Transcription
The decisive weapon this time, is it drones? Or is it not a more lethal weapon, like missiles or something even more greedy, like nuclear weapons?
No, China is already producing missiles. As far as I know, they currently have 300,000 missiles in hand. This does not include North Korea or Russia. [Cough] Therefore, these three or four countries might have up to 1 million nuclear warheads. But I still maintain that no country dares to use nuclear weapons.
North Korea is currently moving its artillery, armored vehicles, tanks, and 8 divisions of troops to the border, ready to attack South Korea immediately. Why did South Korea forge a defense cooperation with Japan? Because I believe South Korea and Japan already know they will surely have to fight Kim Jong-un.
[Music]
Kim Jong-un is also not ordinary, right? He's a hawk, not one for compromise, only attack. And Xi Jinping's conversation with Kim Jong-un has made other countries confident. Because, don't forget, North Korea's border is adjacent to China. Supplying provisions is very easy. And today, I will tell you, from what I know, China will use the same strategy as Iran: attack all US bases if a war breaks out. Because they have proven that Iran's decision to attack 27 US bases in 6 countries was correct.
Rangsri, what do you think China wants from Thailand if a war breaks out?
I believe China wants Thailand to refuse assistance to the US, whether it's refueling aircraft or ships, or sending reinforcements, or bringing in fresh water, or allowing troops to rest. Because China doesn't need us as a military base, as their missiles can reach their targets. But the US, coming from far away, needs military bases to support its forces, like they did in Vietnam. But this time, if the US decides to go to war with China, it will be tens of times larger than the Vietnam War, because China is no ordinary power.
At this moment, countries along the entire route, from the Andaman Sea to the Gulf of Thailand, to the South China Sea, will surely be involved. The question is how you will strategize for the country, how you will create balance. Because today, don't forget, we have also signed the Indo-Pacific treaty in 2062. The Indo-Pacific command is in Guam, Hawaii, with the forward base in Japan. There's no escaping this. We can see what's coming.
Yes.
Today, each side is preparing, each side is gathering its allies. Khun Gita, if you look at it optimistically, you might think nothing will happen and it will end. But when I analyze the situation, I analyze the worst-case scenario. But if you...
Yes.
...analyze the good situation, you only consider the good. You don't need to consider the best. But if you analyze the bad situation, you must consider the worst possible outcome. What will happen?
And what about the North Asian region near China, Khun Rangsri? North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan. Are there any unusual signs there now?
North Korea is currently moving its artillery, armored vehicles, tanks, and 8 divisions of troops to the border, ready to attack South Korea immediately. Khun Gita, these are unusual movements. Why did South Korea suddenly forge a defense cooperation with Japan? Because I believe South Korea and Japan already know they will surely have to fight Kim Jong-un. And Khun Gita, think about it, Kim Jong-un is also not ordinary, right?
Yes.
Simply put, he's a hawk, not one for compromise, only attack. And I see that Xi Jinping's conversation with Kim Jong-un has made Kim Jong-un confident. Because, don't forget, North Korea's border is adjacent to China. Supplying provisions is very easy. Therefore, North Korea doesn't have to worry about a shortage of weapons or supplies. And North Korea's manpower, don't forget, they have nearly 2 million active personnel, Khun Gita.
Yes.
These are warning signs. China will have 1 million drones this year. How scary do you think that is? I've known since 2068 that the Chinese government ordered it to be completed by 2070. That's why I told you, Khun Gita, that based on the news I've received and confirmed, it means China sees that a major war will occur in 2070, as I mentioned last time, remember?
But the '69 is a gradual escalation, meaning it's a continuous test of strength, a continuous test of weapons, adjusting plans, learning lessons to prepare for the major war that will erupt in the three regions I mentioned, if it truly happens.
Yes. And what you mentioned about China's drones, is the decisive weapon this time going to be drones? Or is it not a more lethal weapon, like missiles or something even more greedy, like nuclear weapons?
No, China is already producing missiles. As far as I know, they currently have 300,000 missiles in hand. China has 300,000 missiles in hand. This does not include North Korea, Russia, or Iran. Therefore, these three or four countries might have up to 1 million nuclear warheads. But not all of them are hypersonic, Khun Gita. They are missiles of long, medium, and short range. But I still maintain that no country dares to use nuclear weapons, even in a World War scenario. Because, don't forget, among the nine nuclear powers, plus Iran, that's ten countries. I believe Iran has them now. Now, suppose Israel decides to launch a strike into Iran. Do you think North Korea, Russia, China, and Pakistan would not retaliate against the other superpower? I don't believe so. Because, secondly, you are confident that it won't come to you. No one can guarantee that, right? Therefore, I say no one dares to use them. And oh, the nuclear warheads, if combined, there are thousands of them, Khun Gita. You can never defend against them. Your defensive capability might be for 10-20 missiles that are launched, but if you face 100 missiles, how will you defend? Because everyone has them, and especially with hypersonics, they fly into the atmosphere and descend vertically. The margin of error is centimeters. Who do you think would dare? I believe Trump wouldn't dare, Xi Jinping wouldn't dare, Putin wouldn't dare. I think even those who are reckless like Nerya Hu or Sin Do-eun wouldn't dare. Therefore, I am confident that no country will dare to use them. But it will be fought as a hypersonic war, a drone war primarily. With 1 million drones, do you think they can completely destroy US bases in the Southeast Asian region? With 200,000-300,000 missiles, do you think the Philippines would disappear in an instant? And today, I will tell you, from what I know, China will use the same strategy as Iran: attack all US bases if a war breaks out. Because they have proven that Iran's decision to attack 27 US bases in 6 countries was correct. Today, Putin made the wrong decision because Putin got bogged down in the areas he occupied, and thus was hit by 1,000 drones that attacked Moscow. Today, as I tell you, Putin's team, the opposition, even the opposition itself, has voted that Putin must step down. This time, it's about destroying all NATO bases, including all weapons. The first target is Poland, because NATO's major weapons are in Poland. This is even known publicly. Therefore, I see that today, we must look at all sides, we must prepare, whether it's the economy or geopolitics. Our country doesn't need to be involved with them, but our country, our leaders, our government, whatever they think to prevent our country from collapsing economically, especially in terms of energy shortages and food shortages. Khun Gita.
Yes.
We must be like an owl this time, and we must do our homework from now on. Time is up. We must stand on our own feet. Because, Khun Gita, think about it, if a third world war truly breaks out in the three regions, no one can help anyone. Khun Gita, it depends on what you do to be beneficial and what you can barter with them. Because I believe that in a world war, bartering is more important than buying and selling. I'm telling you, because everything will be scarce.
Yes.
But what I'm saying is, our country will definitely have an advantage in terms of food. I am confident that my Thailand is the world leader in food. Therefore, you must use your potential. We can't just sit around with our hands folded or argue within the country; it's useless. Today, we must look ahead. Khun Gita, in the next 5-6 months, is that a long time? Not long at all.
Not long. To build food sources, a food chain, in 5-6 months, we can build it. Planting rice also takes about 6 months, sugarcane, cassava, all of them. As for vegetables and fruits, they take no more than a month. We can create a food chain immediately.
Yes.
Therefore, we must consider this. We are one of the countries in the battlefield in the South China Sea, according to the Indo-Pacific strategy. We cannot remain idle. Or do we think nothing will happen? It will happen if it occurs, and I estimate the probability of it happening is higher than not happening, for the reasons I've stated: there are many superpowers, and they cannot negotiate.
In our world, in our world, which has been distant from world wars for 80-90 years, it's because America was the sole superpower, and no one dared to challenge it. But that's not the case today, Khun Gita.
Yes. But if a war is to break out, the initiator or the warring parties must be confident that they have sufficient strength and will win. Looking at the readiness of the superpowers, are they ready for war now?
I see the country that will initiate the war as America. Because, on the American side, you must understand that both economically and militarily, they are at a disadvantage from the military exercises of the past 4-5 years. And if they remain idle like this, they are just waiting to die. Because, as I said, this time it's a hybrid war, a real war in all aspects: information, economy, weapons. They have been unable to overcome each other for 5 years. And Khun Gita.
Yes.
But ultimately, it will lead to a breaking point because this kind of situation cannot continue. Both sides will be destroyed. Therefore, the side with fewer resources must strike first. Just like in World War II, Japan and Germany had to strike first because they were at a disadvantage at the time.
Yes.
Germany had economic problems, and Japan also had economic problems, so they had to strike first. But they lost because the war dragged on. This time, I believe the US side will strike first.
And do they have a chance to win?
I cannot answer that because it depends on whether, within the next 6 months, the US can counter the game. Because the US has already stated that the weapons they will create from now on will be cheap and effective, like those of China and Russia. Because the US has learned its lesson from the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Khun Gita. And don't forget, the US is the world leader in weapon production. But what the US lacks now is rare earth elements. Because for missiles and drones to be effective, they need rare earth elements to extend flight time, increase accuracy, and speed up movement. The 17th, 18th, these are all about rare earth elements, Khun Gita. Therefore, I believe that from now on, the US will be accelerating this greatly. Therefore, those 1,000 drones that attacked Moscow are interesting, Khun Gita. That today, Europe can develop. Because I believe these are not Ukrainian drones. They must be drones from one of the NATO countries, whether it's German drones, French drones, right? They must be from a few countries in NATO that have advanced weapon technology, right? And if Russia finds out and decides to let this continue, Russia will be finished too. Because they reached Moscow and destroyed apartments and oil depots, causing an energy crisis in Russia today. Therefore, Russia may not be able to remain idle if the war continues like this. The possibility in two scenarios. The possibility of scenario 1 is high. Why? Because if I were on the Chinese-Russian side, if I were to play, I would play before Trump, right? Because if Trump wins the election, it's easy. This time, he controls the Senate and the House, approving a long war. Khun Gita. Therefore, from now on, anything can happen. But what we are discussing today is that we are gathering the situation, we are gathering the reasons why it must happen. Viewers and listeners, listen and analyze. Don't believe me. Analyze the situation yourself. I have been gathering information for many days and I estimate that the probability of it happening is high.