Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. I believe we are live. So, let me just double-check here. Yeah, I think we're live. All right. Um, let me know if the audio or anything is not working, but Bitcoin is kind of at a critical level right now, and I just wanted to go through some of the different things.
So, to start with, I will go over sort of my baseline assumptions. And one of those is that I think next year is a bear market, right? As we've said before. And I mean, a lot of that just stems from just looking at all the prior bear markets, right? 2014, 2018, and 2022. So, I think it makes sense to operate under the assumption that if it's not broke, don't fix it. And therefore, likely 2026 will also end up being a bear market.
And so then, what's what's happening now is we're figuring out where the top is. There absolutely is a chance that the top is in, right? I mean, I think one of the, probably the two best indicators for the top being in for Bitcoin for this cycle. I would say that if, if you, if you made me pick two, because there's plenty that don't suggest the top is in, right? And there's plenty of, of indicators like the MVRV Z-score and the PI cycle top and all that stuff that hasn't triggered. So, if we were to try to figure out like, well, what indicators would suggest the top is in? I believe there are two. One of which is just the ROI from the low, right? If you look at the ROI from the low for Bitcoin in this cycle, you can see that if the top was in October, then it would have occurred, it would have occurred right around the time as the tops in the last two cycles, right? So, in that sense, from a time-based perspective, it is certainly possible that the top is in.
From a monetary policy perspective, right? If you were to just look at, at monetary policy and let's just say you throw the four-year cycle out the window and you say, you know what, I don't believe in the four-year cycle, but I believe that, you know, that that monetary policy has a plays a role. We know that last cycle, Bitcoin topped out a couple of months before QT ended, quantitative tightening. And we know that quantitative tightening will be coming to an end, uh, in, in December. And so, I mean, it's possible again that you had a top just before the end of QT, just like we had a top over here just before the end of QT. Now, the hard part with this is that we're at the end of a potential four-year cycle, whereas in 2019, we were not at the end of a four-year cycle. And so, the difficult part for that is when you go to a lot of the indicators, right? If you were to go look at like say, like the PI cycle top or something like that, like it's not really close to triggering, right? Like it, but also it didn't trigger in 2019 either. It triggered later on at the end, you know, in the post-halving year. And I mean, that is one of the reasons why this cycle feels so hard for a lot of people is because on one hand, a lot of people are waiting, oh, I'm not sharing screen. Okay, I'm showing the screen now. My bad.
So, going back, let's just recover or go through what I said. So, there's there's two indicators that you could argue would support the idea of the top being in. One of them is the ROI from the low, right? So, if you go look at the cycle ROI from the low and you look at this cycle compared to the last two cycles, like it it seems like that could have been it, right? From a time-based perspective, we've kind of used up our our runway. So, we have to be aware that October could be the top. And if it is the top, then there's a good chance the low would be approximately one year later. So, if October is the top, then there's a good chance that October 2026 would be the bottom. So that's the first thing. From a time-based perspective, our runway has kind of expired in terms of the ROI from the low.
If you look at monetary policy, you'll notice that last cycle in 2019, just before quantitative tightening ended, Bitcoin topped out. You'll also notice that quantitative tightening will be ending in December. And so, there is some merit to the idea that, hey, that could be a local top right there, right? Like that could be a local top and we just kind of struggle for a few more weeks and then eventually we we we kind of confirm that that is in fact the top and and we don't get another big rally up to or up towards it. One of the interesting things about this comparison though is that in 2019, it was not the end of the post-halving year, whereas this time it is. And so, back in 2019, we did not have things like the PI cycle top like going off, right? Like there was nothing about the PI cycle top that was triggering back in 2019 when monetary policy was changing. There's also nothing triggering today. If you look at the terminal price of Bitcoin, that's also another indicator that would suggest we could go higher. But again, it's now Q4 of the post-halving year and we're not.
So, there's only two outcomes here, right? I mean, one is that people are just too impatient and it's going to happen. The other is it's like the 2019 cycle where it just kind of stalls out before you get there. Now, the good news is if we don't go into euphoria phase, then it would likely make it so that the downturn in 2026 isn't as bad. Because if you ignore the pandemic, Bitcoin dropped about 50% from the high, right? About 50% from the high.
So, one of the things to consider, and I've said this a few times, is that in 2019, Bitcoin was fighting to stay above $10,000. Okay? And it ultimately gave up $10,000 after quantitative tightening ended. Okay? So, a lot of people think about like QT ending as as the start of of a major run, but remember last cycle when QT ended, it actually was when Bitcoin started to drop below 10K. Now, again, 2025 is not 2019. One is a post-halving year, one is a midterm year. But one way to visualize the comparison between say 2019 and 2025 is to look at the price of Bitcoin color-coded by the social interest, right? Like the social risk. And you can see that this entire bull market has been accompanied with relatively low retail interest. And so, in a lot of ways, it's similar to 2019 as, and I'm pulling the chart back up because Bitcoin is is right at 100K. A lot of ways it's similar as back then it was fighting to stay above 10K and today it's fighting to stay above 100K. Right?
And if you were to overlay Total 3 divided by Bitcoin. So, if we just look at the comparison of all Bitcoin pairs, let me, um, move this to a new scale here. Um, let's see. Pin the new right scale. Let's see if we can get this to work. Okay, there we go. All right, so here we are. Yeah, I'm not really sure why this is messing up so much, but, um, Oh, I think I clicked on an indicator and pinned it to a new scale. There we go. All right. Yeah, that's what I did. Okay.
So, when Bitcoin was trying to stay above 10K in 2019, you can see that while it had it had drops below 10K, it still kept going back above 10K as long as all Bitcoin pairs were above the range lows. Right? So, you can see like all Bitcoin pairs were at 0.25, 25, um, by September when QT ended. And looks like Bitcoin's about to go below 100K here. There it goes. It's below 100. So, that was what happened right back then is Bitcoin like started dipping below 10K, but every time it would do it, it would then like take liquidity from alts. So, to give you an example, when Bitcoin first started to go below 10K, it was in July, late July. And when it happened, when when it happened, all Bitcoin pairs were around point, around three. Where is this one? It wasn't .36, was it? That's what the chart says. But I don't think that that's right because this is, Oh, this is Total 3. I'm not looking at Total 3 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin. This is just Total 3, um, divided by Bitcoin. So, I need to, I need to fix that. So, maybe we can go up here and we'll do Total 3 minus divided by Bitcoin. I think that's what we want to do because because then we're like working with things that we are at least, uh, familiar with. Um, I made the same mistake. Okay. Pin a new scale. All right. Now we're in business. All right.
So, back in 2019, when when Bitcoin started to drop below 10K, again, this was like a couple of months before quantitative tightening ended, Bitcoin dropped below 10K. And at the time, all Bitcoin pairs were at around what point, which scale is this one? Yeah, I don't know. This is, uh, I think this one here I need to just remove. All right. Around .34 maybe. Yeah, like I'd say around .34. And today they're at around .36. And so, what happened back in 2019, again, sort of leading to the end of quantitative tightening, Bitcoin would start dipping below 10K. And then as it would do it, it would then kind of like pop back up and then come back down and then pop back up. And as it did that, altcoins went lower on their Bitcoin pairs, right? So, like altcoins just went lower and lower and lower on their Bitcoin pairs, and then Bitcoin was staying relatively flat. So, what essentially was happening was like Bitcoin was taking liquidity from the altcoin market to try and stay above 10K. And again, sometimes it would dip below it and then it would go right back above it. And that happened, you know, that went on for for a few weeks. Now, now, I've seen some people say that like, you know, this is not a rotation back to Bitcoin because Bitcoin's going down, but you can have rotations and the price go down, right? Like Bitcoin is just going down, not as fast as the altcoin market. And so, again, the the the argument is that Bitcoin, if the cycle top is in, the argument was altcoins would drop a lot more in route to Bitcoin confirming that the cycle top is in. And so, right now, you know, Bitcoin is down about 20% from the highs. All in all, like it's been down 20% from the highs many times this cycle. Uh, but altcoins on the other hand are down, um, about 25%. Right? So, they're they're down a little bit more than Bitcoin from that that most recent high. Now, they're down a lot more against Bitcoin when you compare it to where where Bitcoin's, um, all-time high was with respect to where it was last cycle. I mean, like altcoins are down 25% from the high, but they're also down 25% from the high in November 2021, whereas Bitcoin is up from the high in November 2021 by about 45%. Right? So, I mean, it, we can frame it in ways that make it sound like the altcoin market is is better than it is, but in reality, like, I mean, it is, it has been struggling for for quite a while. And and so I think the argument that you could make is that Bitcoin perhaps is going to try to do the same thing it did in 2019 before quantitative tightening ended. And essentially, what that is is like it'll drop below 100K for a little bit and then it'll try to go back above it and it'll continue that process for a while. And as that process continues, it's just going to take liquidity from altcoins. So, if in December we're sitting here and you know, Bitcoin is still struggling and all Bitcoin pairs are a lot lower, let's say they're actually finally at that 0.25 target that we've talked about, uh, for the last several years. If you're if you're new to the channel, one of the things that we've mentioned before is that all Bitcoin pairs will likely end up going to 0.25, right? Where they're all their their valuation against Bitcoin is 25%. That's kind of been sort of like a long-term target. And we noted that last cycle they hit 0.25, um, when quantitative tightening ended. And we know quantitative tightening is going to end in about a month. So, what that means is that all Bitcoin pairs are likely to drop about 30%. Right? So, altcoins are theoretically set up to drop 30% against Bitcoin over just the next few weeks. Now, obviously, that could play out in any number of ways. I mean, it could play out by Bitcoin dropping and altcoins dropping more. It could play out by Bitcoin going up and altcoins not catching a bid. It could just happen if Bitcoin kind of bounces around like it did in 2019 and altcoins just don't get that same type of bounce, right? They lag the bounce.
So, if you look at this chart, all Bitcoin pairs, and you overlay Bitcoin USD onto the chart, um, you'll see what I'm talking about, right? So, here, Bitcoin was staying above 10K in that range in 2019, just before QT ended. And while Bitcoin was staying above 10K, all Bitcoin pairs were dropping like 47% or something crazy, right? Like they were just dropping non-stop, just like they've already dropped 16%. And if they were to continue to go down to say 0.25 again, it would be a 40% drop from the high that we had in September. And remember, September is usually when Bitcoin dominance kind of reverses course from whatever direction it was going in.
Now, look, I know a lot of people are emotional and and they want me to, you know, be comforting and and whatnot and and and call for certain things, but at the end of the day, we have to trade the market that we have, not the market that we want, right? And as far as I can tell, as far as I can tell, these market conditions are more similar to a 2019 style top than any of the other post-halving year tops. So, it's not the same as 2013. It's not the same as 2017. It's not the same as 2021 in the sense that there's no euphoria. That doesn't mean it's not going to end up being a top, right? I have said for years that the top will likely be in Q4 of the post-halving year, right? That's always the most likely outcome because that's always when it's happened. You have Q4 of 2013, Q4 of 2017, and of course Q4 of 2021. And so, obviously Q4 of 2025 would make some sense. So, again, the question is, is well, you know, is the top in or not? I will say this, if there is another rally, if there is another rally, it will be led by Bitcoin, right? Like it, it, it's not going to be led by the altcoins in my opinion. Now, if once quantitative tightening ends, I, I might change my tune, but that's still about four weeks away. So, again, I'm trying to trade the market I have in front of me right now, not the market that may or may not exist in four weeks. Okay?
So, what I'm saying right now, and we've always said this, right, ever since the high in August or in October, was that if the high is in, then Bitcoin dominance will go up as Bitcoin goes down and then as it chops around. If the high is not in and by some miracle we're able to hold support here again at the 50-week moving average and we're able to get another rally, then it will be led by Bitcoin, right? Like it will not be led by the altcoins in my opinion. Now, again, I could be wrong, but it will not be led by the altcoin market. The altcoin market, as it has shown you for the last four years, is going down basically against Bitcoin, right? Like it's going down. So, Bitcoin represents the best of crypto. So, if the cycle is over, then there's absolutely no hope for the altcoin market. Absolutely no hope. If the cycle is not over, then Bitcoin can lift other things, but Bitcoin dominance would still likely go up. There's no such thing as as a free lunch, right? Like a lot of investors want there to be a free lunch. They want to buy something. They want it to go up immediately and then have their free lunch. But with investing, you have to take, you know, you have to figure out like where you're going to put your money. And in crypto, when you're thinking about like opportunity cost, Bitcoin is a better place. Now, I'm not suggesting Bitcoin can't go down. We know that Bitcoin could go down. In fact, in the bear market, the bear market low of 2026, I could see Bitcoin going down, you know, probably below the prior all-time high of 69K, right? Like, I mean, if we're being honest and upfront about everything. But I mean, the two-in-a-week SMA is always a decent target. And we could even go below that. And that's currently at around 50 or, yeah, 55K. It's just it looks up here. It looks like it's up here because it's switched to a different scale. But, um, that 200-week SMA there is is likely going to come into play next year. So, don't forget about the 200-week SMA. It will be important in 2026. The only question is, is, you know, is there is there a pittance of of anything left in the market? The only thing, like the the only thing I would say is is is sort of this, the the all Bitcoin pairs, right? You know, during the devaluation period in 2019, Bitcoin did have some rallies in it, but a lot of them were lower highs. Now, the 2025 rally has been slightly different in that in 20, 2019, we had a series of lower highs. In, um, in 2025, it was actually a series of higher highs, right? So, it's not like it's not the exact same market structure. I can't look at it and say it's the same because it's not, right? Like, I mean, it is, while monetary policy absolutely does play a role, it's not the exact same thing because we're looking at the end of a potential four-year cycle now, whereas in 2019, we were not. So, if there is anything left in the tank and Bitcoin is able to sort of come out of this scary drop like it did the last few times, you're still likely looking at only a slightly higher high, right? Like, not that much higher because I mean, you can see that that prices are starting to stall out, right? One of the things I've said before with the S&P 500 is like, what, one of the things you look for is you look for like a year period where the market isn't really making significantly new highs, right? So, look at the S&P in like '99 to 2000 or in, um, you know, like in 2007 to 2008, like it, it made some new highs. They just weren't that significant and it took place over about a year. And so, when you look at Bitcoin, you're like, well, I mean, yeah, it's made new highs, but they haven't really been that significant. And so, a lot of buyers are starting to get exhausted because the price of Bitcoin today is the same that it was 11 months ago, right? So, I mean, if you bought Bitcoin 11 months ago, you're still sitting at break-even today, and it's Q4 of the post-halving year. And no matter what anyone says, in the back of everyone's mind is the fact that, hey, next year there's a high chance it could in fact be a bear market year if it plays out like all prior midterm years. And I tend to think that it will, right? Like I tend to think that next year will be a bear market year. And my guess is that you're witnessing the topping process of Bitcoin.
Now, what's interesting, I mean, we're at a very critical level right now. I mean, this is a very critical level because we're sitting right at the 50-week moving average. We're actually sitting a little bit below it. Okay? And I've told you guys before that on multiple weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, that would likely be confirmation that the top is in on weekly closes, right? So, in 2021, when you got a couple of weekly closes over here below the 50-week moving average, you would have known, right? You could have known the top was in. And back then, I mean, Bitcoin was below the high, but you still would have potentially avoided a, you know, a 60 to 70% drawdown, right? Like a 68% drawdown, just by accepting it and not fighting what the market was telling you. Um, so, again, I have to be a student of the market, right? I cannot sit here and tell you what has to happen. I'm just telling you how I will react under certain under certain conditions.
The other thing to look for here is the weekly relative strength index, or the RSI, because this is a level that we're, like the level that we're at right now is kind of representative of the, um, you know, of the strength of the bull market because this level has been held as support for a number of times in 2023 and in 2024 and in 2025, and we're crossing it again here. One of the things you'll notice though is that we've been witnessing lower highs for the weekly RSI, right? We're getting lower highs every every step along the way. And so, like, you know, I've seen so many people call the top on Bitcoin dominance because of things like the RSI, right? Like, think about how many people thought that Bitcoin dominance had topped for years because of the RSI, right? Like they they kept saying, "Well, the RSI is putting in lower highs." I mean, Bitcoin dominance's RSI on the weekly literally topped in October of 2023 when Bitcoin dominance was only 54%. So, like, if you called the top on Bitcoin dominance in October of 2023 because that was the high in the weekly RSI, you would have missed out completely on dominance then going from 54% to 66%. In the same way, like if you said that March 2024 was the top when the weekly RSI was 88, you would have missed the price of Bitcoin going from say like 69K all the way up to 126K.
Now, it's obvious that the bull market trend has been weakening, right? Like we can see that it's been weakening. There's no doubt about it. Every rally that we've had has been a little bit less spectacular, right? We had a, you know, almost a 200% rally, and then like 118% rally, and then the last rally was a paltry 68%. Right? No one wants 68% unfortunately these days. So, if you do get another rally again, it probably won't be enough to bring retail back in any durable fashion, right? Because if you believe in the four-year cycle, we're we're just running out of time. It doesn't mean that you can't have an altcoin season at some point in the nebulous future, but it would just seem like we're running out of time.
Now, the big sort of the big thing here is that, you know, obviously quantitative tightening ending and getting another rate cut and maybe the government shutdown ending. I mean, like, you know, it's not like we can't imagine narratives to get the FOMO pumping again at some point, but I mean, that's not what's happening right now, right? So, I, I, I think, you know, if you start seeing weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, it's going to correspond to weekly closes of an RSI lower than we really want to see, right? And we had one back in March 2025, but it was a fake out.
One of the charts I've been looking at recently is, you know, uh, Bitcoin versus the NASDAQ. Because one of the reasons why it's interesting is because like if you look at Bitcoin divided by the NASDAQ, it's actually at the same level it was at back in March of 2025. Like, like Bitcoin hasn't really, like it, it did decouple. It just decoupled in a negative way, right? And so, you could argue that like Bitcoin might be leading, like Bitcoin might be showing you what the stock market is eventually going to do and just hasn't done yet. Um, but I, I do, I do look at this and I wonder, all right, if if this, if that was a support level, could Bitcoin bounce against the NASDAQ here? The problem is like, you know, is it bouncing because the NASDAQ is just dropping to its bull market support band, which Bitcoin has already done? Like, why is it, why is it doing that?
So, again, to be a student of the market, I have to just say I will react to to what this market throws my way. And for now, I'm still of the belief that the most likely outcome is we're in this phase where Bitcoin is like chopping around instead of being instead of chopping around 10K, it's chopping around 100K. And as it chops, alts keep going down against Bitcoin. That's the best example I can find. I think if you sit around at this point, I mean, because now we're in November, I, I think if you sit around waiting until 2026 to see some of the top indicators trigger, you might be, you know, you might be disappointed. That doesn't mean that Bitcoin won't eventually go higher. Like, it probably will. I mean, you can look at the chart and see like Bitcoin went into a bear market and then we had another spectacular bull market during quantitative easing, lower interest rates, and just money printing in general. Right? So, like, it doesn't mean that that is not going to eventually come back.
What I am saying is that what if people are looking at this and saying that if we are in, because a lot of people will take what I say and say, well, if this is 2019, does that mean, does that mean the cycle is going to go on longer? And I'm saying this, if, if the bull market phase can last longer than this bull market, then this sort of this smaller bear market, let's ignore the pandemic, what if the downturn that comes when QT ends just ends up being the 2026 bear market, right? And then you go into another bull market after that. I think that's a perfectly viable way for that for it's a way in which the four-year cycle remains intact and just a lot of the top indicators don't go off. And maybe they don't go off because this entire cycle was accompanied by quantitative tightening and higher-for-longer interest rates, because that is exactly how 2019 played out.
All right. Now, if I'm being honest with you guys, and I, I do, I, I feel like I, I do need to be honest here. If all, like, do you guys remember when Ethereum went home, right? You guys remember that when Ethereum went home and, uh, let's pull it up, and it got a nice rally, right? Like it got a really nice rally after it went home and it went to a new all-time high, right? Everyone remembers that. And when it happened, ETH/Bitcoin seemed like it was dead, right? Like it, it really seemed like it was dead. And if you look at ETH/Bitcoin's market cap ratio, it went to the same place it went last cycle and then it, it bounced anyways. Like, and so, I mean, I look at this chart and I'm like, well, I mean, it still kind of looks like that, right? Like, I mean, it kind of looks like that, but it bounced anyways, even though people would have had you believe it was just going to go down forever and that that bounce would never happen.
There is a very big part of me, and I could, for the first time this cycle, for the first time this cycle, I can say this with a clear conscience. There's a big part of me that thinks that Bitcoin dominance is going to absolutely explode higher. I know you're rolling your eyes. You're like, "Well, I mean, yeah, of course you think that. That's what you've been saying for four years." But I think that there is a really high probability that Bitcoin dominance could top in December for a for a while. Okay? And I don't say that lightly, right? Like I really don't. But I think that that dominance, there's a really good chance that it will top in the month of December 2025. Now, the hard part is, what does that mean? Like, what is, what does actually that mean? Um, because when it topped in 2019, what did it correspond to? It corresponded to the government ending QT, right? To the Fed, not the Fed. It corresponded to the Fed ending quantitative tightening. Now, I've said that for years, and obviously a lot of people have lost patience with that. But what if, like, what if this time is not different? Like, what if Bitcoin dominance has been going up this entire cycle for the same reason it went up last cycle for the entire time QT was ongoing? Like, what if the reasoning is the same? I know there's a lot of narratives out there that people would like, you know, want you to believe, but what if all it really is is based around monetary policy?
So, what I'm suggesting is that if this time is not different and if the thesis that I've had about Bitcoin dominance is in fact correct, because one of the main reasons I've been so bullish on Bitcoin dominance is because of monetary policy. But we're going to have another rate cut, more than likely in December. I mean, I know, I know Powell has pushed back on it a little bit. Uh, let's go look at at current market expectations. I mean, right now, there's a 70% chance they're going to cut. Um, so, you know, you're going to have interest rates come down again. If they go below four, you know, they're getting really close to the neutral rate. You're going to have quantitative tightening ending. So, the tailwinds for Bitcoin dominance, for better or for worse, are likely going to come to an end in December. That doesn't mean that you need to like it or I need to like it. Again, it's important to remain objective, right? It's just that in 2021, when we first started becoming very bullish on Bitcoin dominance, the reasoning we gave was monetary policy, right? Like I never said anything about it being due to the ETFs or it being due to Treasury companies. I mean, those are just convenient narratives that that we can like we can assign to to make ourselves feel better, right? And you could even argue that monetary policy is a narrative to we can assign to make ourselves feel better. But at the end of the day, at the end of the day, like what if the reason for Bitcoin dominance just simply going higher this entire cycle is because all Bitcoin pairs have just been so against going to the range lows when in last cycle they went there in the pre-halving year. This cycle, people don't want to give up on their alts, right? Like they just haven't wanted to give up on their altcoins. And so, rather than go to the range lows like we did last cycle, it's taken a lot longer. But we also saw quantitative tightening end a lot sooner last cycle than it did this cycle.
So, what if Bitcoin dominance goes up a lot between now and December 1st and then it ends up topping in December? I feel, I mean, like maybe that's got to be base case, right? Like, I mean, I don't know. I mean, I guess other things could theoretically play out, but if I were to stay true to the narrative, the rationale for like why it has made sense to be bullish on Bitcoin dominance, I feel like the rationale for it is starting to fade, but not yet, right? Like not yet. Like we still have four more weeks and four more weeks is a long time. In fact, in 2019, when Bitcoin dominance was at this level, it was at, when it was at 60.7% on June 17th, by, in one month later, one month later, it had gone to 69 and a half percent in one month. So, when dominance moves, it can really move. Like, I mean, it can really move quickly. It does not wait around. You guys saw it just a few weeks ago when it had that wick and I told you guys like a lot of these wicks often get filled. I mean, like a lot of times when you see a wick, you'll get sort of like a short-term pullback and then it'll just go back up and take it out, kind of like we've seen all cycle long. And so, you could argue that where we are right now is kind of like the same thing as over here. And we're just sort of building ourselves back up to that wick. We might even go a little bit higher and then you might see Bitcoin dominance top around the time that quantitative tightening ends. That does not mean that dominance can't sweep above that high a year or two later. It absolutely could. And that's what happened in that cycle, right? Dominance topped in September 2019 and then a couple years later or a year and a half later, it, it went above that high in, you know, doing quantitative easing. Um, I mean, so that's that's something definitely to to keep in mind.
I think that, you know, I, I, so, so going back to like Ethereum and whatnot, like when when ETH/Bitcoin hit those lows, it got a big bounce regardless of whether it made sense or not, right? Like regardless of whether it made sense to you or not. I mean, everyone was screaming that Ethereum was dead back at $1,300. But regardless of whether it made sense or not, it rallied a lot after that. And so, like, I mean, I do wonder if we go into this process where all Bitcoin pairs, if they do truly hit that final target that we've been talking about since like 2021, the base case has got to be they get a rally off of that level, right? Right? Like when it happens, the the hard part is that like, are they rallying just because Bitcoin's dumping faster than the altcoin market is? Because that's what happened in 2019, right? Like that's actually that's what happened.
The great thing about it right now, and I, I've been saying this for weeks, is like you don't actually have to guess, right? I mean, like, you can, you can just elect to stay out of the altcoin market and know that the only way you're going to see a durable rally by all Bitcoin pairs is if Bitcoin goes to new all-time highs. Because if Bitcoin does not go to new all-time highs and the cycle top is already in, there's not really a great reason to be buying and holding altcoins, right? I mean, I think that logic makes sense because every single time, like every single time this cycle that we've had a low around the 50-week moving average, every single time. And as Bitcoin found support and then went up to a new all-time high, during the process of going to a new all-time high, Bitcoin dominance went up a lot. Right? So, look at, look at 2024 and then look at 2025. So, when Bitcoin was at the 50-week moving average in 2024, Bitcoin dominance was at like 57%. And then Bitcoin rallied up and put in a new cycle high. And by the time it did that, Bitcoin dominance had gone from 57% to over 60%. I believe it actually hit 61%. And then in 2025, Bitcoin was at the 50-week moving average. And when it was, Bitcoin dominance was at 63%. And then by the time that Bitcoin rallied up to a new all-time high, Bitcoin dominance had gone to 65%. Right? So, it had gone up another couple percent.
So, my argument here is that if the top is not in, then Bitcoin would lead the way and then Bitcoin dominance would go up right during that process. But if the top is in, then Bitcoin is just going to suck liquidity from the altcoin market for as long as it can to try to stay above 100K. And then once altcoin liquidity has collapsed to 25%, 0.25, 25, then Bitcoin will will durably drop below 100K itself, just like it did in 2019 when it dropped below 10K. Now, eventually we took 10K out and we went up 10 times higher than that, but it took time, right? Like it took time. So, I mean, the point that I'm trying to make, and I, I've said this for years, right? Like this is not like a November 2025 thing. The point that I've made is that there has not really been a great reason to to get super bullish on altcoin pairs this entire cycle because like this entire cycle has been has been accompanied by quantitative tightening, by high interest rates, by lack of social interest in the crypto market. And all of that has just kind of led to a Bitcoin maxi cycle, right? Like, I mean, it has, whether you're a Bitcoin maxi or not, like you cannot deny that Bitcoin has given better gains than most, but not your altcoins. So, I mean, that's kind of where I am right now, right? Like, I mean, if, if Bitcoin starts getting these weekly, if it starts going below 100K and spending time there and not getting back above 100K, you know, it might be worth biting the bullet and just being like, "All right, well, we're just setting up for the 2026 bear market."
I would say in the absolute best-case scenario for the cycle, you know, you could see liquidity go back again and you see another sort of rally. But at this point, I don't think that rally would happen until after the death cross because we're already too close for it to feel like it's not going to happen. You know, I mean, we've had like, you know, this is this will be the fourth one where in 2023 we had a death cross. In 2024, we had a death cross. In 2025, we had a death cross. And I told you guys earlier back in 2025, I said we'll likely have two death crosses this year. And we're getting pretty close, right? We're getting pretty close to having another one. And I mean, you could even argue that Bitcoin is kind of repeating some of these patterns that it has previously where it just kind of continues to put in slightly lower lows. Um, I mean, I'm sure some people have been aware of this pattern, this cycle where it, you know, kind of goes into these downtrends where it just puts in these like slightly lower lows for a while and then everyone like loses interest. Um, but when you look at it, when you look at it, you can see that usually like the final low before a rally is when the death cross occurs, right? And and so that doesn't always happen. Like there are times in history where Bitcoin just dumps through a death cross. So, I'm not trying to suggest that like this is a 100% hit rate because it's not. But this cycle, we've seen Bitcoin put in local lows on death crosses, right? And so, even, and in 2019, even when the top was in, Bitcoin still rallied into the death cross, right? Like it had a low on the death cross and then it rallied and it put in another lower high. This cycle, we're putting in higher highs, right? So, like, I'm not trying to suggest that it's impossible for a higher high. It's possible. Maybe if you add in all the ETF liquidity and everything else, that's how it could happen. But you can see that even in 2019, when the high was in, you still kind of had that rally into the death cross. Sorry, a dump into the death cross and then a rally on the other side of it. So, like, I mean, while there certainly could be another rally, my guess is that, you know, the market is also kind of aware of this death cross here. And I don't, I mean, I don't know exactly when it's going to occur, but I mean, if I were to guess, I would say by mid-November. I mean, it, it could correspond approximately to when the government shutdown is over. And I don't know when that's going to happen. Uh, but the prediction markets have it at like mid-November, I think.
And this is one of the things, I mean, I think for a while, like politicians in general have been able to ignore it and they're like, both sides are kind of holding out wanting to get their way. And guys, this is not a politics channel, so if you want to get into that, take it somewhere else. We're just talking objectively, right? Both political parties want to get their way and they both feel like their constituents are backing them up, and they have been, right? And they have been because their constituents don't want them to back down. They want them to fight. But based on historical data, the longer the government shutdown goes on, like the longer the government shutdown goes on for, the constituents of both political parties will start blaming their own political party. Okay? So, then both political parties start getting blamed. Not one, not the other, right? It's not just, it's this guy's fault or that guy's fault. Both political parties will eventually start to be blamed. And when that happens, they'll be more incentivized to come to a solution. If you want my opinion, I think Congress, I think congressional salaries should be suspended during government shutdowns. Right? If, if a lot of furloughed employees are not getting paid and a lot of government employees are not getting paid, then I don't think it makes sense to make special provisions for the people in charge and the people that are kind of making the shutdown happen in the first place, right? I think they would be more incentivized to end the shutdown if it actually negatively affected them. And so, when their constituents start to get louder and say, "Hey, you can't keep doing this. You have to come to a solution," that's when it starts to negatively affect them. But if they were already not receiving their salary, then it would have been already affecting them for the last month and maybe they would have already come up with a solution. I think the whole premise of government shutdowns is completely absurd and there's not, you know, it doesn't really seem like it makes a whole lot of sense to me. The debt ceiling is is something that doesn't really make a whole lot of sense to me either, right? Like none of it really makes sense the more you think about it because every debt ceiling we eventually hit. Like, they might as well rename it debt target because there's never been a ceiling that was put in that we didn't eventually hit. So, it, it's something that like we, we're making problems that don't actually need to exist, right? That's that's all it is. We're just creating problems that don't need to exist and then other people are suffering because of it.
So, you likely will see a death cross coming up. Uh, I mean, honestly, like I would have said mid to late November, but given this price action, it's going to accelerate when the death cross occurs because I mean, Bitcoin's down 5% today and it was down 4% yesterday. So, you will see a death cross probably, I mean, maybe within, maybe within the next 10 days even. Like, it's, it's going to happen relatively soon with this negative price action because you're, you're basically replacing, you know, if you go back 50 days, you're replacing prices of 115K with 101K. And so, that 50-day moving average is going to start to aggressively come down. Um, unfortunately, I don't have a, I don't have a whole lot of more time, uh, to stream right now, although I, I'd like to. Um, my, my.
So, I'll just leave it to this. I'll just leave it this and I'll just be kind of upfront about things. Um, there is a chance the top is in, right? Like, there absolutely is a chance from a time-based perspective. It has to be something that you are aware of. And if the top is in, then the low is likely going to be next October. I would say it's a coin flip, right? I, you know, in October, I said there's a 40% chance that the October high was the high, but the further we go into November, those odds have to obviously increase. Right now, I would say it's kind of a coin flip. You know, I mean, even in the case though, if there is another rally, like it's going to mainly be the blue chips that move, and that's mainly Bitcoin. You might see Ethereum get a bounce. I hope it does, but it would mainly be the higher market cap coins because you need to see, in my opinion, you need to see alts drop against Bitcoin. That's, I think that needs to happen. So, if there is a rally, I think it's got to happen while altcoins don't really participate, at least not until they hit 0.25. And alt season, by the way, does not happen the middle alts hit 0.25. 0.25, 25 is just a necessary but not sufficient condition, right? I mean, it is. All Bitcoin pairs.
hit 0.25 in September 2019, and we didn't have all season until a year and a half later, right? And that's when they really went up.
It's a, I mean, obviously, this time's a little bit trickier because we're now flirting with the end of the cycle. By the way, even if you look at total 2 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin, what's really crazy is that total 2 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin actually went all the way down to 0.04 by early December, and currently it's at 0.56. You know, I mean, who's to say you you're not just going to watch total 2 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin come back, come back down here by the beginning of December and then bounce from there? So again, like we're in a tricky position.
Bitcoin is at a lot of like major levels that it absolutely needs to hold for the integrity of the bull market to continue. And it's already starting to break down on some time frames, if we're being honest. I mean, we already need to repair several things. Like Bitcoin's got to get back above the 50-week moving average. Um, you know, there there's a lot of things that that arguably need to happen for there to to be really hope for another move.
Um, my thought process is is is as I said, right? I mean, I I I think that for now, Bitcoin is going to try to take liquidity from altcoins to try to stay elevated above 100K, just like it did in 2019 when it was staying above 10K. But as altcoins go lower and lower and lower, the opportunity for Bitcoin to get bounces will diminish until we get into full-blown lower, much, much lower rates and and and printing. And that doesn't really seem like it's a short-term outcome. It probably will be an outcome, you know, maybe after the chair, you know, after Jerome Powell is replaced by a more dovish Fed chair, but it doesn't really seem like an outcome to expect in the short term.
So, Ethereum, let me just take a quick look here. Yeah, I mean, Ethereum, I it is still it's tough because, you know, it did go to new all-time highs. If it's going to follow the butterfly harmonic, I wouldn't expect 49 to be high enough. You know, I mean, I'm not saying it can't be the high, but I wouldn't expect it to be high enough. Like there are definitely times where Ethereum has gone through this process where it just kind of like works its way down and then something happens and it just goes right back up. Um, you know, we saw that happen a number of times, but I do believe that in 2026 Ethereum will return to its lower regression band. The only question is, is does it have one more move left in it?
One thing I did mention before is with Solana, when Solana went to, you know, sort of these all-time highs, it got rejected. It came down and then basically wicked down to its 50-week moving average and then somehow went back up and put on a new all-time high. So I guess that's your silver lining for Ethereum is that it's kind of approaching the 50-week moving average after approaching sort of after sweeping that high, kind of like Solana did. Maybe that's your silver lining. I'm not trying to give you guys hopeium. I mean, like I bought Ethereum back at $1,400 back in April. I did skim some off the top up there, but I still have a majority of the Ethereum position that I bought back then at $1,400. So, I'm just trying to be open and honest with you guys about what I'm looking at in the market, like is there any hope? Is there not? And just trying to look at at different levels that that I'm I'm trying to gauge like whether whether there's something left or not.
Um, but unfortunately, I mean, I do need to get. Wow, I did not realize we had 17,000 people watching. Um, I do appreciate you guys watching. Hope you enjoyed it. I know these times are tough. Uh, guys, in the worst-case scenario, if 2026 ends up being a bear market, which is what I believe, but if if the top is already in, then your your best bet is to is to build character uh for 6 to 12 months and then we'll come back and near the end of 2026 and do this all over again. Um, we'll see what happens. We'll see what happens.
Uh, right now the 50-week is at 103, a little below 103, like right around 103K. So, you know, right now Bitcoin's below that. We'd like to see Bitcoin get above that before weekly closes uh to sort of remain somewhat open-minded about about there being another move. But if not, then it might just be time to smell the roses and wake up to to what the cycle is is telling us.
Either way, no matter what happens, we should see dominance go higher. That's at least consolation prize. That's like the one thing I feel like we can look at now and and be somewhat confident that it's likely going to go higher. And I think it will break through its 50-week moving average here. Um, you know, I think it will break through kind of like it did right here in 2020. Um, break through, maybe come back down and then go back up. Maybe some, maybe that's already what it did. Like maybe this is sort of the breaking through, going back down, and then maybe it's about to just go up into the top before quantitative tightening comes to an end.
So, you know, hopefully I can come back to you guys in a few in a in a day or two and maybe Bitcoin's doing a little bit better. But, uh, if not, you guys know the levels to watch and and what sort of starts to make it look like if it's more like 2019 or if it's starting to deviate. The monetary policy view has obviously kind of taken precedence uh for the last year or so. Um, doesn't mean the cyclical view can't come in handy again. Uh, but we'll wrap it up there. Thank you guys for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe. Give the video a thumbs up if you guys like the content. Uh, give the video a thumbs down if you don't like the content. Uh, but make sure you subscribe. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.