Transcription
Hello everyone. So, before I leave you to your sad fate this weekend, I will still give you a little indication and a reading level that will allow you to approach this weekend serenely. Bitcoin is currently at $110,903 and I will talk to you about this support, the support uh of $111,000. It's really, we'll see, we'll go into a bit more detail, but there is a support level concretely between $111,200 and $111,400 which is really very, very important. I will explain why. I will explain what is at stake at this level. And why it is really the level where everything is happening, right? You see that here we have worked it quite a bit, we have bounced off it. Here too, we have tried to break through it and that took us much lower. Here, we have worked it again. Oops, we were hunted and when we managed to break through it again, we were immediately plunged back underwater. We will try to understand what happened at these levels, what is happening, what is the behavior of the whales, the big players who make the market and try to understand a little bit what will happen this weekend. Uh will we have a bullish recovery, a bearish continuation or finally, well, are we at a market change or not? So we will look at all of this a bit and we will start by looking at the cost basis distribution at Glassnode. OK, the cost basis distribution, it indicates to us in a rather graphical and simplified way the levels at which we have a transfer of liquidity between two cohorts, two groups of people. So I'll explain, cohorts are groups of people. So you have them here for example, the mega whale cohort which you see here in yellow, meaning wallets that own more than 10,000 bitcoin. You have here the whales between 1000 and 10,000. here the dolphins between 100 and 1000 bitcoin, the fish. Anyway, you understand these wallets, they own a certain quantity of Bitcoin and their quantity evolves over time. We look at the transfers of these cohorts and the transfers of these cohorts are shown here in red and orange in this graph. When you have big red lines here, it means that you have had at this level. OK? So here, I'm showing you the little square. You see this little square here, you see the cost basis range. So between $9,3773 and $94,080, meaning at the time when Bitcoin was worth roughly $93,800, well we had a supply of 205,000 bitcoin, 205,619 Bitcoin that were bought at that time by people. OK. There were therefore 205,000 sales, 205,000 bitcoin in sales and 250 205,000 bitcoin in purchases. OK? Naturally, when you buy, someone sells, it's always a zero-sum game. The advantage of this is that it allows us to see at what moment support levels are established. If we look a bit at the last three months, you will see that here at that time, when we were around $108,200, you see therefore cost basis range $108,300 and so here we had a supply of 130,000 bitcoin, 130,594 bitcoin that were bought. The interest in looking at this is that you see that it is located below the price. The price bounced and when we were at these price levels, the line that was previously yellow turned red. OK? And at that moment, when the price went up, the line became more and more red. OK? More and more red. Of course, it has lightened over time, I concede. We went here at the low point to 130,000 Bitcoin in supply. And when we were here for example, and we went back up, well little by little on the price increase, these 130,000 diminished to 107,478 Bitcoin. So that means we had about 25,000 bitcoin that were sold during this period. But above all, you see that out of the 130,000 bought, more than 70% of the position was held. OK? During this upward phase. That's a good sign. And it told us that you see here during the decline, so we were here at 107,000. OK? And during the decline, precisely if we look at the low point here we were at 110,000.00. This means that here on this decline, the people who had bought at these levels held on and even reinforced their positions. OK? That's how you read this graph. It allows us to look at price movements and to see at what moment we have levels that are potentially bought or potentially sold. The problem, therefore, as we see here, is that then during this period between this rise and this fall, this is what caused me to change my bias over time, that I told myself be careful, be prudent. Because here on this decline, you see that the people who were positioned here came to liquidate their positions, came to sell and in fact we have here a cluster that has formed, this famous cluster that I told you about at the beginning of the video at the level of $111,160 to $111,403. So if you want to understand a bit what to do at these levels and understand a bit the stakes, don't hesitate to watch the rest of the video because I will explain everything to you. So here, at that moment, we had a price drop. We broke this major level and you see that since then we have been evolving below this major support level and that here, we are talking about 135,000 bitcoin in sales as well. So here, we had 136,000 Bitcoin that were bought. So the price was below uh the price, sorry, was above this support level. Well, the price is now below this resistance level. And that's why it's complicated. That's why we're struggling to break through this level because here 136,000 Bitcoin, if you look here, well we are at 114,000 currently. There are 114,000 Bitcoin, sorry, that are bought, that have a supply. So, there are 114,000 bitcoin in supply that are exchanged in this price range. 114,000 Bitcoin at a price of approximately $111,000, that's about 12.5 billion dollars. 12.5 billion. You can imagine that it doesn't break through that easily. OK, we will have to hit it. There will be exchanges between different cohorts. You might have dolphins buying from whales, whales selling to plankton, etc. Well, a lot will happen at these levels, but you see that it's a big stake. And if we look at the order flow here, we will try to switch to a shorter time scale. And we will look at, of course, here, oops, we look at these levels $111,160, oops here and $111,400, oops just here. Between these two bands, you see that this is where everything is decided. This is where we have the huge transfer that took place. Now, it took place, if we look here, the cost basis distribution, it took place at that moment. So it was October 15th. OK? So it's especially on October 15th that it came to be decided. October 15th, we were here. OK? You see, it's around here that we had a big transfer. And you see that since then, unfortunately, we have settled in durably below. We have worked here. We have bounced, bounced, bounced. Here, we have worked this zone well and the outcome of this was that we made our famous bearish leg. The famous bearish leg on which we had a lot of negative excess. It's visible right here. You see that we went into the red. This means we were scared. This is also what allowed us to go back up, what I told you here was a good time to buy. Oops, we had the bounce and we went back to the resistance. The problem is that here, we made a simple pullback. A pullback is a bounce in a downtrend. OK? When you have a breakout here, let's say we have a breakout, it hits, the bounce is called a pullback. Here, that's exactly what we had. We went down and boom, we bounced here. A pullback, a bearish pullback in a downtrend. Of course, we are in a compression zone, meaning that here, we have a price evolution where the lows are getting higher. So, if I draw it, it's better. Oops! Small lows that are getting higher, but we also have highs that are getting lower. OK, tac tac tac. So something is really being decided here. Something is happening. We should have a resolution relatively quickly because by compressing, well at some point, it's like when you compress a spring, when you let go, it explodes quite strongly. And here you see that at these levels, we are still hitting. You see that it's at this level that we hit yesterday late in the day. We came back to work it again and you see that at these levels each time, well we have exchanges here and a big support is being created. So here, we will have to be very vigilant about what happens at these levels because here, well indeed, if we manage to break through this level in a truly sustainable way, we can go up again. But I will give you a little hint, a little hint of the direction that I think will be taken. And this, well, it only engages me again and the members of my investment circle. Even if this doesn't engage them in our investment circle, precisely, I won't leave them abandoned all weekend. I will of course keep them informed. And if you want to join us, you have all the links in the description to do so. If I switch to a shorter term here, you will see that something is happening. That is to say, again below resistance because, well, this level is a resistance. Now my graph is starting to become illegible but you understand. So supports and resistances are key market levels. When we are below a key level, we call it a resistance. When we are above a key level, we call it a support. When we were here, this level was a support level. You see that we worked it and we bounced. Conversely, when we are below, the probability of a bounce on, well, the probability of the subsequent movement when we are at a resistance movement, is rather a bearish movement than a bullish movement. Breaking a support is a minority situation. OK? And it happens under very specific conditions, conditions that we detail in my graphical analysis training, the training that you can have precisely if you join us as a member of the investment circle. So here, unfortunately, you see a behavior that is quite typical of fundings increasing. Fundings are the translation of market euphoria. It's a mechanism that balances long positions and short positions on derivative contracts. That is to say, when there are too many buyers, we lower the fundings to, well, sorry, when there are too many sellers, we lower the fundings to encourage buyers to enter positions. When there are too many buyers, fundings rise and we balance the number of positions like this. And here, you see that positions are opening. This is what open interest tells us. Again, we have a complete chapter dedicated to order flow and the analysis of these graphs in the training. But here, to summarize, you have an increase in people who are making bets. So here you have more and more people entering the casino and the people entering the casino are euphoric. And you see, historically and it's a completely understandable mechanism. I will explain it to you one day if you want, don't hesitate to say so in the comments. But the crowd is always wrong. You don't need to have studied much for that either. We know it, the crowd is always wrong. And here, the crowd is entering the casino. You see it here. And it's entering euphorically. And so here, unfortunately, the probability of breaking this support is lower than before. You see that this was the case here on this movement. We had a big price increase. This price increase happened on an increase in open interest. You see? So here, people entered the casino and the people who entered the casino, oops, they entered rather euphorically. So in fact, here we had people who entered euphorically and oops, well again, we were hunted. Same. Here, we had, well just here, it was a cascade of liquidations, but you see that here, we made a deviation, so we went strongly bullish, but you see that we didn't manage to make the famous pullback. Oops, to do this. We fell back directly and and we actually made precisely this behavior that we don't like to see, but a re-entry below this resistance level. And so here, unfortunately, the probability of breaking this resistance, at least here, is low. After, that doesn't mean that this weekend we won't have this. OK? It's possible we'll have this. Honestly, if you've followed the channel's videos in recent days, well you know that this scenario is becoming less and less probable due to the fact that we have bearish pressure from precisely the main big cohorts which are the mega whales and the whales. OK? You see them right here. Well, you see that they have been selling strongly for some time. Well, these are them that you see here, these are them that you see right here who sold strongly. Well, unfortunately, when they sell, it's generally not a good sign for the rest of the market. We also see it in liquidation phases. You see that there is an imbalance this week. Here we are on the Binance perpetual contract. You have a price increase with liquidity that is located below. If really at first glance, I ask a beginner where the yellow and green colors are mainly located, is it rather below or above the price? Well, here it's rather below the price. So that means that we have many more people to liquidate by going down than people to liquidate by going up this week. Obviously, if we change the price scale, there is something else to look at. OK? If we look over 2 weeks, you will see a large liquidation zone above the price and, of course, I don't deny it, OK? It's true that if we look at the current 2 weeks, we have quite a bit of liquidity to recover above. So it's possible that we will liquidate these positions. But be careful not to make this kind of move, to go strongly upwards and have a level of euphoria that starts to get out of hand and therefore a price drop. Here, when I told you, I released a video precisely at $113,700, we were exactly here. OK? I released this video here, I told you to take profits. Now, in the comments, I was attacked because, well, people were bullish and I understand, but you see that unfortunately the market was not ripe for a real breakout and we went back down. And this is precisely what we work on in our investment circle, to be able to work on this market psychology to be able to draw maximum profit from it, to protect ourselves when needed, and then to re-enter when needed because, I repeat, the macroeconomy is still very good. Rate cuts, gold starting to top out which means we could have a liquidity influx. Uh we have a lot of things about precisely a potential quantitative easing that could arrive from the bank of the American central bank, so the US Federal Reserve. So we could have very good news coming in the future. That doesn't mean that the next 6 months are necessarily bad, but currently in the short term, well the bearish scenario remains the most favored. So protect yourself, take care of your portfolio. It's in moments like these that when the sky is dark, it's time to take out your umbrella. It doesn't mean we're going to get soaked, but going out without an umbrella is still very risky. So there you go, I'll stop here for this video, which is a bit short, but keep a close eye on this level. This level between $111,200 and $111,400. Watch what happens. If we manage to break through it and make a pullback, it's a very good sign. If we top out again and you see fundings going crazy, you see, as we could have just there, well it will be a bad sign. So there you go, thank you, have a good weekend and for those who wish, we are open 7 days a week, 24/24. I send messages constantly with every volatility movement. So to not be lost, don't hesitate to join us in our investment circle. We will be happy to get to know you. So there you go, thank you. Goodbye.