Transcription
[music] No recession, no crime, no recession.
>> [music] >> No cry.
[music] Remember when hard work still used to pay? Could I buy a yard, raise the youth and live? Okay. But then the bankers get greedy, flip up [music] the game. Gold standard mash up. It never be the [singing] same. Boom. Economy government never want them spend [music] money drop the interest rate. Central bank printing money start [music] lose weight coninc get paid me believe it when [music] it [music] make me want it but only if it really legit.
[music] No recession. No crime. No recession. [music] No crime. Change up the definition. So slide, [music] no recession, no crime. Life [music] did sweet, people get rich. Time feel nice. Living big pande turning [music] back default and knock we gate but the genie up too late that fate 50 years pass need big [music] job just to survive politicians still a shot like all things alive job market sinking but [music] say it all right them twist up the data hide the truth out of sight believe it when we see we not going to miss it make me unlive [music] it, but only if it really led it. No recession. [music] No crime, no recession, no [music] crime. Change up the definition. Go. No [music] recession, no crime. You [music] them lost. Can't build no family. Population drop. This your madness of your tragedy. The rich invest in poor man leaders push [music] them agenda but no where the money went. Industry goes down [music] yet still a spin while people play the blame [music] game. Believe it when you see numbers don't match after the fact reports and cover tracks.
All right. Hello and welcome to the camel live stream. I I don't really know what I'm doing. I I'll tell you what I'm doing. I'm going to run through a few tabs and show you why I decided to go live and then I think what we'll do is just take a few questions. I have got to duck out pretty quick compared to a normal live stream. Famous last words for me, but I actually have stuff to do today. So, I'm going to need to duck out in about half an hour. I'm sure we will overrun that because we always overrun. [laughter] But that's cuz I like doing it. That's cuz it's fun to hang out with you guys. So hopefully you can see the chat. I I'm still under matrix attack. Every time I get uh used to going live and all of this kind of stuff, they change something somewhere in OBS or in um uh YouTube and everything ends up kind of jank again. But I think we I think we're more or less there. You guys are saying you can hear me and I'm sure you can see this. So I think that means we're good to go. So yeah, thank you all for showing up. Can we get to 40k subs before 2026? I hope so. I think we're on pace just about. If you're not subscribed, do do that. Help us out.
Look, I'm going to run through a couple of things and then I'll just take some questions and look at some charts. First things first, we are right at the critical point now where if there's any validity to this at all, we should see Bitcoin move higher following gold 90-day offset. I don't really know if there's anything to this or not. And I guess it can diverge for longer than people are probably willing to tolerate. But if it's going to continue to roughly speaking follow this, then that should be the low and we should be about to move higher into next week. That that's not a call or a prediction. I'm just saying that's what this is kind of saying now. We have gotten to this point in time. Okay, that's the first thing.
The next thing is we had Nvidia earnings. And how funny is it, right? I always say cycles are in control. everything else is narrative and the market just uses whatever is available to explain away the price action. Right? Now, [laughter] this narrative I think illustrates just how silly narratives are. Right? It's like if we now get a swing low, and I'm going to talk about that in a moment for Bitcoin. If we now confirm the cycle is, you know, a new cycle has begun, we got a weekly cycle low in place, next week is a big green candle for Bitcoin, then a lot of the market is going to go, well, that's cuz Nvidia beat earnings, right? But I mean, really think about what we're saying here. We are just clutching at straws. We're doing our best to kind of grab hold of anything at all to explain away the upside rather than just say cycles are in control, right? But you know, the beautiful thing is it doesn't really matter to us. Everyone else can concern themselves with the narrative. We'll just keep pushing. This is the current Bitcoin sentiment. And this is the first kind of point I wanted to make today. Okay? Because whilst I retweeted this just yesterday, you can see here I posted this chart on March 28th. Okay? Now, if we pull up a Bitcoin chart very quickly and scroll back to the 28th of March, you will see that was right around here where my cursor is. Okay, just 10 days, I might add, before the ultimate low. Where's the low? There. Okay, and that's where I think we are today. You guys will also remember we went live back here and we were saying, "Look guys, just wait for a daily close, wait for a trend line break. It's premature to make any judgment calls." And so I thought it would be somewhat poetic, okay, to do a live stream today and say, "Guys, just wait for a trend line break. Just wait for a daily close. Sentiment's not that bad right now. Excuse me. Sentiment is terrible right now, but the situation is not that bad, right? It's actually not that bad in terms of technical setup, but the sentiment is very, very bad. This is the current Bitcoin sentiment. Okay, straight to zero, just like it was back in March. And of course, we did not go straight to zero. Okay, so that's the next set of points to make.
Apart from 95% of all Bitcoin bought in the last 155 days now underwater, which is higher than the C19 crash and higher than the FTX blowout. So really think about that when we're talking about extreme sentiments and reaching oversold conditions here. This is more extreme and more oversold than what was perceived to be one of the biggest exchanges at the time. Literally getting caught taking customer money and not buying crypto with it, right? [laughter] Gambling with no stop-loss. Like their risk management department used to laugh on podcasts about the way they stay in trades is by not having a stop-loss, right? That that literally happened, remember? Okay. Then this company blows up and we still weren't as oversold as we are now. Okay? And you know the C19 era, how bad was that, right? Nobody knew how bad that was going to be. They locked the whole world down, yada yada yada. You know, all of that. We all went through that just a few years ago. And we're even worse than this today. Okay. So, how overdone are we really? I think we have to ask that question. And I really think this is what the majority of market participants are expecting. I think for some reason they are now thinking cycles don't exist anymore or this is going to be the first weekly cycle low that doesn't produce a swing on the chart, right? This is going to be the first weekly cycle low ever where I just keep saying wait for a trend line break and we go all the way to zero, right? But obviously that's not how it works. Like the tide esbs and it flows, okay? And we're just waiting for the next flow or the next or I don't know what I don't know what the analogy is, but I'm sure you know what I'm saying. [clears throat]
So then the last thing is or the last couple of things, we apparently are not really going to see a cut in December at least according to the bond market. It can always surprise, but typically speaking, I've never really seen it to be honest. So, I would think something's got to change here. Okay? Something's got to happen to the 10-year yield to push it lower so we can repric the rates. And we're running out of time because December the 10th is pretty close now. Okay. So, I would think we're going to get some news driven catalyst. I'm still calling for that. Some guys were pointing out maybe a Jolts data set coming out today. Although apparently a lot of people have been telling me that that's no longer coming out, which again I make the case is very speurious timing, but we'll see. I did have this tab open here. I wanted to see if we could see anything. I mean, allegedly we're getting unemployment rate today. Is this right? Yeah. November 20th. That's today, right? Yeah. So, allegedly, okay, there might be some unemployment data. Non-farm payrolls. Okay. jobless claims, all this kind of stuff could be conducive to some market moving material. Right now, with that said, we should check at the cycles, okay? Because the cycles for Bitcoin are close to a turn. They should be due to bottom as we know. Okay? The cycles for the stock market, however, look suspiciously like that was a left translation before we head down to the weekly cycle. And if you really think about it, this would be one right trans, two, three right trans, left trans failure into the weekly cycle low. Okay, major buying opportunity into year end for the Santa rally. I'm going to be adding a bunch of positions. I already started adding. Actually, yesterday I added the first short-term leverage trade in the level three member section. So, I expect to keep adding out of the upcoming dip and especially once Bitcoin confirms a swing. I expect to be adding more positions into the end of the year and maybe even against all of my expectations pushing these trades into January. I didn't really think we would see that, but who knows, right? Got to be open to everything and flexible all the time. But the fact that this cycle is down for a few more days says to me that maybe just maybe this jobs data is going to get handled by the market as bearish. Okay, irrespective of what it actually is. So that's pretty much the market summary. Okay, I don't think there's anything else to say.
Silver and gold still deciding whether or not they want to continue to push or not. And doesn't really matter to us cuz we already caught that. Got a little bit of exposure. And if it is going to roll over, fine. We'll just take the money and and leave completely. The 10-year yield. I mean, I really want to see it move up here because it sets up the TLT trade, but I don't think there's enough time for this to happen. So, we'll see. I don't know what's going to happen here. Where did all my lines go? Okay, more matrix attacks. Great. Uh, and then the last thing was the Dixie. Did we find a low yet? I think we should have. Yeah, as expected. Indicator found the low in the window. Pushing higher. Okay, so we'll see. Does it left translate and fail? That would be good. That would set up a bit of risk on into the end of the year. And if not, then I guess we've already found the inverted three-year cycle low and deflation is much closer than many people think. Okay.
Now, I will say one more thing before I check into the comment section and stuff. I see a lot of people talking about a bubble pop. A lot of people talking about a yen carry trade unwind. A lot of people talking about the end of the world and financial crisis and calling tops and blah blah blah blah blah. Honestly, I think those people are wrong. I really do. I just don't see any kind of bubble pop yet. I think this market can go a lot higher in the short term. And I maintain my bullish posture at the moment. Um especially with how bad sentiment has been soured, especially with how many people have been in my comment section talking about how they sold the top and shorted at 100x. But I don't believe it. It almost seems like a bot attack. Uh sentiment just seems way too destroyed. So yeah, I don't know. I don't know. But I am looking around me and thinking I probably want to be a buyer here, not a seller, which is weird. Didn't really expect to say it. But then again, in all fairness, I didn't expect to be a huge buyer out of these April lows, right? I added all sorts of exposure here. Gold mining stuff out of the January low, which was a bit before that. But out of this tariff tantrum spill came loads of crypto stocks. Also came things like the semiconductors ETF and the Russell 2K ETF and like a bunch of other random things, right? And you know that did really well. So now I'm kind of finding myself in the exact same situation thinking no one really wants to buy here. Everyone wants to call the top. Everyone wants to say yen carry trade unwind and blah blah blah. And I want to put both my middle fingers high above my head and say I'm really a contrarian and I'm really going to buy the blood again in front of everyone. Right? That's what we do here. [laughter] And I keep getting away with it. There will probably be a time when I don't. Okay? But so far I just keep getting away with it. So why should I bet against something that is proven to have worked, right? I'm just going to buy the dip and I'm going to see what happens. As always, we manage risk. We have stop losses. That's what risk management and stop losses are for. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Okay? But I don't know, man. I don't know. I like my odds here is what I'm saying. That's why we're live because we said the exact same thing back here. And I've got a bit of dja vu. So, we'll find out. Okay. There's always a nonzero probability. It's this. [laughter] But I think this is as close to zero as you can get in markets. I really don't believe Bitcoin is going to go in a straight line to zero without a single trend line break. There's a first time for everything though, I guess. Right.
So, I'm going to have a sip of Coke and take some comments. Let's find some comments. What is this? I don't know what I'm doing. Wait. Oh, we have got one. Let's go. 365 days of silver. Hello, brother. Hope you're good. Been a while. live chat. Uh, anyone say it's 100% bare market or 100% continued bull cycle? Just chatting. Yeah, no one knows anything, right? No one knows anything at all. We'll just keep taking it one day at a time.
First of all, thanks for doing us song name and singer at the beginning of this video. Okay. Yeah, I should have posted it. I will find it for you now. Hang on. Where is it? Here you go. This is what you need. Check out Gizmo's album. He'll hook you up with all the bangers. Steve, welcome to being a level three member. Thank you for joining. Please make sure you go and watch the past couple of videos so you know what we're doing and why. And check out the post tab as well so you can see our trades with the exact levels for entering stop loss and what we're holding that kind of stuff. Camel doing coke confirmed. Yeah, diet coke [laughter] massive crash today. I don't know. I don't think so. I really don't think so. I'll tell you why I don't think so. Actually, I I made a slice video about this this morning. Uh I was saying like you know fear and greed for the S&P is not my favorite metric okay but it's extreme fear and we are 4% off the highs or something. And if you take today's candle after the Nvidia results, less than 3% off the highs, right? as of the time of recording, and it's taken something like 17 sessions to get there. Okay, that's not what a bubble pop looks like. Bubbles when they pop look like this. Okay, in fact, as I was saying to the slice crew earlier today, this looks like a bubble pop. Right? That right there was top to bottom something like 22% in 30 trading days or there or thereabouts. 33. Okay. Like that's what a bubble pop looks like. Now I know this V-shaped out of here. Fine. But even the yen carry trade unwind 10% in a straight line in two weeks, right? That's what a bubble pop looks like. It's just relentless selling. Right? Look at the C19 spill. Okay? That's what a bubble pop looks like. Now, I know none of these are actually bubble pops, but but that's what a bubble pop normally looks like. And then at the hard right edge, we've got 17 days to move down 3%. Sentiment is an extreme fear. Everyone's got one foot out the door. This is coming off the back of insane unprecedented performance since the April low, right? I mean, look at this. 42% since April in one weekly cycle for the S&P 500. Okay? and one, two, three right transs and a left trans to give the weekly cycle. Nothing is really out of the ordinary here apart from the amount of strength on the way up. But in terms of cycles, it's just a weekly cycle reset. Okay. And again, you know, calling this a bubble pop 3% in 17 days. Like I've ne Show me another bubble pop that behaves that way, right? That's not what they look like. And again, as I was showing the slice crew this morning, you know, people are looking at this probably zoomed in like this because this is how some people look at charts going, "Oh my gosh, the end of the world, Armageddon." Right? That's what they're doing. But the reality is so far it's a lower high below that. Okay. And some of this volatility has probably been greatly reduced. Now, could jobs or something spike this higher? Yeah. Okay. But look, this does not look like a bubble pop. This looks a lot more like a bubble pop, right? This all the way up to 66 in a single candle looks like a bubble pop, right? Same for the C19 plunge. Okay, this is when stuff hits the fan, but at the hard right edge, it's pretty premature to be calling this a bubble pop to be honest, right? That's just the way I see it. And I know sentiment's destroyed because like people if you're holding Fcoin or something and it's down 98% since April or whatever, feels like the end of the world. But you can't judge the broader market based on a couple of, you know, bad altcoin picks or something. So that's that's my thought. I don't think it's a bubble. I don't think it's a massive crash yet. It could it can change. It could change quickly, right? Risk happens fast. But right now, I mean, I've got too many profitable trades for this to be for this to be a bubble pop, right? Like things start to get stopped out back to back to back daily, you know, day in day out. And it just seems weird that we haven't got anything like that and people are trying to call the top here. I don't think it's right.
How's the family doing? Family's all good, thank you. My son is progressing very fast and it's really cool to watch watch it happen. And it's been really cool watching my wife as well. But my wife is takes it really seriously and has been taking him out to like baby groups and swimming and finding ways to do like sensory stuff and uh he's it's really working. You can tell it's really working cuz he's way way more advanced than the other babies. He's going to be big as well, which I'm really happy about. It looks like it's going to be a big baby. He's got the same frame as me. So, happy days there. We'll turn him into a little warrior. She's got to stop dressing him in dongarees first. [laughter] I'm going to let it slide until he's old enough to understand not to wear dungarees. Right. But but yeah, once all these lube tubers, that's a new one. Lube tubers. Pretty good. I might start identifying as that when people ask what I do for a living. What do you do for a living? Oh, I'm Camel. I'm a lube tuber. [laughter] I mean, that sounds like a pretty bad bottom indicator to be honest. Waiting for Jim Kramer. He's going to say different things every day of the week. You know, he's going to call the bottom and he's going to call the top all in the same day. So, I wouldn't worry about that. As for lube tubers, I don't know. [laughter] I don't know. I'm still laughing about lube tuber. Takes takes takes. I don't know. Um, what's my strategy for entering the market at the four year cycle low? Do you time to try? Do I try do I try to time the entry or DCA in? It depends. The last two I've just smash smash bought on the way in. But I might exercise a bit more of a DCA approach this time around. It really depends on how how clear it is, right? Like if I'm 100% confident in the setup, then I'll just buy it. And I'm like, well, it can go down a bit more, but whatever. In the scheme of things, the downside's limited. the upside is unlimited. And if it looks like it really could drop another 50%, then I might be more tempted to kind of take it one day at a time or DCA into it.
There won't be an alt season because there's too many coins. I think you're probably right. Some will probably do extremely well. But as I was saying right the other day, the uh what's that what silly one my mate holds? Ilovium. Ilvium. Yeah, I think this one this kind of left translated, right? This thing left translated like the original base case for Bitcoin and then just made new bare market lows and it's still in a bare market. This was like the base case for Bitcoin. But obviously we invalidated that Bitcoin went on to do a big right translated cycle. So did some other altcoins, right? But many of them look like this. Which means weirdly enough the left translated call was right for a lot of these altcoins which means they're going to continue to bleed. If that really is a left translated high, okay, then they're going to continue to bleed until the 2026 four year cycle low. Like there's no hope of an alt season for this type of market structure if that really was a macro left translated high. So pretty wild.
Can I do a weekly cycle analysis on ETH? Yes, I can. I mean, it should be exactly the same as bitcoins, right? 32 weeks there and then divide it into like 10 I don't know 10ish maybe another 10 overdue this should be one here right realistically 22 is that Yeah, another 30. Then like another 30 to there and another 30 to thereish. Yeah, I I do think this it should be the same. It should be looking to bottom soon. The fact it's lost this trend line is not a good look, is it? Breakdown, retest, resumption, but it should be close to a turn and it should be here. Come on. There it is. So, we should be getting ready for a bounce. It's just a question of does it go to new highs or a lower high. I would say given that it's lost this structure probably has this left in it. That would be my lean. But obviously I'm not an old coin guy. I don't really know what I'm talking about with old coins and stuff like that. [snorts] Oh, Camel is a petrol head. Yeah. Yeah. Everyone wants to know, but don't worry about that. This is business. Uh camel literally 95% of meme coins, especially ETH, have topped early 2024. Yeah, that's another that's another hallmark of the left translation, right? All that major speculation happened in meme coins this cycle. NFTTS last cycle, ICOs the cycle before, but you know those meme coins doing a thousandx and kids on Pump Fun, you know, like doing crazy stuff on Pump Fun and rug pulling people at 12 years old making like tens or hundreds of thousands of pounds from rugging people and they're like, you know, children, preubescent children. That's like a pretty big hallmark of um, you know euphoric blowoff top moment, right? And it happened in the left translated window and since then most of those meme coins are just consistently in a bare market, right? And so you think people that are calling for alt season to be around the corner or for Bitcoin to maybe pump one final time and then rotate into alts like from a left translated cycle perspective that actually doesn't make any sense at all. You know, I mean it could happen. stuff can pump, right? Who who knows? Who knows? That's the whole beauty of that space, isn't it? Altcoins do random pumps for no real reason. Seemingly, sometimes you can get lucky. You can catch a pump, but but if it really was a left translated top, and it looks like it was, when you got 12 year olds rugging people on the internet, right, and doing all that degenerate stuff, then do they just trend all the way down into 2026? Is that max pain? And if it happens, what would we be able to say with hindsight? We'll be able to say, well, yeah, that's what left translation looks like. Does it then mean there's big opportunity out of the 2026 four year cycle for alts? I don't know. Maybe I would think you would need Can't believe I'm saying this, quality. I would think you would need quality alts. Uh yeah, I don't know. I don't know.
Could the April low be the yearly cycle low for ETH? No, I don't think so. Bob Lucas and the Weatherman think the top is in. Lots of people think the top is in. That's okay. You know, I'm not I got to do me. They can do them. I'll do me. We'll see. It does feel a lot like the top's in. I mean, that's been the base case for a while as well that we had two squiggles, right? yellow squiggle or red squiggle. In either case, like you know, maybe there's another high left in it, but we're still aiming for left translation in this weekly cycle. If it's this, well, then the top is in and they're right.
When we start to add additional Bitcoin stocks positions, will you move the previous stops up? Yes, we have to. That has to become invalidation from this point on. Even grandmas were rugging on pump. [laughter] Oh, some people have been gifting some stuff. Let's take a look. Um, wow. Sent gifted subs, gifted memberships. Thank you very much. If you got a uh gifted membership, say thank you in the chat. And John, who's been a member for 12 months, says, "When will the new features be added to the indicator?" I'm not sure exactly what new features you're talking about because we're adding so many things all the time. We've got a I don't know if I'm allowed to talk about it, but we've got a new we've got a new thing coming to the website which I'm super excited about and will solve the the problem of having too many tabs on the weekend's deep dive. So, I'm really excited to get that out because my weekend deep dive is using four and a half gig of RAM [laughter] because of all the tabs in Chrome. So, that's coming soon [cough] and I'm actually really excited to show you that because that's super super super useful. So, the team are building that out ASAP. If you mean like the top indicator that's still being worked on, there's a whole team behind it. There's a whole team. We'll get it out, but we're, you know, we'll get it out as quickly as we can with every update, but at the same time, quality comes first. We're not just going to push things out for no reason. So, we we'll get it right as soon as we can, and once we're 100% sure it's right, then we'll let it out.
Any new collab soon? Don't think so. I was thinking I'd like to catch up with chemo. Yeah. Feeling crispy. You can always catch up on replay. I've got to go soon. Anyway, someone's My phone's already going off. [sighs] Let's take a look at this. Oh no, it's just me mom. She All right, she can wait. Um, damn. 25 bucks. Thank you. Does it make sense that ETH left translated without dominance breaking yet? Um, thank you for the 25 bucks. Does it make sense that ETH left translated? That's a that's a higher high, isn't it? So, it didn't left translated, right translated. And dominance, let's let's be honest about dominance, right? This actually looks very much like this is one into two before three, four, and five, right? That's actually what this looks like with breakdown, retest, resumption coming, but that doesn't necessarily mean alt season is coming either, right? Like it could move down on a handful doing better than Bitcoin and Bitcoin bleeding for a while longer. alts having already crashed as much as they have could trade sideways for a while, couldn't they? And then Bitcoin could just continue to top and then this would still bring this down if alts just go sideways and Bitcoin comes off. So, I don't know. I don't know. It's not really my area as you know.
Any chance I'm tiny look at sold and XRP? Uh, do I keep in touch? So, I haven't heard from Tony in a while, but I still follow him on Twitter. Soul, I already know what this is going to look like. It's going to look like a broken down version of ETH, right? The same chart broken down, but probably a bit worse. I mean, it's hanging on to this. So, that's that. It's definitely broken there where E is, right? E is kind of here at the moment. So, a little bit ahead of that. It has got this final line in the sand. Does ETH have that final line? ETH is all the way down here, which is not really very useful for ETH, is it? And then XRP is that the wick before the moon looks decreasingly likely, doesn't it? You know, we had the wick and a moon there. Doesn't really look like that here, does it? Looks much more like this is going to continue to bleed.
So, what's Barry saying? thoughts on the potential contentious Bitcoin soft fork due to Bitcoin cor? Um, to be honest, I'm not following it. It's not something I worry about. Yeah, I don't I don't think it's going to be a big problem to be honest, Barry, but I'm not I'm not super clued into it either. I only really watched a couple of Bitcoin University videos on it and then I was like, okay, I don't really care. FCO looks good here. Indeed it does. Absolutely correct. Ian, welcome to being a level three member camel. [laughter] Brother, $50 is too much, especially after the 25. Thank you very much. Tuesday's gone. You were the big uh big tipper in the last stream as well. I remember. Thank you. I appreciate it.
Did we ever determine if Sailor was turning us back on the sinking ship? I'm not sure. I I never really I never really knew for sure. Um, but it looks pretty bad, doesn't it? Right. It It looks pretty topped tier, at least for now. Probably a bit oversold, probably due some level of counter trend bounce. But that original fractal from the 2021 cycle, I mean, eerily similar, isn't it? So, if this is all we get now and then a roll over, you know, it's back down to that hyperwave target of 35 bucks, which is a screaming buy from me. I can't wait to buy it down there, assuming it doesn't blow up in the bare market or he doesn't get forced to liquidate his Bitcoin, which I don't think he will. Something I don't know. A lot of people think he's a shady dude. I don't really think he is. I actually think he's smart enough to have this go all the way back to 35 and somehow we'll get to buy it down there and experience another 20x move plus. I think we're going to get away with it, but it's not interesting to me until we get to that 4 year cycle low window. And the hyperwave target is 35 bucks, which is a long way down. So yeah, is he abandoning ship? [laughter] I don't know. I don't know. It certainly looked like that from the from the image he posted, right?
You're guessing the job report today is going to make a market price in December rate cut. I think so. I would think so, but who really knows? [snorts]
Why don't I trade alts? Did start following your channel two years ago? I think I when I first started the channel, I was trading some alts, but then as we got towards the four year cycle low, I suddenly realized I suddenly came to the conclusion that they weren't there wasn't going to be a broad-based alt season. And so I pivoted to crypto stocks. I thought I would do better with crypto stocks than with altcoins.
If we invalidate left translation in this weekly cycle, what's my strategy? Stay long and strong. Keep pushing the trade. Full porting strategy at 35. Yeah, just be a little bit careful with that. Okay. And the reason I say that is it could go to 35 like this. Whatever it does, say 35. Okay. Trade sideways and then go to zero. Yeah. So, as always, as tempting as it is to full port 35 as soon as you see it, okay, let's make sure that actually what happens is it gets to 35, puts in a base, okay, and then starts to break into a markup campaign, which would be the signature of institutions having accumulated in here and now marking it up, right? That's where we want to say, okay, time to get fully exposed. We do not want to get to 35 bucks, full port the entire portfolio in there only to [laughter] then have it blow up and liquidated and lose everything. Yeah. So, as exciting as it is, be professional and manage that risk.
Strats finally caught a live stream. Yeah, it's going good. Thank you, bro. It's going good. Your spread bet platform has poor strategy stock for over a month. Wow. Okay, that's interesting. I wonder why. Usually they have good reason to do that. It's probably because everyone is long and they have to take the opposite side to hedge, right? That's probably why they're probably up to their eyeballs in shorts and they're like, "Oh, I don't want this thing to pump." and then we'll be forced to scramble to cover it whilst having to pay their clients the money for being to the long side. Right? Maybe that's what it is.
If the mechanics of a markup are to pull in buyers to allow offloading, why would whales miss the chance to do the same with alts? Cuz I think most [sighs] I mean I don't really know. I don't really know how alts work and how the whales operate and blah blah blah, but are these the same whales as institutions? Like are institutions holding massive bags of some altcoin down 99%. and therefore they're like, "Oh yeah, let's or organize and orchestrate a markout campaign to dump on retail." Or have they already made their money in the last two cycles and earlier this year and made off like bandits and now all that's left holding the alts is everyone else that's 99% underwater. I'm not entirely convinced that the majority of these alts are held by institutions that want to mark it up. I think they've kind of made their money and moved on, but I could be wrong, of course.
>> [cough] >> I don't look at the bener cycle used for farming and it's pretty rubbish, isn't it? [laughter] It doesn't really apply. It's not very accurate. People look back a couple of couple of cycles and go, "Oh, it nailed 2008. Oh, it nailed C19." But if you back test the whole thing, it's actually not very accurate at all. And why would it be, right? It's actually for commodities because it's based on solar cycles and solar cycles experience the growth of the grains and the corns and the wheats and that kind of thing. CLSK. I I've been saying over and over again in the member section, I didn't I didn't care about it. I didn't like the look of the chart, and I'm still staying away from it. I don't like all that weird choppiness. Um, I'm glad you're just joking. But there will be some people in here that hear me say $35 and if it gets there, will fall. So, even if it, you know, how to manage risk, it's just good to reiterate that point. Um, [laughter] £100 You're paying for my entire Christmas here. Um, [laughter] genuinely I I don't even know what to say. There's no way I'm providing £100 worth of value. If you aggregate the value for every one of the people in here together, it doesn't come to 100 pounds worth of value. Okay? So, [laughter] I can't say thank you enough. Uh, please keep your money cuz like I said, there's no way this stream is worth £100. But, um, I appreciate it nonetheless.
Good morning, Camel. Thanks for your work. You trade memes and new coins under one week old, but your cycle theory stuff helps me position and to be more risk on risk off with the port. Now you've built a good amount of cash from nothing and ready to buy the Bitcoin for your cycle again. Thank you once again. Thank you, brother. Really, really, really from the bottom of my heart. Thank you very much. I really, really appreciate that. And another 25 bucks, which is again too much. I doubt there's 25 bucks worth of value in this stream [laughter] ether to be completely honest with you. But is the play to short short strategy after a counter trend bounce? Um, you can short strategy. Okay, if I were to do it and I'm not sure that I will yet because I'm focused elsewhere at the moment, but this is how I would do it if I were to do it. Okay, if I didn't have loads of other positions to concentrate on and whatever else and I was hellbent on shorting this thing, I would probably suggest to look at something like this. Let's go to a daily time frame. Okay, now let's just draw our eyes to the fractal here and draw a trend line underneath it like this. Okay, I'd be thinking let's go short here and put a stop above this swing high maybe. Okay, and target 35 bucks for the hyperwave target. That's how I'd be thinking of doing it. So, if I get rid of this weird pen thing and put a short here [snorts] down to 35. Where's 35? About there. That's one way of doing it. Okay. And then enter on the trend line breakdown. So if I draw a tread line in here. Okay. And now if the fractal if we deviate away from this for whatever reason for a shortterm opportunity or a short-term amount of time. I can't speak anymore. Let's say we do this. Okay. Get super bullish here for a while and then roll over. Well, we could literally just treat this thing exactly the same as what I said, just the the trend line would be drawn in a slightly different place, right? We draw it there. We'd enter short on the trend line breakdown, stop above the local high, wherever that was, and then target 35 bucks again. So, I'm not really that excited about shorting this at the moment to be honest. And the reason I say that is I think the time to short was like up here right now. At the time, I wasn't really confident. I I needed to take the profit and I'm glad I did. Okay, I'm glad we managed to pretty much sell the top on this. So, that's, you know, I think I did as good as I could have possibly done here. Apart from we didn't enter short, but if we did, we would have had to ma have a massive stop and we would have had to tolerate this for a long long time before it actually started significantly moving into profit. In hindsight, yeah, all the way down to 35 would have been an unbelievably epic trade, right? But, you know, there was other things to focus on and I'm glad I didn't kind of sit through this for many, many months because this is a long time before this trade got going, right? Like 215 days basically doing nothing. So, so yeah, that's how I would short it. I don't I reckon we'll probably get better shorts in the likes of things like PLTR. Okay. Like I mean look how vertical this thing is. So at some point this will probably come tumbling down. That's probably a better short opportunity. I as well I think I potentially let's turn all this off. I think this thing potentially could look something like this out of here and then a whopping great correction back to this base. in which case again another short from here to here would probably be better. And also, excuse me, if you wait a little bit longer until the broader cycle rolls over, okay, until we start to get real recessionary numbers and consensus in the market is that we're in a recession and that kind of thing and we start to truly roll over and truly enter a bare market. At that point, you've got the momentum on your side to start looking for shorts. But trying to short in here anywhere now like you might get it right. Okay. But you need the leaders to be leading to the downside and to be catching the leaders leading. Yeah. So right now the tide is still very much going this way. Okay. And looking for shorts is like trying to catch a rogue ebed wave in the wrong direction. Whereas if you wait for the broader trend to roll over, right, the stock market, then the tide will be on your side for the shorts, right? So that's just something worth keeping in mind. Okay? Because those of you that have been with me for a long, long time will remember how many people wanted to short Nvidia all the way through this, right? People kept being like, "Can we short Nvidia? Can we short Nvidia?" And I kept saying, "No, no, no, no, no." Like, this is jumping in front of a train. It's way too early to start trying to short this thing. And loads of people shorted this thing all the way up to here and then gave up. Finally gave up shorting it in this in this neighborhood, right? But all through here it was that was a big like it was almost a community joke on the channel because people kept saying to me when can we short Nvidia and I was like don't even think about in shorting the [laughter] the the stock with the most momentum in the entire market right that is absolutely like trying to jump in front of a freight train and stop it with your bare hands. It's just like completely ridiculous. You know, once this thing truly breaks down or distributes, enters markdown, okay, somewhere in here, like then we can say, okay, clearly got a downtrend, clearly making lower lows and lower highs. Any shorts in here are highly likely to succeed. But, you know, don't get tempted into thinking you can do have a Michael Bur moment and just pinpoint the absolute high and then short it to zero because, >> [snorts] >> uh, you know, the probability of that happening is extremely low, right?
I want to check I didn't miss any of these. [cough] 1,000 RSDs. I have no idea how much that is. Or 1k RSDs. $10. [laughter] Wow. Goodness me. Um, thank you. 1K. So, did I [laughter] I I can't even read. Did you know you can search for a chart called that? Okay, which is Bitfinex Wales longs and they've been hella accurate. Give it a look. It's very interesting. Okay, we'll we'll search that now. Thank you very much for the thousand RSDs. Okay. What am I looking at? You know what? Let's add a Bitcoin one over the top. See what we can see. I'm too dumb to understand what I'm looking at, to be honest. It kind of looks like it moves inversely, except for Yeah, this starts moving up. This starts moving down. Tops, bottoms moves inversely. Tops as this goes up. Tops, bottoms, bottoms, tops, bottoms. Kind of tops a bit later. So, this is Wales piling in long here. Right. So, if we get a repeat of this section like this, then it stands to reason we might get a repeat of the blue section like this. I don't know. You made me feel like an idiot to be honest. I don't [laughter] I don't know what I'm looking at. We just count We just count time and say I'm a contrarian, you know? I don't have a high skill set. I just have cycles. Uh but yeah, that was an interesting exercise. I'm not sure what I can deduce from this, but but but maybe someone else can. [laughter]
What's the time? 12:16. Okay, I really have to go. Chew your mind to Sudinari. Okay, sorry, I'm reading random things now. >> [laughter] >> What if retail goes out? Goes out where? I don't know what you're talking about. [laughter] Good morning, Sumble. Thank you for making it to the live stream. Will I please show the DSS presset you
Use from Trading View for Bitcoin and your settings? Default settings. And you would want this one here. DSS press it bracket double smooth stochcast stochcastic and it's by H Potter. There you go. And it is default settings because it's a cycle indicator already pre-tuned for cycles. So, so that's all you need. I don't know if I mentioned this weekly time frame in the meat week on Bitcoin, right? This is the first of three candles, the second of three candles. You realize all we need here is one green candle to look something like this this week. Okay? And we've got the most textbook weekly swing low pivot inside the timing window with a trend line break with the swing low pattern. Right? The DSS Breit will cross on the weekly time frame on record bearish sentiment on record amounts of short-term holders getting wrecked as we saw saw from this at the start, you know, my goodness. And we'll be able to come back here and say the dumbest chart I've ever produced, the 90-day gold offset was [laughter] right? I mean, that is how quickly markets and sentiment and change, right? That's all we need. You do realize that if we can just close somewhere around here and then next week we can just somehow open with one of these and that's it. Ultra high probability setup to the long side here. All bears, at least for the next couple couple of weeks after this happens, are wrong. Pretty wild, right? Especially given how bearish and how destroyed sentiment is at the moment. And there is, of course, a big big risk here that we do this lower high roll over die die die zero. Okay, that's definitely a risk, but it could be the yellow squiggle too, right? And I know my yellow squiggle is not favored by many people right now. Not many people believe in it, but it's probably right more often than it's wrong. I don't know. I don't know. Maybe I've just gotten a little bit too full of hopeium here. But also, I've seen enough swing low patterns to look at this and go, "Oh, if we can just close there, it really sets that up, doesn't it? It really sets up that big green candle." What if it's this? What's gotten into me? What if is this? That would be pretty cool, right? Close enough. That is close enough for me. I don't know. [cough] Guys, please stop donating money. I really appreciate it, but goodness me. [laughter]
Do I have a plan to short gold? Not at the moment. Not at the moment. Because it could still go either way, couldn't it? There could still be another high left here, right? It could still be if it breaks down from here, then I think we've definitely got a top for the weekly cycle and we're at least a couple of daily cycle lows away. So, if you wanted to short gold, a trend line break here with a stop above here or even here, I think would be the way to do it and then maybe target this angle from back here for the weekly cycle low if you're lucky. And if there's a lot of strength, it might only make it to this level here. So, I'm not really sure the risk-reward is there completely. I was also telling people earlier on somewhere not to get too eager to short the mining stocks here because gold if it does something like this, you know, for a long time it would have had significantly elevated prices relative to just a few years ago and oil is low, which means for the miners they've got high gold prices and low expenses in the form of oil. So, the miners could continue to do reasonably well here. And thus, I don't know if I'd want to be shorting them just yet. I just think it's a little early. And then you look at silver. Subtle tell, right? Made a slight higher high here. 1, 2, 3, four. Just missing the fifth to the upside and then a bigger correction perhaps, but I just think it's a little early. It's a little early. I wouldn't really feel comfortable being short here just yet. And then some of these mining stocks look classic lower high, don't they? That's what they look like. Still Jay as well, still pushing the second trade and all sorts. But, but then some of these like Newmont almost came up, made a new high. I think one or two of them, I forget which one. Was it DRD? No. One of these Equinox. Yeah. Made a higher high. You know, subtle tells, right? Like, am I comfortable shorting here? I don't think so, personally. I think it's a little early. Now, if that doesn't, you know, if we do this grind then start to break down, then of course you can manage the risk here, right? You can go short, have a tight stop here or here, and then see what happens. But I just think it's a little early, as I've [laughter] as I've said a hundred times. So I hope that helps. I really do have to go.
Bitcoin 40k, thank you for the ISK's. I don't know what that is. I have no idea. Bitcoin 40k next year and silver outperforming Bitcoin. It could definitely be 40k next year. I don't think it'll spend much time there, but I wouldn't be surprised if it wicks down there. And to and for silver to outperform Bitcoin, I don't think so. Particularly not if Bitcoin makes it to 40k, then it might have something like a 10 or 20x in it. If we're going to left translate, get a real big pump on out of 20 trillion in printing QE. Like, if Bitcoin can't do a 10x plus, then it's never going to. And silver is probably going to take until 2030 or even 2033 to hit its macro target, which will probably be about a 10 or 15x. So, I think Bitcoin is probably where my focus wants to be out of that four-year cycle low. And then we'll want some silver, too. But I think Bitcoin will probably do better than silver, at least in the short term. That would be my guess, right? What time is it? I really do have to go. Yeah, I stayed. [laughter] I'm super late. I have to go. Guys, thank you ever so much for being here. I really, really appreciate it. Thank you for all the support. Thank you for the uh super chats and everything else. I really appreciate all of it. I hope you found some value here. It seems that some of you did at least, so that's good. [laughter] And yeah, I guess other than that, look out for that weekly swing on Bitcoin. Like I said, you know, a big weekly swing low pattern here. And all the bears are offside at least in the short term. They've been right, but they'll be very wrong very quickly. And also look for look for these like crypto stocks to start diverging. Some of them have, right? Like Iron is one, started to started to push up here. Okay. So if this just confirmed breakout retest resumption and the cycle low window as well, right? Inside of the cycle low window, probably if it can confirm a little bit more upside, that will be picked by the indicator. Okay, probably get a breast acetic cross soon on this as well. So, yeah, and then some of the other ones look pretty good as well, like Wolf, you know, this is looking like we might have to add that [laughter] today, right? And I think Hut as well. Hut was showing some relative strength. So look for these to start to turn first, right? Remember, lead is lead, and then Bitcoin to Bitcoin to follow, right? Strong closes from these crypto stocks, I think, would have us set up to really upset a lot of people that panic sold this low. That's my thought. We'll see, right? We will see. But I hope you have a fantastic, I was going to say weekend, but will I be back tomorrow? What day is it tomorrow? It's Friday, right? Yeah. So, I'll be back tomorrow. [laughter] We'll see you all then. Um, goodness me. Is there any of these I missed? Let me just double check and then we'll get out of here. Yeah, Farcoin looks good here. All right. And on that bombshell, we will see you next week. So, yeah, thank you again for being here. Have a great weekend and rest of the week and all that stuff. And I'll see you soon. Okay, all the best.