Transcription
Hello everyone and welcome to Médusa's channel. Well, it's been a little while since we've seen each other. It's been two weeks since last time, we were here on January 5th, 2026, Monday, and I was telling you to be careful, be cautious, take profits, and so on. We're going to revisit a bit of what's happened and my current position on Bitcoin. I remind you that I have a quantitative approach. The objective of my YouTube channel and my private investment circle is to observe Bitcoin, to observe the indicators that track Bitcoin. So, technical indicators, chart indicators, on-chain indicators, derivative contracts, in short, many indicators. We'll go through a number of them today. I'll show you my complete position. So, you know that my specialty is to follow the portfolios of whales, the large portfolios, and to understand the movements that are happening behind the scenes to try to know if we are in a bullish phase, a bearish phase, which is obviously driven by one thing: the imbalances between buyers and sellers. So, we are always forced to look at one thing. Are we in a period with more buyers than sellers, or more sellers than buyers? Now, you might be thinking, "Well, there are always as many buyers as sellers because when you buy, someone sells to you, obviously." But the idea here is to look at who the buyers are and who the sellers are. Are the buyers mostly whales? Are they mostly large portfolios? Are they mostly long-term investors? Or are they mostly retail, people who tend to take risks, to be more driven by their emotions, and to do things without a plan, somewhat irrationally? Well, we're going to look at all of that in this video.
Okay, so first, let's look a bit from a technical perspective at where we are. Here, we are at the level of $93,200. We had a small break of the support that was established on Friday, at the $94,000 level. This break is very much linked to the geopolitical event that took place this weekend and Donald Trump's announcement to add a 10% tariff to 8 European countries: France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, and so on. So here, we have a reaction that is rather linked to macroeconomics, but a reaction that simply brings us back to support. Now, which support am I talking about? First, the Bollinger Bands. So, you see the Bollinger Bands. Here we are on a daily chart. You have the upper band, the lower band, and the middle line of these Bollinger Bands. And this is a very important level. It's a line that has shown a lot of relevance over the past few weeks, over the past few months of trading. You see that for a long time, we oscillated within it, sometimes below, sometimes above, and so on. And then when we started to really settle below it, that happened after the crash on October 10th. You see, we had the crash, we settled below this middle line, and here we had a deviation. But you see that we didn't form a structure above this middle line. We quickly reintegrated below it. We hit resistance below it, we hit resistance here, we hit resistance here. We tried to do something here, but it wasn't enough. It wasn't enough, and there were a number of indicators that allowed us to know, that allowed us, pardon me, to know that it wasn't enough. I was obviously talking about this at the time in my private investment circle. I put it right here for you. So, you see, new video, I'm lightening the portfolio, and so on. It was December 10th, 2025. There were many, many signals that were becoming very, very worrying. So that was on December 10th. Here, we massively lightened the portfolio to protect ourselves from the coming decline. Well, obviously, it didn't fail to happen. We started to go down again. We settled below this middle line of the Bollinger Bands again. But here, here, something happened. We'll come back to it in this video, but between December 15th and December 30th, something truly occurred. The on-chain indicators took quite some time to show it to us. For what reason? Because, well, you know that when people buy through, well, whales, when they buy, they systematically create new portfolios, okay? So, if they own 10 portfolios, they'll create an 11th on which they'll buy 10 bitcoins, then a 12th on which they'll buy 100 bitcoins, and so on. And this is precisely the work, what we call heuristics, the work of Glassnode, the work of CryptoQuant, and so on, of all the on-chain indicators that we observe and that I will share with you in this video. These are advanced indicators, obviously, they cost €100 per month, or €120, or €1000 per month for some plans, for example, for Glassnode. For what reason? Because there is constant and comprehensive work to analyze the blockchain, to analyze portfolios that are linked to each other, and to say, "These three portfolios, I can observe, given the on-chain movements of these three portfolios, that they are held by the same person or entity." And so, we will group them. And so, if we had three portfolios each holding 400 bitcoins, instead of classifying them as three portfolios of less than 1000 bitcoins, we will classify them as a single portfolio holding more than 1000. Okay? 3 x 4 = 12, so 1200 bitcoins if we had three portfolios holding 400 each. So, this is all the work of Glassnode and on-chain indicators. But there is a certain latency. You have, during certain periods, particularly periods like this one where we had a huge amount of whale buying, and that's what we're going to see, we're going to track that a bit. We had a huge amount of whale buying here, okay? Between the 20th, around the 20th, around Christmas, basically around Christmas, we had a huge amount of buying here, around $87,000 to $89,000. That's why we stagnated for a while, why there was no further decline, why we didn't come to recover liquidity below this low, and so on. There was a lot of buying, and that's what drove our two bullish phases. So, we'll look at what I think for the future. I will obviously explain all of this to you in this video.
So, here, something interesting happened. We'll look at it. First, I wanted to show you at this moment, at this moment. So, here we have the movements on the exchanges, so the whale movements, the ratios, so the ratio between, well, the movements that take place by retail, so retail investors like you and me, and whales. So, when we have this blue curve making strong bullish spikes, it's an indication that the movements are made by whales. Okay? It indicates that we have whales who are aggressively positioned and who have therefore managed to reverse the trend. Obviously, given the bearish trend here, which was very deep, well-established, and powerful, to reverse it, it obviously requires a certain will and a certain buying power to absorb all of that. And well, that's what happened through this bullish spike. And then, well, we entered a period, you see, quite neutral. We were around 0.45-0.5 on this indicator. We were quite neutral. But here, you see that at that moment, well, something happened. Approximately here. We started to have whales who began to reposition themselves, and who really established something powerful here. And you see that since then, well, we are in a paradigm that is a bit different, with whales taking the lead again in the movement. The movement that was driven by small portfolios for a while, and we see that here. You had whales who drove this bearish movement. So, here you see "big whale order." Here we are looking at the average size of orders on the spot market. Simply put, we take the spot market, meaning the actual holding of Bitcoin. We're not talking about derivative contracts, we're not talking about bets on Polymarket, and so on, we're talking about the actual holding of Bitcoin. We'll look at the large orders, okay? We'll classify the orders that are executed on the blockchain. We'll look at the orders. Are they mostly medium-sized, executed by big whales, by small whales, or by retail investors here in red? Well, we always have the same structure, you see, during bottom phases. Now, I always tell you, not always, but we often have a structure where large portfolios, big whales, position themselves here and initiate a bearish movement. That was the case here, as it was the case here during the panic related to Donald Trump's tariffs. We have a period of uncertainty during which retail investors are struggling, "I buy, I sell, I get liquidated," and so on. So, it's a bit of a panic. Everyone loses a lot of capital because everyone is trying to make up for losses from the decline, and so on. It's generally not a period in which you should be very, very invested. You should rather be a spectator of what's happening or take precautions, lighten your portfolio, de-risk your portfolio, implement a risk management strategy, and so on. This is precisely the purpose of our investment circle. And so, after that, we arrive at a period where the big whales return. Okay? The big whales return and reintroduce the next movement. And that's what happened, precisely as I was telling you, between December 15th and December 30th, during that period, we had big whales positioning themselves, starting to reposition orders, and we'll see if these orders are mostly buy or sell. But obviously, you see the trend that follows, and it's mostly buy orders. But we also have confirmations through other indicators. And this is a behavior that we find regularly. For example, here in 2023. Now, I zoomed in too much. You see here, we had big whales, retail getting agitated in the middle, and then, large portfolios repositioning themselves just before the bullish movement. Then, we move back to a bullish trend where we are more on a normal pace, meaning a cruising speed where everyone is a bit active or not very active, but, well, everyone is in the market, until we reach a stagnation phase. Okay. So, here, we are probably on the verge of an upcoming movement, which will be a movement in the gray area. Now, the question is, will it be bullish? Will it be bearish? Many people are comparing this to this. We'll see if that's relevant or not, but you see that here, in any case, we have large portfolios, big whales, who are positioning themselves.
Now, let's try to look at what's happening with the whales. What are they doing? So, here we have this very interesting indicator that allows us to look at whale holdings and therefore the amount of Bitcoin held by whales based on the period. So, here you have, obviously, here you have in black the Bitcoin cycles. The 2016-2017 cycle, the cycle I entered, the cycle you probably entered here in 2020-2021, some of you perhaps here between 2024 and 2025, and so on. And what do we observe? Well, regularly during bullish phases, what do we have? We have whales taking profits and therefore reducing the amount of Bitcoin they hold. Okay? So, they reduce their portfolio exposure. They own 1000 bitcoins, they reduce it to 300. Okay? So, they sell 700 bitcoins. And well, that's what we see here, this pink curve decreasing. Now, if I show you the changes here, when we have phases below, negative phases, these are periods of lightening. Okay? Here we had a lightening. So, these are generally periods where we are in bullish phases and preparing for bearish phases. Conversely, you have purchases here, for example, here, massive purchases. Okay? So, you see here, for a long period between approximately May 2020 and here, oops, February 2021, we had massive purchases. Then at one point, you see, if we look at the top of the previous cycle here, I'm not talking about November, but the first top that occurred between, let's say, February and May 2021, we had a change here. From then on, well, we had whales who started to reduce, to reduce their exposure a bit. And from here, you see here, at the level of the pink curve, you really have at that moment the absolute number, the number of bitcoins held, that started to decrease. Okay? This is called a Wyckoff distribution phase, a typical pattern of what a Wyckoff distribution is, with peaks always a little bit higher, but a slowdown in momentum and here a massive sale of Bitcoin. This happened for several months until we reached the point where, well, the Bitcoin holdings here became very, very low. You see here the pink curve became very, very low, and then boom, a break. Obviously, all the retail investors who were buying here, who were they buying from? They were buying from whales, and therefore we had price stagnation because we had as much buying as selling. So, naturally, the price stagnates. If we have 10 buyers and 10 sellers, well, we generally agree on the same prices as previously practiced, and therefore the price stagnates. But we had a change of hands between whales and retail investors.
Well, now that we've said that, let's look a bit at what's happening in this cycle. In this cycle, let's try to look, let's remove this curve and look at what happened in previous phases at the level of this pink curve. So, here we have an increase, for example, during the Bitcoin ETF approval phase. ETF approval, I remind you, January 10th, 2024, sell the news. And from here, from the 12th, we had massive purchases. You see here, this curve of Bitcoin holdings by whales increases during a period when the price only goes down. We have a bullish acceleration until we find a peak in whale holdings here, a certain decline that occurs at what moment? At the moment when Bitcoin stagnates. Okay? Until the moment it stagnates. We will have a long period of range. Whales are not buying but not selling. It remains stagnant, and we will have to wait here, you see, approximately here, the post-Trump tariff panic period for everything related to Trump's tariffs, to see a bullish trend again and a period in which whales reposition themselves. Whales reposition themselves throughout the summer period, from May to August 2025. And from here, from mid-August, a reduction begins, a reduction during price stagnation because we had other indicators that were, that were bullish. I'm talking about Bitcoin ETFs, for example. You see here, oops, let's zoom in here. At that moment, well, you see that Bitcoin ETFs are in the green. So, even if whales are mostly selling, traditional finance is buying. So, it stagnates. We have a change of hands that this time is not from whales, who are historically in Bitcoin, to small portfolios, but this time to traditional finance. Until what? Until traditional finance decides to lighten up. And then, we have a confluence between traditional finance and large portfolios selling. Small portfolios get trapped, and we have a decline. So, I'll go back to my indicator, and we have a price decline here that starts at that moment. And you see that since then, well, since here again, this indicator, between the period around Christmas, as I explained, December to December 30th, we start to have repurchases, repurchases that are starting to be significant because here, I may have zoomed in too much. Oops, let's try to look at that. Oops, there we go. So, repurchases that are starting to become significant from that period. And you see that here, we are really starting to have a first peak in the number of bitcoins held by whales. We go from 3.06 million bitcoins to 3.118 million bitcoins. So, we're talking about over 100,000 bitcoins that were bought during these few days at the end of 2025. And here you see that it's happening again. It's happening again during, well, the days preceding, well, Donald Trump's announcement and his tariffs, we had a huge amount of buying. We went from 3.06 to 3.168 bitcoins, so almost 150,000 bitcoins bought, which is quite, which is very significant, okay? 130,000, 120,000 bitcoins bought, which is indeed very significant. And it doesn't stop there. It doesn't stop there. If I show you here, well, let's look. Where is it? Here, this indicator. Let's zoom in. So, here we have the curve representing the accumulation of Bitcoin addresses. So, you have the demand from, you see, accumulator address demand. We can see how addresses tagged by Glassnode and CryptoQuant as accumulation addresses are behaving. We are seeing that when they are buying, you see here they were buying, well, what did that precede? Here they were buying, that preceded the ATH. Okay? Here, they started to buy again, but very massively. Okay? It started here. Okay. Again, the same period, December 21st. It's several indicators that allow us to observe the same thing. What do they allow us to observe? An accumulation by people, so addresses that are traditionally tagged as accumulation. Who are they? Well, whales, okay, who are large portfolios. This is visible on many indicators, and therefore at that moment, we had a real change. And so, obviously, since the objective in our investment circle is not to be dogmatic, to be bearish, to be bearish, to necessarily bet on a return of the decline, well, when the indicators change, we change our exposure. And so, this is precisely what I explained at that time. Okay? We were here, well, precisely, it was January 12th, January 12th, we hadn't had our pump yet. We were around $90,500. I explained, well, I'm publishing an important video. Strategy update, I've decided to reinvest. So, well, I've blurred the percentages because it's, well, it's private. It's obviously information that I reserve for the investment circle where I share all my positions, the altcoins I'm positioning myself in, my strategy. You see here, I detail my strategy, which is one that accompanies risk. Okay? Depending on the risk, well, we position ourselves little by little, okay? We positioned ourselves from here. And so, where we had exited around $93,000, well, here at $90,500, the structure changes. Well, it's time to change. It's time to change your exposure. And that's what you need to do. That's what you need to target. You need to target a strategy that allows you to exit to protect yourself because at that moment, well, we had no idea if we wouldn't do this. Okay? But the idea was therefore to protect ourselves in order to re-enter at a time when we had clear confirmations of a trend reversal. The trend reversal, well, we had it, we had it a few days ago, and so that allows us not to chase the train and to be positioned here, to buy back everything at 97 after having had a bullish phase of more than $10,000. So, this is really something that, well, is learned first with experience, but is also learned obviously by having a quantitative strategy. You have indicators that allow you to know if we are in a bearish or bullish phase. And so, here, why buy back here? Well, we were precisely on our Bollinger Band support that we discussed at the beginning of the video. We were on a confluence of zones. Here, we had a large, large resistance zone. You see that we had hit resistance here, here, here, here. For a long time, we had hit resistance. We come back to it to lean on a resistance. Well, the signal was clear. We take advantage of the bullish phase. We position ourselves on Bitcoin, on altcoins, it depends on your strategy. And you see that here, well, we are still in a zone that is rather interesting. So, I think we are back on the Bollinger Bands. There is room to go a little bit lower. We must not fool ourselves. Here, if we look at the volume profile for the range period, we are here on our VAH. Okay? So, a fairly standard support. We have the possibility to reach this support, $91,300, reach this support, which are simply the peaks of this indicator, or even this one, which is the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. But here, we are on the median period, on the median point of the Bollinger Bands at a time when, as you can see, on the main indicators, whales are repositioning themselves. If I show you the number of portfolios holding more than 1000 bitcoins, well, this one shows us the same thing. Whales who, from here, started to stop their decline. You see this curve that is decreasing and here we have our inflection point at that moment, December 29th, where the number of portfolios holding between 1000, well, above 1000 bitcoins, okay, starts to increase, okay, and starts to increase here. And this is obviously something that you must follow.
Well, I won't necessarily show you everything else. So, you see here, exchanges are seeing their bitcoins leaving. So, that's rather positive. It also supports the price. You know that the price of an asset only goes up because there is an imbalance between supply and demand. And so, here, the supply is decreasing, dwindling, as the number of bitcoins is decreasing. Here, the curve has turned red, and every day bitcoins are leaving the exchange platforms to be stored. And so, when they are stored, it's not to be sold. So, here, we are rather on a bullish bias. Obviously, there is still some selling pressure that is present, which caused us to dip yesterday, during yesterday's day and evening. So, here, you see, so here we are on order book pressure. It's CoinGlass that offers us this indicator, which is very relevant. So, here, we are on the Coinbase spot markets. You see that here, we have had selling pressure for some time. But if we zoom in, you see that here, in yellow, there is a moment when we have, well, here you have the explanation. In yellow, it indicates a sudden or intensification, a change in the intensification of order book pressure. And well, you see that here, we had a change. We had pressure that was rather bearish for a while, and from this bullish candle here, well, we started to have a change here. And this is true for Coinbase Spot, but it is also true for Binance, where you see that we had bearish pressure that was holding prices down. Is it to allow large portfolios, whales, to reposition themselves at a good price, at a low price, without seeing the price completely skyrocket? Perhaps. In any case, you see that here the pressure was quite intense. Then, here, on the break, oops, we started to see real support levels that are being drawn, with price stagnation, liquidity grab. Well, for the moment, it's rather an interesting zone to reposition. We are on support, we have all the indicators telling us that it's relevant to reposition. Well, that's it. After that, there's a lot to manage once you've said that. You need to look at your strategy. Is it more relevant to buy a lot, buy a little, buy Bitcoin, buy altcoins, and so on? So, obviously, that's something we look at in our investment circle to adapt it to the strategy and do it rationally without completely panicking at that moment and risking going a bit lower, okay, and taking, I don't know, a -5% to -6% on Bitcoin with perhaps a -10% on altcoins.
If we look at BlackRock's portfolio here, so we talked about ETFs with massive financial inflows, okay? That's also something we can't deny. We have a change of hands. We had a change of hands in the past between whales and traditional finance. Now, we could have imagined that traditional finance would return Bitcoin to whales, but that small portfolios would remain spectators. Well, that's not what we have. What we have is a moment when whales are positioning themselves, but we also have traditional finance that is also positioning itself. We have 1.5 billion that has entered in the last few days. Now, let's not fool ourselves, the 1.5 billion, there are also amounts that are within the whale amounts because obviously when here we have 840 million that were bought on January 14th, well, these 840 million are then actually bought on the spot market and therefore appear when we see, well, the demand accumulation or here the, just here, whale holdings, obviously, it's something that appears here. We had a massive reversal of this blue curve. Okay, right here, we had, oops, a powerful return of buying. Oops, oops. Well, that's obviously also linked to traditional finance, but to see that we have a confluence which is buying from traditional finance, buying from whales, and especially driven by BlackRock, which here has bought nearly, well, you see, nearly $1 billion in the space of 2 days, on January 14th and 15th. Well, that's very positive. If we look specifically at BlackRock's portfolio, here we have the balance of the number of bitcoins held by BlackRock. So, you see, we have almost reached 800,000, 800,000 bitcoins. There was selling, there was selling. If I zoom in on the last three months, there was selling here from around October 30th. A certain number of bitcoins were sold. Oops, oops, oops. And here, well, we had our low point. Since December 31st, we have our inflection point, and BlackRock is accumulating again, accumulating at good prices, at price levels that are quite good. And here you see that, well, we're not talking about nothing. In a few days, we went from 770,000 to 780,000 bitcoins, 10,000 bitcoins, mind you. And here between 773 and 784, another 10,000 bitcoins. Okay? Even if there was some lightening here. Well, we are still in a period where we went from 770 to 784, okay? 15,000 bitcoins increase, which is quite significant. Okay? We look at the latest movements, but the latest movements are 300 bitcoins bought, 300 bitcoins bought, every few minutes. So, well, it's rather an interesting period, a period in which we find similarities with the period of February, for example, where, well, you see, at the time, related to Donald Trump's panic, we had a reduction in the number of bitcoins, an increase, and then when we really started to see buying again, it was April 25th, 26th, 27th, 28th. Okay? And here, well, I'll show you what it was. April 25th, 26th, 27th. Uh, oops, it was here. Oops, during that period, okay? A period that we saw materialize well on a good number of indicators, particularly at Glassnode, where we had a lot, a lot of buying.
So, I hope you enjoyed this type of video. So, obviously, you understand, my bias is rather bullish at the moment. I think that, well, we are rather well oriented. That doesn't mean that we won't have a return to previous liquidity. Okay? I remind you that I have a long-term approach, a swing trader approach. My goal is not to buy here, sell there, buy here, sell there, okay? My goal is to sell there, buy here, and sell there, and buy here. Okay? So, I take advantage of the slightly larger movements, I accept the volatility within a day, within a week. So, that obviously depends on your strategy. Okay. And that's also why I decided to make a bit fewer videos on YouTube because I don't find it very relevant to explain my strategy on a day-to-day basis when, well, ultimately, it remains quite stable, and I prefer to keep that for the private investor circle, which, given that it's invested alongside me, needs to have a clear and precise update on an ongoing basis. So, for you, well, I'm reserving, well, my clear opinion on the market and sensitive indicators. I remind you that Glassnode, these are the data that I shared with you, including here, well, I haven't talked about it, but the sell-side risk ratio, which shows here a low point, a return to areas that have been very, very relevant in the past for buying zones. Well, all of that is tier 2. So, that's only accessible if you pay $120 per month, $100 per month. So, so, here, don't hesitate if you want to join us, there's the possibility to join. Places are open. You get two training courses with that. I'm doing the little pitch for the private investment circle. Those who want it, those who don't want it, well, it's okay, too bad. At least you were able to watch the rest of the video. And for the rest, well, know that you get two training courses offered from the moment you subscribe for the first month to this private investment circle. So, a first training course which is a chart analysis training course, okay? And a second one which is a strategic analysis training course that allows you to see how to read on-chain data, understand how to place an order on an exchange, for example, if you are a beginner. Well, there are many, many things inside that. There is the detail of my strategy, in short, a lot of information. Don't hesitate, you have all the links in the description to do so. And in any case, I wish you an excellent week, and we'll see if we meet again next week or in 15 days. We'll see. Thank you. Have a good time, a good week, and good continuation to you. Thank you. Goodbye.