Transcription
When you compare gold and silver pricing, bearish market sentiment for the precious metals, uh silver's decline will be a greater percentage than what we see in gold. It's on an intraday basis and and a much higher probability that 4,000 might not hold. The talk of a rate hike, that has obviously moved gold, but then whether there's military action, things that used to be highly supportive of gold have not seemed to have the same effect. He has come out solidly saying any inflation level above 2% is not acceptable. And if that's the case, when would they act? Would they act at the next FOMC meeting, September? And that's what traders and market participants are focused upon. Because the probability of a rate hike has gone up, market sentiment changes. And that is what gold is most sensitive to.
Last month you softened it saying the top might already be around 5,600. After this pullback, I mean, is 6,000 still a real year-end target or is that call changed for you? And I got to ask you, I mean, you know, you gave that $4,000 a 60 to 70% chance of holding. The levers kind of, you know, the level kind of buyers keep defending. Um it broke that this week a little bit and then clawed back, broke it a little bit, clawed back. So, I mean, in your your read, I mean, did that floor hold? Is it damaged now? What are your thoughts, Gary?
It absolutely has changed in that we're trading slightly below that and it does appear it's going to be on a closing basis we're going into the weekend. So, we might have a new floor because this floor obviously is not holding. A 4,000 is a strong psychological level, but the traders are going to bid it in where where they think it's going and not necessarily what it is. Of course, the big elephant is the Fed, but there's almost a expectation that's kind of priced in. And inflation, because that could cause or will cause, I believe, the Federal Reserve to act. And if they act, they're going to raise rates, and that's That's poison the gold is when a fixed asset, guaranteed asset, is producing more revenue where gold tends to be more speculative, although for hedging it is different. Physical accumulation, it's different. Uh but not for traders.
Yeah. Yeah. Hey Gary, I mean, pull that chart up for a second, because I mean, we just we're grateful. We're back in the studio after a little bit of time in Florida, but we got to talk a little bit about a lot of people. And you know, everyone was jittering. They're a little bit worried. So, kind of give me a little exact kind of maybe a closing price that would tell you this floor is is genuinely gone.
The market is treating a psychological support level like it never mattered in the first place. Gary Wagner notes that gold slipping beneath $4,000 shifts the technical picture, but the bigger story is that traders are pricing future Fed policy before it actually arrives. Wall Street often reacts to expectations long before official decisions, leaving late investors exposed. Next, Gary Wagner reveals why one closing price could matter more than weeks of reassuring headlines.
Well, we're looking at a daily chart of gold futures right now. I believe it's on the August contract. And if you notice these two lines here, and this is, of course, about 4,060, and it's really based upon this price activity in November. If you go back to the end of October, you've got this another little floor, and that comes in at about 3934. We obviously cracked this. We have broken below 4000 and we've tested it. Let me blow this up a little bit. We've tested it a couple of times, but you see they're just weeks meaning the open and close are represented on a candlestick by the body closing higher compared to the open screen, closing lower uh compared to the open is red. And but what you really want to watch it or look at or look for is these weeks that come in and they're coming in uh roughly they're coming in roughly at um about 3964 63 in that area. And that I believe is going to be a critical area now that we have broken through gold, but more importantly we've closed uh there and as we go into the weekend. Of course, the wildcards are Iran, the the military activity, geopolitical potential to cause this market to get excited, but I have to really put a caveat on that because we've seen many asset classes and gold specifically not moving in a A plus B equals C, meaning uh the talk of rate hike that has obviously moved gold, but then whether there's military actions, things that used to be highly supportive of gold have not seemed to have the same effect.
Markets often reveal their true priorities by what they ignore, not what they chase. According to Gary Wegner, repeated closes below key support matter more than dramatic intraday rebounds because institutional positioning favors confirmed trends over emotional headlines. Even geopolitical shocks are struggling to overpower interest rate expectations, a notable shift from previous cycles. Next, Gary Wagner exposes why today's weakest market reaction may actually be the strongest warning investors receive.
Which I interpret as what market participants are focusing on and that is interest rates, uh not geopolitical activity, and putting a priority on interest rates rather than geopolitical scenarios.
Yeah.
And I don't think it's a pivot as much as we're, you know, we're talking about a rate hike and we haven't talked about that in quite some time. So, yeah.
Yeah. Yeah, I mean, here's what struck me. I mean, you know, gold got soft inflation data this week. I mean, cooler consumer wholesale prices that rallied on it, then gave that whole move back. Now, the dollar and the yields are kind of climbing again with Fed officials openly talking about, as you mentioned, these higher rates. I mean, when a market can't hold gains on the news it wants, like that, I mean, what does that tell you? It is kind of what you just said, they're kind of relying on seeing what's happening here?
I well, I think it's a double-edged sword and the other side of the sword is the intense focus on interest rates and what the Fed's going to do. Haven't had a rate hike in a while. There hasn't been talk of that in a while. Uh our new Fed chairman has definitely put that on the table and has supported, uh I believe, a high likelihood that there will be a rate hike, specifically more than we see a rate fall, where no one is really anticipating that. He has come out solidly saying any inflation level above 2% is not acceptable and will do and take whatever steps are necessary to put a ceiling on rising inflation. And the easiest way to do that or the primary, possibly the only tool of the Fed is rates and
Gold ignored the kind of inflation data that normally fuels a rally and that disconnect deserves more attention than the headlines themselves. What Gary Wagner is highlighting is that markets are no longer rewarding favorable inflation reports because investors are repricing the entire interest rate outlook instead. When bullish news fails to lift prices, institutions often interpret that as underlying weakness while retail keeps waiting for a rebound. Next, Gary Wagner reveals why the Fed's toughest inflation language could outweigh every geopolitical headline dominating financial television.
raising them when they want to hold a cap on where certain markets are going and where if you peg it on inflation and inflation ticks up and they've said that's what will cause them to react and implement a rate hike, it changes the scenario in terms of where market participants are focusing on. I don't think they pivoted. They are reacting to the fundamental events that are occurring uh on a monetary policy basis by the Federal Reserve.
Yeah. Yeah, and the central banks. Um okay, Gary, let's I mean, of course I'm going to I'm going to be watching it's not until August, I think 27th Jackson Hole, but that's a big one here, too. Um I I want to kind of come back to that chart for a second because you you brought up an interesting fact. I mean, we kept getting that resistance at 4,000 and it feels like it would kind of, you know, be bought up a little bit. You said before that the real proof wouldn't be the bounce. It would kind of be the follow-through buying, buyers stepping back in the day after, not just a one-day pop. Uh did we actually get that?
We We do get that. We are not getting that here. What is most I won't say alarming, but telling of what we're looking at here is on a candlestick chart when the low is equal to or there's very little bottom wick. You can see here it went to these lows, uh 3954, 55, but recovered. The real body stayed solidly above 4,000 here and here. We tested 4,008. The next day it came up, and then of course, uh what we're looking at yesterday was a small incremental continuation of that move, but that was not sustainable.
A single bounce means very little if institutional buyers refuse to return the following day. Gary Wagner's argument suggests that failed follow-through buying is often a stronger warning than the initial decline because conviction is disappearing beneath the surface. Long-term investors should watch whether demand persists after volatility fades rather than celebrating temporary recoveries that quickly reverse. Next, Gary Wagner exposes why Jackson Hole could confirm whether this weakness is temporary or the start of a larger repricing cycle.
Simply put, this low here, when you compare it to the former low, which comes in above 4,000, shows you that we've clearly, at least on an intraday basis, and and a much higher probability that 4,000 might not hold. If that's the case, because that's what's important, where are we looking for potential support? I mean, is it going to fall hard? I think that if it breaks 3932, which is simply based upon this bottom that came in October, then when you look at levels of potential technical support, you know, can you call this a level of support? Not exceedingly strong, but the the key, the most important one's going to be this, but that's a huge distance. So, the key is this. What we're looking at right now, based on this bottom right here, puts a floor if in fact we're going to close and see any kind of follow-through selling, I'm going to base my revised support at around 3900 on the low end. The bottom line is
when events change and market sentiment changes, then traders react accordingly. And what they're reacting to is a is the 50 or 60 or 70% possibility probability that we will see a rate hike. It's really likely that we will see it before we see a rate cut. The question is, if that's the case, when would they act? Would they act at the next FOMC meeting? Would they act September, December kind of that thing? And that's what traders and market participants are focused upon. Because the probability of a rate hike has gone up, market sentiment changes.
Support levels really fail because of charts alone. They fail because expectations quietly change underneath them. This is where Gary Wagner's thesis shifts from technical analysis toward market psychology, where rising odds of another rate hike are becoming more influential than current economic data. Institutions continuously adjust probabilities before policy decisions arrive. While many retail investors react only after prices have already repriced the risk. Next, Gary Wagner reveals why timing the Fed no matters more than predicting inflation itself.
Yeah. Yeah, I mean gold, you know, got that soft inflation data this week and still couldn't really take off. To flip this maybe back to the bulls, I mean you before were pointing to 4370 then, you know, maybe 4500 the ceilings on the way up. I mean where does this stop being just a bounce and start being a real recovery if that happens?
Well, I'll pull up a study that has been beneficial to me in the past, uh which is basically a Fibonacci retracement. So, here are the different areas that we you can see how it's reacted at certain areas. That this particular study is not showing this is an aggressive level of moving lower, but as you can see, we've moved past this line. They put it at 4200 with a potential bottom if it does go much lower than my sentiment. But nonetheless, we could see anything happen if the Fed policy changes because that's what's going to be most important. Uh they're focused upon uh the geopolitical uncertainty in Iran, but the focus has really shifted uh in which they're putting their priority on inflation and interest rates because if inflation keeps ticking up, it's the only tool the Fed has.
Um rate hikes.
Right. Right. Uh Gary, I mean I'm I'm also looking at the charts today watching spot silver. I mean, you're looking at some of the the futures and I got to ask you about it. I mean, last month silver had just reclaimed its 200-day average, the line between an uptrend and a and a downtrend and you said it needed to kind of hold. Um it's now lost that line and it seems to be falling a little bit faster than gold.
The market keeps talking about geopolitics while trading almost entirely around central bank expectations. Gary Wagner notes that Fibonacci levels remain useful, but they become secondary when monetary policies start overwhelming every other catalyst. That should remind investors that technical signals only work when the macro backdrop allows them to and today's backdrop is dominated by interest rate risk. Next, Gary Wagner unravels why silver may be delivering the warning signal gold investors are still ignoring.
So, I mean, is is silver kind of the warning for the whole complex here? What are your thoughts on the chart?
I think that when you compare gold and silver pricing, there is an underlying theme of what we expect to happen and I believe we're seeing that also.
Yeah.
In times of strong bullish market sentiment, silver will typically outperform gold in terms of percentage gains. On the other side, when there is bearish market sentiment for the precious metals, uh silver's decline will be a greater percentage than what we see in gold. And so, that could be what you're talking about, but when you put these silver and gold side by side, you can see that they both hit an apex. And I I do have a chart for that, but I can just illustrate my point. Um May 26th, these highs that came in here correspond to the highs in gold. We go to March. If you notice, they occurred at the same time. From there, we had a defined and strong multi-month correction. We're still in it. Now, here's the thing. On a technical basis, if it continues to fall, this is the first level of technical support. But, market forces and market participants are focusing on the the probability of a interest rate hike because that, since gold is a non-performing asset, um guaranteed fixed returns on treasuries and some and whatnot, shift the attention um to the riskier aspect of gold, which has a potential to move faster and higher than other assets, but also in a correction, it will do the same thing. So, that's what they're looking at. The focus has shifted because the fundamentals have grown to a point where they're talking about rate hikes.
Silver usually amplifies whatever message the precious metals market is already sending, whether investors notice or not. According to Gary Wagner, its steeper decline reflects shifting expectations toward higher real yields rather than a collapse in long-term demand for hard assets. Historically, silver often weakens first when liquidity tightens, making it an important leading indicator instead of just a more volatile cousin to gold. Next, Gary Wagner reveals why the relationship between gold and silver could expose where institutional capital is moving next.
And that is what gold is most sensitive to. Again, gold doesn't bear interest. So, when you have attractive returns because they go up, uh you you tend to see money move out of many asset classes, including some equities, and into the fixed income arena.
Yeah, the fixed side. Hey, I mean earlier this year your wave model the pattern work you track pointed to kind of $6,000 gold. Last month you softened it saying the top might already be around 5,600. After this pullback, I mean is is is 6,000 still a real year-end target or is that call changed for you?
That call has to change. Remember, um I create models and look for certain activities based on past performance. But my mentor that really taught me more than anything else about technical analysis, following markets, and trying to forecast it is that think of a market technician as a worker on a ship and he's sitting at the the the um ender the where the propellers come out the back end of the boat and he's looking at the waves to determine uh which way the boat will go. Not is going because the waves will determine the direction. But then he would put one huge caveat. But remember, Gary, only the captain knows when he's going to turn the wheel. If you're just staring at the ocean and and not looking at a map or anything and you're just watching it, it occurs when action is taken. And that's the same in gold or any asset class to a degree in that it reacts to changes in fundamental policies and monetary policies.
The most dangerous investment mistake is assuming old price targets survive new policy realities. What Gary Wagner is highlighting is that even disciplined technical models must adapt when central bank behavior changes because no chart can predict a policy reversal in advance. Successful investors protect capital by adjusting to changing conditions instead of defending outdated forecasts that no longer match the evidence. Next, Gary Wagner exposes why the Fed, not the chart, is ultimately steering the direction of this entire market.
Yeah. And that's what we're seeing. Yeah. Listen, you talk to a lot of investors, right? And you know, this is kind of the one every gold watcher watching their position in the red kind of all always wants answered. I mean, is is this looking at the chart? Is is this the healthy kind of pullback every bull market goes through or is it the start of something that rolls over?
Well, if we count the beginning of the last strong leg of the rally, which was 39 to a top above 56, but even if you look at the body, it opened at 5400. This is the all-time record high. It comes down and makes a lower high. It then makes a lower low, lower high, lower high, lower low, all the way down. This is a textbook example of a market under pressure.
Markets really announce when optimism quietly becomes distribution. And that distinction protects or destroys portfolios. Gary Wagner's argument suggest the emerging pattern of lower highs and lower lows deserves respect because sustained weakness often develops gradually before becoming obvious to everyone. Long-term investors shouldn't confuse patience with complacency when technical deterioration continues alongside tightening monetary expectations.