Transcription
The crypto market is super bloody today. As you can see in front of you, many altcoins are starting to experience severe pullbacks. And you can also see that Bitcoin has started to break down from a very key level. So, in today's video, I want to speak about what lies ahead for the month of August because the data suggests that things could get worse before they get better. And I want to break down what this data actually means and how I am revolving my game plan around it.
If you watched a recent video that I did a couple of days ago, I did speak about the final phase of the bull run. I want to tell you that my thesis hasn't changed. Everything that I said in that video still stands true today. In fact, in that video, I did say still be prepared for severe corrections in bull runs because every time there's a correction in a bull run where the market is down 10, 15, 20%, people freak out and they think the bull run's over. You need the sentiment in the market in order to actually create these dips. If people didn't think the bull run was over, every single time we got a dip, well, then there wouldn't be any dips, right? People would just be buying up every dip with haste. But the fact that there is tangible fear out there in the market right now, in my opinion, creates big opportunity.
So today we're going to talk about what lies ahead for the rest of August, the data surrounding that, what I'm seeing on the charts, and then I want to get into altcoins and talk about how this could actually be an opportunity and talk about some of the exact altcoin setups that I am currently watching. At the end of the video, there are actually a couple of really time-sensitive setups that I have been taking today in my own personal trades. So if you stick around until then, we'll break all of them down and I'll give you the justification behind why I'm doing it. If you do enjoy videos like this where I give you the latest crypto market updates and help you through this pretty crazy phase in the bull run. Obviously, as we head towards the end, volatility gets worse and crazier in both directions. If you do want more content like this, make sure to click that subscribe button and hit that post notification bell so you don't miss a single video. Today's video in particular, I think, is very, very important.
Firstly, I'd like to start by looking at Bitcoin. So on the 4hourly chart, you can see that we did start to break down. We actually broke below the monthly high and the monthly open, which was a key level. We actually had a bearish retest of that level just an hour ago. And now we are starting to flirt with the range low. I think the range low becomes a little bit clearer on the daily. And really, you'd look for confirmation below on the daily before asserting we have broken down, but that is definitely something that could happen in the next 24 hours. So I'm watching this pretty closely. There's also a bit more liquidity to sweep on the weekly lowmonthly low, which was the wick that we made earlier today. And that wick also corresponded with a retest of the Bitcoin CME gap. This has actually been something that I've been speaking about on the channel for quite a few weeks. Remember when I made that video saying I was making my biggest Bitcoin buy ever if Bitcoin went into this zone, and it only briefly wicked into that zone a couple of weeks ago? Well, now we're getting a greater retest of that zone. So, this is now allowing me to ladder more aggressively in to my Bitcoin buys. Note, my plans haven't changed. Many investors when price goes down, they start flip-flopping. They start changing their plans. They start making it up as they go. I said from the very beginning that if we got a retest of the CME gap, which also corresponds with the daily money noodle, that I would be bidding. So, that is something that has been happening today in my portfolio. I've been slowly lading into Bitcoin. The way I bid in this market is never absolute. I would never make a huge portfolio defining Bitcoin trade, you know, in one entry. I I'll slowly lad in. So, I'd lad in on the first retest, the second retest, and um there is potentially a chance that Bitcoin does come down even lower. Like, if you do look at the chart on the 4hour here, uh you can see that there's a key level at the 110 to 111k region. This is pointed out by CryptoChase as well. Um this is a high volume node and a point of interest. I don't actually want to see Bitcoin come down here because I think then the reset would take a lot longer. It would definitely prolong the cycle, but it would mean that, you know, alts would perform very badly and it would take longer to climb out of that scenario. So, the best scenario for Bitcoin uh if you're a bull is probably that we get a lower sweep of this uh daily noodle here. We actually get a full CME gap sweep. I know we went down there, but we fully capture all liquidity in that zone. maybe 112 113 front running that 111 region and then getting a nice uh bounce to the upside and then a reclaim and the reclaim level you want to look at is the monthly high and the monthly open level at this uh 116 level. So something like this, you know, one more sweep uh and then you want to see Bitcoin starting to react strongly and actually flipping this key pivot zone here.
So in terms of my Bitcoin bias, just to give you an update on the video I did a couple of weeks ago, I I have I have started to ladder in in this zone. I'm reserving some capital in case we get a lower sweep just, you know, to be cognizant of risk management because I'm about to get into the August data. And there is a reason why a sweep is still on the table of that uh lower zone at at the 111 uh K area and I just want to be prepared for that. Obviously hedging against that by starting to make some buys now. So that's what I'm seeing on Bitcoin. That's what I'm doing with Bitcoin. This wick was largely triggered by the fact that the market was a little bit spooked by the tariff news. You saw stocks pulled back around 1% and then Bitcoin had a lot of liquidations around 800 million in liquidations. The majority of those 736 million actually coming from longs. So people starting to get overleveraged and overexited into resistance which I don't really understand because if you want to look at Bitcoin you know from uh just a super logical point of view it's just been in a range and this is something I've been spoking about over the past few weeks. it's just been chopping and until you see a breakout of either side of the range, you don't really want to ddle in the middle, so to speak. Uh you want to wait for a breakdown either to the upside or the downside. Now, we are flirting with a downside breakdown. If this does end up closing below on the daily, as I said, you've got that 111 zone as your next stop. It's this high volume node point of interest here at 111. But uh let's see. Let's wait and see. I'll keep you updated over the next few days. And of course, I'll keep you updated as my trade unfolds. But that's all I have for you on the Bitcoin front.
Now, let's get into Ethereum and then we'll get into seasonality and then we'll get into altcoins and some of the trades that I've started to take today. Looking at Ethereum, it's also flipped below a pretty key level. Although relative strength-wise, it still looks okay. It didn't actually sweep its range low. Bitcoin came down and sweeped its range low. So, Ethereum objectively looking a little bit stronger in terms of range structure. However, it still does look weak in terms of momentum because on the 4hour it broke below its momentum indicator, the Money Noodle. It also broke below a major pivot point at 3600. And for me, the probability of ETH actually giving a clean sweep of this 3500 zone is now quite high. That is the same zone I talked about on the last show with Paradise. So, I still think ETH probably sweeps this zone just based on price action, right? Obviously, nothing is absolute in the market. You always have to think in probabilistically in the market if you want to be a successful trader cuz there's always a chance, you know, we actually sweep this level, reclaim, and then actually target the highs again. That is a possible scenario for this to be a deviation reclaim setup. However, just based on where Bitcoin is sitting, just based on where the market's sitting and where seasonality is sitting, I think balance of probabilities are we get a push up here and then maybe we fill this gap here at 3500. 3500 for me is a is a very good bid zone in my opinion for ETH. That is the level where I'll add more ETH. I'll either I'll either add on strength or I'll add on a flush to the downside. Similar scenario with Bitcoin with my downside targets. If we did break below 3500, there is a very very key point of interest at the 3350 level. This is also corresponding with the daily noodle as well. That's a level that Ethereum has been sticking to basically ever since it flipped momentum in April. So that would be, you know, your ultimate bull market bid zone. Um, I just want to let you know now if we did go down there to 335, so 3350, this isn't the end of a boron. to simply a retest after after Ethereum became extremely overextended. And for Bitcoin as well, it wouldn't be the end of a bull run. It's simply also a retest of that daily noodle. That's obviously the level that during uh the Middle Eastern stuff was a great bid zone during the tariff bud was a great bid zone. So, these are just retests of key momentum levels. It's only if we started breaking below that you would start to get, you know, really, really concerned about the health of the bull market. So, don't panic if uh you do see prices going down to these zones. Obviously, it would be a little bit difficult in the short term uh just in terms of managing draw downs in your portfolio, but ultimately in my opinion, it would prove to be a strong opportunity uh to accumulate until proven otherwise. And I don't think we've put in our peak yet for the cycle. I haven't seen many of of the indicators that I'm looking for for that to be the case. And most of my trader friends that I speak to um also don't believe that is the case. So, if I'm wrong here, then we're all wrong. uh and you know that can happen sometimes in the market but uh until that is actually confirmed and that would for me be a breakdown of daily momentum on Ethereum and Bitcoin I'm not going to price in that scenario I'm going to price in the fact that we're going to get macro continuation thus dips are opportunities in the market so just to recap on Ethereum it's that 3500 level if you did start to break down you have 335 they're the two bid zones for Bitcoin now is actually a bid zone around the 114 zone and then you have your lower target of 111 So there your two zones on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
In terms of ETH BTC, which is momentum of ETH versus Bitcoin, which I think is very relevant as it pertains to altcoins, you are also seeing momentum starting to stall a bit. Does lead me to believe that if the market recovered, Bitcoin might lead and we actually might see this uh level tag. This was the breakout zone from uh July 24th. I think there is a probability now because it's starting to look like a rounded top that we come down to this level and then you know daily momentum will also catch up. That's not inher inherently bearish for alts. It just means that this next period of the market might be a bit of a reset where Bitcoin just outperforms Ethereum for a little bit before money flows back into ETH. But if you watch my video that I filmed on the beach the other day, I did discuss that this is the case. There's going to be a period in this bull market where money goes back into Bitcoin and then it kicks off that next capital rotation into ETH, majors, midcap, small cap, alts. That is going to happen towards the end of the cycle. So things are still playing out. uh as you would expect in terms of an overall cycle or the overall end to a cycle. Uh and one of the momentum signs I did want to use this as a bit of a moment for education before I get into what the data is actually saying about the rest of August. One of the signs that the market was looking a bit weak and was looking a bit structurally problematic a couple of days ago was when there was some really good news. So you saw Coinbase announcing they're partnering with JP Morgan. We saw the SEC news yesterday as well. Uh I'll talk about that later in the video. like all this good news coming but Bitcoin was failing to budge. Michael Sailor had already unloaded his clip and it barely pushed price to the upside. When you have all this good news and price lands flat, it's typically a sign that the market is a little bit exhausted at least in the short term. So that already, even if there wasn't a technical breakdown, was a fundamental reason uh to maybe invalidate or maybe just be a little bit more riskoff. And this the same is also true for the inverse. If bad news comes out and price just won't come down, that is a sign of strength. So news isn't what matters in the market. Headlines aren't what matter. In fact, at the peaks of markets, the headlines are often super bullish. And at the troughs of markets, the headlines are often super bearish. What is important, the most important thing in markets is how price action actually reacts to news. That tells you all you need to know about the health of the market. And this was an early warning sign yesterday and the day before that the market was on a nice edge. And today price action actually caught up and uh we did see the big dip in the market.
But let's talk about seasonality now. And then I'm going to talk into the uh talk about the opportunity with altcoins. In terms of seasonality, we know and this is something that I touched on last week that August is a pretty bad month for crypto. In fact, it's one of the worst months for crypto. And look, I'm not necessarily a a conspiracy theorist, nor am I um necessarily religious towards the, you know, Asian religions. However, there's also a bit of a trend here, uh, and it's called ghost month, and this is kind of interesting data. It's also backed up by just seasonality on coin glass. But um there's ghost month which is essentially the uh seventh lunar month of the year which has a tradition where the gates of the underworld opens according to chachbt and some basic research that I did. Wandering spirits roam the earth and any big new venture invites bad luck. People therefore avoid weddings, house moves and crucially fresh investments. Liquidity falls, risk-taking dries up and markets often wobble. Now I don't know if it's necessarily this uh Luna month that is causing the downturn in markets. But what we do know in terms of financial markets you know a lot of trading desks go away from August. A lot of holidays are during August. So volume typically compresses during August. This is known as the summer chop. Now I think it surprised a lot of people including myself that the rally in July especially for Ethereum was so big. I think this made a lot of people feel like the cycle had sped up. But the reality is it was only July and we typically don't expect the market peaks to happen in the top months for seasonality on Bitcoin and Ethereum. And these are October, November, December, January, February, March. These are the strong months, Q4 to Q1. So my top targets are Q4 to Q1. And my targets for uh maybe a potentially choppier period in the market are uh are months like August and potentially September, which are typically weaker than October, November, and December. So whether you think it's, you know, because of this ghost month or whether it's just the natural ebbing and flowing of the market and liquidity as people go away, one thing we do know is that August is typically bad for markets. I mapped out the Bitcoin price performance every single August to September based on these lunar months. And you can see 2024, we went down 20%. 2023, from 16th of August to 14th of September, we went down 12%. 2022, we went down 15%. pretty much every single uh period from August to September and it changes based on the lunar month. Uh according to this table here, the market goes down double digits and the net return in every single uh period has been down apart from 2021 which obviously was a massive outlier in the market and Ethereum also echoes similar price action. If you toggle the Ethereum button here on Coin Glass, you'll see that August is also a bad month for Ethereum in the context of the entire year. So, August is probably going to be a little bit of a choppy period. But Runner does point out, and this is a a statement that I agree with, that this selloff that's happening pretty much based on seasonality that's happened every single year is a great opportunity if you want to get positioned for Q4 and Q1. Also, August is trading like the past few August. So, nothing out of the ordinary with August being weak. I tweeted here, "August is always bad. Nothing new. This is your chance to prepare for the final leg." And this is also something that I said in my video a few days ago. A a dip that would come would be a big opportunity to accumulate. And you don't want to buy into pumps. I've always said on the channel, you want to wait for big dips to actually accumulate. And we are starting to get a dip. Now, earlier I pointed out a couple of the downside targets. You don't need to ape in all at once. You could put a little bit in now. You can DCA slowly and then, you know, save a bit of liquidity for if we go lower. And if we don't end up going to that lower target that you have, you can always buy back in on a sign of strength. There's no need to FOMO. The best approach to dip buying is always DCAing. Otherwise, you're going to end up trying to catch a knife, and that is a very difficult thing in the market. So, the opportunity comes in the fear. If you still think Bitcoin is going to hit a new high, if you still think ETH's going to hit a new high, and nothing suggests that is going to be otherwise this cycle, then this is a big opportunity for you to accumulate and for you to get into the right tokens, potentially the tokens that you missed during the last runup. I'm going to do a maybe a bigger portfolio video at some point in the very near future. So, make sure you're subscribed to the channel. That will be coming soon. But I'll talk about a few that I've actually been adding today uh in just a minute here because there are a few narratives that I missed out on and a few trends that I wanted to, you know, add, but the market just wasn't giving me a dip. Now, we're finally getting a dip. I'm able to add to the positions that I've been wanting to add for quite some time. As you can see, crypto god John here says, "I think the playbook for August is the same playbook as July. Early months shake out then up. There's definitely a chance that the worst period here is the next one to two weeks and then people start to frontr run the market getting better towards September and then later in the month you see a rally. I'm not really a big fan of having a strategy that relies on micro time frames because I think it is very difficult to you know assert that okay this week's bullish, this week's bearish. What I like to do is look at general seasonality. And what general seasonality tells us is that this general period in August is a good accumulation month and then the general period of Q4. So October all the way to Q1 in March is going to be a better period for the market and the opportunity lies in between.
All right, now let's talk about what the actual opportunities are. We did see a big announcement, although the market did shrug it off and drop um that the SEC is launching a new crypto initiative to modernize security rules and shift markets on chain. This is pretty big news because obviously, you know, under Gendler, we saw the SEC attacking crypto companies. Now they're embracing crypto and actively supporting it. So, the SEC is essentially saying most tokens aren't securities. There's now clear rules coming for ICOs, airdrops, and staking. The US is embracing tokenized stocks, DeFi, and super apps. Um, and the other thing we're also seeing is, of course, World Liberty Finance, the Trump administration's project and application is going to be launching very soon. And that's going to be the central hub for the new stable coin USD1, which is already one of the biggest stable coins in crypto and is going to be, I think, one of the biggest stable coins in crypto as it's essentially backed by Trump. So, this is basically a golden stamp of approval that stable coins are the future. Trump understands that it's very necessary in terms of his global US dollar strength to have strong payment rails for the US dollar and we've already started to see this trend obviously with the huge growth as you can see in front of you from USDC the huge growth of USDT and this overall trend uh proliferating so I think world liberty finance actually could be an interesting trade I'll talk about it in the near future but what I'm looking to do is get exposure to the protocols that are facilitating stable coin payments stable coin usage on chain because these are going to be the way that you can get exposure to the growth of stable coins because obviously you can't invest in USDC or USDT. I mean you can but you're not going to make any money. Your dollars are going to just end up getting dwindled to inflation. So I'm looking at plays albeit riskier plays at this stage in the market but ways that I can get exposure to probably the biggest narrative in crypto and the narrative that's found the most product market fit which is stable coins.
Now, interestingly, Clear, which has been an RWA project that I've been a fan of for quite some time, they're now stepping into the PayFi arena. Now, they maybe announced this on a pretty bad day in terms of the market, if you want to look at it that way. However, because they announced it on a bad day, actually spells opportunity in my opinion because um they've announced something that maybe on a bullish day price would have reacted really well to. But instead, we've actually come down almost to the monthly open level and uh nearing the range low level. Uh which in my opinion is an opportunity because I've had a chance to speak to the team. I really think they're going to do well with this PayFi introduction. So basically they're launching a new product called their payi credit pools and it's basically going to allow users and institutions to access highly liquid real world opportunities and CPSD which is their new yieldbearing asset. And I think the opportunity is big for protocols that are actually able to facilitate all this capital that is now interested in stable coins. I mean we know how janky the traditional rails are in terms of bank payments. I mean, if you've ever dealt with international bank payments, it's an absolute nightmare. I think businesses and institutions are now realizing they can become much more efficient by utilizing stable coins, but they will need payment processes and they'll need applications that are basically connecting the real world and the onchain world. So, there are a few protocols that are doing this, but uh Clearull being a protocol that I've been a fan of for a while and are now announcing this uh today. One that I'm backing and I've taken a new position over the past few days, albeit I've averaged um down throughout this dip. If we did get to range low, I'd probably add even more, but we're just in a range if you want to look at it objectively. So, towards range low, um you can obviously ramp up your interest in terms of buying. Uh potentially we could also see this as a mid-range deviation and then a reclaim and uh actually reclaim this 3-day noodle here. I think that is a very key level to get above. So if you're a technical trader, you can wait for this and then potentially compression into a range high break. That's from a technical perspective, but from a fundamental perspective, it ticks the boxes as a coin that I want to hold heading into the end of the year because right now I'm looking at protocols that are actively in the hottest narratives for the end of the cycle.
Ena is another one of them. This is one actually on the last show we got a very good entry with Paradise as we wicked down to that key level on the H4. But you can see now it is starting to give you a bit of a dip even though you know in the past day with the market dropping it's actually been quite strong. Uh but this is a key zone here if you do get a chance to accumulate more ENA at the 52 cent to the 55 C zone. I think this would ultimately be an opportunity. I did get my entry uh on the weekly chart here. So if we look at the weekly breakout my entry was around here at 42. So I did take half my profits. I'm still riding half my bag. I got one additional entry on this wick, but I would maybe look for a wick fill there to add more. But ENA is another one that's on my accum accumulation list. Some alts look better for DCAs than others today. Uh, but as I said earlier in the video, just pick solid protocols that you think will do well over this next period in the cycle that you think have narrative alignment and then you can actually DCA into them. One that I took uh a new DCA today into is Useless as well. This is basically the leading meme coin of the Bonk ecosystem. I think uh this is actually an opportunity considering the fact it's come off from its highs 47%, now it's sitting around 38%. So this is one I mean you could target range low as well. Uh if you want to be a bit more technically minded about it, but this is one that I've DCA into at uh support there. Another one that I'm looking at is Fluid. This is a very strong protocol actually. If you look at the DEX volume, it's now the fourth biggest DEX in crypto which is absolutely insane. yet it has a fraction of the valuation of uniswap radium pancake swap. So I think this is actually a big opportunity considering the fact that it's come off uh to the wick low 25% now sitting around 21% down and it's coming into a key level a key retest level here on the 3-day. And if you want to look at the daily as well retesting the noodle for the first time since the beginning of July. So this is one that I also DCA a little bit more into today. Uh, anyone in MHC, Miles High Club, would remember the legendary trade that I had on the diagonal breakout when it went from $3 to $6. But since then, this is one of um I mean your first really really solid entries. Other coins that are on my watch list, I'm just scrolling through to see if I missed anything. Wrecked has been one that I've actually been watching. This is a basically a brand coin. I think the guys have done an amazing job. So yeah, this is now having uh a dip for pretty much the first time. It's been up only for the last few weeks. I would probably look at trying to be a bit picky here and maybe scooping up uh this zone here at the 08 level. Obviously, there's a lot of decimals prior to that.
So, basically to summarize my strategy because I'm going to do a portfolio video in the coming days. Um so, I don't want to bloat this video too much, but to summarize my strategy, it's getting into tokens that I think will do well over this August period if ideally either DCAing or getting them as close to high time frame uh key levels as possible so you have some sort of invalidation on those coins. and then I'm looking at building my portfolio, uh, building that nice base for the next leg in the market. So, don't let this dip scare you. View it as an opportunity. In my opinion, it's not the end of the bull run. If you think the same, then ultimately dips are opportunities and there is no reason to be scared. I'll see you in the next video. I'll keep you updated with everything that I do as the market evolves. I'll see you in the next one, guys. He's up.