Transcription
Hello, Business Tomorrow Live with Trader KP. At 10:00 AM on July 16th, the operations of attacks by the United States and Iran are still ongoing. This is the 5th day that the United States has been attacking Iran, and today's attacks seem to be expanding their targets deeper into the heart of Iran, beyond the original areas near the Strait of Hormuz and the southern regions.
The US Central Command, or CENTCOM, recently announced that it had launched several waves of attacks on Iran, with operations concluding an hour ago. This round of attacks targeted military capabilities related to efforts to control the Strait of Hormuz. The targets included coast guard units, missile sites, and Iranian media reported that the attacks caused explosions on Qeshm Island and in the Shabahar region.
Recently, President Donald Trump threatened that the attacks would expand deeper into Iran if an agreement could not be reached in the coming days. Meanwhile, the US military stated that it had intercepted a missile targeting an oil tanker attempting to head towards an Iranian port in the Strait of Hormuz.
On the Iranian side, air defense readiness has been activated in Tehran to prepare for retaliation against US attacks. The IRGC also reported attacks on US military bases in several locations, including Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan.
The current issue is that Iran has threatened to escalate pressure on other energy transport routes. The IRGC stated that Iran might close all energy transport routes that benefit the United States and its allies, following the US's re-blockade of Iranian ports. It is being watched whether this will involve the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Recently, reports indicated that this is a new target for Iran and the Houthi group to increase pressure on the United States and its allies. Finally, is there still a chance for negotiations? Because Vice President JD said that despite the attacks, the US still wants to reach an agreement with Iran. This is a development that the world is watching with concern.
Today, we will analyze this matter with Dr. Sarawut Ari, Director of the Center for Muslim Studies, Institute of Asian Studies, Chulalongkorn University. Hello, Dr. Sarawut.
"Hello, Khun Gita, ladies and gentlemen."
"Doctor, how do you analyze the latest situation? The US attacks, which were initially said to be aimed at limiting Iran's capability to control the Strait of Hormuz, are now expanding to other areas beyond near the Strait of Hormuz and southern Iran."
"Yes, it's a situation of escalating tensions that has erupted anew. It's something many parties have predicted. Because the MOU that was signed actually had quite a lot of confusion. Many people said it was more of a MOM, a Memorandum of Misunderstanding, especially regarding the clause about the Strait of Hormuz in the MOU. I think each side interpreted it differently. Iran sees the MOU as giving them the right to manage the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States sees clause 5 of the MOU as Iran having to allow maritime vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz freely. But ultimately, when there is no understanding between them, it leads to the confrontations we are seeing.
At the same time, I think the MOU issue is something that the United States itself, I believe, is not very sincere about implementing the proposals or conditions of the MOU. They are trying to legitimize themselves. We can clearly see that Donald Trump is trying to explain to Congress that Iran attacked oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and this has caused the United States to resume operations. In simple terms, the United States itself is not sincere about the MOU. They want to find legitimacy because in the first round of confrontations, the United States lacked legitimacy, as the US attacked and invaded Iran first. But now, after the MOU was made and a ceasefire was established, the United States claims that it has started anew, that there is a threat to maritime vessels, and this has caused the US to take action and use this as a reason to continue the war with Iran in Congress. So, it has become an issue where I think the administration is not very sincere about the MOU. This might be because the MOU that has passed reflects Iran's victory and the US's disadvantage. I believe the US wants to overturn this MOU to negotiate and bargain anew. But to negotiate anew and give the US more advantage and power at the negotiation table, the US must use military operations. And as you, Khun Gita, mentioned earlier, I think it's clear that besides the US attacking around the Strait of Hormuz, Qeshm Island, and various cities in southern Iran, the US is now delving deeper inside. This is because, as we know, Donald Trump previously stated that if Iran does not return to negotiations, he will destroy bridges and power plants in Iran. In simple terms, he will destroy civilian targets, not military ones. I think this is the factor that has led to the US's increasingly severe operations. I must say, ladies and gentlemen and Khun Gita, that the US cannot defeat Iran by using military force. Instead, they want to bring Iran to the negotiation table in an atmosphere where the US has a higher bargaining power."
"So far, it seems the US has been trying to use this maximum pressure strategy all along, with demands that may seem intense or military operations. But from your perspective, Doctor, can attacking the inner regions or important infrastructure achieve the goal? Will Iran back down, and will America get what it wants with this new round of military force?"
"I think the core issue is the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is not yielding in the case of the Strait of Hormuz. Why? Because first, Iran sees the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip. Iran had no bargaining power with the United States before. Regarding nuclear weapons, it was still ambiguous whether Iran was actually advancing its nuclear weapons development. But in the case of the Strait of Hormuz, it is clear. When Iran can control and occupy the Strait of Hormuz, it gives Iran a very strong bargaining position, leading to what we saw in that MOU. Second, I think Iran sees the Strait of Hormuz as a future deterrent. This means that the conflict between the United States and Iran will not end, and it will erupt again in the future. But by Iran wanting to deter the US and its allies from doing this again, controlling the Strait of Hormuz is important. Because whenever the US and its allies do this again, Iran will take measures to economically pressure the world, leaving the US and its allies with no choice but to cease their aggression against Iran. And I think Iran also needs the Strait of Hormuz to manage its relations with various countries in the world. Because many countries, a large number of them, benefit from the Strait of Hormuz, including maritime oil transport. Many countries benefit from this. I think in the future, if Iran can control this strait, Iran can manage its relationships."
"Meaning, whoever is not an enemy of Iran will receive concessions, or even exemptions from paying fees. But whoever becomes an enemy, especially Western nations, will suffer greatly. I think this is the key issue that leads to this new round of confrontation today. The United States also will not allow Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz. Arab states are also displeased, while Western nations see their future if they allow Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, I think Iran will not yield its power in this regard. This is something that will lead to the current operations of the three parties not being successful. In simple terms, you can close the Strait of Hormuz using military forces and bombs, but you cannot open the Strait of Hormuz using bombs and military force. Today, I think the US is at a disadvantage and must come to talk and negotiate. Otherwise, there is no way to open the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran will not allow the US to do so, nor will Iran give up its rights in this regard after suffering from the war. The Strait of Hormuz, in the words of the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, is a gift from God. Therefore, this is a big issue, and I don't think they will yield."
"So, even if they attack inner regions, infrastructure, or any point, if they cannot seize the Strait of Hormuz, America will not win this battle anyway. And Doctor, you believe Iran will definitely not release the Strait of Hormuz, and not just Hormuz. Recently, the IRGC said they would expand to other energy transport routes in response to the US's naval blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz again. Doctor, how do you see the direction of other risky areas? Which points are you referring to, and will they actually do it?"
"Threats from Iran of this nature have occurred before. If the situation escalates and the US continues to use blockade methods or maritime encirclement against Iran, and especially attacks Iran's civilian infrastructure, Iran will likely adopt a strategy of blockading the sea on the other side. Besides the Strait of Hormuz, we know that Iran has allies in Yemen, namely the Houthi group. And the Houthis, in the past 2002-2023, have conducted maritime operations in the Red Sea with considerable success. Because if we look back, many cargo ships, even the majority, had to take the Cape of Good Hope route around Africa to transport goods, unable to use the Red Sea. However, the Houthi group has never operated in a way that blockades the Bab el-Mandeb Strait or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It is therefore questionable whether the group has the capability to do so. But in the past, it must be admitted that the Houthis are a rapidly developing force. Since the war with Saudi Arabia in 2015, when Saudi Arabia attacked Yemen and blockaded the Houthis, the Houthis retaliated. Initially, they could not fight the air force of Saudi Arabia and its allies. But later, we saw significant development where the Houthi group was able to develop its military capabilities, using drones and missiles. And in around 2019-2020, the Houthis were able to launch missiles and drones to attack Saudi Aramco oil facilities, if anyone remembers. This shows that the Houthi group has military capabilities and may use drones and missiles to blockade or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as well. Iran itself uses missiles, drones, and mines to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthi group may use the same methods to blockade the strait. However, today, I think Iran cannot order the Houthi group. While the Houthis are allies of Iran, they also have their own interests in Yemen. The Houthis want to be accepted by the people of Yemen. In Yemen, there are many groups and factions fighting. There are southern separatists, the Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula movement, independent groups that are part of the Islah movement, and a government recognized by the international community in Yemen. Therefore, there are factions fighting for power in Yemen's politics. Meanwhile, the Houthis must prioritize their own political interests in the country first. Especially after the Houthis have negotiated with Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia wants the Houthi group not to conduct operations in the Red Sea because some of Saudi Arabia's oil must come out of the Red Sea through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Therefore, I think the Houthis must consider their own country's political interests. If they rashly close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, it could lead to the international coalition forces, led by Saudi Arabia or even the United States, claiming legitimacy and launching heavy attacks on Yemen. This would damage the Houthi group's popularity. But if the Houthis remain inactive and do not join Iran, it could weaken Iran, and ultimately, the Houthis would be isolated from Iran and face the international coalition forces led by the US or Saudi Arabia alone. Therefore, today, I think the Houthis are quite hesitant about operations in the Red Sea, whether to blockade or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, or to wait and see. It is difficult to guess the Houthi group's intentions. However, as you, Khun Gita, have informed the audience, Iran has threatened today that there will be a blockade of another strait in the Red Sea. This is something we will have to continue to monitor. We cannot make a definitive prediction because throughout the past few months of conflict between the US and Iran, we have observed that although the Houthis have expressed sympathy for Iran and stated their readiness to join Iran, they have never conducted operations in the Red Sea or blockaded the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. I think this depends on the Houthi group, not on Iran."
"But the latest signals from the Houthis and Saudi Arabia seem tense. Doctor, there have been missile attacks against each other, despite a ceasefire agreement. Will this tension further fuel operations in the Red Sea, even if they haven't done so in the past 3-4 months?"
"Yes, this is the latest event that I find interesting. In fact, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia are quite wary of each other. Saudi Arabia is wary of the Houthi group because of their relationship with Iran. Therefore, even though both sides agreed to a ceasefire in 2022, Saudi Arabia has not lifted its blockade measures against the Houthi group in Yemen, and still maintains measures to prevent aircraft from landing at the airport in Sana'a, the capital of Yemen. However, the latest situation, the latest event, the clashes between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, occurred because an Iran Air flight attempted to land in Sana'a. Saudi Arabia views this as Iran sending weapons or experts to help the Houthi group. Meanwhile, the Houthis say it was a humanitarian flight carrying patients, bringing back people who attended the funeral of Ali Khamenei to Yemen, and it had nothing to do with security. But this reflects that Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are still very wary of each other. However, one thing that is a tacit understanding between them is that as long as the Houthis do not operate in the Red Sea and do not blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Saudi Arabia will not join the United States and Israel in fighting Iran. This is something that, I think, is not written down in black and white, but there is a mutual understanding between the two sides. But in today's situation, with this new round of clashes between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, this could be a turning point that might lead the Houthi group to decide to join Iran and conduct operations in the Red Sea. It is possible, but it also depends on Saudi Arabia. Because if Saudi Arabia stops here, does not continue to attack Yemen, and uses existing channels to talk with the Houthi group, I think the Houthis will still not take measures to disrupt the Red Sea as they did before."
"But if there is indeed disruption in the Red Sea, it will be a double blow that causes a crisis. Doctor, the cost of pressure on Iran will be immense. The Hormuz shipping route accounts for 20% of oil transport, and the Red Sea accounts for another 5%. This will further impact the interests of almost all Arab nations. Will it reach the point where Arab nations clearly act against Iran, or even enter into a state of war with each other? Recently, there is interesting information that the US is selling weapons to Saudi Arabia for approximately $1.96 billion and is also providing an aircraft support package to Kuwait for $484 million. This is an armament and security reinforcement on the Arab side."
"I must say that the trend of the Houthi group operating in the Red Sea has increased recently. Not because of Saudi Arabia, not because of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries or Arab states in the Persian Gulf, but because of pressure from the United States and Israel. The United States has opened a new conflict with Iran and is blockading Iranian ports. At the same time, they are attacking Iran more severely. Today is the 5th or 6th day, and the US operations have not ended. And the United States is increasing pressure on Iran more and more. I think this will cause the Houthi group to decide to join Iran. Khun Gita, you must understand that..."
"Yes."
"The Houthi group needs Iran. They cannot let Iran be attacked alone. Because ultimately, if there is no Iran, the US and its allies will eventually turn to deal with the Houthi group anyway. Therefore, today, I think the factors that will cause the Houthi group to join Iran are the operations of the United States and the operations of Israel in Lebanon. In simple terms, the 'Resistance Movement' is interconnected. If one side is weak, it can affect the other. Therefore, if they fight, they fight together. If they don't fight, they won't have this kind of confrontation. But currently, I think the situation is escalating into pressure on the Houthi group, which may lead them to come out and operate jointly with Iran."
"What about the Arab world, Doctor? News about reinforcing arms or dissatisfaction from the Strait of Hormuz, and now pressure in the Red Sea. Will this cause them to become belligerents with Iran?"
"The Arab world must be divided into several factions. Of course, we see the UAE siding with the United States and Israel. This has been clear during the past few months of war. But there are countries like Qatar and Oman that maintain open lines of communication and negotiation with Iran. In simple terms, they are reaching out to Iran and trying to improve relations and build cooperation with Iran. But there is another group of countries, led by Saudi Arabia, that is trying to remain neutral. They are not siding with the US or Israel, nor are they approaching Iran, to the point where Saudi Arabia seems to be close to Iran. Saudi Arabia maintains a neutral stance and tries to balance the various factions within the Arab world. Today's situation is one where I think Saudi Arabia, as a country with significant influence in the Arab world, still maintains its stance of wanting to stabilize the Middle East and does not want to expand violence or war into the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has experience with war against the Houthi group for a long time and sees the consequences. Saudi Arabia is currently caught between the conflict between Iran and Israel, where Israel and the US want Saudi Arabia to be part of the war against Iran. But Saudi Arabia cannot do that because if Saudi Arabia jumps to one side, the situation will escalate and affect Saudi Arabia's own interests. Therefore, when we talk about Arab states, I think there is great diversity, and it cannot be spoken of in terms of unity or uniformity."
"Yes."
"Yes."
"But generally, they tend to lean more towards the US side, or will they further pressure all parties to come to the negotiation table, because their interests will inevitably be affected by war or conflict?"
"As I mentioned, I must say that the UAE and Bahrain are on the side that wants the US and Israel to continue the war and decisively deal with Iran. As for Qatar and Oman, they want a new regional order by accepting Iran and trying to negotiate with Iran for coexistence in the future. As for Saudi Arabia, the elder brother of all, it does not want to see a strong Iran, nor does it want to see Israel's ambitions succeed. Therefore, today, I think we should watch the stance and role of Saudi Arabia. But what we see now is that Saudi Arabia is trying to push for an end to the war and stability in the Middle East. And I think if Saudi Arabia follows this path, it will have a mindset closer to Oman and Qatar than to the UAE and Bahrain."
"But before, Iran spoke of a new round of war, saying that if it had to fight the US again, the war would not end with Iran, but would become a regional war. In fact, it was spoken of further than the Red Sea. Doctor, how do you assess the risk of a full-scale war occurring?"
"Currently, if we go back to clause 1 of the MOU, it states that wars on all fronts must cease. But today, what we see is that war is occurring on almost all fronts where there is conflict. In Lebanon, it has not ended. And Israel is unlikely to agree to end the conflict with Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Syria is becoming a new front that is about to erupt, a confrontation between Turkey and Israel. And Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are starting a new round of clashes. Meanwhile, in Palestine, the Gaza war has not ended, with continuous attacks. This is the overall picture that reflects that the war situation in Iran today has become a war that is not only happening between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz or solely within Iran. It is expanding. And it includes the GCC countries, which were not previously affected by the violence of war in the Middle East. Today, GCC countries are directly affected by Iran's military operations. Therefore, today, it can be said that the Middle East is a regional battlefield, a fragmented war, and there is no direction that will bring peace to all fronts. Unless, today, the US and Iran must return to talk and negotiate again. And I think today, one positive sign we see is that Donald Trump called Netanyahu and told him to withdraw troops from Lebanon and Syria. I'm not sure if Netanyahu will comply, but it's a positive sign. Another positive sign is the news that the IRGC has released an American citizen who was arrested in 2024. Donald Trump also stated that this is a positive gesture, a positive development. I think that currently, the US and Iran must reconsider, because continuing the war will not lead to either side achieving a decisive victory. America cannot force Iran to suspend its nuclear program. America cannot force Iran not to support allied forces throughout the Middle East. America cannot force Iran to develop missiles, and America cannot force Iran by force to open the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran cannot stop America's military operations. Iran cannot force the US to blockade itself in the strait. Each side, I think, knows its limitations. Today, I think the negotiation platform is waiting ahead. War of this nature has no way out. There is no loser and no winner, but there must be talks and negotiations to find a solution.
"Yes. And as you said, Doctor, the ultimate demands seem unlikely for both sides. But are there minimum demands that can create common ground to eventually bring them back to the negotiation table?"
"I think, as I mentioned from the beginning, the current situation is one where each side wants to show its power to gain an advantage in negotiations. Iran has succeeded before, as we saw in the MOU. But America feels it has been disadvantaged and defeated, leading to new operations to overturn the old MOU and negotiate again, so that the US has some bargaining power regarding the Strait of Hormuz, armed forces, Iran's missiles, and various other issues. I think we will see negotiations soon. Provided that no accidents occur in the meantime. If there are serious accidents during this time, such as US attacks deep into Iran that are so severe that Iran cannot accept them, leading to the blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in cooperation with the Houthi group, or Iran's operations against GCC countries, causing Saudi Arabia to no longer tolerate it and to cooperate with the US and Israel. This will become a long war. In simple terms, if today the actors are limited to only the US and Iran, negotiations will be the solution. But if it expands to involve many more actors in this war, that will be a critical turning point that will cause the situation not to end with negotiations, but may drag this war on for a long time."
"Which actors or roles seem most risky, Doctor? If this side joins, will it cause the scope to expand and become uncontrollable?"
"Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia alone. If they choose any side today, it will worsen the situation. I must say that the US and Israeli side is trying to draw Saudi Arabia into the war and then leave the responsibility of dealing with Iran to the Arabs, without having to do anything themselves afterward. But Saudi Arabia is aware of this and is trying to remain neutral, not showing any inclination to side with the US or to have close relations with Iran. They are trying to manage this balance of power for their own benefit. But today's situation is one that I think is risky. This is because, in reality, Saudi Arabia is also displeased with Israel's role. But they do not want Iran to be the sole power controlling the Middle East. Therefore, today, whichever side gets Saudi Arabia will have a significant advantage. But that will mean it will become a prolonged war and may lead to sectarian conflict, such as a war between Shia and Sunni, or Arabs and Persians. This is risky. But as we are talking now, Saudi Arabia's stance remains the same, Khun Gita. They have not chosen any side but are trying to push for stability, negotiate for talks with Pakistan, Egypt, and Qatar."
"Yes, this is a clear picture we see."
"Yes. But if we understand Saudi Arabia, Doctor, what do you think would be the trigger point that would make them decide to go to war or choose a side?"
"I think energy infrastructure and economic development infrastructure according to Vision 2030 are important factors. If Saudi Arabia feels it cannot proceed with Vision 2030, its energy infrastructure is destroyed, or the situation affects the existence of the Saudi royal family, this will be a critical turning point. And I think Iran would know this, and Iran tries to avoid any operations that would affect Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure or affect the morale or the existence of the Saudi royal family. This is important. We see that Iran's operations in the Persian Gulf countries have always claimed that the targets are the interests of the United States. American bases, American soldiers, or American companies in the Persian Gulf countries are not civilian targets. If they were civilian targets, this would be a problem for Saudi Arabia as well. Because if Iran conducts operations targeting Saudi civilian populations, this would be another factor that Saudi Arabia would have to retaliate against, and might even join the US. But today, we do not see that phenomenon yet."
"And finally, Doctor. What is the outlook for the near future? We have seen fighting for 5-6 days now. In the letter the US submitted, it stated that the new round of operations against Iran was on July 7th, which seems to be the official start of a new conflict. The previous conflict lasted about 4 months before this eruption. How long do you think it will be prolonged? What will the world have to face in terms of geopolitical turmoil and volatile oil prices?"
"Many parties say it will become a prolonged war. Because Iran will no longer trust the United States and will find it difficult to return to negotiations. America may continue with blockades and limited military operations like this to gradually weaken Iran. We may see this scenario as a prolonged war, but it will not be a war that erupts violently like it did initially after the February 28th incident. There may be attacks on Persian Gulf countries. America may conduct operations in Iran. There may be blockades of Iran. Iran will retaliate. This will be a situation that may be a prolonged war, not easily ended. But there is hope, Khun Gita. There may be new negotiations. And we see signs, as I mentioned earlier, that the US and Iran feel that neither side can win this war. The economic and political costs are high for both sides. And we still see new signs emerging, such as Donald Trump talking to Netanyahu to withdraw troops from Lebanon and Syria, and the IRGC releasing Americans. I think the opportunity for both sides to return to negotiations still exists, even though it is difficult now because Iran's trust has been lost. But the opportunity for negotiation, in simple terms, is that they cannot be friends, but managing the conflict between the two sides can happen. Another worrying situation is the war that is expanding its scope. As we discussed earlier, the battlefields have now spread throughout the Middle East. In Lebanon, it is about to erupt in Syria. Persian Gulf countries have been attacked, and some countries have taken retaliatory measures against Iran. The Houthi group and Saudi Arabia are facing new clashes. Iraqi forces allied with Iran are contemplating whether to join operations with Iran. These are things that have the potential to cause a regional war to expand. And if it expands like that, I think the situation will be dire. And importantly, the current war, in part, has become a war of straits, a war where each side tries to seize power and influence over the straits. Today, what we see is that the Strait of Hormuz is closed due to the latest clashes, and it is spreading to the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. If both of these straits are closed, this will be a catastrophe. Because I understand that 30% of the trade goods between Asia and Europe pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Meanwhile, one-quarter of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is something to watch closely. Whether it will be disrupted, and if it is disrupted, how it will affect the global economy and us. This is something to follow."
"If there are developments, we will invite you again to share your knowledge with us. Thank you very much, Doctor. Thank you. Hello."
"This is the perspective of Dr. Sarawut Ari. The situation in the Middle East that the Doctor sees now is not good. The risk of war spreading throughout the region is not unimaginable. On many battlefronts now, after the clashes in the Strait of Hormuz, the new risk point is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, an area of influence that is currently tense with Saudi Arabia. In addition, other battlefronts are occurring simultaneously. In Palestine, there is already conflict. In Iran, there are problems. Furthermore, Lebanon and Syria remain risky areas that require vigilance. And besides the strategic areas of conflict, the straits that are oil transport routes are not just issues related to the Middle East, but also connect global energy and goods. Besides Hormuz, if the Red Sea is closed, the disruption of transport at these two points, the Doctor said, is a global catastrophe. And it may cause a chain reaction to other parts of the world. Therefore, what we need to watch is the escalation in the Middle East, and the person who may play a significant role in changing the course of the war is Saudi Arabia, the elder brother in the Arab world, who will decide whether to join the war or to maintain neutrality and try to end the war, because the economic impact will be immense. What will be the indicator is whether Saudi Arabia's future growth vision will be affected. If Vision 2030 is affected, will Saudi Arabia choose to join the war? This is what might be a game-changer in this war, which we may have to accept will be prolonged and will escalate. Thank you all very much for watching. We will see you in the next live broadcast. Gita and the team say goodbye. Hello."