Transcription
Today's number, guys, is three because we are witnessing something that you just do not see very often. A cluster of Hindenburg omens, massive darkpool transactions, and a market in freefall in certain precious metals and asset classes. So, what exactly is going on from both a trader and investor's insight? Well, we'll seek to answer that as we go through what the bond markets are doing, darkpool transactions from Wall Street, and of course, that all-important options flow. Several key levels have been hit, and markets are getting out of control. Join us as we cover stocks, commodities, and cryptos in more detail. Do not miss this one, guys. We'll see you in a moment.
Well, welcome back, everybody, to the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atinson, and in today's video, we'll be taking a look at the macro, the data, and of course, what Wall Street has been up to over the last couple of sessions, including these big earnings results that are leading into even further falls in an asset class that we already thought was weak quite a few weeks ago. Now, what is it and why does it matter? Well, of course, it all comes back to what we've been seeing on the channel for quite some time. If you're new here, by the way, subscribe, smash the alert button. It's great to have you on board. We love markets. You guys love markets. And of course, uh, we talk about them here every day. But one of the big things has been that technology stocks have been sick for quite some time. In fact, since the Federal Reserve did their first rate cut back in September of last year, we started to notice a very large slowdown when it came to the Magnificent 7. And as we've talked about concentration and the fact that 10 stocks make up pretty much 37% of the S&P meant that the S&P was most likely going to go sideways for a while. Well, now it's hit that all-important 7K marker and it's been rejected a few times. And in our last video, we talked about this stat here from Subu Trade, which was that basically we had consumer staples up while technology was down. And that this often led into a period of volatility, sometimes even more extreme that could last quite some time. Now, did it happen before? Well, yes, it actually did. And it happened last year in 2025, which led into a tariff tantrum. And of course, the market's pulling back quite substantially. But the more important thing is, are we actually heading into something bigger? And that's a question we always ask ourselves and we try to figure out through cross-correlation, data, macro, all of those types of things.
Well, as we mentioned off this week, and I posted this over on our X account, FX Evolution, the links down below, we have been seeing quite a few large movements in terms of some worrying forward indicators. One of those was falling US truck sales, pointing to a spike, unfortunately, in the unemployment rate. Now, you might say, "Yes, this is caused by other things," but there are some pieces of evidence lining up here with previous times that were a bit worrying in the economy. And obviously, we have to bring this together with some of the big stats that we're seeing right now, including one of those big reads, which is the Hindenburg omen. Now, if you're familiar with the Hindenburg omen, we've seen it trigger so many times over the last couple of years. And more importantly, it's not really about one trigger, it's about many of them. And Subu Trade here has just updated to find that we have now had three Hindenburg omens over the past month, which basically means we're getting what we call a cluster. Now, if you have a look here at the stats for the next two months, yeah, they're not actually very good. Only 27% of the time is the market actually bullish over that period. And it could come in to be kind of our suspicion of Q1 this year was that we might see a midterm election year kind of like freak out on the markets, possibly see a buy the dip, and then maybe even see another dip later on this year. Remember, midterm election years, especially this one, are going to be quite tumultuous in the markets. And of course, we have a new Fed chair as well that's being, well, it's been announced and all of that stuff that comes with this.
But maybe more surprising is what's going on in the metals markets, crypto, and indeed some of the other asset classes because not all things are equal. Yes, tech's falling off. Yes, we're seeing huge movements in silver, but uh, we are also seeing massive darkpool transactions. And it's a bit of a shame this one came out a little bit later, but it was a sweep that happened just before silver dumped again. And you can see that these sweeps really do matter. And what a sweep is, if you're a first-time viewer, is basically a very fast transaction that was done in a hurry between two massive entities. And then, of course, a darkpool means it was done basically and then announced later on. And you can see here a monster transaction came through, and since that point, we've taken a new low in silver. Now, that might look bad, and of course, it is to many people out there, but the thing about silver is when we dropped as fast as we did the other day, generally I have a saying, if you want to stop a freight train, it usually takes some structure. And in this case, we are starting to potentially see some structure forming. So that's why I always say, and I think one of the big things is, you're better off buying the V than buying the dip. And that can be a big problem when you buy the dip off a massive drop like this and you don't know necessarily exactly what you're doing. Either way, we'll talk about silver later on today's video, but I did want to bring up whether the bond market is freaking out yet.
Because of course, you can see here based on this chart here from Robin J. Brooks and courtesy of Daily Chartbook, some pretty large fiscal policies here when it comes to total debt issuance throughout some of the major economies of the world. The US obviously has been doing plenty of fiscal dominance or fiscal debt issuance, and Canada has as well, and so have many countries around the world with Canada actually in particular, um, jumping on up along with the UK here with some pretty big prints in terms of long-term debt writing. And this can cause a concern, especially if people start to say, "Hey, I want to get paid more for the risk that I'm taking by issuing by giving you effectively this money on loan." Now, why is this all important? Well, it comes back to bonds and of course, it comes back to credit swaps as well. And according to Daily Chartbook here and TS Lombard, we're actually seeing emerging market credit spreads lessening. Now, you might think, "Oh, that's all good." But that has happened before, and uh, it's happened before, before the global financial crisis. In fact, generally speaking, you often see kind of emerging markets become the late cycle kind of read. And we've now seen around six months to three to six months of late of kind of like emerging markets becoming the favored uh index in the world in terms of most people are looking at that in the big, big money, and they've been moving into it. But at the same time, it's being seen as a bit more of a safe haven. Now, according to bonds and emerging market spreads, that's exactly what's happening. And in the US, we're also seeing not many people seem to freak out about the debt at this stage. You can see here this chart from Jim Pollson, and basically it shows here that volatility is actually quite low in the bond market. Now, I expect this to spike with what we've just seen in the last 24 hours, but at the same time, it's been kind of like the calm before the storm. And we first alerted on this around a month ago, I would say, when we started to see real defensive action coming into the markets. Obviously, big tech really falling off, particularly the Mags versus Spy, Mags versus IWM codes, and all of those are leading into kind of this problem where, yeah, there's no risk, it seems like, in the bonds, but often that's when you need to be a little bit cautious. Obviously, Warren Buffett's kind of quote comes in, you got to be a little bit fearful when others are greedy, and we've seen plenty of greed out there.
But this is a market that just, you don't see every day. It's a market that is made up of stock selection, sector selection. If you've been in energy the last month, not too bad. If you've been in materials, pretty good. If you've been in other sectors that aren't necessarily technology and maybe financials and those types of areas, actually, the market's been pretty nice. And this is what we call a broadening market, but at the same time, a stock picker's or sector selection style market. And it means that the index is no longer, as we've been talking about here on the channel for about three to six months, the air, the easiest kind of setup. In fact, it's kind of like the scary setup because in some ways the index is showing that sectors that are only worth maybe two to 5% of the weighting in the index are actually the ones that have all the gains in them.
Now, why do we need to be paying attention? Well, according to the market stats here, you can see that the S&P 500 technology sector is falling off a cliff. And for any technical analysts out there, you guys would notice that we've actually closed below one of these very important support lines. At the same time, we're also seeing percentage of stocks with RSI under 30. That is quite a lot of overselling or selling generally has now spiked up. And it's been a long time since we've had that. Really, the last time we had it was during that uh liberation day kind of crash in the markets. So, it's been a little while. And this doesn't necessarily mean a bottom, but it is something we look at. Another thing that's happened is the S&P 500 has had at least 10% of stocks at their 52-week highs. So again, a very disjointed market, while 5% of the stocks were actually at 52-week lows. And interestingly, when you actually pull this stat up, you'll notice that it starts to appear during not really significant huge pullbacks, but it does actually pull up usually where there is something about to come back into the market. And at least in terms of the limited data stats that we have here, again, that two months comes in, which is, you know, kind of like a Q1 style pullback, which could be just like a concern over growth, concern over anything else. We've also seen software, of course, come under a huge focus as AI kind of starts to affect some of these software companies, and now people are betting big time on calls. Take a look here at Subu Trade's latest call data for IGV. Yeah, that's a lot of people trying to buy the dip on this one. It hasn't even found a bid yet, but everyone's trying to buy the dip. And at the same time, Staples has been going up, yet everyone's trying to buy puts on it. So, it just goes to show again, when it is the common consensus of a trade, maybe that's not the best thing to be in. Now, we did just see a massive darkpool on IGV. So, this will be an interesting level to watch. Now, in terms of market structure, this is a freight train, so of course we have to look for structure at this point. But that is the seventh largest darkpool trade in a very, very long time. So that's a monster coming through at those levels.
We also can look at valuations. And I guess the question is, is this market overpriced? A lot of you guys in the comment section tell me every day, yes, it is. But if we have a look here, it's kind of like right on that that trajectory. And while 22 times earnings is not exactly cheap for anything in particular, I guess it really just depends whether Wall Street continues to see the future look bright for these, of course, companies. And we'll look at the Amazon and Google earnings in just a moment.
Now, Bitcoin is down big time. And of course, once it dropped 86,000, it moved to 76, and then now it's moved underneath even the 86 kind of 87 level that I was talking about and actually got into the 82. So, we're in that demand zone now for a very interesting um potential bid here. But basically, it's been declining huge amounts per day as it lost some of those key levels. And you can see here that when it's done this in the past, at least according to the stats here from Blue Curtic, it's generally been kind of more on the bounce side. That doesn't mean it has to. Again, it's just a data stat, but we can bring this together with some structure potentially uh over the next coming days. And we also know that Bitcoin has fallen below its 30 RSI, which effectively here, it means that it's kind of like significantly oversold. And that can be where you get closer to that structural bottom. So, Bitcoin coming under a lot of pressure. And I guess in our last video, we talked about this. It looks like there's a lot of pressure being put on MSTR, and I feel like that's what the street's doing.
So, onto earnings. Have the earnings been good? I would say they've been good, not great. And the market is obviously saying, you know, we're a bit concerned about the future. Take, take a look here at the capital expenditures of the businesses in terms of AI. Look at this. Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon. They're expected to be such a huge component of the US GDP in terms of actual overall growth that they better do what they're saying, otherwise we're in trouble. But this is a big component here of what really is going on. The US economy is really an AI economy at this point, and it's going to be really on these companies to live up to expectations. So, I'd be interested to know, do you guys think AI is kind of already in reiteration for now? Have we hit a bottleneck? Really interested to see your comments. We got a lot of software engineers out there. A lot of guys in the tech area, engineers in general in this community. So, let me know your comments down below. I'd like to highlight some of them, and I will be reading them as well. So, we can um, we can see if we get any insights from the great community we have here.
In terms of Amazon earnings, yeah, it was okay. Of course, the market didn't care. They just went, you know, we're going to sell that down. And this again comes in line with what we've been discussing. The American consumer may be weakening a little bit, at least in forward guidance. And even our favorite stock for the last year, which has been Google, uh, even it wasn't suscept, well, it was susceptible to even some selling, and um, it had a pretty damn good revenue. I mean, you got to look at this and say, damn, that was pretty good. 18 cent beat on EPS, and of course, in general, it was just pretty good across the board. So, interesting times for that.
Now, you might say, is silver over? Well, this great chart here from Nautilus, which I shared many videos, basically said that usually what happens is silver dumps like this. It often does recover. It often does resell. And unfortunately, in many cases, it actually sits for ages after such an event. Now, sometimes it will become volatile, then move off into the direction, but these, I know these are very hard to see, but basically the generalized structure kind of looks like this. And actually, it tends to go into a holding pattern. Now, I'm not saying it has to do that. Of course, we only have limited data here, but it does seem to be kind of the way that silver is acting for now, and we we must be watching the structure very closely now that we've taken and swept a low.
The S&P 500 energy sector though has been a lot stronger, and this is where we're talking about this rotation. We've been discussing this now in terms of technical levels and potential for quite a few days, in fact, weeks and months. And we've seen oil services, energy, and other sectors going. And I think that's really important to always note whenever you're looking at charts. There's always another opportunity.
Let's now take a look at Qs. You can see here, very important level coming up for the NASDAQ. Basically, somewhere around this 600 to 590 area is a massive support on the markets. And the big problem I think a lot of people are going to come up with is it's not so much that we've gone, you know, advanced decline off a cliff. It's that we're starting to see that cons, that potential for a distribution pattern. And when you load up a couple of important stocks, things like Palantir that have been leaders, I mean, you guys are going to see that as a head and shoulders. You know, we talked about this actually post earnings once it dropped through. You'll see also stocks of 2025 that were doing very well drop through. You've even got the likes of ABGO dropping through. Looks like a head and shoulders, you know what I mean? So, these types of charts are all starting to weaken. And and we've, this will come as no surprise to any of you guys because we've talked about Magnificent 7 a lot, but look at that level that we find ourselves on now. Right on the support, the demand area. It kind of has to bid here. Generally speaking, I guess you'd expect it to bid here, but, you know, it's it's one of those key levels we must watch, guys. And of course, you're looking for the market to do so.
Now, US 500's come down to what I think is a fairly important support in terms of options high and lows. Here are the updates. But what I'll do is I'll show you here the puts. So, you guys love looking at the puts. So, have a look here. We've actually dropped into 67s. And just so you know, on the sixth, it turns out that there's a lot of puts at 6750. There are also tons of puts all over that 6,900 down. And we've seen this kind of story play out before. Sometimes puts act as a put wall, and the market will bounce up. We're now on a support on technicals, and we're also on, I guess you would say, a support in terms of the the uh current um puts out there. But we are in negative gamma. So if the markets keep free falling, they keep fall through this point, there's going to need to be hedging, and that of course can get pretty brutal pretty quickly.
Onto silver for a second. We probably dropped into this level post market. 65 on SLV seems to be a bit of a level around this 65-68. There seems to be a lot of puts. So again, we might have dropped into levels where it becomes more advantageous to see bit a little bit of bids off this level. And then I, I think it's very interesting, and we also have some cross synergy with Nvidia obviously hitting 170. So that double bottom we talked about, um, obviously kind of sat for ages, and now it's kind of given up. So, we'll talk about that in a moment, but 170, a very critical put level here on the charts. Tesla, meanwhile, 400, 400, 400, just underneath it. This is a super important put level. It's everywhere. Doesn't matter which expiration we look at. And then, of course, we've got iBid as well for uh Bitcoin, which has dropped into, dropped underneath 40, of course, and now it's gone to this 35, which seems to be getting struck. But, I want to get another update on this over the next 24 hours. I'll give that to you guys over the weekend. And um, of course, sub for that, because this is going to be a fairly important put level, because we are in the pure demand zone, really, of of this next range for Bitcoin, and it has been pretty brutal. Once it dropped 86, unfortunately, it kept dropping.
Let's have a look here at the American consumer, consumer discretionary versus staples. You can see he's kind of dropped off here, and this is kind of causing uh quite a lot of concern, I guess, in the investment community, because are are we turning extremely uh defensive? Now, you guys know it's been a stock selection market. So, you can see here, staples versus tech has actually gone up huge. So, this is a defensive move by the markets. We first saw it a little while ago. Chinese markets are down a little bit, but nothing like, you know, the rest in terms of they still actually are technically bullish across the board. We obviously got a weekly breakout just a little while ago. So, the world markets look a little bit different to, I guess, the American market at this stage.
And in terms of bond spreads, they've widened up. They've started to get a little bit freaked out, but we're just not seeing that that freak out in corporate bonds. Like LQD here, no freak out. High yield junk, not really a freakout. So, it doesn't seem to be systemic just yet. It seems to be just like, you know, sitting on very important levels, but no bonds kind of coming with it.
If we have a look at the dollar, you guys can see here the trend line is holding. So, that's pretty important. And of course, if we break through this 100 level, this 100 barrier, then um, we'll be of course looking at it uh very closely, because this is a super key zone. And I think, I think when you break up here, you're kind of saying, okay, dollar is looking strong. You break below, you're losing a trend line that's been in place since the global financial crisis. So, these will be some important points to watch.
US 10-year did drop quite drastically after all of this news has come out and everything's come out. So, that's an interesting one to watch. And we can see the 2-year also dropped down to support. So, this is going to put some pressure on the dollar, and actually the dollar rose, so it's showing some safe haven demand. So, interesting times here for yields. We'll have to watch that one very, very closely.
Energy stocks still doing pretty well. You can see again, stock selection has been kind of the big pick there. And and oil barrels, we'll just go back to that for a second. I'll show you guys barrels. So, you can see here barrels are still holding um, kind of at that key breakout zone. So, again, not all markets are equal.
Let's have a look at gold. Rallied up, dropped, didn't make a new lower low. So, there's a big support between 44 and 43. Remember, gold is the OG currency. Silver is both useful and a currency. So, it cops a lot more of um, these wild demands. I've likened it before to Bitcoin versus Ethereum. Silver's like Ethereum in terms of its crazy. And Bitcoin is obviously more like gold, but even then, Bitcoin's looking a little crazy right now. We'll look at that in a moment.
Silver has bounced um, back to try to support this area of 71. It did drop into the support here of 65. So, I mean, there are minor supports along this line. I ran a couple of volume profiles. I put in, if you, if you have to go back to the start here of the video, I put in a couple of different um, VWAPs and stuff, and what I found was, yeah, there's some synergy here with this 65. I can see why it might bounce, but this is definitely not enough structure yet. So, to stop a freight train usually takes structure. That's kind of what we're seeing at this point.
Uh, PayPal, all these other stocks that have come out with earnings, you guys can see here they've dropped through the floor. We'll have a quick look here at Amazon. It was down 4.42% and then dropped probably below this, I guess, after hours. Um, it was down quite a lot after hours. So, it might be dropping supports. And really, again, I would go back to that Mags. And as we first identified this weakness in tech, we used Mags to Spy, which closed below back early in Jan, which really told us tech was, tech was not as good anymore. Doesn't mean it's over, but, you know, you can see the criticalness of this level, guys. It's um, pretty clear to see. Plus, of course, the Qs at their zones. Semiconductors also have dropped recently. They're kind of at that first little level of minor support. And you also should be looking at semis by themselves. And you can see again, first little level of minor support. So, you know, where's the next level? Possibly 337, 360. You know, there's a little bit on the way down, but I'd be watching those Mags. That level seems to be quite important, I think, to this market.
Now, when it comes to Bitcoin, it was fall through 76 and then liquidate to at least my opinion. I thought there was pretty big support around 67 on the charts. And um, what I did was I highlighted here because I like to box things, because I think that's the best way to think about stuff. You box zones that you like. So, I think between here and here, um, was kind of the level that I was um, looking at, and we got a liquidation of, of course, this zone. We talked about the continuation, and obviously some people will take it like this as a flag pattern. So, I guess you would say the flag has completed to the downside, and we're now seeing some action around this area. So, there is a little bit of bid coming in in post-market hours. It's a pretty, pretty notoriously um, dangerous kind of zone because, well, it's not really dangerous when I guess you think about it, because at least it's completion, but when you guess that bottoms are in, that that can be quite tough. But I think it does show liquidation. And I do have a chart, and I didn't put it in today's video, but basically there is a ton of liquidation down here. And I'm wondering whether this whole crash on Bitcoin has to push out some MSTR, because at this stage, you know, you look at that shock stock. I'll show you guys this one. Look at this thing. Ooh, it's um, never really liked this as, you know, but uh, it's uh, interesting. It's definitely at that pressure point, isn't it? Where you've got kind of that previous low back over here.
So, a lot of stuff's going on, guys. It is a broad market um, right now. And what has happened is it's become asset selection that's the most important. So, hopefully, if you've been watching the videos and um, we've been, you know, of course, talking about this together, some of the leads have already shown us that this market is not all things equal. But for now, we're still not seeing systemic selling in bonds, which kind of makes it look like more of an earnings or future growth concern. And um, then of course, Bitcoin and and silver and gold and precious metals are kind of like a um, manipulation bust potentially. And that's all the types of things that we're doing. We got many different markets here. Don't worry, we cover them all. We'll come at you with a very special weekend video. I really appreciate your support, guys. Thank you so much for liking the videos, um, subbing, sharing them, everything like that. uh, means the world to me. So, thank you so much. And it was, you know, this is a wild time. So, you guys are living history right now. There's no doubt. And I hope you've learned some stuff in terms of these flow movements. But, yeah, next 24 hours pretty important. Quite a lot of correlation here with some key levels, as we saw with the options. Let's see how it goes. Bye for now. I'll see you in the next.