Transcription
And hello everyone and welcome to Vision Crypto on this Tuesday, October 21, 2025, with a rather mixed map. We're going to see what BTC and Ethereum have done. We're going to look at the on-chain data and, of course, we're going to look at the news. Alright, let's start with our friend BTC. What did we do yesterday? We had a push. So, I'm still in my trade, you see? And so, well, currently, what are we doing? We've just filled. You see the imbalance zone we had here, which we created during this rise. So we could continue to push if there's no bad news. Right away, I'm going to show you something. Look, it's on order flow and it's relatively interesting. You can see that every time here we go into short here, I remind you that the funding rates, as soon as we're in yellow, it means there are more short sellers than long buyers. You see that as soon as we go into yellow, well, we have a tiny dump and then we push to liquidate the shorts precisely. Look here at the funding rates when we went into yellow, you see we had the last little dip here and then boom, we pushed. Then, we went to positive funding rates. And then, we had all this period, it was Saturday, we only ranged and then here, there's no correlation. We had both negative funding rates and positive funding rates, but look here. Then, we had negative funding rates, we had the little dump and then boom, we pumped, we continued to push. Then, what did we do? Negative funding rates here. Even if it's weak, what did we do? Dump here and then boom. So, we pushed and here, you see we're doing exactly the same pattern. So, are we going to do the same thing? You see, we're falling. Funding rates are going negative. So, are we going to do? Boom, we're going back up. Well, it's possible. In addition, you see that we've filled more than 50% of the imbalance zone we had here. So, it's either well, we stop here and we go back to seek the highs here and here, or we're going to go a little lower to seek this imbalance that we have at this level too. In short, it's a small correlation, it doesn't necessarily mean we're going to reproduce the pattern, but I found the correlation rather nice. Let's move on to Ethereum. Well, Ethereum follows BTC, of course, if BTC falls, Ethereum also falls. However, what's interesting about Ethereum, you see, is that here, we've reinforced liquidity to the north. Why? Because we see that with this little wick, we didn't capture the liquidity that was at the top just above this previous high. If I zoom in a little here, we can see it with the mouse. We can see the lines, we didn't go above and so well, that means we've reinforced liquidity above. So in any case, we already know that there's a strong interest in seeking liquidity both on Ethereum and on BTC above. We know we're loaded with liquidity because we've already taken almost all the liquidity to the south. We can see it right away here on the liquidation heatmap. We had captured almost all the liquidity. Of course, we create a little more, but we still have a lot, a lot of liquidity to the north. Look at BTC here, we haven't captured this whole pocket which is absolutely enormous. So here, by the way, we're breathing and we could potentially have a pump today to finally capture this whole liquidity pocket. In any case, that's what I hope for. And as I told you on BTC, here we've filled the imbalance zone and so possibly hop a rebound and finally go back up. This is the scenario I favor, as we know we have a lot of liquidity to the north. So well, what will Ethereum do? Well, if BTC continues to fall, well, it will fall just the same. But if BTC makes its rebound, well, Ethereum will also go to seek liquidity to the north. Perhaps on Ethereum, we'll go a little lower just to capture the liquidity we've left behind. Because if I have to put liquidity pockets, you know, hop. I like to put the little lines, it helps to realize the small liquidity pockets. We have liquidity here, we have liquidity here, we have liquidity here. So we see here that there's an interest in going a little lower, just to capture the liquidity we've left before potentially going back up. In terms of liquidations, we had 400 million in liquidations. It's the shorts that got caught. Although we're rather neck and neck. Look, 206 million shorts liquidated versus 196 million longs liquidated. So, so there's barely 10 million between the two. So it's relatively balanced. And yes, we pumped, we can see it here. We pumped, we liquidated the shorts and now we're correcting. So, of course, we're liquidating the longs. Alright, a quick look at the ETFs and we can see that yesterday, we had outflows of 40.4 million in outflows for the BTC ETF and for our friend Ethereum, we had 145 million in outflows. So for now, we're starting the week with outflows indeed on the BTC ETFs and the Ethereum ETFs. So that's not necessarily good because it can demonstrate a lack of confidence in the market. After all, look, we're still in fear. We're at 33, even if we've recovered well, we're still in fear. So, of course, there's a lack of confidence in the market. Personally, you know I like it when we're in fear because that's generally when we rebound very strongly, leaving behind all the people who think we're going to go even lower and who are waiting to get in a little lower. And so well, clearly, I hope that's exactly what will happen this week. While we're at it, look, we'll look at this right away because it's correlated with fear. And what we can observe is that Polymarket users give Bitcoin a 30% chance of reaching $100,000 in October, but only a 1% chance of exceeding $1,500. And this, well, this perfectly shows you the market's mindset. And look, generally, only a 1% chance that we'll be above $250,000. Only a 3% chance of going above $135,000. Only a 6% chance of $130,000. On the other hand, a 30% chance of falling to $100,000, a 10% chance of falling to $95,000, and a 5% chance of falling to $90,000. That is to say, there are more people who think we're going to reach $90,000 than we're going to reach $135,000. So you can see that there's really this relatively bearish atmosphere, and this is additional data that shows a little bit the state of the market, the mindset of the market, and we can see that people are generally rather bearish. So, well, I thought it was interesting to show you this because personally, the more bearish people are, the more I think we're going to go up. Alright, regarding the news, here are the two pieces of news. President Trump declares that China could pay a tariff of 155% if there is no trade agreement by November 1st. And it's moving relatively fast, we're almost there. Second piece of news, President Trump declares that he will conclude a solid trade agreement with China. So, in any case, that's what he hopes for, but he's always putting more pressure by saying first they'll have 100% tariff, then 135, then 155. In short, he's always putting more pressure. Will he still manage to find an agreement before November 1st? Well, we'll see. In any case, we can't do anything. We can just wait and hope for a positive resolution to this. Also, we have the United States which had, you know, seized 127,000 BTC recently and so well, they've included it in their strategic BTC reserve as I told you. And so, well, of course, it jumped 64% overnight. And so the US government now holds more Bitcoin than any other entity, except for Strategy, of course, which holds more than 600,000 BTC, but there you go, I told you they would put that directly into the strategic reserve. Now, it's done. And so well, it saved them from buying 127,000 BTC, which is equivalent to 14 billion dollars. So, speaking of Strategy, Strategy also bought an additional 8 Bitcoin for about 18.8 million. And so well, Strategy now owns 640,0418 BTC. So the United States is still relatively far from Strategy. And by the way, tell me in the comments, do you think it will be the United States that will get 1 million BTC first, or will it be Strategy that reaches a million first? Yes, Strategy has a big lead currently, but be careful because I think Donald Trump has more than one trick up his sleeve. We are also still awaiting the valuation of US gold stocks. And so, I remind you that this is just an accounting entry, yes, but it would bring billions to the United States. These are billions that they could use, notably to potentially buy BTC. In addition, gold has made ATH after ATH. So in terms of valuation, it will always be worth more. Alright, let's continue with accumulations. We have Bitmin by Tom Lee, who bought an additional 63,539 Etherum, and now their total holdings are worth 13.07 billion dollars. So it's truly enormous, and they continue to buy, buy, buy. Bitmin, the first company, and in any case, I believe it's the entity in general that holds the most Etherum. There you go team, that was all for today's daily. We'll see what the market does. We'll see that tomorrow in the daily. So don't hesitate to click the subscribe button to not miss any news. I personally think we might have a small dip to go get a little more liquidity to the south before potentially going back up. We'll see that again tomorrow. On that, I'll leave you here. I wish you an excellent day. I'll see you tomorrow in the daily, and above all, above all, stay curious. Ciao!