These Players Could Have MONSTER Fantasy Seasons (Breakouts)

This year's going to be nuts. And these players could go nuts this year in fantasy football.

Starting with Amaran Hampton. I mean, Hampton, if you don't know, probably my favorite player in the NFL. And I was the idiot who drafted him last year in the Flock League second round. Although at times last year, he was pretty good. And I will say the situation last year for Hampton was legitimately horrible, right? His first couple weeks in the NFL, obviously eight and three points his first two weeks last year when he came out. He played Vegas that second week and Max Crosby lived in the Chargers backfield. But he literally I needed six points to win my second week match up and I lost because of Amarian Hampton.

But after that, what did he do against Denver, a very good defense by the way, 25 points, 27 points against the Giants, 13 points and he did something, broke his floor, something out IR, he was out for a long time from weeks 6 through 13. But when you're looking at when he came back last year, I mean, he was 31 36% snap share and then 51 81% snap share and still had three double- digit games and only one of those games above a 60% snapshare, right? 14, 7, 16, and 20 points um against Houston. And so what we saw last year situationally from the Los Angeles Chargers was they were extremely injury riddle, especially on the offensive line. Amarian Hampton in terms of where he was getting hit, he was getting hit in the back field or close to the line of scrimmage almost every single time he touched the ball. You saw this again with Ashen Genty in Vegas as well. It was kind of the same thing, but I mean, you're looking at some of his uh some of his efficiency ratings here, they they're admittedly bad, right? Um and his run blocking rating, by the way, of of all running backs in the NFL was 43rd last year. 43rd. And so average defenders in the box 31st. Um so nothing crazy there. Stack front car carry rate was 25th. But when you're looking I mean even he had he was 11th in opportunity share last year. And uh I think that's only going to go up this year.

Now, a lot of people are concerned again because his true yards per carry 38th in the league. Again, I think that's because he had not a lot of run blocking. He had not a lot of offensive line last year. Yards per touch, he was 27th. Uh yards created per touch, though. This is a good metric that is basically beyond what was blocked per carry and per reception and generated by the runner after the first evaded tackle. He was 11th in that stat. And so, he does show that he can create yards after contact. And I think that's huge because last year the contact was coming pretty frequently in the back field. And so with Hampton, I think you look at Mike McDaniel coming in this year. Mike McDaniel obviously with Devon Han made Devon Chan and a fantasy superstar. They're very different running backs. I'll give you that for sure. There were games last year where Amaran Hampton he had, you know, seven targets, five targets, six targets, and eight targets. His last game that he was healthy for the regular season, he had eight receptions for 31 yards. You're talking about 11 extra fantasy points for Marian Hampton there. But the Mike McDaniel fits a pretty good one for Marian Hampton. And I do think Amarian Hampton can be used as a wide receiver. I think there are some or sorry as a receiving back. I think there are some people that look at Hampton and say this guy's purely a runner. He's purely, you know, red zone. He's purely whatever. But I think he's going to get the red zone touches and I think he's going to get a lot of the receiving work there and a lot of the the limited checkdowns that Justin Herbert does throw. He's about middle of the league in checkdowns. So you're talking about Omar Hampton getting the valuable touches. And so regardless of if he's super efficient, top 12 in efficiency or not, which by the way for a rookie doesn't necessarily matter all that much, you see rookie running backs be inefficient and then increase their efficiency their second year. Regardless of that, he's still going to be getting all of the touches that I think are valuable for fantasy football.

And so when you're talking about that, an an upgraded offensive line, a much better offensive system, Mike McDaniel obviously coming in and him fitting with Amaran Hampton very well, and Amaran Hampton just staying healthy for an entire season already having more experience under his belt. It's a perfect storm of things for Amaran Hampton to come in and and have kind of a breakout season. Now, where I've seen Amaran Hampton being drafted so far and it's early and we don't have a ton of like home league fantasy draft ADP, I've seen Amaran Hampton being drafted somewhere in the late second or at the 23 turn generally. Um, I think this is about where I would take Amaran Hampton as well. I tend to agree with the market on on where we have him ranked. I think in our initial running back rankings um that that we did, we had Amarian Hampton ranked at running back eight about uh and when you're talking about cross positionally, we have Amarian Hampton ranked somewhere in the 16 to 20 range, I think. And so I think it's pretty aggressive for a first year running back that, you know, we haven't even seen play an entire season. But like I said, I think the stars are aligning for an Amarian Hampton breakout season. I'm all in on the breakout season. There are some guys on this video we're not all in on their breakout season. We'll talk about will make the case for and against. Amarian Hampton's one where I think it's more likely than not that he's going to be break out this year and be a fairly solid fantasy football pick with the caveat that he's already being drafted like he's going to break out and so you're not looking at him being some league winner necessarily. I don't think I think he's just going to be a really good pick this year in fantasy football.

>> A lot of people are really excited about Luther Burton this year and I think it's very merited in a lot of ways. you're going to hear pretty much one stat that everyone's going to talk about, and that is his yards per route run, 2.79 yards per route run, which was third among wide receivers in the NFL in his rookie season. Um, and while we're not super big on uh just focusing on one stat, one efficiency metric and saying that's, you know, directly going to correlate to elite level production, I we didn't have enough of a sample size for that yards per route run metric to really re like it has for like Justin Jefferson his rookie season where you saw like, you know, three to four times the amount of work um his rookie season compared to Burton. What I want to do is I want to focus on some more metrics that help really back up this yards per route run metric and show you how effective Luther Burton was with the limited amount of opportunities that he got in his offense to show you like what his potential impact in that offense could be as his role continues to grow in in Ben Johnson's scheme. Uh seventh in yards per target. Um you're looking at first downs per route run. He was 12th among wide receivers. uh second in target separation and uh seventh in fantasy points per route run. QB rating per target for Luther Burton was fourth among wide receivers in the NFL. That means pretty much every time he's getting the ball, I mean he's a very very good and reliable consistent option for Caleb Williams. The all all of these metrics I think tell one story and that is without a shadow of a doubt 100% the upside for Luther Burton I I I think is pretty much the sky. I think the sky really is going to be the limit for him heading into his second year here.

Not to mention Ben Johnson speaking very high praise about Burton compared to what you saw I think him trying to temper expectations for him his rookie season. Um, I made a joke about like like Ben Johnson saying um, you know it's it's stock up. I'd be buying all this stock in Luther Burden and while I I kind of joke about hype and being like well what's he going to say like I'm not going to buy Luther Burden stock this year. It does matter that he's trying to highlight one specific player in his offense compared to the hype that you're seeing with you know everybody else there as I think there are a lot of Romo Dunay truthers. I think there's a lot of Coulson Leland truthers. And obviously Caleb Williams is we're hoping going to be able to support multiple of those receiving assets in that offense. But Luther Burton here, man, when you saw what he was able to do last season in a small sample size um towards the end of the year, very explosive, getting increased target volume week over week, going from five targets to six to seven to nine. Um had a couple good playoff showings as well. Uh, I think it really came to a head here in week 17 against San Fran where he had like eight nine targets for eight receptions, 138 yards and a touchdown. Um, the at like 17.2 yards per reception. I think you're seeing his big playability and even his presence down the field um being a a big surprise and something that I think could really raise his ceiling um here in in this offense. And in our in our initial reddraft rankings for this year, we have Luther Burton ranked in this massive tier in this big range of um guys who could finish literally as high as like a low and wide receiver one, high and wide receiver two all the way down to like a mid wide receiver three. And that I think is where you can get a lot of bang for your buck assets specifically at the wide receiver position. And Luther Burton could absolutely be one of those guys. Right now initially we have him at wide receiver 28. Um, and I could legitimately see him finishing as high as like the the wide receiver 13 to 16. Like you're you're you're talking about a guy who from a price point perspective since there are so many unknowns in that offense and since there is technically a lot of projection and what we see Luther Burton's potential being in 2026, that's resulting in him not being as expensive as he could honestly be considering what his potential upside is there. So, um, a lot of positive a lot of positive opportunities and outlooks for for Luther Burton, um, heading into this season. And I I think if you're really excited about him, it's very merited and and I'm super pumped to see um, what what's going to happen here in what is expected and projected to be one of the best and most productive offenses in the NFL.

We did just launch the season pass over on Flock Fantasy literally this week. Like, it's one day old. So, if you want to get full access, early access does get you some extra free stuff. So, you go over there. It's again $34 the entire season, but you're going to get our draft tool that we're coming out with. You're going to get our full rankings. You're going to get all the rankings and draft guides from all the other guys on the site. Free advice from Nathan and I personally. You can submit it to us on the site. And so, everything you need, one-stop shop, 30 bucks to win your fantasy football league. If you want to go check it out, supports domain. And also, again, it's the best deal in fantasy football. We didn't even raise the price this year. Just launched it. If you want to check it out, link is in the pin comment.

Not a lot of people are talking about Parker Washington. And truthfully, it's very hard to rank Parker Washington because when you're talking about ranking him, you're talking about ranking Brian Thomas Jr. and you're talking about ranking Jacobe Myers and potentially you're talking about ranking Travis Hunter as well. So, there's really four guys in this Jaguars offense. But the interesting thing about Parker Washington is down the stretch last year, obviously Travis Hunter was hurt. Parker Washington was the best wide receiver on the team. when you're looking at weeks 12 and on, really, he did miss a game against uh Indianapolis in week 14, but had 18 points uh in week 12 against Arizona, then three points, three and a half points against Tennessee, eight points against the New York Jets, and 26 points against Denver, 19 points against Indie, and 19 points against Tennessee to end the year. Not to mention, if you watched him during the playoffs, you'll remember the game against the Bills. He was probably their best wide receiver. I genuinely think Parker Washington was their best wide receiver down the stretch. He's 24 years old. He's played three years already in the NFL. This will be his fourth year and he's on an offense where Liam Cohen historically where Liam Cohen has been, he was in Tampa Bay before he went to Jacksonville. He has produced multiple fantasy relevant wide receivers on one team and I think that's not going to be I think it's going to happen again this year. You really have to kind of sort through the weeds when you're talking about is it going to be Jacob Myers, Parker Washington, Travis Hunter, Brian Thomas Jr. the again the end what makes Parker Washington super interesting here is that he was the best wide receiver last year. So, do we see some kind of coming out party? So far through OTAAS, we've heard a lot of positive buzz about Parker Washington as well when you're looking at where he's ranked here according to Flock Expert Consensus. I mean, he is the wide receiver of 48. He's behind multiple of his teammates. Brian Thomas is the wide receiver 29, right? Uh you he is you do have Travis Hunter behind him at wide receiver 53. Uh and then Jacobe Myers, the wide receiver 45. So, he's ranked third out of the four wide receivers that could produce there this year. He's the cheapest out of Brian Thomas and Jacobe Myers. And when all three of those guys were on the field at the end of last season, Parker Washington was the most productive and he looked like the best wide receiver. And so to me, it's all about price here. You can draft Brian Thomas wherever. You can draft Brian Thomas in the fifth, sixth, seventh round, wherever he's going to end up going this year when it kind of settles in. In my opinion, when I see that the best wide receiver at the end of last year is being drafted cheaper than all the other wide receivers on that team, I'm most likely to take a shot. It is admittedly a good offense to buy into because there's going to be a lot of fantasy production to go around there. I'm willing to take a shot on the cheapest guy. Parker Washington for me it just seems like a nice upside shot again where his value actually settles in overall fantasy football drafts. I mean right now you're talking about him going in like the ninth tenth round. I think it's a good shot there. You're talking about him maybe being the first guy off the bench. Uh he he's going anywhere from like right he's going around Ricky Pieraw Xavier Worthy uh Jell Robinson Josh Downs Romeo Dobs Matthew Golden. And I don't necessarily think he's underpriced. I just like the price relative to the potential payoff of having one of the top wide receivers in the Jaguars offense next year. And again, you could pick any of these Jaguars receivers and and make this, but this is specifically trying to find breakouts. And for Parker Washington, this would be his true breakout season. You saw him kind of break out at the end of last year. He was the wide receiver 27 last year. Right now, again, wide receiver 27 last year with the same exact room. And he's being he's being priced right now in fantasy football drafts at like wide receiver 45, wide receiver 48 prices. He finished 20 spots higher than that last year. Seems like a decent shot to take. I think Parker Washington could be a breakout candidate, but he definitely has an intriguing price for me to draft him in some of my fantasy football leagues this year.

>> Kenneth Walker is going to be our next guy here. I think one of the biggest winners um that we saw from offseason movement um has been Walker going from the situation in Seattle where he was constantly competing for snaps um w with Zack Charbanet um getting touchdowns taken away from him when he would take him all the way inside the 5yd line and then Zack Charbanet would fall in. It was kind of infuriating and now you're looking at there pretty much being no competition whatsoever in Kansas City. Not to mention you have Patrick Mahomes coming off the ACL. they're not going to be relying on his rushing capability uh whatsoever. I I don't think we would project this season at all. They're going to be pretty careful there. Um I I think you could see a lot of uh opportunity, a lot of work uh put on Walker's shoulders this season, more than we've ever seen in his career. I think the biggest question mark that you're going to have here for Walker is can he handle it? Not like, oh, can he, you know, be willing to take on that workload and be efficient and be effective when he gets those touches. We've seen in small sample sizes him get, you know, 20, 30 carries and be super productive with that opportunity. But can he handle it from a health perspective? This dude for the first four years of his career has not stayed healthy consistently and he hasn't ever gotten a bellcow workload consistently either. He's been banged up and gotten injured while playing alongside Zack Charbanet taking half of the snaps most of the time. Like it's it's absolutely maddening maddening here. Um- w with Walker, I I don't think again we don't have many questions about his upside. You you can you can look at his stats over the last couple of years and say, man, the the boom weeks are there, the volume is there, the touches are there, the carries are there. He finished as a Super Bowl MVP last year. But Seattle did move off from him for a reason. Not only did they not want to pay him, I think they have questions themselves potentially of his durability and consistency in that offense. And they just rode the high of Kenneth Walker being available there at the end of the year while they went on the Super Bowl run. they benefited from it and then they decided to move on and they decided to go get Jarian Price in the first round. Like there can be legitimate questions about Kansas City's decision to sign Walker and pay him the money that they decided to and depending on him being their Bellcow running back when we have never seen that in his career. And there is a significant injury yellow flag I would say borderline red flag here for him.

It depends on what price you're going to get Walker from the or Walker at though in your reddraft leagues though. And I I think if you're getting him in like the mid to late second round, that's where we're probably going to be a lot more hands off with Walker and say like, "Hey, I understand you want to select him there." And the upside is absolutely going to be there in that situation. But there are way too many question marks for me to take a shot on Kenneth Walker over someone like Saquon Barkley who's going to be going in the same range over somebody like Chase Brown who's going to be going in the same range, getting the same opportunity and the same touches. And we've seen that they can take on that workload and be consistently productive and not get constantly banged up all the time. If you're getting Kenneth Walker in like the more in like the early to mid- third round price range, that's where I'm more okay with you taking a shot on Walker. And again, we can fully admit and and fully understand what the potential is for a guy like this in a situation that I think is looking on the up with Venemy now as the play caller there instead of Matt Naggie. Um while also admitting as well that like hey this is something where we're going to be very very cautious. Um and even though we can be hopeful that he's going to have an awesome breakout year in his fifth year in the NFL, um I hope he doesn't get injured. I I hope he can play the the entire season and be healthy with essentially a doubled workload this season.

>> All right, so let's talk about Trevon Henderson and make the case for his breakout. And to be 100% honest with you, I have a hard time making this case. 12.1 fantasy points per game for Trayvon Henderson in his rookie year. Right now, he's being drafted uh right there at the 45 turn is where he's going. Right now, you're talking about Trayvon Henderson being ranked uh right there at running back 21 according to Flock Expert Consensus, which again puts him right there at the 45 turn. The problem with Trayvon Henderson is again 12.1 points per game in his rookie year was 24th. Um we're projecting him to take a small jump forward at his current price, but um not an astronomical jump. It just it's what stands out to me here is Trayvon Henderson last year uh averaging 12 points per game. You know, looking at the guys going around him, all of Josh Jacobs, Kyron Williams, Travis Tian, Cam Scagu, Cam Scaboo, and Bucky Irving average more points than Trayvon Henderson. DeAndre Swift is going below Trayvon Henderson and average more points. Jaylen Warren is going below Trayvon Henderson and average more points. But really, you just kind of have to ask the question about Trayvon Henderson's workload this year because Trayvon was 31st in opportunity share last year among all eligible running backs on a team where Raandre Stevenson really wasn't doing himself any favors to keep the lead back role there in New England long term. Uh the one thing you do have to kind of point to for and say maybe this is where he gets his breakout is from a receiving back standpoint, it wasn't terrible, right? It wasn't terrible. You're 23rd in targets, 20th in receptions. Um and he was fairly efficient as well. uh 18th in three yards per carry and 10th in in yards per touch. The number one thing here, two things here. Number one, in terms of run blocking rating among among all eligible running backs, Trayvon Henderson was first in the NFL. He had the best run blocking in the NFL. Okay. And so really the big thing here is snapshare and opportunity share. It it's it's all opportunity for Trayvon Henderson. 42nd in snapshare last year and 31st in opportunity share. If you think Trevon's going to get more opportunity this year, significantly more opportunity, you could see him potentially take a big jump. If he doesn't get more opportunity, he's almost certainly not going to take any jump at all. And the I think the I think that the uh I think the Patriots like uh Randre Stevenson more than anybody wants to care to admit. I think this was a blind spot even for us last year. Hindsight's obviously 2020, but I think this is a place where we were wrong.

When you're looking last year at where Trayvon Henderson actually excelled, um all the games where he had more than 15 points last year, um there was week week 10 he had 28 points versus Tampa Bay had two touchdowns. Week 11, 32 points versus the New York Jets, two touchdowns. Week 15 against Buffalo, 30 points. Two touchdowns. Uh and then Miami 17 points in week 18, two touchdowns. Okay, so what about the games where he scored one or zero touchdowns? 116 712 44 4 0 5 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 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This year's going to be nuts. And these players could go nuts this year in fantasy football. Starting with Amaran Hamton. I mean, Hamton, if you don't know, probably my favorite player in the NFL. And I was the idiot who drafted him last year in the Flock League second round. Although at times last year, he was pretty good. And I will say the situation last year for Hamton was legitimately horrible, right? His first couple weeks in the NFL, obviously eight and three points his first two weeks last year when he came out. He played Vegas that second week and Max Crosby lived in the Chargers backfield. But he literally I needed six points to win my second week match up and I lost because of Amarian Hamton. But after that, what did he do against Denver, a very good defense by the way, 25 points, 27 points against the Giants, 13 points and he did something, broke his floor, something out IR, he was out for a long time from weeks 6 through 13. But when you're looking at when he came back last year, I mean, he was 31 36% snap share and then 51 81% snap share and still had three double- digit games and only one of those games above a 60% snapshare, right? 14, 7, 16, and 20 points um against Houston. And so what we saw last year situationally from the Los Angeles Chargers was they were extremely injury riddle, especially on the offensive line. Amarian Hamton in terms of where he was getting hit, he was getting hit in the back field or close to the line of scrimmage almost every single time he touched the ball. You saw this again with Ashen Genty in Vegas as well. It was kind of the same thing, but I mean, you're looking at some of his uh some of his efficiency ratings here, they they're admittedly bad, right? Um and his run blocking rating, by the way, of of all running backs in the NFL was 43rd last year. 43rd. And so average defenders in the box 31st. Um so nothing crazy there. Stack front car carry rate was 25th. But when you're looking I mean even he had he was 11th in opportunity share last year. And uh I think that's only going to go up this year. Now, a lot of people are concerned again because his true yards per carry 38th in the league. Again, I think that's because he had not a lot of run blocking. He had not a lot of offensive line last year. Yards per touch, he was 27th. Uh yards created per touch, though. This is a good metric that is basically beyond what was blocked per carry and per reception and generated by the runner after the first evaded tackle. He was 11th in that stat. And so, he does show that he can create yards after contact. And I think that's huge because last year the contact was coming pretty frequently in the back field. And so with Hamton, I think you look at Mike McDaniel coming in this year. Mike McDaniel obviously with Devon Han made Devon Chan and a fantasy superstar. They're very different running backs. I'll give you that for sure. There were games last year where Amarian Hamton he had, you know, seven targets, five targets, six targets, and eight targets. His last game that he was healthy for the regular season, he had eight receptions for 31 yards. You're talking about 11 extra fantasy points for Marian Hamton there. But the Mike McDaniel fits a pretty good one for Marian Hamton. And I do think Amarian Hamton can be used as a wide receiver. I think there are some or sorry as a receiving back. I think there are some people that look at Hamton and say this guy's purely a runner. He's purely, you know, red zone. He's purely whatever. But I think he's going to get the red zone touches and I think he's going to get a lot of the receiving work there and a lot of the the limited checkdowns that Justin Herbert does throw. He's about middle of the league in checkdowns. So you're talking about Omar Hamton getting the valuable touches. And so regardless of if he's super efficient, top 12 in efficiency or not, which by the way for a rookie doesn't necessarily matter all that much, you see rookie running backs be inefficient and then increase their efficiency their second year. Regardless of that, he's still going to be getting all of the touches that I think are valuable for fantasy football. And so when you're talking about that, an an upgraded offensive line, a much better offensive system, Mike McDaniel obviously coming in and him fitting with Amarian Hamton very well, and Amarian Hamton just staying healthy for an entire season already having more experience under his belt. It's a perfect storm of things for Amarian Hamton to come in and and have kind of a breakout season. Now, where I've seen Amarian Hamton being drafted so far and it's early and we don't have a ton of like home league fantasy draft ADP, I've seen Amarian Hamton being drafted somewhere in the late second or at the 23 turn generally. Um, I think this is about where I would take Amarian Hamton as well. I tend to agree with the market on on where we have him ranked. I think in our initial running back rankings um that that we did, we had Amarian Hamton ranked at running back eight about uh and when you're talking about cross positionally, we have Amarian Hamton ranked somewhere in the 16 to 20 range, I think. And so I think it's pretty aggressive for a first year running back that, you know, we haven't even seen play an entire season. But like I said, I think the stars are aligning for an Amarian Hamton breakout season. I'm all in on the breakout season. There are some guys on this video we're not all in on their breakout season. We'll talk about will make the case for and against. Amarian Hamton's one where I think it's more likely than not that he's going to be break out this year and be a fairly solid fantasy football pick with the caveat that he's already being drafted like he's going to break out and so you're not looking at him being some league winner necessarily. I don't think I think he's just going to be a really good pick this year in fantasy football.

A lot of people are really excited about Luther Burton this year and I think it's very merited in a lot of ways. You're going to hear pretty much one stat that everyone's going to talk about, and that is his yards per route run, 2.79 yards per route run, which was third among wide receivers in the NFL in his rookie season. And while we're not super big on just focusing on one stat, one efficiency metric and saying that's, you know, directly going to correlate to elite level production, we didn't have enough of a sample size for that yards per route run metric to really re like it has for like Justin Jefferson his rookie season where you saw like, you know, three to four times the amount of work his rookie season compared to Burton. What I want to do is I want to focus on some more metrics that help really back up this yards per route run metric and show you how effective Luther Burton was with the limited amount of opportunities that he got in his offense to show you like what his potential impact in that offense could be as his role continues to grow in in Ben Johnson's scheme. Seventh in yards per target. You're looking at first downs per route run. He was 12th among wide receivers. Second in target separation and seventh in fantasy points per route run. QB rating per target for Luther Burton was fourth among wide receivers in the NFL. That means pretty much every time he's getting the ball, I mean he's a very very good and reliable consistent option for Caleb Williams. All of these metrics I think tell one story and that is without a shadow of a doubt 100% the upside for Luther Burton. I think is pretty much the sky. I think the sky really is going to be the limit for him heading into his second year here.

Not to mention Ben Johnson speaking very high praise about Burton compared to what you saw. I think him trying to temper expectations for him his rookie season. I made a joke about like Ben Johnson saying, you know, it's stock up. I'd be buying all this stock in Luther Burton and while I kind of joke about hype and being like, well, what's he going to say? Like, I'm not going to buy Luther Burton stock this year. It does matter that he's trying to highlight one specific player in his offense compared to the hype that you're seeing with you know, everybody else there. As I think there are a lot of Romeo Doubs truthers, I think there's a lot of Cole Beasley truthers. And obviously Caleb Williams is, we're hoping, going to be able to support multiple of those receiving assets in that offense. But Luther Burton here, man, when you saw what he was able to do last season in a small sample size towards the end of the year, very explosive, getting increased target volume week over week, going from five targets to six to seven to nine. Had a couple good playoff showings as well. I think it really came to a head here in week 17 against San Fran where he had like eight, nine targets for eight receptions, 138 yards and a touchdown. At like 17.2 yards per reception. I think you're seeing his big playability and even his presence down the field being a big surprise and something that I think could really raise his ceiling here in this offense. And in our initial redraft rankings for this year, we have Luther Burton ranked in this massive tier in this big range of guys who could finish literally as high as like a low-end wide receiver one, high-end wide receiver two, all the way down to like a mid-wide receiver three. And that I think is where you can get a lot of bang for your buck assets, specifically at the wide receiver position. And Luther Burton could absolutely be one of those guys. Right now, initially, we have him at wide receiver 28. And I could legitimately see him finishing as high as like the wide receiver 13 to 16. Like, you're talking about a guy who from a price point perspective, since there are so many unknowns in that offense and since there is technically a lot of projection and what we see Luther Burton's potential being in 2026, that's resulting in him not being as expensive as he could honestly be considering what his potential upside is there. So, a lot of positive, a lot of positive opportunities and outlooks for Luther Burton heading into this season. And I think if you're really excited about him, it's very merited and I'm super pumped to see what's going to happen here in what is expected and projected to be one of the best and most productive offenses in the NFL.

We did just launch the season pass over on Flock Fantasy literally this week. Like, it's one day old. So, if you want to get full access, early access does get you some extra free stuff. So, you go over there. It's again $34 the entire season, but you're going to get our draft tool that we're coming out with. You're going to get our full rankings. You're going to get all the rankings and draft guides from all the other guys on the site. Free advice from Nathan and I personally. You can submit it to us on the site. And so, everything you need, one-stop shop, 30 bucks to win your fantasy football league. If you want to go check it out, supports DM. And also, again, it's the best deal in fantasy football. We didn't even raise the price this year. Just launched it. If you want to check it out, link is in the pinned comment.

Not a lot of people are talking about Parris Campbell. And truthfully, it's very hard to rank Parris Campbell because when you're talking about ranking him, you're talking about ranking Michael Thomas and you're talking about ranking Chris Olave and potentially you're talking about ranking Rashid Shaheed as well. So, there's really four guys in this Saints offense. But the interesting thing about Parris Campbell is down the stretch last year, obviously Michael Thomas was hurt. Parris Campbell was the best wide receiver on the team. When you're looking at weeks 12 and on, really, he did miss a game against the Falcons in week 14, but had 18 points in week 12 against the Rams, then three points, three and a half points against the Panthers, eight points against the Buccaneers, and 26 points against the Falcons, 19 points against Carolina, and 19 points against Tampa Bay to end the year. Not to mention, if you watched him during the playoffs, you'll remember the game against the Eagles. He was probably their best wide receiver. I genuinely think Parris Campbell was their best wide receiver down the stretch. He's 24 years old. He's played three years already in the NFL. This will be his fourth year and he's on an offense where Derek Carr historically where Derek Carr has been, he was in Oakland before he went to New Orleans. He has produced multiple fantasy relevant wide receivers on one team and I think that's not going to be I think it's going to happen again this year. You really have to kind of sort through the weeds when you're talking about is it going to be Chris Olave, Parris Campbell, Rashid Shaheed, Michael Thomas, the again the end what makes Parris Campbell super interesting here is that he was the best wide receiver last year. So, do we see some kind of coming out party? So far through OTAs, we've heard a lot of positive buzz about Parris Campbell as well. When you're looking at where he's ranked here according to PFF, I mean, he is the wide receiver 48. He's behind multiple of his teammates. Chris Olave is the wide receiver 12, right? You do have Rashid Shaheed behind him at wide receiver 53. And then Michael Thomas, the wide receiver 45. So, he's ranked third out of the four wide receivers that could produce there this year. He's the cheapest out of Chris Olave and Michael Thomas. And when all three of those guys were on the field at the end of last season, Parris Campbell was the most productive and he looked like the best wide receiver. And so to me, it's all about price here. You can draft Chris Olave wherever. You can draft Chris Olave in the second, third, fourth round, wherever he's going to end up going this year when it kind of settles in. In my opinion, when I see that the best wide receiver at the end of last year is being drafted cheaper than all the other wide receivers on that team, I'm most likely to take a shot. It is admittedly a good offense to buy into because there's going to be a lot of fantasy production to go around there. I'm willing to take a shot on the cheapest guy. Parris Campbell for me it just seems like a nice upside shot again where his value actually settles in overall fantasy football drafts. I mean right now you're talking about him going in like the ninth tenth round. I think it's a good shot there. You're talking about him maybe being the first guy off the bench. He he's going around players like Michael Gallup, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, Rashid Shaheed. And I don't necessarily think he's underpriced. I just like the price relative to the potential payoff of having one of the top wide receivers in the Saints offense next year. And again, you could pick any of these Saints receivers and make this, but this is specifically trying to find breakouts. And for Parris Campbell, this would be his true breakout season. You saw him kind of break out at the end of last year. He was the wide receiver 27 last year. Right now, again, wide receiver 27 last year with the same exact room. And he's being priced right now in fantasy football drafts at like wide receiver 45, wide receiver 48 prices. He finished 20 spots higher than that last year. Seems like a decent shot to take. I think Parris Campbell could be a breakout candidate, but he definitely has an intriguing price for me to draft him in some of my fantasy football leagues this year.

Kenneth Walker is going to be our next guy here. I think one of the biggest winners from offseason movement has been Walker going from the situation in Seattle where he was constantly competing for snaps with Zach Charbonnet, getting touchdowns taken away from him when he would take them all the way inside the 5-yard line and then Zach Charbonnet would fall in. It was kind of infuriating. And now you're looking at there pretty much being no competition whatsoever in Kansas City. Not to mention you have Patrick Mahomes coming off the ACL. They're not going to be relying on his rushing capability whatsoever. I don't think we would project that this season at all. They're going to be pretty careful there. I think you could see a lot of opportunity, a lot of work put on Walker's shoulders this season, more than we've ever seen in his career. I think the biggest question mark that you're going to have here for Walker is can he handle it? Not like, oh, can he, you know, be willing to take on that workload and be efficient and be effective when he gets those touches. We've seen in small sample sizes him get, you know, 20, 30 carries and be super productive with that opportunity. But can he handle it from a health perspective? This dude for the first four years of his career has not stayed healthy consistently and he hasn't ever gotten a bell cow workload consistently either. He's been banged up and gotten injured while playing alongside Zach Charbonnet, taking half of the snaps most of the time. It's absolutely maddening. With Walker, I don't think again we have many questions about his upside. You can look at his stats over the last couple of years and say, man, the boom weeks are there, the volume is there, the touches are there, the carries are there. He finished as a Super Bowl MVP last year. But Seattle did move off from him for a reason. Not only did they not want to pay him, I think they have questions themselves potentially of his durability and consistency in that offense. And they just rode the high of Kenneth Walker being available there at the end of the year while they went on the Super Bowl run. They benefited from it and then they decided to move on and they decided to go get Jalen Wright in the first round. There can be legitimate questions about Kansas City's decision to sign Walker and pay him the money that they decided to and depend on him being their bell cow running back when we have never seen that in his career. And there is a significant injury yellow flag, I would say borderline red flag here for him.

It depends on what price you're going to get Walker at though in your redraft leagues. And I think if you're getting him in like the mid to late second round, that's where we're probably going to be a lot more hands off with Walker and say, "Hey, I understand you want to select him there." And the upside is absolutely going to be there in that situation. But there are way too many question marks for me to take a shot on Kenneth Walker over someone like Saquon Barkley, who's going to be going in the same range, over somebody like Chase Brown, who's going to be going in the same range, getting the same opportunity and the same touches. And we've seen that they can take on that workload and be consistently productive and not get constantly banged up all the time. If you're getting Kenneth Walker in like the early to mid-third round price range, that's where I'm more okay with you taking a shot on Walker. And again, we can fully admit and fully understand what the potential is for a guy like this in a situation that I think is looking on the up with Mahomes now as the quarterback there instead of Geno Smith. While also admitting as well that like, hey, this is something where we're going to be very, very cautious. And even though we can be hopeful that he's going to have an awesome breakout year in his fifth year in the NFL, I hope he doesn't get injured. I hope he can play the entire season and be healthy with essentially a doubled workload this season.

All right, so let's talk about Tyjae Spears and make the case for his breakout. And to be 100% honest with you, I have a hard time making this case. 12.1 fantasy points per game for Tyjae Spears in his rookie year. Right now, he's being drafted right there at the 45 turn is where he's going. Right now, you're talking about Tyjae Spears being ranked right there at running back 21 according to PFF, which again puts him right there at the 45 turn. The problem with Tyjae Spears is again, 12.1 points per game in his rookie year was 24th. We're projecting him to take a small jump forward at his current price, but not an astronomical jump. It just, it's what stands out to me here is Tyjae Spears last year averaging 12 points per game. You know, looking at the guys going around him, all of Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams, James Cook, Travis Etienne, and Breece Hall average more points than Tyjae Spears. David Montgomery is going below Tyjae Spears and averages more points. Javonte Williams is going below Tyjae Spears and averages more points. But really, you just kind of have to ask the question about Tyjae Spears' workload this year because Tyjae was 31st in opportunity share last year among all eligible running backs on a team where Derrick Henry really wasn't doing himself any favors to keep the lead back role there in Tennessee long term. The one thing you do have to kind of point to for and say maybe this is where he gets his breakout is from a receiving back standpoint, it wasn't terrible, right? It wasn't terrible. You're 23rd in targets, 20th in receptions. And he was fairly efficient as well, 18th in yards per carry and 10th in yards per touch. The number one thing here, two things here. Number one, in terms of run blocking rating among all eligible running backs, Tyjae Spears was first in the NFL. He had the best run blocking in the NFL. Okay. And so really the big thing here is snap share and opportunity share. It's it's all opportunity for Tyjae Spears. 42nd in snap share last year and 31st in opportunity share. If you think Tyjae's going to get more opportunity this year, significantly more opportunity, you could see him potentially take a big jump. If he doesn't get more opportunity, he's almost certainly not going to take any jump at all. And I think the Patriots like Rhamondre Stevenson more than anyone wants to admit. I think this was a blind spot even for us last year. Hindsight's obviously 2020, but I think this is a place where we were wrong.

When you're looking last year at where Tyjae Spears actually excelled, all the games where he had more than 15 points last year, there was week 10 he had 28 points versus Tampa Bay, had two touchdowns. Week 11, 32 points versus the New York Jets, two touchdowns. Week 15 against Buffalo, 30 points, two touchdowns. And then Miami 17 points in week 18, two touchdowns. Okay, so what about the games where he scored one or zero touchdowns? 11, 6, 7, 1, 2, 4, 4, 0, 5, 12, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 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