สงครามโลกครั้งที่ 3 จุดจบของโลกเก่า และการรีเซ็ตใหญ่ในรอบ 120 ปี (ทวีสุข ธรรมศักดิ์)

World War III is taking shape and has already spread across the globe at this moment. No one benefits from war. Yes, war is trade, and trade is war. It will be similar to events about 120 years ago. The winner is the one who dictates the new history. After that, we will see that China will be surrounded by internal problems, a ring of fire in a war version. What's important is that it's not just fought on the battlefield; people within countries are made to fight each other. You, Gita, will see that when there was a meeting in China, it was a significant, symbolic launch. That was a picture that said they were ready for war, both economically and violently. The boiling point in 2026, what are your concerns, Professor? Japan will open up to Korea. Where does the condition look the most severe? The fuse has already been lit. France might enter a state of bankruptcy and could drag Germany down with it. The second factor in this Gita is frightening: the Fed losing control of the bond market. The commercial real estate sector, Professor. If we compare the level of severity, is it equivalent to a subprime crisis? If we combine these two, Commercial Real Estate and Private Credit, with a value of approximately 1.1 trillion, it would be about 5 times larger than subprime. We heard you mention the bond market. Has that situation occurred yet, Professor? It has clearly happened now, and this is a very dangerous signal that shows the Fed has lost control of interest rates. But this year it has risen by over 60 percent. Is it just the beginning? 5,000-1,000 will definitely happen. We don't know what the price of gold per baht will be, but I'll start with 85,000 baht per baht. Today, I must say this: the war that we have heard about since 2019 is over. 2025-2026 will be our most difficult period. Let's put it this way: if our financial institutions can remain strong during these two years, we won't be too bad off. If you say this is the most severe crisis in over 100 years, then it is also a great opportunity of 100 years. It's also a 100-year cycle. We don't look at it as survival. You, Gita, must look at how we will win this game. Professor Thaweesuk, hello. Hello. Thank you very much for honoring Bus Tomorrow and The Next again. It's been almost a year since we last met. Back then, we discussed the economic outlook and the global system in 2025. Today, we are closing out 2025. I would like to ask the Professor to analyze and interpret the global situation in 2026. But before we get to 2026, 2025 is a year where we have faced shocks in almost every aspect, both globally and domestically in Thailand. We have the risk of war occurring in our border areas. We see wars in many battlefields around the world, and they have not completely ended, both in the Middle East and in the Russia-Ukraine region. There are events in Pakistan and many other conflict points. We have trade wars that the US has initiated with the world, especially with China. We have technology wars where they compete to be leaders in technology, chips, and rare earth minerals. We have severe natural disasters globally, including earthquakes and floods in Thailand, and the world is experiencing much abnormality. The stock market and capital markets are volatile. Gold surged to an all-time high, then fell into a bear market in just a few months. It has been an extremely turbulent year, Professor. Has it gone as expected, or are there things that have exceeded your analysis? Everything has just begun. We have just entered an era of asset volatility. However, in terms of the real economy, we have been facing it since COVID, with issues of financial liquidity. This will be a major problem for the current system. But in terms of financial assets and uncertainty, all these issues are actually the same thing. Uncertainty, and they are all interconnected. Uh-huh. What is the root cause of this volatility, Professor? It will be similar to events about 100-120 years ago, when the world was redesigning a new system. This redesign of a new system can be called system architecture, which encompasses technology, economic crises, and wars, in order to enter a new world order. Because the economic system designed in 1900, up until 1945, led us to the New World Order where the United States has been the dominant power for 80 years. Therefore, we are all accustomed to the United States being the world leader. But now, this is the point where there will be new challenges to the world system to design a new world order again, in a post-technology world, which we are entering the quantum era. A new world order change in about 120 years. 120 years. This means that the announcement of the Industrial Revolution has been ongoing since 2015, before COVID. After that, we fully entered the digital era. And after that, we will enter an era of volatility in many aspects. Therefore, when entering a new world order, there must be a struggle between the old powers and the consolidation or rise of a single power. So, what we are facing now is a period of considerable uncertainty, especially regarding the economy. Currently, everyone might think that the stock market is still at an all-time high, so how can an economic crisis occur? If we look, Gita, you will see that the US stock market has indeed reached an all-time high, both Nasdaq and S&P 500. But I will use the large companies in the S&P 500 as an example. We have what are called the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, but in reality, there are about 15 companies related to chips and other things within the S&P 500 that are leading the rise. But for the other approximately 485 companies, they have not grown, and some, especially in the real sector, have even hit all-time lows, such as Home Depot and others. Therefore, at this point, we can say that the real sector in the world is like a zombie corporation, like companies that don't grow but don't die. However, the money in the world is flowing into only a few stocks, so their market capitalization is exceptionally large. So, seeing the all-time high market, we cannot conclude that this is... A bright atmosphere for the entire market and that everything is going well, but it is just the tip of the iceberg. That would be both correct and incorrect. It's correct in that we cannot look at that alone. But if it's completely incorrect, it's because it's another group. We are in an era of major industrial transformation. Therefore, the question of whether companies that are not growing might not be in the global industry trend going forward. They will become zombie companies, and new companies will emerge to replace them. You, Gita, will see companies like OpenAI, right? OpenAI has not even IPO'd yet, but its market capitalization has risen to over 500 billion, which is enormous. These are companies in the new technology trend. Currently, there are hundreds of such startups in the world, both in China and in America, that are about to emerge, and we may not have even heard their names yet. Therefore, it's not that the economy is bad overall, but there will be changes in industry cycles entering an era of industrial transformation, and this is where these events occur. And the fact that money is pouring into technology businesses and this group, will they be... The new rising stars of the world? Will they save the global economy, Professor? It depends. Currently, the companies that are receiving investment are those that are the foundation of the AI system. However, companies that utilize the foundation of AI for business have not yet emerged, or have not emerged much, or are still in their infancy. Therefore, if you ask if they will be a leading force to drive the new world, the technology is moving forward. You, Gita, hear that the world says AI is a bubble, right? But I see AI stocks as simply overpriced because people are expecting it to be a bubble, which is not the case. However, for the economy to move forward, it will be in another area: the financial system, the banking system, the money printing system of the world, which is currently stumbling. It is stumbling in many areas. Therefore, if an AI company's bubble bursts, I think at most, stock prices will fall. When stock prices fall, do we call it a bubble bursting? We can call it a correction, right? But for a bubble to truly burst, I don't think there will be a bubble that bursts. But there will be companies that will disappear, and there will be effects that impact financial institutions that are about to occur. Uh-huh. So, the main point you are focusing on is the liquidity of financial institutions, the banking system, the bank system, more than anything else? Yes, because it will be linked to the need to print money, and what the world is very concerned about is the increasing debt, right? Along with rising interest rates. There are quite a lot of details here, as in each part of the world, they will face similar but not identical problems in the details. So, if we go into each point, the most concerning pillar of the economy is the liquidity of the banking system or... The central banks of the world, which you call the money printers, where are they stumbling? Where are the most severe conditions? I would point to Europe. Currently, we might see the second-largest economy in Europe, France, potentially entering a state of bankruptcy and possibly dragging Germany down with it. You, Gita, will see that Germany has had no economic growth since the Russia-Ukraine war, right? The executives of German industry spoke with the Prime Minister and asked whether to choose Ukraine or German industry. It turned out they chose Ukraine. Therefore, all German industries have high costs. Currently, gas and energy costs in Europe have risen by 40% since the war, which is a very high cost. And food prices and other prices have increased. But the thing that is the fuse that has already been lit is France. I think that soon, France, which has had a systemic problem since 1945, when the Prime Minister at that time amended the law. At that time, there was competition between democracy and communism. In France itself, there are quite a lot of groups that like communism and authoritarianism. So, the leader at that time used a method of combining communist theory and capitalist democracy. This led to the formation of labor unions and other things. In France, labor unions, Gita, are structured in such a way that once you join a company, you have no right to fire employees. For example, a typical restaurant. There will be an employee who... Scolds customers with a bad attitude, damages things. But the owner calculates that if they fire the person, they will be sued for high damages. This causes problems for the French system. And the pension system, which is a major issue right now. When the system was designed, 4 French people supported 1 elderly person through tax collection. Yes. But now, 1.7 French people support 1 elderly person, and this trend is likely to increase. That is why they are postponing the retirement age from 62 to 64, which is a big issue because the French people say they have lived their whole lives. Their work is only 35 hours per week, which is already the lowest in the world. Therefore, France itself is becoming a major problem that cannot be solved internally. I think within 1, 2, or 3 years, France may have to seek help from the IMF. And I think the solution for France is for the IMF to do what it did in Thailand, which is to change all French laws, or else you will have no money, and a crisis will occur among the people, leading to protests, civil war, or what happened in France in 2023. The past year, where garbage filled the streets of France, and labor unions went on strike. This will be a major problem that cannot be easily solved in Europe, both in France, Germany, and including the UK. This is what we see in Europe that is concerning. And another thing I am very worried about, Gita, is the United States. There is something hidden within the system. I must use the term "infrastructure of the system" to describe it. It has cracks, and there are still concrete slabs covering them. Yes. If we look at it this way, we will see clearly. There is one issue that I don't see much news about, Gita, which is Commercial Real Estate, or CRE. Currently, CRE is more of a highlight than the Tech Bubble that people are looking at. CRE is about to face a situation that will cause regional banks in the United States to be at risk of bankruptcy, similar to Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic. And what is happening here will be linked to Private Credit. We are looking at this now. I have heard warnings about private credit this year, Professor. I saw the CEO of JP Morgan Chase issue a warning at the beginning of the year, and I saw Goldman Sachs say they are watching this as a major catalyst for next year. But no one has delved into the extent of the damage or the level of risk. Can you explain to us what the problem with private credit is, how severe it will be, and whether it could explode into a subprime crisis like in 2008, Professor? Private credit is linked to CRE, or Commercial Real Estate. These two years will be a measure. I'll tell you why these two years: 5 years ago, when the pandemic occurred, loans were issued to develop what are called various "malls." In the United States, they are built as small malls, with restaurants, convenience stores, and other things within them. Loans were issued for this, and new office buildings were constructed. But the problem is that after COVID, the work-from-home trend has caused a problem of vacant space. This has increased, and it has also caused department stores, which are Commercial Real Estate, to sell poorly. The problem here, Gita, is that when the loans were issued last time, the contract was for 5 years. Yes. And the interest rate for the 5-year contract was 2.5-3%. But after this, it will be a "maturity war," meaning the contracts will expire and need to be renewed in 2026 and 2027. The total value that needs to be refinanced is 1.88 trillion dollars. The first issue is that this refinancing will have to be done from an interest rate of 2.5-3% to an interest rate of 6-9%. Yes. First, the second is the problem of vacancies and office buildings, whether in New York, Florida, or elsewhere. Prices have fallen by about 40-60%. Commercial real estate is different from houses. Houses, if you don't live in them, you can renovate them. But office buildings have expenses, taxes, maintenance costs, and upkeep. This will be a significant cash burn. If the occupancy rate doesn't reach a certain point, the value of the property will fall. This raises the question of whether banks will refinance at 100% or at 60-40% of the asset value. Therefore, if banks refinance at 40-60%, it means the owner or operator who borrowed from the bank will have to find additional cash, which they cannot find. This is more complicated, Gita. Yes. Because after the subprime problem occurred, major banks in America, the 24 banks that traded coffee futures, which had problems, stopped lending to real estate. So, they went to regional banks. Various regional banks, which are local, smaller banks. But when we borrow to do this, Gita, we need to put in a portion as equity or shares. Now, the majority of the equity portion will be loans, not actual shares. For example, if I, Tu Wisuk, have 40 baht to invest as shares and borrow another 60 baht from the bank, it's not like that. Structurally, you will borrow... And then borrow from private credit. Borrow from private credit. And the lending standards are not as strict as normal lending. Not strict, yes. So, they go to borrow from private credit, which we will discuss later. Now, Gita, imagine this: if you borrow 100%, and 40% is private credit to cover equity, and the remaining 60% is borrowed from the bank. Yes. If the price falls by 40%, it means the equity money is burned away before your eyes. The book value. The question is, what will happen to the private credit that was borrowed? As for the bank loan, the question is, for the 60% that they lent out at 100%, it turns out that this 100% might only be worth 40-60%. This means there will be a loss. So, what will happen to the local banking system? Now, going back to the local banking system, the CRE that has problems has a value of approximately 1.88 trillion. How many banks are there? 1,480 banks are currently facing this problem. Yes. And the banks at risk are approximately 580 banks. You, Gita, might wake up one morning and report that 50 local American banks have gone bankrupt simultaneously, like First Republic or Silicon Valley Bank, and there were only 2 days to resolve the problem. But this will happen. And what is even more hidden than that, Gita? All banks, when they receive deposits, for example, if you, Gita, deposit money in a bank, if they don't lend it out, the bank will buy US bonds to keep. Now, as interest rates rise, the US bonds they hold become a loss. Yes. That is one reason why the Fed has to lower interest rates. This interest rate cut by the Fed is the most dangerous. Therefore, banks have amended the law. Bill Gross once said that if you keep interest rates at 0% for a long time, when interest rates rise, it will explode like a nova. So, they pulled the pin on the bomb by amending the law. Yes. That the bonds they hold, even if they are negative, will not be marked to market. They will not use mark-to-market, but rather the exposure price. Yes. If people don't rush to withdraw, there will be no problem. But if people rush to withdraw, like First Republic, like Silicon Valley Bank, then it is at risk of bankruptcy within just one day. Therefore, there are currently 1,480 banks in America facing these two problems, and the financial value is quite high, which will also link to private credit. So, during the First Republic and Silicon Valley Bank periods, the world was very alarmed, Professor. All these over a thousand banks with problems, and over 500 of them, are also linked to private credit. Now, let's move on to private credit, Professor. How concerning is this area that you are worried about? And as I mentioned, Jamie Dimon is also watching this area. Private credit is like shadow banking. It's like you, Gita, buying bonds, buying funds, and then issuing private credit funds. Sometimes there are news reports, Gita, about... BlackRock is about to go bankrupt from private credit. Don't believe these reports. Because private credit funds are just one fund among thousands of funds in BlackRock. Private credit is only one in a thousand. Therefore, it's not something that will cause BlackRock to go bankrupt. But the one who has a problem is that Blackstone borrowed from this private credit, and Blackstone will not be able to repay it. Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, O1, those involved in private equity, companies that are not yet listed on the stock exchange, and are preparing to go public. There is a case, like the case of Toys "R" Us. Blackstone, KKR, they took over because Toys "R" Us was about to go bankrupt. It turned out there was a debt of about a billion dollars. After they took over, they injected capital and restructured. It turned out the debt increased to 4 billion dollars. Suddenly, the debt disappeared from the system, causing Toys "R" Us to enter bankruptcy again. But there was a situation where money disappeared from the system. In Thailand, there are many listed companies on the stock exchange that do similar things. Therefore, private credit funds are becoming funds where investors risk losing their money, but they cannot withdraw it immediately. Then there's the question of how it affects investors in private credit. These are 401(k) funds. Yes. Pension funds, right? And insurance companies. JP Morgan conducted a survey of over 480 insurance companies, and only 20 of them did not invest in private credit. Therefore, this money will also be lost. But, viewers, don't panic yet. Because insurance companies have 100 million, and they might invest only 3-5% in private credit, meaning not a very large amount. So, it's a supply chain where a portion of people's money will disappear from the private credit system. You ask if it's serious. I think it's serious, but not severe. It won't be as severe as CRE, which directly affects banks. So, the first wound is the Commercial Real Estate wound, Professor. If we compare the level of severity, is it equivalent to subprime, or is it more severe, or less severe? If we combine these two, Commercial Real Estate and Private Credit, with a value of approximately 1.1 trillion, it would be about 5 times larger than subprime. But unlike subprime, subprime had problems with CDOs and derivatives, which were not legally supported at that time for insurance. So, it became a transaction. But this time, it's about direct lending to financial institutions, and it's not heavily leveraged. But the problem is here, Gita. The Deposit Insurance Fund, or FDIC in the US, insures deposits for people in America. But the fund has only 0.5% of the current risk value. Yes. So, if we think about how they will solve this system, if they solve this problem, then the Fed might print money and inject it into this fund, and then support it, or let everything collapse, and then JP Morgan, Chase, or Bank of America will take over the assets. The picture will be like UBS taking over Credit Suisse, taking over assets. But in terms of the Fed's tools, Professor, they still have interest rates that they can lower, which is a frequently used trump card, or even QE, which is similar to what you mentioned earlier, printing money to inject liquidity. Yes. Can the Fed help, Professor? The Fed has been doing this for 3 months. The Fed has been injecting money into the system, which in total is higher than in 2019. In 2019, when interest rates rose, there was a liquidity shortage, right? So, the Fed injected money. Then they solved the liquidity problem by releasing the virus. And the world injected a large amount of money again during the pandemic. But the real problem is liquidity. Currently, the Fed is injecting liquidity into banks. Therefore, the interbank interest rate, the Fed Funds Rate, has risen significantly higher than the 10-year bond yield, many times. This is because there is no liquidity in the system. The Fed is injecting liquidity. And this year might be a challenging year for the US Treasury. In 2025... It's called a "refinancing war." The US debt is approximately 9 trillion dollars, which needs to be refinanced this year. Yes. As a result, it has led to events since September. Every Wednesday and Thursday, when US bonds are auctioned, the Treasury sells bonds, and the Treasury buys its own bonds. And during this period, there has been a lot of buying. For example, in some weeks, it reached 12 billion dollars per week, disturbing the system. This reflects whether the world is rejecting US bonds. But there was a period where this entire year was a "refinancing war," meaning a big year. But if this problem continues in January, it will become a reality that the world no longer wants US bonds. Therefore, what the Fed should not do this month is lower interest rates. The Fed should only lower interest rates twice. Lower interest rates twice for technical reasons. The third time, it should not be lowered. The reason is that it will create two major wounds that are revealed to the world. First, the real economy is not moving. If we remove the seven stocks, we will see that stocks have not grown at all. The other 400-plus stocks, which represent the real economy, show that the economy is starting to stagnate. And the second liquidity injection, Gita, is frightening: the Fed has lost control of the bond market. We see 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year bonds falling as the Fed indicated, but 10-year and 30-year bonds have reached all-time highs, which is the same behavior as Japan. But Japan is raising interest rates. Yes. This is a situation where three central banks in the world cannot control the bond market: the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. Japan's situation is that bonds are leading, prompting the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates accordingly. The loss of control over interest rates, Professor, what does it mean that the market sees something, and what risks does it lead to? Even if they lower interest rates, bond yields are still rising. It means that the Fed can no longer set interest rate policy because the market is reflecting that if you lower them, they won't buy, and they will even sell. Because lowering interest rates this time reduces the losses from the previous interest rate hikes. Therefore, we see that the Chinese central bank, and even Japan, are selling quite a lot. We heard you mention the "bond superpower" that will have major problems in the bond market if the market doesn't believe in issuing bonds. Has that situation occurred yet, Professor? Yes, it has clearly happened now. For the UK, it's been half a year. For the Fed, it's clearly visible this month that the Fed has lost control of interest rates. Especially, as everyone knows, the 10-year bond. While the Fed is lowering interest rates, the 10-year bond yield is rising. Yes. From 4% to 4.15-4.16%, which is contrary to all theories. This is a very dangerous signal that shows that interest rates in the market will lead the Fed to follow Japan's path. This will be a very dangerous signal because if the Fed has to reverse and raise interest rates again, it will cause banks to incur further losses from holding US bonds, linking to real estate and mortgage-backed securities, which are bonds for real estate lending. Currently, the yield is around 6%. Therefore, all of this is interconnected, especially the US real estate market, with an estimated damage value of 1.88 trillion. And the bond market situation, which is signaling that the market is leading, and the superpower is showing symptoms and can no longer control it, what crisis will this lead to, Professor? If interest rates rise, it will cause all holders of US bonds with maturities over 1 year worldwide to incur losses. For example, our country says we hold 300 billion dollars in US bonds. I ask, is that the price that came in? But what is the value today, 300 billion dollars? It might only be 220 billion dollars. It might have disappeared from mark-to-market pricing. Therefore, when interest rates rise, global assets become a time bomb. The price of bonds will adjust downwards, causing holders of bonds with maturities over 1 year to incur losses. And the longer the maturity, 10, 20, 30 years, the greater the loss. Therefore, what the Fed cannot control is the 30-year bond. This means everyone sees that America might have problems paying interest. Because this year is what is called the "refinancing war." All that has come from the subprime era, with interest rates at 0.25%, and then issuing 9 trillion dollars at an interest rate of 0.25%, on that base. But today, I estimate the base to be 3.5%, but it's actually around 4%. On average for the whole year, it's around 4%. The cost has increased, not by 4%. Increased fourfold. Increased fourfold. This is the risk in the banking system, which includes central banks and mutual funds. They will all incur losses if interest rates rise again. They are already incurring losses. So, the breaking point is both the bond market and interest rates that will lead to an economic crisis. This is what is happening in the money market and affecting the capital market. How will it reach the real economy, Professor? The real economy means everyone will face significantly high interest rates. And at the same time, money is not circulating in the economy. Therefore, this is why the Federal Reserve has to inject liquidity, even though it hasn't said it's printing QE yet, but it's injecting it every night, every day. Because it's night for us, right? So, this is a problem. The Fed cannot control liquidity, so it has to inject money. And the more it injects, the more the currency depreciates. And America's public debt has already exceeded the ceiling. This is a major problem for America's debt burden with new interest rates. This year, we must say, with all the new interest rates. Uh-huh. Liquidity crisis occurs. Crisis occurs in the bond market, capital market, and money market. America's debt pile is also being closely watched. This year, it's 37 trillion, specifically public debt. The issue of debt resolution is being discussed a lot, Professor. America cannot continue like this. They must have a debt resolution formula. Some people talk about revaluing gold. Some formulas suggest they have the idea of collecting crypto. They might use Bitcoin to reset the system. To cause a debt write-off is possible. Or even, in the worst case, default on the debt. As a superpower, Professor, will America find a way out of its debt cycle? Which point should I address first? Let's address the point that there is no way out of the debt cycle, and the world cannot get out of the debt cycle either. It will have to create new debt and continue indefinitely, unless there is a default and a system reset. This might be possible in France. Currently, there might have to be a default or something. But in America, a default would be a major problem. It would be worse than the bond market acting as a superpower. Therefore, there are some theories in America. Have you heard of Executive Order 6102? It was used in the past. Yes. In the past, there was an event where President Roosevelt announced that if Americans held gold, it would be considered unpatriotic. And they would be imprisoned for 10 years. Everyone had to sell it to America at approximately $20.67 per ounce. At that time, everyone had only one month to sell it. Yes. And it turned out that after everyone sold it to the Fed, 8 months later, the price of gold increased from about $20.67 to $35. Yes. That was a devaluation. Now, with the same theory, America's major weapon is its gold reserves of 8,500 tons, right? Currently, it has risen. I think it will reach 5,000 soon. If it reaches 5,000, it means the value of gold will be collateral for America's debt at 5%. Now, there are dark side ideas, from the doomsayers, who say... Yes. Take Jim Rickards first. He says that if the price of gold that can guarantee America's debt is around $10,000 per ounce. Yes. $10,000 per ounce would be equivalent to 10% of the collateral value, like futures. If anyone trades futures or options, they will see that it requires about 10-5% collateral. So, when the price of gold rises to $10,000, it will be equivalent to backing the gold price at 10%. But there is another theory that says, well, why not do what the Fed did? The price of gold that can guarantee debt is around 40%. That would be the best guarantee. So, the price of gold would have to rise to $40,000. The hidden question is, did they devalue the currency? Did they devalue their currency? Yes. Did they devalue it? They didn't announce it. But they did. They just said the price of gold increased. Yes. This is how the system is disguised. We have to go back and ask whether the price of gold has increased or the currency has depreciated. Right? If we understand that, as we've discussed frequently, gold was at 20,000-30,000, and now it's over 60,000. The question is, has gold become more expensive, or has the currency depreciated? Some people will tease me and say, "I don't see the currency depreciating." But when we look at gold, we see that gold has risen very high compared to the currency, right? Therefore, if America does that, everyone will be shocked. So, did they devalue the currency? Hey, they didn't devalue the currency, they raised the price of gold. Anyone who has gold will be happy. But the problem is, what will be the consequences afterward? It might be divided into three scenarios. First, it's very good. Hey, everything is happy because America's debt is backed by gold. This will improve the debt of the country, the debt of the states, because the federal debt is backing it. The debt of private companies in America will also improve. Then the stock market will boom because new debt can be issued, as there is collateral. This is a very good scenario, the best case. No more problems. No more problems, it's over. They didn't devalue the currency either, they just raised the price of gold. Compared to gold. And also, anyone who has gold is considered to possess an asset of higher value. Yes. Yes. And the second scenario is that nothing happens. People are still confused. So, has the currency depreciated, or will everything continue as before? But if it's the worst case, then everything related to the dollar will collapse immediately. For example, there will be inflation caused by currency depreciation, and food prices and other things will increase. But at the same time, the stock market might crash. This is a terrible scenario. So, it cannot be predicted. But this is what the doomsayers are predicting: "Oh, so let's adjust the price of gold." But you asked earlier if there's something darker. What about Bitcoin? Yes, Bitcoin to reset US debt. The problem with Bitcoin is different from gold, Gita. Gold is legally recognized as a store of value, as strong as US bonds, as cash, and so on. Yes. Because it has legal recognition, it leads to the view that the price of gold should be increased to back the debt. But crypto has two problems. First, it is not yet a store of value, so it has no legal support. Whatever we do, there must be legal support. So, if Bitcoin becomes a store of value, there will be no problem. It means the whole world has legal recognition that it is a cash equivalent and as strong as US bonds, right? But this is not yet the case. Second, Bitcoin has a market capitalization of only 2 trillion. If we consider a price of $100,000 per Bitcoin, it's too small, Gita. I know many people in the world who, through connections, some of them have more than 2 trillion dollars, but they don't keep it in their names. They don't keep it like Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg, but they keep it through trusts, through other structures. There is another financial structure, which America also does. It's very small. So, if Bitcoin were to replace...

It's possible for it to become a currency, you know. It needs to have a market cap that's about 20 times larger than this. This isn't to say Bitcoin will go up 20 times. >> Yes. >> But I'm saying that if it's to replace that, it needs to have both 1 and 2. >> Okay. And another thing is it needs to equal the US debt, 40 trillion. >> Uh-huh. >> Right now, it's only 2 trillion. >> The laws haven't even supported it yet, and the market cap is still too small. >> Especially when compared to, uh, US debt, it's still 10-20 times different. >> Yes, this is one point. Regarding the other question about stablecoins, I don't know how they calculate it, but I look at Tether. Tether is about selling or exchanging dollars for it, right? Or selling other cryptocurrencies and converting them to Tether, which is like converting US dollars to this. >> Meaning Tether has to buy. >> Buy into it. Therefore, the Tether company that manages Tether will receive cash. >> Yes. >> $1 per 1 Tether. They will use the dollars they receive to buy US bonds. >> Uh-huh. >> Now, if stablecoins are to be printed, the question is, the problem lies with the Ministry of Finance. The Ministry of Finance wants to sell debt, Khun Guitar. So, where will Stablecoins get the money to buy US debt? >> Because they will have to buy US bonds anyway. >> Yes, and where will they get the money to buy bonds? >> They can't just use stablecoins to buy them because they want to win. But it's more than just changing the method, and there are many possibilities. But there must be conditions, as I said, like legal support. As long as the law doesn't support it, I don't think it can replace it. But I want to remind everyone that during crises, laws can be made overnight. And those who manage the system will amend the laws during that crisis to benefit them. So, anything can happen. I'm not saying it's impossible. >> It has happened many times in history, right? Like the Nixon Shock. They can issue laws to seize assets or grant asset powers. >> They can do anything, right? They can do everything. Like, uh, the Fed has done it. So, it's all for the benefit of those behind the scenes. >> But if we step back and look at what people are generally worried about, ultimately, won't it explode into a US debt crisis, Professor? Because there seem to be many ways out, and there might be ways we haven't even thought of, and superpowers might be able to use them immediately. >> Solutions must arise from a crisis. So that everyone accepts and there's a consensus. For example, a massive bank failure, like dominoes falling. Then laws must be amended at the time of the crisis. Therefore, there are ways out. For every issue, Khun Guitar, I always say that war ends before it begins. There's a conclusion to the war from the start. >> But it's just that during the process, what will the problem be like, and who will bear the damage and hardship? >> Yes, yes. So, there must be someone. Ultimately, the people of the world will pay the price for everything. >> And what picture do you see, Professor? Will it happen in 2026, or is it still a distant problem that we see and need to prepare for this year? >> With all the problems, Khun Guitar, they started in 2020. >> Yes. >> When we experienced a liquidity shortage in the system, to the point where liquidity was printed. But the problem is that printing liquidity is distorting the system. So, today, what's in this cycle is that we are paying the price for the system we fixed. That is, from 2020 to 2023, we solved problems by creating bigger problems. We created bigger problems. Therefore, before 2023, everyone in America, Europe, Thailand, etc., lent money massively. >> At low interest rates. Now that interest rates are higher, this is a big time bomb for businesses. That's why liquidity has dried up. And the Fed has to keep printing money all the time. >> So, will we see interest rate hikes in 2026, Professor? >> The best-case scenario is to stop cutting interest rates because they will try to prolong it as long as possible. But if the majority of regional banks explode during 2026, then it will be a problem, and they might have to hike interest rates suddenly because bank liquidity disappears. What I fear most is that it might go up to around 8-9%. >> 8-9% is going back to the period when we faced inflation, Professor? >> Yes, because as I said, the Fed shouldn't cut interest rates this time. So, when the Fed decides to cut, we will see a lot of division and uncertainty. >> Once they cut, it reveals two issues: they can't control bond yields, and they admit that the US economy is not doing well. >> And the real economic picture is being watched for two things, Professor. Inflation is still high, but >> The Fed says that in the future, it might gradually decrease, allowing them to cut interest rates. And another point is that many people in America are unemployed. The unemployment rate is high. Regarding hyperinflation and high unemployment, what problems do you see in America? >> In America, right now, for the general public, there are quite a few problems. It's a paycheck-to-paycheck situation for about 60-70% of the country. They still have to manage month-to-month. And unemployment isn't caused by AI; it's caused by companies cutting costs. >> Yes. >> And companies can't survive. Because, Khun Guitar, you see them threatening each other, saying AI will replace humans. >> I still see 80% of companies using Excel. When will they switch to AI? I'm still confused. So, the layoffs aren't related to AI. >> Not related. Not related. >> But liquidity is bad. >> Liquidity is bad, and they can't sell products, so they have to lay off people. And there will likely be more layoffs. This will lead to a condition called stagflation. Why are prices high? It's because of the tariffs Trump imposed. I think it's the most poorly disguised lie in the world. They raised trade tariffs. >> Yes. >> And said they would deal with competitors. But by raising tariffs, who pays the tariffs? It's the Americans, right? So, it's like a VAT tax. If our country collects 7%, then whether we have income or not, when we buy, we have to pay 7% VAT. This is a trade tariff on everything imported, which is almost everything. Nothing is produced in America. So, they collect 20% from Americans on all trade. For example, when I ate at a Thai restaurant last October, they said, "Wow, the costs are so high now that there's almost nothing left. I think we'll have to increase prices." But they just increased prices recently and have to do it again. People will suffer. Regular customers are starting to complain about why it's so expensive. But they can't not increase prices because the costs are very high. This is what Trump did by collecting tariffs and then lying to the world, saying, "Hey, I'm dealing with the enemy," when in reality, Americans are paying more, all at once. >> And is there a risk of hyperinflation occurring, Professor? >> I think we'll see stagflation first in the next two years. That is, prices are high, but money isn't circulating. This is already happening to some extent. And for the past two years, this definition has been in place. And the trade war that has haunted the world during 2025. Tariffs have caused chaos since April when Trump announced them. Until finally, they tried to negotiate with China. It seemed like a pause, but will the tariff war continue in 2026? And will it lead to the crisis the world fears, creating a Great Depression like in 1929, Professor? >> The issue of tariffs is less concerning than liquidity and interest rates. >> We have to say it like this. >> The foundation is crumbling. It depends on which part of the concrete that seals the house will crack first. >> Yes. >> So, when it cracks, the entire concrete will crack together. Because right now, there's no part of the world where the economy is growing, except Vietnam. And Vietnam can't support the world. This is what we need to see first. And another factor that will drag down global liquidity is Japan. This is where it will become another factor that reduces global liquidity. >> Japan, after undergoing restructuring with the "three arrows" policy, seems to have gradually increasing inflation, leading to interest rate hikes. And they say their economy is improving because of restructuring, even if GDP figures are negative. What are Japan's worrying symptoms, Professor? >> Japan's symptoms are related to financial institutions. We need to see this first: the Bank of Japan holds the most US bonds in the world. We haven't seen the year-end figures yet, but the Bank of Japan has a negative mark-to-market from holding US bonds. >> Yes. >> But it's offset by the Nikkei 225, which is stocks, being controlled by the Bank of Japan, meaning they print money to buy stocks. And the Japanese stock market has reached an all-time high. It should be a perfect match. But I haven't calculated whether it's a match yet. So, here, the Bank of Japan has two assets. But the problem lies with commercial banks and businesses in Japan. Because when interest rates rise from negative interest rates, Khun Guitar, from negative to 3%, the mark-to-market of Japanese bonds over the past 20 years has been negative. >> Yes. >> But they amended the law regarding mark-to-market pricing so that when prices rise, it won't cause banks to collapse. And I don't think Japanese people will panic and withdraw their money. >> Yes. So, in Japan right now, there's a crack here. But the question is, is it scarier when people panic and withdraw money? In Japan, this isn't a major problem yet, as the system can still be concealed. But what Japan has created as a problem for the world is that Japanese interest rates and US interest rates are equal. They are exactly the same. Before, Japanese interest rates were 0%. >> Yes. >> Uh, Khun Guitar, imagine this. >> It's simple: you go to a Japanese bank, borrow at 0%, and deposit it in America. >> A 10-year bond yields 2%. Suddenly, you get a 2% difference with no cost of funds, right? So, in Japan, this leads to what's called Yen carry trade. That is, borrowing money at no cost, converting it to dollars, converting it to euros, and then buying bonds or stocks in global stock markets, and so on. And then making profits from foreign exchange and other things. Therefore, this money will disappear because it has a cost, and a high cost at that. So, the money markets and capital markets that relied on Yen carry trade were worth about 12 trillion dollars. >> Yes. >> It disappeared in an instant. >> Uh, not only did it disappear, but people also fear the reversal of positions, called unwinding. They borrowed and invested, and now they might have to sell assets and return them. Is there a risk? Because we've seen a preview in early August 2024. >> That group, the first group who knew this would happen, sold off first. So, now, it's the group that is still stuck and hasn't sold yet. >> Or they are still happy, but they still see that the cost isn't too high yet, but it is high enough. But they still believe in capital gains. So, we can't assess the risk of this panic. Therefore, Japan has only one problem, which is the Yen carry trade. It has a large market cap and will affect global liquidity. >> This is another point to watch carefully. Finally, China, Professor? During the crisis since COVID, China's liquidity also helped the world. Today, China might not be as strong as before, but its GDP is still growing at 4-5%. How serious are China's economic problems, Professor? >> China is about to create new problems for the world, Khun Guitar. >> What is it? >> Today, young people are unemployed. What happens is, suppose you apply for a company and they offer 25,000 baht, you say, "It's okay, 20,000 or 15,000, I'll take it, as long as I have a job." >> Yes. >> Suddenly, what has never happened in this world is, uh, it has happened, but not in such a large system. Wages are falling. >> Yes. >> Wages are falling. This means labor costs in China are low. >> Yes. >> And Chinese products are already cheap. Therefore, there will be an export of cheap products worldwide. >> Yes. >> For example, today, let me give you a simple example. Our toilet paper, the best quality, is two-ply. Chinese toilet paper is three-ply. >> Yes. >> If you buy it on Shopee, it's only one baht, and it's better. The question is, in the real economy, what will consumers do? This is just one item, toilet paper. There are also many other consumer products being distributed worldwide, causing factories in each country to experience a severe drop in sales. This is the factor that will export this big problem. We will see an influx of cheap products. >> The second point, which has been discussed a lot and criticized China for, is real estate. The government has said since 2018 to manage it themselves, not to bail them out, because they want businessmen who overextended themselves to learn a lesson. But what the government has done is instruct four major Chinese banks—ICBC, BOC, ABC, and CCB—to reserve funds to support local banks in case they collapse from shadow banking and to buy assets. Because China is entering a digital currency system, local banks might become unnecessary. So, let them collapse and don't bail out real estate because there's too much real estate. Therefore, China is investing all its resources in the technology industry, which has higher margins. And they let others fail. But you'll see, Khun Guitar, they are gradually releasing companies. >> Yes. >> Last year, Evergrande, right? And this year, another one. >> So, companies are gradually failing, but it's manageable. But if Evergrande and 4-5 other companies, like China Resources, fail simultaneously this year, it will be unmanageable. >> But the real estate crisis isn't over yet, is it? >> It's being released gradually, and time will be the solution. But the four banks are ready to handle it, with increased reserves. >> Given that they have many wounds, including excessive exports, falling wages, and unresolved real estate problems, it's difficult to expect them to prop up the global economy, isn't it? >> They probably don't have the capacity to prop it up now. Because it's stopped. Khun Guitar, when real estate stops, it doesn't mean construction stops. It means the entire supply chain for construction stops. >> Everything stops. >> Everything stops. >> Just like in Thailand now, when real estate stops, everything stops. >> That's just the economic pillar, the first shock, the crisis the world needs to prepare for. There are many wounds. Now, let's move on to the major global trends, the megatrends. We see the world changing in terms of technology. This year, everyone is talking about AI. >> Yes. >> Even Time magazine named the creator of AI systems as Person of the Year and said it was the year AI showed its potential, clearly indicating it's a technology that's here to stay. In the technology pillar, Professor, there's fierce competition between America and China. Even within America, there are investments in the hundreds of billions, or even trillions. >> Yes. >> Are there hidden risks in the technology sector? Is there a war, a risk of problems or crises in this technological transformation, Professor? >> Today, I must say this: the chip war we've heard about since 2019. >> It's over. >> It's over? >> It's over. >> Between America and China? >> Yes. Because China announced itself last November that it has its own path. >> Therefore, today, the technology world is going its separate ways. We can no longer compare whether America is better than China or China is better than America. >> Because there will be better and worse aspects simultaneously. >> For example, Khun Guitar, it's simple: the highest-performance chipsets must go to the American side and their supply chain. >> Yes. >> But China says it's not necessary. They just need 7 nanometers and to make it commercial for smart city infrastructure. America doesn't need the absolute peak. They gradually distribute to companies, and that's why it's concentrated in only 7-8 companies. But China says no, they must build this technology to make it commercial. I'll quote Khun Khomsan Sae Lee. I had the opportunity to talk with Khun Khomsan. He said that the most advanced technology must go to America because they select talented people. But for commercial applications, it must go to China. And here, Khun Guitar, there's an interview with Khun Jensen Huang. >> Yes. >> And this is where we see today: China and America are going their separate ways. China says they are no longer following America's path and are creating their own. >> Which aligns with what Jensen Huang said: >> We have cut off China, the second-largest market in the world, a market with advanced technology and high development. This means that we, the American technology group, have no idea what China is doing. While they have been working with NVIDIA for 25 years, working with all AI companies worldwide, and they know where the trends are heading. But today, what's happening is they have no idea what China is doing. And this is the biggest mistake the US government made in March of this year. Khun Guitar, do you remember the meeting with Chinese leaders? >> They brought all the tech people to discuss in China, just like Trump did on his side. >> Yes. >> But there was a case where Mr. Lin from Huawei went to talk to President Xi Jinping and said that the chip problem has been resolved. This year, it will be alleviated, and in another two years, this problem will no longer exist, and we will be 100% self-sufficient. This is what happened in March, and everyone still couldn't visualize it. If you, Khun Guitar, listened to the news then, you still couldn't imagine it. So, let me break it down. Regarding chipsets, it's not yet clear news that we haven't seen Huawei's EUV machines. There are rumors that they can do it or something similar, based on patent applications for 3nm and 2nm. Once it's 2nm, it's almost equal to TSMC. But what is clearly visible, Khun Guitar, is that the chip architecture is different. For example, Huawei has the Ascend 9000. But, excuse me, the Ascend 910A. The latest one they released is the Ascend 9104, which is said to be about 70-80% comparable to Nvidia's A1 and H1. This is scary. >> Yes. >> Because they've used very little time, and they're using 7nm chips for this. But they say they will release the Ascend 910D chipset, which will have higher performance and might be comparable to the A200. So, this is what Jensen Huang said: we should sell to China. And there was a response from B saying, "We can sell, but add 25% for the government to collect taxes." >> Yes. >> But China retaliated, saying, "We don't need to buy unless you let us dissect it to see what's inside." This is the AI chip. Ultimately, companies like Baidu and others, many leaders, will use these chips 100%. And they say that today, 99.9999% can be produced in China. Next, Khun Guitar, the chip issue will be long. It's the Huawei Mate 60 mobile phone, made with 7nm chips. After that, it's like this: the Huawei Mate 60, which caused a sensation two years ago, Khun Guitar, is a satellite phone. >> Which Europe and America haven't been able to do yet. >> Yes. >> And when they took it apart, they couldn't replicate it. Then, the Huawei Mate 80 uses a 5nm chip and has better performance. I'm waiting to see when it will be released. And it's a satellite phone. >> It turns out that what Jensen Huang said is that China is accelerating the creation of its own ecosystem. So, how is it different, Khun Guitar? China is working with the government's satellite system. So, wherever you are in the world, you can connect. Recently, Kenya signed a contract with the Chinese government to use satellite phones. >> Yes. >> Without needing to set up an antenna. In Nigeria, they are setting up a 5G antenna system, investing about 60 billion dollars, and Kenya doesn't need to invest anything. Just sign a contract with China and buy Mate 60, 70, 80 to use, and you can use the phone in areas like Kenya's mountainous regions. And it works worldwide, and it works on airplanes. When we look at businesses in America. >> Yes. >> It's Apple and Android. But it turns out both Apple and Android don't have satellites. >> Uh, yes, signal. >> Elon Musk has satellites. >> But no phones. >> And can these two companies communicate and work together? This is the first point about technology. And most importantly, starting from the foundation. First, Khun Jensen Huang said that China started with the foundation. What he said in 2015 was that universities in China must be in the top 10 in every field. And for new programs, we must be in the top 5. Khun Jensen Huang said that currently, the top 10 best technology universities are in China, 9 of them. And engineers doing technology research, out of 100 people, 50 are Chinese. >> Half. >> Uh, not including those who will be produced. For example, I was shocked when I visited Huawei Research in 2018-19. They had 25,000 technology researchers, Khun Guitar. Shocked, right? >> 25,000 people. >> 25,000 people. >> Yes. >> Now there are 150,000 people. >> Hundreds of thousands of researchers. >> Hundreds of thousands. And they collaborate in labs. >> Yes. >> So, this has made Huawei the designer and manufacturer of EUV machines, with Hisilicon designing and conducting joint research with SMIC. SMIC then produces chipsets. >> Yes. >> There will be two main manufacturers. The main one is SMIC, which we already know. And there are two new companies: C-Core and another company that recently IPO'd with a massive valuation: MT. This is a competitor to Nvidia. The IPO subscription was over 2,000%, about 2,700%. It's like a symbol of Chinese people wanting to subscribe to this chipset company. And there are dozens of other startups like this. This will make the entire supply chain production more stable, Khun Guitar. >> This is just the chip universe, Professor. You've told us so much. So, the chip war with America and China is over this time, but it seems to be the prologue or the beginning of a new war. Because they will go their separate ways, but this separation will lead to clear competition in the future. The two poles will no longer depend on each other, Professor. >> And it's even more different than that, Khun Guitar. Regarding chips, it's a very significant chapter. The chipsets are announced by Peking University. Normal chipsets from Nvidia or the American architecture are binary. Now, Peking University has created another one called Analog AI. >> Yes. >> Analog AI is like our analog phones, but the technology wasn't as advanced then. For chip devices, Analog AI will process AI 1,000 times faster than binary AI, like Nvidia's BR. This is in the research labs of Peking University. >> And the chips we see, like 1 nanometer, are electrons. But now, in the labs at Shanghai High, they have labs that use light, which is about 1,000 times faster than electrons. And most importantly, it's energy-efficient and generates no heat. They call it Photonic chips. This is in the labs of Shanghai University. Therefore, China is moving from a digital system to a quantum system with very high processing power. >> Yes. >> Because Analog AI will be used to manage smart cities, manage financial transactions, which are numerous in each transaction, and manage autonomous cars. This is another area that will support AI, which is moving separately. America is still in its early stages, a very small startup. But this is a university, and it's being managed by Huawei. So, we will see Huawei as the infrastructure, >> Yes. >> As the research design, and also as China's factory in terms of tech. >> And will it become fully commercial, Professor? China's products are questioned for their efficiency, speed, and advancement, but perhaps not the system the world is accustomed to, like America's. >> Not necessarily, Khun Guitar. They use the approach of making their country a model and selling it. >> And all countries will buy the system. >> Yes. >> For example, today, what will Analog AI lead to? It will lead to them entering the autonomous car market. >> Yes. >> Faster. Toyota predicts around 2050. >> Yes. >> But it looks like in China, it might reach the 5th generation by 2030-35. Because Analog AI will enable autonomous cars to manage, and they are already moving towards 6G. Therefore, the Chinese automotive industry, which everyone used to look down on, thought it was impossible. >> Yes. >> Khun Guitar, you see that the world has excluded China. How many car brands are there in total? >> Around 30, perhaps? Well-known brands. But in China, there are about 90 brands. >> Which, I heard, competed from thousands, right? In the end, there will probably be about 30-40 left, which is equal to all the brands in the world. >> Yes. >> But you'll see one thing: BYD is not like Japanese or American cars. >> Yes. >> They make cars at a cheap price. >> So cheap that people will replace them without regret. >> Why? Because technology is advancing rapidly. And after three years, the technology will change, and it will move towards autonomous car systems. Because autonomous cars are the only EVs that can progress, and China is the leader. China will be the exporter of smart cities in the form of autonomous cars. >> Yes. >> This is what we will see based on the chipset structure. This is not my word; it's from Khun Jensen Huang. >> Yes. >> He said that in America, the semiconductor industry grows by 20-30% annually, which they are very happy about. But unlike China, they grow by double each year. It's not necessary for China to be the best today, but it's evident that one day, it will be the best. And they won't sell individual components like us, but they will sell an ecosystem. Another thing that will cause the most change, Khun Guitar, is that within the next two years, all PC computer systems in China will use Harmony OS or another OS. The Chinese Ministry of Defense uses this. I think it will be Harmony OS. >> Because the government ordered that 100% of hardware and software must be produced domestically. >> Yes. >> So, the problem is, if they have to go to war with America and they are still using Microsoft's system, and if Microsoft shuts down the system, the entire country will be paralyzed. Therefore, the foundation must be to use Huawei's Harmony system. >> This is it. Harmony is unique because Android and iOS are smartphone OSs. But Huawei's is a Smart City OS and a platform where we have our phones, PCs, tablets, and Huawei's operating cars. >> Everything is connected. You can look at this and then look at your car. It's the same operating system on the autonomous car system, the office system, and the home IoT system, which is becoming IOE. Therefore, what they are breaking down the walls of chipsets has caused this commercial leap. And within these two years, Microsoft will lose 1.4 billion customers. The misfortune falls on us. We will have to choose between Apple or Microsoft, which is already a headache. And we will have another device with the Harmony system to communicate with Asia. >> So, the world will be clearly divided into two systems. >> Yes, not just the financial system, Khun Guitar. This is the technology system, which is divided into two systems. >> And when we look at it, Khun Guitar, it's not just China. Russia, Iran, North Korea, parts of India, Africa, and many parts of South America. >> BRICS and allies. >> Yes. Therefore, what Nvidia predicts is that we are facing a big problem, and the big news today is what? Mr. Trump just built a power plant. No, the president just built a power plant. Why? Because Mr. Jensen Huang said our economy is larger than America's, larger than China's. >> Yes. >> But China has twice as much electricity as we do. And while we are building AI chip manufacturing companies and data centers, all of which use electricity, the electricity in America is not enough. What's more highlighted is that electricity in America is more expensive than in China because the government reduces electricity costs by 50% for semiconductor manufacturing companies. >> This is the Chinese side. >> This is the Chinese side. >> Yes. >> So, the cost of semiconductors, besides receiving research funding from the government, also has a 50% reduction in electricity costs. Not only is there plenty, but it's also cheap. >> Cheap. What's more highlighted is that China is going all out. They have just built 6 nuclear fusion power plants. Fusion is an old system, a nuclear power plant. >> Yes. >> Six power plants are about to be completed, and they are testing the fusion system, which is a system of splitting. It's like a simulated sun. >> But quantum will make the simulated sun system perfect because quantum is fast enough to calculate the plasma splitting. >> The plasma of nuclear material. This calculation will make the power plant safe. This is the first thing. We're not talking about renewable energy like solar panels, those are ordinary. Another thing is they discovered thorium. Thorium is American technology, but it's clean and safe, and it doesn't explode. America didn't pursue it further and instead pursued uranium. >> Yes. >> If thorium is used, China's electricity costs will be zero. What Chinese factories in Xinjiang are doing now is producing reactors that can withstand salt corrosion. Thorium is salt. But in America, they haven't been able to do this yet. If this is successful, and it's currently producing 10 megawatts of electricity at a pilot plant in Xinjiang, this 10 megawatts is about to be expanded. The advantage of thorium is what? Every mine in China has thorium ore. It's on the surface, on everything. And there are 20,000 years of reserves. >> So, there will be reserves to generate electricity for a vast amount of time. >> Yes. >> What we need to see now is that Chinese chips might not be able to compete with American chips. >> Yes. >> But Chinese chips are cheaper. >> And they don't sell just individual components, right? This is America's limitation: everything is in pieces. But here, it's not like that anymore. >> On the American side, recently, Elon Musk is also going to build a data center in space, Professor. >> Yes. >> To get good costs and energy efficiency. Could this be a breakthrough for the American side? >> This is something I've said for a long time: one day, we will have data centers in space. >> Yes. >> Because of cooling. Another reason for data centers is that at Fullerton University, they have discovered a new type of memory chip production. By mixing graphene into memory chips, memory chips will become 50% more energy-efficient. >> Yes. >> And faster, about 100 to 10,000 times faster than Micron's NAND memory chips. And they don't require as much electricity, and there's no heat. This is what came out of Fullerton University. Therefore, memory chips will be another technology. While Nvidia's binary system consumes a lot of power. >> Yes. >> But with analog and photonic systems, it reduces power consumption. Meanwhile, China's electricity is abundant. This is what we clearly see as the future. America is not building an ecosystem; they are doing things individually. But this has a roadmap for the country's ecosystem, heading towards what's called a smart city. And it's already evident, especially in the automotive industry, right? >> Yes. >> But China's satellites will be more advanced in terms of the Mate phones. You can use them, and China is also developing low-orbit satellite systems for all communication systems to use satellite systems. This doesn't mean they won't use fiber optics. >> Yes. >> Most recently, Huawei again. I talk about Huawei a lot. >> Yes. >> They produce fiber optics. In all of ASEAN, they use Huawei products. Since they use Huawei products, they have produced new ones. Simply put, the most advanced fiber optic in the world is from Facebook. It has a range of 5,000 km before needing a repeater. But Huawei has released a new one that is about 10 times faster than Facebook's, released this year from their new research lab. And it can use a repeater every 10,000 km. >> Therefore, China's support for quantum computing will be quite high. We are currently at a point where digital is moving towards quantum. In 2017, a quantum cable was laid from Beijing to Shanghai. China has conducted tests in some areas. Meanwhile, on the American side, Google is experimenting, and D-Wave is supporting IBM, but it's still quite slow. >> While Microsoft has none yet but wants to control the entire technical ecosystem. In quantum technology, the West is slower. They have been testing since 2018, and Huawei has just announced that they will have PC computers for direct use with quantum systems. So, we are clearly entering the Quantum Age. Therefore, today, we can say that the world has traveled to

The paths have clearly diverged. China is building an ecosystem, while America is building high technology. They don't match at all.

And the result of them being at opposite poles, being different, is that they will go their separate ways. The remaining allies in the world will have to choose, or we will be forced to choose, or there will be conflict so that only one winner remains.

Ultimately, there will be a forced choice because all the conflicts in the world will lead to a new world order, a new governance, as we discussed at the beginning. We are on a system architecture that will lead to a new world governance system called technocracy. This means that people will be controlled by technology, by this "thing," and you will have no right to make mistakes. This is the meaning of the Smart City that is behind this new governance system. Therefore, it is necessary for both camps to compete as fiercely as possible, so that no one can monopolize the supply chain as in the past.

Yes, and this competition will lead to the creation of new innovations, new developments. Yes, to the point where technology reaches the highest level that the world will move forward.

Yes, for example, China will build what is called an ecosystem.

Yes.

But in America, it will go towards AGI. SoftBank has come in and said that in 10 years, it will go towards ASI, which is Artificial Super Intelligence. This means computers will be smarter than humans. But China will not be like that; it will have a system.

What system? Everything will be fast in order to control, for example, the traffic control of drones, the traffic control of autonomous cars, like that. The control of billions of CCTV cameras in China, the GPS system that exists, that connects to the system. They need speed and stability. But this requires the highest high technology. The research side is doing it, and the commercial side is also doing it and creating an ecosystem.

On the American side, AGI will go to ASI, which is Artificial Super Intelligence. Many futurists and technologists have spoken about this, saying it will cause a new change in the world where AI will be smarter than humans.

Yes.

It might be a perfect world, because the economy will run with AI producing and creating everything. Humans will be comfortable, doing only what they like.

But before that, it might be an era of recession, job losses, and a violent, brutal transition. How do you see the future of artificial super intelligence?

It's already going there. It's going there with the calculation of technology year by year. That it will reach that point. Therefore, the super, artificial super intelligent will be able to enter into management and various other matters. But I haven't seen the West create Smart Cities yet. When Elon Musk first came as an advisor to Trump, in the early period, I actually felt that America should enter into Smart Cities, with Elon Musk changing the structure of, what do you call it, the infrastructure of the government system first. If the infrastructure of the government system changes, it will make others follow. And when contacting the government, it turns out Elon Musk left first. And you, Kitar, will see that in the last two days, there was a power outage in San Francisco. It turned out that the autonomous cars were stopped in the middle of the road, and the power outage is a big problem for America, as I said.

But the world of AI, from the perspective America sees, where there will be super AI smarter than humans, is it good for humans, or is it separate from humans, Professor?

The question is, we had electricity for the first time, and people were very excited. Is it good for humans or not good for humans?

It's beneficial in many aspects of life. There are activities in life, production, goods, development of the country.

The big problem is propaganda. These AIs are demons. This is a big problem that both Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg see. Why have we become demons? We are trying to do things that humans don't need to do.

Yes.

For example, as a housekeeper. In 2026, Kitar, we will enter the era of human robots.

Yes.

It depends on Unit and 4-5 other companies in China, and Elon Musk's Optimus, how amazing they will be when they come out. Humanoid robots will enter our daily lives. Another thing is that they will replace human labor. For example, if I have no children and am the last person, I would want someone to take care of me.

Yes.

So, robots are the answer. To do housework, I can't do it anymore. So, they can do housework and take care of us, right? We feel more confident with humans coming in, or something like that.

Yes.

This is us entering a new era. So, it reflects back to the economic system, Kitar. Why is money flowing to the tech industry entirely, and is ready to invest with huge amounts of money? We've only seen the first stage. We will see about 2-3,000 more companies doing AI entering the stock market. It will be even more amazing. In an interview at the beginning of last year, I said that China has about 10 more companies similar to Epic. Now you see, right? That more than 10 companies have emerged that we can see.

Therefore, there will be about 1,000-2,000 more companies like these all over the world for us to be amazed by. Because right now, what AI helps with the most is writing code.

You don't have to write anymore. Just imagine, and you don't need to find technicians to write code anymore, because AI will write it for you.

But that is if the innovation side, the development side of the world, will go much further. And there will be many opportunities for investment in new businesses that are coming in the era of both AI and quantum. But on the other hand, there are real risks, aren't there, Professor? Do you see that before we pass into the era of perfect AI, perfect Smart Cities, and technology that controls and manages the entire system, we must go through a period of crisis, a dark period, a period of transition from humans to full technology?

We say that 2025 is the year the world can no longer go back to the way it was. We will enter a world of entirely new technology. Therefore, when we enter a world of new technology, what follows is the old industry. We discussed why the stocks of the "Seven Angels" went up, and the other 480 companies did not. And some even did new things. This means we will have quite a lot of zombie corporations in this world. In the stock market, I said in 2020, 2019.

Yes.

Half of the stock market will disappear, or perhaps companies that cannot generate revenue by 2030. At least half, or 70%. Today, in 2025, Kitar, how many zombies do you see? I think more than 40% are not growing but not dead.

Does this mean in Thailand or globally?

In Thailand, in Thailand itself.

In the Stock Exchange of Thailand alone, not including companies outside the market. They are all zombies. And they grow only with loans. They grow with loans, and they don't grow much. So, we can see that when real estate stopped in 2023, Thailand stopped. Before that, in the previous era, until COVID and after COVID, it was driven by real estate, so we grew 3-4%. But now it has come down to this. Therefore, as I said, in the world, whether it's Thailand, which is already scary, in Europe, I think about 80% are already zombies.

Those who cannot keep up with old technology and industries will be left behind and will disappear.

They will be removed from the system entirely. But when people leave the system, it becomes, "Oh, what about the existing debt?"

Yes.

It becomes non-performing loans, and a financial crisis will occur. This one is likely to be bigger than the Great Depression. But the problem is, people don't know that we are in a crisis. Since 2020, the real crisis in this round is the lack of circulation. The lack of circulation of money. Everyone starts to see the lack of circulation from the fact that the real estate business worldwide stopped in 2023. And money from then on, it doesn't circulate anymore. And interest rates have risen, and it doesn't circulate anymore. This is what will cause a rather high Great Depression.

It's like the breath is cut off.

It's cut off in the old industries. Therefore, money must go to new places.

But for companies or businesses that you, Professor, call zombies, and they can still operate, there are people there. There are business owners, employees, and a lot of labor. If these businesses collapse, it means a large number of people in the system will also collapse.

I just did a workshop at Columbia University in October. The biggest problem with transformation is that 70% fail because of people. And I've done transformations myself, and I know the biggest problem is people. So, there is a price to pay.

If we go a little deeper, the biggest problem is people. Can you explain what that problem is? Do people refuse to change? Are they not skilled enough to change, or what?

It's all combined. And they don't know they need to change. They will change what? They don't know what they need to do because it's not within their comfort zone. Because what we are talking about, in the future technology of the world, Kitar, can you open Nvidia? It's not easy. Can you open Facebook? Can you install the system?

Yes.

And our country has destroyed education, destroyed students since I was a child, by teachers making children hate mathematics. We never ask, do children not learn well, or do teachers teach poorly?

Yes.

But children are taught to be stupid first. We never say teachers teach poorly. But this makes Thai children not good at mathematics. When they are not good at mathematics, it leads to not being able to do technology. It doesn't create that mindset because children are brainwashed to hate mathematics. So, when it comes to this point, it turns out that for people to change, Kitar, there must be a crisis that forces them to change. Therefore, a financial crisis, a major recession, and a large war worldwide, in order to rebuild and create anew. Because the city needs Smart Cities, it will happen there, in order to change people and filter people out another layer. Then enter the system called Agenda 2030, which is population reduction. This is all interconnected, Professor, the financial aspect, the economic aspect, and the technological aspect.

Yes.

But there is another dimension that the world is currently facing. Under competition and all sorts of volatility, conflict has been occurring for many years. And this year, we see it even more clearly. We, or Thai people, feel it acutely because conflict has occurred at our border. We may have followed the wars in Israel, Russia, and other hotspots. We can still talk to the Professor, but perhaps no one expected that one day we would have to witness the use of weapons of war, fighting, and casualties in Thailand. If we look at the dimension of geography, of war, which the Professor has warned about for a long time, and the term "World War III," which the Professor said has already begun, the picture is becoming clearer and clearer. 2025, moving towards 2026. Professor, what is the outlook for global-level wars and global-level conflicts?

I must use the words of His Holiness Pope Francis XIV. He said in Palestine, in Lebanon recently, that World War III has already formed all over the world at this moment. It's like coming back to what you, Kitar, asked about our country not expecting war, which I also didn't expect. I would like to ask the viewers: who are we fighting? Who are we fighting now?

That's a very important question. Are we fighting neighboring countries, or are we fighting those behind them?

More than that. And they are sending them into the battlefield. Like I was asked if Zelensky and Putin could talk in 2022 when the war broke out. I also asked, who is Russia fighting? Does Zelensky have the power to decide anything?

Which sounds similar to what we've heard about proxy wars.

Yes. Therefore, if we see the war in Russia-Ukraine as a war between Russia and NATO fighting on Ukrainian territory, we will see the whole picture. We see Chinese weapons, we see Chinese drones, we see North Korean soldiers.

We see the connection with Russia and Iran regarding missiles. And I've said that you shouldn't underestimate Iranian missiles. A deviation of centimeters from the target is possible. We saw it in the 12-day war with Israel. Israel couldn't go on, to the point that they had to ask Trump to negotiate, and Iran yielded first. Because if America got involved, they wouldn't have a defense system. In the end, China approved about 60 fighter jets with pilots. During this time, they were teaching, and Russia sent S-300s as a defense system. And another squadron of Russian aircraft came to provide defense, because Iran doesn't have its own air force. So, here it is clear that the world is divided into two sides: NATO or G7, on one side, and the land on the other side. We see it clearly. And we will see another picture: it's not just war, Kitar. There is also chaos within each country. Which, in our country, we will discuss later. We see chaos in Europe, inequality, children having no opportunities in careers, while adults get good welfare. And in America, there are issues of disparity and many other things. Therefore, this is the foundation for creating conflict, nurturing what is called, not quite civil war, but chaos or unrest like what happened in Pakistan, sorry, like what Nepal experienced. So, the question is, why does Nepal have problems? Who set up the system for Nepal to have problems? So, we can see that surrounding China, it will be a region with internal problems. Starting from Japan.

Yes.

Taiwan, Philippines, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar, right? Pakistan, Nepal, Afghanistan, and then to Iran. This is the circle around China.

It looks like a Ring of Fire in a war version.

Yes.

Where boiling points or conflict points are placed around China.

Yes. And importantly, it's not just fighting on the battlefield. It involves people within the country fighting each other. There was a saying when the British won the war against the Spanish Armada.

And the way to make Britain strong was to tell them to send our people to stir up the Spanish people and make them kill each other so that we would be safe and benefit.

Divide.

Divide.

And conquer.

Yes. And benefit from that conflict.

Which you are saying this pattern is happening now. It's still the same.

It has been going on all along. There must be nurturing. Nurturing these people.

And from the conflicts in each point that are happening now, Professor, in 2026 and after, how will the development proceed? In Asia, we see that there are conflicts around China, and ours is still a problem and difficult to solve. Other parts of the world, Russia-Ukraine, they say it will end, but it hasn't ended. Israel-Iran, there's a ceasefire, but there are still intermittent clashes.

What are the boiling points in 2026 that you are concerned about, Professor?

There are a total of 4 points. The first point is Israel and Iran, because Netanyahu is lobbying for Trump to help manage Iran. Trump himself is hesitant because what Iran has is something that can manage America. That is, America must send warships, but Iran uses missiles to shoot. So, as I've interviewed many times, they will shoot decoys to make the defense system work first. When the defense system is overloaded, then they shoot the real ones. Therefore, the American fleet is very concerned about this. The first point is Iran and Israel, which I highlight as number 1. The second point is Venezuela, which is also out of sight, but suddenly there is conflict.

Regarding Venezuela, I might think it's more than just oil, because bordering Venezuela is Chile, which has lithium deposits. I'm looking at rare earths too, but they haven't been revealed yet. But they use oil for some aspects. So, what America lacks right now, and doesn't want to fight China for, is rare earths. Without rare earths, all of America's industries will be paralyzed. They need to find replacements.

But China is using this time to change its technological structure. And another point, which is very indie, is Japan.

Yes.

I fear that Japan will open up to North Korea. Japan and North Korea. We see Japan this year seeming to have a conflict with China, but it's a diplomatic clash.

Yes.

But why bring it up to North Korea, Professor?

North Korea might be the one to start the game to cause a clash with Japan and then consolidate Taiwan.

Yes.

Yes, but I think we have to wait. We have to wait for China to sort out its domestic affairs first, especially the infrastructure, the management system, all of it.

Yes.

So that there are no hindrances.

But with Japan, actually, does Japan have the military capability to fight? Because since World War II, we've seen that Japan's security system depends on America.

Japanese technology. They don't produce weapons, but they haven't stopped developing war technology. Companies like Mitsubishi Heavy are researching war equipment and have blueprints. What Japan can do is amend the constitution and expand factories. That's all.

Like what they are trying to do now.

Like what they are doing now, expanding and escalating conflicts, and...

Yes.

And having more Japanese people join the military, and relying on the American army as well. So, the surrounding ring will heat up everywhere, without us noticing, that it might be a normal thing. Because there will be questions: when will it happen? When will they fight? But there are more reasons than that. Kitar, you will see that at the last two meetings in China, they were significant launches. One picture is of Modi leading President Xi Jinping and Putin, and they are sitting and laughing in front of a restroom.

It's a picture of dissolution, saying India doesn't have to deal with America. Let's trade again here and build a new ecosystem without America. And another picture is in Beijing, where President Xi Jinping is walking, followed by President Putin, President Kim of Korea, and a representative from Iran, walking together, four of them. And...

Several countries in Eastern Europe. But among these four who are leading, that's a picture saying they are ready for war, both economically and violently, and we are allies, from the wars in Ukraine and Iran that we see.

Yes.

And in essence, Professor, the allied group you see there, including China and Russia?

Including India and some groups in Eastern Europe.

Do they have a stable relationship? Because each side seems to have its own interests that are quite conflicting within the team.

I use the word that their interests are currently aligned due to the tariff issue.

Which made India change its mind immediately.

Yes. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Is my friend.

They have the same enemy.

Yes. At first, we saw India as being neutral, but today India is not. It has fully entered the grand game.

Yes. Therefore, the heat will increase, increase, increase. But when a clash will occur depends on the timing when everyone is ready. But I can tell you that when war comes, no one is ready. But when it reaches a certain point, it will have to happen. Yes. Because we have been talking from the beginning, we see that there will definitely be an economic crisis. Which is already happening in the economic crisis phase 1: there is no circulation. We haven't seen an immediate crash. If there is a major crash, the entire system will collapse. And the issue of technology. Whoever leads will win World War III. It will create what is called the leader of the New World Order. They will set the rules for the new world order in terms of the emerging world of technology. And the world's population, which has problems with conflict and poverty, will become increasingly severe, especially as the economy declines, which will cause widespread unrest throughout the world.

Is that the reason that leads to war, Professor? Scarcity, intense competition for technology for supremacy, or even issues in the money and capital markets that cause crises?

It's all three things happening at the same time. So, the cause of the economic crisis is due to, what do you call it, all these zombie companies that can no longer continue. And these zombie companies are more than 80% of the world.

We see it clearly from the money that flows only into specific industries, Kitar. We've been reporting on the economy for a long time. Have we ever seen companies not yet listed on the stock exchange with a valuation of hundreds of billions or trillions? We've never seen that. But how is money circulating to this extent to go into companies like OpenAI or Mortet in China, which is happening now?

Yes. But if we step back and look at the fundamental reasons, Professor has warned us about economic crises, conflicts, and wars all along. What is the fundamental reason?

Why must war happen? Even though we see that two wars have caused loss and destruction, and we often hear the saying that no one benefits from war.

Yes. War is trade, and trade is war. The winner is the one who dictates the new history afterwards. No one does not benefit from war. Therefore, those who, like in World War I and World War II, what caused World War I? An economic crisis.

Yes. And banks had problems, so banks incited war, provoked war, and ultimately banks grew after the global economic crisis of World War I. And when World War II occurred, banks set the regulations. So, all banks will become controllers of the system's problems. Therefore, banks are currently having problems and need solutions. Kitar, you will see that in 2000, when the CIS occurred, there was a very large company.

Yes.

It led the way. We don't mention Elon, we don't mention WorldCom, because they went bankrupt.

Yes.

Cisco is still here. Did Cisco rise this time?

Not at all.

Not at all, right? Because Cisco is like...

Like it doesn't exist. Because after 25 years, Cisco's technology is gone. We don't hear about IBM. IBM is still too big, too cumbersome to change. We don't hear about the Seven Angels. But the question is, are banks like JP Morgan, Chase Bank of America, BNP Paribas, and five other banks in England still the drivers?

They still are.

Yes. And it's been like this for over 100 years.

Yes.

Therefore, the root of all conflicts is technology and bank investments to increase profits. Let me give a simple example. World War I was a major transfer of wealth.

Yes.

Britain collected gold for 200 years, but all the gold was gone in the first year to the United States, for buying, what do you call it, war weapons and war supplies.

Britain's gold was completely gone to America. Then Britain had to borrow money from America to fight the war. They borrowed from JP to fight the war. After World War I ended, Britain had to make Germany pay reparations.

Yes.

The question is, Britain had no money, and Germany had no money. So, what would JP Morgan do? JP Morgan arranged to lend to Germany. And Germany used that money to pay Britain's reparations.

Yes.

And Britain repaid the loan to JP Morgan.

It's a war economy.

War finance system.

The financial system is behind all conflicts. And JP Morgan grew from assets of about 500 million dollars to 1.3 billion dollars within 4 years of World War I. And traded with Hitler and financed Hitler to build war equipment.

And the technology companies of that time, whether it was BMW, various companies, received financing from JP Morgan. And JP Morgan gave it to Hitler, who then supported those companies and started the war. That's all. So, there is an economic system, a trade system, a money circulation system behind every war. Every war has a cost.

And every war has a profit.

And a lot of profit. For example, the Napoleonic Wars. The Rothschild family's profits increased from an investment of only 20,000 pounds, over 200 years ago. The initial investment was 20,000 pounds. After 17 years of conflict in Europe, they became rich with 50 million pounds. The profit was tens of thousands of times. In World War I and World War II, they controlled the entire global financial system by creating the IMF and the World Bank. Like we discussed earlier, France could not solve its country's problems until the IMF wrote new laws for France. Which will happen soon.

Yes.

Therefore, it will happen when there is a reset. There will be a demolition and reconstruction, and a new system of wealth, a new system of technological innovation.

A new way of life and a new world order.

And I will tell everyone that if we understand the word "crisis is opportunity," I will ask: what is crisis, and what is opportunity? Just now, it was said that in past crises, the elites behind them grew 50,000 times. And every 100 years, they grow like this. The question is, why don't we learn what this crisis is, and where is the opportunity? And we think like the elites, who everyone criticizes me as a conspiracy theorist. But Kitar, you see, right? In the past two years of discussion, the companies I recommended didn't grow 10-20%, they grew 5-6 times all the time. Because we understand what crisis is, and where the world is heading. If we understand this, the opportunity to grow hundreds of times, many hundreds of times, is in this 10-year period. Therefore, it means you say, "Oh, it's scary. Let's save money." But if inflation rises, your money depreciates immediately. This is even more dangerous. Therefore, what we should learn at this time is to learn what crisis is and where we can seize opportunities from it. And a round like this, Kitar, happens once every 100 years.

Therefore, if we say this is a severe crisis of the world, more than 100 years, it is a great opportunity of 100 years.

A 100-year opportunity as well.

Therefore, it is very important, Professor, that we understand the crisis. We are not here to give everyone only a perspective of fear and worry. But as the Professor has said, if we know how the system works.

What is the crisis, and we study it, and we look at it and say, "Okay, how can we survive from what might be terrible from the events that are happening, and how can we seize opportunities from it?"

We don't look at survival, Kitar. We have to look at how we will win this game. It's all a game. We have to think like the rich people in the world. There are two types. Like the millionaires in Thailand, they are called Ultra.

But those who control the world are called the elites, the IT people. We have to learn what they are thinking, why Jamie Dimon said, "If you see one cockroach, it means there are many." And everyone talked about it for months.

Yes.

Because this is someone from the IT group who can say what is about to happen significantly, and the whole world has to listen when people like this speak.

The elites you mentioned, Professor, refer to families of wealthy people?

They have power. They are the superpowers of the world.

They are the superpowers of the world. And we learn what they are thinking and what they are doing.

Yes.

Like now in France, they are attacking Emmanuel Macron, saying he ruined the economy.

Yes.

Because he benefited the Rothschilds, because Macron is a person from the Rothschild bank who came to manage the country.

Yes.

Like this. We have to understand what benefits are there in that crisis, what is happening. Kitar, when you reported on Greece, do you remember your feelings then?

During the Eurozone debt crisis, Greece was on the verge of collapse.

This year, Greece's stock market yield is 40%.

It's a completely different picture from that day. A different movie. That day, we thought they would be kicked out of the Eurozone and collapse.

Because we were hypnotized by the news.

Yes. We always have fear, uncertainty, and panic about what might be like a crisis.

The world is driven by hope and fear. So, we have to manage hope and fear. But if we are above hope and fear, we will see that the process is like this: 1, 2, 3, 4, and it repeats, repeats, and repeats. Why don't we understand that? Just now, I mentioned the Greek stock market.

But if you, Kitar, had bought Greek bonds that day, priced at 100, selling for 5 euros.

Yes.

You would have made 20 times the profit immediately.

But of course, no one would have dared that day, Professor.

Yes, there were. People who understood the system. Like the crisis in Sri Lanka. My student, Professor, where can I buy Sri Lankan bonds?

That is truly crisis as opportunity.

Yes. And Sri Lanka is finished. The bonds are back to 100 from defaulting.

Yes. Therefore, crises do not last forever, and prosperity does not last forever. It rises and falls in cycles.

Yes, yes. Therefore, we must see it like the East India Company wrote: war is trade, and trade is war.

It sounds painful, but it is the reality of the world that we must learn. And if we break it down into what is an opportunity, as the Professor sees the superpowers of the world doing, and the events that will happen, the crisis, war, conflict, and severe unrest of the 100-year cycle, what assets are there for opportunity?

Everything. And the biggest highlight right now is the bond market.

The bond market that you, Professor, mentioned. Will the bond market become a superpower? Will it become a supernova? Will it be the cause of the crisis?

Yes. The global bond market, which is 3 million to 300 trillion dollars, is a great opportunity.

Yes. The gold market, crypto, I'm still 50-50, I don't dare, I don't dare to talk about it.

And the stock market.

Let's start with the bond market first. Professor, do you mean American bonds, or bonds from where? Should we stick with bonds from safe countries, or how should we choose?

The worst countries. 2008 crisis, what was it?

Subprime mortgages.

There was a sell-off of assets. At that time, the world was going to collapse.

Yes.

But Stephen Schwarzman, the owner of Blackstone.

Yes.

Bought 400,000 houses in America within 2-3 weeks. He bought all the contracts without even looking at the houses.

Yes. Private credit came in and bought houses. Because at that time, house prices had dropped by 40%. And American houses, if not for such a crisis, prices wouldn't have dropped this much.

Yes.

So, it dropped to the point where there was no risk left. And on some days, Blackstone sold 10,000 houses a day. You, Kitar.

Yes.

They had to hire outsourced staff to handle the transfer of houses at prices that increased from 40 to 120.

That is truly seizing opportunity from crisis. But it must have been buying when it was very cheap, right?

When it was being sold off, bought without looking at the houses, over 400,000 houses.

Blackstone went in and bought mortgage-backed securities. They understood the system and bought them. As a result, in the following year, they made a 15% profit. And in a market with 15% profit and 0% interest, that's a lot. And they sold them to the Federal Reserve.

Yes.

When the Federal Reserve said they would buy mortgage-backed securities in Q3. But this Blackstone, its nickname is "King of Bonds," Professor. If we look at...

The methods of the King of Bonds. And if we apply them to us, ordinary people, Professor, can we make such profits? Professor, when is the right time, and how should we plan buying and selling?

Now, the global market is accessible to everyone. Everything is accessible.

Yes. There are many funds. Otherwise, would Blackstone manage companies all over the world? Because they also manage other people's money. Especially Blackstone, they have almost everything.

Therefore, buying assets through funds at a time when the market crashes, when it's heavily down, is an option we should consider if we know how the system works.

Yes.

It must come from thorough study first.

Ah, and another thing you mentioned, that technology will come. We talked with Kitar at the beginning of last year and said, look at quantum companies like Wave.

It went from $45 to over $40 within a year, a 10-fold increase, not 10%, but a 10-fold increase.

This is us seeing the trend.

Yes.

So, in the hands of trends, there are also crises in the hands.

Yes. In the mood where we don't have enough money to buy everything, and it returns like this.

Another point is gold. This year, gold has had an outstanding performance, up over 60%. But it's not surprising that during the year, there were still people FOMOing, people who bought high and sold low. So, in conclusion, Professor, will gold be the ultimate asset next year and in the future?

We will still see gold. Gold will be number 1 in this transition period. Therefore, as we discussed earlier, gold has risen by almost 5%. This will be a 5% to back America's debt.

And if it rises to 10%, how much will that be? And if we use the same theory, how much will gold be per baht? I don't know, but I'll take the short term first, to 85,000 baht per baht.

The other day I saw Next Station at 75,000. Has it gone to 85,000 now, Professor?

That's without being too excited. But what I see is likely that. But we might encounter currency issues. The Thai baht might be seen at 28.

We might see 28.

The Thai baht will strengthen to 28.

It's likely to be around that.

Why, Professor? Right now, the dollar has to weaken itself.

From Trump's policy.

Uh, from Trump's policy. Therefore, it has nothing to do with crypto or money or anything else. Trump's policy alone will cause the dollar to weaken, because he wants to return to being an exporting country. Therefore, he will force American goods to become more expensive to make it worthwhile to set up new factories in America.

Yes.

That's the long-term strategy.

But returning to gold, Professor, you said it will be an asset during the transition period. Because we have been talking throughout the program, right? The world is changing its system, and during the transition of systems, both technology and politics, governance, there must be an asset that serves as a guarantee of currency confidence.

That is gold. This gold will be an important factor, and it can be converted into other assets in each crisis that occurs. So, if we understand, Kitar, we just sit and watch. Here, play this game. Here, play that game.

But it has risen over 60% this year. Is this just the beginning?

It's just starting. In this crisis round, we will still have many unexpected things.

And earlier, Professor, you mentioned the percentage. If gold is calculated against bonds.

Prices in the tens of thousands, or even further, 40,000, 50,000.

That's what I think is thinking like a hawk. It's overestimating. But I think 5,000-1,000 will definitely be reached. Now, we are seeing a rapid accumulation of gold according to the data.

From global media in America, there are over 8,000 tons. We haven't seen the actual figures yet, but we see China is buying gold, and Big is also buying gold. Professor, what do you see as the role of China and Big in this gold accumulation round?

Because they want to use it as a reference for transactions in the digital currency system. Digital currency is not issuing tokens, but it is a transaction system that does not go through the SWIFT system. That is, China's SWIFT system.

And why use gold, Professor?

Gold is the only thing that can measure universal value, regardless of currency. That's why they simulate gold as Bitcoin. Because gold and Bitcoin are similar, they can be converted into all currencies.

But if the goal is to back the digital currency.

Does that mean they have to buy more gold? How much gold is needed to guarantee that their currency will be issued credibly?

I think the current holdings are sufficient, especially for China.

China has over 2,000 tons.

And 2,500 tons are held by the central bank, Kitar.

But commercial banks hold another 3,000 tons to back yuan gold futures contracts.

Yes, so together they have more than 5,000.

More than the IMF. And that doesn't include gold shops and ordinary people who are hoarding gold.

Yes.

The Chinese people also understand that they have gold.

They have gold. We went to Hong Kong, did you see? One necklace.

Yes, you need people to help carry it.

And Big, right, Professor? Other countries like Russia, India, and others, what is their role with gold?

Russia has the highest role with gold. Because their currency has now terminated the dollar almost entirely, and they have converted it to gold that they hold. And they also produce it themselves, over 1,000 tons per year.

And other countries, Professor? India, or are they still buying? Other countries still have economic problems, so they probably don't have enough to buy as much. But major countries can sustain themselves. And this will allow middle and lower-tier countries to receive assistance, and receive these things as well.

But from the data, America also has the highest amount in the world, Professor.

8,500 tons. That's why I say 8,500 tons of gold is the weapon they will use to back their debt. It's another card, the last card, after if anything happens to America's debt system. It's simple, use Executive Order 6102 to set the price of gold equal to how much of the dollar. I don't think it should be less than $10,000 per ounce.

Therefore, America has both the dollar as a currency and gold as a backing.

And they still have...

The idea of stable coins, Bitcoin. Will it erase all financial concepts?

It will be a supplement.

But if another generation asks, Professor, in this era, will gold still have value? Or is it difficult to transport? You said there will be war, and we will have to transport gold. What about Bitcoin? Isn't it more like the gold of this digital age? Should it be the answer?

Well, it depends on the perspective. But Bitcoin is another thing. It's not yet in Tier 1.

1 The second one, as it is transitioning from the digital age to the quantum age, it remains a question whether it will still be an answer in the quantum age. This is up to us, but when the time comes and we reach that era, we will see again. >> So, from the professor's perspective, looking at both history and the future, >> gold still has more stability in this transition. >> This period, more than more. >> Yes. >> We have laws to support it. >> Uh-huh. And Kittak, have you ever heard the professor say that at one point, there wouldn't be enough gold in the world for people to buy? >> Yes, sir. >> What does that mean? >> Well, it's almost not enough now. Every month, we have to buy it gradually because central banks worldwide want to terminate dollars from their portfolios. >> But will it be a continuous rise in gold prices, or will it only happen during the transition period, professor? >> Only during the transition period, only during the transition period. Because at some point, you will have to sell gold and hold other assets. >> It's not an asset you hold forever. >> Uh, you can hold it forever, but if you want higher returns in the future, after the economy crashes, there are many other opportunities. >> I see everything as a hypothesis, Khun Guitar. I move from one hypothesis to another constantly. >> We are not attached to anything, but we look at the reasons and factors in the price that is discounted, and then there will be capital gains afterward. This is what investors should look at. >> And another asset that people have been talking about and is very popular this year is technology stocks, professor. Stocks in the unicorn group, and on the other hand, it is seen that America is the hub of leading technology businesses. Therefore, the American stock market will be an attractive place to invest. If you are not good at investing in tech, invest in the S&P 500. What is your perspective on investing in >> American stocks and these tech stocks? >> I don't see tech stocks as a bubble, but I see money flowing into new industries, which is not surprising. And industries like aerospace, and other industries, these are new industries that are coming. But what is concerning is the banking system. No matter how good a company is, Khun Guitar, if the banking system has problems and collapses, domino-like, even good companies cannot survive. Therefore, today, it is just overvalued. >> And it is also questioned whether, if China builds its own ecosystem, its own path, what will the competition be like in the future? Because today, the valuation has risen dramatically. It wasn't because the financials were good, or because there was secret buying, stockpiling, and so on. There was investment in infrastructure, but after this, the question will be whether it will pause here first. And if financial institutions, especially regional banks in America, have any problems, no matter how good the stocks are, the liquidity will be sold off severely through all the fund systems. >> Yes. Therefore, when we buy American stocks, invest in tech stocks hoping for growth opportunities, we must be aware of the risks from financial institution crises. >> Financial institutions in America as well. >> This is the asset side. Finally, I would like to return to Thailand. Our situation is facing storms from all dimensions. >> Uh-huh. Regarding the economy, we are growing slowly. Regarding politics, we are in a state of unrest. We have geopolitical issues, natural disasters that lead to losses in all dimensions as well. Moving towards 2026, how do you see Thailand's future, professor? >> This year, 2025, I say that the economy will be around 50%. >> Yes. >> If the economy is good, it will be 75-1 or higher. >> Yes. For the year 2026, or B.E. 2569, I give it 40%, and for the year 2000, uh, 27 or 70 >> at 30%. >> So the score will decrease gradually, professor. From this year, it decreases. >> And next year, it decreases. >> Yes, and it will decrease further, and the next year will be even worse. >> No. And the year 70 will be the bottom. >> And then in B.E. 2571, or 2000, uh, 2028. >> It will come back up to 60%. >> Therefore, in B.E. 2570, let's just say, be strong. >> Let's put it this way: if in the next 2 years, >> Yes. >> our financial institution system can remain strong. >> Yes. >> We will not be in a bad situation. Therefore, do whatever it takes to ensure that financial institutions do not have any problems, and then we will grow back rapidly. And I think we will recover from the state of war. >> 2569 and 2570 will be the period. >> The most difficult period for us, especially 2570. >> Yes. So 2570 will be a consequence of 2500 569. >> Which we are about to enter, professor. >> Yes. We have elections in February. >> Yes. >> By the time we agree, I won't use another word. I think it will be around May. >> Yes. >> So, this means we will be like this for about 5-6 months, and we might have a government that doesn't understand what the country is facing, what the world is facing, and what problems to solve. The system of governance in Thailand, that we have reached this point, is because we have structural failures. Therefore, this election will not help anything; it will only make everything worse. But that is the reason why Thai people have to pay the price themselves for believing that this system is good. Our economic structure is OEM, but we always ask for wage increases. Therefore, when the base shifts, we immediately become zombies, and we don't have our own innovation. Therefore, what people know about Thailand is an Entertainment Country, a Holiday Country. If people don't have money to travel, everything falters. Because now, many countries are starting to have money circulation problems, but they come to Thailand because it's not too expensive. And our exports, our products are expensive. We hardly export anything, except for some semiconductors, which are decreasing. But we still export rice in sacks, just like when I was a child, Khun Guitar, before you were born. >> Yes. >> We export rice. >> In sacks. >> In sacks. And we have rice in sacks that is a bit more expensive, from 5,000 to 10,000, but it took 50 years. >> Our products haven't changed. We haven't added any innovation. >> So, don't be surprised that we grow slowly. >> Uh-huh. So, the only thing that can solve Thailand's problems is to change the country's structure, starting from the education system, the way of thinking, and so on. I do company transformations, and I know well that the problem lies with people. The problem lies with people who cannot change. Therefore, don't be surprised that I say today, we see zombie corporations in the stock market. I think it's about 30-40% already. Those that don't grow but don't die, not including those that siphon money, that's a special case. But the rest are just running along. We don't have innovative companies that make you say, "Wow!" because the big problem is that Thai people think that the Thai economy is domestic trade. >> Yes. >> But we don't think globally. But China is very aggressive in competition. They say, "We must go global. The world is our market." When the mindset is different, it becomes what it is now. >> But the point that the professor seems most concerned about is the banking system and businesses, including liquidity and debt repayment. >> Debt repayment as well. But our interest rates should remain stable. But we have to see first. >> Yes. >> What will happen on the American and Japanese sides, because our debt, about 90%, is borrowed from Japan. >> Yes. >> And now interest rates have risen so high. >> Now we clearly see that Thai people are heavily indebted. Household debt is high, around 80-something, close to 90. Government debt is also near the ceiling, and private debt as well, which carries risks regarding the business situation and default. The risk of default, and how severely it will affect the entire system. >> It will happen gradually, gradually. But the level of severity, Khun Guitar, have you heard anything frequently lately? High society defaulting on debts, high society smiling about money. >> Yes, yes. >> And >> wealthy people, people we think are rich, they default on their debts. >> Do you understand what I said 2-3 years ago, that it's not circulating? >> Yes. >> It hasn't been circulating for 2-3 years. >> At first, I felt very sorry, professor, thinking about how large businesses would fare, or sometimes I only thought about large businesses as individual companies. But now we are starting to see that >> people we think are rich, or businesses we think are rich, are not like that. >> This is the danger of non-circulation. >> Yes. >> And this is just news. How much more is not reported and checks are not circulating? So we must see that the wealthy, we can look at the balance sheets of companies in the stock market. Wealthy families will have more loans than assets. >> Yes. >> So they are rich from total assets, not purely from equity. In equity, it's on DE, which is quite high. And we are entering the death spiral, the final stage of the death spiral. This is where low interest rates are, and if they go up again, that's why the Bank of Thailand is not raising or lowering interest rates. It's to keep it in the middle. It can't go down, and it can't go up. It's about this much. >> Regarding the investments made in the past, we understand that there must have been a lot of leverage, and we have seen the ill effects of leverage that have caused many companies serious problems in the past 1-2 years. Do you think this will happen again, professor? >> We will see it. We will see it become normal in these 2 years. I said what I am most concerned about is that financial institutions must endure. Right now, everyone is still seeing an illusion. >> Because if one, two, four, five debtors default, they cannot repay their creditors. And if the bond defaults, the bank has to borrow from the bank first to issue the bond. >> They won't be able to pay interest. >> See? Some people look high society and luxurious. >> But they can't pay interest, and then what? Money doesn't circulate in time, but they still live luxuriously. We see this quite a lot in Thai society, and it will be like this next year, where we will see money circulation problems getting worse and worse. Don't forget, 40 and 30. >> That means the percentage scores you give, professor. 100% this year, 40% next year, 30% in year 70. Whoever said this year is burning for real, next year. >> Is there anything left to burn, professor? >> There hasn't been anything to burn for 2 years. >> It's all burnt out. It's all burnt out. Because, as I said, the real estate industry ended in 2023. 242, which was 3 years ago. Everything has stalled. >> But from the perspective of analysis firms and research firms, they will say that almost all engines are failing: exports, tourism, consumption, and even government spending are stumbling. It's clear, isn't it? That besides the blood not circulating, there is no pressure, no force to make the economy move. >> We misjudged by thinking that the government is the one that circulates. >> Uh-huh. >> Actually, no. The country has reached this point because the private sector circulates. The government doesn't have enough intelligence to know how to build a country. >> Yes. >> But we have private sectors, large family groups, that built it. But now it's a transition period. They are accustomed to industries of the 3rd era and are challenged by industries of the 4th era. This transformation process is not easy. >> Yes. >> But that's who built the country. >> So, what has the professor learned or seen from doing business transformations? You see that even large businesses, which are the locomotives of the economy, are not ready to change much, are they? >> It's not easy to change. And we have many people who are not ready to change. And we have people who don't know what to change because the industry they are in can no longer continue. >> Yes. >> As we discussed earlier, GOH used to be a top stock, but where is TISCO today, we don't know, right? In GOH itself. >> America. And we see that it's new stocks. We have to accept that today we are TISCO, which was very good 25 years ago, but today it's not. It's just waiting to die. Will we be like TOY or BUST, which suddenly collapsed? >> Yes. >> And collapsed under a pile of debt, and the debt bounced back to financial institutions. >> But for the workers, professor, the citizens in the system who may not have the power to determine the future of country management, and are not owners of giant businesses who have to fight against change. Are we just accepting the consequences of that change? What can we do? What can't we do? We are in a system where we can't do anything unless you start your own business or have to brace yourself as much as possible. Therefore, next year will be a year of restructuring for companies. This means the mass layoff will be very severe next year. >> And what do you recommend to those who have to face changes from this system, professor? >> You have to find a side hustle. You have to find as many side hustles as possible. We have what, 2 million influencers out of a population of 50 million. >> Does this show something? That the system has a problem. >> Yes. >> Right. And not all influencers succeed. There are still small incomes, even less than regular jobs for most. This means they couldn't work regular jobs, or could they? And they come to do this, investing with the expectation of getting returns, which is not the case. >> So, on the other hand, finding a second or third profession is a good thing, isn't it? >> Two, three, four even. >> But it's not easy to grab money from what is like a very dry pond with almost no fish. >> Nothing is easy. It's a period of filtering people out. >> We will see many more unexpected things. >> Like deleting oneself or something like that. Saving money in this era, professor. >> Emergency savings. How do you recommend emergency savings, professor? You are someone who has been through crises and has returned gracefully. But today, we will face it again. We will face another crisis. How do you recommend saving cash, financial planning, professor? >> This is very important, especially regarding debt. How will you negotiate with creditors? And managing your own liquidity. We can see that flood crises, natural disaster crises, or anything like that, people having no money is a big problem for the world, not just Thailand. >> Therefore, we must take good care of our financial liquidity, which is not easy because today it's difficult to circulate. Speaking of it, it's theory. >> Yes. >> Yes. Do a lot of good deeds, be careful. >> Yes, do a lot of good deeds. That might help one thing. It means if you should do it, because the professor said next year's crisis will be worse. So, if you have to save cash or be careful with cash allocation, it's for 2 full years, professor. >> Saving is not easy, Khun Guitar. >> Yes. >> Finding more work is easier. >> So, we need to focus on earning income. >> Ah, and there are many ways to earn income. Let's try to find them. There isn't one clear method. It depends on each person's aptitude. >> But if you still have some, professor. Is it better to save as cash or as gold, professor? >> Let's divide it. Buying gold is not easy anymore because the baht has risen to over 60,000. >> But some people say to save. Financial planners recommend saving 6 months, 12 months. It's hard to find even at the end of the month. >> Tomorrow will be difficult. >> Yes. But if we have cash now, we should do it, right, professor? Not to rush into investing or buying any assets anywhere. You save first. >> And be frugal. When it comes to investment, I don't forbid it, but I disagree with the current investment methods of people. In fact, I've been in the capital market for almost 20 years, and I see that we invest like buying lottery tickets. That is, investing today must yield money today, or we invest like going to a casino. But we don't invest in the meaning that I understand, which is to put money down and wait for the right time, whether there is a crisis and we buy things cheap, or it's a new global trend. >> And wait for the stock price to fall to the absolute bottom. Not when we talk about investment, it becomes like going to a casino, like playing the lottery. So, when we use the word "investment," it becomes a bit sensitive in the sense of not being the same. >> So, what is the correct definition of investment according to your understanding, professor? >> Yes, it's like putting money to buy assets that are low in price during a crisis or at the current time when they are low and have the opportunity to recover, or something that is a global trend. We can go there, but it's not that it's a global trend, but a company worth 5 trillion, Khun Guitar, will it easily become 8 trillion? >> Yes. >> But if we find companies worth 1-2 billion dollars, and they go up to tens of billions, that's easier, right? >> Yes. That's the side of >> the stock market. >> Thailand's economic crisis. Now, Thailand is facing a crisis within a crisis. We have a conflict with Cambodia. >> Yes. >> This year. And the point you told us earlier is that this is also a strategic point in the Indo-Pacific for major powers. How are the current conflicts linked, and how much do they have implications for the global system's changes, professor? >> We are already a key piece on the world's chessboard. Because we see interference from neighboring countries, from major powers, and the intervention of major powers, and the indifference of major powers that benefit and try to make themselves useful. And all these movements, both within and outside the country, through media, through individuals, through anything, are all part of the same thing. So we can clearly observe that everything is part of the same thing. Therefore, it is a process to create conflict in this world. And that conflict will lead to severe conflict within countries, not just in Thailand. So, in the next, let's say, 5 months, we will be very busy with political matters, which ultimately won't solve anything but will create more problems. After that, it takes time, at least 5 months, which is 2 quarters. It's not easy; it's half a year. Therefore, in this situation, we are on the world's chessboard, and we are an important piece. So the question is, what will we do? I believe in the potential of the Thai army to manage this conflict and resolve it decisively. And another aspect that I strongly believe in is the leadership of the Thai army, meaning the supreme commander of the Thai army. I believe that he has a clear global perspective, especially with his travels and diplomatic relations, which are like symbols for this country. That's what makes me quite confident in Thailand that we will be able to stand firm during this crisis, unlike during World War II. >> Thank you very much for your perspective, professor. And finally, if there is anything you would like to leave for the viewers, consider it a New Year's gift for those who follow us. We have seen the entire global system changing, crises, wars, conflicts, and Thailand's situation, where we will be in the midst of a storm of crises. But one day, we will get through it. We must be patient for the next 1-2 years. What do you recommend to the Thai people, Thai business people, and Thai investors who are following us, professor? >> Thai people should live without too much fear. 2 years will pass quickly. So, use the term "maintain your liquidity well." Ultimately, whether you have it or not, it will get you through. As for business people, they must look at the global transformation process and place themselves in opportunities. We built the country from OEM, from experimentation. We don't have our own innovation, so it's not easy. But how can we jump on these OEMs? If China can do it, right? Like we sell tea, but suddenly China makes tea shops and becomes a global brand. >> Why don't we make our tea a global brand? >> Sometimes it's simple, but we don't think about making it bigger, or using communication tools to reach different countries. Therefore, we need to think about it, we need to do a lot of business modeling, and we need to make bold decisions. And don't spend extravagantly. This is a period of major global change, and it will take a long time. What is the bad thing about this journey is that liquidity in the system will worsen continuously. So, we must prepare to deal with this well. >> Finally, what about investors, professor? >> For investors, this period will be a huge opportunity, once in 100 years. And if we get through these 10 years, this opportunity will not come back like this again. As I said, think with a multi-asset perspective and see it. That is a significant opportunity that has never existed before, and it is right in front of us. >> Thank you very much for reflecting the world to us today, professor. Thank you very much, professor. >> Goodbye.