Transcription
All right, sweet green was the next um recommendation to look at. So that's a consumer stock. Close out my software list here for a consumer; that's a restaurant, if I recall correctly. We've looked at a couple restaurants. Um, one we've not looked at, or one we've looked at that we didn't put in here, is Dutch Bros. Right, let's add Dutch Bros. What is Dutch Bros stock ticker again? Anybody remember? Oh, it's it's Bros. I could have sworn we looked at another restaurant too, other than Cava. Burger King's private. Subway's private. Oh, you can use control Z to undo, but you can't undo two things.
All right, sweet green. Inverse Creed? H I don't know if we can inverse Creed, man. That trade it's sort of supposed to. Nur might work uh, if you can predict growth rate in for restaurants; yeah, you can you can make some money. We're looking at SG, sweet green. Question is, what's the same-store growth versus the new restaurant growth? Usually same-store growth is pretty pretty low. About a billion in revenue or closing closing in on a billion in Revenue, around 800, so four-time sales give or take. Low low margins. Veryy bitty low margins. Yeah, 22% restaurant margin, but they have a ton of other expenses too. So basically break even. No, 35 is a little, unless you're talking QSR, which quick green is QSR, right? But you know they're able to grow their revenue without changing their operating expenses, so I'm not sure as the flx is in. I think maybe that's not the case, but I'm not sure. So yeah, let's see if there's cash flow here to compare it on a price-to-revenue basis against the other guys. Yeah, I think Starbucks is cook too, but I just don't know the valuation. I'm not sure on check. I don't I wouldn't rush to. I mean, lettuce is pretty cheap, so I mean there's stuff in Godel that I don't use, so I just use it the way I use it. But your tools, you know, the way you use your tools is up to you. You know, like I don't I never use charts, but we are adding TradingView charts, I'm told soon, um, and we're going to UL make our own chart library because even TradingView leaves leaves some stuff to be desired. Anyways, get back to work here.
Fixed income trading? I don't know about that, Ryan, but we could we could do fixed income information. We're not we're not going to compete with Tradebook anytime soon. I do think we could do brokerage. Interact is good enough. We're going to link brokerage API as well, but I think holders notifications. Well, holders come out once a once a quarter for most institutional holders. Here's F8, by the way. This is the other master key, and on Bloomberg, they give you a whole keyboard, but all you really need is F8 and Tilda. Now, menu is over here somewhere. Is what most people have on their keyboard is End, so that's an important key too, in Godel. If you do this key, it's an End, which for us and Bloomberg is menu. These keys are, you know, page up, page down, insert, home. We along ways to go. People are pretty sick of of Bloomberg, to be honest. At least 50% plus of Bloomberg's usage is people not really using the terminal for the things that you might think. Fact that's a competitor and a partner. Mike's old Mike hasn't cared about Bloomberg that much for a long time. It's a part-time job for him. I'm G to make some uh, I would make like a buy and sell button on a keyboard. If you really wanted to make a keyboard for traders, you could like pre-program stock like you'd have an Nvidia but or an Apple button. Icon's okay. Come on, let's get red. Red retti. What do you guys think? Can we get red?
When should you sell a business? I don't know, probably when you're tired of it or you can get uh some some number that you're happy with. I didn't short any retti at 19. Oh, was mostly sweating sweating and praying. Dear God, just this once, you let the stock go down. I'll go to church every Sunday. As soon as the stock goes down down, I'm the goat. I Don't Know Jack. People just the Bulls will run the Bulls will run red. That's insane. I I had I had a I had one of these, one of them. I had a call ion Q maybe or retti. I oversold my calls. I wish what happened. Yeah, I was short calls actually, but it wasn't a profit. All right, if you're just tuning in, I'm looking at Gan DX, which is an unprofitable Diagnostics company, genomics, Pediatric and rare diseases. Your biggest customers are like UNH and Aetna, which is no surprise. The ticker is WGS, which is a whole genome sequencing, which I would imagine is not their Big Driver here, but I could be wrong. Not too many details in the in the 10Q. Profitable for who? Traders or or sailor? I just found out an ex an X dated sailor. How funny is that? One of my ex's. Small world. The best way to get over an X is find a new one. Looks like they do do XOM testing. Looks like they do a lot of newborn screening too. People who get paid to promote penny stocks, paid Pumpers. The problem with all growth stocks is unless you really intimately know what's driving the growth, you don't really know when it's going to end. It's hard to know that the newborn it's hard to think that the newborn screening Market's going up. Yes, I'm sure QBT. It looks like most of their business is XM sequencing. It's too bad Illumina couldn't get into this business. Wu reveal us soon. Hold your horses. I am short AVXL. I cover G. Okay, so it's $3,000 for exome test. Makes sense. I don't know. I still think G should go to cash price, but I'm not going to wait. I think there are some limitations to self-improving AI that would have to be come over time, like any other technology. Yeah, same thing with Quantum. Yeah, G owes money. Technically GT has no cash. No, I don't have that high of an IQ. I don't know if too many people have IQs that high. Yeah, looks like a bubble. Okay, so how many babies would merit testing a whole genome for? Well, I don't know how many of these are babies versus patients, but a lot of people have diagnostic Mysteries. So 19,000 tests a quarter doesn't seem that high. There's 4 million babies born in the US, just the US, every year. I would think this is going to be a pretty good business. Lowkey or No Cap. This generation, man. Oo they they they separate the tests here. This good. They got whole genome, whole exome, and then they have whole exome or exome based. Exome based is actually going down, and then they have cancer, and they're telling you by Revenue, it's clear that the big growth driver here is their whole exome business. Just got to see why. Uh, NGL. No Cap. F FR FR for real for real. I'm short all the quantum stocks. Maybe I should come up with my own Quantum stock. What do you guys think? Squ Quantum? I've looked at IBKR Quantum. I'm Albanian, so an extra Q could make sense. We have extra Q's. Quantum AI, Bitcoin with VR, and we're adding VR. I didn't say they're the Swedish noo Nordisk, did I? It sounds like something I'd say. I mean, they're, you know, Sweden just doesn't have that many big companies. Okay, I like this stock. No, I would hold off uh Che. I've been saying hold off check for a long time. Stock went up a lot. Stock's back down, but I want to see how their next quarter is going. Uh, a genome is is all your genetic data, so whole genome sequencing is all of the genes as opposed to just one. No, never heard of GEDmatch. I sleep a lot. It's important to sleep.
All right, let's look at the some DXIC trials. See what the see what the uh competitor drug, best-in-class drug is. So toab titis phase three should be a New England Journal or something like that. Look like ABA was fairly similar, but I want to look at the EASI scores. This is EASI 90. Yeah, there's just no way this thing could be competitive, right? This drug abro is not even being used not too well medicine, not too well. It's a really high bar, man. AASI 90, 50%. I don't have much to do with um any of that, but I certainly remember meeting Pharmacyclics when it was like a $7 stock. I was long. I didn't stay long for the whole ride. Yeah, it certainly doesn't have to match to Pixon, but abro is uh abro is convenient too. Yeah, I'd I'd be interested in CHAG a150 or maybe even AVTX. That's uh Knack trap's new thing. Oh, no, no, that's not Knack trap's new thing. His is AKTX. 15,000 shares. I traded this man has gone from major player to biker very quickly. I like VKTX, but it's uh one day it'll be up a lot. Today is not that day. The funds do work though. It's not like it's that easy. I did see they did an offering. No, I don't like CADL. Mr. Person. I've recommended Sarah Rosenbal's book. I think we could just just let more. I think there are plenty of people who are smart enough to become doctors. They're just not enough people; they don't let enough people become doctors. The AMA controls how many people get to become doctors. I'm shocked nobody's ever tried to BRW nib for a topic dermatitis. Ever can cause dermatitis, not what you want. So it theoretically can potentiate the TH1 response, which is what medicine investor was saying earlier. They did a atomic dermatitis. H improved itch, hives and itch and hives. We're going to do phase three. Not very good. Fairly set Sig failed to meet eczema endpoint in phase two. You know, qualified is all a matter of perspective. Yeah, I know it's crazy. Andy, we'll get paid. We'll get paid, just deferred money. No CL55. It's usually not like this. This is very odd. Until turnaround might take a few years. It will definitely take a few years if it even happens. I try not to day trade. No news yet. Oral Smooths out over time, and as long as depreciation and capex are roughly the same, cash flow and net income are the same. Yeah, it's not really for for somebody who looks at the market every now and then. Godel is really useful if it's your job, you know. So if you want to pull up lots of SEC filings and use really quickly, that's kind of what it's designed for, the Pro or the semipro and you know serious amateurs. Obviously, you know what what's the difference between a pro and an amateur? It's just how how much money you have, you know, or other people paying you to manage money is basically it. Yeah, it can affect the prices. All it takes as one person. We have investors. Yeah, Godel mobile. I mean, if you use our if you use our web app, just go to Godel terminal.com on your phone, it does work. We we we did make some changes there. Looks it looks okay actually. Retti is such a good short. There's so many good trades right now. Just wish you had more Capital. It's like infinite Alpha available right for the taking. They're all on the bottom of my screen. All these are are shorts. There's some Longs too. Market's a little frothy. Most of the Pharma is fine as along if you you know if you you need negative beta to balance, but you know in trading it's all about Alpha, right? You buy a stock, you're hoping the market goes up. That's not what we do here. I like Paler. Yeah, Jack. It is what it is. You got to let you got to do some Trend following yourself. I mean, that's the thing. If you're all value Factor, you're not going to make it. You have to be long value, short value, long growth, short growth, long momentum, short momentum. Like you can't be all in. I've talked about a lot of them, Bruce, at nauseum here on Twitter space. I mean, a good one is DJT, where there's no business here. It's a company called Truth Social. It's I don't even I don't even think I have financials for it, but the thing about DJT is that I don't think anybody's realized is that they have four years. Um, yeah, I'm short ion Q. I think ion Q is technically my one of my bigger shorts, top five. So yeah, DJT is almost no S billion market cap, almost no no Revenue. You know, it it is hard to build a business from scratch, even if you are Donald Trump. If you're the president, you're in office, what are you gonna do? I don't think you have to Value truth because in four years to it's impossible. Yeah, Trump's brand isn't even worth that much. Trump's tried to sell his brand for a long time. He'll still take a million dollars for an endorsement, which is crazy. So 7 billion. Nobody's joining Truth Social, like it's just not. And then you have four years, and then after he's done with his presidency, I hate to say it, but like he's going to get less interesting as he becomes 80 and 90 and one day even passes away. So how do you make a business out of this? A really good analog is a Playboy. So I'm sure you know whether he sells any or not. I don't think it's here or there. No, he's got a different CEO. Twitter Twitter works. It's really hard to start new social networks. Listen, when you're short, you always are exposed, right? Otherwise, it'd be called free money. It's part of the game. Stocks will go up when you're short. Can't cry about it. You got to have good Longs too, but you know that's just one stock. There's about a dozen really really high-conviction shorts, and your job as a your job as a portfolio manager is to find 10 or 20 good Longs, 10 or 20 good shorts, and leave it at that. If you only do five or three or one, you know you're really going to be sweating each change in the stock, each CH each tick. But if you if you do 10 or 20, you know you're going to make money unless you're bad at this. If you're bad at this, you're going to lose money, but even even if do the math on Monti Carlo [Music] simulation, you can simulate portfolios if you know even a little bit of coding, a little bit of math. You can even do it all in Excel. I don't know what ion Q put date. The the V is jacked. I'd rather just short the stock or sell calls. I do think it's better if you if you hedge industry differences; that's even better. I don't know about shorting gril. I think ion Q will go back to where it came [Music] from. This time next year, it'll be a single-digit stock. There's nothing's changed in Quantum, man. You know, I think the idea that like, Okay, Google's interested in this, you know, Google's been interested in a lot of things, and they they Google X and moonshots and stuff like that just haven't done well. They've lost lots of money in there, and uh they want to keep losing lots of money in Quantum; they can, but Quantum is like I think Sergey or Larry's like pet toy. Sound Hound went from 4 to 16. I didn't see it. I feel embarrassed, man. Must have had a quarter six billion market cap for Sound Hound. It's AI Mania, man. Don't short any AI stock. 50 times sales to go from 14 mil to 25 mil. Pretty good. They're guiding to 33 for next quarter. That's insane. Or 20 2025, they're [Music] saying 165. That's probably conservative. See, it's one of the problems with tech tech investing is you really do have to be very close to the business and understand like what their current business Trends are exactly, which is hard to do without Insider info, and that's why so many Tech guys have gone to gone to jail. Snapchat the same price as it was last time I looked at it two years ago. Sad. I don't know how he has five 50% gross margins, man. It's all this video infrastructure just cost a fortune. He has calmed down on some of these employees too. Way too many employees. So that's been dropping, but his profitability hasn't gotten much better. He needs to drop his employee count even further. Yeah, you got to fight momentum sometimes. Um, Patagonia acquisition Revenue? Did they buy somebody? They didn't buy; they haven't bought anybody. So oh, you're talking about Sound Hound, Jackie. Got it. Got it. Got it. Got it. I didn't see that. That's pretty important. So it's not organic growth. That's crazy. Wow. Okay, then that might be a short because it's I um I have a small TTS business myself, and we're familiar with the bigger one that's doing like around 100 million AR as well, and they're not worth, you know, seven billion; they're trading for like two billion. So it was very interesting to see seven billion. TDS, text to speech, text goes in, speech comes out. We'd like that market a lot. We like Godel better though. Yeah, Jackie, they mostly just have some Auto customers, right? Like everybody offers it. Bruce, just cuz of Go Google offers something doesn't make it a good business; doesn't make it not a good business. Google offers Google Cloud, and they they're third place in Cloud. Google offers a lot of stuff; they're their last place in. Remember when Google tried a social network? I have a long list of Google Google's failed businesses. It's not hard to see they have they've killed a lot of products. We have one company. So TTS adds a little bit of Revenue to our business, but Godel is our major business now, although I'm not going to give up on TTS. Actually, wouldn't mind having one good TTS engineer as a hire, but somebody with serious speech expertise. It's not data. Um, it's an FDA decision. I don't think they have it. I I had this strange opportunity to ask the CEO face to face, which she sounded so shook when she heard the name Martin. She was like, trust me, if you're a CEO and you hear that I'm looking into your stock is often bad news. That's like hearing the Grim Reaper. Hope these guys don't blame me. I didn't do anything to them. Was your fault. You don't know biotech. You didn't spend your whole life studying that like I did. That's like saying you know you never studied physics; you're going to make a rocket ship. Rock and somebody who did studies physics says, hey, that rocket ship's not going to work, and the rocket ship blows up, and you're like like, man, it's your fault. The fake is very smart. I mean, very few people do the approach that I do, and it's not always a good thing, right? Like my Approach has upsides and downsides. I'd say across all the Wall Street guys, you know, there are people who are better investors than me because they can get conviction without the amount of work that I do, and when I really want to make a big trade, I get I try to get really convinced, and that takes a lot of time. So I might only be able to do a handful of high-conviction trades a year, whereas a guy like V can do 50 or 100, and he's going to take some lumps and be right sometimes s and wrong sometimes, but he's generally pretty good, so he's going to make a lot of money. I much rather like the surgical approach, or if I'm GNA put my name on it and I'm gonna make a big bet, I really just got to check everything. I'm not gonna leave any stone unturned. No way, no how. And that's just a different style, you know, it's a fundamentally different style, and the problem is when you're an investor, it's hard to Outsource that decision because a lot a lot of times you can't say, okay, well, I can have an analyst do it, well, unless you train your analyst for three or four years, and if you did, they might find themselves as a a big boss somewhere else, you know, it's it's hard to necessarily be able to trust somebody else for having done all their work or fil. It's not always that obvious for others if you really expect to do your work yourself. And so if you're trying to be a financial institution, you sort of do need to work at a or work at partially filled. You sort of need to have some ability to scale, and scale is very hard to do yourself. Order kind of have to find this happy medium of scale versus profits, and for me, I'd rather be sure then have like a mediocre return that's like very whatever. Like, give me five good returns. Can five good trades a year? I'm happy. Yeah, it's hard to get too excited about Snap at this price, but it's close; it's not awful, right? So Snap's not done that bad. I don't know. I kind of if I had to be long Snap, if I had to make a trade on Snap, I'd probably be long, but the way management has hung in there is kind of admirable. I think if you have a ton of work to do as an investor, Cel will help you do it faster. That's the main goal of terminal-based programs. Theoretically, even Bloomberg, there's not a whole lot on there that's not available on Yahoo Finance at the end of the day. I've had 10 20 Bloomer licenses, and I still have used Yahoo Finance from time to time or the SEC website from time to time. So at the end of the day, like the reason Bloomberg's so great is that you can just rapidly pull up a bunch of stuff. I don't I don't really use platform for crypto.