Transcription
And hello to everyone and welcome to Vision Crypto on this Thursday, October 30, 2025, with a map that is rather red, and yet, here we are, look here, the rate cut. So we did have the 25 basis point cut on the rates. So that's what the market had priced in. Look, if I put it here, it was indeed the forecast here. So we did get this 4%. Now, what was the market's reaction? Well, we had precisely this famous "Sell the News" that I was talking to you about. We can go and see it right away. Look at our friend BTC. And what did we do? Boom! We went to look for lower lows. And you see that even now, currently, we are going to look for even lower lows. We could still go lower. And yes, we could go as far as 105,000. We'll go and see that in a few seconds. So, just before that, go here, yesterday morning in the daily, I had shared a trade here. We had entered there at this level. And you see, it was immediately profitable. That's truly what I was playing for, just the rebound. That's why I didn't go for an absolutely enormous RR. Just looking for the rebound. We had this rebound, it was closed in profit, and that's uh perfect. And now, you see that we are now starting to go down a bit more, looking for liquidity. We did go and look for a lot of liquidity, especially with this wick this morning. That's also very positive. Why? Well, because at least, we have hunted a maximum of liquidity. As I was telling you, we can go even lower. There is an interest in going down to here. And moreover, there will be a good correlation, meaning we would come back to this mega long trendline. We would come back here to 105,000. We would capture all the liquidity, and then we could potentially move on. This is a bit of the scheme that I had already drawn here. That is to say, here, I wanted us to go up to capture the liquidity above. We didn't go as high as I thought, but we did go up, and then boom, and we hunted liquidity. And now, I'm waiting for us to possibly go and look for liquidity at the 105,000 level. Know that I have placed a trade at this level, precisely at the 105,000 level, because I think that if we come back here, it will be to potentially move on afterwards. So if we go and look at the liquidity level, look precisely, we did this twice. We captured a lot of liquidity here up to 109,000. And now, with this morning's wick, we have gone to look for a lot of liquidity again, you see. And now we have captured, almost the entirety of the liquidity pocket that was to the south. Now, we can go and look precisely, that's what I was telling you, for all this liquidity here, and we know that we have liquidity up to 105,000, and there is a market interest in going there. Look here, if we go and look up to 105,000 here, well, we recover about 4 billion. So we could come and precisely look for this pocket here. However, what we must keep in mind is that we have gone and looked for the majority of the liquidity, and where there is liquidity now, well, it's to the north. Look here, 20 billion, so 4 billion, let's say 5 billion if we go even lower, 5-6 billion to 20 billion, so we know very well that the market's real interest is to the north. But I'm thinking that we have to make everyone suffer, this "Sell the News," we have to make everyone suffer, so why not go even lower? Like this, you see here, yesterday we were at 39 in the Fear & Greed index, we went down to 34 for today. If we continue to go down, well, we risk quickly entering extreme fear. And so, well, that will necessarily cause a maximum of people to capitulate. We can also see that we have liquidated a lot more longs. Look at this, 811 million in the last 24 hours of liquidations, including 600 million longs liquidated, 200 million shorts, but it's still the longs, of course, that are really getting slaughtered, which is rather positive. Look, it's that the fundings have indeed come back down, they are really very, very low. So it turns out that if we continue like this, we could even go negative. So if we have, firstly, the fundings going negative here, secondly, we go and look for liquidity lower, that is to say at the 105,000-106,000 level where we will capture almost all the liquidity. Thirdly, we have a Fear & Greed index that goes into extreme fear or very close to extreme, well clearly, if we have these three elements, well, I will take a long. Why? Because everything will be in place to potentially move strongly upwards. Knowing that, in addition, we still have good news and good news that is going to arrive. Look, we'll go and see them right away. It's very, very positive, and at the end, we'll also look at the inflows or outflows on the ETFs. So, firstly, we had China buying 180,000 tons of American soybeans. Its first order in months on the eve of the meeting between President Trump and President Xi. So that, indeed, is a real step. That is to say, in short, China has taken a first step towards the United States as a gesture of good faith, and today, well, look, President Trump is officially meeting President Xi to discuss an agreement. So potentially, we will also have an agreement very soon. I told you that everything would go more or less well, that is to say, we would have the rate cut, that was almost certain. What is not certain for, for example, December 10th, that is to say the next rate cut. At least, for the moment, it is not certain. We will come back to that in a second. But we had the rate cut, that's done. Now we have a trade agreement that needs to be made with China. I think it will happen. We saw the goodwill of the Chinese president by buying these 180,000 tons of soybeans from the United States. And of course, what will there be? The end of the shutdown. And there, we have almost everything to move on. Of course, currently, we are doing what I had indicated to you. So to prepare you not to panic, that is to say, the "Sell the News." We are going to look for liquidity lower. We got what we wanted, but we are still liquidating a maximum of people, but we still have excellent news arriving. And that's not all. Look, the Federal Reserve will end quantitative tightening. So, you know, that's quantitative tightening. So, so, that too is extremely, extremely positive because it is likely to bring a lot of liquidity to the market, to instill confidence in investors, and so that's from December 1st. Now, will it start on December 1st? No, there can be a delay, but it can also be anticipated by the market. From the moment Jerome Powell said that it would happen on December 1st, the markets can start to anticipate this news. In short, that's extremely positive. Let's say it's even the most positive news that Jerome Powell could have said yesterday. On the other hand, indeed, we can see it here for December 10th, normally it's the next rate cut, the next potential rate cut. And you see, we are only at 56% probability of a rate cut. Well, personally, I think there will be a rate cut. As I told you, the banks are in difficulty. They need to help the banks, and the best lever to help the banks is to lower rates, and so they need to continue to lower rates. So, so, I think that will happen. So really, no worries, and so we have almost everything in place to explode upwards. For now, we are clearly making everyone suffer, as I told you. We might make everyone suffer even more if we continue to dump a little lower. And then it will be for what? It will be to go and potentially make the last big, big bullish phase. And that will feel really good. Now, regarding ETFs, we have had significant outflows on BTC, however. Look, 470 million. That is to say, in short, the last four days here where we had inflows, meaning entries, well, we erased them with just yesterday's day. We took everything out entirely on Ethereum. Well, it's the same, we had much less significant outflows, but we still had 81 million in outflows. So that's not great. I would have preferred to have inflows. Once again, we could have this weekend where we are really in a bad way, where we are looking for lower lows. In any case, I had prepared myself for this scenario. If you still have liquidity, well, on the other hand, this is potentially the time to reload. Even though, of course, this is not investment advice, but personally, that's what I'm doing because I truly believe that this will potentially be the last big drop. So, once again, we can go a little lower, but I think we will very quickly, starting next week, see green colors again and move very, very strongly upwards. That's it, team, once again, we will have to be patient. I had warned you that we risked having a "Sell the News." Now, everything needs to be in place. As I indicated. The shutdown needs to end. The trade agreement with China. The rate cut, we've already had it, very positive. We had the excellent news with the Fed ending quantitative tightening on December 1st. We also had companies like Google or Nvidia that exploded their figures. So, in short, so everything is still ultra positive, but we are liquidating precisely to scare as many people as possible and to get everyone off the train, as usual. Team, I'll leave you with that. We will see how the market evolves, and I'll see you tomorrow in the daily, and above all, above all, stay curious. Ciao!