Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. On the agenda today, first, an analysis of BTC, especially in the short term. We will see if any setups are triggering or not. We are in contact here with this resistance zone. Then, I will share a website I discovered today about on-chain data for certain positions on perpetual contracts, whether it's wallets with significant amounts, or conversely, small wallets, which can allow us to get a sense of the market sentiment and do the opposite of what small wallets do and be in line with big wallets. Then, of course, we will analyze Ether and three altcoins. We will look at Cro because I forgot it yesterday, so I won't forget it today. We will look at Zek and Moonriver. So BTC, where are we? We still have this bounce here from the small short-term bottom we set at $80,000. A bounce to reach $91,000 here. As I told you, given the drop we had, it's not surprising to have a bounce. It wouldn't even surprise me to have a slightly more significant bounce. Okay? Because in a downtrend, it's perfectly normal to have lower lows and lower highs, of course. But to form a lower high, you need a bounce. As long as we don't have a bounce, we can't talk about a lower high. This is not a downtrend, it's a violent dump. This, on the other hand, is a downtrend. And sometimes we can have a fairly significant bounce, of course, especially when we've had such a violent dump. If I look at the previous dump from 2021, we can see that we can have quite significant bounces between this low point and this high point. We are at 44% here. Now, this is different. It's very unlikely that BTC will record 44% otherwise we would clearly be in a new uptrend in my opinion, since we would be close to making a new ATH. But we could very well revisit $99,000, $98,000, this zone. It wouldn't surprise me, perhaps going in several stages, being rejected here to then go back to this level. It's entirely possible, but in any case, what I observe is that we are still in a bearish dynamic. It's too early to talk about a bottom. In any case, a bottom takes time to form. Now, what can we do in the short term? Here, I use moving averages as I showed you. We have moved back above the 1-hour tunnel. I told you yesterday that as long as we stayed above this level, I had a bullish bias in the short term. Why? Because we are in a short-term bullish momentum, and you shouldn't try to position yourself against the momentum. You see, it's very simple. We use moving averages. If your moving averages are pointing downwards, the 3-minute, 15-minute tunnel, we look for shorts, we don't overthink it, we look for shorts. If there are pullbacks, we short. We don't short just anywhere. We wouldn't take a short here, we wouldn't take a short here. No, we wait for pullbacks to these moving averages to follow the trend. Okay? Up to here, I am bearish. Up to here, I am bearish. Up to here, I am bearish. However, when I start to move back above the moving averages, I don't say that it's time to go full moon and so on, but I am more cautious. I will perhaps take fewer short positions because I am entering a phase where we are consolidating, and we can see that since we moved back above the 15-minute tunnel, we are no longer in a short-term downtrend. And it's simply about adapting based on what we see, based on what the market shows us. And when the market shows us that it is trying to recover, that there is a buyer awakening, it's not the buyer awakening of the century, but for now there is a buyer awakening, that's a fact. Banks don't position themselves against the flow. Currently, as I said, the flow is bullish. We are in a bullish dynamic in the short term. We are moving back above the 1-hour. And here there are two invalidations. I told you, $87,700, we shouldn't go back below it. We would re-enter this strong bullish impulse. And it wouldn't be good to settle below $89,500 either, because we would lose the 15-minute tunnel. We would be in it. But if we start to really settle in and lose the 15-minute, I wouldn't be a fan of it, for my part. Regarding the daily pivot points for today, I was looking for a confluence here. If I had a pullback, that's where I would be interested in entering. If I had had a very sharp pullback, okay, with a bullish reaction, because I had a very good confluence between this daily pivot point and this 15-minute tunnel, but we didn't have a reaction. We came back to test the resistance one of our daily pivot point, okay? At this level, and we see that we have been rejected twice. So if we attack it, it's still a resistance level, and if we break it, we can aim higher technically. We can place resistance 2 of our daily pivot point here, which is at, I have configured it poorly in the style, but which is at $93,500. We see this little line here. The market likes to go from pivot point to pivot point. A pivot point can act as support. If we break it, it will act as resistance, and there's a good chance the market will reach the next one. Generally, it's quite classic, but it works pretty well, and I like these pivot points. Why? Because they are mathematical levels. I'm not a fan of drawing things on my chart. You see, I have moving averages, I have pivot points, it's mathematical. There are no fake lines. Do I place it like this? Do I place it more like that? No, it's mathematical, and I much prefer to analyze like this, for my part.
I also wanted to talk a bit about psychology, sentiment, and the market. As I said, I found an interesting little site. In fact, it's simply by going to Coin Analyse, Coin Analyse, where I simply look every day to see how the open interest is evolving, to get my opinion on market sentiment. It's interesting to have a negative funding here while we are simply in a bullish phase. Often, negative funding occurs when there are sharp drops. We see it at this level. Negative funding at this level as well. This means that overall, we have a bullish trend happening with the opening of futures. Okay? A rather bullish sentiment, and it's rather good to have this sentiment. In any case, we see that there is a bit of a contradiction between spot and futures. This movement is strongly driven by spot, which is a rather good sign. Okay? When you want bottoms, when you want a rise, you want it to happen thanks to spot and not thanks to futures. Futures can fuel the market, can impact the market, for sure, but I prefer a healthy rise, which is a rise through spot. How do I see it? Well, here we have our two indicators, the CVD which is bullish on spot while we have a bearish CVD here on futures. This shows us that we have quite a few aggressive sellers on spot while we have aggressive buyers on spot. Which is rather good because we have healthy positions opening for the market, and moreover, with all these shorts opening, we are creating liquidity above because I remind you, a short can use leverage, it has stop losses, and so on, and this can create a short squeeze if these shorts are simply triggered. After that, we don't have a big increase in open interest. It would have been more interesting to have a more significant increase. That would show us a real FOMO and a lot of shorts entering, which is not really the case currently, even if we see that we have a rather interesting movement here between the spot CVD and the futures CVD. I'm going back to the site. Yes, so I clicked here, Hyperliquid Data. In fact, it's a site that will simply take on-chain data on Hyperliquid. I remind you, it's a decentralized exchange that allows you to trade perpetual contracts. And there's nothing better than trading on a decentralized exchange because, well, not trading but observing the data. Trading yes, but also observing the data because we have reliable data. The number of times I've seen people talk about the long-short ratio on Binance and so on. We have nothing concrete, nothing verifiable. Here, it's verifiable data. Why? Because we can simply go and look at the wallets. We can go and look at the wallets. So we have simply verifiable data. What's interesting is that we have different information here. We have two types of information here. We will have portfolios based on wallet size and portfolios based on all-time PNL. Personally, I mainly look at this section. Okay? And in fact, it simply allows us to see, okay, here I have portfolios that are between $0 and $250, here between $250 and $10,000. Here between $10,000 and $50,000, $50,000 to $100,000, and so on, and so on, until we reach here with between 5 million and more. What does this allow us to see? It allows us to see, okay, how is the sentiment? We see that small portfolios currently have a very bullish sentiment, very, very bullish. Okay? Whereas here, we simply have the larger portfolios that have a neutral, or even bearish, sentiment. We can also see the history, meaning how it's going. Are they more bullish, bearish, what is their bias? Simply, as I said, here we have all the traceable addresses. We can see who is more bullish, who is bearish, and this gives an average. Now, it's not a 100% sure indicator. These people can be wrong, but in any case, it allows us to give a direction. We see that the very large portfolios here are rather bearish. As I said, I will especially monitor in the coming days how I can use this type of tool. Even though I already have ideas, I will especially check the reliability, delve deeper, observe the wallets. Are they recent wallets or wallets with a long history? And see a bit, can I look for correlations between the market evolution and the evolution of these biases? And we can go here to Position Heatmap, also to see a bit how these are bearish or bullish. Here we have the same, the size of the wallets. So, I just wanted to share this site with you. Perhaps some of you have known it for a while. I had absolutely not seen it. Okay? And I would be curious to know if those who know it use it. Well, it's simply an additional piece of data that can be used in a trading strategy. How can I use it? After having done your technical analysis, after having determined where you want to position yourself, after having determined if you are more bullish or bearish, you can see here, okay, will you behave like small portfolios or like large portfolios? So, if it interests you, you have the link right here.
Okay, so BTC, we've seen it. Let's do an Ether analysis. I even took a trade on Ether today. I'll share it with you right after. On Ether, still in a bullish dynamic, same in the short term, we are simply on a bounce. The bounce is slight, if I draw a Fibonacci from the very beginning, we have room to move. That is to say, if we have a very big bounce, we can come back to the 0.382, $3,500. It's entirely possible. That's what we did in our last cycle. Similarly, we even went higher from memory. See, I take this high. This low, okay, 0.382, first bounce. Okay, to retest this low again to then go for the 0.5 retracement. You see, there is room. There is room. If we are truly in a bear market that will last for months, there will be bounces. The most important thing is to adapt, to observe whether it's a real bounce or a bottom. And we will see that. Now, there can be traps, and I remember there was a big trap during the last cycle. You see, we see this magnificent reversal pattern with this nice break, and then we quickly re-enter. I had a few stop losses there. Okay. I invalidated a part of it because it was going well, and all the signs showed us that we were setting a bottom to reach the ATH. But when I saw that it re-entered, well, I got out. That's the importance of getting out because the person who enters and says, "Oh no, I'm not selling, it's fine, the market will pump." Sure. Afterwards, they experience a significant drop. So, I have no problem here. If I see a bottom on Ether, something like this. I'll position myself, I have no problem. However, if the market takes off and proves me right, well, good. Okay, I'll take advantage of it, I'll take my profits in the short term, I'll follow this trend. However, if the market shows me signs like re-entry, breaking the structure, I get out because it's surely going to go lower. Currently, as I said, in the short term, I'm not doing much. Now, I'm looking for longs on Ether in the very short term because we have a small bullish trend. In the medium term, I am rather bearish. In the long term, I am rather bearish, and I am waiting for a bottom to form, a bottom structure to form because in the long term, I won't take a short. I won't short Ether here, I won't do it here because my stop loss would have to be much higher. I don't have an interesting risk-reward. So, I'm mainly focusing on the short term and in the long term, I'm being patient. And yes, I took a trade on Ether which is at break-even, still ongoing but simply at break-even. This trade is quite classic, using moving averages. I remind you, I made a tutorial for those who haven't seen it. Go to my channel, click on videos, then Vegas Tunnels, the best trading indicator, complete tutorial, 15 minutes, where I share quite a few values. For those who don't know how to use it, I share a lot of advice. So, a fairly simple trade, discretionary trading, simply. This means that I adapt mainly based on what I see. I have my overall trade idea, how I will enter the position, but I wait for a bullish reaction. The difference between a mechanical trading setup and this is that I won't say I'm waiting for a bullish reaction, but I will say I'm waiting for, for example, a bullish engulfing candle, a candle that engulfs the previous one, or a W pattern. It's clear, it's simple, an algorithm can trade this setup. When we talk about discretionary trading, it's a bit more flexible. Instead of talking about a W pattern, I'll talk about a bullish reaction. You see the difference here, is that the algorithm can't trade it because what is a bullish reaction for it? It doesn't know. If we put ourselves in the shoes of a robot, that's how we reason. Mechanical trading, okay, it's simple, we have a W pattern, we buy. Whereas discretionary trading, we talk about a bullish reaction. You see, it's not the same. And this is mainly my interpretation based on what I see. And generally, mechanical trading is simpler than discretionary trading because in mechanical trading, we put less of our emotions into play. So, yes, we have this bullish trend on Ether. It's making higher highs. We've broken the 1-hour tunnel. So, a good trend that is, as usual, I don't position myself just anywhere. I place my moving averages here. I have a good confluence, as I told you earlier about BTC, this is the confluence I was looking for on Ether. We reached it. Very good confluence between the 15-minute tunnel and the daily pivot point, which is a zone where we even come back to test these previous highs. So, we are in a good zone to look for longs. We've pulled back to this zone. I'm not rushing. Okay? We shouldn't rush because, you see, we are consolidating. I have small reactions, but it's not the reaction of the century either. And here, I have a very good candle that breaks, a concrete break. We're not just on a wick, we're on a break. And I place an order on the neckline of this W. We could have taken off and never executed. I took the risk, I was rewarded, okay? Because the market came back to test this level. I placed a stop loss below the low because if we start to lose this pivot point and start to break this structure, for me, it's clearly to go lower and revisit at least the 1-hour tunnel. So, I'm in a position with the stop loss at break-even. This means I no longer risk anything on this trade, which has started well, and I have globally a stop loss above this high. I think I won't keep this trade overnight. Again, if around 10 PM, we are still here, I will see how the market develops, I might take a partial TP. In any case, I'm at BE, okay? If we come back here, I'll exit without gaining or losing anything. Otherwise, I have a TP above these highs. And I will take a partial TP if I start to see a top pattern or an inversion of my dynamic. Perhaps if we even lose the 3-minute tunnel, that's what I'm monitoring for now. I'm observing how the market is evolving here. Nothing worrying because we remain in this small short-term trend. So, I wanted to share this trade on Ether with you, and as I told you, we are in a phase where I'm not taking a lot of trades because I don't like being in this situation. I told you yesterday, I trade less, I trade with lower risk because I have a bearish 4-hour and a bullish 1-hour/15-minute. This means that I'm not getting a confluence from my multi-frame analysis, it's not all going in the same direction. I'll manage. Not everything is going in the same direction. I can still take trades, as today, but I'm still more cautious, okay? And I clearly prefer to be in the kind of phase where everything is going in the same direction. We see it well: 4-hour, 1-hour, 15-minute, all in the same direction. Here, 4-hour, 1-hour, 15-minute, not all in the same direction. Trades can be taken, but with a bit more caution. And for me, if it pushes higher, I don't know if we'll have the momentum to reach $3,200. I think we might need a retracement to get there later. But in any case, there's a big objective here, which is to reach $3,200. It's a good zone where I could take shorts if I get a bearish signal at this level. So much for Ether.
Now, regarding the altcoins that were requested, an analysis of Cro. I was supposed to analyze Cro yesterday, I skipped it, I even announced it in the video, and then at the end, no, my head was done. Well, well, well. Well, well. So, where are we with Cro? Let's remove everything. I'll go back to a completely blank chart. That way, it's much simpler, and it also shows you how I do my analysis. When I have a chart like this, from a long-term perspective, okay, what do we see? We see that overall, we are still stuck in a big range since around 2022, with higher highs but with an excess here at the limit. We can clearly see this range. In fact, we have increasingly higher lows and increasingly higher highs, but we leave and quickly re-enter. We have a large accumulation zone here, very visible. A large accumulation zone, a zone where every time we've been, we've had a W pattern form. We've retraced quite a bit. If I take from the highest point here to the lowest point, -75%. And here, we are coming back to a good localization zone to position ourselves. Why? Because we are even at the neckline of this accumulation pattern. So, we are in a good zone here. Now, the problem is that the zone is good. Very good. We know that we are in a zone where we will have an interesting risk-reward, where we can expect a bullish reaction. The problem is that for now, we don't have a bullish reaction. We still have moving averages pointing downwards. We can see it clearly. Here, I'm talking about the medium term. The 4-hour crossing the 1-hour downwards, the 1-hour pointing downwards, the highs are getting lower. We are truly in a bearish dynamic here. And what we are missing is the pattern, the signal that shows us that we are reversing. You see, we are in a bearish dynamic like this, 4-hour pointing downwards. Then we start to validate a reversal pattern that validates at this level. If I switch to a line chart, you can see it better. You see when I hide this, you see? These W structures. Bam, we break, we pullback, we reform W structures. That's good. For now, we are not doing that at all. We can clearly see that the highs are getting lower. So, Cro, we are returning to a level. It's not that we can, we have returned to an interesting level. The problem is that we don't have a bullish reaction. We can see that on the weekly, it's rather ugly what we're doing. Yes, it's rather ugly. Now, the advantage is that we have a V-shape here compared to here, we have a W structure. So this type of structure is much more powerful than this type of structure. But for now, it lacks reaction. And if BTC doesn't push and corrects, Cro will also correct. We can see it clearly. In any case, it's better to position yourself at a support level than at high levels. Like this, we've even come back to our neckline of this distribution pattern. This was not a good zone, as you can imagine, to position yourself. Analysis of Zek now. Hop. So, Zek, well, everything has pumped, everyone was talking about it at this level. It's always classic, people get interested when it pumps. The most interesting thing is always to be interested when we have our little reversal patterns. It's not easy, not all cryptos, it's not because we have a W pattern that the crypto will go x5, x10. I don't even know how much it did here, x10 easily. That's not how it works. Not all cryptos will do that. But at least, if you want to position yourself professionally, it's on this type of structure. You see that we have W structures here, that we simply have signs that show us that buyers are present, and moreover, in a good localization zone. I didn't expect. Now, that's not why I say I didn't expect it. If someone had asked me if Zek would do x10, I would have said no, probably not. It was among the somewhat dead cryptos that weren't recovering. Now, if we start saying, yes, you see, you said that cryptos that made a new ATH in 2017 would not perform again. Yes, I said that. Now, if we take all the altcoins that were around in 2017, how many have done that? Not many. There was XRP, there was XLM, at a stretch, there was Z, not many. So, we shouldn't take exceptional cases like that and generalize. Now, we are far too high to position ourselves. There is no moment to position yourself here. Frankly, on Zek, it's dead. The train has left in the long term. There's nothing to do. We'll have to wait for a very sharp retracement to position ourselves. The volatility is too high. Personally, I can't position myself on this. Now, that doesn't mean the trend is reversed. That doesn't mean we're going to go down. We can have a continuation of this rise because we are still in a bullish dynamic. We see that we are coming back to test the 4-hour tunnel. We are trying to set a bottom. Now, we are in a sort of contraction between the 1-hour tunnel acting as resistance, the 4-hour tunnel acting as support, and this large consolidation phase. We can see it clearly. Blocked between two boundaries, this lower extremity, this upper extremity. Here, we are clearly in a good configuration, in my opinion, to potentially look for longs to continue the trend in the short to medium term. Now, looking for longs doesn't mean long now. It means waiting for a signal. If we move back above the 15-minute, above the 1-hour, then we could have a signal to look for the upper extremity, which is not the case for now. What is certain is that I will rather look for longs because I have no reversal signs. I still have moving averages pointing upwards. But it would be good to move back above the 15-minute tunnel and above the 1-hour tunnel to get a small bullish signal. Last crypto. I was asked about Moonriver. I don't know at all. M O V M O V What is it? What is it? What is it? Or what is it ugly? Oh, how ugly! Well, you can guess my opinion in advance. First, let's switch to log. When you have a crypto like this that has already dropped 99%, don't expect much. Now, yes, there can be pumps. Yes, these pumps are not bad. You see, we've done x2, we might have done x10 here, who knows. Yes, we've done x10 exactly. Now, it's always normal, pumps are always proportional to volatility. Now, this is heading towards zero. There must be inflation problems, tokenomics issues, too many unlocks destroying the project, I'm convinced. And we are clearly in a downtrend. I'm using moving averages. We've come back to test the 3-day tunnel, we've set a top in it. The daily tunnel is acting as resistance. This is a chart that will head towards zero. There can be bottoms, there can be trades that can be taken. It's entirely possible, even on W structures like this, it breaks, you see, we can reach 60-80%. That's possible. Now, investing in this right now, and worse, doing dollar-cost averaging thinking I'm accumulating MOVR for the next 10-15 years, is bullshit. Okay, bullshit, alright? You're going to burn your capital. The only signal that could happen here would be to re-enter this level with a reversal pattern, with something like this. We validate this, a trade can be taken. Very simple: an entry at the time of the pullback, validation below the low, and go back to higher levels. We can aim for x2, x3, for example, if we have a bounce. But with clear validation, if we go back below the structure, it's dead. We get out, we get out. You see, in this type of trade, we attempt a long here. Either we manage to take profits well if we have a pump. If not, if we haven't taken our profits because our targets were higher, here, we get out. We get out because these are cryptos that can go to zero, that can tend towards zero, that can resemble nothing. And if it's listed on what? Listed on Binance. These are cryptos that can be delisted overnight. So, that's how it is in crypto. If it's delisted for any reason, okay, if it's delisted, it drops 50%. This is a crypto that will not perform again. It's not possible. So, be careful to also take this into account when asking about listings on cryptocurrencies, depending on volatility, depending on whether there is a, well, there is no interest for an exchange to have a crypto, to list a crypto if there are no transactions, nothing is happening. Okay, volumes won't be zero, but they won't be incredible either. So, be careful with this type of crypto. Personally, I would not position myself. I've said everything, we've covered it all. Don't hesitate to give me the altcoins you want me to analyze in future videos. And I wish you a very good evening. I'll see you tomorrow for another video.