Transcription
Sure. Are you in London, are you?
Yeah.
Ah, in the 30s now.
I'm sorry to. Well, I'm in Dubai, so 30s is cool for us. It's it's winter.
Fair enough.
Well, it's a pleasure to meet you. I um I want to ask you about a topic you've been covering for for for for very long, much longer than I've been covering it. Um, and that's everyone's trying to guess whether the war in Iran is over. And and usually what people point to is will Israel do this, will Israel do that, will Israel sabotage the negotiations, will Israel try to kill an IRGC leader or the Supreme Leader Mushtab Kame in the funeral right now? And it's like I'm not saying it's wrong to always look at Israel and there's reasons to do so, but I'm struggling to understand why. You know, I've spoken to Israeli officials, former prime ministers. I've even spoken to um Yishi who's very close to Beng supports Beng. I've never spoken to Ben um to try to really understand how they see things. And I'd love to get your thoughts, professor, on kind of two twofold question. Number one, are you worried that Israel can and would sabotage these negotiations or the current ceasefire or peace deal? And secondly, why um I'm very worried that Israel will uh do that because it always does it. Uh if we go by past performance uh Israel has tried successfully mostly uh to stop any negotiation for a long-term arrangement um peace agreement ceasefire doesn't matter what you call it they uh act against it so um past experience points out that that's the first thing they will do um the American uh presidency has not normally allowed Israel to do whatever it wants. Uh but since um Trump number one presidency um there is a a special relationship and um you know it seems that Trump is even less likely than Biden and Biden was um you know a difficult one um to uh actually control Israel. Um in a sense now we are at a at a point uh that will tell us in the next two or three weeks um if the 60-day uh ceasefire will come to an end uh before the time that is allowed it.
U now first of all Israel cannot actually exist without war. Um Israel alone started more wars than the UN countries put together. Um this is quite an incredible record, but um in Israel it's not seen to be unusual. Um normally um in the last few years um the polls looking at how many people in Israel support any of the six wars they were involved in in the last year and a bit. Um it's in the 90s uh sometimes in the high 90s. So um the Israelis support war whatever comes. Now just to remind you uh in 2023 before the 7th of October there were nine months that um Israel was so divided, people thought there will be a civil war. Um the the division actually was uh straight in the middle. About 50% supported Netanyahu and and his judicial coup and about 50% uh were totally opposed and there was no one in the middle. So uh when um the 7th of October happened, Netanyahu saw the best solution um you know um at hand. Um the the war united war always unites Israel. Uh there are countries that use the same machinery but there are very few of them and uh none of them um you know has a population that supports war by more than 90%. So Netanyahu knew that the only way to unite Israelis um in 2023 was an endless war and this is what he has got. Um he hasn't ended the war in Gaza. He hasn't ended the war in Lebanon. Definitely didn't end the war uh with Iran or Yemen or Syria. I mean all these are open files and um when necessary he can dip in and out of those.
Um now the other reason that Israel is involved in so many wars is um simply money. Uh the Israeli military-industrial complex is one of the largest in the world. Uh it is selling to more than 160 countries of the 194 members of the UN. And this is not just about money, but it's about political control. Because if you are a country that buys arms from Israel, you are totally unlikely to vote against it in the UN machinery because uh you would lose u the um you would lose the contract. Um they would actually not sell you spares etc. So if you are thinking about um signing a contract with Israel for any uh military equipment, it means that you already given up any political um sanction um that might happen. You you're not going to support any sanction against Israel. So the MIC though the the um the the weapons industry in Israel is the most important uh political tool as well as being the main income that Israel as a country is earning.
Um there is also um a very simple reason why those wars cannot end. If you've got an MIC that size um you've got to have >> as in military industrial >> military-industrial complex. Yeah. So, um you need to have a laboratory um like Gaza or Lebanon or both or Iran as well, you know. So, basically um endless war is actually the testing uh and trying out um new weapons and then they are tried and tested um which is uh what Israel is selling its arms as. Tried and tested. tried and tested on women, children, men, and sometimes even soldiers on the other side. Though Israel doesn't fight soldiers very many times, I'm sure you've noticed. Um most of the actions are against civilians, uh their homes, their hospitals, their schools. Um you know the first thing they did um after killing um Ayat um in uh on the 29th of February is um help the Americans um bombing civilians. Uh I think the school in Minab with an American missiles but Israel has killed its own Phil of Iranians and of course Lebanese. There's 5,000 people who died in Iran, uh 4,000 who died in Lebanon, and I'm not even talking about more than 100,000 who died in Gaza.
Um, so this is another area. Now, you know, the German chancellor said very clearly recently, uh, Israel, uh, must be supported because it is doing our dirty work for us. And that's what um the west thinks and not just thinks but actually access um the role of Israel. Israel is doing what the west can't afford to do directly. So they do it indirectly um through uh the Israelis. Uh for example in the case of Syria we've seen that um we've seen that in a number of uh places and of course in Iran. So um Israel is if you want the chaos engine of the west where chaos is necessary and the west is using chaos more than any other sector of humanity. Think about China. China is not building military um military camps everywhere. China is not taking over not even um Taiwan. Yeah. um one country after another. Uh they don't actually bomb and and and send missiles. So um you know this is quite unique to Israel and the United States this type of running um politically um you know running your goals politically.
Um, so um there is also um an important uh part um Zionism is um the main issue um that Zionism faces is a country which is too small for their um ambitions and and objectives. So Zionism demands that Israel will grow all the time. And uh just look at the few decades since 1967. Israel is growing all the time. Um not in a linear sense, but uh in fits and and bounds. Um so um you can't really grow a country um without wars. Um they are not talking about anything um to the Leitani River in Lebanon um belonging to Israel. Um they have um you know done the same in Syria after uh the fall of Assad for example. They've taken a few more hundreds of square miles. They've done of course the same in with Jordan with Egypt. So now they have the whole of Palestine and they are talking about new wars for example against Turkey. I mean would you believe it um totally mad uh but they are actually planning this.
So um >> but you've also got just on that on that point you've also got Erdogan saying he's going to march into Jerusalem. So Turkeykey's not kind of a dove. You got other countries like the UAE and the Gulf countries that are more friendly or neutral towards Israel and Israel is friendly and neutral towards them as well. But Turkeykey's also hostile towards Israel. So I just I don't want to discount that either. But I want to ask you, I'll let you comment on this, professor, but I do want to mention a actually I'll mention the news and I'll let you comment on the Turkey point because there something I've been discussing in the last few days as well and it's something that concerns me because I'm also concerned about the the rhetoric uh towards Turkey from Israel. But I also want to talk about a story that broke a few minutes ago on Axios. Um so the story's headline is by Barack the Barack Ravid, the same guy as always. Exclusive. Trump says Netanyahu quote knows who the boss is ahead of a possible White House visit. Trump told Axios that Netanyahu has requested a meeting at the White House, which could take place as early as next week after he returns from NATO. He says, quote, "We get along very good." Netanyahu knows who the boss is. According to a phone interview with Barack Ravid, Trump told Axious that the Iranians quote are begging to make a deal but said both sides decided to take a week off from the talks until the events around Kam's funeral and and in the meantime and and that in the meantime neither side will shoot on one another and quote there are there are all there one shot and we can take them all out but we are not going to do that because they would have nobody to negotiate with. He said that he's surprised to see some Iranians crying at the funeral saying he thought people hated Kame adding maybe it's fake tears and then he said quote many of Trump's and then Axia said many of Trump's closest advisers think that Netanyahu was wrong about everything in that piece the ones that matters is Netanyahu is going to visit Trump next week generally that's not a good indicator they were Netanyahu visits before this war with Iran um so that's I want to get your thoughts on that and and whether that we should be concerned about that meeting and whether you agree with Trump when he says Netanyahu knows who the boss is. Um and and also Axio has claimed that many of Trump's closest advisers think Netanyahu was wrong about everything.
So the the narrative has been that Trump and his administration are really upset at Netanyahu after how after this how this war turned out.
I'm sure they are upset at Netanyahu because he dragged them into a war in Iran that he told them will take four days. Um it took 40 days for them to uh not win the war but lose the war. Um he told them that after two days um the people in the streets will bring an end to Kam's regime. That never happened. Actually like in Israel the war uh in Iran united um Iranians um against the um against the US and Israel. So um everything that Netanyahu promised Trump and the Mossad promised Trump um proved to be um totally wrong. So I'm sure Trump is not looking forward to a visit from Netanyahu because as you pointed out uh Mario, this normally is um you know done when he needs to start a new war and that new war um people in Israel are saying could be against Iran. And um the um you know the defense minister in Israel has already gave that war a name. It's called blue blue and white. And um he said um a week ago, I've given the order to start the war um whenever u we're ready, whatever that means. Yeah. So um he's actually telling the Israelis that this is coming. Um normally I would take the Israelis at their word uh because they proved that when wars are involved um they always uh start them. So yes, you're right. If Netanyahu goes to Washington, we should be worried.
Secondly, um Netanyahu keeps saying Trump is the boss in different versions in different languages because he knows that Trump has got very thin skin and um you know, everyone around Trump tells him that Netanyahu behaves as the boss. So he needs to keep him sweet and that's the way of um Netanyahu um keeping him sweet. Now let's just remember that in the whole world there is nobody more capable of getting things out of Trump that he doesn't want to give than Netanyahu. He actually is a master of this art. No one had a chance to even come close to him. So um he knows that the best thing he can do is say Trump is the boss. Well, if Trump is the boss, um you know, why um is he being dragged into wars by Netanyahu all the time?
>> but that's because bosses but that's because bosses make a mistake. But the boss decided to end the war and he did end the war when Netanyahu didn't want to end the war. The boss did force Netanyahu to a ceasefire in Lebanon. when Netanyahu didn't want a ceasefire in Lebanon and now there's a negotiation with the Lebanese government, a deal where Israel eventually pulls out of Lebanese territory. These are all things that Netanyahu did not want.
>> No, he didn't want any of them. He didn't want to stop the war with Iran. But on the other hand, he didn't have intercepts. He ran out of intercepts as we know. And those intercepts are produced by Israel and by the US. And both of those um sources ran dry as as did um intercepts for um the GCC as well. So he couldn't actually continue the war if Trump didn't want him to do so. So if he now goes to see Trump, there is a change, there is a change.
>> What about Sorry, Professor. What about the Lebanon point? the Lebanon one doesn't need intercepts and he stopped bombing Beirut and South Lebanon. You know, the the bombing of South Lebanon has dropped by like 80 90%. Based on Trump's request, but they they tried their best to not abide by Trump. I think um I wasn't at a meeting with um between the the two um and they spoke on the phone many times about the the topic that you are um discussing and in the end Netanyahu had to pull out because Trump um actually told him that if he goes on attacking in Lebanon and therefore undermining the talks with Iran he will stop getting um materials from the United States. So there was no choice for Antonio. Um so the fact that he is coming to see Trump is because he's unhappy about this um you know stoppage of the wars everywhere and he wants to restart them. I mean let's forget and let's not forget the war in Gaza has never stopped. People die in Gaza every day. People die in the West Bank every day. So it's not about Gaza and the West Bank now. It is about I think Iran or Lebanon. That makes sense and he wants to persuade Trump to allow him to do it on his own maybe. Um I don't think Netanyahu can ever win against Iran. We've seen >> Yeah.
putting it but but I'm saying the the argument on so Trump's saying he's the boss and what he means by that is he calls the shots and I think we can't we don't really know what happens on these calls other than what they leak but we do know that Netanyahu did not want to end the war in Lebanon. Netanyahu would love to keep bombing bombing Beirut and and and advancing in Lebanon or at the minimum just keep bombing Lebanon yet he did stop. You've given the reason on what could have happened on the call for him to stop, the leverage that the levers that Trump has to be able to influence or force Netanyahu to do something. But doesn't that confirm the point that it is Trump that that makes the final decision?
Of course, he does because he actually supplies the defense for Israel and without that um you know, without that defense, Israel cannot start a war. And that is why Netanyahu goes to Washington because he's got something to negotiate with Trump. And I think that the reason is he's running um very low in the polls. Um if the polls are accurate, he's going to lose the election, which is he he has to have the election before October. Um so the elections in the US and in Israel are more or less at the same time. He wants to tell Trump that in order to win the election he needs a push either in Iran or in Lebanon um to persuade people and um I've I've mentioned the numbers of Israelis or percentage of Israelis supporting war. They support with more than 90% both of those wars Iran and Lebanon and the opposition which is actually leading the polls are saying that they will restart the war. So the only thing he can do is persuade Trump that a short spurt before the election is necessary for him to win that election. And Trump will listen to this, I'm afraid. And we might see a restart of one or the other of those fronts because otherwise there was no need for him.
>> But why would Trump why would Trump listen? Why are you so convinced that Trump Netanyahu will be able to again influence Trump this time around next week after the failure of this war and how pissed off Trump's administration will probably be with Netanyahu?
I'm sure they're pissed off and they're right to be and um I think that um he will do his best he I mean Netanyahu will do his best to mention to Trump that he also faces election not just Trump and um you know I I don't think that Trump wants to lose Netanyahu in that election for very complex reasons. So um it's I'm I'm not saying that I'm sure. I'm saying that that's what will happen. He will go there and try to persuade Trump. Now the last three years slightly less than three years since Trump was elected have proven that more more than not more you know more often than not he manages to persuade Trump. Trump, no one can tell what he's going to do in five minutes or say what he's going to say tomorrow. So um we can't really take Trump as a as a rock of Gibralar on this. And he has made a lot of noises about attacking Iran again about you know um again the stone age came up all those nonsense terms keep coming up. So I don't know if Trump has decided what he's going to do or somebody else is deciding it. We don't know if JD Vance was to go you know if if we will look at JD Vance and saying he is the one deciding he will say no to it and yeah Trump I don't know I don't think so actually.
>> Yeah fingers crossed. We'll see. I think every all lines are on next week and hopefully won't end up like previous meetings between Netanyahu and Trump. But professor, it was a pleasure to meet you. I appreciate you making the time and I'd love to continue having this conversation as this continues to develop. Thank you for your time.
Thank you very much. Thanks.
>> All right, guys. We'll be live again with Malcolm Nance in 25 minutes.