Transcription
Hello everyone. Hope that you all had a wonderful weekend. You already know how we usually, you know, commence the week, right? We have our Sunday analysis, right? And with our Sunday analysis, we usually start with, you know, going through the data that we get before, you know, the week even opens, right? Before the new trading, trading week even starts. So, as we always do, we will be looking at the economic calendar, look at the specific times and the specific days where we have red folder news events for the US dollar.
So, today is the first quarter of Monday, right? And this is something I want you guys to understand. So, I'm like giving you guys this, like, before we even get into anything, right? So, today is actually the first quarter of Monday, right? Because it's the Asian session, right? I believe it's GMT time. Right now would be around 12 a.m. in the morning. I think that's it, right? So, that is the time that the algorithm actually runs off of, right? It's not EST, right? I just use EST because that's where I live, right? But anyways, don't want to get you guys confused, right? So, yes, this, right, this Asian session that we're going to have right now, which lasts from 6:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time to 12:00 a.m. midnight Eastern Standard Time, that's actually the first quarter of Monday, right? So, due to that, you know, there we would not, we should not be trading anyways, right? Because it's Asian session and we don't usually take trades in Asian session. And I'm saying this because I have a lot of questions in my DMs, you know, asking me why they can't trade on Sunday. And it's simple, Sunday is the first quarter of Monday, right? We don't, we, we don't trade in the Asian session, right?
Anyways, going on. So, as you guys can see, tomorrow, right, Monday, there is no news events, right? We have no news events on Monday, right? But Tuesday, we have news at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. Also, we have news at 10 a.m. Eastern Standard Time as well. So, by just looking at this, you can see that tomorrow will be a day that, right, we should observe, right? We should see if it leaves any specific swing highs, swing highs, right? We look if there is any, any fair gaps left, right? After they end, the day ends, the trading day ends, are, you know, after 6:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, which will be tomorrow, right? Which would actually be the real starting of the day for Tuesday, right?
So, now we're going to be speaking Eastern Standard Time again. So, Tuesday, 8:30 a.m., we have news. 10:30 a.m., we have news. And, you know, you do not want to be trading, right? Like 8:30 or 8:31 or even 10 a.m. or 10:01. You want to wait for, you know, at least 30 minutes or so, right? For the news to actually do what it's supposed to be doing. And after that, you'll get a clearer read of price, right? And remember that the best time to trade would be 9 a.m. in the morning to 10:30 a.m., right? So, both of these news events fall, right, into place, right? So, by just looking at this and just thinking about quarter trading theory, right? We could expect, you know, like 9 to 9:30, we could have manipulation. And then like 9:30, 10 to 10 to like 10:30, we could have expansion, right? So, Tuesday, we'll be looking for something to do. Tuesday, we'll be looking, you know, for a trade. If it forms, it will be there. If you're sequential SMT and there is a higher time frame premise for us to work with, then we will take action.
Also, Wednesday, you can see that we have news at 8:30 a.m., right? We have news at 8:30 a.m. this Wednesday. So, the trade would form when, if there's news at 8:30 a.m., when do you think that the trade would form? It would form in the third quarter of the New York session, right? 9 to 10:30 a.m. So, whenever you see, right, news at 8:30 a.m., you don't go into charts at the same time, right? You wait because most times, right, at 8:30, you won't really have the, you won't have the real move. There will be this maybe this shallow run of price action, you know, and maybe like the five-minute chart clear some shallow highs, then it falls right below a higher time frame, you know, pool of liquidity, and then it just reverses, right?
And the same thing goes for Thursday, right? Thursday at 8:30 a.m., we have two high impact news events. So, by just looking at this, we could, you know, anticipate that Thursday will be more volatile than 8:30, right? So, 8:30, we have news, two of them occurring at the same time. The setup will more than likely form 9 to 10:30 a.m., right? And that is due to the fact that we have news at 8:30 a.m., right? So, it usually takes like 30 minutes for the real move to either form or begin to form, right?
And the same thing goes for Friday, right? If there's news at 10:00 a.m., then we could look for the setup like after 10:30 or so, right? Which, which could, you know, be a reversal, right? For the New York session, due to the fact that this setup would more than likely form in the fourth quarter of the New York session, right? So, we have two high impact news events on Friday as well, right? Right before Q4 of the New York session begins. And Q4 is known for what? Reversal, right? Q4 is, you know, it's one of the easiest quarters to trade, right? If you pair it with sequential SMT and you have like 10:30 a.m. news or 10 a.m. news, 11:00 a.m. news, you know.
So, now we'll go into our charts. So, looking at the US dollar right now, which, you know, we all begin with all the time. This is the first thing that you should look at, right? If you could see, you know, distinct market structure or a clear draw of liquidity in regards to the US dollar, right? Then, you know that you have a clear market currently. Sadly, we do not have that, right? We do not have a way, you know, to know precisely where the US dollar should go, or we don't have a high probability marketplace right now. If you go to the weekly chart, right, you can see, right, our main draw on liquidity is here, right? But currently, we all, we have is price in between two swing highs, right? We don't have a, you know, clear draw of liquidity right now. Like, if we go on to the daily time frame, we don't have a clear intraday draw of liquidity right now. So, we would, you know, like to see price push above this high or this one. Until then, you know, Forex, you know, not interested in. But we don't need the US dollar to like, you know, trade futures, which is why I like futures, right? All you need to trade futures, really, even though the US dollar helps you, right? All you really need is ES and NQ and D, right? You don't really need the US dollar to trade futures. Most times, I just have like, I have multiple monitors, so I have one monitor with ES, NQ, and the D, and I'm relating them to one another. So, I'm watching them, right? And comparing how they move in regards to one another. And we have price right now, just basically just doing nothing here. And something, you know, that you guys could study is, remember that currently we're in Q2 in regard to the, in regard to the cyclical cycle, right? The cyclical cycle is compared off one year, right? For each quarter. So, just to show you guys the, what the last cyclical cycle did, which was Q1, it did exactly what, you know, it usually does, right? It consolidates. So, you guys can see right here, this was 2023, right? Now, this is 2024, you already know that, right? This was Q1, right? So, the true open would be the opening of this candle, which is right here, right? But for the actual move to kick in, right, we would, we would have to take out, you know, either this high or this low, right? Or this one, right? And until that happens, we would have to be, you know, functioning with the time, the lower time frame cycles, right? So, just, you know, you can study this market out and draw your higher time frame to open out, right? And wait for the, and wait for the coming months and see if price pushes above this side, then we would expect, you know, bearish price action and so on. And sequential SMT works with this, you know, this higher time frame cycle as well, right? But it just takes a longer time to pan out. So, yes, this is our higher time frame draw of liquidity, right? Currently, you can see price is just consolidating, right? And there's no clean price action, like the next gap, right? The only gaps we have right now is this, right now is a, you know, a very small gap right here, right? And then we have one here. So, we have no gaps for price to react to. We have, and we have this high that if price runs above it, you know, we could look for a retracement. If price runs below this and runs below this low, right, we could look for price to rally. But currently, there's nothing, right, to work with much in regards to the Forex market. So, I'll just skip Euro USD and GBP USD for now because it's not clean price action.
Okay, the ES. So, currently in the ES, right, we have a swing, a pro, possible swing high being formed right now, right? And we have the, I think the opening of this candle right here, right? If, if we see price even, you know, run above this high, create SMT, then it would be wise, you know, for me to, you know, take profits here if I go short, right? We had the move, you know, that we were looking for, right? We expected price to just run into the body of this candle, the opening of this candle right here, and rally above these highs, which we did get. But currently, you know, we're at all-time highs. You know, we don't have, we don't have a, you know, a volume, a volume imbalance. We don't have all the blocks up here. There's nothing here. The only thing that we could use here is time, right? And currently, right, due to the fact that tomorrow we don't have any, you know, major news events, we have to sit on our hands, right? And wait and see what Monday does, right? We want to see Monday run above this, it just drops and then closes, leaves a gap, right? And so on. So, currently, the only thing I could tell you guys about this is we just need to wait, right? And I'll get back to you guys in regard to, you know, this if the market begins to behave in a better fashion.
So, here you could see that price barely ran above these highs right here. I wouldn't even see this as a real running liquidity, right? To be honest. We have price, you know, almost closing right here, form an equal highs. So, remember, I usually look at the bodies of the candles, right? That's what I prefer to look at, right? And something else that you guys will, you know, be learning is this. So, right here. So, right here, right? You guys can see that this candle right here, this candle closed bullish. Well, this one closed bearish, right? So, there are other things to this, but, you know, this will, you know, be introduced to you guys over time, right? Of course, right? So, this has meaning behind it, right? If you go back in your charts and you see, you know, times when, you know, the market turned, it usually either turns with this happening. And this isn't SMT or anything, right? This is something else, which I will tell you the name when we actually get deep into it, right? So, this candle closed bullish and this one closed bearish, right? And if you go back into your charts, you can see, you know, multiple, you know, examples of things like this happening, right? Like, for example, I'll just do it right now. Not it. For example, I'll do it right now. So, right here. Okay, I have to switch my. And I promise this is a good one, right? So, right here, remember what I just said about this, right? If you guys go back in your charts, you can see that you see where price rallied from on this candle. It closed, better be bearish, right? And this one closed bullish. And not sure, this one just closed at the same price that it opened at, right? But we usually be focused on this one, right? So, most times when you have price, you know, rallying or turning around, you have things like this, right? The candle closing before the rally, you know, in opposite directions, right? So, you can see this candle goes bearish and this one goes bullish. And even if we go back further, right? And, you know, you try, you can go through your charts, you know, try to look for more examples, right? You have this candle of the high right here, close bearish, right? Before price fell. Remember when I was bullish here? Yeah, this was one of the reasons why because we didn't have SMT right here. We don't have SMT right here. So, why else would I think that it would go lower? This was one of the reasons why. We didn't have any PIs here either, right? This was all damn highs. So, this candle right here, close bearish. Look at this one. This closed bullish. And this one closed bullish, right? And after that, we had price just drop as we anticipated it to drop, right? So, you can study this, you know, if you have time. No one ever talked about this before. So, it would be this candle right here, right? As you guys can see, I just highlight them all. I wasn't even planning to do this today, but since the markets are like clean right now, might as well give you guys something to do. So, you see this candle right here? So, this can be a tell sign of reversals, right? And there are also other ways that you can use this, but this is just, you know, a basically just, you know, rough work introduction, something for you to study. So, just take some time and look at this and see if you take anything from it. All right. So, we have, look at it. We have this swing high. It has to be a swing high, right? Closed in bearish. But at the same time, right, in a correlated asset class, we have this, right? Closing bullish. You understand? And right here, we have this one closing bullish as well. Afterwards, we just had price drop, right? And there are multiple, you know, different ways that you could use this, right? Even down here, there's something, but we'll get to that, you know, at a later time. So, looking at these, you know, I just compare them to one another for now. We had SMT that we were looking for, but currently, you know, there's nothing much for us to do. I'd have to see, you know, Monday's price action, you know, before I actually do anything right now. And it is Asian session, right? It's Sunday. There is nothing for us to do, nothing at all. Just, we just got to watch price and wait, right?
And something else that, you know, you could study is, you know, right here. If you guys look at this, what do you see? What do you see of these lows right here? What do you see? Mind you, every time we talk, you're getting new stuff that actually worked, right? So, at these lows, right, look at this. You have, look at the candle that made the low. Do you see the candle? The one that made the low? Okay, this, the one before it made the low, right? And there was SMT right down here, right? On a lower time frame cycle, this candle right here, right? This one is bullish and this one is bearish. So, below this low, you would have an immense amount of liquidity, right? So, the only thing that would actually be left to do when price ran below this low is he just needed a lower time frame cycle SMT, right? And let's go. And if you go deeper, right, into this, into the price action right here, right? I'll show you how you have, you know, when you have candles that are not, you know, moving in the same direction, right? Then, you know, that is actually another crack in correlation as well. You know, that shows that there is incoming, there is incoming, you know, a incoming spool of engineered liquidity, right? There's liquidity getting ready to be pumped into the market, right? So, just like how you have, look at this candle right here, this one, this specific candle, right? I used across here so you can see them on, you know, the different, the different assets, right? So, this one right here, this candle right here is down closed. This one is up closed. And this one is up closed, right? So, this shows you, you know, if you're, if you're using this, you know, you can use it at the lows right here. You can see we had SMT, right? This candle is lower than this one. This one is lower than this one. This one is higher than this one, right? Once you see this, you could buy right here, right? And this, this would be your best choice because when you see this happen between certain asset classes, then you could expect a gap to be left open here, you understand that, right? And also, it works for breakers as well, right? Works for breakers as well. So, I'm like showing you different ways, you know, that you can like study this. So, even right here, right? At this, you can, right here, right? So, remember we dug into this price action last week. So, even right here, look at this candle right here. This is a breaker. It's up closed before price ran below this low. It's up closed. There was SMT here, anyways. This is up closed. Look at this one. It's up closed. Look at this breaker. It's down closed. Do you see that? So, this is a way that you can identify, right? Different candles, you know, that, you know, work as how Michael teaches that they should work, right? So, this is up closed, right here. Look at this. These candles were formed at the same time, right? That's up closed to this one. My bad, this is down closed, right? And it holds price, right? This one, what is it? It's up closed. Traditional breaker, right? And this one, you see it, it's up closed as well. So, do you see that? So, we have SMT here, right? And we have this up closed breaker, up closed breaker, then you have a down closed breaker, and it holds price. So, and you can also see, remember when I told you that you sometimes you have, right, you know, when price forms a swing high before it reverses, right? You usually have the swing highs at the same time, right? In, you know, closely related asset classes, forming, you know, closing in different directions, right? So, this one closed down, price fell. This one closed up, price fell. This one closed up, price fell. And what caused price to reverse again? The SMT. Then there was SMT, sequential SMT, price broke above this high, traded back into this candle. So, yes, this would be a high probability breaker, right? As well, due to the fact that, you know, we had, you know, a true open right here, which is, you know, something else that you can study. But yes, so I will be coming back to you guys, you know, whenever the markets are clear, you know, post charts and so on, you know, key levels or to outline, you know, any idea that I see is high probability in the market, right? So, yep, for today, that's it. You guys got some things to study, some, you know, things that we'll be talking about Wednesday, you know, that Wednesday is the day that we drop sauce. Every Wednesday, sauce, new sauce. It's not like going back to the old sauce, right? It's new things. It's things that work. It's things that, you know, are in the market, right? That's it. So, yeah, we'll talk again Wednesday. Before that, if we see anything, right, that needs, you know, to be talked about, then we'll talk about it. Until then, have a wonderful, you know, Sunday.