Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin, and we're going to be providing an update to the bull market support band. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, this week, or really, I should say this month, ended up being a very similar month to what we saw in 2020. In fact, um, I don't know if any of you guys remember, but, you know, a lot of what we talked about at the beginning of the month was sort of the different outcomes that we could see, right? Okay, we, we, one of the main ones we discussed was how similar this year has played out to the capitulation we had in 2020. Now, I want to be clear, like, while I, you know, hopefully we can get another rally by Bitcoin in Q4, I, I wouldn't necessarily expect something as explosive as what we got in late 2020, um, and early 2021. Uh, but with that said, one thing to note is just how similar it has played out so far. And we'll, we'll dissect it a little bit more. We'll talk about some other examples as well.
You know, obviously, comparing a post-halving year with a halving year, you know, is maybe not the best way to approach things. But in, in other ways, if you know, if back in 2024, we compared it a lot to 2019. And one of the reasons for that was because in 2024, we saw a gold breakout. When gold broke out, it led to this six, six to seven month consolidation phase, just like we had with Bitcoin. And, and then, of course, we ended up getting a capitulation low in Q1 of the following year. You could argue that, you know, this rally here was similar to, you know, this rally here, right? Very similar things. The only difference is that in this cycle, it led to a new all-time high, and in this cycle, it did not. Um, so it's not like it's completely far-fetched to make the comparison, but what's interesting is just how similar they have been. You have your capitulation low. You go basically straight up, uh, recover to where you were before the capitulation, and then you go sideways. And then before tagging the 21-week EMA, you go up, sideways, local top in August, and then down into September. Okay? And then once you get into September, uh, you have two weeks up and two weeks down. All right?
Now, what you'll notice is that this year is almost a carbon copy, right? You go up, and then you get that slight bleed, but then you rally before Bitcoin hits the bull market support band. You put your local high in August, you go down to the bull market, you go up for two weeks, you go down for two weeks. So, it's almost right. It's almost the same thing, right? It's almost the exact same thing. Uh, when you view it through the lens of that, the main thing you have to be aware of is that this bleed here by Bitcoin, right? That bleed there, let's make it a different color so it stands out a little bit more. That bleed is similar to the 2024 bleed. And both of those bleeds corresponded to when gold broke out to new cycle highs. Right? So, if you look at gold, you can see that when it broke out, um, uh, really, really when it broke out into, um, sorry, when it broke out into this move right here, it was really this breakout down here. That's when that's when it sort of led to a, a brief bleed by Bitcoin back in 2019. And then you can see over here, same type of thing, right? When gold, uh, really started to break out here, that was when it corresponded to that, that brief bleed by Bitcoin. The main difference is that the, that the next move that happened after that, that period, that consolidation phase in this cycle, it led to a new cycle high, right? You can pretty clearly see that it led to a new cycle high, but in last cycle, it did not. Right? You still ended up getting your Q1 capitulation the following year, right, right in Q1, Q2, and then everything since then has played out almost the exact same way. So, very similar moves, right? Very similar moves.
Now, the other thing that I, I, I want to remind people of is that we shouldn't just compare to 2020 because while it does look a lot, you know, it feels very familiar, there's also something else we have to consider as well, and that's that it's a post-halving year. So, a lot of times, now, look, obviously, there's people coming out and saying that the cycle will go on longer. But at the end of the day, you have to put some weight into the idea that the cycle top will just occur in the fourth quarter of the year, just like it did in 2013, just like it did in 2017, and just like it did in 2021. So, while in 2020, it actually rallied into early the following year, I, I'm suggesting that might be a little too optimistic. Okay?
Now, there's a lot of people coming and they're coming out and saying this is what's going to happen. And maybe they're right, but I, I wouldn't go into it as, as being the base case. Because if you go into it being the base case, and then it ends up playing out how it always has, then, you know, come 2026, it's just going to be like, "Oh, wow. It happened again." You know, everyone thought it was going to go on and go on forever, and this time is different, and then, by the way, it ends up actually not being different. So, something to consider, right? Something to certainly consider.
So, what I think is important here is that, you know, not just looking at 2020, but also looking at 2017, you can see that Bitcoin found support at the bull market support band. You can see in 2021, Bitcoin found support at the bull market support band. Now, in 2017, Bitcoin found its low about mid-September. In 2021, it found its low late September, right? Late September. And if you zoom into it, you'll see that there was a low late September. And then the following week, the week of September 20th, uh, sorry, the week of September 27th, it, it was a green week, but it did wick down again, right? So, it wicked down one more time to that 20-week moving average, and so you ended up testing that 20-week SMA, right? You, you test, you went below it one week, and the next week, you wicked down to it again, and then it led into the, into the rally into the market cycle top.
So, what we've seen now is we've seen Bitcoin tag the 20-week SMA in late August and early September. It got the two-week rally. It got the two-week dump. Now, to go back to 2020, the one thing I, I will point out, and, and I know a lot of people are saying, well, you know, is, is this it? Is this the rally? Well, hopefully, it is, right? Hopefully, it is. The one thing to keep in mind is, is if, if we go through the next week and Bitcoin still doesn't catch a bid, like for whatever reason, right? For whatever reason, whether it's fear of the unemployment rate stuff coming out, whether it's government shutdown, who knows what the, what the narrative could be, but I want to draw your attention that there's a slight difference actually between 2020 and 2025, at least locally. Not macro, like in terms of the overall move we've seen, but locally, the difference is that the two-week rally and the two-week dump, it ended the week of September 28th, right? So, September 28th, Bitcoin still didn't go anywhere that week. And the problem is that that's the week we just started. Today is September 28th. So, I know a lot of people are hoping that Bitcoin just lifts off this week. Uh, but considering it's only, you know, we're still, this week is going to be sort of half of September, or the first half of the week is still going to be September. I just want to make you aware that, hey, if Bitcoin doesn't go anywhere this week and it still struggles at the bull market support band for a little bit longer, I don't think it would necessarily mean that the 2020 comparison is invalid. It might just mean that Bitcoin needs another week to consolidate before it, before it hopefully can, can move back up.
If you look at 2021, you know, the big move back up came this week, right? But it did wick down first to the 20-week moving average. So, I've had some people reach out and be like, well, what about Ethereum, right? You know, where's, where's Ethereum going to go? Um, and ultimately, I do think Ethereum is going to head to new all-time highs. But if Bitcoin does, you know, if, if Bitcoin does, um, you know, continue to hang around these levels, then it, it certainly would allow Ethereum, uh, to, you know, to potentially hit its own 21-week moving average. It already got pretty close. If Bitcoin were to wick down again, it certainly could tag it. The other thing that Ethereum could do is it could just simply go sideways at this point until the 21-week EMA catches up. That's another perfectly valid option. Okay? Perfectly valid option.
So, that's what I'm looking at for Bitcoin, uh, this week. That's what I think is the most relevant things to look at. Obviously, we are getting on in the cycle. We're about to approach Q4 of the post-halving year. Um, and I, I do think it would be prudent for everyone not to become too complacent, uh, as we get further out into the fourth quarter and just kind of recognize, you know, historical, historical patterns. The good news for Bitcoin is that we've made it throughout most of September without going, you know, without a weekly close below the 20-week moving average, um, or the 21-week EMA, right? Where we've stayed above the bull market support band, we have not gone to that 50-week moving average, which is a good thing. Um, there's also a lot, I mean, I don't put a lot of weight into this stuff, honestly, because I, I do think that lines can easily be, you know, redrawn, but I, I think some people are sort of looking at, like, this trend line here, and I don't even know, like, what wicks exactly they're, they're connecting, but you can see we are sort of coming into that, to that support level, however you want to draw it out. But we might already be there, depending on how you draw it. But that's going to be certainly something to watch because you could argue that whenever we start getting weekly closes that stay below this trend line, that would be a sign that the cycle is in fact over, and whenever you get weekly closes below that 50-week moving average, because that 50-week moving average now is, is really well below, uh, this, this trend line. So, so watch out for that as, as the year goes on. Um, uh, just something to keep in mind.
We're going to go ahead and wrap it up there. Uh, thank you guys for tuning in. We've gone through the month of September for the most part, two weeks up, two weeks down. Might get another consolidation week. We'll see. Uh, but hopefully, hopefully things can look better, uh, as we get out into, into early Q4. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.