Transcription
Hey, hey, hey! Want to have money to spend for life but don't know where to start? No need to try and fail yourself, because we have gathered the secrets from 8 real, genuine gurus for our friends. It includes in-depth, step-by-step details and checklists. Stocks are results that have proven effective. Examples in the book include how friends can allocate money and follow along immediately, including a framework for comprehensive financial planning in a full system across various assets. All of this is included in this one book. The book "How to Have Money to Spend for Life." Want to change your financial life, friends? Order now today. You can order online as provided in the caption below the clip, as well as at C bookstores and leading bookstores nationwide today. Hello, hello to all investor friends. This is Off the Recordic, the podcast. Tuesday, June 30, 2026. Today, we'll also discuss gold and other assets because UBS has predicted that gold will go up another 30%. What we're seeing drop like this, I think there's a chance it will continue to rise, but I'll explain the reasons why. Let's start with the first point. What we're seeing in the US stock market is a phenomenon called "Mega Rotation," or a large capital shift in the stock market. This explains the situation where investors are heavily moving their investments and exiting giant tech stocks, like the Magnificent 7. Their performance, while still good, is starting to be rotated or shifted to more cyclical stocks and value stocks that many might not have been paying attention to. Now, they're starting to emerge. If you look at the Magnificent 7 tech stocks that were once hot, like NVIDIA, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Tesla, they've become a group that, since the beginning of the year, hasn't performed as well as expected compared to other groups. The main reason is the shortage of processors driven by the AI trend. This has caused memory costs to skyrocket, by over 200%, almost tripling. This problem puts pressure on the costs of large tech companies, like Microsoft and Apple, which have seen their stock prices adjust downwards after price adjustments for their devices due to higher costs. The second point is that capital is not leaving the market; it's not leaving at all, but it's just shifting its value to other groups. We're starting to see selling in tech stocks, which doesn't mean investors are abandoning the stock market, but rather they want to rotate to other groups. They choose to take profits from semiconductor stocks whose prices have surged dramatically and move towards groups with more value. This rotation, what we see clearly from the Dow Jones, remains strong and has reached intraday highs, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are also facing difficult times. So, what are the new winning groups? Capital is flowing out of tech groups and into small companies, healthcare, and industrial groups. Beyond value, these groups are also benefiting from a significant factor: falling energy costs in recent weeks and lower long-term interest rates, which are conducive to business. The clearest statistical evidence of this rotation is the performance of the S&P 500, equally weighted, which is not dominated by tech stocks. Because tech stocks are so large, if we use an equal weight, we'll find that the index has actually increased by about 11% since the beginning of 2026. However, the regular S&P 500, based on market capitalization, which includes the Magnificent 7, has only risen by 7%. This statistic reflects what? It reflects that this is a signal confirming that investors are rotating to other groups, to defensive groups, to small-cap stocks, to value stocks. This reinforces that market recovery, or the fact that stocks across various industries are rising simultaneously, is more important to investors than growth concentrated in just 7-8 stocks, driven by the momentum of tech stocks previously. Now, let's look at another interesting point: commodities. I'm referencing Goldman Sachs, which says we are now in an era of volatility and a supply crisis for commodities, but it will be different from the past. In the past, oil and natural gas were the main commodities driving inflation because energy costs permeated consumer goods prices and businesses. But in the new era, the main drivers have changed. It has shifted from relying on oil to relying on metals crucial for industry. Commodities like electricity, precious metals like gold, and industrial metals like copper and lithium are becoming groups that are likely to see prices surge dramatically, with sharp spikes. This is considered a "super trend," as they call it. It requires extreme stimulation of demand. Demand for new-era commodities is driven by rapidly growing industries. What are they? First, electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy. Increased reliance on EVs and investment in clean energy require massive investment in the electricity grid. The creation of data centers for AI also stimulates demand for electricity, including copper. This is a very significant factor. This trend has driven copper prices to new record highs since late 2015. There's also increased defense spending, which is another factor supporting demand for copper, lithium, aluminum, and electricity. The reason for this is something called structural fragility and bottlenecks. We are currently facing a tight supply crisis. It's not just due to increased demand, but also due to production capacity limitations. I would say that the electricity infrastructure system is currently facing severe bottlenecks. Furthermore, metal refining industries are highly concentrated, especially in just a few geographical areas on Earth. Therefore, the supply side is highly fragile and is unlikely to be able to keep up with soaring demand. The result? When such a supply crisis occurs, it leads to an economic trend where both commodity prices and costs are rising, but economic growth is slowing down. To cope with uncertainty, what is recommended? Since we cannot predict which industry will face the next supply issue, what we need to do is use hedging tools. We recommend investing in a diversified portfolio of commodities, including precious metals, to ensure that the overall portfolio generates positive real returns during periods when other assets or industries are disrupted by supply shortages. This is why UBS has predicted that prices, which have fallen by about 23-24% from their peak since January until now, are currently at what level? Let me check. The current gold price is $4,025. The medium-term outlook isn't very good, but this drop is clearing around $4,025 to $4,040. In fact, during 2024 to 2026, gold will be the star, everyone will talk about gold. It rose by almost double, right? But analysts from UBS estimate that gold prices may rise another 28% to $5,200 within the next 12 months. The three main factors that UBS predicts will surely drive gold prices higher are: First, the US. I think current market participants may be overestimating the hawkishness of the US Federal Reserve under the new Chair, Kevin Watch. They might be expecting it to be too tight, perhaps not that tight. UBS sees it differently. They say the Fed's next move is more likely to be a rate cut rather than a hike. This, combined with UBS's forecast that economic growth may slow down next year, will be a period when the Fed needs to cut rates to stimulate the economy. This situation will encourage investors to flock to safe-haven assets like gold. This is factor one. Factor two: I think the current holding of dollar positions is too stretched, too tight, and there's a chance of depreciation. When considered alongside the increasing US fiscal deficit, it will lead to a weaker dollar. Historically, a weaker dollar has been a positive factor for gold. This is a prediction, but currently, it's tight, very strong. The third factor: there is continuous buying from central banks worldwide. The demand for gold is currently steady, which keeps the price floor relatively stable and prevents gold prices from falling further. For example, in May, central banks of countries like Poland and China bought an additional 18 tons of gold. Poland bought 18 tons, China bought 10 tons. So, these three factors are considered positive by UBS, who believe there's still potential for further gains. This is different from others. I must say, for example, Goldman Sachs is now revising its target downwards to around $5,400, from $5,400 to $4,900. Morgan Stanley has also revised its target downwards, expecting to be around $4,600 by year-end, which is still about 15% higher than now. However, UBS is going against the trend, raising their target to $5,200. So, what investment strategy do they recommend? They suggest allocating a portion of your portfolio to gold, ranging from single digits to mid-level percentages. This is because gold has a low correlation with other asset classes. Therefore, having gold in your portfolio will increase flexibility and help protect the overall investment portfolio. So, this is their perspective. Overall, the global market is currently facing a situation where commodity prices are rising, inflation is high, and the overall economy may show signs of slowing down. In such a scenario, investors may not be able to expect returns from concentrated investments in high-growth stocks, as they have in the past two years. Diversification is necessary. One of the assets that should be in your portfolio is commodities. They say commodities are in a super cycle. UBS also favors gold because, statistically, it can balance our portfolio during periods of rotation and big shifts in investment. So, it's up to us how we play it. But if you still like stocks, there are small-cap stocks, healthcare stocks, and industrial stocks that still have potential to rise. The reason is that energy costs have decreased in the last 2-3 weeks, and long-term interest rates are starting to adjust downwards, which will be favorable for these groups. So, the three groups I mentioned are industrial, healthcare, and small-cap. Tech groups will be sold off and rotated to other groups for now. So, that's about it, friends. What do you think? Does gold still have the potential to be in a long-term uptrend? If you think it has the potential to reach $5,200 as UBS predicts, press 1. Press 1 if you think gold will go up. If you think, "No, the recent drops in gold, the short-to-medium term outlook isn't good, and it has the potential to reverse downwards," press 2. If you think gold will go up, press 1. If you think gold will go down, press 2. Please type your answer so I know what you all think. Oh, the opinions are divided. There are both 1s and 2s. The opinions are divided. There are 1s and 2s. Ah, 1, but 1 is becoming the majority. Oh, 2 is also catching up closely. But looking at the overall picture, it seems like 1. Many still believe it will go up. Okay. Hmm, hmm. Ah, more are coming in. One person said 1, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1. Oh, are you an old subscriber? Okay, so that's about it for today. We'll update quickly. Friends, if you enjoy these casual discussions, please press number 8 and share with your friends. And for those who like me to use AI to teach about investing, we've released 6 episodes. Please press number 8 and type "teach" to let me know. You can watch the replays. We've had 6 episodes and will continue as long as you all like it. For those who want to support the channel, ask me. If you want to do it for free first, you can subscribe on YouTube. If you're on Facebook or TikTok, press Follow. If you want to pay, but not for free, you can get a book and gain knowledge. You can buy the book "Crisis Teller" by Ajarn Taweesuk Thamsak. You can order it through two channels. The first channel is Shopee. Just type "Crisis Teller" as the book title. The second channel is the website provided in the caption below the clip. You can buy this book through both channels. "Thai Stocks: P' Beer Won Wannapob's Perspective from a Trader's Viewpoint, Technical Analysis, Many Case Studies." I think if you finish reading this book, you'll become more skilled or gain a lot more insight from a trader's perspective. You can buy it through two channels as well. The first channel is the website link provided in the caption below the clip. The second channel is Shopee. 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The game called the Thai stock market, for beginners, we need to understand the rules of the game. It's not just about buying and selling; that's just one process of decision-making. When we understand, we can choose to play the game we are good at, not play every game. >> "Thai Stocks" is P' Beer Won Wannapob's first book, which chronicles his journey from being in the red to becoming a top trader in Thailand. >> I have suffered all sorts of losses. I want friends to learn from my mistakes, from what I've experienced, from what I've explained. What I've overcome is not something complex or too difficult to do. Everything recorded here is all the knowledge I truly possess. It's all in this book. >> Order the book "Thai Stocks" today through the link in the caption below the clip on both Facebook and YouTube channels of "Ask Me." 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