Scalping Expert: This One Rule Helped Me 12X My Results! Every Time You Lose, Do This!

Trade inducement, lower time frame, confirmation, time window. The inducement gives me volatility, time window gives me volatility, confirmation gives me it's ready. What this unlocks for me is if I can break even very quick, it allows me to get trades that I was wrong in. I took three trades in the week. All three of those trades went into a bit of profit and then melted on me. But I was able to either catch my 1 to three or those losses just ended up being three break even trades. If you are able to be wrong in the market and take my loss, maybe even walk away with a slight profit, this is a hack.

Traders often think, I want to make a profit, so I need to learn more. I need to research more. I need to back test more. I need to journal more. I need to do more, more, more, more, more. And as I've been saying for 2 years, a restricted trader is a profitable trader. In fact, the profits is in doing less.

This year, I've been uh focusing on my first profitable year in trading was 2018. So, I started in 2015ish. By 2018, I made my first $100,000 from the markets. And this was years in the making and a grind to get there. Fast forward to 2025, I made that in 2 days. And it's crazy to think if you now understand leverage, how to navigate life, the road map that I speak about, your first entire year can be dwarfed in just a couple weeks.

The insight I'm about to share, I only came to learn this 2 months ago, and it was really reassuring. I want to say almost revolutionary, and this is why I'm excited to share it. It's the probability of Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back yet again to another episode. Um, as you can see, we'll cast that by me to be Yo, tell me though, how am I looking? Yeah, you're looking like a nice This is a new fit. Well, I wanted to, as you said, um, I'll be a guinea pig with you cuz I don't want to do this in front of a guest on the show, but I got a new designer style. I'm definitely not going to make it a usual, but street wear, blazer, collab, whatever. It's funny because you've been called UNK on your TikTok and now you're doing something else just to be like a complete opposite. That I need to understand why I'm getting UNK allegations in my 20ies. Yeah, it's been lit. I'm still not 30 yet, but yeah, not yet. But yeah, I want to kick off this episode uh with um something pretty monumental that just happened. Last week, you've had the best week of your entire career. Talk to me about that.

Okay. Um so, there's a lot of things to actually mention that are deriving from this. Number one is uh I used to have this feeling as a younger trader that I need to show up every single day and show up for every single session and be their presence and watch it through. And what I ended up doing was battling price action. So I would just be watching M1 and might not be in a POI. I might not be in the trend, but I'll just look for things and eventually when you stare at price long enough, you'll see something you like and you'll end up taking a trade. So what I've opted for in more recent years, specifically this year, I've traded less than I ordinarily would. the year prior when I was doing the I'm still doing it but last year I was more active with the public signals. I was sending a signal in at sometimes two three times a week on my on my Twitter. Uh and and I wanted to make that a performance uh of display of performance where how did I behave when I'm growing the account from zero. So in those initial trades you don't want to go into the negative A+ only be conservative risk in a certain way and then as I got to 10 20% profit then I started to act with more trade frequency. I introduced less prime setups. I started to introduce nonPOI trades and medium inducement trades. And then as I started to reach you know the 40 50% that's when things were interesting. So I can speak about this later but last year was a big year for me uh and it was a very active trading uh way and then this year I've taken a bit more of a backseat. So I've still been present in the market but with a different approach more because I've been traveling a lot more focusing on other projects. Uh trading has now taken a different lens. And the approach here is just from a longevity perspective.

Uh traders often think I want to make a profit so I need to learn more. I need to research more. I need to back test more. I need to journal more. I need to do more, more, more, more, more. And as I've been saying for two years, a restricted trader is a profitable trader. In fact, the profit is in doing less. So this year, I've been uh focusing on picking my battles. So then I'll come to a session and I'll say if I'm not in a POI, I don't have a clear trend, I don't have an inducement, I'll just close my laptop and get about my day instead of sitting there for the entire day finding ideas. So when you are selective and you pick your battles, it unlocks quite a few benefits which happened to me last month. Last month I took two trades and inspired by a lot of the guests on the show namely a long debate I had or discussion with Omar Ashra. He was like how are you going to size up in your trading? How you going to grow financially uh if you're not willing to increase risk? So I decided this month let me try risk profiles and a lot of guests on the show have mentioned pyramiding uh re-entry types and there's various ways to do it. I just thought if I found an A+ setup, I'll double my ordinary risk. So on the first trade I took last week on Monday, which was my first trade of the month, uh which I've made videos about on my Tik Tok and YouTube channel. So there's full breakdowns there, 1 hour video. Um but that trade was an A+ setup. So when I came to the day before the session, I was like, I'm in a great POI. It's an inducement POI. It's with the trend, everything I like. And then I also saw a smart money trap and medium inducement before the key window. I'm seeing all of this and I arrive to the key window. I'm like, I've got every box ideally that I would want tick. They're already ticked. This is a great day. I have now picked my battle. Today is the day I take action. And then as I watch through the session, which I'm not ordinarily doing, but today's the day I pick my battle. I watch it through and then the lower time frame is developing perfectly between EU and GU. I'm seeing the divergences as I like. I'm seeing lower time frame confirmations. I'm seeing lower time frame inducements. I'm seeing a narrative play out. So, it's not just a checklist. It's a story in price. And that story is being wonderfully painted for me. So I was like this is just a simple A+ setup and I risked double my ordinary risk which I preddecided. And the best part is and this is something I want people to really remember recognize days where you're fighting price where price is like chopping around and you're you're waiting for an entry and then it invalidates and then it comes back and it's all over the place and then you eventually get in and then you're sitting in consolidation. goes in a bit of draw down, maybe goes up a bit into profit and then hits stop loss. These battle days you can avoid and then when there is a plus day, this is how it went. I saw everything play out in the key window. I'm halfway through the key window. I see all the validations I need. Lower time frame, divergence, time, everything. And it's not often these things happen. It's only maybe twice a quarter I'll get everything ticked like this, which is why I sized up. When I see every confirmation, I'm like, perfect. I set my limit. I increase my risk. Stop loss is placed. It took 2 minutes to get into the entry once it tapped in. I was break even within 3 minutes. Take profit one within 12 minutes and take profit two my final TP 1 to 10 uh within 1 hour and 45 minutes. And I live streamed the whole thing. So there's a recording which I also showcased. This is effortless trading. I didn't have to think. I didn't have to do any psychology. I didn't have to do any risk management strategies. Take profit. It was all so easy. And when the market is easy like this, you feel invincible and and everything you touch feels like it goes into gold. But remember, these days exist. So when you're in those situations, when you're fighting the market and you're desperate and you're confused and you're in profit and then your retracement 50%, your profit is now half, it's a lot emotionally and and there's room for things to go wrong. This one was an effortless day. And when I had that day and I walked away with uh $62,000 which I showcased the proof the next day I've established a trend uh from the previous day and now I am still in discount on the higher time frame. I'm chasing a higher high. So I've come from the demand area. I'm a little bit in profit. The next day is consolidating inducing and I'm thinking well I'm continuing this bullish trend. I'm just going to make a higher high. And then the next day it was an A+ setup but it was a very good setup. So, I did my ordinary risk and therefore ended up being about $25,000 uh uh thereabouts. I think it was 24. So, in the end between two trades, we I was touching around $90,000. So, just under 100K, but this is in two trades in the entire month. No losses for the month. And both trades tap and go break even within minutes. TP1 within minutes and TP2 1 to 10 within hours. uh there's no thoughts of psychology anymore because when you're trading like this and everything's A+ every box is tick it's really really easy and then with everything else going along along in my life uh it end up being the biggest month financially of my life um and I think it's very interesting to observe my first year profitable year in trading was 2018 so I started in 2015ish by 2018 uh around November 2018 I made my first $100,000 from the markets or also in my life. I made my first $100,000 and this was years in the making on a grind to get there. Fast forward to 2025, you know, not too long later, what is 7 years later, uh I made that in uh two trades in in two days. And it's crazy to think if you now understand leverage, how to navigate life, the road map that I speak about, um you won't grow linearly like people that are doing time for money, which is incremental pay rises and and no passive incomes, no investments. It's like you're just going to grow slowly like this, but life is going to go like this. Cost of living, assets, houses, they're going to go skyhigh, but your salaries are going to go like this. Whereas in this case, if you have a correct road map, your first entire year can be dwarfed in in a handful of years, in just a couple of months or weeks. I think that's really really powerful.

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One of the things that I've heard from um from Warren Buffett, I'd like to say, was u he told a story of someone who's trying to do business with him and he was negotiating a deal and they were going back and forth discussing terms, prices, and this associate or potential partner was so easy to work with. He didn't like negotiate anything. He was like, "Whatever you think, whatever you think, it's fine. It's fine." And then when he was asked like, "Why are you just so easy with the terms? Uh I'm getting like a very good deal out of this." He was like, I don't care about doing business with you now. I care about doing business with you in 10 years from now. And that was a lesson I took of making sure you optimize for longevity. But this day also taught me a different lens of like it's not just that longevity is much more important than immediate wins. It's those wins when you're so many years into the markets or into the any career into anyone any whatever would dwarf any small penny you try to squeeze out of your first year of doing anything. So, it's so much worth it to stomach it and just optimize for years and years and years and also just know for a fact that that day will come where you'll make your entire year's worth of work in two trades. That's crazy, right? It's also it's worsened by the fact that what is a mindset like in your first year. You're pretty confused as a human. You don't understand life. You're very anxious and unsure if you've taken the right decision because the markets might not be for you. The markets might all be a scam. Is it even doable long term? So, you're battling all this anxiety and uncertainty as well. And therefore you have a very penny pinching mindset, a very aggressive and conservative mindset, it's it's a very conflicting place to be in. But when uh the the mindset I have now is very I'm a very abundant thinking person. Money flows, money leaves my pocket in abundance and comes in in abundance and that detachment to money, that feeling of like money finds me somehow through investments, through whatever money comes to me. So then I'm not chasing the markets and it might be very counterintuitive for someone in their first couple of years. was like, "Well, if you know how to profitably trade, why would you not just trade more and trade every day and and just try and go to the moon and become a billionaire or whatever?" And uh I can speak anecdotally, I I went pretty aggressive last year and I had a great year. But uh my best year has been this year when I've traded less, when I've looked at the charts less u because compounding, uh investments, business, everything comes together. And I think there is power in not staring at the markets every day uh and and just knowing when to pick your battles and also knowing seasons. So, it's not like this year is just I'm only a 10% trader anymore. It's certain periods in the markets when I know it's certain condition, trending condition. I know this is time to be hot. So, then I will be there every day and I'll be more active and I'll be looking for opportunities every day like I was last year. Other times when we're in New York, we're traveling, I'm on I'm on a vacation or I don't see the market as hot, it's just one or two trades a month and it's A+ only. And this is what I wanted to mention earlier that I'll come back to now. In the public signals, I showcase that journey. So I showcased when it was time to be hot in the market. I also showcased a single day with the my effects book and everything where I got uh three winning trades in 24 hours. Two of them one to 10. So I walked away with 18% in a single day I believe or something like that and that's a complete high. This is also an anomaly and I showcased that. And then I also had a low period which is on the public signals with hundreds of thousands of people watching these tweets. I took one loss, then another, then another. Then the comments get bad and then people are subscribing today and you're like, you're on your fourth loss and your fifth loss and this the people are commenting, I just found this guy and all he does is lose. Then I have my sixth loss. I'm like, this is getting brutal. I'm doubting myself. I'm reading the hate comments. People are like, man, I trusted this guy and now, oh, I blew my account, whatever. And they don't realize I'm I'm 40% up for the year, but they just didn't find me at that point. And then I have a seventh loss. I'm like, this is getting brutal. Um but I remained unfazed and we could talk about why I remained unmodifying my strategy, unmodifying my risk. Uh and I and I got out of it in the end. But I did encounter also another anomaly period which is yes 18% in 24 hours but also seven losses in a row. And that public signal document, you know, full journey documents the ordinary journey of a trader where you have absolute highs, you have absolute lows, you have winning periods, losing periods, uh slow periods, a lot of break even. There was a period where I had a bunch of break evens. So no loss, but it's just annoying. You're just turning up and getting nothing done. But this is the reality of the markets. And then now I'm showcasing hopefully people can see a life of someone who has built himself from the markets who is now an entrepreneur, business owner, traveler, broadcaster, investor, all these things that I'm doing now. Uh and how I still navigate the markets. But it would be weird. I would say if I was trading the same in year one and two with a net worth of 100,000 versus now with seven figures in the bank to be trading the same way it would be weird. So I think you evolve as a person, you evolve as a trader and your approach to the market evolves and your strategy evolves as you educate yourself. Um so it's interesting uh just for myself to reflect upon and hopefully be able to uh you know derive something from an inference of how a trader's journey should look like as you navigate towards the decade.

I want to put a pin on your seven loss streak. I want to get back to it. But something you've mentioned of like now you've made um 100 grand in two two days why not just trade like that every single day. And this was a point mentioned in a book called deep work uh by a guy called Kal Newport. He's a got a PhD in like something to do with like um how humans behave under under stress, how to be mostly productive etc etc and he's got a very very nice library of books and and uh content around that and his whole philosophy is you work only four hours per day and you work with maximum intensity zero distractions etc. And then like he addressed the comment of like okay if you if you can do this entire workday in 4 hours why not just work with the same intensity all day and he's like this defeats the whole point it's diminishing returns it's diminishing returns right and it's okay what are you optimizing for are you optimizing for output per hour in isolation in a vacuum or are you optimizing for output in a month in a year in a decade so similarly if if you take the same approach you took right and you place the same limits and you do the same execution with the same carelessness and same ease you're not going to get the same results again and And what turns from a 100k a month can be now a 20k month, a 40k month, a 120k month, whatever. And the market is less is more, more is more. And it's also the effort put in for the same result. So let's say you walk away with 200k, but you put 10xed effort to get the same 200k. So then the first two trades are not equal to the whatever other else you made. So there's a lot of things to consider and in theory there's things are very easy to to just talk about, but in reality it's it's a a very very sensitive thing.

There's a couple other things to also uh derive from this experience is number one we mentioned how uh abundant mindset versus a new trader mindset is different. Uh I also want to talk about effort and uh my my first four or five years of uh just my own journey when I was a university student when I started uh I was I was a very intense person. I was I was doing so much sacrifice. Uh, not only am I going through a dental degree and clinics and exams and group projects and case studies and presentations and all of the stresses of university, plus living in a new country, I don't speak Spanish at that time. So, learning a language, like there's a lot going on. Plus, I'm trying to figure out how to trade whilst I to have patience to treat. That's a very intense environment. I sacrificed friendships. I sacrificed socializing. And I worked obsessively. I don't do any of that anymore. And you might think, well, that's a regression in your life. You're not as hardworking anymore. Um, and I've just understood things better now. And I'm not saying I would do do things differently. I think that's what is needed in your first years, but it's not needed for me anymore because it's Naval Ravikans. Shout out to his philosophy. They've educated me a lot. Um, I now have a very unstructured life where previously I would have a I wake up every day at 7:00 a.m. because I got clinics and lectures. Now I sleep when I want. I wake up when I want. I don't have structured meetings. I I if I feel like having a meeting, I line it up. If I don't, I don't. If I want to talk to someone about something, I'll send a voice note if I feel like it and I'll get back to them when I feel inspired again. So, there's a very I'm speaking from a place of luxury, but it's changed and this is also a personality shift and it goes further because it ties into the markets which is why I'm mentioning it. Um he me naval mentioned you have meetings to then discuss, collaborate, brainstorm and have serendipity. And and then the interviewer Chris Williams asked him well if you're no longer having meetings are you not reducing your window of serendipity of curiosity because you're not having these structured moments. He said quite the opposite. I said I my entire life can now be serendipity because if I feel like reading a book I'll read it. If I feel curious to go on a walk I'll do it. If I feel like I want to call my my my dad and talk about something I will. So it's like when I have no structure no more coffees, no more let's hang out. It's just whatever you feel like and I I I embrace this now. So, I'll listen to a podcast. In fact, the other day uh you you saw me, I'm listening to a podcast and um usually I'm listening to a very value dense podcast and uh you're like, "Are you finding any value in it?" So, I was like, "No, um I'm just getting entertained." And it's like sometimes I'm I'm all in for value, all in for enjoyment. Like it's it's a very fluid life I have now. And I I apply this also to the market. So my my approach was previously intense allin structured towards the markets cuz I'm also back testing intensely. I'm also studying intensely. I no longer back test. I no longer research other schools of thoughts. I refine my craft. And this is curiosity. It's like I'm observing this pattern of data. A recent one that we spoke about is how many times do I hit 1 to 10 my TP2 versus the rate I hit my 1 to3s. Well uh I'm hitting 1 to three a lot of the time. I'm hitting 1 to 10 sometime, but I started to realize there's an inefficiency uh because it's not going to 1 to 10 often enough. So now I've been thinking, oh, this is a nice observation. Let's explore it. And the exploration has been maybe on my A+ setups, they have a disproportional 1 to 10 ratio. So I'll keep that ratio there. But on my counter trend trades, on my nonPOI trades, on my uh domino effect of minor inducement setups, it'll go over people's head, but I have a setup like that. These three I realized they don't go to 1 to 10 that often. So I have full volume at 1 to three. But this came from just curiosity and observation. It didn't come from intense back testing and so forth. Um and now also within my life in general, I'm not working as I used to because when I have a team, it's a nice uh someone mentioned about Elon Musk. He's like he could not work for a day and he still gets hundreds of thousands of hours of work done per week without him doing anything because there's a team there. So when you really embrace leverage, which is linear life we spoke about versus exponential life, the ability to have your entire first year of profits made in a week, it's only through leverage beans. And this year has symbolized all forms of leverage for me uh exploding. the the groundwork was built years in the making, months in the making, whatever it is. But they exploded in the last two months where the reason I had my biggest month in the markets, but also biggest month financially uh was because I understood compounding growth and leverage and I deployed all of them and this month it all came together where I walked away with just under 100,000 from the markets but also multi6 figures in six weeks um without working. This is crazy. I worked a bit uh but I would say I worked the least in my life and made the most in my life without having to have stress because in my early days where I'm grinding, hustling, anxious, learning, late nights, whatever, I'm in a stressed state. I'm also not used to the market. So a loss feels like a weight on my shoulder. Now when I've taken thousands of losses in my life, um I'm used to it. So I'm really unfazed. It's exposure therapy. It's emotion therapy. All of these have now yielded benefits for me where I from the outside it would be a stressed life. From the inside my new whoop band that you got me shows me I'm a low stress individual because I've just acclimatized and adjusted.

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Something you've said here about the fruits of your building now all just coming to fruition in one year. I've seen this post from Hamoi is like overnight success and it's a graph of just small small boom and it's like this is overnight success. It's very interesting to reflect on something you've said also about um the whole let's say journey of what you described of like your best year sorry best month with the with the least amount of amount of effort you've described how you are much more relaxed now when it comes to the markets compared to prior you be very intense with the with the education you're learning a lot of things you're trying a lot of things something I want to visualize I want to discuss with you if you visualize visualize on a graph your piano and your speed of learning or your amount of learning across your decade long of experience yes inverse probably right? So how would that look like and like why would that be the case because I would you would imagine like someone with with time just learns more learns more about any profession right? So there's probably a two categories we need to decipher number one is rate of learning or quantity of learning versus small insights that hold a lot of weight. I'm referencing the quantity of learning yeah. So the the quantity is like obviously in the beginning you're learning everything and a A lot of things you're learning are useless, but you don't know they are useless. So, you learn it and then come to realize it doesn't fit. So, that first two years, you're a sponge and you're intensely learning everything you get your hands on. I was deep in Telegrams, finding leaked courses and doing all of that stuff. Uh complete sponge. Now, uh I'm not learning as much. However, the few adjustments I make yield me massive returns. So, it's also a display of quantity versus quality. Here is important. In the earlier days, you will be all about quantity because you don't know what is quality. Later on I'm not I'm not going to watch other people's courses. I'm not going to learn a new school of thought that people are talking about because why would I learn something from zero when I don't have a competitive edge rather I'll take my edge that I have it's proven stood the test of time I like it I enjoy it and just build on top of it rather from zero so now it's refinement and improvements and small things that come randomly they're not systematic like I can't predict I'll have these four changes in the next quarter sometimes I have no improvements sometimes I'll have a couple of improvements in a month but these small tweaks go a long way. Uh, and I've documented in the last two years of this show, the changes I've been doing from the profit taking systems to now this adjustments that I mentioned, this is normal slow progress because your progress is also going to be diminishing. There's there's only so much upside there is left to squeeze out. Um, but those uh, you know, those final pieces of the puzzle, the first moments are the 80 and then the last years are the 20 in the 8020. I think it's a very good sign for you to have as an individual also just to make sure you're exercising leverage in whatever you do. If you have that graph of like your rate of learning and quantity of learning and amount of effort over time and it's just either plateauing or it's going going down and your return on set effort is just exponentially growing, you know you're in the right vehicle. But if it's other way around, then you've picked the wrong vehicle and it's just it's a good limit test for yourself. It's also another consideration that the industry you're in. So, for example, if right now we were in the AI space, there might be people in the AI space who started 10 years ago or whenever AI first started and they might be plateauing and they're just keeping up with the times. But then someone that is like, you know, new to it, whatever, they're going to be swept away because the the industry is booming. Whereas if you are someone in the I don't know email copywriting space like uh it's it's a useful it's useful for businesses but charg and claude they can make a lot of uh novice copywriters redundant. So you're in a industry where uh it's very easy to plateau. So in the markets you might think well as you get more mature you will plateau. I think that's a natural curve for anyone but you still fight for progress and the way you will really have jumps in the plateau is going to be through capital. If I can now access another million dollars and put that into my account, I can now have the same trades but get more out of it, same inputs, greater outputs because capital was put in the middle. Um, but I think plateauing in the markets is not a problem if you know how to use your profits to then have other curves that intersect with it. What I mean by this is um if I was if my goal in life was just to keep growing my account and just grow it and grow it and 5 years later growing it 10 years later growing it and just pulling out profit of what I want to spend on. This is the trader's dream and the trader's norm as a vision. I think it's flawed. I think what you need to do is uh not try to go from like 100k to a million to then 10 million. How about you just get to a million and you realize a million is powerful. Um and then anything surplus to that, withdraw it and put it into the stock market. put it into the property market, put it into business, put it into private equity. These these are things that a lot of people are not familiar with. I was also not familiar with it, but I'm learning a lot right now with chat GBT. And just the other day I mentioned to you I learned how to do a full tax efficient corporate structure, IP protected, legally protected, how I should have my assets structured or with tax or with IGBT and that kind of consulting from a tax advisor or a family office would have been thousands. But I I educated myself and now I can look to take action. Uh I think uh as a financially mature person you have to build wealth and understand there's a difference in wealth and rich. Rich is someone that has a high cash flow and they take the active income and they spend it on liabilities which is every trader we see online. A wealthy person's approach is I have a high income and I take that high active income and I put it into investments. Those investments generate me passive income. Those passive incomes I can now throw into liabilities. So, it's that extra step in the middle, which is why I didn't do the fancy car when I made my first million. I in fact, if I look around in my life, the liabilities that I've spent on have been this year in prior to this year, I didn't have liabilities aside from vacations and rent uh and and my rent was not crazy in terms of beyond my means. Uh but now that I've set myself up in a good way, investments are there. Now that the money is coming back to me effortlessly, I'm not working for it. And the last two months have been a showcase of that with the stock market. The ability for me to make six multi6 figures by doing absolutely nothing and then put that into a liability like there's no harm because it's just going to keep coming. This is wealth and I wish I started younger and I wish I knew about this younger cuz I would be in a much stronger position. But educating myself and for everyone to know it's it's really important.

I want to put a pin in that. I want to touch on it again uh towards the end. But I want to uh refer back to one more point regarding uh progress as a as a trader with PNL in mind. If if we now plot a different graph, right, to plot your journey as well with P&L over time and something else now, you've had quite the journey in your in your in your trading. You've started off, you've done a bit of harmonics, a little bit of Elliot wave, bit of SMC period, god forbid, uh, a bit of swing trading and now just a liquidity more even anti-SMC trader. And one more to add in there. I started off with Ichimoku cloud. I don't know if you That was a mad one. Like I'd love to see your chance, right, when you're trading there. You'll be blown away. So let's say you've got like you juggling all these schools of thought, right? I want to plot now your conviction in your strategy against your P&L. So let's say I've got this new edge and this is the [ __ ] this is going to be making me making me a millionaire, right? How is that reflecting in your P&L? And as your P&L grew, how was how did that belief change?

Yeah, conviction grows pretty nicely as a mirror image to P&L is just conviction uh is probably lagging. I would say like the P&L comes and then the conviction comes a little bit after that. Uh so certain times you will be making profit in the markets and you'll have the gut feeling that this is probably shortterm and just on a lucky period and that's where the space is or the delta for imposter syndrome I guess and I think that's very normal for a trader because we are not taught these things usually. I was not taught my current strategy. I learned foundations and then refined myself based on my personality, based on what I want to optimize for and have this unique approach in the market. And I think everyone has their unique approach based on their own cocktail of information. But uh when you have your unique approach and it's working in back testing and it's starting to work in the real markets, you still feel like I don't know if I trust it. I don't know if this is going to work. And when you see, oh, it's still working. Oh, it's getting easier. Oh, my losses don't hurt me as much anymore emotionally. M uh I'm putting less effort into it and it's still working. In fact, it's getting easier and I'm making more and my life is also flourishing because I'm taking that profit to invest. So, this is another benefit. Um when I've when I've seen my stock portfolio make x hundreds of thousands, I don't feel any craving to trade. So, for me to now execute upon only A+ setups in theory is excellent. But I've also told myself that last year I'm only going to do A plus setups. But then when you see a decent setup and you and you've sat there for two weeks and you've not taken a trade to maintain sitting on your hands and take no action yet you show up every day and yet you look at the charts for hours every day to still not take action is very difficult to exercise the restraint or willpower to not take a a setup when you told yourself only A+ setups but the A setup has a positive win rate. It has a worthwhile uh consideration and not take it is very difficult. But when your businesses bring you X and the stock market brings you Y and you're you're seeing your real bank account jump, then there's no there's no craving in the market and you're able to exercise your protocol in the market. Which is why people always say uh if you've got money problems, go get a job because it'll make you a better trader. I'll say that again. If you got money problems, go get a job because it will help your trading. Whereas people try to solve their lack of money through the markets which only amplifies emotions and leads to a detrimental outcome.

Touching back on that point of conviction and and switching trades and having that as a lagging indicator behind your P&L. So your P&L improves like you've mentioned it gets easier, better reward and you're still your conviction is now catching up. I think it's pretty insightful because we had a poll on the YouTube channel a couple days ago of like what's holding you back the most as a trader? Um is it uh your risk management? Is it your trade management? Is it something else? And it was hesitation was a part of it and it was by far the majority of of what people were hesitation hesitation just like not even being fully confident like if h I don't know if I should execute on this I don't know if I whatever what were the other options on the poll it was u it was risk management it was trade management and it was psychology and hesitation and hesitation beat psychology hesitation beat I would have guessed psychology I would have guessed too I'd just put it there as like maybe people hesitating psychology is usually people's main scapegoat but uh I think this is pretty insightful because they are taking hesitation as a form of psychology which it is I don't trust myself I don't trust my data whatever it is it's a psychological component hesitation um but it speaks to the idea that uh why would someone feel hesitant if it meets the strategy and they hesitate to take the trade with risk management in place with systems in place why would someone hesitate um it is I guess you just don't have enough data for you to know to to back that strategy because things are good on paper but then once it's exactly like you've mentioned like once you've seen it work out for yourself once now less effort more reward oh [ __ ] this might be working now and then my conviction and less therefore hesitation goes down and that lag in the initial years is very long uh the lag now I don't know if I even have a lag but in the beginning it's it's a one year two year lag so it's a lot of space to just doubt yourself and probably give up uh also within the the hesitation it's not hesitation in the data so it's not like okay back test more execution People people are back testing and journaling and people always say I'm I'm trust me bro I'm back testing 12 hours a day. Okay I'll assume you're you're telling me the truth but they'll still hesitate because there is a gap between uh back testing and emotionless trading and then forward testing which is trading the actual market. The gap there is real emotions and that's when your hesitation is amplified. So I think to overcome it if I'm to think about it it's going to be simply uh executing over time. There is not a shortcut. I think it's just years in the game. Uh, and there's, you know, taking a month of intensive where you're like, I'm going to take 100 trades this month. I don't think you'll arrive to a more confident place faster. I think it's it's just years under your belt. I think it's like you mentioned, you don't have to wait for the confidence or for the perfect setup or for the perfect day. You just execute. It's normal to feel hesitation because it's a lagging indicator. And that's kind of the key takeaway going.

Now, going back to something very interesting which you've touched on a bit earlier on your public signals, right? So you show up to the market and that happened for how long would that was that period like is it several weeks? Was it the seven losses? Yeah. So it was in an ordinary cadence. I was probably doing one to three trades a week on my public signals. Was that like across like three weeks total for for example? That's when I started to approach loss four or five uh let's call it what's the word uh not stage fright um performance anxiety let's say where I was like I was even more hesitant to give out trades. So in in private I was still taking a couple of trades and they they were profitable and I was like this is a bummer. I'm not even going to post it because it just looks like I faked it. It's like oh you you know when you don't post the trade you you win. So I was like forget it. I just won't even talk about it. But this is showcase as well like stick through your edge because we'll get on to it. The probability of seven losses in a row becoming eight becoming nine becoming 10 is getting less and less likely. Like it's not normal to have 20 losses in a row but it might be normal to have three in a row. So there's data there, but because I had this like, man, some of these signals tweets, they're getting 200,000 views and a lot of people are losing with me and my reputation, my neck is on the line each signal despite the one-ear performance, I'm

Judged on a train-by-trade basis. So the spotlight's on me and six or five losses in, I'm feeling it. Uh, and then that leads to a bit of, um, performance anxiety and not showcasing, you know, all of that, right? Uh, so then I probably didn't post a trade for two weeks. I was like, I'm just going to wait. And eventually, I post it and it's another loss. I'm like, "Ah, for God's sake." And then I was six losses in and then I think I waited another week or two, even though I saw good opportunities, and I just didn't take them or I didn't, I didn't, uh, show them on a public signal. Uh, and then that seventh loss as well came, and then eventually the eighth lo, eighth trade became a win, and then slowly built back my confidence.

Also, just the power of road, by the way. Those seven losses in a row, uh, probably took me three or four trades to get out of the hole. So it feels like a hole. You're seven losses in, you're maybe 7% down to where you were at the beginning, but with a positive risk-reward profile, it's not a, it's not a long hole unless you prolong it yourself, which is unfortunately what I did, but I learned from it.

Yeah, that's kind of, uh, leading to my question of like, so you show up to the markets, you take a trade, and you publicly signal it, and it's a loss. And then once more, and then once more, and now you've done that six times. You show up again, and this time is going to be different. I'm going to put it again, I'm going to be extra careful, and it's another loss. What was going through your head? And did you, like, doubt something maybe when it comes to the edge, when it comes to whatever?

No, I didn't doubt my edge. That's not a feeling that comes to me. It was a feeling of, it was just a feeling of, "What the [ __ ]?" It was more just that I, I didn't feel like something's wrong. I didn't feel like, I didn't feel I wanted to blame my psychology either, 'cause I didn't feel like I was taking reckless trades. Every trade made sense to me. But it helped the public signals helped me because I had an extra layer of qualifying because there is no concept of like, "Let me YOLO a trade. Let me just jump into it." Because I'm never going to, if five people are watching me, I might throw a YOLO trade. When 50,000 people are watching me, I will check four times and hesitate and double-check and think about it. So if anything, it makes me more conservative, which helps. Um, so my psychology was fine. Uh, I took a cool-off period, took two weeks off to say, "Okay, let me just come refresh so I don't feel the burden of this." I also turned my notifications on Twitter off, just to not expose myself to unnecessary comments that will make my performance worse. So I think everything was fine, to be honest.

Uh, would you not say there's a specific thing that you was like, "Ah, uh-huh, this was the main reason behind it?" Or was it more related to?

No, I think it was just, I mean, now looking back, I know the answer if you want me to touch on it.

Yeah, that's kind of leading to the next point of like, seven losses in a row. There's the, I think also one of the debates that we've had on the show of like, now how do you crawl back out of a losing streak and you size down and you? So let's touch it. I'll pull up the, the table just so I can reference it better. Yeah, I think we also display on screen for, for viewers. I find this to be honest, one of the most powerful and most, I think, ignored data points that, uh, traders don't even pay enough attention to when it comes to. Let's talk about it. So you'll have it on screen. So my win rate on the public signals was about 60%. But my win rate is not static. So the first, I want to clarify, win rate is not a, how good you are or ego metric. It's not a performance metric. It's a, what you choose it to be metric. Contrary to what I believed, the analogy I give is someone that goes to the gym. The stronger you are, the better your nutrition is, better your sleep is, better everything is, your bench press strength will slowly go up. So the better you are, the better your performance in the markets. The better trader or the better trading you do does not mean better win rates. You can have a great performance on a 40% win rate in certain scenarios. So when you realize, I, when I realized I choose my win rates, which last year I was more than aware of, because I started my public signals with A+ setups only. These carry about a 75% to 80% win rate, but they're few and far between. It's one trade every two weeks. Yeah, it's a low trade frequency, but I'm building a buffer right now. When I've got the buffer, I've got 10%, 20% profit, I can now enable even my worst setups. Now, there's a difference between a bad setup and a, my worst valid setup. Relatively bad setup. Yes, relatively bad setup. So, my worst setup that I'm willing to take carries about a 40% win rate. We're talking non-POI trades or medium inducements in no man's land, for example, an Asia range sweep only. I have criteria on my C++ setups. Uh, these carry a 40% win rate. But therefore, you can realize some of my trades are 80%, some of my trades are 40%. And my 60% win rate on my public signals was a cocktail of everything. Some of my trades are 50, some are 40, some are 80. But then it's weighted as well. If I took loads of my 40% win rate trades, that's out-skewing the data. And if I only took a handful of 80% win rate trades, then you know your win rate is going to move, right?

So how do you approach this? So when I realized, I've taken, um, these insights that I've spoken about just now, I was aware of last year. The insight I'm about to share, I only came to learn this two months ago. So it's crazy, you know, nine years into your journey, you still learn something new. But I learned this and it was really reassuring. I want to say almost revolutionary. And this is why I'm excited to share it. It's the probability of X successive losses, uh, within a 50-trade period. Oh, this is a different table. Hold on. 50 trades also works, to be honest. Yeah, both work. Uh, for more context for the viewers, I think this is a, a rather important data metric because it doesn't just, uh, say like how likely you are to lose, period. That's your win rate. It's also how, how you're likely to lose four times in a row, five times in a row. And then when you're on your fifth loss, you have something now to refer to like, yeah, my, my next trade being a loss is now X percent likelihood, which is what K's gonna explain now. So I actually mentioned, uh, two videos ago that we did on this channel, internal podcast, whatever you call it. I mentioned this idea of like, you should know your data to the point where you should know how often in a year you can take four losses in a row. I said something like that word for word, but I never put, I was aware of it vaguely. I knew, I knew my personal data, um, but I didn't do this table matrix. So let me share it with you. Probability of X consecutive losing trades within a 100-trade sample size. So based on a 60% win rate, which is what I have on my public signals, the probability of seven losses in a row was, uh, seven losses in a row, 60% was 14%. So actually, that's quite unlikely, but at some point, it can happen. Six losses in a row was 32%. That's pretty much going to happen. And five losses in a row has 80%. Now, that's like a certainty almost. Within 100 trades, you'll have an 80% chance of having five losses in a row with a 60% win rate. Now, let's move it to a 40% win rate, which is some of my setups. If I'm to sustain this, the probability of seven losses in a row is 99%. So my 60% win rate is not me. I don't identify with 60%. I was aggressively doing more and more lower-quality setups because I had a 40% buffer. So, initially, I was doing one trade a week, one trade every two weeks. At the height of this, when I arrived to the summer of 2024, when I was just before my seven losses in a row, I was taking one trade every two days on, on my public signals. So, my trade frequency is high. My chosen win rate has come down because I've introduced my 40% win rate setups. So when I'm referring the kind of setups I was taking, they are more in the category of 40%, 50% win rate. And I look at the table, I'm like, there is a 93% chance I will have a seven losing period, seven losses in a row. 93% chance. So when I look back at that time, yes, some of my trades were still A+ setups. Some of them were 40% setups, but the, basically, the data is showing me there's like an 80 to 90% chance I will have seven losses in a row at some point. So when that happens, number one, should I be surprised? Absolutely not. Number two, what should my behavior be thereafter? So my behavior was, cool off. And when I analyzed this table, I think that is a correct inference. Cool off. Because you are unable to act in a clear way. So you will take irrational trades. You will take non-model, non-trade model trades, and that's going to worsen your data or it's not factored into this data. So you cool off emotionally. When you have a level head, which takes a week, probably two weeks. Uh, for me, it was heightened because of the social media sphere, right? But when I've now cooled off, I approach the market again and I can decide, do I do ordinary trading? Do I do aggressive trading like I was? Or do I revert back to A+ setups? And what do I do with my risk? These are pressing questions. And when everybody encounters a seven-loss period, because when someone has a, you know, 90 to 80% chance of having seven losses in a row, everyone watching this, no matter if you have a 40% win rate or 80% win rate, majority of you guys have that win rate, you will have six losses in a row this year. It's just bound to happen. And write in the comments if you do. When someone is encountering this, the protocol, I think is best practices. You look left, you look right on the table, and you realize with my 50% trade models, the chance of having an eighth loss or a ninth loss, we're talking 30% chance, 16% chance. If I go to my A+ setups, this is where it gets powerful. With an 80% uh win rate to those trade models, the probability of having eight losses in a row is 1%. So now, if I've had seven losses in a row, which has a high degree of certainty, we're talking, what do we say, 30%? That is going to happen. When you have that seventh loss in a row, why not go to A+ setups, which probability says it's not an 80% chance that it's going to be favorable. You might be pushing 90 or 95 because the probability of X losses in a row and keep going in a row to nine loss in a row is very unlikely. Right. So your relative win rate or recent win rate might be improved just on on rolls of dice of chance. And then the question is, if I revert to my A+ setups, should I increase my risk now because now I can be more confident in the trade? Plus, this matrix is giving me more confidence in data. Should I risk more? Should I risk the same? Or should I risk less because I've gone on tilt? I'm feeling emotional. A lot of people reduce their risk in losing periods. Mhm. I've had the debates on the show with many, and I've said, I don't reduce my risk. And a lot of traders say, no, you need to cool off. You need to whatever. And they didn't have an answer. I took it at face value. Now, when, when someone's going to say this to me, I'm going to just pull this up and say, okay, if your probability of your next trade is abnormally high to be a win, despite a losing period. If now you take that win and now you're doing half risk, now it's going to take you double the time to get out of the hole. So let's say seven losses in a row, you're now 7% down. Let's say your average win is 1 to three. Now, for you to get back out of the hole, it's going to be two winning trades or three winning trades. Let's assume you have a 50% win rate. We're talking six trades. Couple of losses, couple of wins. We're talking, you know, yeah, six, seven wins. Uh, oh, no, sorry. It wouldn't even be six, seven trades because then the probability of these following trades being a win rate, being a win. It wouldn't even probably increase. Probably like three, four, and maybe you take one or two losses. So, you, you go back down a bit to 1%. So, we're talking three, four trades to get back out of the hole. If I know half my risk, to get back out of the hole, it's eight trades. Now you tell me, whose psychology is worse? The guy that rebounds in three to four trades and it's like it never happened, or the guy that reduces their risk? So per trade, they don't feel as bad. But now you're in drawdown on your P&L for a month. That is a lot heavier emotionally. So I would argue it's more detrimental to reduce your risk in trading in a losing period, which is crazy. But the math is math. In this is what this is what it's telling me. So now I, I can now reaffirm my choice in my trading, which is in a losing period, I don't reduce risk because why would you? If the chance of an eighth loss in a row is 1 or 2%, or a ninth loss in a row is 0% chance. You might as well keep your risk. Don't size up for the factor of emotion because the data is saying risk up because your next trade is most likely a win. You might as well get out of the hole in one or two trades. I would argue you got to balance your emotions with the data, and the middle ground is maintain your risk. Um, and, and it's, it's a huge insight, and I, and I'm very happy to share. It's not my insight, it's on Google, but very powerful, very powerful. I think there's, um, an even more interesting bit that I found particularly interesting myself of like, if you have a 50% win rate, and the simplest way you can envision this is a coin toss, you will have heads happen several times in a row, even though it's a 50% thing, and it wouldn't be always, and it wouldn't be one, one, it would alternate. And it's not just like a, "Oh, it may happen." You can check on that table. 50%. The chance of you having four losses in a row is 100%. Yeah. So at some point in a 100-trade sample size, so let's say in 100 trades, you will certainly, absolutely [ __ ] going to have four losses in a row. That's just something that's to be expected. And you don't be like, "Oh, now I'm going to have a difficulty with my psychology. Oh, I'm going to have difficulty. I'm going to change my edge." Whatever. Having that as a frame of mind as you approach trading, I think it's very useful and very helpful for you to now have this experience and be like, "Yeah, this is going to end soon." And because I trust that the coin has not now like, different. And I think the context of changing risk is, uh, applicable in one context. You deviate from the plan, which were one gentleman we had on the pod in, um, New York, James Thorp. He was, he was telling the story of how he lost an abnormal amount of money in the same day, and then his instructor told him to have a very small risk, try to make 50, 50 pound back your confidence. But this was because he deviated from the policy of the trading floor, from the edge that you've got. So it's also interesting, just that example for a moment. Um, in that same situation, he faced a fight or flight moment. He had a catastrophe. He went into, lost so much money in a day, and he went into a flight. He paralyzed himself and wouldn't take a trade for a month. So his instructor told him, "Just take the smallest lot size you can, make $50 to build back your confidence." I, on the other hand, I wouldn't go into flight mode. I'd go into fight mode. I'd go into, "I'm going to fight the market and make it back today." So I think based on your personality, you know, which side you are and what you should do. Yeah. Yeah. The point here in terms of data as well is like, as long as you're on the plan that you've backtested and you know for a fact has X% win rate, for example, the coin toss, you should not be in any way considering sizing down or doing anything different because the coin has not changed. Now, if the coin has changed due to psychological information or psychological factors, where now you've added some 20% win rate trades into your, into your catalog. Now the data is not even in your favor anymore, and now sizing down actually makes sense because you've just skewed. And I think also sizing down makes sense as long as you now re-establish your position into the plan. So you're not sizing down in wrong trades as well, because that's not going to help you. So I think that's also a powerful take that I took. Yeah, that's probably a very tough conversation someone has to have with themselves of when they go on tilt. They think they're following the plan, but realistically, if you are not following the plan, you might end up taking trades that are 30% win rate, 20% win rate. And therefore, if you're going to deviate away from the plan, just don't lie to yourself and say, "Okay, when I go until, do I start taking crappy setups or not valid setups?" If you are doing that, probably then size down. But if you're someone that knows your trade models and you're deploying them and you're following the plan, it's just getting loss after loss. Realize it's normal. Seven losses in a row can actually be very normal with a healthy win rate. But that eighth one and that ninth loss is pretty unlikely. Maintain your risk because you're not going to spend one month in the hole that you would if you followed the plan and, and reduce risk. So follow the plan, maintain risk because the probability gets in your favor. Uh, and then if you just skew it towards, uh, a rigged game, which is, you now pick your 80% win rate, your A+ setups, there is an almost a certainty your eighth and ninth trader will be wins. So therefore, if you maintain risk, you can get out of the hole in two trades, which is then a losing period doesn't turn into a tilt, it turns into a quick rebound. And that's powerful to know as a trader. It's very simple. You have to find an edge and then you have to have a mind so you can follow that edge. But how do you know if you're performing correctly or not? You have to know your data. And Tradeseller is going to show you everything that you need beyond the surface level win rates and performance and equity curve. It's going to show you detailed reports. It's going to be your backtesting tool, strategy testing tool, playbooks, notes, and it's going to be a full journal. It makes your journaling easier, faster, and more meaningful. Whereas, if you were just documenting on an Excel spreadsheet or taking screenshots on your iPhone, you wouldn't be able to pull out the data that you need. The correlations that the AI within Tradzella is pulling out for you. There's so much variety and utility within the software that I think it's essential for any trader. So the link somewhere below is going to take you directly to the Tradzella website. I'm not getting paid. This is for you. If you want it, if you like it, go ahead and explore it, and probably you'll be using it for years to come.

Now, on the topic of data, there's something also interesting where we've recently been using these Whoop bands to track our health and and get more, uh, data points on how the body is reacting to certain things. And you've said something pretty interesting to, to me of like, um, your parents got the same thing, but they look at it as like, just my sleep score. It's pretty, previous useless, but when I showed you my dashboard and how I've been using it, you'll be like, this is very similar to trading in terms of like the amount of data and the types of data you gather are going to help you actually understand what's going on. Yeah. And therefore, it's the correlations and the thing you focus on when it comes to data that become useful and help me draw correlations of like, when I have these days or do these habits that affect my body in this way. Someone else using the same tool, getting the same data, wouldn't be able to do that. Now reflecting that on trading, what do you think is the most worthwhile data points for you to focus on if you want to have actual practical insights in your trading?

That's a nice question. Uh, so first of all, not to make it sound like an ad for Tradzella, but your Whoop band collects so much data, and my parents' utility of it is like, they wake up, they refresh it, they look at their sleep score, and that's it. And they're like, "Okay, today was an 80, today was a 40, whatever it is." But it didn't change behavior. It didn't give any insight, and it didn't use the potential of the data that was taken. Right? A lot of people can go to a Tradzella or a journaling platform, see, "Okay, this is my win rate." My FTMO account also tells me my win rate. So what is the benefit of this? And then they cancel it. And then what they don't realize is within Tradzella, not even talking about all the other features of backtesting and, and all these things, is just the, if you input the data, which there's some manual work, but so is with the Whoop band, you got to, you got to give it feed information and then also read the reports it gives you. So if I'm not entering on my Tradzella, if I'm just syncing into my broker, it's uploaded my trades, but I haven't given it hashtags of like, "This is my A+ setup. This is my B setup." How are you going to get inferences on your setups if you haven't inputted your setups? If you don't even have setups or playbooks? So, you got to input the data in to get the most out of the tool. And then once you have done that, um, to be honest, there's, I'm, I'm looking at the key things, which is win rates, average risk-to-reward, uh, the break-even rate, how many trades reach take profit one, how many trades reached take profit two. So now, now it's no longer a static win rate. It's a win rate in reference to TP1, TP2, break-even, and loss. So let's just call it a dynamic win rate. An insight that I had two years ago with Trazella was I didn't realize that break-even, I've said has no cost, which is true. Break-even has no cost. Um, but I was trading a large size, and I realized one month my break-evens had cost me $16,000. So I was like, "What the [ __ ]?" I, I didn't even consider this. It's like, how, because you just see your P&L at the end of the month, or you just scroll on your MetaTrader and you put in the dates you want, you just see a number. It's like, I'm up or I'm down. But I didn't consider this hidden tax in break-even or in the markets, which is the cost of, uh, spread and the cost of, uh, commissions. A lot of your dollars per lot size placed. So because of the trade sizes I was doing, um, I have with my broker $7 per lot in commission and fees just to place a trade. If I'm placing 100 lots, I'm paying $700 in fees. I wasn't considering this foolishly. And, um, I didn't consider I have a raw spread account, but at times it might be half a pip, one pip. So if I'm, uh, you know, if I'm doing X amount of dollars per pip, it's an expensive pip that I'm not considering plus the $700 in commissions. So this tallied up, even though I was having, let's say, 10 break-even trades, I was doing a flat break-even. So I wasn't breaking even considering I need to be a little bit in profit for the spread and for the commissions. So now I just add two pips or one and a half pips. So my break-even is actually ever so slightly in profit to factor in this hidden tax. I would not even known this, and I hadn't known this for seven years of profitably trading. So what was it, eight years of trading, nine years of trading in general, and so eight years of trading in general, and I hadn't even considered the cost of break-even is something, um, unless you move your break-even in a specific way. Interesting. This is an insight. A lot of the insights you will get are inferences you would have never imagined with the inputs. Just like you mentioned, one of the insights you have is, "When I have an afternoon snack, I have better sleep." You just would have never thought to think about that. It's also random insight which you uncovered. So you'll uncover a lot of random things. There was a period of like six months in 2023 where buying on Thursday was heavily unprofitable for me. So my, if I just remove that day, my P&L would jump, my win rate would jump, everything would jump. But now I got to ask myself, because people see that, people say, "I don't trade Mondays." I'm like, "Why?" "Mondays are not profitable for me." "I don't trade gold." "Why?" "Oh, gold is not profitable for me." No, gold is, can be profitable. Mondays can be profitable. But if I'm in a bearish market and I'm buying on Thursdays, then of course it's going to be not favorable. It's a bearish market. I'm counter-trend trading. So I just realized there is a window of time where, uh, counter-trend trading or, uh, buying on Thursdays was not profitable for me. So I removed it. But I also figured out I shouldn't remove this forever. So then I, um, continued to backtest or let's say paper trade these Thursday trades. And then when I started to realize, "Okay, I'm now in a bullish market," uh, or I'm now in a certain market condition. Buying on Thursdays is now appropriate. I reintroduced it. So some of these data points are just insights that you will not uncover and you modify as you go along. You don't go looking for them. They, you, you find the insights and then you, you make decisions upon it. But the main things to track of like a decay of an edge, your own performance, uh, is just journaling the key metrics, rate of return, win rate, trade frequency, uh, the dynamic win rate set of TP1, TP2, break-even rate. Once you have accounts of all of these things, you know your norms. And then I tend to look back on a, let's say, 10-trade sample size. So I'm not going to look back at the last 100 trades and and say all of this information, what do I do? I'm also looking at another data set, which is my recent relative performance on the last 10 trades or so, and I'm comparing it upon my long-term performance. How is my short-term performance? Because the insight here is I might have had a hot period, and now every metric is up. My PL is up. My win rate is up. And I realize, "Oh, my recent performance is here, but my general performance is here." I know I'm not going to outperform my edge. So, it'll regress back to this mean. So, then I can also put safeguards in place and say, "This hot period is not going to last forever. This is a recent high, and it will, it will regress back to my normal trajectory." Same for a low period. If I'm having an abnormally low period, I'm not going to panic because I know it'll come back to my normal trajectory. So, it's like having a North Star. You deviate away a bit. You look up at the North Star. Oh, I need to go back here. Uh, and this is a nice adjustment to have as well, which is why I track them both to complement what you're saying as well. Um, let's say three more data points that, um, I've heard you share, which I found very interesting. Your break, break-even rate should be more than your win rate. Uh, if I'm not in my way of no, yeah, actually, yeah, better wording is probably just saying a high rate of break-even trades for me in my style of trading is a positive sign. Correct. And that's kind of one thing you would only know if you would track your data. And that's kind of like a data point that you've. The reason I made that a data point for myself is a lot of traders don't break even. And, uh, there's no cost to break even. But the ability to break even quick, and I, and on an A+ setup, some trades I'm breaking even within three minutes. I do a very aggressive break-even on the M1 shift. But this is only because I don't, I don't trade a 30-pip stop loss and a POI. I trade inducement, lower time frame confirmation, time window. So the inducement gives me volatility. Time window gives me volatility. Confirmation gives me, it's ready. So I can time the market with volatility. So if I don't get an immediate reaction, this is a negative sign for my edge. But someone that is a swing trader, uh, they are not timing the market in the same way. They might get in on a Monday, and then the market starts to move on Thursday. So the break-even is not appropriate for them. But this, what this unlocks for me is if I can break even very quick, and I aggressively do it without shame, uh, it allows me to get trades that I was wrong in, 'cause now I can, I can take a trade and it's happened. It's happened. I've said it many times in the public signals. It happened. I took three trades in the week. All three of those trades went into a bit of profit and then melted on me. And I got the direction bias wrong. I got the market read wrong. But I was able to either catch my one to threes or those losses just ended up being three break-even trades. So if you are able to be wrong in the markets and take no loss, or maybe even walk away with a slight profit, this is a hack. This is a superpower in the market. And if you break even in the way now we have learned, which is consider your commissions, consider your spread, you have no cost to make profits, right? This is a huge reduction in exposure in the market, which is why I, I do it aggressively. Right. Perhaps maybe the significance of that specific, uh, key point would vary depending on strategy. But I think considering break-even rate as a metric in the first place, I found very interesting. So that's point number one. Point number two, I remember you also mentioned the data point of how often is it that you get stop loss, stop hunted, sorry, by half a pip and then price goes in your direction anyway, compared to just getting destroyed like you've mentioned, just by, and then melts against you. And I think like you've mentioned, a good edge should have the latter more often, of like you're just reading the market wrong, and that's just a normal loss, compared to getting stop hunted.

Yeah, I did make a tweet about this last year. Yeah. Right. And I remember that I was basically saying like, would you rather I just put a question out there. Would you rather hit stop loss and be totally wrong? Would you rather hit stop loss for two pips and then it goes towards your profit level? And a lot of people were saying, um, "Oh, I'd rather be right. I'd rather hit stop loss and then it goes to my profit. I knew it. I knew it." Yeah, at least I got the market read right. And that for me doesn't make sense because when you get it wrong, you should get it wrong. And it's happened to me twice in the last year. I made a YouTube video about it where I hit stop loss on a public signal, I think, uh, and it was a public signal and hit stop loss for 0.5 pips. And I, I factored in spread into my stop loss. So, there was a slight buffer there. If I hit stop loss for a couple of pips, the comment sections were full of, "Why not just give yourself a bit more breathing room? You don't need a four pip stop loss." Uh, I'm, I'm completely against that. Why would I now increase my stop loss by one or two pips, which doesn't sound like much, but when you're an intercession trader, if I average a four, four pip stop loss, two pips, two pips extra is a 50% increase in my stop loss size, and therefore a 50% reduction in my, um, ability to hit TP1 because TP1 has now moved further. So now, why would I reduce my ability to hit TP1 or the rate I hit TP1? Why would I reduce the ability to make profit in the market to avoid a circumstance that happened twice in the last year? So you don't take decisions based on every insight. You'd look at, look at it to say, "I got, I hit stop loss by a pip. That's very frustrating. How often do I hit stop loss by a pip?" "Oh, only twice in the last year." So let me preserve my win rates. Let me preserve the ability for me to hit a 1 to 3 risk-to-reward within 12 pips instead of me having to hit a 1 to 3 risk-to-reward in 19 pips or 18 pips or whatever the math is by increasing my stop loss by two pips. There is not a, there's not a mathematical edge here. So I allow this and I consider a cost of my trading, which is once or twice a year I'll get wicked out, it'll hit my TP, but more often than not, when I hit stop loss, it's because I got it wrong, and I'm okay with that. And I guess it also just cancels out when you look at the whole sample size of like, yeah, I didn't get stop loss, I did get get stop hunted here, but across like, you've mentioned, 100 trades, I'm going to make less money overall. It might be, I think this is a nice reflection on year one to three of trading. I would have been very reactive to that insight. I took a loss. It whips me out for two pips. Let me just give myself a two pip buffer next time. Uh, and not knowing that the next trades I could have hit profit on them, but I didn't because my risk-reward profile has now changed, and therefore the loss that I took that was going to be recovered in the next trades, it no longer recovered for me. So you messed up everything just by not knowing how to react to your data. It's also important to, to, to know, um, that this doesn't apply for all edges. Sometimes you maybe need a breathing room. For example, if your stop loss was one pip, then maybe you do need to make it three to four, five pips, whatever exactly. So, I, I don't take two pip stop losses because even though sometimes on M1, the trade, the market is telling me I should have a two pip stop loss, just for the sake of spread logistics, whatever, my lowest is three pips. So if I on M1 get a one pip stop loss, which sometimes happens, I will not take an M1 trade. I'll take an M3 trade and I'll just give myself my minimum three pips and my maximum seven pips. So, so this is all just based on gathering the data, reflecting on it for long enough for you to understand trends, and then making decisions. And that's what I think is very important. Yeah. Sometimes, uh, data analysis is not like, what's the data today? What's the inference from it today? Sometimes it's, you're collecting data for months, and then an idea comes to you, and then you, you act upon it. Hence, what I mentioned at the beginning of this episode of how I'm now modulating my TP1 and two based on the trade type, right? Which is a recent insight. One more, let's say topic I'd like to discuss as we wrap up the episode. It's a topic of agency, and we previously, previously touched on it before. It's something I really enjoy of like, people with high agency, you can think of them as happening to life. They act their will on life. They move through life. And people with low agency, just life's happening to them. And you're sitting there and just, just waiting for things to happen. And, um, there's four signs of a person with low agency, and I'm looking to, let's say, dissect each point of the low, a low agency signs or or traps, and reflect that onto the markets. So for the sake of communication and making things easy to visualize, let's, let's envision yourself or let's say myself, I'm stuck in a South African prison on a deserted island. And now I'm going to contact someone with low agency, and he's going to exercise one of these four traits. So the first trait is the vagueness metric, or the vagueness trap of being a low agency person. So I'm stuck on this island. "Yo, um, Waka, how's it going? Any plans on come rescuing me, uh, yet?" He's like, "Yeah, man. I'm making progress." "Oh, beautiful. Um, so when are you coming?" "Um, no date yet, and no specific plan of action yet, but I'm making progress. Working on it, bro. I, I'll be there in no time." And you check in again in a year, and a second year, nothing changes. It's just too vague. And I think that's one of the traps, easy traps people can fall into that would lead them to be a low agency individual. So, how can that be reflected onto the markets, for example? How, what are something that people are just way too vague about? Of like, "I don't know, maybe I'll backtest." But what does backtesting mean? Or maybe I will work on my psychology. But what does that mean? For example, there's probably a more perfect answer, but just what's first jumped into my head is something I mentioned to my members recently. I'm going to put a heavy, uh, asterisk here and say, if this applies to you, okay? And, uh, this applies only to people that have a net worth of more than like 15 grand. If you don't have access to 15 grand or you're not able to make 15 grand in savings within a couple of months, this advice does not apply to you. But if you're someone that is at a decent level of financial stability, um, a lot of people get into the habit of, "I'm going to backtest for six months. I'm going to study for six months. I'm going to learn. I'm going to attend community calls. I'm going to ask questions and I'm going to learn, learn, and then I'll do my first prop challenge six months in." Six months. But you can afford to do 10 of them today. Now, it doesn't mean you, you do all 10 of them today. I'm saying your budget and your plan of action doesn't make sense because if you can afford to buy four challenges and it doesn't hurt you at all financially, buy one, blow it, and learn the lessons, and then buy the next one. You will probably blow it and learn the lessons. Your rate of progress is going to be so much faster when you're actually taking trades and losing money. And the blowing, I think people, if you have a baseline of information or baseline of knowledge, you will learn more in blowing accounts than asking someone that is a great trader questions because you won't know what to ask them. But if you blew an account and you took these four trades, you can go to them say, "Hey, I took these four losses. Teach me." And you will learn more. So you'll learn more, you'll know more about your emotions, you'll know more about your personality and temperaments and the adjustments of exposure theory, emotion therapy, you all, you benefit from all of them, and you don't harm yourself financially. And a lot of people just be stagnant and say, "I'll take a profit challenge when I'm ready." Not realizing the profit challenges and blowing them will make you ready. 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I think you've given a very interesting answer because it ties into two points of the vagueness trap and also a different one called the midwit trap of like, "Okay, any plans on coming to risk me, bro?" Uh, "Yeah, bro, I'm doing my third year of now studying how to break people out of jail. I'm getting my PhD and then once that's done, I'll take a course about it and then I'll come rescue you." Of like, just taking way too many steps when you can just get started and then that will teach you how to get started. So now that's two points covered. There's a third one of cynicism of like, "Hey, bro, any plans on coming to rescue me from this island?" "Yeah, man. I had a perfect plan. I posted on on Reddit and a guy called MonkeyTrader341 made fun of me and just clowned me in the comments. And I think it's a bad trade, bad idea now. I'm just not going to do it, man. It's just not for me. I'm just, I'm not meant to do it." And just hang it up and just, you're left there. And I think that's also applied in the markets of like, maybe I take a few losses here and there, and trading is not for me, or I'm just not cut out for this, for example.

Yeah, I think I think environments matters. And I had those voices at university when, you know, my peers, my friends, they were aware I was trading, I was making no money. I had, you know, I was only losing money. And then rumors would go around saying, "Oh, guy's trying to be a trader." If I had listened to those voices, then I might have given up. So, it's also, as you're saying, it's knowing who's worth listening to. And some guests on this show are more worth listening to than your parents because your parents don't know anything about trading. They have your best intentions at heart, but they don't have the full context. So, their good-willed advice may steer you in the wrong direction. And a guest on the show who has context may give some advice that can change your life. Yeah, I think it's qualifying the people you listen to first before listening to them. Um, let's say a lasting question to to wrap up with. I really like this this frame of thinking of like, what is something that you believed and thought of and looked to exercise in your first few years in the markets, and only recently has changed, fully flipped some?

Something the markets has taught you that's changed your, let's say, prerequisite. That is a level 10 question. Uh, on the fly, I don't think I'll be able to come up with an answer. I have to think on it. Um, something that I've believed up until recently. I mean, I've spoken about it today of, um, the recent insights of the losses in a ROS and so forth. So, I'll probably stick with that, cuz I won't be able to, um, I don't have something that comes to mind on that one.

Uh, one thing that I can say though, is for someone that's made it to the end of the show. Um, uh, so I made, uh, seven-figure investment into the stock markets. We mentioned it a few episodes ago, right? And now two months later, we're back at all-time highs. So, it was an amazing V-shaped recovery. Uh, so, some of my Tesla trades are like 20% up. Some of my initial Meta trades are 30% up. My, um, some of my best positions on the S&P or HAL that I took, they're like 12% up, but my average portfolio is up, I think, 11% or 10%, something like that. Aggregating multiple prices and how heavy I went in and etcetera, right?

Um, that money didn't come out of thin air. That big investment that I made. So, yes, I was sitting on a lot of cash. I tend to sit on a lot of cash, which is a mistake of mine. Mhm. Um, but also what I did was I realized, let's just call it, I had a million dollars in my trading account and I'm doing 1% risk or half a percent risk. So that means 990,000 goes unused. And because I'm not taking 20 trades at the same time, I also don't need that much free margin. So, majority of the money in my trading account is serving no purpose. It's dead money. So, if I have a million-dollar account or a half-million-dollar account, my working capital will be the same. So, why not put half a million dollars into the market and the other half a million dollars into investments, but only if I have access to that money and it's liquid and it's unlikely to collapse like a memecoin. So, for example, if I put, um, uh, half a million into the S&P, it's stable, it's, it's reliable, and it's very liquid. Now, if I, my account goes into a negative, my trading account goes into a negative, I can top it up because I have access to the money and the money is growing. This gives me mental peace because now I can see my account is growing without me working. And a trader's arrogance is, I'm going to trade my money because I can think, I think I can beat the market. Why not use the market? Let it help you, and then have working capital to beat the market? So, I just realized if I'm doing 1% risk per trade on my, let's say, a million-dollar account, why not have 100k accounts and do 10% risk per trade and the other 900,000 I still have it liquid and maybe that's growing at a 5% to 10% a year. So, I'm now gaining profits which I might be down for a week, but my P&L on my portfolio might be up and my risk in dollar amounts is the same. It's just I've modulated my overall portfolio in such a way where it's, it's favorable. Uh, that's what I did.

I think it's also powerful to not exclude yourself, and I'm speaking to the listener from anything to do with investing and with doing anything to do with just compounding your wealth, even if it's very, very small steps. I myself also joined you in that, in that move, and even though I am not as far into my, my journey or, uh, with the capital that I have access to, it's still a meaningful step, and it was still a meaningful return, and it was still a positive feedback loop that was enforced, and it led me to take bigger and bigger and bigger steps. And I'm probably going to look back at this five, six, seven, 10 years from now and be like, I'm glad that I did this, and this is going to be something that's, that's useful. If your net worth is 10, 20, 30 grand, it's not a couple million. Don't exclude yourself from that. Just put 100 bucks here, 500 bucks here. Yeah, just do the math.

Uh, so we can end the, the show on this. No matter your financial level, most people can afford £100, $100 a week. Maybe right now you can't, but in your 30s, 40s, 50s, you probably can. If you, from the age of 25 to 60, can do $100 a week, your net worth will be 1.6 million. You will be a millionaire if you do $100 a week. It might be hard in your first few years. At some point, it'll be effortless. At some point, you might even do $200 a week. Everyone can be a millionaire if you just invest soon enough. Even though it's unsexy to be a millionaire when you're 60, let's say now you start to make more, you can put in more. You don't have to do 100. It's not a, it's not a hard limit. If you now can afford to do 500, can do more than 500. Do that and you'll be a millionaire sooner. It's almost like a guaranteed thing. And I think it's a powerful message to end on.

Bro, thank you for this beautiful episode. I'm sure the people enjoyed it. Boom. There you go.