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Alright, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review. We are going to prepare for a trading week. We had a low volatility week. We will see if next week we expect a big move or not. We are still here between two boundaries. So there you go, we will look at the different scenarios. We will do this for Bitcoin, Ether. Then, we will talk about the SP500, gold, silver which are at ATH. We will see how it is possible to have both an SP500, stock market indices, risk-on assets as we call them, at ATH and safe-haven assets, risk-off, which are also at ATH. We will analyze three altcoins that were requested for analysis. I have Morpho, Nir, and Ton. Before I start, for those who are waiting for the Sunday email from the trader letter, exceptionally, it will be sent tomorrow. I've fallen a bit behind and I prefer to send you a complete email rather than rushing it to meet this timing. So there you go, don't be surprised if you don't receive it today. It will certainly be in your inbox tomorrow at 6:30 PM as usual. And for those who are not subscribed, I invite you to click on the first link in the description. You will arrive on this form, enter your email here, and click here to join. Every week, I send an email packed with value where I generally explain how to trade better, I share tools, tips, lessons. We talk about trading, investing, mindset, crypto, psychology, many such points are covered. The goal is to bring you maximum value. So I invite you to click on the first link in the description.
On BTC this week, very little volatility, which is not surprising. There were the holidays, so the 24th, 25th, not much volatility. The 26th, a bit more, as we can see here with buying pressure, an upward movement, immediate rejection by sellers, then on Saturday and Sunday, not much volatility either. We are still in this phase of sideways movement, blocked here between two boundaries. Above all, the yearly close is approaching. I never look at the yearly close from a price action perspective because, well, many will tell you "Oh yes, that sends a signal." No, Bitcoin is too young for a yearly analysis, it's not possible, okay? We don't have enough history to truly start drawing patterns, drawing things like we can on 4-hour, daily, weekly charts. That's not possible. However, what I like to monitor for the yearly close is the pivot points. Now, you know, those who use these indicators, every time we have a close, new pivot points appear, and we will see a yearly pivot point appear here. These are always interesting levels that act as support and resistance. We can see clearly on this year 2025, well, we reached the pivot point, our resistance one. It acted as resistance. Here, the main pivot point acted as support. We see that historically, these are levels of interest where it can act as resistance or support depending on whether we are above or below. So, new year, yearly close, meaning new pivot points. And these are long-term levels, points of interest. For investment in general, these are very relevant levels where the market is likely to react. Of course, we will have new monthly pivot points that will also need to be monitored. Well, that's the work we do every month, but again, these are levels of interest. We can see that this month, the main pivot point acted as resistance. If we look at the previous month, support 1 acted as, well, support. Support 2 also had a reaction, and each time, these are levels, points of interest where the market is likely to react. We see it perfectly here. So, it's coming up in 3 days with our close. We will have time to talk about it again, of course, but it's something that absolutely needs to be monitored.
I'm coming back to this chart. Bitcoin is still in this compression phase. If I add a volatility indicator, we see that we have a compression here and extremely low volatility. We don't have a visual violet flash yet. This is an indicator that calculates volatility. And when we reach movements with very low volatility, we get a violet flash. The violet flash indicates that a big move is being prepared. And historically, every time we've had a violet flash, well, on weekly, we've had a big move. We see here, a strong drop at this level, low volatility. Then, we had a big pump. Here, we had a violet flash. Volatility returned. We had a big move. This works on all timeframes. Of course, the pump or dump will be proportional to the timeframe. The lower the timeframe, the bigger the move, but proportional to the timeframe. We won't have a +20% on 15 minutes. But in any case, you see, if I zoom out on 12 hours, it starts to flash. We see this at the same time as the price, as when we are in a compression phase. So, I wouldn't be surprised, in any case, on Monday or Tuesday, to have a strong move on Bitcoin. At least to reach either the upper extremity or the lower extremity. As I say, the goal is not to predict where the move will be, but it allows us to know that attention, a big move is being prepared. And then, it's not surprising that at the beginning of each week, generally, we have high volatility and a big move that is simply being prepared. So there you go, still blocked between two boundaries. There's no need to get excited. We see that the market is taking its time. Yes, I know this range exhausts many people. Okay, I see it on social media, I see it in many different ways that people are fed up. And that's good, the market needs to exhaust as many people as possible. We can't take off if everyone is already on board, if everyone is bullish. And the best bottoms, this one for example, or even this one, are built when everyone is afraid, when everyone says "It's over, it's not going to move, it's the end." Okay, we are not there, absolutely not. All right? We are still at high levels. When, frankly, when you zoom out on a logarithmic scale, well, we are high compared to where we came from in 2023, we are very high. The market has retraced very little. Okay, if I draw a Fibonacci in logarithmic scale, just out of curiosity, to see where we are. We are at 0.382. You have to put the Fibonacci in logarithmic scale, otherwise it's useless. Alright, the 0.382 levels are much lower, which are around $56,000. So, that's to show you that the downward movement we have here compared to the entire rise since 2023 is very insignificant, and that's why you have to put it in perspective, to realize that yes, we can still go down. I'm not saying that's what will happen, but I'm just saying you have to be prepared and have cash, in any case, lower down. Being fully in altcoins, being all-in, might not be the best solution.
Now, for this week, what will need to be monitored? We still have moving averages oriented downwards. Oops, I'll take the pivot points. The 4-hour tunnel still acts as resistance. We are still inside our 3-day tunnel, the daily tunnel is oriented downwards, and the very short-term moving averages, here on 1-hour and 15-minute, are generally flat. All right. We are flat, we have low volatility, we are in a range. So, for trend continuation in the short term, there's nothing to do. We still have a 4-hour that acts as resistance here, creating selling pressure. And there you go, we are reaching the end of this compression. We see higher lows and lower highs. At some point, the market will have to make a decision. Oops, it will have to make a decision and see how the market behaves. Now, I don't trade breakouts from compressions like this, from wedges, flags, or anything like that. Here, I see a range. Of course, I see the compression, and in fact, the compression simply creates liquidity at the extremities. Why? Because above the highs and below the lows, we have stop losses waiting, simply many long or short positions accumulating, and as long as we don't liquidate, more and more liquidity is created at the extremities, and when we trigger this liquidity, it can create a short squeeze or a long squeeze. And if there's no counterparty on the other side, we can have a strong move. Now, is that what we're going to have? I don't know. We'll just have to observe it when we reach these highs. But if we start to reach a high and there's no counterparty, it means that stop losses are triggered, but the market pumps and pumps and doesn't form a top. We can continue after that. It can create a snowball effect. Now, I've always told you that we are in a downtrend, we have selling pressure here, and a range preceded by a downward movement. We are more likely to break downwards. Okay, that's a fact. So, for me, we are more likely to break this sideways phase downwards. Now, I'm not, I'm not narrow-minded. That is to say, if the market breaks upwards, well, we will continue the trend to reach $99,000 and $106,000. And if we break downwards, well, I have cash here that will be ready to be deployed. All right? And I will trade, of course, in the direction of the trend with moving averages that will take a downward direction, like here, like here. And that's very interesting for trend continuation. So there you go, and also monitor. We will see, oops, pivot points, there. We will see weekly pivot points that will be created. Why? Because it's a new week as well, since we have our weekly close. So, again, we will have to monitor the new pivot points. This week, we didn't have much volatility, so we didn't reach resistance one or support one. We see that we consolidated at our main pivot point, but since I expect a bit more volatility in the coming week, we will have to monitor the new pivot points.
Just on economic announcements, I haven't talked about it, I usually do that at the beginning of the video. Well, there won't be much next time. The next one will be January 5th for the PMI. I told you, we are in relatively calm weeks. We have the OMC, that will be on the 30th, all right? So in 2 days, Tuesday, and then, well, we will have to wait until January 5th to have quite a bit of, well, quite a bit of volatility. Not specifically, it's not an announcement that has the importance of PCE, inflation, unless we really have results significantly above or below expectations, but in any case, not many announcements this week, which is not surprising. Generally, the last two weeks of the year, between Christmas and New Year's, it's rather calm. So we will have to wait for a bit more volatility to trade this type of movement. You see, the goal is not specifically to anticipate what will happen, it's simply to accept where the market will go and trade in the direction of the flow. If the market goes up, well, we follow the trend and look for longs. If the market goes down, well, we follow the trend and simply look for shorts.
Regarding, where are we? Pretty much the same, we are blocked between two boundaries. We still have this volume profile that characterizes the interesting levels within this range. Below the value area, below $2900, it could be a good zone to look for buys if we have a buying reaction. To revisit a pullback on the middle of the range, the POC, as we did here, we have a key example. We go back to the lower extremity, buying reaction, we come back to the POC. Here, we go back to the upper extremity, value high. Selling reaction, we re-enter the value high, we go back to the BR, even the opposite extremity. Here, it's a battle zone between buyers and sellers, with still a rather bearish pressure since we have moving averages oriented downwards. All right, a 4-hour tunnel that acts as resistance. Also, a daily tunnel. We had a pullback at this level. It really reminds me of this phase of the market. Oops! Oops! We lose the 4-hour. We go back to the daily tunnel here. Now, is it to break, to make a trap and re-enter? Why not? But it's true, it reminds me of this phase. Here, we will see what happens next. You see, maybe I should put it on 3 days. I don't know, maybe it will be more visible. Here's the top, the top at this level, the good drop. Okay, we re-enter and then a W structure. We could have a W structure, retest for example $300. Well, we'll see. I'm not too much into fractal patterns like this, into fractality because each market is always different, but sometimes it reminds me, because by looking at charts a lot, I know the Ether chart, the Bitcoin chart, pretty much by heart on daily and weekly. So, well, it reminds me of certain moments that I've experienced in the past. And well, on Ether, it will be exactly the same. Pivot points will need to be monitored. Yearly pivot point, again, these are always levels, points of interest. Oops, I'll display them. Let's go to weekly. Always points of interest that can act as support or resistance. You see, we came back to put a bottom on support 1 of the yearly pivot point of 2022. Here, the yearly pivot point acted as resistance. Oops, this one acted as support. This one also acted as support. It now acts as resistance. So, always the same, levels of interest. So, depending on these closes, we will have to monitor the new yearly pivot points. We also have monthly pivot points. We will have to see where they are. This month's weren't the most relevant. Although the main pivot point did act as support and resistance. Last month, they were quite good. We see that we perfectly placed a bottom on it. The best was the one from October. We see that it framed our range with support 1 acting as support, which is our lower extremity, and the main pivot point which acted as resistance here. So, again, in 3 days, we will have to monitor the new monthly pivot points, and that will allow us to frame our charts to know for January what are the interesting levels to monitor.
After Ether, we are also in a compression. If I look at the volatility, just to see what it looks like. Daily, it flashes violet. Okay, you see the last time we had a violet flash was here, volatility. Big move afterwards upwards. Here, we have flashes a bit, we had a move afterwards, rather downwards. And here, again, it flashes violet. So, we'll have to see the move, whether it's one way or the other. Well, we'll see. On weekly, it's been a very long time since we've flashed. The last time was during this whole phase, July, August, September 2023, after which we had a big upward move, but it's quite rare on weekly to have a violet flash. Same here, low vol, then a big move. It's an indicator that is rarely wrong, because, well, it's directly linked to what the market offers us, and the market doesn't like to stay with low volatility for very long. So, yes, I think the first two weeks of 2025 are likely to be eventful, given the compression we are currently experiencing. If we start to accelerate downwards on Ether, we had seen the next targets. The next one is around $2200. If, similarly, we have a big compression with higher lows, I don't know why my, oops, it's always black. There. With higher lows, there are quite a few stops below these lows here. If we start to go for them and there's no reaction, it simply means, well, we'll have a long squeeze. No reaction at all, meaning no counterparty on the other side to absorb the market sell orders that will be executed. We can very strongly have a big red candle and reach much lower levels like $2200. However, if buyers show up, well, the zone to monitor will generally be $3400, our range high. If we break this level, expect a return to $3800 and $4100. But $3800 is the biggest level in my opinion.
So, we are a bit in a phase of uncertainty, in any case, on Bitcoin, and for me, the best thing is to be patient and wait for a more significant signal with real confirmation. And here, the best thing you can do currently is to prepare for what's next. Prepare your levels, prepare the cash you want to allocate, the zones where you want to take profits if you are in a position. And we are rather in a period where we are preparing. All right? That's really important.
Regarding the US market, well, we have the SP500 making a new ATH. The Nasdaq is not far behind. We have gold making ATH after ATH. We have silver here which is soaring and making ATH after ATH with a price discovery and very strong momentum. All right, it's very violent what's happening since 2025. We have a chart that is very vertical. How is it possible to have an SP500 here? So, that means, generally, stocks. I remind you, the SP500 is the 500 largest companies by market capitalization in the United States. So, the fact that the SP500 is at ATH means that the stock markets are doing rather well. Except that I remind you, stocks are risk assets, they are not like gold, like the dollar, like bonds. We are rather on assets called risk-off. Generally, you have a decorrelation. That is to say, when risk-on assets perform, it means that investors are willing to take risks to generate performance. All right? We will see on the other hand, risk-off assets underperforming, simply. Except that here, we are in a period where we have safe-haven assets with the SP500, the Nasdaq, generally indices performing rather well. How is this possible? Well, I was asked this question in the video the day before yesterday. My answer is simple. People simply don't want cash. We are in a scenario where, generally, when stocks perform, the dollar index goes down, and as I say, gold, silver, etc., will also go down because we are rather in a risk-taking scenario where risk-on will perform. Except that here, we are in a phase where everything is pumping, the dollar index is not performing much. We are in a phase where people don't want cash. They want to get rid of cash. They don't believe in cash. At the moment. All right, it's not to say that in 2 years it won't change, but at the moment, we have all types of assets performing except cash. All right? For me, we are in a scenario where cash is not profitable. Cash doesn't interest people, and that's why whether it's risk-on or risk-off. For me, this is one of the most conceivable scenarios, because otherwise, yes, it's true that it's a rather rare case. And again, generally, when the SP500 goes down, the dollar index goes up. It's quite classic. You see if we can compare the chart if you want. Oops, there. Now, there are always phases of, of course, there are always phases of decorrelation, it happens. But you see, at that moment, during this whole rise in the dollar index, the SP500 went down. Exactly when the dollar index topped, the SP500 bottomed. You see, we have a top here again, oops, we have a decorrelation between the two. It's not 100%, it's not possible. But very often, when we have a market that is more risk-on oriented, we will see the dollar index go down. And yes, for me, this is the only scenario that is, well, not the only scenario, but the most likely scenario. It's just that people don't want cash, and unfortunately, it's not the crypto sector that's benefiting the most currently.
Now, regarding altcoins, I was asked for an analysis of Morpho. Where are we on Morpho? Well, we are still in this sideways phase. For me, here, we are reaching a good zone, but only and only if we have a buying reaction, because here we can clearly see that on daily, the chart is bearish. We have moving averages here, oops, oriented downwards. 4-hour below the daily. We have a small sideways phase. Did we reach this low? No, we didn't reach it. I would like to have one last bearish push to have a slightly lower bottom, so you have a better risk-reward, your invalidation is below the low, and we start closing weekly or even 3-day below this level, which would really indicate that we are ready to break through and exit this entire sideways phase downwards, and we can play a return towards the average, around $1.7. That could be a good localization zone if we go back to this level. We have a W pattern here, entry at this level, oops, stop below the low here, and TP globally at $1.75. A risk of 4 for 1, it's a good risk-reward. You don't have an 80% chance of executing this trade, but even if you have a 40-50% chance, yes, around 40%, I think it's an interesting trade. All right. So, for me, this is the only scenario I see here on Morpho. It's one of the only charts. No, I'm exaggerating, maybe not one of the only ones, but in any case, many altcoins are breaking their lows. Morpho is holding up rather well. Okay, after all, it has dropped quite a bit. In the last few weeks, we are at -45%, but that's less than some altcoins that have really suffered. Now, what we need is a buying reaction and a clear invalidation with good risk management, because if we start losing these lows, we exit this level downwards, and then we can go much lower. So, we will have to look to get out, otherwise there's no point in staying on it.
Next, NIR. NIR is rather ugly. I think I already did an analysis two weeks ago, I believe. The fact of having gone below this level, of having broken it, of having pulled back, rejected, pulled back again, rejected. We see that we have acceptance at this level, when we can't re-enter. We have moving averages, again, oriented downwards, the 4-hour acting as resistance, the daily is also oriented downwards. It's ugly here, but there's not much to do. Now, yes, we are reaching very low levels because it's low, it can't go lower. Just because something is cheap doesn't mean it's interesting. Just because something is expensive doesn't mean it's no longer interesting. You shouldn't think like that. It can be cheap at this level, but it can become even cheaper and even cheaper. All right? Here, we can be in the same scenario. We can very well do this, then this, then this, and then maybe pump. And for sure, if you enter here and you are here, you are happy. But if you can avoid immobilizing your capital for a year, it's always more interesting. So, for me, the best thing is to wait for this buying reaction. For me, there are two ways to have an interesting buying reaction. Either we have a re-entry at this level, and then we say "Okay, good, we have a signal that's pretty good. We're back above a level." You see, it's like being back above this level. Here, we had a key support level. Oops, we break it, we accept it, we see, we go below it, we reject it. And then, at the moment we have this wick low, it comes to take this liquidity. In one week, we swallow several months of decline here. That's a pretty good signal. So, here, if we do something similar or something like this, there. And we re-enter, then there can be an interesting entry. Either that, or if we continue to slide, wait for a reversal pattern. Ah, it will never be like this, but I don't know, something like this. You see, here you try to enter at the time of the pullback. Either you enter here, you see, we have a structure, we break, we pull back on the neckline. Then it can be interesting. So, several types of entries depending on the scenario we will have. And then, if we continue to break down, well, you don't enter, of course. The goal is not to enter haphazardly. So, there you go.
B, after that, the objective, you can put Fibonacci retracements. Already, returning to a 0.382 of this entire movement is a good zone to take profits. There is also this zone from a price action perspective that is rather interesting.
Last crypto, Ton. We have retraced well. We have pumped quite a bit in 2024, but we have returned to very low levels. Well, this accumulation zone, we have returned to our range zone here. Yes. For me, the chart is ugly. Even if we are reaching a support level like many altcoins, we are in a bearish chart with moving averages oriented downwards and price action oriented downwards. And what we are missing is a buying reaction. It's generally the same, to have here, oops, a W structure that shows us that we have validated a bottom. You see this type of pattern? At this level, we have a W structure here. Here, we have a W structure. Here, we have a larger one. Well, I don't trade the larger ones because there's too much volatility, too much amplitude, it's complicated. But to have something that shows us that buyers are present, and then we can again aim for a retracement. But for now, well, the chart is bearish. The highs are lower and lower, so we have to be patient. And there are many altcoins in this configuration. For me, the best thing is generally to be patient and wait for a better signal. Especially since, for me, Bitcoin and Ether have not validated a bottom. I'll leave you with that. I've said everything I wanted to say.