. The US President Donald Trump's summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping ended without a clear resolution on the Taiwan issue. Mr. Trump, however, reportedly discussed in great detail a long-delayed arms sales to the island.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is on a four-day state visit to Japan. Well, this afternoon, he addressed Japanese lawmakers and used his speech to deliver a firm message on regional security. Now, he's in a press conference with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. And you are looking at live pictures out of Tokyo. Now, it certainly has been an exceptional welcome and a clear strategic signal about the future of Philippine-Japan relations. President Marcos's four-day state visit to Japan culminates today. And as mentioned, these live pictures show the president alongside Prime Minister Kishida as the two leaders wrap up talks in Tokyo. The red carpet treatment began yesterday at the Imperial Palace, with President Marcos receiving one of Japan's highest honors during a special meeting with Emperor Naruhito. A powerful symbolic gesture as the two nations mark 70 years of diplomatic ties.
"Prime Minister, the esteemed members of the Japanese and Philippine delegations, friends from the media, ladies and gentlemen. Good evening. Prime Minister Kishida and I just concluded a very productive and forward-looking bilateral meeting covering the ever-expanding scope of Philippine-Japanese relationships. As we commemorate the 70th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between our two countries, I am pleased to announce that we have elevated our relationship from a strengthened strategic partnership to a comprehensive strategic partnership. This milestone reflects the strength, depth, and breadth of our ties as we respond to the evolving challenges and opportunities of our time. Our discussions reaffirmed our commitment to further advanced cooperation across key areas including economic partnership, energy resilience, decarbonization, cooperation in defense and security, maritime matters, as well as emerging and future-oriented sectors. We had meaningful exchanges on regional and global issues, including challenges that are now emerging in the Indo-Pacific region and, of course, the developments in the Middle East and their impact on energy security. We appreciate Japan's expressions of support for the Philippines' chairmanship of ASEAN this year and for ASEAN's unity and centrality today."
And I will have much more from this press conference a little later this hour from our senior correspondent Mitro Ishida, who's following every move for us in Tokyo. Now, as we mentioned, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, in his address to the Japanese Diet's upper house, hailed 70 years of restored diplomatic ties and mutual trust between both countries. He highlighted Japan's role as a top trading partner and largest provider of development assistance for the Philippines and hailed shared cooperation across several areas, including clean energy, space cooperation, and AI. Mr. Marcos also welcomed Japan as a long-standing partner of ASEAN and in promoting a "free and open Indo-Pacific."
"...including in an increasingly complex Indo-Pacific where tensions test the resilience of a rules-based order, our two nations remain unwavering in our commitment to uphold international law, promote stability, and advocate for the peaceful settlement of disputes." He also affirmed the Philippines' position in upholding a rules-based maritime order, while also acknowledging Japan's support for peace and development in regional waters.
"The Philippines and Japan are committed to strengthening maritime security and ensuring that our seas remain open, secure, and governed by rules, not by force."
Mr. Marcos's visit so far has been marked with exceptional hospitality. He has been confirmed a prestigious national award, and a state banquet was held in his honor at the Imperial Palace. And of course, we'll have more details on this with CNA's Mitro Ishida later this hour on how talks between the leaders went.
Coming up on East Asia Tonight, China pushing back against the EU after reports that the bloc could widen import quotas and tariffs on Chinese goods. And Hong Kong sets its sights on Central Asia as it courts more companies from the region to list on its stock exchange.
Hello again. Good to have your company on East Asia Tonight. It is time now to get our business updates from Olivia Marzuki. So, Liv, let's talk about uh South Korea's uh central bank. Apparently, it's held the rates steady, but uh tell us more. I mean, this does not exactly mean it's a dovish pause, is it?
"That's right, Otelli. So, the BOK stayed on hold, but the sentiment and the message was more cautious than markets may have hoped. The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged at 2.5%, citing growing financial stability concerns. The decision reflects a broader shift by central banks away from monetary easing as energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict fuel inflation pressures. Despite headwinds, the economy rebounded stronger than expected in recent months, driven by AI exports and investment. GDP expanded 1.7% in the first quarter from the previous three months. Chip exports surged more than 200% in the first 20 days of May. At the same time, inflation pressures intensified. Headline inflation breached the central bank's 2% target, rising to 2.6% in April. A weakening won is also pushing up costs in supermarkets and factories. Housing-related risks remain elevated. New central bank Governor Shin Hyong-seung signaling a hawkish tilt in his policy debut, saying trends in inflation, growth, and the currency, as well as housing, point to a clearer policy path ahead. The BOK bumped up its inflation outlook for this year to 2.7% from an earlier projection of 2.2%. It's factoring in the spillover effects from rising oil prices. It also raised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.6% from 2%. Economists say the new projections are also likely to fuel speculation of rate hikes to come. While the Korean won largely unchanged following the decision, the benchmark Kospi closing down around half a percent as markets have been wagering on a hike."
China has pushed back against the European Union's plan to expand import quotas and tariffs on Chinese goods. The bloc says the measures are needed to protect European industries that are being threatened by Chinese overproduction. But China's foreign ministry dismissed the EU's rationale for the trade imbalance. For the EU's Industry Commissioner Thierry Breton says the bloc faces a daily trade deficit of around $1 billion US dollars and 29 million jobs are at risk from Chinese overproduction. The EU's commissioners are scheduled to hold a debate tomorrow on the bloc's relationship with China.
Hong Kong is making a push into Central Asia to attract companies to its stock exchange. HKEX Chief Executive Bonnie Chan says the city-state offers the deep liquidity needed for growing Asian Central Asian firms, especially those looking at secondary listings. She will be part of a high-level delegation led by Hong Kong leader John Lee to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in early June. The pitch comes as Central Asia's economies expand quickly. Kazakhstan is the region's largest economy, growing 6.5% last year. Uzbekistan grew even faster at 7.7%. Both countries are strategic Belt and Road partners, linking trade between China and Europe. Ms. Chan says she expects more Central Asian firms to raise funds in Hong Kong in the coming years, calling it an inevitable trend. There are already signs of that link-up. HKEX says closer ties with regional exchanges could help create deeper pools of liquidity rather than leaving markets fragmented.
TSMC staff can expect a more than 30% bump in their profit-sharing payouts this year. That's according to a report citing TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei. It is part of plans to expand the chipmaker's employee incentive program as the company posts record profits. This after several employees expressed their discontent online over rumors that the chipmaker would reduce bonuses due to a ramping up of overseas investment. It also comes in the wake of a deal struck between Samsung Electronics and its largest union earlier this week. Tens of thousands of Samsung Electronics semiconductor employees are in line for bonuses after they agreed a landmark pay deal with the tech giant. So, who gets what? Well, the bonus will be paid to workers at the firm's memory chip division. That is about 78,000 employees of the firm's 125,000 domestic workforce. And each of them is expected to be paid an average of $400,000 US in the form of company shares as early as next year. But the actual payouts depend on the chip division's future operating profit. But the fat paycheck isn't a one-for-all scheme. The deal has fueled tensions among workers in other divisions who are being left with comparatively tiny bonuses, including those in Samsung's smartphone unit. They will receive just $4,000 in special payments, also in the form of company shares. And how does this compare to rival SK Hynix? Well, an average employee there can expect a bonus of around $270,000 based on Q1 results. But analysts say its payment could end up topping Samsung's as they expect an even bigger four-year profit figure. And what could the deal mean for the wider nation? The Federation of Korean Trade Unions called on the government to establish fair distribution mechanisms so that the enormous productivity gains and profits generated are not just concentrated in the hands of a few. The deal has already fanned a debate over how AI profits should be distributed. A senior presidential official has floated the idea of a "national dividend," arguing that excess AI-related tax revenue could be used to support social welfare programs. It has also created a sort of domino effect with workers in sectors ranging from biotech to autos to shipbuilding asking for a larger share of the profits. However, corporate groups have been quick to point out that the situation in Samsung is a unique case of an industry in the middle of an exceptional boom. Ben Ammons of Fdatch Advisors tells us how sharing AI profits with employees also stands to benefit the company.
"Should be good because, you know, it retains talent and it drives productivity of of the workers who receive these bonuses. And and although it could affect, I guess, the the bottom line somewhat because of of cost, ultimately these bonuses are driven by performance. And so paying out this type of compensation, I think is only a good thing for the for the company in terms of growth. And what the challenge maybe will be is that it's not to the satisfaction of of the workers when we get more revenue generated as a result and they're going to go back to negotiations trying to have even more bonuses. Then I think that will become a negative story. But I think this has ended it well for the workers, but also well for the company. I think that this is only going to propel Samsung even further given the demand for for chips globally from Samsung."
NIO shares getting a boost from its new luxury SUV launch. The stock jumped by as much as 10% in Hong Kong and ended the day up 6.3%, while following a 9% rally in the US-listed shares. The Chinese EV maker says its six-seater ES8 is the country's largest electric SUV. New car models in China are getting bigger, driven by higher profit margins. With subsidies for cheaper EVs reduced, consumers now have more incentive to buy larger vehicles. That's intensifying competition in the large SUV segment, with NIO's lower retail price highlighting the pressure. Known for its battery-swapping technology, NIO is also planning overseas expansion over the next two to three years. But for now, its focus remains on the domestic market where EV sales still have room to grow in underserved areas. And that's all a wrap in business for you, Otelli. Back to you.
Thanks so very much for that business update, Olivia. Right, we're going to go for a short break now, but coming up next, top security and defense forum, the Shangri-La Dialogue starts tomorrow here in Singapore, with a war on Iran and escalating territorial disputes in Asia set to dominate discussions. We'll speak with our senior correspondents Olivia and Leong Wit for more on what to watch and expect.
Hello again. You're watching East Asia Tonight and here are the headlines we're following. A warning that the world is sleepwalking into instability. The International Institute for Strategic Studies says that the Middle East conflict and the war in Ukraine pose major security challenges in Asia as the region deals with territorial disputes from within. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos conclude talks in Tokyo, deepening cooperation on defense and security. Now, Mr. Marcos also addressed the Japanese Parliament, hailing 70 years of trust and diplomacy. Plus, the Bank of Korea's new governor keeps the benchmark interest rate unchanged in his policy debut, while indicating higher rates ahead to curb inflation and support the weakening won.
This year's edition of the Shangri-La Dialogue starts tomorrow here in Singapore, bringing together defense chiefs, ministers, and security experts. Now, the summit comes at a time of rising tensions and uncertainties in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. From maritime security, China's role in the region, to cross-border conflicts, historical wounds, and long-standing territorial disputes continue to shape Asia's security landscape. The forum is expected to offer crucial signals on where regional defense ties are headed. AUKUS cooperation is also expected to be closely watched as Australia, the US, and UK seek to open their three-member defense pact. Washington's message will also be a key focus as allies seek clarity on where they stand with the United States. And for uh more on what to watch out for and what could emerge from these meetings, we are joined here in our studio by CNA senior China editor Olivia and senior correspondent for ASEAN Leong Wit. Thank you both for coming into our studio today. Uh so Olivia, I'm just going to kick things off with you first because the speakers list, I believe, was just out not too long ago. Uh tell us more about the Chinese representation this year. What, what jumps out?
"Yeah, we know that is always something that we're looking out for. We already do know that uh the US Secretary of War Pete Hagerty will be attending the Shangri-La Dialogue again. And um now we're getting some confirmation on who the Chinese representative will be represented by. Uh the representation is similar to last year's. We're not seeing the Chinese Defense Minister's name on the confirmed speaker list. Instead, the Defense Ministry uh is saying that the Chinese delegation is being led by Major General Xu Qiliang. He is a professor of the Chinese People's Liberation Army's National Defense University and also a member of the National Committee of China's top political advisory body. And according to a military analyst that I've been speaking to, Professor Xu is seen as an expert in uh, you know, international security issues. He regularly appears in Chinese state media to talk about and explain China's position on issues like uh China's military drills around Taiwan. He's also no stranger to the Shangri-La Dialogue. Last year, he was quoted in Chinese media rebutting comments made by the Philippines Defense Secretary on the South China Sea at uh one at his plenary session. Um, so, you know, the Chinese Defense Ministry in Beijing was having its regular press briefing today. Uh my colleague Rebecca Mateo also asked the spokesperson to elaborate on uh the thinking and considerations behind who they're sending to this security summit in Singapore. Let's have a listen."
"Could the spokesperson share more details about China's delegation to this weekend's Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, including who will lead the delegation and the considerations behind it? And also, more broadly, how does China view the dialogue's role as a summit security summit platform amid current global developments? Thank you."
"So while the Chinese Defense Minister doesn't look like he will be attending, um it seems that there will be no big plenary session in the main ballroom for China, as that's usually reserved for uh defense chiefs. But that doesn't necessarily mean China's voice is not going to be heard over the next few days. We have seen, according to the agenda, Professor Xu is expected to speak at a smaller special session on Saturday on the theme of managing threats to strategic stability. Also listed as a confirmed speaker at the event is Cui Tiankai. Now, he's uh a former Chinese Vice Foreign Minister. He also was the longest-serving Chinese ambassador to the US, spending three US administrations, including those rather rocky times in the relationship during the trade war, and as this rivalry between the two major powers has uh really intensified. He will be speaking notably at a special session as well, alongside Lieutenant General George Roel, who is deputy commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command. So we'll be keeping an eye out for that. But beyond who is speaking, um perhaps the bigger point that analysts and we will be looking out for is what does this mean about uh with regard to how Beijing views the Shangri-La Dialogue itself. It would seem that the representation does show that perhaps it is not so much as an emphasis for China. Perhaps placing placing greater priority on its own forum in Beijing, where analysts say perhaps it sees that as it being able to speak more on its own terms."
"Yeah, makes sense there. And obviously, one of the things that we always look out for is the keynote speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue. And why I want to get your take here, because Vietnam's President Tô Lâm, he is going to be making uh that keynote speech. Uh what do you think is going to be on his agenda?"
"Well, firstly, I want to talk about the significance of it because if you talk about uh a Vietnam leader being invited to speak on the SLD platform, many would say it's rare. One analyst pointed out that look, Vietnam is not a treaty ally of the US. Um, and if you look at all the past keynote speakers of the SLD, you can categorize them as either US allies or close Western partners. But the SLD organizers couch this as a historic moment because Mr. Tô Lâm is speaking in the capacity of both the country's party chief and also the country's president. Of course, that makes him the most powerful man in Vietnam since the Vietnam War. Now, end of the Vietnam War. Now, when Mr. Tô Lâm comes to the SLD, my my expectation will be he would articulate Vietnam's foreign policy, and you will hear key words and commitments such as the need for self-reliance, the need for strategic autonomy, and also a very key message that Vietnam is not here to choose sides. Remember, Otelli, about a month ago, I was here talking to you about Mr. Tô Lâm's trip to uh China. That was when he was elected president, he chose China as his first trip. Uh and while there, he called China a strategic choice, top priority. But China, but Vietnam is also very careful to balance the optics. Analysts would keep reminding you that the trip to China is uh it follows a historic precedence. Vietnamese leaders traditionally go to China as a first trip. Um, but analysts would also remind you that Mr. Tô Lâm had also met uh Mr. Donald Trump earlier this year and uh um in 2025 has also met Russia's Vladimir Putin. Now that Mr. Tô Lâm is president, he's been traveling. He's in Thailand, um now coming to Singapore tomorrow, Philippines next. And no doubt, one of his key messages is multilateralism, which is also a very key element of uh Vietnam's foreign policy. And um I want to talk about that sobering report from the IISS there, and I want to highlight um that report specifically saying that the region is no longer fully at peace. So um Wit, what are some of the key flashpoints that you think it's going to be, you know, debated and discussed upon at this year's dialogue?"
"Right. If we look at the Indo-Pacific region, um, one of the IISS experts said that if you compare this year to last year, tensions have, I quote, definitely increased. And one of the big themes here is your your cross-border developments. For example, whatever is happening at the Strait of Hormuz directly affects the Asian economies. And you know, the ASEAN summit leaders have been talking about your energy disruption and supply uh uh routes that has a direct effect here. And the increasingly competitive Indo-Pacific would also mean that it's going to be overcrowded on the maritime. Here you've got your naval ships from from various countries, and there's always this risk of miscalculation or miscommunication. That said, navies and countries in the Indo-Pacific are taking steps to mitigate those tensions. Um, earlier I spoke to an IISS expert, Dashana Baruata. This is what she said. Take a listen."
"The naval domain and the and and the maritime domain is moving from just being in the silos of the navy to foreign ministries and policymakers, and that has become a component of bilateral uh bilateral relationships. So conversations and engagements between navies are going to be absolutely critical in ensuring that it does not lead to lead to escalation."
"Yeah. So separately, another defense analyst told me that behind the scenes, navies around the region are now cooperating more. There are more joint patrols. They're sharing intel more often, and they're also cooperating with navies outside the region. And all these add to efforts to keep the Indo-Pacific tension, you know, keeping it low. So Olivia, I want to bring you into the conversation because you, you know, we can't talk about the Shangri-La Dialogue without talking about US-China ties, and it appears uh to be somewhat more stable after President Trump's uh visit to China. But in terms of the the military relationship, right, I mean, is it any different, and how do you think things are going to be playing out at the event?"
"And that's an interesting question because at the end of President Trump's visit to Beijing, both sides agreed to build this constructive relationship, talk about strategic stability. Um, but, you know, speaking to analysts, it's very clear that the thorny issues still remain. Having said that, though, we have to note that uh US Secretary of War Pete Hagerty was in President Trump's delegation to Beijing. He said, uh, with uh the Chinese Defense Minister, General Wei Fenghe, we know that they chatted. What exactly they spoke about, we don't know. But following the visit, the two sides did say that they agreed to make better use of communication channels, including in uh military-to-military fields. The Chinese Defense Ministry also said the PLA is willing to improve dialogue and manage differences with the US. And you mentioned that IISS report, but it did say that in the Asia-Pacific, a possible conflict between the US and China over Taiwan, especially, has loomed large in recent years. And that's also because um this strategic rivalry between the two sides uh hasn't disappeared after just one visit. Have a listen."
"Dialogue for dialogue's sake is important at the end of the day. Um, whether or not there were concrete um takeaways on specific security issues aside, I do think however that the steps that we saw each side take um represent more tactical changes in the bilateral relationship rather than wholesale strategic shifts. At the end of the day, strategic competition is still a driver in how these two countries view each other. Um, and that I imagine will continue."
"And so all eyes will all eyes will really be on that speech by the US Defense Chief, how the Chinese delegates respond to it, but also remembering that this is a three-day event. Um, it's a dialogue, but going beyond that, what is also key is what's happening on the sidelines. A lot of engagement, a lot of talks. Even though uh it looks like the Chinese Defense Minister isn't going to be here, analysts are saying that there are still more opportunities for the two sides to speak in person, and the fact that they are speaking is a positive sign for the region."
"All right. And I know it's going to be a very busy next few days for you both. Uh we're looking forward to your coverage. Uh thanks so much for being here with us in the studio today. And uh there I was just chatting with CNA senior China editor Olivia and senior correspondent for ASEAN Leong Wit. And from Friday to Sunday, we will be bringing you the latest from the region's top defense and security forum with updates, reaction, and analysis throughout the day. So do join us for that. And you can also get the latest from our website cna.asia or on our mobile app. Right on that note, we are going to go for another short break now."
"...are coming up next. Japan rolled out the red carpet for the Philippine leader. Our senior correspondent Mitro Ishida joins us in just a moment to break down major agreements reached during this visit."
Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan has described recent US-China developments as a positive step, but one step of a longer journey. President Donald Trump's trip to Beijing this month is now framed as a constructive relationship of strategic stability. Dr. Balakrishnan was speaking to the media at the end of his five-day visit to Northeast Asia. Nazra Rohim with the details.
During his visit to China earlier in the week, Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan gathered that China is pleased with the outcome of President Trump's visit. As both sides have found a new balance, there will still be pushing and shoving. But the old strategies of containment and exclusion will not work. So the key point is somehow, one way or another, sooner or later, the United States and China need to find a modus vivendi. And I think these engagements between the two presidents and the fact that they have high regard for one another, and the fact that both China and the United States recognize that these are two peer superpowers here to stay for the long term, and neither side can exclude the other completely or even achieve a complete victory over the other.
After visiting North Korea, Dr. Balakrishnan shared that within Pyongyang itself, there is development: new housing and e-commerce.
"The other thing which has changed quite markedly, I would say, is their current outright categorical rejection of reunification with the ROK. Uh, this seems to be a a more recent hardened position. Uh, and I'm I'm sure there are more detailed local domestic reasons for that stand, but nevertheless, it is what it is. They do not accept any possibility of reunification."
Another thing that has changed, as observed by Dr. Balakrishnan, is that at this point, North Korea appears not to be keen on any engagement with either the US or South Korea. Instead, it is focusing on building up self-reliance and its own military deterrence. When asked if Singapore has a role to play as a neutral channel of communications, Dr. Balakrishnan says Singapore is not putting up its hand in this matter.
"For Northeast Asia, in a sense, because Singapore is a small city-state dependent on trade and, you know, safe and stable maritime corridors and supply chains. Peace in Northeast Asia is of great importance to us. So, for instance, the situation in the Korean Peninsula, stability here does have profound impact if anything goes wrong."
In reference to his recent trips, Dr. Balakrishnan says it is necessary to engage old friends and new partnerships. Even in this digital age, there is no substitute for face-to-face meetings, shaking hands, and understanding each other's perspectives.
Philippine President Marcos Jr. and his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida announcing today the elevation of diplomatic ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Now, the upgrade coincides with the 70th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic ties between both countries. And for the very latest, we are joined now by CNA senior correspondent Mitro Ishida, live from Tokyo. Uh, Mitch, first up, walk us through what are some of the key agreements uh and deals that came out today?
"Well, definitely the upgrading to a comprehensive strategic partnership is a big deal. Uh, this means collaboration will depend, uh, deepen in a wide range of areas, signifying the highest level of political trust, and it's regarded as the first high-level partnership for the Philippines. They will start discussing GOMIA, or the General Security of Military Information. It's an agreement which Japan has so far with 10 countries, which includes the US, Australia, India, and the UK. And Japan will advance transfer of defense equipment, and for that, we'll start discussing the transfer of its Abukuma-class destroyer. Now, on the economic front, they signed a treaty for the avoidance of double taxation, greater cross-border investment, cooperation in agriculture, fisheries, improve quality of the health sector, carbon emission, development of human resources, and advanced cooperation in future-oriented areas such as artificial intelligence and space."
"And Mitro, we know that both countries face territorial disputes with China. Curious to know, was there any mention of that during the presser earlier?"
"Well, indeed, Japanese media has been highlighting Japan's highest level hospitality is meant towards uh Mr. Marcos Jr. on the back of tensions both countries face uh between China, but uh neither mentioned in public, China. Now, uh Mr. Marcos Jr. indirectly mentioned China when he addressed the upper house of the Diet, referring to 10 years since the arbitral tribunal awarded under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to the disputes between the Philippines and China. Now, he said, regardless of size and power, all states are equal, have a voice, and they're free to pursue development with international norms and law. Now, Mr. Marcos Jr. referred to Japan's steadfast support at times of heightened challenges, from maritime support to extending support for the Philippines, which has energy needs, given the situation in the Middle East. Now, Japan has been offering defense-related equipment to the Philippines under its Official Security Assistance program. So far, it's offered coastal and air surveillance radar systems, and next, Japan's Abukuma-class destroyer is a possibility. Now, Ms. Kishida said the Philippines is important as they share common values and they can work together for the realization of a free and open Indo-Pacific. And Mr. Marcos is expected to depart from Japan on Friday."
Many thanks uh for that report on Japan-Philippines relations. CNA senior correspondent Mitro Ishida speaking with us live from Tokyo. And before we go, a new ferry service is launching today that will add another direct maritime link between Japan and Taiwan. The Yaeyama will initially ply a weekly route, departing from northern Taiwan's Keelung port on Thursday and returning from southern Japan's Ishigaki on Sunday. A second weekly sailing is expected to begin in July. Now, Ishigaki's mayor, who was present at the launching ceremony, said that the route will serve as a new bridge supporting tourism and other exchanges. Japan was a top destination for Taiwanese residents last year, accounting for more than a third of nearly 19 million overseas trips. The attraction appears mutual. Taiwan's largest source of tourists last year was Japan, making up more than 17% of all foreign arrivals. And that's all we've got for you for this Thursday's edition of East Asia Tonight. Don't forget your headlines anytime at cna.asia. Thanks for watching.