Apple Is Trying to Kill OpenAI Right Before Its IPO

Good morning everybody. Welcome to another episode of the Tom Billy Show live. Boy oh boy, it was certainly an eventful weekend. If you guys were online, Lindsey Graham died suddenly after visiting Ukraine. And the internet is ablaze with conspiracies. I have never seen conspiracies come in so many flavors. We're going to be diving into them all. But no matter which flavor you want, there's one for you.

US strikes over the last couple of days are the most intense certainly since theou and I think rival even the beginning of the war. The US and Canada are on the verge of a trade war which is bizarre but nonetheless where we're at. Oil is not moving how it should given the conflict in Iran. We're going to break down why Apple is going ham suing OpenAI over industrial scale IP theft. Palmer Lucky of Androl has created a low-cost cruise missile that can be mass-produced by car companies. Uh if you guys know anything about World War II history, you will understand what that means. And a hot young woman gets a nuclear scientist to divulge classified secrets on hidden camera. That is never going to cease to amuse me, even when it is something that insane. Man, the human mind works in fascinating ways, boys and girls.

But speaking of biology, Senator Lindsey Graham is dead at 71. He was pronounced dead at George Washington University Hospital uh late Saturday night after what his office called, and I quote, a brief and sudden illness. The DC medical examiner performed an autopsy Sunday. It released the preliminary findings which is aortic dissection due to arterioclerotic. Yes, I think I got that right. Cardiovascular disease. Uh basically I'm going to chalk this up to bad diet. So all the people that are saying like this is 18 variations of conspiracy theory. And I will admit the timing is pretty insane. Uh given that you had him in uh Ukraine in a weapons facility, ends up getting struck supposedly. I don't think that's been confirmed yet, but supposedly once he leaves, boom, the Russians hit that. Then he goes home, click, dead, like right after he gets back. And this is right on the heels of Iran making him one of like a small handful of people. So they had Trump, uh, Lindsey Graham, um, Ben Shapiro, Laura Loomer, I think. So like a really small handful of people. And so first one goes down. Somebody released an AI uh, video that's been linked in terms of the style has been linked to some IRGC propaganda videos where it's shown in a Lego format. So this Lego video supposedly released by Iran taking claim for uh the assassination of Lindsey Graham. But again to me anybody looking at that man he was not living a healthy lifestyle. And so uh my initial thinking was yeah it you when you get hardening of the arteries that will kill you lickety split. Like if you get a tear in the right part of your vascular system you're just going to bleed out. So, this one doesn't seem super shocking to me, but it really the number of different conspiracies that are coming out are crazy.

So, you've got people in the Russian camp. So, clearly Russians took him out because he's uh putting all the support behind Ukraine, we had to get him. Then you've got the Iranian camp. I mean, they're just straight saying or the propaganda video. I don't know if it actually came from them, but they were super eager to take credit for it because he was on their hit list. Then you've even got a Z the Jews one coming out where people are saying, "Yo, we've got to like let Trump know that you're next, man. If you're trying to back off of this war in Iran, we've got to just let you know, don't do that." So, I could not believe that even the MSAD is catching strays on this one. Uh, so it's really a question of what flavor do you want? Do you want to just take a straight look, he's 71, he had a terrible diet, like the odds were not in this man's favor. That's there for you. You've got the uh Putin's out to get you with the number of people that he's poisoned and killed in the sudden illness camp vain. Um, you've got I mean Msad is always going to show up because we're in a super weird time right now with all of that. Uh but whatever camp you're in, man, you've got a champion for your uh conspiracy theory. It is wild. But I would say strap on your tinfoil hat if you are going into that territory right now. I think the play is assume for now that eating a bad diet is going to come for us all. If you want to know who's got your number, uh it is the grim reaper if you're not eating the right things.

But it the timing is pretty crazy, especially now this is also going to get politically weird because you've got weekend of Bernie's happening over in the m uh Mitch McConnell camp and now you've got Lindsay going down. Is Lindsay going to have a special election? Does anybody know? Is that going to trigger? Um because we're so close to the primary and everything like that, somebody else can then run for their seat to then get on the ballot for the next.

>> So there won't be a special election. We got close enough.

>> Yeah, close enough. You missed it.

>> He held on just long enough.

>> The house is on times in the Senate. Yeah.

>> So yeah, that that is certainly utterly fascinating.

Now the thing that I found the biggest um sort of jarring thing was the mainstream media is not I haven't seen maybe it's just my algorithm, but I have not seen a single commentary on the conspiracy theory of it all from the mainstream media. But on the other side, I haven't even heard anybody credibly say, "Guys, come on." Like, this kind of death happens all the time from people that are not healthy. If he was 45 and, you know, 10% body fat, I'd be like, "Yeah, Russia got him or whatever." Uh, but he's 71, he clearly obese. I very much doubt this is a man who's out there getting all the exercise that he needs. So, um, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. You've got the medical examiner already saying, "Look, he just had a tear in one of his um blood vessels and it's game over."

>> Um, I like the conspiracy theory of it all. So, I'm going to lean into that.

>> You like it or you actually think it's true.

>> I like it. I'm going to be honest with you. Um, Lindsay had to go. Um, I am okay with um his passing. I'm not okay with anybody dying. I'm not rooting for it. I didn't except for Lindsy Graham.

>> I don't hope that any foreign actors had a like participation into it. But this tweet from we the Brandon really kind of got my wheel spinning. So I'm gonna read it out. See how it goes. I'm convinced Lindsey Graham was killed in Ukraine by a Russian air strike on a drone facility.

>> Like he died on the scene.

>> Sh died on the scene.

>> Okay.

>> Trump is covering it up as to prevent himself from being in a position where he'll need to escalate but cannot because he's blown through all of the critical stock piles in his stupidest mis midw mid east war fiasco. I can read the rest but the rest is just like slander at this point.

Hypothetically speaking, if Lindsey Graham was killed on foreign ground from a foreign power, whether it was Putin, whether it is Iran via Putin, whatever it might have be, that is a declaration of war. We are now seeing in the Straighter Hamoose, this isn't the America of World War I where we have assembly lines and the women on workforce lining up in aprons making bombs. It's a different America. Do you think that there is, if this is true, disclaimer, disclaimer, all that stuff,

>> do you think that there is there is some validity in that? Like, wait a second, I don't know if I can handle two wars when we're barely leading one and Russia has a way more uh is way more apt to just kind of going nuclear literally. Um, is this something that Trump would even like consider? Would the cover story of he died in his house actually be something to save the republic in the grand scheme of things?

Okay. So, just adopting for a second that this actually happened, which for the record is not my belief, but if this were to be somebody that actually was killed by a foreign government,

>> um in this exact moment,

>> my advice to them would be certainly to buy time because you don't want to go in and have to start escalating things directly with Russia. What you would do is just behind the scenes without like making a big deal of it, you start putting more energy and effort into um Ukraine. You make sure that they're getting the weapons that they need. You work with places like Andrew. We're going to be covering their story later. It's absolutely brilliant. Palmer Lucky is incredible. Um in fact, we should probably do a real beat when we get to that about American ingenuity, the thing that has made us the greatest ever in times of need. We've really leaned on necessity is the mother of invention and we've been able to really turn over very rapidly and I see him Elon Musk building the kind of technology that we would need. The fact that um Lucky Palmer had the foresight to say these need to be missiles that are that we can build in an auto factory. So now you've got somebody who's looking at what are the resources that America has now. What could we do that would be great for the economy would bring manufacturing back. back. I know I could get President Trump behind this and would allow us to take on our adversaries. Um, there's something very, very interesting there. So, I would tell my advice to the government would be look, don't distract the public. Just keep pushing that one quietly behind the scenes so that we're not having to go in to save face and, you know, do some big thing. So, if they were going to try to cover it up, I I would say it's good strategy. Even if it's one of those where it's another example of how your government lies to you. Like it it that's just so far gone. Nothing you hear is real. Nothing is true. And it really does come down to how do you get the outcome that you need. So, from that perspective, that wouldn't shock me at all. That would be good strategy. uh you can push that one along as much as you have the tooling to do it, but you may need to buy yourself 6 months or even a year before you'd realistically be ready. You need to see how things are playing out in Iran. if you get some stability there, if you and Europe all acting together, but more quietly behind the scenes can continue to weaken Russia because it really does look and look, I know I'm subject to so much propaganda, it's hard to know what's really real, but it really does seem that they're having a massive impact on the um energy infrastructure of Russia. If they can do that and just make the war that much more unpopular, that one may fizzle out on its own where it just becomes untenable for uh Putin. But if you get bombastic, because my big fear in Russia is you back Put Putin into a corner where he does not have a good off-ramp. And so he escalates and this becomes nuclear. And so Putin certainly makes my radar as somebody who if they felt like the barbarians were at the gates and really truly like America's like, "Fuck you. We're bombing. We're going crazy." That he's going to escalate. So I don't like that one. Uh, as much as I despise the fact that the government lies to us all the time, I would much rather that than find ourselves in nuclear war. So, yeah, that to me, you need to buy yourself time. You need to find an off-ramp for Putin. And if that means having to sort of obfuscate that direct attack to buy yourself some time, that makes sense to me. Um, period.

Now, one thing that I want to bring up that I was thinking a lot about this weekend is we're killing the [ __ ] out of Iran's leadership and we're just like, "Yeah, [ __ ] him." And we go in, we strike and we're like, "Yeah, yeah, yeah, we killed him." Uh Trump in his first term was it I forget who he hit. Big Daddy, one of them. And was just like, "Yeah, we did it. No apologies. If you [ __ ] with us, like, you're going to find out." And so it really, if you live by the sword, you die by the sword. And so, while I'll always root for America, even if I think America is making dumb decisions, like, you've got to protect your own country. And so, I'm never going to be like, "Well, we did it to them, so we should expect it to be done to us." No. Like, we did a thing. You didn't back down. If you escalate, we're going to escalate again. And so, that's where all of this leads. And I will expect us to win. Uh, even if everybody can agree, we just shouldn't have got into it in the first place. So on that side though, if you live by the sword, you die by the sword. And so nobody should be surprised if this were real. Again, I don't think it is. But the fact that these guys are going to increasingly try to take out Trump, we've done it to them. It's obviously a strategy that's very high risk in terms of you don't know what America looks like on the back of if we know like let's say that Iran takes him out and like let's really do the big one. Uh, he's on the Qatari jet, Air Force One. So, they gift us a plane. For people that don't know, they gift us a plane. It's like $400 million. Trump's just beyond himself. Super excited, gold-plated. This is all real. So, he takes the plane, even though everyone's like, "What the [ __ ] are you doing?"

>> Takes the plane, flies it to Turkey, and everything pops back off in Iran. Everyone's like, "Uh, hold on, Trump. This is crazy. What are you doing? You cannot fly back on that plane. uh you need to go back to the old Air Force One. Run a scenario where he's fly he refuses. He didn't. He actually goes back to the old one. Thank God. But let's say that he had gotten on the um new one and lo and behold, we find that it either doesn't have the defenses that it needs or that it had a weakness that Iran could exploit and they end up crashing the plane or striking the plane or whatever and just claim it and say, "We did it. We did it like this. [ __ ] you guys. we're coming for you. Like, we can touch you in ways you don't understand. We've got fools in Cuba. We've got sleeper cells in the US, which by the way is almost all certainly true. And so, if that had happened,

>> Iran should not be surprised if that ignites the base. Let's say JD Vance comes in, but now it's an angry JD Vance who's like, "We can't have somebody attack our country, and now we've got the cover that we need politically to go absolutely ballistic and start just completely dismantling Iran." So, this is a a fafo that I think we've encountered in Iran where it's like, yes, you've He's so proud. Trump is so proud. If I've taken out two layers of leadership, maybe I'm about to take out the third. And it's like, well, are they getting friendlier? Are they getting like better at diplomacy? No, we're going in the exact opposite direction. So you're getting more and more hardliners and I would not be surprised to see the same thing happen in the US. So it's like man all of this stuff is ill advised. This is why truly and I I absolutely mourn for our man Ryan over here who growing up as a Jenzer does not understand what global peace uh really looked like in the West. Obviously, there's always going to be problem areas, but it it was an unprecedented period of peace post World War II until really the early 2000s when we start having economic woes. But like, man, that stretch was just unbelievable. It's the period where China pulls 800 million people out of poverty. Uh untold global prosperity. I mean, just the the wealth of nations going up up up. I get it's not distributed in the way people want and all that. We can talk about that. But that period where you had essentially a hegemon certainly once the cold war ended, it was you you can hate America all you want, but globally it was awesome. And at least for this period, and maybe it's very brief, but for this period, that is not what we have. And we have escalating tensions. We've got the US and Canada on the verge of a trade war. For the love of God, you've got Canada embracing China. You've got China now saying, "Hey, we're going beyond the China Sea. We're going into the Pacific and so obviously they're targeting Taiwan. Like Jesus man, there's just so much instability and you're going to see the instability get worse if we really do have let's say China starts really asserting itself. You've got the US is certainly not going to back down. If Iran is able to come out of this as a hegemon in the Middle East, yikes. like that becomes a very unstable, very violent, very economically turbulent world that is not going to be fun. And as technology gets better and better, um, could you see things start showing up in Cuba, weaponry that can hit the US, and now the US feels like we've got to go hit Cuba. Dude, it's like all of this can end very, very badly. So, this is one of those where I just kept thinking to myself over the weekend, man, you live by the sword, you die by the sword. Again, that's not me saying that America should back down. It's too late for that. But that is me saying, yo, like Fafo is a multidirectional thing because none of this stuff is ever going to go smoothly the way that you want. There are always going to be unintended consequences. Those could be 911. Those could be, again, that's not me saying America deserve 911. That's just me saying that [ __ ] happens.

>> And so if you give people enough reason to hate you, hate you they will. especially if they've already just come in with some either religiously animated beef or because they've got cultural and religious beef with Israel and we're the best of partners with Israel like whatever. But like those things have knock-on effects and we're now dealing with those because America has weakened itself so much uh over the years. So this one is um on the back of your question and my theoretical answer I cannot help but come back to this is not this is not necessarily avoidable all the conflict because of just the dynamics globally but it shouldn't be coveted and so when I hear people coveting and getting like all their blood pumping that's where I'm like oh man I don't think people are being realistic about how badly things break when this happens. Uh we've had world wars before. They are devastating economically life. I mean it's just unbelievable. And they'll wage for years, man. So that's not a position we want to find ourselves in. And we're getting dangerously close to it.

>> Yeah. Uh comment of the day, uh candidate known as Dan Smith said, "When someone at the average lifespan age dies at the average lifespan age conspiracy." So, it is like, yes, a a well-kept old person died of overeating who frequent McDonald's with his uh coworker. I feel like that's not a if that was a regular headline in Arkansas somewhere, we'd be like, "Yeah, that makes sense." But because it's a

>> I I'd be like, "Uh, hey, guy dies at 71. Um, Tom, you have to tell me uh is this nefarious?" The first thing I'm going to ask is, uh, is he obese? And if he's obese, what the medical reports say, oh, heart disease or um circulatory disease. Yeah, look, this the unfortunately the most dangerous thing that people do every day is eat bad food. And it look, it takes a long time to stack up, but stack up it does. So, this one to me is not weird. I think in the fullness of time, we're going to realize that this was just a guy with a bad diet and bad exercise habits, and it is what it is. Um, and so I expect all the conspiratorial stuff to mostly die down and sort of get pushed back to the corners, but this one was fast. Like the the number of conspiracies, that was the one that got me. And in fact, if I can just address everybody out there

>> when you have like a really easy answer to something. Remember, I do this to myself all the time when it comes to the DSA and Mom Donnie because it is so emotionally satisfying for me. So, I know I'm at my most at risk there. If you're like if you just think the Jews are responsible for everything and a guy dies of heart disease and your immediate thing is the MSAD got him to send a warning to uh Trump, but then everybody else if they're like a Russia hawk, they're like Russia did it. Um that's when and obviously if you're an Iran hawk and you think Iran did it, that's where you got to be like, "All right, like we should probably pump the brakes here. Let's let the facts come out." Uh and then go from there. It's just we're getting into a place where everybody has their narrative and every data point fits that narrative and nobody's like, "What's the disconfirming evidence?"

>> Um, well, keeping the conspiracy train going, uh, Mitch McConnell released a statement. I'm not going to read it. I don't think it was real. Um,

>> speaking of, man, speaking of, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. I got to see it cuz I haven't seen this. What's it say?

>> The statement is it's like four paragraphs.

>> Oh, damn. Okay, we're not going to read the whole thing, but this is supposedly from him.

>> Good luck with that.

>> This is from Mitch supposedly.

>> Supposedly, yeah.

>> Um elected. Um I'm doing okay. Uh I me in the lane of appreciate the well wishes.

>> And wasn't it something like I slipped and fell and that's why I went to the hospital? That was the one thing I said.

>> My doctors have confirmed that I didn't break any bones or suffer a concussion. I didn't have a heart attack or stroke. I don't have any uh tumors or hemorrhages, but I was briefly unconscious. was taken to the hospital while receiving excellent care over the past few weeks. Had to deal with a mild case of pneumonia.

>> All right, we're going to see. We're going to see.

>> People are calling it out cuz it seems like he's sitting there upright holding a newspaper. Um and then they said, "Hey, let's look at the newspaper he's reading." And that's a lot of wise for a Yankee hat. Um

>> Oh. Oh, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. Is that real?

>> Yeah, this is It was zoomed in and then there's a couple people under it on Wait, wait, wait. Go click on the the full photo right there and then zoom in on that.

>> It's pixelated. We're not going to see that.

>> Okay, so

>> but even even from here I can see that the NY logo looks janky.

>> Yeah. Oh man. Okay,

>> we have a Resident Evil fan in the in the you know

>> Hold on. Okay, let me I'm just going to die tribe for a second.

>> And then last some people like Grocked it. Is this image? Grock said yes.

>> When people zoomed in on it, you can still kind of see the

>> Grock said it's AI or it's real.

>> Grock said it was AI.

>> Interesting.

>> Yes, it's AI. But okay, we'll see. So here it as a PSA to all the people out there that would like to bamboozle the public with fake AI imagery. Will you please do me a favor? Take your image, break it into quadrants like or or many many small boxes and go look box by box by box. Tick them off as you have looked at them to see if there are weird artifacts because that is going to be done by the sleuth on the internet. And the fact that people do not do this is so crazy to me. AI will leave the weirdest [ __ ] artifacts that can be cleaned up in Photoshop. You guys don't have to live like this. Your AI is better than that, man. It's like people trying to do this stuff way too fast. I do not understand. Go in and clean up your [ __ ] images. Like, if you're going to lie, lie all the way. Like, don't do this half-ass weak [ __ ]. That's why I'm like, wait, did somebody do is that the photo like that actually came from his account? That's where this is just like, do I really have to be mad on top of the fact that you're lying that you lie poorly? Like, that's where this gets really obnoxious. It is as if people do not understand the weaknesses of AI. I don't get it. That's so crazy. By the way, if somebody's doing well, they'll send you a video. If they're secretly doing poorly, they're going to send you a photo. Just to be very real with you, it's pretty easy to walk in, have one of his aids walk in, and be like, "Senator, listen. Um or Congress. Is he Senator or Congress?

>> Uh Congress.

>> Senate. It says right there, Senate floor. Uh we're going to get back on the floor.

>> Oh, Senator. Yeah. Yeah.

>> So, uh you've got a senator. Um you're important to the public. So, hey Mitch, real fast. I'm just going to record a video. Say the date. Say what's up. Just let people know you're good. That's it. Doesn't have to be anything fancy. And then you release it. So, the fact that they don't do that, like you're just you're making it possible for people to run with the narrative. It's how I felt like. Do you remember that long weekend where everybody thought Trump had died and they were like trying to hide it?

>> Yeah.

>> And look, I'm sure he's busy and all that, but I was just like, bro, put out a quick video. Yes. People are going to say that it's AI, blah, blah, blah, just like they did with Netanyahu, but at least like you give anchored people some something to go off of.

>> Yeah. But

>> and and that's the thing we do have to disclaimer because everybody swore um Netanyahu was dead and it was the four fingers on the coffee and all these other things. So it's one of those

>> it sounds good. It feels like there's something there. It is mysterious how he's not having a video. He's not releasing a statement. Other people aren't commenting.

>> I just have a feeling he was legitimately doing poorly

>> and he's in such frail health that they didn't want to show that he was really struggling. Thankfully, he got back on his feet, but it's I get why people want to know what the condition of their elected officials are. So, yeah, I don't know. time to, you know, do age limits on Senate, you know,

>> and term limits for the love of God.

>> 80-year-old judges, 70-year-old uh politicians, they're dropping like flies. Maybe this is a signing.

>> Also, man, I hate to say this. Oh god, am I really going to say this out loud? Sure. Um, when it comes to interviewing guests, if somebody suggests somebody to me that's old, I go watch how well they speak because while it doesn't guarantee that you're no longer sharp, the odds are that you're no longer sharp. And so, it's just like the fact that we let people rock that long is so crazy. Now, look, demographics are destiny. I get it. We have a ton of boomers that have just been able to keep these guys going forever in terms of getting reelected. That's pretty wild. I I would advise all people, young and old, um it's about sharpness. It isn't about age,

>> but age is a flag where you need to be like, is this person still sharp?

>> Yeah.

>> Uh and yeah, so again, man, age comes for us all. Nobody knows that better than me. But boy oh boy do we have to be honest about the fact that age comes for us all.

>> Yep. All right. While we're talking about international conspiracy theories and foreign actors, let's actually go to the war that we're fighting. Oh, I'm sorry. It's not a war. It was a conflict. A misunderstanding. I forgot what he the last thing.

>> You can't call it a war 486 times and then be like, "No, psych. Just kidding." But

>> yeah. Yeah. What? Whatever he called it. Um in Iran

>> over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over.

>> Epic fury.

>> Epic fury. Yeah. Operation Epic Fury.

>> Let's get to Epic Fury. Um, so round three is complete. A new round of targets, a new round of bombings. Set it up for his time.

>> All right. Well, Trump has stopped talking about bombing Iran back into the Stone Age, and now he's just doing it. Saturday night, US Central Command hit roughly 140 Iranian military targets in a single round of strikes. This is the largest since the June ceasefire was signed. Trump also put out a true social saying that he has a thousand more missiles locked and loaded should Iran attempt to assassinate him again. Whether they do it or not, he's ready to fight. So far, the US has hit missile sites, drone launch facilities, naval assets, ammunition storage, communication networks, coastal surveillance, all of it obviously trying to wrestle control away from them. As far as the straight goes, so far it's still being done from the air. They're hitting everything with precise munitions launched from like fighter jets, drones, warships. This is good news. This is exactly what we should want them to do. We certainly do not want to see troops on the ground. But also remember, Iran is not dumb. They have been planning for this kind of retaliation for a long time. They have buried things very deep. They have these tunnels that we are going to have to find some way to get inside to destroy the tunnels again ideally without actually boots on the ground. So what's going to be that next level of innovation? I'm sure there's somebody that has been pointing out for decades that the bunker buster bombs have a weakness that can be fixed in XYZ way. And so it's about actually having the um impetus to go in and actually make those things but never underestimate engineers and what they are capable of doing. I mean, we've we saw with the strike on Fort that they could drop bombs into like ventilation shafts to get way deeper in. And so, this will be a constant cat and mouse game as uh Iran and other adversaries find ways to bury things deeper and deeper, finding ways to um get around that. I have no idea what that's going to be, but I would not bet against people finding a way to solve that problem. So we are absolutely going to have to do that as this sort of latest round of um military buildouts with these countries that understand that they have an asymmetric disadvantage against the US uh in terms of air superiority and so they've just gone down. They know what the weapons are that we have. They know how far they can penetrate and so they try to get the majority of them deep enough that they can't be hit. And so that's going to have to be something that we end up cracking. It's going to need to be conventional. Obviously, dropping nukes uh might solve the problem, but it creates one that is much much much bigger, more devastating, more terrifying, more globally uh destructive. Obviously, we should not be going down that path, but you can expect them to try to find some way uh to get in there and deal with that. So, um, yeah, we'll see how this ends up playing out. The US has now struck more than 300 targets across the week. The heaviest sustained bombing since the war supposedly ended back with theou, but I think we all knew that was never going to last. I didn't hear anybody saying, "Yeah, this is actually going to get across the finish line." If you read theou, it was ridiculous. It was the most vague mealymouth [ __ ] ever. Uh I was shocked that the markets were actually like, "Yeah, this is cool." I was just like, "This is not going to go anywhere. This is obviously going to fall apart. Remember, uh, everybody should build a mental map of Iran for themselves. My mental map goes like this. Every diplomat that has ever interfaced with them, not just in the US, but all of the Western diplomats that have interfaced with them have said the same thing. These guys are extraordinarily good at negotiating because what they do is they buy themselves time. They say they're going to do one thing, then they do another, then they're like, "Oh my god, so sorry. I can't believe that happened. No, that wasn't what we meant to do." And so that's precisely what Trump is saying because the latest round of these attacks he says is because the IRGC attacked the GFS galaxy, a Cypress flag container ship that was transiting the straight of Hormuz. This is like the playbook over and over and over. Trump said, "We literally walked out of negotiations where Iran told us we were going to get everything that we were drumming on about and then an hour later they send a drone at this C Cypress flagship." So, h like if we know that's their MO and we have a hyper vagueou and the Iranians are going on state media and saying over and over and over, we are not agreeing to those things. They're crazy. I don't know why Trump keeps saying it. It's all a lie. This is what we're really doing. And then they really go do things that are far more in line with what they're saying out loud. You can just assume that they're buying themselves time in the negotiations. So, um, I'm seeing analysts out of the UAE saying the same thing, like you guys are delusional if you think that you can negotiate with them.

Now, as you can imagine, this brings me back to this is culture. So, uh, I grow increasingly annoyed by people that say you cannot extrapolate anything from what happened in Japan. And I will say unless you think that quantum randomness somehow is just way more at play with Japan than it is anywhere else, what it shows is Japan had a certain setup, a certain culture, uh the way that they ended the war, how fatigued they were even before Pearl Harbor. So you already had people struggling with malnutrition before Pearl Harbor. Okay, so let that sink in. America hasn't even joined the fight yet. They're already getting super fatigued. You already have the troops on the ground hate their leadership and like they end up murdering some of them after the war ends. So it's like all of that's playing out. You nuke twice and you go in American most American uh attention is in Europe. So you have this general uh who's basically just running it like a like he is a dictator truly. He's impacting legislation. He's uh got all of the powers of a US president would have over the US plus like things where he can just by fiat create legislation in Japan ends up working obviously Japan ends up being in this extraordinary story. How does that relate to what's going on in Iran? Value system matters. So if Japan is fatigued, Japan wants to let go of its imperialistic ambitions because it has not been playing out well for them. They want to move in a new direction and then somebody comes in and says, "Hey, we're going to give you all these freedoms, freedom of speech, freedom to uh protest, things that they didn't have historically." And their belief in their supreme leader, their emperor, like who was supposedly I can't believe people believed this, and this is World War II to me is still the modern era. They believed that he was a god or god adjacent. So like imagine that. So when he's like, "Hey, we got to go to war. We got to kill these people." You're like, "Well, God's telling us we got to do it." Like that [ __ ] is wild. The US was smart enough to go, "Ah, we're going to use that as a way to get that person to say all these new freedoms. These are good things. This is what you should want." Was really brilliant. So you've got to be honest about what the the culture is, the value system is in the Middle East. And if you mismap that, you will forever fail to get what you want out of the Middle East because you're not aligned with the way that they are. So you can go give Japan freedoms, they take to it. You try to do it in Afghanistan, it doesn't work. You have a different value set. It is not that Japan is some crazy outlier. It's that we actually whether we did it on accident or not is irrelevant. The things that we tried to give them were in line with where they were psychologically from a value setup, all of that at the time that we tried to do it. We've been so out of step like imagine trying to take DEI to Afghanistan. Are you out of your [ __ ] minds? So it's like that kind of thing is just absolutely asinine because people are not being honest about values are the thing that drive what people will kill and die for. And so if you've got people willing to kill and die for a certain ideology and you're 180 degrees in the opposite direction of that, do not expect it to go well. You're not going to be able to introduce freedoms that they don't want. So that's where I think this continues to be us beating our heads against the wall. And people in the Middle East have been saying for years that trying to go and do Western style diplomacy with Iran is never ever ever going to work. And there are plenty of people saying that the way that Iran has read the Trump administration's negotiation tactics is weakness. It isn't like, "Oh, but he wants to get this economic deal done." They're like, "Fuck this kid. He's weak. He's in a super weak position. all of his concessions like they're they're all uh a sign that he does not have the leverage that he thinks he has. Uh I don't know if this report can be believed, but I heard a report over the weekend that um Aragoti, I believe that's how you say his name, basically the guy that we interface with that we always see publicly speaking on behalf of Iran that he had rocks thrown at him during Kmeni's funeral because the hardliners think that he's an appeaser. So imagine just trying to end the attacks in Iran with the world's vagouou that gave them plenty of options to get out, them all trying to control the straight of Hormuz, that was considered appeasement. So when you've got people that hardcore and you're trying to come in and be diplomatic and come on, we all want a nice economic end to this. Uh which boy do I wish were true, but we're not getting indications that that stuff actually is true. So that's where it's like con expect this to continue to be a um clown show because we're not in alignment with what they actually want. Remember they chant death to America, death to Israel, name us the big Satan, Israel the little Satan. Um that they want the state of Israel to cease to exist. Those are the they're telling you who they are and we're negotiating as if they're not telling us who they are. Now, what that means in terms of how you actually get what we want out of this, that's a whole another discussion that probably involves a lot of bombs, but nonetheless has to be disentangled from what we want to be true versus what actually is true. Um, that brings me to the chanting. I don't mean the like fractal, but Tim Dylan did a good bit on like we can't handle people chanting death to America on that. Before I get to that though, uh it's a bit more comedic. It's it's it's giving quagmire. It's giving We're kind of stuck. We have

>> It's giving quagmire.

>> Yeah. Like to

>> tell me you have a 15-year-old daughter.

>> My house is surrounded by teenagers. I'm sorry. I'm getting indoctrinated. Um, it's one of those things where how you just laid it out. Even the negotiation is viewed as as like subja like they we can't even get to the table to have the conversation and that's the issue. So like what do you like what do like where do we go from here? Like is is it now we have to flip into that total war switch? Like we can't negotiate.

>> I really think total war is over. Uh okay. What do I really think? uh total war is over until something so tragic happens that it absolutely forces some country to cross a line and then everybody's like yeah we're just really in it now we're doing this um hey we're still like you know this is still that period of peace we don't have to do this and China don't have to end up in a kinetic war uh this thing in Iran it can settle down we can negotiate this hey Russia like come on you know chill like let's let's restabilize we don't invade countries anymore like we're still in that no no things can go back to the way they were phase and to be honest I want it to be true so badly that you need to let it play out even though I don't believe it anymore you still need to do the thing because it it is so catastrophic the other option okay because of that for now total warfare I think is still off the table uh you would need some sort of cataclysmic breaking point

>> um what you will end up you you have to run it as a thought experiment government. Of course, uh what you hope is that, hey, the hardliners are losing energy. There's enough push back in Iran. The people are rising up again. These guys understand that they have to begin um softening as a way to maintain power. So, they would have to believe that that is a strategy that keeps them in power for them to actually begin backing off and softening. And so, that's what you want to see play out. So if you're Trump, you've got like a list of targets. You did the surgical ones in the beginning. They were all military installations. It's all the radars, all that. Now remember, unless my memor is faulty, Trump literally said, "We're either out of targets or we're almost out of targets." So the fact that he's now going crazy, we've now entered into a different phase of the attacks. These are not the same style attacks that we had before. This is far less surgical. this is flirting with the we're going to just destroy your infrastructure. Now, they haven't gone all the way to that yet. So, we're in sort of this gray zone of what we're hitting. I don't think the next step is total warfare. But, I do think the next step is and now even your average citizens are going to suffer because we're just going to start taking out your oil infrastructure. Uh we're going to take out normal roads and things like that. And at that point, if you've got them in an economic chokehold and you're taking out infrastructure that's going to take them three to 10 years to rebuild, depending on how extensive the damage is, now all of a sudden it's like, okay, we're really in dire straits because even in our own country, despite being as oil rich as we are, we're not able to get the energy needs in our own country that we need. Then if we can degrade their technological capabilities such that if a fastboat hits the water in the straight, boom, it's hit immediately. If we see a radar installation, even if it's for civilian airports, we're going to take that out. And you just literally level anything that can ping a signal, do anything. And you just watch the exits to the tunnels like a hawk. Every time they send one out, you map back where it is, and you just literally mow the grass all the time. You're just constantly striking the entrances and exits to these tunnels over and over and over and over and over and

Over and over and over and over until finally, these guys are so financially destitute that they, by default, aren't in power anymore. You've got a currency that's hyperinflating, all that. That's how I think this will go. He'll just keep pushing the envelope. What, in terms of the things that he strikes, until the country economically is just so broken that at that point, they, um, they're unable to damage their, um, regional groups. So they're, they're not able to hit the UAE, they're not able to hit Saudi Arabia, they're not able to hit Qatar and Oman and all that.

Okay, so that would be one. Then if they can't fund their proxies, now, let's say you defang financially Hezbollah to the point where Lebanon can actually get them out of their country. Now, like, I'm getting way out over my skis here, but this would be incredible. So, like, Lebanon peep voices in Lebanon. Again, I never know if I'm, it's a 2% thing and the propaganda is just making its way into my feed, or it actually represents a massive amount. But I'm seeing, uh, more people coming out of Lebanon saying, "Hey, we don't want Iran in our country. So, we would much rather normalize things with Israel. We, our beef isn't with Israel. Our beef is with Iran, using our land as a way to get at Israel. And that has weakened us."

Also, and now, again, this is, this is a hypothesis, but Lebanon used to be a Christian country. The Iranian influence coming in on the back of Islamic influence. And so now it becomes a question of what's that split? Some, uh, reports that I've seen is that Lebanon is still like 40% Christian. So, is there that battle to be fought and won? As you defang Iran, are you able to start heading back towards where the Paris of the Middle East? You're a very, very long way from that right now. But if Iran is damaged to the point where they cease to be an influence, what natural flowers begin to spring up in the region? We don't know, but it will certainly be interesting to see. So that's how I see this rolling out. So, first, it was these really surgical military only. Now, it's sort of these gray zone strikes. I think outside of this, if it continues to escalate, you get into just absolute, um, economic infrastructure damage. And then we see what happens, um, outside of that.

Now, we've got the midterms between here and there, but the crazy thing is, boys and girls, we're going to get into this. Uh, oil is not doing what you'd expect. So, Trump isn't going to necessarily have the economic headwinds caused by oil coming into the midterms. I think he's got other economic concerns, but it's probably not going to be, at least on our shores, you're not going to see a big economic impact from what's going on, uh, in the Strait of Hormuz, which is crazy. It was not on my bingo card that the, um, markets would be so blase about the fact that we're back to ultra violence in the area. So, that tells you something. We'll get into what something that tells you in a minute, but that's very interesting.

Now, if that holds and that actually ends up being true and the economy is shaky, but it's not on terrible ground, oil isn't insane, let's say it's hovering around $75 to $80, right? Livable, not great, but livable, then I still think Trump loses the midterms just because he's been a wrecking ball. And I think people are going to vote against that. But if you've got him able to do executive orders and just keep the bombings happening there, not at war, of course, that will be his argument, and you are able to spend two and a half more years just kicking the [ __ ] out of Iran, um, yeah, I don't think economically they get on the other side of this. And so Trump is showing that he really does have the will, at least as much as the stock market will allow, to go back to the heavy strikes. So, we'll see. I wasn't sure that he was going to. Clearly, he does have that resolve.

"Yeah, we'll monitor it. All right, let's jump over with Tim Sim Dylan in his comments on the situation."

"When they chant death to United to the United States, they have no compunction about using these weapons."

"Right? All right. That's what they're going to do when they chant. They're going to chant the chemical weapons into the country. By the way, with the chanting. This is the craziest thing I've ever heard. He's like, 'You hear what they chant?' By the way, you, you know what they chant at like soccer games? They chant all kinds of like, is this the standard of proof now? Is that the line that can't be crossed? Is chanting death to America? What do you mean we can't handle death to America? We can't handle people chanting death to America. I take MORE [ __ ] ON THAT IN COMMENTS. Like, this is crazy and so does anyone who's on the internet."

"This is what we're doing."

"Listen, first of all, Tim Dylan is absolutely hilarious. He's also very insightful, uh, which is a, a wonderful combination. Um, he's right about the fact that we say all kinds of unhinged [ __ ]."

"There are plenty of people that you can find, I'm sure, going on the Senate floor or the congressional floor and talking about needing to bomb this, that, or the other, whether it's Iran, whether it's Russia, just war-mongering, beating that drum like crazy. Um, but they should believe us. And when we say we're going to do it, and we really do do it, you should go, 'Oh, that really is what America is about.' And that's why even in America, we've got our memes of like, 'Oh, you found oil. You need some more freedom.' And insert shot of a building getting struck. They should believe us when we say that kind of [ __ ]. And, uh, Netanyahu's point, say what you will, because Netanyahu, remember, you can find clips of Netanyahu saying, 'What do you do when a man is coming to kill you?' And by the way, this is a Bible verse, uh, Old Testament. What do you do when a man is coming to kill you? You rise early and kill them first. You should believe him."

"They, if they think you're coming after them, they're going to rise early and kill you first. You should believe them. Winnie Ron chants Death to America, you should believe them. So that's where I'm like, yes, it is funny. And yes, people on the internet, uh, can be read in a totally different way. And it is unhinged, man. It, once you come onto the internet, what people say is wild. But, uh, that's a different game to me than when you have governments and members of the government saying this is what we should do, because they are specifically saying it to try to get people on board with that idea. Somebody on the internet is lashing out emotionally. Um, but when you hear the Republican party say this is our like, uh, what was it, the, um, God, there was that document when Trump was running. Oh, somebody's going to know what this is. There was like the America 2025 project."

"Project 25. Uh, you should have believed them. They laid it out. These, this is like an official think tank, boys and girls, putting a thing together that says some percentage of the Republican party believes this, you should believe them. So, when you have official organizations telling you who they are, DSA, I'm looking at you, and they say this is what we're about, you should believe them. Now, very different than somebody who's popping off in the comments on your YouTube feeds. Very funny joke, but in terms of the reality, um, you probably shouldn't believe those people, but you should absolutely believe official government bodies and think tanks when they tell you this is what we think should happen, because they're the ones behind the scenes trying to make that happen, trying to get the right people elected, trying to get the right policies passed, trying to sway the public, uh, manipulating the media, all of that to get everybody on board with those ideas. So, you, again, funny when you liken it to soccer chants, but like the, the Iranians actually kill people. The US actually kill people. So, this is where it's like, yeah, you can probably take those chants that are happening in their version of parliament a lot more seriously than a soccer chant or a comment online. This goes back to what I'm saying about values. If you mismap their values and you think, 'Ah, they're just teasing,' you're going to be confused when they really are pursuing that agenda."

"Yeah. All right, we got some super chats."

"Yes, we do. Two from Marushia Dark."

"Let's go, Maria."

"First up, to Tom's haters who think he hates wealth tax 'cause he's rich. I oppose taxes, welfare, and the Fed, even back when I was starving and homeless. Despite every incentive to take government handouts, I rejected them because they're blood money."

"Dude, I love that. Thank you, Marushia. Uh, also, I will say that when I was broke, I was the same. It all seemed crazy to me. Uh, and one thing that I heard about Americans that I know was meant as slander, but I always thought was, um, really insightful and really exciting about the American psyche. And they were saying that Americans all view themselves as, uh, 'temporarily embarrassed future millionaires.' Meaning that everybody sees themselves as, well, I'm going to be rich one day, so I want to make sure that the policies are going to be such that when I get rich, these apply to me. Now, keep in mind, that is exactly what happened to me. I was, I literally was a temporarily embarrassed future millionaire. So, uh, that played out perfectly. Also, remember, if you want broad-scale prosperity, you're not going to tax your way to it. That, that you tax your way when you start getting into like true socialist, uh, levels of taxation. You tax your way into stagnation, best case, or you spill all the way into socialism and communism, and you tax your way into starvation and people literally dying by the tens of millions, as happened in both Russia and China. So, um, that's where I'm just like, okay, wait, this is making contact with the way that economies work and what actually gets them going. Also, by the way, America has so many social programs already that, um, if it hasn't worked yet, why do people think more, more, more is going to be the answer? Because you're just going to get way more fraud. You're going to get way more people ejecting out of the labor force. Remember, labor force participation, our numbers right now are the worst they've been. I can't remember if it's ever or just like the last 50 years, but they are horrific. People are ejecting out of the workforce. How? Because there are so many social programs. So people are just like, 'Take care of me.' It, it is not the attitude that you want pervasive in culture for the same reason you don't want a bunch of rich kids that have never had to work for anything. They implode psychologically. And we're creating a very similar, um, mind virus, if you will, among people who are like, 'Ah, we're the wealthiest nation on Earth. Just give me my cut.' You won't get people building and creating the things that we need them to. Remember, innovation is the core of everything. So, anyway, uh, I've laid out my arguments. You don't have to turn to, I don't want it for myself. I don't want it for myself, obviously, not only because I have worked for the things that I've gotten, but also because of it, the fact that it will break the engine of prosperity. So, you can take your pick. Yes, it is true that I don't want it for my own reasons. And yes, it is true you can trace these steps of logic that it will also be detrimental to everybody else."

"Next up comes from Mushi Dark again. Can't wait for Tom to finish One Piece so he can watch Demon Slayer, My Hero Academia, Dr. Stone, and my new current favorite anime, Black Clover. They all deal with the mindset of self-improvement despite impossible odds."

"Yeah, Shonen, man. Shonen anime and manga is like a whole mindset trip. Uh, I really wish I Impact Theory had created My Hero Academia. I will just tell you that right now. That is so good. Uh, that is the thing that, um, were we at that stage in our development that is exactly the kind of project I would have greenlit and been like, 'Yes, please, more of that.' Uh, I'm now on like episode 780 of One Piece. And I will say, anybody that thinks that the, um, best arc is Marineford is out of their minds. But hey, it was a good arc, don't get me wrong, but it's not the best."

"What was your favorite arc again?"

"Enies Lobby."

"Nies Lobby, got it. Water 7 to Enies Lobby is like, it's the goated stretch. And I'm a little sad because I, I just think keeping something going for 26 years is just tough, because you, the core characters that you make us like connect with emotionally, you can only do so many big moments of the 'all is lost' for them and we save them, and so you get to go on this huge emotional journey. He does a good job of trying to introduce a character quickly, make their tragic backstory, and resolve it, but it's just like, it doesn't hit the same way that it hits if you've spent 150 episodes with somebody. There was another good beat with Usopp, who's my favorite character, um, where it's the, it's not called the God Usopp arc, but that's like the part that was really awesome. Um, but again, it comes down to he's only got a small number of characters that you can build these grand stories around and he's not doing it anymore. So, uh, we'll see. I, I'll definitely finish it. I'm so far in and it's so good, but it's definitely getting weaker as it goes."

"Tism over inquisitive says, 'Join the Zero to Founder while full-time in school and parent life. Grind set is, uh, grind set is go and the value is already worth it.' Thank you, Tom, for organizing it and thank you team for being incredible. Everyone should join ZTF."

"Dude, I love that. Thank you so much. So, uh, I'm very passionate about helping founders start companies, as you guys will have surmised. I believe that founders are the ones that solve the world's greatest problems. It is not going to be government. Uh, so, yeah, I would love to help out Zero to Founder. Join it today."

"Um, really quick, uh, that quote that you said, 'Rise early, strike them first,' it's not from the Bible, it's from the Talmud. Talmud is the rabbinic translation of like the Hebrew Bible. So how rabbis look at it."

"What's the, what's the difference between the Old Testament and the Hebrew Bible?"

"It's not from the Old Testament or the Hebrew Bible. It's from the, the Talmud. Talmud. I'm mispronouncing that. Yes. So the Talmud is what rabbis write, what they learn."

"So it's like their Hadith."

"I'm not really familiar with. The Hadith is a bunch of, um, I think they still all come from, um, Muhammad, but it's like, okay, we've got the Quran, which was like written. Then we've got the Hadith, which is a bunch of like off-the-cuff stuff. I've always, I've never read the Hadith, so I couldn't tell you, but I've always saw it as like, if anybody knows the Dao De Jing, where it was like, supposedly the story goes, Lao is trying to leave his village in China. The guy at the gates like, 'Bro, you can't leave until you write all this stuff down.' So he just goes and writes like all these little stories and they almost read, they're not poetic, but they read in sort of a poetic sonnet way. That's my understanding of the Hadith, and please, anybody in chat that can correct me. Um, is basically, okay, you know the Quran says this, but like, there was this one story over here, and it's just like a bunch of things that like add color to the Quran."

"They weren't, they weren't divinely, divinely written. So it's not, it's separate from the Bible."

"Same thing with the Hadith."

"Okay. Yeah. It's just the rabbis' interpretation of it, like the commentary, basically."

"Okay. Director's commentary on the movie. It wasn't in the movie, but you know."

"Perfect. Okay. So, uh, nonetheless, it is culturally a, an idea that's baked into, um, Israeli culture for sure. Um, Judaism, I would say, I can only speak to, um, Israel. There was a book written with that title that goes into this was their exact approach to what happened after the Holocaust. Um, how you can interpret some of like the Six-Day War and stuff. So, it's, um, it may not be official doctrine, but I have seen the clips of, uh, Netanyahu himself say, 'What do you do when a man is coming to kill you? You rise early and kill him first.' So, it's like, clearly from a cultural standpoint, it has relevance."

"Just wonder."

"But thank you for, um, fact-checking that."

"Let's get over to Canada and this pending trade war. So, I knew we got out of the deal, but I didn't know it was going to escalate this way. So, um, I don't know if you want to start with the video or you want to, uh, set it up for us first."

"So, technically, we're not out of the deal, but we have now put it on like this yearly cadence. Um, but my real question is, are the US and Canada really about to stumble into a full-blown trade war? And the answer is maybe. So, this is actually starting to get bizarre. And to understand why this is playing out, you've got to understand how close Canada and China are becoming. And to understand that, you have to understand how far left Canada is going. Now, on July 1st, the Trump administration did refuse to renew the USMCA. That's the trade deal that Trump himself, by the way, used to champion. He was saying it's the best agreement ever made. Refusing to renew it, though, doesn't kill it. It just creates a totally different, like, time review cycle. So, every year now it's going to be reviewed instead of being locked into a 16-year extension. So there, if you imagine, every year it opens this window to go in and say, 'We're not getting enough,' either side, uh, to try to squeeze the other or just outright blow it up. Now, Trump obviously is making his position clear. He said, and this is a quote, 'We don't need anything that Canada has. They have to treat us better.' Now, to make sense of that, you need to understand that the US, it's like 72% of our GDP is us spending money. So, not only are we either the biggest economy or tied for, uh, first or maybe slightly second on some aspects with China, but we're one of the big boys. But the reason that we're more important to the world than China is because we buy stuff. This is part of how we were able to help the world get out of the calamity of World War II was our economy was thriving so hard that all the other economies could start building themselves up, trying to sell into America. Now, this is also what ends up, uh, being a part of glutting our, uh, manufacturing base. So, it doesn't end up just being a bonus, but it makes us systemically important to the world in a way that virtually, that nobody is on the expenditure standpoint. And so we may not have the biggest population, but by far we have the wealthiest and most likely to spend money. And so the world is constantly trying to make things and sell to us. So Canada is going to want to sell things to us. That's going to be a huge part of their economy. And Washington knows that. Um, that's part of why we know we have leverage. We can go to China and we're in bilateral talks with them right now. In fact, round three kicks off on July 20th. But with Canada, nope, we're just the formal negotiations haven't even started. So Trump knows, 'You guys need us more than we need you,' which is almost certainly true. Uh, Trump's own trade chief, Jameson Greer, told lawmakers that only two countries retaliated economically against the US last year: China and Canada, and that's why we're putting the stick to them. So, understanding that we're, we talked about this a lot in the early days of the live was that the US is very much in a late-stage empire moment. The world order is changing dramatically, and the US now has to play some of its cards if it wants to press the leverage that it has. If you play poker, you know, when you're a big stack, uh, you can bully people around the table with the betting and push some people out. And if nothing else, you can take people's, um, blinds. And so what you see now, at least with Trump, is that he can see that we're still big stack, but big stack is dwindling very rapidly. And so we've got to start using some bully tactics if we want to take advantage of being big stack because it's not necessarily going to last forever, certainly not with the debt looming. And so he's really starting to push the advantage with Canada, with Europe, with China, like just trying to establish us as a, he would want to see us as a rising power, but as a more stabilized power, if nothing else. And so understanding that trade is going to continue to be an area where we really flex our muscle is important to understanding why things are getting weird with Canada. Even though, you know, they've long been the neighbor that we never even had to think about. There was no problems, nothing bad coming out. But now when you've got in January, Prime Minister Mark Carney going to Beijing, meeting with Xi, cutting Canada's, uh, tariff on China's EVs from 100% down to 6.1%. The US is going to like take notice, especially when in exchange, China slashes its canola tariffs from 84% to 15%, reopening a $4 billion market for Canadian farmers. Now, just keep in mind, don't eat canola oil. It's probably one of the reasons that Lindsey Graham died. Just throwing that out there. But I'm not kidding about that at all. But nonetheless, that's, uh, you see like a lot of exchange now going on between China. So, there used to be far more standoffishness between Canada and China. Obviously, the US is saying, 'Hey, if you start creating friction with us and reducing friction with China, we're going to feel some type of way about that.' So, the fact that China and Canada are the two countries that are retaliating against the US, yeah, that's not going to go unanswered. That's for sure. So, now Trump's response is a threat to hit all Canadian goods with a 100% tariff, which would be absolutely catastrophic for them. Warning Carney that Canada will not become a quote 'drop-off, drop-off port for Chinese products entering America.' Now, here's something we haven't talked about. China's economy is in a rough spot. Not saying they're in some sort of death spiral or anything like that, but just like the US is in a rough spot, China's in a rough spot. Now, China doesn't, um, create GDP by spending money. China's not rich like that, not like America. What China does is they export. Now, as tensions rise with the US, now you've got the biggest consumer economy being like, 'Nah, we're, we're going to take a lot less Chinese goods.' Well, if you've been propping up manufacturing as, uh, Xi has, now all of a sudden those manufacturing plants have nowhere to send their goods. So, they're sending them all over the world. Europe is already starting to feel it. So, Europe is potentially, let's not get out over our skis, but potentially has friction now brewing between China and Europe. And so, if China is not able to get goods into Europe, where else are they going to put them? Or how aggressive is China going to be against Europe? Because Europe is, uh, leaning on China for a lot of inexpensive goods. I'm sure a lot of European makers are doing manufacturing in China, which they could absolutely cut them off from. And so, again, just going back to this overall crazy level of instability. Not that, you know, catastrophe is upon us or anything like that, but it's like you can just feel like if you've ever been in an earthquake, you have that, uh, initial feeling at the beginning where it's like, is this the beginning of something that's going to grow into something much bigger, or is this a small thing that's going to peter out very quickly? That's where we don't know. But all of a sudden, we're on very shaky ground. It's a very unnerving feeling, and nobody should feel like they can see the future clearly enough to know where this is going to go. But the fact that America's beef with China, or sorry, with Canada is pretty crazy. So, we'll see how this plays out. But if this escalates, I assure you, Canada is going to get hurt worse than the US. That is for sure. But we're all going to have to watch and pay attention to see how this plays out."

"What do you think is the downfall? Because somebody in the chat said the same thing. If Canada goes full China and lets a lot of it disassociates with the US, they're going to be hurt more than we are. What are the mechanisms you guys are seeing that make you so confident in that?"

"Oh, because they'll do exactly what they're doing to, um, Europe already, what they had a major impact on US, uh, during the WTO days, which is they're going to come in and they're going to make EVs so cheap in Europe that Europeans are never going to pay for a European car. And you're already seeing massive layoffs in the auto industry in Europe. That's going to continue to escalate. Any, um, industry where China goes, 'We're going to take this.' Like, imagine, look at what China's doing with solar. Solar's massive. Solar is the future. Just everybody brace themselves for that."

"So, China's way ahead of everybody. I'd say even ahead of the US."

"And they're way, way, way ahead of Europe. So, Europe has like green suicide plans. So, they're like suiciding themselves from a green perspective. But, if China could be like, 'Hey, don't worry about it. You guys don't have to go back to coal. That's crazy. Let's get you hooked up with, um, these solar panels that we're doing and batteries.' And so that becomes the next, let's say, 5 to 10 year run. So, now instead of building their own solar and energy, uh, industry, they just go, 'Oh, cool. China's going to export our stuff to us that helps us continue down our green path.' But now, like, manufacturing is just going away and away and away. And so, what ends up happening is you get this really weird race where it's like, okay, we are so many people are getting laid off and we have such a big social welfare state that we've got to have some way to address this. And there are two ways. You make labor cheaper. Immigrants, anybody? And you make the actual items cheaper. China, send me your cheapest EVs. And your solar panels and your batteries. And so China can subsidize those industries and manipulate their currency to make sure that Europe can buy the stuff cheaper. So, now Europe's, um, economy is going down. Their ability to build is going down. Their labor force participation is going down, but what they can buy is holding flat enough that you're disguising how poor they're really getting. And then on top of that, because they have to keep funneling cheaper labor, they're going to keep doing the immigrant influx, but that's going to break their culture. And so ultimately, what ends up happening is, uh, European countries go into internal strife. They become more beholden to China because China can output such cheap stuff. They try to get elected. They try to mask that their economy is getting worse and worse and worse and worse. And now they're stuck because you either go, 'We're going to have to eat it. That it's going to be rough for 10 years. We're going to build back industry. Things are going to get more expensive. You're going to be able to afford less. You're going to be fine. You're going to be able to eat. We're going to get you on the other side of this. But we're not, we're going to have to massively reduce our welfare spend, which people will literally riot over. And that's going to be an absolute nightmare. But if they don't do that, they guarantee themselves like this slow decline into poverty and just like an absolutely decimated culture where there's no cultural stability because they brought in all these different, um, cultural groups and it, it will lead to internal strife that makes it impossible for them to continue on as a wealthy Western country. It's, listen, that's if nobody ever hits the brakes. You see like, look at Germany, and I know people have like a very, um, emotional response to the AFD, but they continue to rise in popularity because they can see the economic reality of this playing out and they're like, 'No, no, no.' Like, they're xenophobic, I'm sure, but it's like in a moment where it's like you're just trying to bring in cheap labor, unfortunately, xenophobic candidates are going to have popularity. And unfortunately, for all of us, that xenophobia from an outcome perspective is the same as just having sensible immigration. Now, it rides on the back of something nefarious, but it gets the job done. So, that's where it's like the likelihood of a far-right party continuing to gain, um, power and influence goes up dramatically as the country gets poorer and poorer and has to bring in more and more cheap labor and more goods from China because some people, I, if they can't find work, it is a level of emotional distress that's massive. And so it's not like, well, as long as we can keep making things cheaper for them and keep the welfare state limping along, we're going to be fine. No, there are going to be some people that become the angry young men of it all because they want a job. They can't get one. They have no sense of meaning and purpose. They don't break left, they break right, and we know how it went. The last time Germany broke right, was not a good time. Um, I was talking about like, I'm assuming the same thing is true for Canada because you use Europe as the example. But if Canada links up with China, which they're already kind of doing, same example, same, right?"

"Same exact play out. Now the, uh, or sorry, Canada does not have the same history that Europe has. So I would expect culturally for it to play out a little bit differently. Um, Canada has complained relatively little about getting impoverished over the last 20 years. It's crazy. When you look at Canada's decline economically on a chart, it's insane. Insane, man. They're not even going to be in, I think they already fell out of the G7. It's like, if they stay in the G20 for another 20 years at this rate, I'd be surprised."

"Um, but as you were listing some of these things, wages, um, or labor, you need to get cheaper labor or cheaper things, immigrant influx, make prices cheaper, it's going to destroy industries. I feel like you have described a lot of the things that we're seeing in America now as well."

"Well, so the WTO absolutely gutted our, um, manufacturing. So that battle we lost unfortunately a long time ago, 'cause you can compare us to our peak, like in the, call it the '40s through '70s, where it was like, we really [ __ ] made [ __ ] then you see, especially post-'71, where we go, 'You know what's going to be our biggest thing? Finance.' And so we, financialized everything, K-shaped economy starts in earnest, you start inflating the currency like mad, blah, blah, blah, things I've talked about a gazillion times. So, it's like very similar, um, concept, consequences, but they happen for different reasons. And now we, at least have a government that's in power that's like, 'No, hold on. We're not going to keep doing this. We're going to, like with our boy Palmer Lucky, we're going to start making things here. We're going to leverage some of our historical know-how, automobiles being the thing that we do best. We're going to start manufacturing that. We're going to take some hits. Economically, things aren't going to get as cheap as we want. We're not going to pull in the cheap labor. We're not going to, um, do the 'China, just give me everything cheap that you've got.' We're not going to play that game. Now, they have to find answers to how we keep the economy going because you have to get real wages up. Right now, unfortunately, real wages are dropping. So, you've got real wages up like 3.2 or something like that. But inflation is at 4.1, 4.2. So, on real terms, people are more than a percent behind. So, not good news. Um, we, you have to reverse that. Now, maybe some of that comes down because we just start producing so much energy that we create a sort of energy deflation, and that makes everything a little bit cheaper, and that's innovation-led, uh, deflation, not crisis-led deflation. So, yay. Um, but yes, people are right to say, 'Wait a second, I see a lot of those things here in the US.' It's true. It's just not, we're not as far along. We're maybe five to 15 years behind Europe, Canada. Canada seems to be declining even faster than Europe, but I haven't compared the numbers closely enough to know that that's true. Um, but yeah, Canada is dropping much, much faster than the US."

"Yeah. Um, and we're starting to see some of this weird macroeconomics play out on the global level, especially when we're talking about stocks, oil markets, things like that that even with this war, we haven't seen the gas prices, uh, chop back up and stuff like that. So, I know we have that queued up, kind of setting up what's going to happen, how the oil futures haven't necessarily been matched up now that we've gone full panic mode and bombing everything in Iran. The LOU's done, all that stuff."

"This one is very interesting to me. So, we're blowing things up in Iran again, but oil futures aren't moving up the way that you would expect. So, what the hell is going on? Back in March, the mere threat of a closed Hormuz sent Brent to $119. Top analysts were forecasting, 'Yo, this is going to $200 a barrel.' But now what's happening? See, as far as dead as this go, baby. The US has bombed the life out of Iran for the better part of a week now. Tankers are being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is claiming that the strait is closed, but only but oil has only jumped by 4.4%, 4%, and then pretty much instantly gave it back within 24 hours. Okay, WTI, which is like the US-based Texas oil rating, is roughly $72. So, something strange is afoot at the Circle K. Let's, um, one thing that we have to start looking at is what are the supply and demand side of things that are going on, because everybody thought this was going to be a supply story where, 'Hey, you close this Strait of Hormuz, you start bombing oil infrastructure, we're going to be screwed, like there's going to be a global recession and people aren't going to be able to get what they need. It's game over.' But I think people have completely misassessed the demand flexibility because people thought that oil demand, energy demand was pretty much inflexible, but Ken Griffin, uh, has a different take on what's going on. Let's take a look at this clip."

"You're getting right. What's it mispricing?"

"So, so big picture, big picture, not only is there a war in the Middle East, there's still a raging war in Europe."

"And the peace that you and I grew up with for most of our adult lives is clearly not on the table right now."

"Toast. And for anybody following the situation in Cuba, there's obviously the potential threat of, of a would be a reasonably small skirmish in Cuba, but yet another war. And at some point, do you encourage other countries around the world to increase their use of military power? We're going to get to that. Okay, we'll get to that. So, why, why are we seeing all-time highs in the S&P while there's a war in the Middle East? Number one is the United States is somewhat shielded from the energy crisis that this war is creating."

"That is a very important."

"Trait key transit point for energy. We all know these details. There's a couple things that have been, I would say, upside surprises for the world economy."

"Number one is for a litany of reasons, China has been able to dramatically reduce their demand for oil. Much more elasticity of demand out of China than anybody had anticipated."

"You run one of the biggest commodity traders. Did you guys see that coming?"

"Not the degree of the elasticity of demand destruction. So, yes, of course, China will find ways to curtail their need for crude, but the magnitude of that curtailment has been stunning. Number two is this strategically a decision by Iran, or is this just happenstance? But there has been a constant, not constant, an episodic flow of oil from the region."

"Pause it for a second. Right. You'll get this."

"So, th, this is, I think, an important part of the story is, uh, I think one of the biggest things that come out of the LOU is the fact that we've been able to open the strait for a while, get all those ships. I mean, remember it was like people were talking about a humanitarian crisis. These guys aren't able to get food and water. They've been stuck in these boats forever, and you've got all the oil. LOU, get it through. Even though we know we're both lying to each other. We know, both of us know that like on the other side of this, uh, it's all going to fall apart, but we both have our reasons for wanting to get the oil through. Iran wants to generate revenue, which I'm sure they generated tens of billions, hundreds of billions of dollars. Also, the US is like, 'Bro, we got to get oil.' Like, I can't have all my partners globally, all my allies sweating me that they're, you know, on the brink of an energy crisis. And so demand destruction is very helpful. Obviously, far more helpful than people thought. But just like getting the oil out has been a big deal."

"Trump, by the way, right now is swearing up and down the strait is not closed. If you're lawful traffic, you're going to get through. Now, that's pretty bold statement there. For a while, it was like, well, we're going to try to escort people and we got to be very careful. He's just like, 'Nope, go.' So, I don't know if that's because they really have degraded their ability to patrol the strait that much that he's really that confident, or he just wants like, 'Hey, [ __ ] it. You're only going to get one out of, you know, whatever 50 ships. We'll deal with that when it happens.' That I don't know. Um, but even if you keep a trickle of oil going out, you're able to prolong this. So, every ship that gets out is, you know what, 20 more minutes that you can like push this off. So, it's like if they can keep enough ships trickling out, then Trump buys himself more and more time. That's a really interesting part of the story. The core part obviously is, um, the surprise that everybody's had that China has a lot more ability either through releasing massive amounts of reserves, which I'm sure is part of their strategy. Um, also just being like, 'Hey, we're doing this, but we're not doing that.' I think at some point they were also selling oil to other people, so they may just be like, 'No, we're keeping it all ourselves.' And so they've been able to have a huge impact in terms of what does the world need right now. And it's my understanding that, uh, China influences the demand for oil like something like 74%. Now, that's one of those, I need to double-check because that number seems so shocking when I came across it. I was like, I need to go deeper on that to make sure that that's really real. But dude, if it's anywhere close to that, that one country drives global demand by that much is crazy."

"Yeah. And there was also earlier reports when Iran was giving them special passes to get through the, uh, strait too before the LOU. So, to your point, every couple weeks there was just been like, 'Okay, we get a little bit of oil, we get a little bit of oil.' So."

"Yep, LG freighters that will get out with LG, you'll see the oil cargos leave. We've managed to keep oil at roughly a low $100 price."

"Versus, I would say most estimates were to put us at this point in this war, if the straits are closed, we'd be looking at almost $200 a barrel."

"Let's talk about."

"All right, you can stop it. So, that's the, that was the original take is everybody thought this was going to $200."

"Mhm."

"And so the fact that we can be in open warfare over the strait, the thing that originally panicked everybody, and now people are like, 'Nah, it's probably going to be fine.' What markets are doing is basically pricing in, yeah, we're going to like be in a new world order. There are going to be some ships that get struck every now and then. You're going to have a volley of missiles from time to time, but the US is going to mow the grass, and like, we're going to be fine. So that's where, um, this gets very interesting is to see how one, markets trade on emotion. Never forget that. So, when this was new and novel and people weren't sure what was going to happen, the swing was massive. Now that it's like, 'Oh yeah, okay, we sort of get where this is going. You get demand destruction. Uh, China's able to control what we thought was inelastic demand is actually very elastic demand.' And so, nh, we're going to be fine. Uh, and so now you get stabilization in the markets, which of course is what Trump wants. Now, there's another guy that's talking about this that I find very interesting. Um, his name is Jeff Snyder. We just had him on the show. This guy is interesting. He's one of those people. Maybe he's just too technical. I don't know. But he's one of those guys. I'm like, 'How is this guy not bigger?' His thinking is so clear. It's so different than what a lot of people are saying. He certainly has internal logic. Now, having internal logic doesn't mean that you're right, but he has consistent internal logic. He has a worldview that things map very well into. Uh, and I want to give him a chance to talk about what he sees going on, which is, um, different than what Griffin is saying is happening. Today, we've got to look at one of the most intense and surprising signals in all global markets right now. On Thursday, the oil curve went completely flat. Now, that sounds technical, but this is a huge development. In a normal shortage environment, especially given the historic shock that we just went through, what we'd expect to see is near-term oil prices trading at a premium to those further down into the future. Instead, in the space of just a couple weeks, we've seen these curves collapse and twist into a shape that suggests the market is now saying we're on the cusp of having too much oil."

"Pause it. Um, imagine if that actually is true. I don't know that that's quite what we see. But you are seeing some fear in terms of like, are we the world that we thought we were? Are we where we thought we were? Um, if he ends up being right, and people should watch the episode that's coming out. Is it, does it come out this Thursday?"

"Uh, yes, this Thursday. So, yeah, I would definitely watch that episode because he has a worldview that follows along from what he's covering here, which is that the global economy is far worse than you think. Um, I'll, I'll let him finish saying it, but like that part right there is scandalous."

"Mhm."

"Shocking part. Supply has not fully normalized and the path to getting there is still fraught with difficulties and uncertainty. Yet the front of this curve is where the flattening is most dramatic. That points away from a simple supply story and straight toward demand destruction. The possibility the global economy is weakening so quickly that even constrained supply is becoming more than enough of it. Now, Steve and I have been telling you to watch both major forces behind the."

"Pause it for a second. I want to really, um, hammer this home. So, what he's saying is that all right, you've got supply constraints, uh, normalized."

things somewhat, but we're still blowing things up. This is not like, uh, this has all been settled, everything's fine. Hey, it's back to normal. Not that at all.

So, what the markets are telling you, where people are actually putting their money, what that's telling you is that people are like, "I just don't know that we're going to need this much oil." Now, when people don't need energy, that is a very bad sign. That is a screaming red alarm. Uh, now, if it were us transitioning to solar, I would feel very differently, or if enough nuclear had come on that it was really mattering. That's different. That's innovation-led, uh, deflation or switching of a need, if you will. But when they actually just need less energy, full stop, period, end of story. "I don't need this much energy because we're just not doing as much. We're not making as much. We're not traveling. We're not spending money." Um, that's where it gets weird.

So, he's saying the market is placing bets every day. And given how close what he's calling the near end of the curve, so the immediate cost, given how close it is to the disruption that we're still in the middle of all this, the fact that it's dropping back down, that is hard to explain. If the, the story that investors are trading on is a supply-side shock, but it makes all the sense in the world if what they're actually trading on is fear over a demand-side shock, that the, the whole economy is just doing worse and worse and worse, and people are now betting on that. And this is one of the things I won't go into it now because it's complex and it's worth giving it its full due. But in the episode, we talk about why, despite the fact that the US inflates, inflates, inflates, inflates, inflates, people still, um, have tremendous appetite for demand for government bonds. I mean, it is still historically very low for bonds to be sitting at whatever, four and a half percent. So, it is very interesting. Uh, and so, yeah, getting his whole take on that fits right in with this idea of demand destruction. It's based on a global economy that is in far worse shape than people think.

This flat curve is the other one, and it fits with a much broader set of warning signs. The shocking deterioration in the household employment figures, the crash in labor force participation, declining real incomes, and the plunge in TIPS break-even rates. So, we'll break down everything that's going on in oil, why this curve shape is so unusual in this context, and really why the speed of the transformation may be the most important part of the story, and of course, how it all fits together in this context. So, Steve, Steve, what's your take on the oil futures curve? I know that's one of the more detail on what we've been talking about, but that's the gist is, okay, you've got, um, Ken Griffin saying, "Hey, this really is a story of elastic demand. We thought that the demand was inelastic, but the reality is, nope. China, uh, is by far the world's largest, um, controller of that demand. And we just found out that China can really, um, constrain their needs. Cool. So, you have a problem play out in the Middle East or elsewhere. They've got the ability to throttle back their demand, absolutely massively. I don't think anybody has yet a clear picture on exactly how they're doing it, but they're able to do it. Then you've got Jeff Snyder going, "Okay, sure. Yeah, maybe. But you also have the flattening of this curve out into the future where people believe right now you may end up actually having too much oil. The thing that people are willing to bet their money on is that this is even after everything is completely normalized, you're not going to see the demand spike back up, which is very, very interesting." Um, obviously, that would be horrible, and we don't want that to be true. Um, but I do think that given the amount of distress that people are raising their hand and saying that they feel, um, it's pretty self-evident that what I'll call a stealth recession has been going for more than a year. Is it more than two years? So, we've been in a place where, um, if you weren't in the markets, you were not loving life for an extended period of time. Now, Jeff tracks it all the way back to 2008. For him, it's just like, we've never recovered from that. Um, but whether you clock it all the way back there, or you just take it forward to where we're at right now and say, "Listen, um, for whatever reason, the world is pulling way back on demand. Uh, jobs are absolutely terrible. We're getting jobs numbers for a year that we used to consider a monthly rate, uh, which is already crazy. And so you've got all this, um, demand destruction happening in the labor force, uh, because of recessionary, he calls them depressionary trends. Um, you also have AI, and now it becomes a question of, is AI actually reducing the number of jobs, or is it being used as a cover story, which is an interesting debate. Uh, but you have all this demand destruction. Then because we're in a place, certainly here in the US, where we've got such a massive social safety net, you also have people just saying, "I can't be bothered anymore. I'm not even trying to be in the labor force." You put those two things together, and you have this horrifying, um, labor force participation rate, which is dire, and I'm shocked at how few people are talking about this. So, yeah, this is going to be one that people need to watch. Uh, this further increases my paranoia about being in risk-on assets. So,

>> Yeah, be careful out there, boys and girls.

All right, we got to jump over to Sam Altman, who's he, he, he's like about to be the biggest fumble of this generation, 'cause he went from like AI poster boy, golden child to, I don't even know what's going on right now. He had beef on with Elon. But the biggest news is that Apple is suing him.

>> Yeah, Sam Altman continues to entrench himself as the sociopath of AI, basically, at least according to Apple, as they attempt to level OpenAI with a massive lawsuit for stealing their hardware IP, basically at an industrial scale. So, Apple filed suit against OpenAI on Friday in federal court. Uh, they're alleging systematic trade secret theft. Complaint does not stop at OpenAI, by the way. It drags in poor Johnny Ive, if you guys remember him from Apple fame. So, he has a company called LoveFrom, which was purchased by OpenAI for $6.5 billion. There's also other individuals named in the suit. You've got Tang Tan, which is OpenAI's chief hardware officer and former Apple VP of product design, uh, as well as Chang Lei, a former Apple senior systems electrical engineer. The allegations are intense, man. Apple claims that Tan directed job candidates still working at Apple to bring actual hardware parts to their OpenAI interviews for what was being called show-and-tell sessions. It claims Lei exploited a security bug to download over a thousand pages of confidential technical files, including manufacturing documents for Apple's circuit boards. Then he joked about it in messages. Whoops. Boys and girls, please remember 50 Cent's immortal words: "I try not to say nothing the DA might want to play in court. Try not to write anything down that the DA might want people to read in court." Lei also allegedly kept his Apple-issued laptop after leaving and coaching another Apple or other Apple employees on which confidential materials to study before their interview with OpenAI. Wild. Apple also says OpenAI misled a manufacturing partner into using a proprietary Apple metal finishing technique by implying it had Apple's permission. Yo, the filing calls OpenAI's hardware business rotten to its core and notes over 400 former Apple employees now work at OpenAI. Apple wants damages plus a court order forcing OpenAI to return his materials and stop using them. Now, OpenAI's response is, "We have no interest in other companies' trade secrets." Okay. Uh, the timing of all of this is just insane. OpenAI is trying to get their IPO going. These guys can't catch a break. I mean, they're shooting themselves in their own dick. But, uh, Apple and OpenAI, by the way, used to be partners back in 2024. Apple dropped them for Google in January, presumably because they knew that this was going on. Now, I imagine that they were already building their case before they parted ways. And now the lawsuit is dropping just as OpenAI was preparing their IPO and undoubtedly was going to use the hardware device as like the lead thing to get people excited. Woo, buddy, this one is going to be full of fireworks. So, get ready for one of the wildest corporate battles in modern memory. I mean, this is, this is going to be crazy. And I really do think Apple means this as a kill shot to an already weakened OpenAI. This is going to get crazy. And by the way, Apple has more cash than God, but they really are out of ideas. And so if this is the one piece of hardware that they had hoped were going to replace the iPhone, which I don't know if I buy that. They fumbled the ball so hard on AI so far. Uh, but that's what some analysts are claiming. Um, if that really was the, this is like kill shot V, kill, kill shot. So, it'll be interesting to see because if OpenAI absconds with the technology and is farther down the road and is able to integrate it with more powerful AI, man, oh man, this is going to get weird. But the real fun of it all is the, uh, X exchange between Elon and, um, what's his face?

>> Sam Altman.

>> Sam Altman. Thank you. Uh, where scroll the beginning of this. Yeah, that's the beginning. So, Elon tweeted, "Scam Altman is super good at scamming." Uh, Ado designer account retweeted that. Elon retweeted that, "He takes scamming to a whole new level." So, then Sam Altman quote-tweeted that and said, "Homeboy, you're the one selling public market investors on short-term space data centers."

>> Yeah. So, before we move on, because there's one more, uh, knock after that. Um, so what Sam is saying is, "Listen, Elon, you built a lot of hype around your IPO of SpaceX AI, saying, 'Oh, bro, like, we're going into outer space. Like, this is going to be crazy. Like, you have no idea what the future holds between what we're doing with, um, putting the internet out in space and now what we're going to be doing with these data centers in space.'" And Sam's like, "Dude, that's so crazy. That's so many years off in the future. Never going to happen. Not, not for this first wave of investors. So, basically, you've like pulled this big scam where you've got retail investors super hype, and they're all gonna get absolutely punished." And then Elon says, "We start flying them next year. Maybe you can come see them if your parole officer approves after stealing an open-source AI charity. You then stole all of Apple's phone technology." Wow. What do you plan for an encore? That's tough to beat. It is so crazy to me that we live on the timeline where these absolute titans of industry are just taking pot shots at each other, uh, out in public. It's crazy. This, this is going to be, uh, very damaging to one or both of these companies. By the way, Apple and, um, OpenAI will spend an ungodly amount of money and time and focus on fighting this. I'll be very interested to see if they actually get the injunction that stops OpenAI from using the technology because if this puts that tech on hold for a year or more, oh my god.

>> Yeah, especially with the delayed IPO and stuff like that. Yes.

>> Um, Jerry Rings, everything tweeted, um, kind of got caught on the side thing. He said, "Elon said we would have 50,000 Optimus robots in 2026. We currently have zero." Um, for some reason, me pointing that out will make a lot of people really mad. But going to Elon's shot back at, uh, Sam Altman, "We're gonna have data centers in space next year." We all, we all know Elon has a timing problem where we're going to do this, and then three years later, that's when it kind of actually happens. So, are you bullish on space data centers? Like, do you think that that is a thing, or is this kind of a, "it starts out this, but it may morph into something else" kind of like how the AI industry is currently doing? I think the best advice anybody can get is never bet against Elon. If Elon is saying that something is, um, possible from an engineering perspective, then it's possible.

>> Uh, so yes, will he get the timing right? Probably not. Will they actually, um, launch data centers into space? Almost certainly yes. Will it matter? That's a bigger question because right now, there's so much news coming out that we have an overabundance of AI data centers. Um, SpaceX AI is already leasing their, um, basically intelligence output, the cycles on their data centers to Anthropic. And so that remains a big question. Now, I am still convinced that we are in the middle of the normal cycle that plays out where you've got a revolutionary new technology with massive infrastructure costs and timing. And so, yes, you're probably going to stumble, and there are going to be massive losses for investors. But the technology is real, and ultimately, it's going to get out there, and it's going to do its thing. I think that intelligence is so important. The very thing that makes humans able to do what we've done is intelligence. So, the fact that artificial intelligence is already so good, um, is it what we all want it to be? No. Of course, we want to get better and better and better and better and better. But even if it, it has already hit its peak and it's never going to get any smarter, simply deploying it into more and more places is going to be utterly transformative. Um, the internet took 20-plus years for it to play out for people to really show what it could do. Um, and the same is going to be true with what's going on in AI right now. So, that one to me is, is a timing thing. Will they get the timing right? Probably not. Will it still be this utterly transformative thing? Yes.

Yeah. So, keeping up with future tech news, you teased it up earlier in the episode. This is a video of Palmer Luckey showing kind of their missile allotment and how he plans to do it on an assembly line style.

>> This is incredible. This is a cruise missile.

>> Yeah. So, this is one of three cruise missiles that Anduril is manufacturing. One of the key things that Anduril has done that is different from many other companies is design our cruise missiles so that they can be very easily manufactured by automotive-style assembly lines, workers, and manufacturing equipment. Most other companies design very exquisite missiles that are built by high-end aerospace factories. But by building missiles with 90% less parts, they can be built in 10% of the time using automotive-style factories. It means that a country can make all of its automotive factories into part of its deterrent strategy. Remember that.

>> All right, pause it for a second. The thing that I love about Palmer Luckey is he is the reward that we get for people finally waking up and saying, "I'm not going to spend my time and energy making the next Twitter," which is like what everybody was doing for such a long time. There was a whole thing from Peter Thiel where he said, "We were promised flying cars and we got 140 characters." What he was trying to get at is the best and the brightest minds from around the world were sucked into two things. They were sucked into finance, and they were sucked into basically apps. And there was a ton of money, and I understand why people pursued it, but eventually, it got to the point where, um, our best and brightest found themselves being pulled into actual physical engineering and manufacturing. And you see Elon go into hardcore, just tangible, um, moving electrons around the physical world. And the same thing with Palmer Luckey. And when you raise our, just young people with an absolute hunger to build real things, you get a very different world than when everybody's going into software. That doesn't mean don't go into software. There should be an absolute for the people that love it. Go into that. Build the things that you care about. But the fact that we were just telling people over and over and over, "Everything's in software, everything's in software, go to software," um, I think really delayed a lot of cool things. And now, by the way, we really are getting flying cars. And we're getting, I mean, listen, we're in a moment where building weapons is an important, um, national security priority. So, seeing somebody like Palmer, if you don't know his backstory, it's absolutely incredible. When he was a teenager, uh, he starts making what ended up becoming the, um, Quest VR goggles for Meta. Like, imagine doing that as a kid, makes a couple billion dollars off of that, turns that into Anduril and some other companies, which now on their own are way bigger than what's going on with the Quest headset. So, I mean, it's just absolutely astonishing what happens when you raise kids in an environment where it's like, "Listen, if you've got the ability to pull this off, like there's no limit. Go pursue something great." And getting them excited about being American, building something in America for national security. Like, this is so exciting to me. Um, I really love seeing this. Manufacturing is what made America great. Being able to build, understanding that we have some of the most hardworking, innovative people on planet Earth, that that had been our ethos from time immemorial. I love seeing it come back. This is very exciting for me because we've become so financialized. And look, it's a modern miracle what we've built with the financial system. It's absolutely incredible. I'm not negative on it. But when everybody goes into that, um, you do start getting a derangement of that, you get a derangement of talent. Everybody just wants to go like into that space. Um, unfortunately, the kind of intelligence of somebody like a Palmer Luckey or an Elon Musk, it doesn't come around every day. And so, if they end up going into, um, just being a quant, it's like, yes, they can make a ton of money. And I wouldn't begrudge anybody that does it, but boy, do I love to see people that actually physically make something. It's so incredible.

>> Yeah, World War II, for example, the United States and Japan both used their peacetime factories that were making automobiles, motorcycles, and they pivoted them to wartime use. But it took time to design weapon systems that could be made in that way. We're doing it before any potential conflict. It can be launched from the ground or from the air or from sea. Actually, we recently showed it doing a ground launch, uh, that we paid for that demonstration ourselves. But you can also launch these out of, for example, cargo aircraft. I can put them into a dispenser so that even airplanes that aren't military aircraft, I can load this in and I can push them out the side of the aircraft, and then the dispenser goes, turns your whole cargo aircraft fleet into part of your long-range weapons strategy. This is designed to scare China into not taking action on Taiwan. It is, it has a very specific purpose. It's much less expensive than a conventional missile because of everything I've just talked about. Also, because they reuse a lot of components. For example, this and this use the same actuator motors to steer the fin.

>> I'm, uh, I worry for his safety. I worry for Elon's safety. Like, these are the guys that if you're like, "Oh, I don't have to take out a whole lot of people. I just need to take out these singular personalities." I mean, what he's had to push back against when, like, at the height of woke, he was saying that he was building weapons for the US military, people lost their [ __ ]. Uh, some of his political, um, stances is what got him kicked out of, uh, Meta, which ended up being for the better. But, um, yeah, so, man, keep that man safe.

>> Keep that man safe.

>> You saw China recreated the landable locket.

>> Oh, listen. Elon is always very honest about China. He's like, "Do not sleep on China. They have some of the most extraordinary engineers. They have a lot of very intelligent people. They are working very hard." China has a, like, call it, 1950s through '80s vision of themselves the way that America did, where we are the best. We make things better than anybody else. There's nothing we can't do. "We're not doing this because it is easy. We are doing it because it's hard." Like, man, say what you will, but when, imagine being starved to death systematically by bad leadership for decades. You're watching, um, your kids die. You're watching your friends die. You barely stay alive, but you make it to the other side. And that [ __ ] guy that was starving everybody to death, he finally dies. And the guy that takes his place says, "We're going to stop starving people to death. We're going to go to free markets." Dude, imagine like the just sense of like, "No one's going to stop me. I'm never going to be in that position again. Like, we're going to build and build and do great things. We were held down for so long." And so there's this sense of like this pent-up steam in the system that finally got unleashed, and people just went crazy building. You can say they overbuilt, but it's still extraordinary. What China did is unprecedented in human history. They are a worthy adversary. And people that, uh, try to make light of them or say, "Oh, they just steal whatever." Listen, man. These guys are incredible. So, yeah, don't sleep on them. It's very interesting to hear Palmer. It's very in keeping with his personality, but to just say out loud, "This is designed specifically to scare China off of making a move on Taiwan." Yo, damn. There it is.

>> All right. And, um, RZ gone wrong. Um, a senior Army nuclear scientist was trying to bag something and he was like, "Hey girl, I got these nuclear secrets for you.

>> You want to come back to my hotel?"

>> I heard people, you know, tricking with money. I heard people offering purses and vacations and trips. I never heard people offer nuclear secrets. So, that might have been his in. I don't know. That might have been his thing.

>> Bro.

>> With oversight of America's nuclear arsenal has been placed on administrative leave by the Pentagon and may face criminal prosecution following a video sting operation by the O'Keefe Media Group. Newsmax Chief Washington Correspondent James Rosen is joining us now with a look at the comments caught on tape that landed this official in hot water. Good afternoon, James.

>> Bianca, good afternoon to you. A spokesperson for War Secretary Pete Hegsef referred Newsmax to a statement that the Army issued yesterday. It confirmed that nuclear scientist Andrew Hug, the Army's branch chief for chemical nuclear shity, a post focused on the safety and security of the Army's chemical and nuclear weapons components, has indeed been placed on leave pending additional investigation. In a pair of meetings in noisy restaurant settings with an unidentified woman who, it turns out, was employed by the O'Keefe Group and who was surreptitiously recording the encounters, Hug appears to divulge classified information in a range of areas from ongoing use of nerve agents to war planning in Iran. Two segments of the video apparently capture Hug disclosing to his young female interlocutor at least four locations of underground nuclear missiles and critical aspects of the launch process under which they could be fired off in the event of a nuclear conflict.

>> It, it is, uh, it is a source of never-ending amusement how easily manipulated men are with sex. I mean, it's absolutely hysterical. This is one of those where I really try to get people to understand you're having a biological experience, and when you lose sight of that, you lose sight of it at your own peril. Um, it is my understanding that in the CIA, they actually will just say nakedly to somebody, "If a young woman comes up to you and starts flirting with you, the odds are that you're being, um, groomed into something because you're not attractive enough for that to happen." They just say it straight to your face. Like, guys, please, for the love of God, do not be this easy, uh, to manipulate. It is wild. And listen, I get it. I have, uh, especially when I was young, boy, oh boy, does an attractive woman just reach inside your brain and squeeze something. But, man, you've got to stay sober, gents. You've got to stay sober. This is just wild.

>> Somebody in chat said, "The first time I went out out of the country, they told me, 'Be wary of hot chicks that want to talk to you like randomly on the street.'" The same models.

>> I don't understand. Like, listen, we all think well of ourselves, I'm sure. But God, in this day and age, you've got to be so paranoid.

>> So paranoid. This is just

>> Hilarious. Even those nuclear secrets.

>> Yeah.

>> Sheesh.

>> Between, yeah, between the briefing and the loud stuff, it's always so hard to hear these things. You a message, a launch message. She knocks in your door, goes, "Here you go." She gives you a launch message on a box of cookies. She wrote it down. If you can, if it passes all the checks, go.

>> Yeah.

>> Um, he was like, "Yeah, here, here, here."

>> This is the process. Wow.

>> I'm important girl.

>> That's so wild. It's hilarious.

>> Um, it's one of those things though, like, it's, it's ironic. It's funny. We can like just about it, but this is a nuclear secret. If somebody was listening, this could be trapped. So, to your point earlier, where sleeper agents are everywhere, who knows how many of these things aren't being recorded by James O'Keefe, you know what I mean? How many of these conversations are happening with these sleepers and with these spies and these alleged honeypot assets and things like that around the world, not even just in America? So, it's easy, this, it's, um, interesting to see this level of warfare that doesn't take place on a battlefield or behind a computer screen.

>> That's a really good point, man. I think that, so when I was growing up in the '80s, everybody was hyper-aware that we had spies in Russia. Russia had spies here, and that you were always playing a cat-and-mouse game. We were trying to find them, but you had to be like eternally vigilant. We've completely lost that sense, which is crazy because I think it's probably way more now than it ever was between the tensions with China, the tensions with Iran, uh, still tensions with Russia, that people really ought to be on their guard. If you have anything to do with anything that might be useful in one of those conflicts, Jesus, man, like you just need to assume that that's going to be, they're going to try to blackmail you. It's almost always something with sex. And, uh, they're going to try to send either a beautiful young woman or a beautiful young man, if that's your stick. And that's how they're going to get you. And then, ladies, I will tell you, it's going to be companionship. It's going to be the guy that like hears and understands and yada, yada. So, uh, man, everybody just needs to be super paranoid. We, we are at a time of massive, uh, geopolitical, um, instability, heightened tensions. Like, if you have information that could be useful, someone somewhere is likely going to try to get it, just as we are doing in their countries. So, yeah, I don't understand why people aren't more on their guard. But here we are. These videos from James O'Keefe, shout out to James O'Keefe, they just keep pouring out, whether it's about fraud, um, election tampering, now apparently nuclear secrets. You can just get everybody to confess. It's crazy.

>> Um, and then last thing, this is Odyssey week. The Odyssey is dropping this weekend. There's been a lot of beef, a lot of contention around this, uh, the production, the casting. I was just at, I did a Universal tour with the girls this weekend, and I like,

>> Went behind the set, and they showed me like the practical, uh, ship that they used. He actually built like an ocean set with the big blue backdrop.

>> The Trojan horse was out there, like, you know, Chris.

>> How'd you get the hookup that got you like

>> Studio? It was a studio tour that they kind of drove around. Yeah. Right.

>> Got it. I thought you were, they just didn't go with you on that.

>> Oh, no.

>> That's what you're saying. You said I went on.

>> Oh, yeah. Like, well, us, we were,

>> Got it. Got it. Got it. Okay. I queued off the wrong word there. I was like, "Oh, [ __ ], like, you know, a guy who knows a guy. I'll be right back. Stay here. Go play it."

>> Um, no. But I say all that to say is that while he's getting a lot of backlash for the casting, I'm team never bet on Nolan. Like,

>> Never bet on, never bet against. Never bet against. I must say he made like half a bad movie in his career. So, I don't know if your team. I don't know. You've been on the other side of.

>> I'm wait and see, man. I think people are crazy on this one. So, first of all, I'm not weird about race swapping. I get why people don't like it. If you did, um, uh, Black Panther 3 or 4, or whatever we're on, and all of a sudden T'Challa was white, people would lose their [ __ ] minds. So, I get it. It's going to be a thing for some people. It's just not a thing for me. So, I'm not weird about that. If they had put an, I would be weird if they put an unattractive woman in the role. So, if they do something to make her unattractive, 'cause she's supposed to be the face that launched a thousand ships. Now, if you make her hot, and she's like, "Yeah, I get why somebody would go fight for her."

>> Tom, as a, like, individual person, does not care whether that person is race-swapped. That's not going to be a popular internet opinion. But then I've also heard that, um, you've got, not, not you've got, I'm in a private chat with people that are well-connected that, um, are obsessed with films, and one of them got an early screening, and he was like, "Dude, this movie is so good, like,

>> People are going to lose their minds. One of Nolan's best, like, it's just going to absolutely smash." So, I was like, "Oh, [ __ ]." So, for me, after that, I was like, "Okay, I really want to see it. I'm optimistic." It'll be interesting to see because there is so much backlash,

>> Uh, from people that think that, you know, the race-swapping thing is just, you're just now in the modern message and all that. And I guess the version of the Odyssey that it's based on is a very, like, hyper left-leaning interpretation that sees Homer's problematic and all that [ __ ]. So, it's possible that there's enough like, just sort of DEI signals that if you either like that or don't care, that the movie just completely blows your mind, and that if you hate that and do care, you just can't get into the, like, movie of it all. And so, that'll be interesting to see. But like you, I wouldn't bet against Nolan. I think he's an extraordinary filmmaker. Even when he's not making sense, like Tenet was just confusing. I was like, "What the [ __ ] am I watching?" But at the same time, there was something about the rhythm and the visuals and all of that that I still was like, "There's a part of this that's cool," even though, for me, the narrative is an absolute train wreck.

>> So, on that, I would say I want to see it. I'll be very keen to see what happens. But I am admittedly very interested to see what happens in the public backlash. Will there be enough backlash that it can actually overcome a good movie that over time people are likely to be like, "If it's as good as this guy claims, that people will sort of let that go?" Hey, by the way, um, who has seen the movie Shawshank Redemption?

>> Me. Hopefully you guys. I can't. You guys are. Whoa, that's insane.

>> When I was little.

>> It's so. What is happening right now? I expected you guys to be like, "Me, me, chat, like, have you guys seen, uh, that movie?" It is one of my all-time favorites for sure. It is in contention with The Godfather. When you see like all-time best lists, people are like, "Godfather, Shawshank Redemption," like they both compete.

>> Uh, the Morgan Freeman character is race-swapped.

>> So, his name is Red because he's an Irish guy. And so in, it's a book.

>> But so is the, uh, Odyssey. So, it's like that one, not only did I not care even a little bit, Morgan Freeman is so good in that movie. Who would you put in that would be better? So, they make a joke about it in the movie. He's like, "Why did they call you Red?" He goes, "Maybe it's 'cause I'm Irish." And it's funny in the movie. In the book, it's just really an answer. And, yeah, I couldn't love it anymore. So, listen, I get it. There's like all this agenda. People are weird. There really is an agenda. People really are trying to use entertainment as a way to browbeat people with something. Uh, and so that's a very high-risk proposition. But yeah, I'm, for now, I default to it's going to be incredible. Can't wait to see it. Uh, as long as they showcase, um, Neith, is that her name?

>> Neith. Neith. Uh, anyway, if they showcase her beauty, because she certainly can look gorgeous, uh, then yeah, I won't have any beef buying into that. But if they do try to browbeat people with the message, I get why some people are just going to eject out.

>> Cool. All right, we got some super chats.

>> Yes, we do. Just one super chat. Uh, James Games says, "Oh, and this is Canada." So, Canadian PM Mark Carney is a WEF agent. He ran on being the only man who can handle Trump. Now, we have no trade deal. What we got is an ever-expanding policies to silence and censor us, propped up by state-funded media.

>> Yeah. Also, it's my understanding that Carney, his investments are primarily in the US. Yikes. So, you're basically betting against your own country because you kind of have to because the American stock market doing well, don't know that there are quite the returns in Canada.

>> So,

>> And that's it for super chats.

>> That's it. All right.

>> All right.

>> Boys and girls, we love you the most. Uh, we have another AI Masterclass coming up Wednesday, August 5th. We lied previously and said it wasn't until September. That was a lie. You can ignore that. It's coming up Wednesday, August 5th at 1 p.m. Pacific. It's free. The link to sign up is in the description. Uh, this is where I walk people through how to use AI to launch a company. So, definitely check it out. It's been a huge win for people that have taken it. Uh, it is very, very useful. All right, guys, we will see you on Wednesday. Have a great day. Peace.