Transcription
In this video, we are breaking down the seven running backs you need to be trading for right now in fantasy football before your trade deadline hits. It is a very important time of the year. This exact week is normally when we see playoff teams separate themselves for the people who are going to be competing in the toilet bowl.
Now, I want to start by talking about a veteran running back that I'm actively trying to acquire in multiple fantasy leagues right now. And it's Aaron Jones of the Minnesota Vikings because we've now seen him in back-to-back games despite suffering a shoulder injury a week ago produce really good numbers and see solid usage.
Now, this past week, you look at it, you get nine carries for 47 yards, over four yards, over five yards per carry, he scores a touchdown. You're going to look at that and say, "Only nine carries? That's not great." Well, the Vikings fell behind in this game. JJ McCarthy outside of the first drive of the game really didn't look all that great. So, they played from behind. They weren't able to run the ball. Instead, they had to pass the ball a lot, which actually ended up benefiting Aaron Jones because he saw more snaps. Jordan Mason came off the field more as somebody who's not known as a pass-catching running back. And Aaron Jones saw six targets, caught three of them for 22 yards. Adds an extra five and a half or so fantasy points in your PPR formats.
Now, what did this break down to in terms of his overall usage in this game? Well, for the second straight game since returning from a hamstring injury, he saw solid usage. 72% of the snaps, 69% of the backfield carries, 63% of the routes run. We knew coming into the season that Aaron Jones was the better pass-catching running back in this backfield between him and Jordan Mason. And if this Vikings offense is not going to look as that great, and if the defense isn't going to be as good as expected, well, Jones is going to just see a lot of snaps in trailing game scripts.
But even if you take out the trailing game scripts, we now have a sample of when Aaron Jones is healthy this year with Jordan Mason in about four games or so that Jones has been the lead back. He's averaging 13 fantasy points and 78 total yards per game. When he starts and finishes a game this year, he has been the clear RB1 ahead of Jordan Mason. And this past week, Aaron Jones, he saw the goal-line carries. He saw 100% of the two-minute offense snaps. He's basically getting those premium overall touches and opportunities at the running back position for fantasy football. And meanwhile, during that stretch of games, by the way, that I talked about where Aaron Jones was the guy in those four starts. During that stretch of games, Jordan Mason is only averaging five fantasy points per game. So, you're getting Aaron Jones having about 13 fantasy points per game when healthy and out there this year. Jordan Mason only five. He's not getting receptions. He's not getting red zone usage lately. And now he's seeing less overall snaps.
And really, this shouldn't surprise us. Like we literally just have a sample of last year, albeit he was a year younger and not coming off of a hamstring injury that he suffered this year, but Aaron Jones had 600 rushing yards. He had over 400 receiving yards. I mentioned this earlier in the week in a video, but he was literally like the quietest 1500 total yards, seven touchdown season you'll ever see coming into this year. I get it. He deals with injuries. He literally was just dealing with a shoulder injury about 5 to 7 days ago in practice. But I think all of these things, his age, him coming off of injuries, him continuing to battle injuries and play through them is a reason why you could probably get him at a cheaper price point than he should be right now. If we redrafted today for the rest of the season, I'd feel pretty confident about Aaron Jones being an RB2, a top 20 or so running back in fantasy.
But there's a world where a lot of people probably remember Jordan Mason having those nice games earlier in the season. If we go over to what his game logs were looking like when Aaron Jones was missing time, you saw a couple of really big games. One overseas where he had 116 yards, multiple touchdowns, 23 fantasy points. He had 56 yards in a touchdown, followed it up with 57 yards in a touchdown. Like you're talking about three out of those four weeks. Jordan Mason was easily an RB2. Definitely a flex option for you in your fantasy lineups. So maybe he's still holding some of that shine that he just had not even a month ago. This is a good time to buy low on Aaron Jones because of these reasons. And the upcoming schedule doesn't hurt either. I mean, this week specifically, he's facing the Bears. Then it gets a couple of tougher matchups. But look at this. Heading into the fantasy postseason, home against a terrible Commanders and banged-up defense. And then he gets the Cowboys and the Giants. the two easiest defenses right up there with the Bengals I would say. So those are the three total in terms of run defenses to face. If Aaron Jones, and this might be a big if, is healthy come fantasy postseason, the Cowboys and the Giants, that might win you some matchup.
Here's the beautiful thing about it. You can get Aaron Jones as of this recording, these are trades made in the last 12 or so hours. Khalil Shakur straight up. Alec Pierce has been playing great. I mean, I I'm not against it if you want to hold on to Aaron or Alec Pierce instead, but Pierce is now on his buy. I lean Aaron Jones the RB there. Romeo Doubs has been playing great. He got banged up this last game. I still lean Aaron Jones there between Aaron Jones and Michael Pittman. I'll take Aaron Jones. Aaron Jones and Rachaad White. Aaron Jones. Aaron Jones and T.J. Hockenson. That's a little bit closer. But I'll take Aaron Jones assuming you need the running back help right now. This is a guy who albeit a shaky offense is just another reason why his price point is cheap right now.
When he's been out there, he's been productive. And obviously similar things could be said for Rachaad White. When he's been out there, he's been highly productive. And lately, he's just basically been the lead back for this Panthers team. I mean, even in his quieter games, he's still seeing a whopping 18 carries, 53 yards, and a touchdown. Oh, yeah. Let's add three catches for 10 yards as well just to get you an extra four points or so. In his quieter games, like he had this past week against the New Orleans Saints, he's still scoring 14 fantasy points. He's still seeing 23 touches in this game. An obvious workhorse back the last two weeks for the Carolina Panthers. In fact, he's basically now had four starts the last two weeks since he regained the backfield and the two weeks when Chuba Hubbard was out. In those four starts, Hubbard is averaging 26 fantasy points on 24 carries and 143 rushing yards. When you add in his receiving yards, he's averaging over 160 total yards per game as a starter. And it is no longer a split backfield these last two weeks. Oh no, not at all with Chuba Hubbard because during this time, what you're basically seeing right now is Chuba Hubbard being a clear backup running back. Rachaad White during this stretch of games. You can see right here, he just saw 86% of the backfield carries this past week and a 13% target share in week 10 on 79% of the snaps according to the late round QBs JJ Zacharias. And in week nine, 83% of the backfield rush share, 16% target share, 74% of the snaps. Back-to-back weeks, like in week nine, Chuba Hubbard got a little bit banged up. There was some questions, is that the reason why? Not the case. Week 10, Hubbard was a full go off the final injury report and Rachaad was still the lead back.
Now, all your friends are going to know that Rachaad White put up like a historic two-week stretch when Chuba Hubbard was out that he's been great this year. You're not going to be able to buy low on Rachaad White, but in terms of his game logs, 14 fantasy point day is like his lowest in a start this year. even though he is quietly seeing the type of usage that RB1 overall player Jonathan Taylor is seeing. Now, I'm not going to say he's producing like Jonathan Taylor, although in three out of his four starts, he basically has averaging like almost 200 total yards per game. But I'm talking about this right here. I'm talking about the snap share at 84% and more importantly, the opportunity share at 82%. Rachaad White these last two weeks is seeing over an 80% opportunity share. That would be up there around Jonathan Taylor as like a top two to three player in the league right now. I would say that in terms of trademarks, Jonathan Taylor is untouchable in any fantasy league. Rachaad White, you could probably get him even though he's seeing a similar role and when he's had that role for the most part, has actually produced elite numbers pretty similar to Taylor in some weeks. So, it's not going to be cheap, but I think it's cheaper than it should be. Like, people are trading right now. D'Andre Smith one for one for Rachaad White. Insane. Tyreek Hill one for one for Rachaad White. Heck, even Justin Jefferson you could probably talk yourself into. It's not the same Justin Jefferson with JJ McCarthy out there. If we redrafted today for the rest of the season, Rachaad White's probably like a third round pick. Justin Jefferson maybe a late second round pick, right? So, it's pretty close, closer than you would expect. Rachaad White and A.J. Brown. Give me Rachaad White. George Pickens and Rachaad White. At this point, I'm probably leaning Rachaad White as well. So, lots of trades that you can get right now for Rachaad White.
But, I want to actually talk about a guy I think you should be trading away. And that is the Chargers running back, second-year player Kamari Vildor, the former sixth-round pick, because he just had the perfect game script and he paid off for you in fantasy if you started him on Sunday night against the Steelers. A whopping 25 carries just a week after it looked like he was losing work and a lot of his role to Jared Patterson. Only one carry for Jared Patterson in this game. Kamari Vildor sees 95 rushing yards in the game. He ends up finding the end zone. He also catches the ball for 13 yards. So just like that, Kamari Vildor comes out. He has over 100 total yards, 25 plus touches. He looks like the guy again. But honestly, this is the exact reason why you want to sell him. The situation couldn't have gotten any better last week. He put up fantasy production, but now he has a game in week 11, but then he goes on bye in week 12. And after week 12, there's a chance, although not guaranteed, that Amariyon Hampton, he was spotted at practice. He's trending towards a return from an ankle injury in week 13 after the Chargers' bye. If that's true, it means you have literally one more week of Kamari Vildor.
So, I get it. He played 94% of the snaps. He saw 89% of the rush attempts. He looked solid out there for like the third time out of his five starts this year. He's looked good and been a very valuable piece to your lineup. So, when you've played him, but there's a good chance you're only getting one more game out of him as a starter this upcoming week. Now, it's probably a good time to try and trade because when Amariyon Hampton comes back, it might take him a little bit of time to settle in off of a serious injury. But let's not forget in his final three games on the left side of the screen right here according to RotoViz game split tool he was averaging over 21 fantasy points per game between his rush attempts or he's seeing about 14 carries per game rushing yards 80 per game he was seeing about 100 total yards when you factor in his receiving production there's a reason why he was a first-round pick I get it that Kamari Vildor has been solid maybe in a game or two until Amariyon Hampton is ramped back up Kamari Vildor will be sprinkled in but he won't have anywhere near the role that he saw this past week of like 26 touches so when you look at the matchup this week against the Jaguars yeah sure you probably will get a decent game out of him or at least a game where the Chargers should be playing with a lead. They should be favorites in that game. So maybe Kamari Vildor gets another 16 to 20 plus touches and that's great and you want to hold him this week and then try and trade him. But I think right now is where you actually have some leverage. You can say, "Hey," you could be truthful and be like, "Yeah, Amariyon Hampton's going to come back maybe in week 13, but maybe not. Maybe it's week 14. At bare minimum, you'll get at least another start this week where Kamari Vildor can help you." If you wait until after this week, you're basically just selling fool's gold. And you could get a pretty nice return right now. I mean, Trey Benson one for one is the perfect deal. Trey Benson might be returning right now in rest of season. Trey Benson is probably going to be grading out as a top 20 running back once he's back. Kamari Vildor is probably going to be grading out as a bench player in most weeks if not a drop. Drake May one for one's amazing. Somebody traded Rachaad White one for one. I mean that's just crazy. If you scroll down a little bit here, I'd even take some chances on guys like Jakobi Myers who are on a new team who are going to be ramping up this week. We'll see what happens with his role after he led the team in receiving for the Jaguars last week in his first game with them. So Kamari Vildor, perfect player to trade right now before before his his actual run of usage ends.
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The next guy I want to talk about is coming out of his bye week and that is Javonte Williams. And right before Javonte Williams' bye week, he had arguably his worst fantasy day of the season. Now, he had 15 carries for 83 yards. Five and a half yards per carry is great, but he ended up fumbling. He didn't get in the end zone. When you look at his reception totals, just one catch for zero yards. So, you're looking at after you take away the negative points, one or two depending on your league for fumbles. I mean, Javonte Williams only got you seven or eight fantasy points at best last week or the week before his bye. But you have to zoom out before that game in week nine and look at the first eight weeks of the season that show the true story of who Javonte Williams has been.
Because if you do that over here on the left side of the screen, the first eight games of the season, he was averaging 18.8 points per game, three receptions and 18 and a half carries per game. So 18 and a half opportunities per game, top 10 amongst running backs. And you're getting a guy averaging over 18 fantasy points, nearly 19 PPR points per game, top 10, actually top eight amongst running backs as well. So this has been a really good player, obviously for fantasy, but we just haven't seen it in a little while. It's been almost a month now because he had the stinker in week nine. He was on bye in week 10. Now we're in week 11. The last time you saw him producing was all the way back in week eight. But I'm here just to remind you that the role is still great. Top 10 in snap share this year. 75% 74% of his backfield opportunities. And that might only be getting stronger because we know Miles Sanders is injured. Jalen Brooks was a healthy scratch the last time we saw him. Who knows if they trust him. It looks like right now Phillip Lindsay might be the backup. And if Phillip Lindsay is the backup running back in Dallas, it means Javonte is just going to keep getting loaded with nearly 20 opportunities per game.
He's also been very efficient this season. I mean, if you want to look at this tweet from Jacob Gibbs, Javonte Williams leads the NFL in yards after contact per rush attempt. If you want to look at his efficiency right now, he ranks sixth in yards created. He's basically top 10 in like all these yards per touch, nearly five yards per touch. He's averaging breakaway runs as well. Like, whatever you look at right now, he's been way more explosive than anybody would have thought. Breakaway runs of 15 plus yards. He has eight that is sixth best amongst running backs so far. He's seeing the red zone usage. He's seeing all the opportunities. Everything has been really good for Javonte. He's also a top five PFF rusher so far this year. and yards per carry yardage after contact uh so far through this point in the season 10 weeks in. So, this is just a reminder that this guy is coming out of his bye week. He had a bad game before that. So, maybe some of that recency bias as if he was coming off of a 20-point performance, it's gone now. It's been three or four weeks or so. So, you might be able to get him for a cheaper price point. And he also has a great matchup on Monday night against the Raiders coming out of the bye heading into the fantasy postseason. It's going to be some softer matchups against the Chargers defense that depending depending on how you play them and I think that the Cowboys set up nicely here can be hit or miss. And then the rest of the fantasy postseason, depending on your league, Commanders in the Championship game or Giants, depending on if you play in week 17 or 18, it's a pretty solid rest of season schedule. And even if you have some tougher matchups in there, like against the Chiefs, like against the Lions, that's where they can play from behind and Javonte can maybe pick up those three or four receptions.
So the trades happening right now, one for one, Bucky Irving for Javonte, give me Javonte, Tyler Higbee for Javonte, give me Javonte. Javonte and A.J. Brown, that's closer, but I'll take Javonte. I think it's a better offense, or at least an offense that should run more plays, have more points, get to the red zone more often. I want Javonte over all these guys. Javonte over A.J. Brown. Javonte over Lamar Jackson for me might seem crazy. Kind of depends on what the quarterback situation is. If you traded away Lamar Jackson and like Tua Tagovailoa the best available guy on your waivers, then probably don't trade away Lamar Jackson. But if you just have any type of depth on the waiver wire or your roster, I'd rather the running back who I would consider a top 12 back rest of season.
Next up, I want to talk about Jaylen Warren because Jaylen Warren on that Sunday night game, it was a disgusting game for Aaron Rodgers for the Steelers offense. But Warren actually, despite it being pretty gross, looked good. 14 carries for 70 yards, 5 yards per carry. More importantly, the only other running back to see a carry in this game was not Kenneth Gainwell. Was Caleb Johnson, the rookie, who had just two. And then Warren wasn't done. He had two catches for 21 yards. So, in this game, he turns 16 total touches into over 90 yards. But the story for Warren all year long is he's just not finding the end zone. He had 90 plus yards in this game. He had a couple of catches. If he finds the end zone, it's a 17 to 18 point day. That didn't happen. So, he had 11 fantasy points, which allows you to buy somewhat low on him. And he's coming off of yet again another strong usage game. Like when you look at the overall snap count, like 52% of the snaps, okay, they were playing from behind. Kenneth Gainwell was on the field um in some in trailing game scripts overall. But look at everything else. The rush attempts, 88% of the backfield carries, just 0% for Kenneth Gainwell. Gainwell has 74% of the routes run specifically because he was on the field in the two-minute offense and the long down and distance. Hopefully that's just like a one-week thing. We would like to see Jaylen Warren on the field in the two-minute offense. Check down opportunities for the running back, especially from Aaron Rodgers who does not want to get through his progressions. Wants to get the ball out quick and avoid hits. But overall, the opportunities have looked good lately. A 64% opportunity share for Jaylen Warren is probably way higher than people expected back in August when we would we didn't even know if he was going to be seeing half the opportunities in this backfield, let alone 64% of them. So, he's looked really good so far right now. The red zone touches have been there. He's seen 22. The upcoming schedule looks great for him. Matchup this week against the Bengals, the best matchup so far for running backs. Then the Bears is a top five matchup. And then you're going to get also get soft matchups heading into the fantasy postseason against the Ravens, against the Steelers. If we look at potentially championship week in the fantasy playoffs, you're going to have a matchup um against the Ravens or Browns depending on your league. So, a lot of juicy matchups upcoming for Jaylen Warren, who quietly off of this somewhat down game, even though he had 90 total yards and a couple of receptions, is in a boom situation. Even though he's currently on pace to have 1000 total yards this year, and he's averaging nearly 14 fantasy points per game despite only scoring two times this year. If he continues to see this much opportunities, 15 to 17 plus per game, the Steelers offense is good enough to get to the red zone and for Warren to eventually get more touchdowns.
Now, we're talking about running backs in this video, but if you want to see my number one trade target at every single position for this week right now, with the ultimate goal of you improving your team before your trade deadline and ultimately winning more matchups and your league, you can check it out totally free. The number one trade target at every position with the link in the description below or by typing typing in topfantasytrades.com. Topfantasytrades.com will take you to this page. You just enter your email and give it a couple of minutes in your inbox. It will pop up. If it doesn't, well, then check your spam and promotional folders after like three to five minutes. And that will get you the asset, the number one trade target for each position so you can improve your team and ultimately win your fantasy league.
Next up, we got to talk about Rachaad White. And it might feel weird to talk about Rachaad White off of a very quiet game where on Thursday Night Football, probably the worst football game I've watched all year against the Raiders, although Monday Night Eagles Packers was pretty close until the end. You could see Rachaad White only four carries for nine yards. So why is Rachaad White even top of mind? He added two catches for nine yards in this game. That again was a very boring game overall. And at the end of the day, six overall touches, 15 yards. Why is Rachaad White, somebody now a trade for even though the last couple of weeks you were calling him a sell and trade away? Well, that is the case. Let's actually address that first. Before this game, the previous three games, Rachaad White was looking good. 16 fantasy points per game compared to just seven fantasy points per game. And we broke this down. He was seeing the exact same opportunities per game. About seven opportunities per game, just like this past week where he saw seven opportunities. The reason why I called him a sell high was because the dude was scoring like four touchdowns in three games, unlimited touches. It wasn't sustainable. If you can get something better for him, you should have. But now it's a whole new development. Two weeks ago, I did not know and predict the future that in week 10 J.K. Dobbins was going to suffer a foot injury that as of this recording he's seeking a second opinion on. You don't go for a second opinion on an injury unless you don't like what you got from the first opinion. If the doctor said all looks good, you'll be back in a week or you won't miss any time. You're not going to get a second opinion. So, I don't know the answer as of right now. Maybe by the time you're watching this, we'll have an update. But, there's a decent chance that J.K. Dobbins misses time. Maybe he goes on IR. Maybe it's a mid-foot sprain. Hopefully not. That's something that potentially some other running backs have been dealing with and they're missing weeks upon weeks upon weeks. based on this information right now and the fact that public like national reporters haven't been hyping it up so much yet there's a window where maybe you can buy lower on Rachaad White because if and when and it's currently seeming like when J.K. Dobbins injury is announced and whether he's missing one two or more weeks after that it's just going to be Rachaad White in this backfield Tyler Badie who for some reason Sean Payton doesn't like to get involved in there um at that point there's really nobody left like Jamil McLaughlin Devon's on the practice squad all these smaller running backs and Rachaad White is not a massive running back but compared to these guys who are like 160 170 180 lbs. He is a bigger running back. He's also a running back that they spent a second-round pick on. Serious draft capital. A running back who in college was a beast. So much so that in his final two years of college, he was averaging or he was putting up 1400 yards, nearly 1,600 rushing yards, averaging over 6.3 yards per carry every single year of college as a workhorse with 226 232 carries his final two years. Also caught the ball. Had almost 1,800 total yards last season in college. So good running back. If J.K. Dobbins was to miss time, I think Rachaad White's role expands from being mostly just like this guy who sees a couple of carries and is used in the passing game to somebody who might be able to see right away 15 plus touches and that's somebody you want to trade for. Even if news comes out about J.K. Dobbins injury, I do think it's still at least worth throwing some trades out there. I mean look at these deals happening right now. Rhamondre Stevenson, Jakobi Meyers one for one for Rachaad White, Rachaad White. I'd be taking all these deals. Now deals I wouldn't be taking are D'Andre Swift probably not Travis Etienne at this point but there's a lot of deals out there. I mean especially Jakobi Meyers he's basically like a waiver wire player at this point. Rhamondre Stevenson, he's practicing limited fashion. I don't know if he'll play on Thursday night, but it seems like he's getting closer to returning. Either way though, I'd rather the upside of White, assuming J.K. Dobbins injury is serious. He's getting a second opinion. So, I think we could read between the lines and think he's probably going to miss at least a week or two.
Now, let's talk about Derrick Henry, who I think is like maybe the most obvious buy-low candidate, at least maybe I'm wrong on that, but I I would consider a lot of people to think that he is a buy-low candidate. This past week, 20 carries, 75 yards, he doesn't score a touchdown in this game. So, you're walking away from this game after he catches three balls for nine yards, which kind of bails you out in some ways. and you're getting 11 and a half fantasy points out of Derrick Henry. The guy is averaging now, depending on your format, less than 13 fantasy points per game, which if you spent, and you likely did, a second-round pick on him, that's not cutting it. Now, of course, there's a lot of context that has to be put into that because Lamar Jackson missed a large stretch of games. And during that time, the Ravens offense stunk. They played from behind. Their defense was also hurt. Like, it was just tough for a a run-first, not pass-catching running back Derrick Henry to put up numbers. And it was also probably tough this past weekend to see Justice Hill vulture a goal-line touchdown from Derrick Henry as well. So, that's not going to make whoever had Derrick Henry starting in that game happier by any means. But, if we do zoom out a little bit and we look at the four games this year when Lamar Jackson has been healthy and Derrick Henry's out there, Henry is averaging 21 carries, 97 rushing yards, and nearly 15 fantasy points per game, which would put him right on pace to be a top 12 running back in RB1, which is around where you probably drafted him in the mid or late second round this year.
It should also be mentioned that this past week he had a tougher matchup against the Vikings who allowed the 11th fewest rushing yards per game. Just 125 rushing yards per game in that one. So, it was a tougher one. The touchdowns are going to come though because it does look like with Lamar Jackson out there, this Ravens team looks a lot better. They scored like four touchdowns pretty quickly on Thursday Night Football and his return. Then this past week, they go out there, they scored 27 points. With Lamar Jackson active this year, this Ravens offense is averaging like 30 points per game. If that keeps up, if Lamar remains healthy, you're going to get better weeks out of Derrick Henry, especially with this upcoming schedule. Like the matchup against the Browns isn't great. But then at home against the Jets, awesome. Two matchups against the Bengals is where you might get a 30-plus point Derrick Henry game in one or both of those contests. Matchup at home against the Patriots. The fact that they're at home, I think it'll be a fine game script. Matchup at home against the Steelers as well. So, I do think that probably like five out of these next six weeks, Derrick Henry should be in neutral to positive game scripts to where he's seeing minimum 16 upwards of 25-plus carries. And that's where you really want him, especially later in the season, later in those games in the colder weather when Derrick Henry just starts to pick apart defenses in the second half of games. So, I would consider him a buy-low right now. This is a workhorse that you're getting on. Probably a top five offense if not higher, top three, top two offense with Lamar Jackson, healthy. And I would say he's just set up perfectly to explode late in the season and you can get him pretty cheap right now. One for one trades with George Pickens, Chase Brown. I mean, Jordan Mason and Tutu Atwell are just trolls. I think that's probably just some sort of junk trade. Quentin Johnston one for one, Bucky Irving one for one. I want Derrick Henry over all of these guys right now. Rest of season, he's somebody that I would consider one of the best buy-low candidates for your playoff stretch and into the fantasy postseason.
So, these are the running backs you should trade for before it's too late and before your trade deadline. A wide receiver version of this video will be up tomorrow right here. But until then, you can check out the waiver wires, the players that you should add on your waiver wire. Even if your waivers already ran Tuesday heading into Wednesday, you might want to check this out. I think it's still going to help you identify a couple of other guys who are worth stashing for your fantasy postseason.