Transcription
And for most people, a very unexpected Bitcoin signal is now flashing or is about to flash. And that is what we need to discuss within today's update video. Because this signal here is one of the most important ones I have seen in quite a long time. And of course, in yesterday's update video, we did discuss the Bitcoin versus gold correlation this bull market.
But now I'm going to discuss this correlation but during all of the previous cycles, which is even more important in my opinion, because this signal always, because this signal, because this signal always did lead to major Bitcoin rallies to the top side. So let's discuss exactly that within today's update video. We will discuss a lot more than only that, like all of the most important Bitcoin charts. I will give a big update on my Ethereum trading position and of course, we will take a very big dive into Ethereum and the upcoming altcoin season. So from there, guys, make sure to first of all subscribe to the channel and watch and like my latest YouTube videos, and then we can dive into the most important content.
The big rotation for Bitcoin is happening now. The gold versus Bitcoin correlation is showing us something very important, and we did discuss this for the bull market in yesterday's video. I will come back to that chart a little bit later here. But first of all, I do want to discuss the Bitcoin versus gold correlation for the previous Bitcoin cycles, because what's happening for Bitcoin now is quite insane. If we see, for example, the gold line here, which is the yellow line, the gold price action, we have seen one of the most exponential moves to the upside for gold ever, basically the most exponential one, if you don't count, for example, the 1970s and 1980s. But it is indeed a very exponential move, and once we are going to see a potential top here for gold, which is in at one moment, the gold top is going to get formed, it is going to happen at a certain moment, because gold is actually very overextended here. It's easy to see that, and a rotation could be happening much sooner than most people think. And during the previous cycles, once we did see an exponential gold move to the top side, a rally, and then we saw the rotation. So we saw a top for gold where, where after consolidation followed, that was the exact moment where the Bitcoin bull markets basically got started. This was 2021. At the moment, gold did make a cycle top and start consolidating. Bitcoin saw a major move higher. And in 2016 here also, we saw an exponential move up. And then for Bitcoin, once the gold rally stopped here, once we saw a local top, a cycle top, basically, even then Bitcoin saw a massive move to the top side here, basically the entire bull market.
Do I think exactly the same is going to happen? No, because the timing is different here with 2020 and 2016, because there we are talking about the halving years and not the post-halving year. And now we are in a post-halving year, so it is indeed going to be different. You're not going to see an entire cycle move because of this rotation here from gold. But what I do think that it is going to be is a very bullish signal, because once that top is going to get formed for gold here, I actually do think from there a lot of money could rotate out of gold to, for example, Bitcoin. We could catch the digital store of value narrative once again. And that has been one of the strongest narratives for Bitcoin this cycle. But now, in my opinion, that narrative is a little bit weaker. I don't see that many people talking about it anymore. But once that is going to return, and I do think within gold top, something like that could happen, it is going to be very bullish for Bitcoin, in my personal opinion.
We also do know that the Bitcoin versus gold pair is showing on the Z-score that we are very oversold. The difference with, for example, this Z-score and the RSI is that Z-score shows you the deviation from the statistical average from the Bitcoin versus gold price, the Bitcoin versus gold pair. And the RSI would be showing you momentum. But both indicators do show the same, and that is that an asset is very oversold or very overbought compared with the normal price, compared with the normal momentum. So yes, the Bitcoin versus gold pair is very oversold. And actually, the last times we saw levels like we are seeing now for the Bitcoin gold pair, we have seen a few times before. But every single time we saw this oversoldness hit the Bitcoin versus gold pair, we saw major market bottoms also for the Bitcoin versus gold pair, which means that after that bottom, Bitcoin always started to outperform gold, uh, yeah, after the bottom was made. So that is of course very interesting. Let's see if that could be playing out once again. But it does indeed look very bullish.
Now I do want to come back to this important Bitcoin chart. We have been discussing this for a long time on the channel. Like stated, I think that as long as Bitcoin is going to hold above this 50-day moving average trend line, we are looking good. That's going to be for me confirmation that we are still in a bull market. If we might be dropping lower than the 50 daily, I think a bear market could be hitting. But of course, I will be keeping you guys up to date. We have seen in other corrections that sometimes we grab a little bit of the liquidity below the 50-day moving average. So something like that could still happen. We could still see a liquidity sweep for Bitcoin. But ultimately, that is the phase and the moment where you do want to see Bitcoin bounce. Otherwise, we are going to be in somewhat of problems.
I personally think not only the Bitcoin versus gold correlation does show during all of the other cycles, but also during this bull market specifically, where we have seen phases where gold is leading, basically, and we have seen phases where Bitcoin is leading. And now it seems like if gold is going to put in a local top here, then we are going to transition into a new Bitcoin leading phase, and that is going to be very bullish for the markets, because I think once Bitcoin is going to initiate the final wave, it is also going to be very bullish for Ethereum and altcoins, because I think those are going to follow in the ending stage of the cycle. But this is going to be the moment where you do want to see that happening, because we are quite far ahead in the cycle. The four-year cycle is also almost ending. So yeah, this is going to be the moment.
But back to the chart, we have indeed the Bitcoin leading phases where gold sees consolidation and Bitcoin moves up. Then gold starts moving higher and Bitcoin starts consolidating, and that happens over and over again this bull market. So it would make a lot of sense for that to happen again here for the final stage, for the final wave for Bitcoin. So this bull market, but also the previous cycles. The Bitcoin versus gold correlation is a very important one. And me personally, I do think this is one of the most bullish signals I'm seeing in the market. I'm looking a little bit more long-term at the current moment, but yeah, it is making me very bullish. So yeah, I can't help myself but to be bullish. I think that looks very good for Bitcoin. But yeah, on somewhat of the short term, I am cautious with this important moving average 50 level, because we do know once we did lose that level during the 2021 uh bull market, we entered a bear market. So this is indeed a very important level, and I will keep my eyes on exactly that. But on the micro perspective, I do think Bitcoin is looking perfectly fine.
Here another Bitcoin versus gold correlation chart where we do see that Bitcoin usually lags behind about, let's say, 60 to 90 days after the gold price action. So if that's going to be the case once again, we could literally be seeing a new bounce back up for Bitcoin happening anytime soon here in the next few weeks.
Also, the Bitcoin funding rates have been turning negative recently, and now they are back slightly in the positive. But of course, funding rates turning negative is somewhat of an indication that we are getting closer and closer to a bottom, or the bottom might already be in. So that is indeed going to be a very bullish buy signal.
What the news that we did see come out today, which is a little bit more bearish, is that Israel is breaking the ceasefire deal with Hamas, and they are now attacking Enga once again. So that's of course not good for the markets, not good for anyone, but most definitely also not for the markets. Let's see if this will be causing more uncertainty over next week. Let's see about exactly that. But we just saw that news coming out, so I don't know everything about it yet.
And now I do want to give a big update on my Ethereum trading position, because I'm still in a slight loss on my Ethereum position, but I don't care that much, because most people on the channel know we have been slowly DCAing in into our position, and our average entry price is now 4K, total position size about 27K. But yeah, ultimately, I think we are going to make a nice profit on this Ethereum trade in this ending stage of the cycle, once also Bitcoin is going to start moving, because then Ethereum is going to follow. That's my thesis. I still have some limit orders open at the 3.6K and 3.45 level. Let's see if they can get filled in the near future, because I still think Bitcoin is on the short not looking that strong. It's actually looking a little bit weak, I personally think. So that's why I could see a 50-day moving average liquidity sweep happening, and then I think Ethereum is also going to drop a little bit lower. This does not have to happen, but I'm going to be safe with my limit orders in place, and I do want to be accumulating on the dip if you're going to get to those levels. So let's see about exactly that.
If you do want to join me on this trade, make sure to claim a 20% deposit bonus on ElBank and also some other Apple products. You can find the link to claim this offer here with the link in description on this update video. Not only that, you can also enter a new giveaway I'm personally hosting with ElBank, but this giveaway you can find on my Twitter page. So, also make sure to check out the Twitter page. But if you just want to claim a 20% deposit bonus and more to potentially follow my Ethereum trade or open a lot of other trades on, for example, a lot of altcoin pairs on Elbank, make sure to click on the link here in description on this update video, because using that link, you will get redirected to exactly this page where you can claim your 20% deposit bonus and an Apple giveaway set. So make sure you check it out. I do think this is going to be the moment where you do want to claim a bonus, because you can basically be buying the dip with more capital. But of course, in no way financial advice, you should do what you want. But on the other hand, you are also helping out the channel. You're supporting me with using my link. So yeah, if you do want to do so, make sure to check it out and claim that bonus.
And now I do want to dive back into the Ethereum chart, because I do think this is a possible scenario for Ethereum. We are still trading inside of this bull flag, and I could see Ethereum uh dropping a little bit lower before eventually heading higher. Like I said earlier, it does not have to happen, but it could happen here according to the bull flag. But of course, once we are going to break this downward trending resistance line, resistance level, that's going to be the phase where a new exponential Ethereum move could be starting, just on the all-time highs, which is in my opinion looking very bullish. Ethereum is once again bouncing from off the bull market support band with a second wick. And that's also exactly what we saw here before this major Ethereum wave higher. So the bull market support here for Ethereum is also looking very good in my opinion.
My plan for Ethereum is still the same. I do think this bull market, we are going to see 5.3K to 6.4K. Those are my top targets. Those are targets where I will be scaling out and in between. So yeah, of course, I will be updating you guys on the channel. Do know those are my targets, because these are the targets of the Fibonacci levels, and these levels have been spot on with us predicting this entire Ethereum move up, where all of these levels always corresponded with major support or resistance in the market. So yeah, I do think those next Fibonacci targets are going to be very big resistance levels for Ethereum in the final wave. But in that final wave, that's also going to be the phase where I think altcoins could see a window of outperformance. So let's see about exactly that.
And also, we have an interesting bottoming structure playing out for Ethereum, because what we are now seeing for Ethereum is looking much like what we saw for Bitcoin during the 2021 consolidation phase, where we saw, of course, the Japan carry trade crash, and we saw a major move lower. We saw a big wick, then a second wick, and also that is exactly happening for Ethereum now. But I must say, you could draw this in a few different ways. This does not have to mean that we are not going to see a deeper wick or another wick fill. But I must say, the bottom structure is in my opinion looking quite bullish for Ethereum here, after of course such a big liquidation event. It is indeed looking very interesting, and I do think that the bottom is getting very close. Of course, but I was saying that earlier also in the update video.
The Ethereum versus Bitcoin pair is also looking good on the bull market support band, basically also like the Ethereum versus USD pair. The Ethereum versus Bitcoin pair is also looking good here for Ethereum versus Bitcoin. I personally think that we could drop below the bull market support band before heading higher, because if I'm going to look what happened here before this major rally higher for Ethereum versus Bitcoin, which I'm still expecting there, we also saw that we dropped below the bull market support band, actually a few times, before eventually heading higher. So I do think that could happen once again here. Probably something like this could be playing out. If Bitcoin is going to take the lead from here, if Bitcoin is going to initiate the final wave, Ethereum could maybe lag a little bit, and then eventually head higher, and then after that, also altcoins can start outperforming. I do think that is going to be the scenario, the most possible, the most probable scenario. So let's see about exactly that. Of course, I will keep you guys up to date, like stated earlier.
Others versus Bitcoin. So the smallest altcoins first, the Bitcoin pair also looking good. I do think for this pair a potential cycle bottom is in, because we touched a major level here with this liquidation wick for altcoins, and from off this level, we have seen quite a few big moves getting initiated for the others versus Bitcoin pair. So in my opinion, this chart does look very interesting. So let's see how this is going to play out here in the near future.
For the Bitcoin dominance, I do think that what we are going to see here is Bitcoin taking the lead, heading a little bit higher, then Ethereum, and then altcoins. That is going to be what I think is going to be the most likely, most probable scenario here for the ending stage of the cycle. So yes, I do still believe in altcoin season. I think it is now a great moment to accumulate if you do still believe in altcoin season, and for example, bet on Ethereum here with my position. I'm doing it myself. So I'm basically walking the talk here. And yeah, I hope and I think we will be making a nice profit here on the Ethereum trade in the near future on the channel.
And guys, that was it for today's update video.