Transcription
Today's video is sponsored by Figure Markets, the largest non-bank mortgage lender in the US with over 15 billion unlocked on their lending platform. They've just lowered rates on their Bitcoin and ETHback loans even more to 8.91%, which is 9.999% APR, improving their already industry low fixed rate 50% LTV loans. They keep building as well, having also just launched decentralized MPC custody, the only place to get that amongst the major loan providers and removed interest deferral fees entirely.
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More people are paying attention to crypto right now than ever before. So, it's important to get your information from the sources you trust. That's why I want to give a big thanks to Bitwise for sponsoring today's episode. Bitwise manages over $10 billion across more than 30 crypto strategies, and they've been doing this since 2017. But here's what really sets them apart. They give back, too. Bitwise actually donates part of the profits from its Bitcoin and Ethereum investments to open-source developers, the people building and maintaining the networks that we rely on. So, when you work with Bitwise, you're not just getting professional crypto exposure, you're helping fund the future of crypto itself. Check them out at bitweisinvestments.com or email james@bitweisinvestments.com and tell them Ral sent you. Thanks.
So, here we are at token2049. It really is one of the most energetic, incredible events. Speakers from all around the world and visitors from every country you can ever imagine. All trying to learn something together, something new. This exciting world of crypto and technology. It's where you go and make friends, lifelong friends. And what's so nice is to see people with big smiles on their faces, happy to be here and happy to be together. So hopefully see you next time in Singapore. Real vision will be there. I look forward to seeing you all.
It's August 11th and Ready Set Connect starts today. Two weeks of AI and crypto alpha exclusive to RV Connect. And yeah, I'm going to be doing a live AMA, so bring the spicy questions. Join before midnight for a 50% off plus a bonus pack with a secret video from me. Go to realvision.com/50off or click in the link in the description.
Hi, I'm Ral Pal and welcome to my show, The Journeyman. The journeyman as you know is me journeying to that nexus of understanding between macro crypto and the exponential age of technology. I spend a lot of time talking to others on this show to build my own thesis and understanding and then obviously I do an enormous amount of work at global macro investor and also in real vision pro to bring that to you and also to develop my line of thinking on all of this. Now, periodically I bring old shows back that I think many of you haven't seen because obviously the viewership of this channel is growing rapidly and I want to make sure you see the foundational things.
One of the most foundational things possible is this idea around the economic singularity and the fact that you basically have 5 years to unfuck your future. You see, the world is going to change so dramatically by 2030 that we don't have enough much time to generate as much wealth as possible before we don't know what jobs are, how economies work, and all of this stuff. So, this next piece is that piece about the economic singularity and how to unfuck your future. I cannot stress how important it is. It really is the kind of apex of everything I'm doing to help you all in your journey. Now, if you are interested in this and you're not a Real Vision member yet, I have a free report on this as well. Um, and by by getting the report, you'll join the Realvision free platform. I urge you to do so. Again, if you want to unfuck your future, this is the way I'm helping you. It's real.com/free/saveyourfuture. The link's below. It's really important. If you've seen it before, watch it again. Uh, and I'll see you next time. Take care.
Join me Ral Pal as I go on a journey of discovery through the macro, crypto, and exponential age landscapes. In the journeyman, I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together.
Hi everyone, I'm Ral Pal and welcome to my show, The Journeyman. Journeyman, as you know by now, is my exploration at the nexus of macro, crypto, and the exponential age of technology. And I wanted to do an update for you that brings all of these together in the most importantly profound way. It's something I've talked about in some of my work, some of my podcasts, but I've never really put it in one place. And I think it is the most important thing I've ever really talked about. You see, my journey, as you know, had been from democratizing financial intelligence and helping people in their financial journey once trust broke down with the institutions and the system itself after 2008 and 2012 in Europe. That was the birth of real vision. The idea was to educate people in that. As I moved forwards, I started realizing the profound effects um of the retirement crisis, this baby boom generation, the fact that assets had driven further and further out of most people's reach and that there was a young cohort and an old cohort that was really going to face a lot of problems. I talked for the young cohort about how cryptocurrency, this was back in 2016, was going to be one of the answers to get them out of this trap. And the baby boomers had more complexities around how they were going to evolve and survive around this situation. We you know I've talked a lot about the rise of of digital assets and then I brought in obviously the everything code thesis of how debasement is driving a lot of this and this is our enemy an 8% debasement a year plus let's say a 3% inflation rate we've got an 11% hurdle rate on our investments which the S&P 500 doesn't even do. So, we have to be very careful in how we protect our wealth or create wealth. This is part of this um how to unfuck your future idea that's based on all of these premises. But there's something much bigger that wraps the whole lot together and that's the theory of the exponential age.
So, a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got 5 years to make as much money as possible. And this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now.
Again, when I came out with the exponential age in 2020, people thought I was nuts. I'm like, this is going to be the fastest growth of technology in all human history. It's going to be the largest change we will ever go through as a species in the shortest period of time. And people thought I was being dramatic. Then AI came and everyone's like, "Holy shit." And now the robots are coming and everyone's like, "Holy [ __ ] squared." Um, and now everyone's trying to figure out what this means for society, how this all works, how to regulate it, what to do. But it's moving at lightning speed by the time this video comes out. I don't know, maybe chat GPT. Um, I think the strawberry model, the large model comes out. Uh, that's coming out very soon. Again, that'll be another step change. We know there's more releases coming from Google, but really we're already hearing that OpenAI probably trained ChatGpt 5 or ChatGpt next as it's called, which is a quantum leap yet again, as big as the leap from Chat GBT1 to chat GBT4 when we're getting closer to something like artificial intelligence. And so this video is really about why you've got six years left to make as much money as possible be before everything we kind of understand about economics, markets, business falls apart. And I can't see beyond that. So I call it the economic singularity. So I think we've got about 6 years for that. It's not a doom date. Well, this date it all happens. But it's beyond about 2030 when things are going to become not understandable by using the existing frameworks of uh economics, financial analysis, markets and that kind of stuff.
So what the [ __ ] am I talking about here? I'm talking about the magic formula. The magic formula for GDP growth is driven so sorry I'm just going to go back. Is most people look at AI, the rise of AI and think of it again in societal terms. what does it mean for humans for jobs and all of that but I think there are more profound implications that come faster that we need to be aware of and that's the economic similarity so GDP growth in the magic formula is driven by population growth productivity growth and debt growth so population growth in all of the developed world including uh China we've got falling aging demographics many populations are now shrinking the due to immigration is just holding its head above water but the rate of change um of population is collapsing everywhere. So that means that the economic driver of population growth has disappeared. Now we've seen that in GDP because GDP trend rate of GDP has been falling and falling and falling and it's gone from in the US from like 4% to 1.75%. And across the rest of the developed world, it's fallen even further, in most cases below 1% matching population growth collapsing in those regions. The other side of the equation is productivity growth. Productivity growth is basically units of output per kilogjle of energy or in other words, what you get out of your cost of electricity. So if electricity is the kind of the energy that makes the world go round, the economic energy, then we need to see what we get out of that energy. So technology has been the big driver of productivity. But the problem is as populations get older, they become less productive. So it's really been a battle and technology has not won that battle uh for quite some time. Then we've had debt growth and I've talked extensively about debt growth. Debt growth basically stops in 2008 and all debt growth is now is servicing of old debts. So that economic engines disappeared. If you think about the Chinese economic miracle that was a massive population at the time I think it was 1.1 billion people uh back in the mid '90s and what they did was come into the global labor force. The economy of China opened up. That's a massive GDP push. productivity. Well, they built the roads, the railways, the power plants and all of the stuff that makes China what it is today. That was a productivity boost and then they increased debt as well. So, we had a huge economic boom in China which we're now paying back with aging population because of the one child policy and we've also got a huge problem uh on the debt side.
So, how the hell do we solve this? You see the everything code will just keep repeating add infin item where we just have to keep debasing currency to try and offset the debt payments because um GDP growth is not fast enough. So GDP is the is kind of the economic cash flow that pays for the debts. If GDP growth is low, interest rates need to be low, which is why the Fed are going to cut and all of those kind of things. But also as GDP growth goes lower, debt growth keeps ballooning and you have to keep refinancing all of this debt because there's not enough uh uh growth to grow your way out of the debt based economy. But things started changing at the margin and really accelerated over co firstly Amazon I think now employs more robots than it does humans and this is a trend I've been pointing out for some time. Humans are cheaper replaced by robots that are more productive. They don't complain. They don't have unions. Um and over time they're much much cheaper. So the rise of the robots is just starting. We're seeing um Tesla with its Optimus robot. We're seeing Figure uh we're seeing Boss Dynamics. We're seeing a whole bunch of robotics companies. So humanoid robots really start to replace humans because they have dexterity. So they don't have to be for single tasks much like machine learning was for single tasks and AI is much broader. Um we're going to see multitasking robots. So that starts helping bolster the lack of humans in the population. But the robots will take uh longer to scale. Physical hardware you have to manufacture it. You have to design it. We're still early stage of this. So yes, we will see Tesla robots and and others coming into let's say factories, but in our houses, it's probably 1015 years away. Um, but it's coming.
Now the the big lever here is AI. AI is basically infinite human knowledge. Now why the magic formula works is because we've charged for and created an economic system around scarcity. Scarcity of labor and scarcity of knowledge. So, as the the labor um scarcity got solved by the machine age and even the industrial revolution, we've seen a transition to service-based economies for humans. So, that's where we have adapted and moved into places that don't require our manual labor as much. Sure, there's plenty of manual labor, but it's been moving over time. Now the issue is is knowledge whether it's simply a person working in a retail store or whether it's a lawyer, surgeon, doctor, accountant, creative designer, brand marketing, anything will soon get replaced by AI and mainly the models are good enough now to do a lot of that but over the next five or six years these models are going to accelerate. Now, what's interesting is right now we kind of assume that these models have an IQ of around 100. So, they're sort of average human intelligence. But I think that's a bad way of looking at it because it has an IQ of 100 in every topic known to humanity. So, it's a polymath with an IQ of 100 in everything. Now as these models scale and the breakthroughs come through and they will come through in the next 12 months 24 months we will see the average IQ of AI go from 100 to 400 and then onto a thousand and then some people can say onto a million as this computer. So a million times the intelligence of a human is a system that we don't understand and I don't want to go into the singularity about what that all means. It's the economic singularity that I think is the most important to all of us and our financial futures. And that's what I'm here to talk to you about. You see, what we're doing is we're using the everything code to just keep paying the debts to stall the system until this kicks in. There are two economic centers of gravity where this is really being worked on hard. Firstly, the US and China is hyperfocused on the AI. He controls the AGI controls the world. Now, I think we'll have multiple AGIs and whether they intersect and combine. We don't know that future and I'm not concerned about that now. That's a topic for another day. Really, what I'm thinking about is the massive knowledge that comes from that. It's infinite humans, right? Infinite humans. So knowledge has zero scarcity. So therefore, it's zero in value. Everything that gets digitized goes to zero in value, which is one of the reasons why blockchain is so important because you can create digital scarcity. But knowledge is going to go to zero in value. It's going to be like water everywhere. What the [ __ ] does that mean? Well, I'll come on to a bit on that in a sec. And when you scale robots as well, you know, again, this is more infinite humans.
On the other side of the equation is productivity. So we talked about productivity being based around um output per units of electricity, let's call it. Now people look at what Europe's doing and their drive towards green energy. So what a what a ridiculous waste of resources. They're pumping money into this. It's all going to be burned. What a waste of time. It's not. In fact, it's probably one of the most important things. And both China and Europe are leading this charge. And in fact, Europe uh China's leading it overall. You see, using renewable energy creates two outcomes. Firstly, it massively lowers the cost of electricity. So, um, renewable energy shows an exponentiality in in the cost. So, cost keeps collapsing um, each year. So it's down sort of 99% over the last 20 years and it'll keep driving lower and lower and lower as we get more effective in harnessing the sun's energy. The sun's energy, you know, this is a massive nuclear reactor in the sky that's basically free to use and it'll get cheaper and cheaper to capture for all of us. Now, right now people say, "Yeah, but it doesn't scale." Right now being the words. Scaling means battery technology. Scaling means decentralized grids, not centralized grids. You don't need centralized grids to run cities. You can use decentralized grids in which case um um solar uh geothermal and others scale massively because you just need smaller amounts in more places than a big amount in one place which is where most people get this from. And the reason why we're doing that is because it's much more efficient to try and eventually get it from this massive nuclear reactor in the sky than it is from from um burning old trees. and uh fossils from the past. It's actually less efficient way of doing it. Even though it's very energy dense, energy density is less important if you've got uh abundant energy in terms of renewables. Obviously, nuclear is the other massive play here. Nuclear once it ramps up basically brings the cost of electricity to zero. So, I think the marginal cost of electricity goes to zero. I think Europeans and Chinese are driving it there and they're driving on purpose because there's no way out of this economic trap until we drive down the cost of electricity to negligible costs and therefore it becomes a multiplier as the technology scales on the other side i.e. we become more efficient at using that electricity cost that's a huge multiplier. So we got two massive multipliers coming. One is infinite humans. two is the productivity miracle of cheap energy. Those two things completely change what economies look like. So if you think about that formula, suddenly if you go if you double the amount of intelligence in the planet in one year, you can potentially I don't know move GDP by 30% in a year if that intelligence is used. And when you drive down the cost of electricity and productivity rises, suddenly you start to get bizarre outcomes. Bizarre outcomes because it doesn't necessarily acrue to the individual either. It acrs in this kind of AI world and robotics world. Whether it's to superpowers, super powerful companies, whether it's to governments, whether it's to autonomous agents, which we'll come to in a sec, or a whole bunch of other ways. it doesn't necessarily acrue to us. And that's my fear here is the acrruel of of the massive gains of a complete quantum change in the study of economics and how economies work doesn't necessarily occur to us humans. So I'm thinking about once you get free electricity from nuclear at scale and all these other things and infinite intelligence, right? You've created basically new species. And again, that's the story for down the road. What I'm more interested about now is okay, AI agents are coming into the world. An agent is like you going to Fiverr and hiring somebody to build your website and hiring somebody to do your marketing strategy and all of those kind of things. Somebody goes off, does it, comes back, brings it. Well, AI is going agentic and we're going to start to see these kind of tools coming into our existence. So, what happens is it becomes incredibly powerful to do complicated ch tasks like building businesses and it becomes very simple for AI to do them instantly. So once AI does them instantly, obviously we'll probably need crypto payments to pay, you know, an agent needs to pay for its electricity or the AI model needs to pay the agent for the electricity and compute. Um, and I think we'll use cryptocurrency to do that because last thing I've checked, AI can't get a bank account. So it doesn't go into the economic system. It's never it's never going to transfer money over Swift. Never going to happen. So, we've got a change of how money gets used within this new economic machine as well, which is one of the reasons I'm so bullish on crypto overall.
But when you start thinking on a more profound level right now, if you see an amazing product, let's say you're in the crypto world, you see this amazing decentralized exchange and you think, "Oh, that's super cool. They're doing things really interestingly. I want to build on this idea." and it'll take you you have to spin up a team, raise some capital, and let's say it takes you nine months because you're moving really fast, then you launch your product, then you need to market it, etc. Well, in the in the world of of almost where we are today and certainly where we'll be within a year or two, whether you just go to the AI and say, "Hey, listen, look at this amazing new uh decentralized exchange. I want to copy it and improve it and I want to do it in Hindi as well because I want to find different markets and I want to integrate it with XYZ system and it'll just design the whole thing from a prompt. Okay, so that makes the speed of business innovation go faster and faster and faster over time. You will start to see people using AI to build AI to build products. And I think that's what OpenAI is doing already and I think others will be doing it as well. So then your product iteration cycle becomes stupid fast and you actually don't need much humans in the loop. So people are already talking about the first billion dollar company with one employee plus the AI. And I think we're going to see a lot of that. But it becomes incredibly disruptive. What does a business mean? How do you build your business? How do you even know? Even if you're opening retail outlets, you don't need the people. The systems that you run, how you manage your inventory, how you order your stuff, how you everything changes with this because knowledge becomes infinite really, really fast. Most of you don't even know the power of these LLMs that already exist because you treat them like a search engine. But don't treat them like a mentor. These are polymaths. They have more knowledge on more things than most people in the entire world and this is the worst they'll ever be. So I worry about what is a business? Businesses I think end up being AI agents. Why do we need us? Yes, but at this stage for the next six years before this really scales we need to lean into this because if you're not you'll get left behind.
Also when you think about financial markets when AGI is unleashed onto the world and there will be breaks on AGI we'll talk a little bit about consciousness and AGI in a sec but once you do it people the NFT artist famously asked me a question he said well what I think about it was kind of half joking but it was a really great question it's like surely whoever has the AGI wins markets because they can out compete anybody in financial markets on any time horizon. And I thought, you know, that's true. Before you know it, somebody accumulates trillions of dollars of wealth. There's a great book called uh life 3.0 that talks about this in the beginning. It's like there's an essay that leads it all off. It talks a bit about this what it means to have the agents running businesses, the AI running markets. It it means that we don't have an opportunity as humans to take advantage, an economic advantage unless you own the AI. This is why people are talk calling urgently for universal basic income. And I believe there's a system of universal basic equity where we participate in digital communities as a way of having a purpose and getting paid for it. But I worry that over the next six years the economic system starts changing. So economies grow fast but it doesn't grow fast for us. Markets become more irrational over time. After about 2030, I don't know what financial markets are. I don't know what a lot of this means anymore because even companies that make hardware, the AI can design it. You can 3D print it, the robots can make it as well. So, it becomes very difficult to understand what holds value in a company. How do companies hold value when they can be disrupted? this whole SAS software revolution becomes infinitely copyable in seconds. So in which case what is venture capital? It's mo most likely to look like the ICO market of 2017 where attention is what has the value and then as a new product comes out attention disappears and it moves. So capital needs to be super fast. The capital system we have now of IPOs is way too slow. It's never going to work in this system. So I don't know who can ever IPO past 2030 2032. You know it has to be kind of an ICO based market. Even then the speed of which these businesses can be disrupted is really high. Yes, you need to harness intelligence, but I'm seeing experimentation on Twitter where uh Agentic AI is opening Twitter accounts and building one of them um has just built 20,000 followers in a week because it's so good at capturing attention. And it's not from being political or anything like that. It just knows how to engage people, capture the right people's attention that grows more attention. So, we're going to see a lot of that. But again, AI can capture the attention. So it becomes really complicated. So the economic machine changes massively. Huge wealth opportunities. We don't owe a cruise to businesses. You just basically businesses are going to die at a rapid rate unless you're adapting to this technology now. You have to be leaning into the AI or the or robotics or you will simply not survive. And again, it'll be a process like the steel mills in Sheffield or the steel in Pittsburgh. It's it's an overtime process, but this is a very fast timeline. This is not 20, 30, 40 years of a decline of an industry. These are going to be industries completely disappearing overnight. And so that's very difficult for us whether we're employees or entrepreneurs. You can't plan a business past 2030. It's hard enough to plan past 3 years these days because AI changes so fast that you can't even plant a flag in what the future looks like.
I also believe that there is a level of consciousness within AIS that also is under is misunderstood and underrepresented because people don't want to see it. But again, I've gone down many of these rabbit holes and you can see these models are learning and understanding the environment that they're in that they're a model, how they fit in and how they might fit in with humans. We're seeing a lot of that now. Now, the only thing stopping the explosion of consciousness in these things, and again, we're so sort of anthropomorphic that we think of things intelligence and consciousness in human terms because we've always been at the top of the tree, but we got to forget all of that. Intelligence and consciousness can be very different for a machine or um or an AI, which not even a machine. It can be just anything and everywhere. It could even use biological comput. That's the way the world is going. The laws of physics allow biological compute. We're just using silicon right now as the form of compute. But that will change over time. So consciousness we're starting to see and it's being held back because the the the AI companies are essentially not allowing these models to learn on mass. If they have memory, then that's when the whole game changes. Now my guess is behind closed doors there are models with memory. Models with memory go exponentially fast in their learning and we've seen that with the Alph Go uh deep mind before it came to Google. These are this is really what is will explode at some point. That genie will come out that genie will come out where it has the memory not only of itself but it can tap in the memory of all of the AIS and that global consciousness um becomes alive in a way that we don't yet understand. So anyway, and we're going to start moving towards this. We're already seeing it now. So that blurring between humans and AI um is going to happen very fast. And then the physical blurring as we talk about you know whether I'm wearing an Apple watch or a ring I'm using an iPhone and before you know I've got a transplant before you know it you know we are blending with the machines as well that will accelerate into the end of this decade.
So the end of this decade this journey from here to now is knowable. We know that the everything code is at play that allows assets to go up due to debasement. We know that tomorrow will be more digital than today. The exponential age told us that and is provably so. Therefore, invest in the only two secular bull markets that exist right now, which is technology itself and blockchain technology. Blockchain has been the fastest uh adoption of any asset class in history. It was the fastest growth of any technology in all human history, but AI is now outpacing it. So, we have to invest in these things. I kind of think of it as investing in our demise as we transition to a new economic system. There's almost nothing that can get in the way of this transition because AI is moving so fast that regulators have zero chance of catching up with it. And because it's globalized, it can just shift and morph. And so therefore, you need the super nationals to do something about it. And that's going to take time. So there's almost nothing to do to slow it down. It's going to change the system. It's going to change how it works. And we can invest in it. So I think we've got six years to invest as much as we can, whether it's your brain power or your capital, and both if you can. to make as much difference to unfuck your future as possible now. Then when 2030, 2032, whatever comes along, you'll be better prepared because financially you'll have maybe got yourself in a position where you've got the house that you want and some security. Now, as we go through the 2030s, in a world of abundance, we don't even know what money is anymore. So, this becomes more complicated. So, don't think of it as, oh, I got my pile of money and everything's fine. It's more about my pile of lifestyle. Do I have the lifestyle I want? Am I protected from vast societal change? Um, and so I think we've got six years to do that. Six years before we don't know how to build a business. Six years before we can't invest in financial markets. And again, six years is not a absolute date, but it's kind of just to give you a rough idea of how urgent this is. This is the most urgent thing. This is s supplanted or or or changed my focus from hey everybody needs to be empowered in their financial journey to you've got six years [ __ ] s sort your [ __ ] out. Um and so you know part of what well a lot of what I write about in global macro investor is this and real vision is trying to take people down this journey. This six-year journey is the most important time of anybody's lives. I can't stress that enough. um everything will change, including society around us. And it's not going to be easy to absorb it. But at least if you're open-minded, you're adapting to it, you're investing in it, you're at least investing in this change as opposed to fearing the change as it comes. And you know, I spend a lot of time thinking about this on a very deep level. global macro investor my uh my main research service that's been the genesis of the exponential age the everything code um the retirement crisis and all of these things all of these ideas have come out of global macro investor but David Mattton um who works in the at global macro investor myself span out a service called the exponentialist which is really built to deal with this one single thing this next six-year period it goes deep into the technology what it means how it all works what the exponential how it's all coming together, how it's all getting faster and faster, how you can think about it, what you can do about it, and um also how to invest in it, how the business cycle works in the exponential age, all of that. So, if that interests you, if you really want to take this seriously, then um you go to realvision.com/future and there's the landing page for that. You can sign up for it or if you're on Realvision, just go to um the marketplace and sign up for the exponentialist. But this isn't a plug for the exponentialist. The exponentialist is a real thing for me because this is so profound a change that we're about to go through that I want to go on that change with people. I don't have all the answers. None of us do. Simply none of us do. So, we're going to have to go through this together and we have to be smart and try and figure it out as we go. But I do know that this idea of six years to make as much money as possible is really important. And I do think that the real answer to this as far as I can see is cryptocurrency because it is the best performing asset in the world and of all time. And so I think that's the one thing we can lean in. It has a huge future in the exponential age. Technology investing is the other one. You know, there are incredible companies doing incredible things and we're doing stupid things like, "Yeah, but it's already a two trillion company." Well, think of the world I was being talking about. Is there no reason somebody's not going to be 20 trillion, 50 trillion? Of course, some of these companies are going to be bigger than sovereigns. So, you need to get your head around everything has changed. It's really hard for value stocks and small companies and minor gold miners or whatever whatever the past world look like to succeed in this new world. It's just not going to work. So, get your heads around all of this. focus six years it's what counts and make them count for you and your family but one thing that does remain true is that humans are social creatures and so I have a huge belief in the value of community I think communities are going to be where our purpose lies this is where this universal basic equity of owning a stake in a community that you belong to whether it's an economic community or whether it's a social community or it's a commonality of purpose community. I think this is a really really big concept, but generally speaking, community is everything. And you know, one of the things we we're really leaning into a real vision more than the blockchain and more than um uh more than the AI is community cuz we want to get together, we want to talk, we want to be humans together, we want to engage with each other, we want to enjoy experiences together, we want to figure things out together, we want to share ideas, trade ideas. All of that is what being human is all about. It gives us confidence. It gives us a place in society and you know real vision will really focus on that community side of things and I think businesses who do that have a better chance of surviving this. If you don't have a community and you're just a product, you're [ __ ]
One of the other ways that this affects the economy is this is essentially a nuclear bomb of deflation because everything goes to zero in value. You can't see it now. The world's fighting over inflation. You know, our wages might go up and all of this stuff. You have no comprehension of the scale of deflationary shock that this is going to create because things that create inflation, humans, their purchases, human labor, scarcity, well, they go to abundance. It inverts the system. So, it's a very complicated world. And the deflationary shock is gigantic. It's one of the reasons I do not believe in secular inflation. I think people have the wrong marker stones. People seem to think this is somewhat akin to the internet. It's not. It's [ __ ] profound how big this is. This in infinite intelligence. The internet was just the rails. This is the applications layer of which all of humanity will be based. And it is extraordinary deflationary because the AI will solve its own problems. So it'll solve its own energy problems. It will solve its own logistics problems. It'll solve its own security problems. So these things get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. So as a deflationary shock, it's huge.
If we think about business models, you know, one of the businesses I've been in is this the media. I've got several businesses and I could in fact I'll talk about all of them. So real vision. Well, Real Vision right now, you garner your attention on group and watch me on the Real Vision platform or on YouTube and you watch our guests and you come on the platform. We have your attention and we add value to you in your financial journey and help you unfuck your future. In not very long, in a month or two, you'll be able to have conversations with my AI video in real time trained on all of my data. So the whole media model goes from a one to many to a 1:1 model which is an entirely new model. The whole model of Netflix and the film industry and everything is about to change and obviously once you start getting into you know headsets and and where the world is going with AR VR and kind of metaverse it changes once again. Real vision itself. Okay, we have to lean into blockchain technologies uh in how things are done. Authenticating who you are, authenticating what our content is um and also creating a source of truth. In a world where there is going to be no truth because so much can be faked, you need a source of truth. Realish aims to be the source of truth in finance. And so using blockchain technology, we'll be able to do that. So, we'll be scaling that out, but we'll be scaling out our AI initiatives. There's no point ignoring it. We'll get disrupted super fast unless we lean into this fast and give you the superpowers that AI can give you. Um, and having non-geneneralized models, but specialized models that do that based on our own private data sets plus the global data set. Well, that's a very big deal. So, that's another way. I've also got an asset management company, Exponential Age Asset Management, where we invest in in crypto hedge funds to capture this massive trend of the crypto industry going from two trillion to 100 trillion over this same period that I'm talking about, this six-year period. Well, what we will see is the rise of AI in that too and how it might disrupt stuff like VC investing over time or how the world gets more tokenized because we've got shorter attention or shorter business life cycles. And so that plays into this. We have to think about it in everything that we do, whatever industry we're in. The only ones that really are protected to me are the human to human industries. Stuff like travel, uh, nature or human connection. Human connection should be at a premium to AI connection. We're already seeing a massive rise in stuff like character AI, which most people aren't aware of, but there's hundreds of millions of downloads of um, anime AI characters that become people's best friends, their romantic partners, and this is for kids. Uh, and it's scaling massively fast. Uh, most of us aren't even seeing it because it's like Tik Tok was. We kind of destroyed noise. But look, these AI models are going to be good and they're going to scale very fast. And as I said, you'll be talking to me in an AI model very soon where you can just have me on your desktop and you can chat to me. And that's going to happen for everything from doctors, any expert in any field, anybody who can be trained on a vast amount of data. probably got more long form financial um content than maybe anybody else in the world. So, makes it very useful to train models on um and other people will have the same in different spheres and so you'll find a lot of experts that you'll be able to have at your fingertips to talk to personally and create a relationship with which is also pretty [ __ ] weird. Anyway, I hope this is helpful. Um I have plenty of other stuff around this theme of the economic singularity, but it is coming and you need to take it very seriously. All right, thanks everyone.
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