Transcription
[music] Hey folks, welcome to verified investing.com. My name is Gareth Soloway here with a deep dive into the precious metals, gold and silver mainly. We'll look at GDX as well as again, we are seeing the price of silver now only a $1.50 50 away from the target that I gave you when we were north of $100 on silver. I said it's going back to 54. If it breaks 54, it's going to 50. If it breaks 50, 46. My plan here, and I'm giving you my game plan. My game plan is to buy a little bit at a pierce of 54, add at 50, and add at 46, building a core position, essentially dollar cost averaging, as there are multiple major levels down there. Then I'll look for at least a 20 maybe 30% bounce off of that level on silver sending us back up. We'll show you or I'll show you where I expect the bounce to come in and how high it will go.
We'll look at gold as well. Gold is trying to break key support. If it does, 35 to 3600 is very likely. Again, I'll probably start a little higher than that just because I want to get some skin in the game. But again, you have to understand how the markets work here. When everyone is bullish, the top is probably being formed. Now, as we see people starting to get panicky over the precious metals, that's where we can see an actual bottom, a buyable bottom come into play. So, I'm getting excited here, folks. I mean, this is what I love is the levels, how the charts guide us. It's why I teach how to read the charts because it's not perfect, but at least it makes me have the probabilities and odds in my favor.
Let's go into the silver chart here, guys. Take a look. Here's your silver chart again. Notice on the chart breaking it down. I want to show you this. This was the signal when I went out and called that high pivot on silver. It actually did go higher after my alert. But this is what we call a topping tail. A topping tail is a long wick on top with a close in the lower 25% from the low of the candle to the high of the candle. Right? So closed in the lower 25. Now, the way topping tails work in technical analysis is that as you rally up, you can go above that high of the tail as long as you don't get a daily close above that high. So, the high here was 117.70 or so. Notice we went above that touching 120 or so on silver, but it never had a daily close. Therefore, the structure of that as a bearish indicator remained fully intact. And again, so yes, it absolutely went a little bit higher here than what I thought it could do, but it never negated my bare signal. Then we got the massive damage done by the flush. This was a classic bare flag. I said it was going to roll over. Came down, hit double bottom right here. Bounced again. We came up, we created this to create our wedge pattern structure, and then we came down. Now notice, one hit, two hits, three hits. You almost never break on the first three hits of a trend line. It's usually on the fourth or after. This was your fourth and it broke. And I told you guys it was going lower and it broke to the downside. Then we did a classic retrace and now we're coming down to that level that I said we would come to 54 as first support. Second support, see this little structure here, this little low pullback that becomes second support, which is at $50 right there or a pierce of 50. And then the big level, the big kahoon if it ever gets there. I don't know if it will but would be 46 right here. So again, this is again if we look at this, I start nibbling right here and amazing, amazing, right? I mean, people made so much fun of me, um, you know, when I said, "Hey, I'm not buying till 54," when it was $100, when it was 80, when it was 70, when it was 60. And here we are literally a buck 50 away from that target. It could hit overnight. I'm going to be watching like a hawk. Um, for me, I trade the ETF, so I'll be a buyer of SLV. That will be the key one there. The GLD is one I'll play as well. And we'll look at the GDX as well, because I got to be honest, the miners are getting into a key level that could be very intriguing.
Okay, so getting into this level, target one, target two, target three. Do I think it could go lower than 46? Well, sure. I mean, you know, one thing that I've learned and the market has humbled me infinite amounts of times is that in general, because emotion rules the market in the short term while fundamentals rule it in the long term and technicals guide us generally in the short term, is that because fear can be so pervasive, just like greed, things can go well above where I think they can go and well below. So, you have to be ready for that. You know, anytime I I buy in, if I'm going to buy a position at 54, then at 50, then at 46, I'll even leave a chunk that I can add if it goes below there. Now, it wouldn't be a huge chunk at that point, but nonetheless, I think again, um, in this range, if you look at where price has come back to, it makes a lot of sense. In fact, you can do other metrics, too. Like, if we look at this low, which was our 2025 low on silver, it was $28, right? So, one of the ways we can do this is we do a Fibonacci retrace. We take our fib, we draw it up here, and what do you guys notice? Where's where's the 786 fib? Right smack in the middle of these lower two levels, right? So, that gives a little extra credence about where we could pull back to. And remember, the way I work too is that let's just say I buy here, here, and here. And that's my average. My average will be approximately around 50 bucks. If it bounces back to 64, which is where I think that'll you'll get a bounce, I'll at least take off half the position. And then if it breaks out, great. I'll ride the rest up and I can, you know, back to here. But if it goes to 64 and gets rejected and comes back to 50, I can all read to that position. Right? So, this is all about money management. The biggest thing an investor or trader needs is the ability to think logically and not let emotion take over. As soon as you let emotion take over, you've lost. Like the market will feed off your emotion. It's like chum in the water for sharks, right? The the institutional analysts, the money managers, all of those players are just like, "Oh, blood in the water." You know, they'll take advantage of every nuance. They'll push it to one extreme, they'll push it to the other extreme, whipping you out. We've all experienced that. I mean, I I certainly have experienced that, right? But the idea is if you can get logical and you have your your game plan laid out like, "Okay, I'm going to I'm going to divide my amount that I want in silver into four pieces." Four pieces. Now, you might say, "Well, why four? You're only mentioning three." Well, let me explain. Because my first one's at 54, then 50, then 46, and then I leave that last one in case price flushes even more. Now, if it doesn't, okay, well, then I have a great average and I'm in the money very quickly, and it's great. But I always plan for the inevitable time when the markets surprise, and they will. They surprise to the upside, they surprise to the downside. Again, lots of interesting things.
All right, let's go to gold real quick here, guys. See where gold is trading. Gold is getting slammed to the downside. It is now below 4,000 at 39.80. Again, this has been a structure I've been following right here. In fact, I played longs on gold off of this level. I'm not playing one anymore because I am concerned that it's going to break this level. Now, if we can break here, then it's a breakout, but until we do, I'm favoring the downside. Where is a first level where I might nibble a little bit? This low pivot right here around 38.85. Again, I do think it can go lower than that, and I do think it most likely will. Maybe as low as 34.50 here. But again, that would be maybe a nibble opportunity for me there. There's another little level here at 37.75. There's another structural level at 36.35. And then obviously this 35, 34.50 level right here. So the idea is this now becomes my accumulation zone. Right? So again, it's all about having a game plan. What is your game plan? And your game plan doesn't have to be my game plan. Do a game plan that fits you. But the idea is is that this becomes my accumulation zone. Once we get below this level, anywhere in here, I'll just divide up the amount that I want to dollar cost average in on my gold trade with the thesis that I love it long term with an upside target. And by the way, I will be releasing by Friday. So, tomorrow at some point tomorrow, I'm going to be releasing a massive research report that is so in-depth on gold, it should blow you away. It's better than any research report in my humble opinion that any institution has put out. I'm also I also created a gold calculator which allows you to put your inputs in to decide or and it'll tell you what years gold is going to top out it or when the next bull market will happen and where gold will go on that next bull market. Mine is telling me uh 2031 to 2033 uh with a top of around 13,000. That'll be the next peak in gold. Now, some of you guys will say, "Oh my goodness, that's way too high." Others will say, "Oh my goodness, it's going to happen a lot sooner." That's the beauty of it. That's what trading and investing is all about. You got to have lots of different opinions. That's what creates a market.
All right, guys. So, um, let's go to a couple other charts here, but great selloff on gold here. Let's look at the GDX real quick. Um, GDX here is breaking down. I am intrigued. So, this is my ultimate downside maximum on GDX down to about 56, 57. Um, I do think it's worthwhile for a swing trade to play it right here at 68, which is not far away. Pivot low right there. In fact, if we drag that out, look at that little pivot low right there. So, that looks good on GDX. And then Pneumont Mining. Look at the Pumont bare flag breakdown. This tells me again, this is not a good chart on Pneumont Mining. It's probably going lower. We're probably looking here at this area around 82 or so. About 82 here, maybe as low as 77. So, I will keep an eye on that. No doubt about it, guys.
But listen, when all said and done, I do want to just mention real quick, guys. Don't forget, Gareth's Top Squad is my premium YouTube. 10 bucks a month, like a Allocart uh Starbucks coffee cost, and you get discount codes every weekend. I'm giving out a discount code for verified investing, 20% off this, 20% off that. You get that automatically as being part of that. And then I give you at least one, maybe two premium videos just for the Gareth Top Squad every week. Uh, and again, it's an awesome value. So, it's it's also a way for you guys to support me and just support what I'm doing here. A much more technical approach and I do appreciate the kind words, mean the world to me. Um, it keeps me driven, right? It's it's you know, when you when it's it's appreciation type thing, right? So, you know, sometimes, you know, people are like ridiculous and and stuff and then it's like, okay, why do I do this? But then when I see the great comments from a lot of you guys, I'm like, "Oh yeah, that's why I do it because people do appreciate the effort and and the work ethic and the analysis and the insight." So anyways, guys, enough said by me. Have a good rest of your day. I'll talk to you soon.