Transcription
Iran is going to need nuclear weapons. It's going to need nuclear weapons. And then let me just now since I've mentioned this to you and is this is going to be the real test and red line for ground forces. So right now, see everybody is on the happy page. This is all over. We're never going to escalate. This couldn't possibly happen.
So, does that mean that as we get intel about where the nuclear test is going to happen? Because right now you can bet the number one priority in MI6 and CIA and in DIA and in all the 18 intelligence agencies in the United States is is Iran getting ready to test. Now Iran may be months away from testing. It may be very far away. But this is going to be it's going to be the case that as this gets closer the incentives for Iran to actually test a nuclear weapon are going to go up. We know as a fact they have 60% enriched uranium, which is only a few weeks away from becoming 90%, which is only a few weeks after that away from becoming a test. I didn't say a delivered device on a missile, but a test. So this is not like a year or 5 years away. It couldn't possibly happen. This is exactly what you would expect. And so I think that we need to be prepared that in the fall there may well be a test because this would totally embarrass President Trump. This would be his If we go back to the Vietnam era, this is becoming Trump's Vietnam and what happened in Vietnam Lyndon Johnson kept promising everything's fine. We're all going to be fine. And then what happened was the Tet Offensive. And that Tet Offensive happened and it was it just showed everything that President Johnson was saying was not true and exaggeration. He really didn't know what he was talking about and that ended Johnson's career as a politician. That that nobody invited it wasn't just that he couldn't run for re-election. Nobody invited him to anything. [laughter] You see? So that's the that's the goal here and the way to think about what Iran wants to do to President Trump. They don't just want to push back a little bit. This is about knocking Trump out of the game. Not out of office. This isn't about knocking him out of office by the way. Not about the procedures here. This is about knocking Trump out so that he's a wounded duck for years as he stays in office. And then and so I'm laying out for you what to expect over time and this is just not none of this is being taken into account by the markets. It's not being taken into account as we go cuz we're all in this position where we couldn't we're just imagining somehow this all magically ends where we get back to February 27th. It's just not happening.
>> Yeah. Um if we look at the developments that happened today, how likely do you think those are to um to you know, get the parties into an escalation trap? The American side, the helicopter was shot down. No casualties. I think Trump's red line is you know, American servicemen being killed. None were killed in this attack. So I'm not sure whether they crossed the red line shooting down allegedly shooting down the helicopter is still under investigation. That would be my guess. And the Strait of Hormuz, but the more important one is Israel. Israel has a very different calculus in the way they respond to attacks and the way they deal with escalations. And an infiltration into Israeli territory, it brings back memories, October 7th memories. Um there's a report here now that they're starting to make statements about it. Following the initial reports of gunfire towards IDF forces operating in the Ramat Ridge Ridge area, forces operating blah blah blah. Uh, identified a terrorist on Israeli territory near the border fence with Lebanon. The forces eliminated him shortly. So, they're talking about the one Hezbollah member that was shot. There's reports that was killed. There were and and no Israeli casualties. There's reports of other infiltrations as well, potentially cell within Israel. And then you've got the rhetoric. Here they've got Al Tan Davdi, the chairman of the Margaliot Council, who one of the settlements up north. He says the following, "The Dahiyeh district in Beirut, which is Iran's red line, should have been burnt down. If there is no severe response to a terrorist infiltration into Israeli territory, we are probably really second-class citizens." So, the the drums already uh, going off. The war drums are going off. The pressure on Netanyahu is already going on for him to strike Dahiyeh again. How worried Which one's more concerning out of the two to lead to, you know, the escalation or the escalation matters?
>> Yeah, your your second point for sure. And and for the reasons you're saying, Mario. And and it's not just that the Apache came down and there's ambiguity about exactly how. Uh, appears there might be a surface-to-air missile from Iran involved. And it's not just that there was no, um, deaths that happened. Because keep in mind, Mario, we can lie about those deaths for quite some time. So, we we have established a pattern where truth is It's famously said, "Truth is the first casualty of war." That's certainly been true uh, in this case. In this war. So, uh, I think that President Trump is trying to keep down, um, these escalatory, uh, pressures because he really does want to keep things off the front pages as much as possible, uh, because he's trying to talk down the price of oil. I'm telling you, I think this will be a short-lived, uh, uh, adventure by Trump. But nonetheless, that is what he has clearly established as pattern. Uh, Israel is in a different story because as America's leverage and strategic position has weakened in the last 102 days, uh, this is weakening Israel's strategic position. And now, with the addition because of course Israel has depended a lot on America as the anchor, uh, here in the Middle East. But, uh, also, um, it is, uh, now uh, uh, Iran is establishing this new security perimeter, this newest, uh, beginning of this sphere of influence out from which more pressure will come on Israel. So, that is, uh, Israel, Netanyahu now is going to be very much under the gun to respond to even the smallest of these in incursions. You've You've identified already the emotional pull this is going to have on the Israeli public. Uh, Netanyahu's coming up for an election not too distant future. So, there's another emotional reason for this. The point I would make though, Mario, that, uh, you didn't make that I think would be useful to underscore is the Red Sea. I think people should keep coming back to Red Sea, Red Sea, Red Sea. Because the focus is going to be, uh, you know, when it bleeds it leads. The the the news media likes to follow that, but they miss sometimes the emerging, what's bubbling under the surface that's not quite that lead story. And the lead in that bubble that is, I think, the most serious one is the Houthis. They've announced in the last 24 hours that they're going to shut down, uh, shipping related to Israel.
>> He's shutting down
>> So, that could be a broad We We don't know how broad that boundary is.
>> vague on purpose. Okay. Okay.
>> Well,
>> I thought it was only Israeli ships. Okay, you're right.
>> just telling you that and even if they're they're they they didn't do it on purpose, they're going to start to see the advantages in this ambiguity going forward. So, it doesn't have to be that oh, they're the brilliant 140 IQs behind the scene. It can be they just typed it out and oh, that actually has some advantages. So, so don't I don't want to paint them as 10 ft tall, but at the same time, Mario, notice that that we have that oil inventory drawdown. What is that going to do? It makes even more precarious the consequences of any disruption of the Red Sea oil cuz as as you have been covering and everybody now knows and I've been talking about this for months is that there's been the bypass. Well, that bypass is vulnerable and who is the that bypass of several million barrels of oil a day most vulnerable to? The Houthis. They've done it before. And so, this is this is what to keep your eye on because as the world as that crisis emerges here this has been a buffer in the more detailed analyses that have been saying oh, it won't be so bad. They are all assuming that Red Sea oil buffer continues unabated. I think that's a huge question mark here as those analyses go forward. This is one of the big assumptions underneath the optimism optimist case that we're we're just not we're going to we're going to ride through these oil inventory drawdowns with bare you know, barely a problem, no global recession coming, no real harm. We'll see where this settles out, but I think one of the big issues is going to be the Red Sea.
>> True, that's actually a very important point. So, I've got a development here. Ayaz Amir, the chief of the general staff of Israel is already making it clear that it seems they will escalate. He said the Iranian attempt to set equations and change reality. We're talking about how Iran is trying to set the parameters as establish escalation dominance. The Iranian attempt to set equations and change reality will fail. The strike we carried out in Iran was preparation for a much more significant and heavy blow. So it seems the Israelis are pretty keen to continue the war with Iran.
>> and and also put it in geopolitical terms. So before the war, it was Israel that was poised to become the hegemon in the area. And Trump was helping with the Abraham Accords to establish Israel's sphere of influence. That was essentially what was the the logic of what was occurring. So Israel, the strong state, and notice Israel expanding its territory alongside of the Abraham Accords. This means Israel is the rising hegemon in the region. What you are now seeing is the tables are turning. And the tables are turning for the reasons I've been saying. And then the quote you just literally read is Israel won't let the tables turn. Well, because this is going to diminish This is going to turn Israel into a much more weakened version of where it wants to be. And so you are going to see this tension go forward. And Israel is really has really serious limits because it doesn't have B-2s. It doesn't have 30,000-lb bombs. It cannot get at Pickaxe Mountain. There there's very specific target sets here that Israel can try to nibble on the edges of, so to speak, but there is a reason why America has become Israel's guarantor. It's because, uh, example, only America could have taken out, uh, Fordow and and damaged the industrial, uh, capacity of Fordow to enrich uranium. That's not a mission Israel could have done. This is in my modeling of the of the air attack. Uh, and that's why Israel needed America to come in to do Fordow. This wasn't just a luxury. It wasn't just a political support. This was a military necessity if you were going to take out take down Fordow. At least even not kill the get the enrich uranium. I just mean literally Israel couldn't have stopped Fordow as a producting production facility. So, what you were what you were seeing here is it as America is out of the picture, at least for temporarily here, Israel is weaker and weaker and weaker by the moment. Iran is filling the power vacuum with its own bid for hegemony, which I just want to point out this process cuz I know people will keep pushing back and I'm saying, uh, um, Iran is stronger than America. No, I'm not. Uh, I am I am saying you are seeing geopolitical realities change in real time and it happens bit by bit. But, we're not talking about 20 years from now. This is not the the time frame. We're talking about things changing over the next 12 or 18 months.
>> Um, do you think Trump is able to rein in Netanyahu? We saw him telling Netanyahu not to attack a few days ago. And Netanyahu ended up attacking, then Iran attacked, but Israel did not attack again. So, I'm not sure what to make of this. The Iran the first Iranian attack was very significant. The Israeli response was significant in terms of the number of missiles. I've I've heard reports the targets in Iran were not significant, so the damage caused to Iran was not significant. And then the Iranian response to Israel was a lot more limited, but they did involve the Houthis, which I think is a warning sign to Israel, but more importantly the rest of the world and the US saying, "Hey, America, don't get that, don't get into this or we will close the Bab el-Mandeb strait and global community, if you don't rein in Israel with Trump cuz Trump can't do it alone, we might close the Bab el-Mandeb strait or we will close the Bab el-Mandeb strait."
>> You've got it.