Transcription
Good morning everybody. I hope you're having an amazing Thursday. We're going to start here with Exodus 23:20 which says, "Behold, I send an angel before thee to keep thee in the way and to bring thee into the place which I have prepared."
Have to wonder, is it a foreshadowing of the angel of the Lord or is this another angel? But I do think it is incredible how the closer you follow God, you read his word, you speak with him, you pray, you start to really think about Jesus more and more often and you start to try to change your life and at first it's hard and then it becomes routine or normal and then even in those challenging moments you appeal to Jesus and you say, "What would Jesus do in this moment? Jesus, can you help me?"
And I think that that's that angel, that's that Holy Spirit tapping you on the shoulder and leading you to a place that certainly God has prepared because you probably wouldn't have done the same things, make the same choices, or respond the same way were you walking by yourself. So, thank you, God, for sending an angel to walk with me each day and change the way I am and change the way I respond. I am so much different than I was five or 10 or 15 years ago, 20 years, 25 years ago, certainly. And thank you. And I hope to continue to change and hopefully advance your kingdom with something I'm doing. I don't I don't know exactly what I'm doing on any particular day, but thank you, God, so much. And I'm just going to continue leaning into you and letting you help me because I certainly have enough trouble helping myself.
I wanted to go over here and talk about, of course, the FAQ, which is make good decisions for you. I don't know what that is. This is not financial advice. I'm just following along on this most incredible of uh stories here. Had talked yesterday at length about the two interviews with Ryan Cohen, the one on CNBC and the one on Fox News. Kind of felt like a tale of two cities in a way. Great book. Uh but I had said no matter what your read on the situation, there was something for you there. And there are certainly a lot of reads on the situation. And there's going to be a lot of reads on what I'm doing here and people that maybe take it for what they think I'm doing here. All I'm doing very simple trying to figure out what the stock's going to do on any particular day, week, month, week, or year. Always been my goal. Fell pretty far away with it from it. I would say actually in August of 2022, like I had started very ambitiously wanting to uh track the cycles and figure out if the stock was predictable and the stocks really slumped hard in end of year 2022 and then 2023 was brutal. Early 2024 it was so it was just like okay well maybe we'll focus more on the financials and was really focused on this stuff here. But then with the events of 2024 and what seemed to be the reappearance of some cyclical activity, I was like, okay, maybe we'll see something that like starts to look like cycles again or patterns again. And I would say it feels like that, you know, but I'm always very humbled now. I I never forget uh August 22nd of 2022. We had had two cycles. It felt like on the I think it was the 8th and the 16th and then it just fell hard. a lot like late November of 2022. And it was heartbreaking because I felt like the community was so rallied up on events of that year, the stock dividend split, the NFT wallet and the marketplace. Later it would be like the FTX uh partnership and there was even a couple of other things. Jam America. There was quite a bit. Uh but the stock, you know, told a whole another story. And so I'm always after those events and then all the events to follow into especially um quarter 4 report for 2023 in March of 2024 when stock rallied a little bit and I felt like that was a really good report and then you know actually we were red on both things but I I felt it was nice because it was here. I thought this was a pretty decent report because we were profitable. We just didn't hit expectations, but profit was good for the year and then we fell a little bit short on revenue. But I felt like, you know, declining store count and all these things, I felt like that was actually pretty good. But the market or whatever forces were at work decided no and took the stock down from 15 to 10 and I was just like, oof, it's brutal. But then things very quickly changed. So, we're here. doesn't mean uh I'm eternally optimistic and I'm just always I just always think back to those moments of heartache. I really do.
But uh I did want to talk about before we get into all the data of the day. Uh at GameStop we got this product here, Cynthia's Garchomp EX. So this is a I think this is a Destined Rivals product. So it is very hard to get Pokemon products right now. So I was excited about that. So we'll add that to the queue and open it at some point. But all I wanted to do in this video, very simple. We've talked quite a bit about uh the interviews, the financials over the last two days. Today, we've got or as of yesterday, this potential hype item, which is that the NFT marketplace Twitter account has now been refurbished, as GameStop does, into Pushart Arcade. No one knows quite what it is. there was a leak supposedly from employees that had an NDA of a way in which you could have some particular kind of token or something and then you could play games. I don't know if it's in person or electronic or what. Uh but you know maybe it's cryptoreated. There's a crypto bill advancing through the house. I don't want to speculate too much. No idea what the timeline would be. Uh, no idea if the NFT marketplace having been in a beta and the wallet I think was also beta the entire time. Maybe the company's been working on something and has something that is like ready for prime time. That would be great. That would be really really cool to see. Uh we have you know lots of items here on what could the company do to transform improve the core business create sticky customers or maybe like enter into the gaming space or an adjacent space in a meaningful and novel or new way. I think everyone's very helpful that they've been developing something like that. I have no idea what it would be. I don't know uh what push start arcade means yet, but I'm cautiously optimistic and I'm going to be really cautious because of the heartbreak that I had experienced over the stock dividend split in particular and the NFT marketplace as well. So, I'm hopeful, but for me, the proof will be in revenue increasing. I've I've come to the point in this story where this chart is my primary uh source of optimism. Everything else I'm like, okay, how does it help this chart? And this chart for people that know don't know is net income, which is is looking very very good. I'm incredibly optimistic about this chart. Uh, I think so much has happened in the last 13 months, but certainly in the two years prior to that because here's the last 13 months and here's like the two years prior to that to take this thing from very negative to very upward sloping. That's an incredible story. I just want to see it continue.
So, uh, that's about as much as I can speculate or offer. I'm excited. But did the NFT marketplace produce value for the company on the balance sheet? I don't know if it was a net negative. I really don't because they had the partnership with IMX. They were able to sell off the tokens. I don't know how much it cost them to develop the wallet and the marketplace. There was very little advertising that had to happen there. And uh the products were all produced by third party, you know, partners and stuff. So maybe the NFT marketplace was good for the balance sheet and not necessarily bad, but it didn't work out to be gamechanging like we had hoped for. and the wallet was put on everything's been put on stasis. So, is it all going to reemerge? And something like the PSA partnership came out with very little fanfare not that long ago. Really, the PSA partnership only happened when was that? That was so recent. It was October. And think about the tangible benefit to the company something with very little fanfare uh has produced. Uh so if we can get something like that from whatever this is, I think that is an incredible thing. But I will remain cautious every step of the way because uh like personally that was very heartbreaking. But then also the community I think uh can can get heartbroken and I don't want to contribute to that. So I'm always the voice that no one wants to hear. People are like Newton you're no fun. I know this is unfun. Newton, all the fun years are behind me. Um, trying to be maybe more humble, uh, more mature. Uh, it's like I have gotten over my skis and I don't want to do that anymore. So, we'll see what it means.
But, uh, we've got that there. What I wanted to talk about today data point of the day would be I wanted to click back on this options contract because I had talked about second chances and this options contract I had drawn three lines on it which were to represent when the share price is at a particular point you can see the behavior of the options contract no matter what the option behaves exponentially negative wanting to go to its home which is zero which is why I'm such a gigantic scaredy-cat when it comes to buying buying any form of option, whether it's a call, which I've only ever owned five call contracts in my entire life. Want to make that super clear. Back here, I purchased uh two. People are like, "Really? It's two?" Yeah, I bought two calls on GameStop. It was in Where is this here? right here on like about the red star. They were uh January 2025s, 21 C's. They were $3.25 a contract. First contracts I've ever purchased in my life. Two calls on GameStop. They went up a little bit and then they went down a little bit and they went down to $3. And I said, "Well, what do you do? You double down." Not good, right? but did it. Bought two more of the exact same contract. Sold more puts to buy them. So, sold puts, bought calls with the premium. So, now I had four contracts. Most contracts I've ever had on anything ever. They went up 75% to $4.50 and I sold them and that was gone. Um, and then at some point I bought one long duration leap on TMF, which is currently very red, very red contract, but I am holding it as a lesson learned. It's like did well and then did bad. Gave up all my gains probably. I don't I haven't done the math on it, but so I've only ever owned five calls ever. Um, selling calls is like a whole another story and then selling puts is a whole another story. have done like thousands and thousands of those because uh it's a completely different setup and the risk is the risk modeling is like completely different. But when you're buying calls, this is what they do and this is why selling them is like so understandable. Where do where do calls and where do puts sold want to go? To their home, which is zero or assignment. But if you're the seller and you're happy with um getting assigned on, then that's not really a risk. It's an understood outcome. So when you're buying the call though, here was this particular contract which we've been looking at. I've been focusing really in because these are LEAPS. They've been open for a very long time. These are the July 18th 24 C's. The reason I was focused on these is because the stock was trading between uh 23 and 24. And so I drew two exponential curves on this contract. The first one uh is going like this. Every time the stock touched back to 23, it bounces along this curve. This curve is when the stock is going along at $24. And you can see it blips along here. And then you do have occasional second chances. So if you had bought this contract up here though, you're you're going to be hardpressed to break even even, let alone try to get a green exit on this trade. the probability at any point um once it dropped off here IV really got crushed and price got crushed even with some price improvement it the conditions weren't good for it to get back to its original value on the contract so it did have a moment though of huge rally but the velocity on the stock here on Wednesday last week was absolutely incredible this was the moment to take your second chance and take uh a loss if you like you know realistically because the probability of the contract going up here would is just so slim. Um, if you had purchased in this little window here, great opportunity, but you had to take a very contrary uh bet here cuz stock was really falling. IV was really falling. You had this short window and then actually you got another window here. Very rare to have a first chance and a second chance, but ever since then, brutal because you're really, this was Friday and now you got five days to expir. Now you've got uh today and tomorrow. So like one and a half days till expiry. This contract's really having a hard time even with the stock trading close to 24. You can see it's just going down down down further and further and further. So unless something really magical happens, which with GameStop can totally happen even into a leap standard July opex, it could happen. Stock could, you know, have a catalyst. I'm not saying this would be, but maybe. You never know. Um, and then this contract could greatly recover and people that purchase these could actually end up with a win. But very easily too that window could come and then go away very very quickly. And I think people hold on too long. It's like these things are so timesensitive and I don't think people really understand the mathematics that are going on here. a lot of calculus, a lot of derivative functions, a lot of exponential decay. And I don't think people really get how dangerous they are to buy and what you're getting. These things were very, very highly priced back here and people were buying these things. So these things were $9 at one point. Now they're down to, you know, 20 cents. For these things to go back even to 80 cents, you need magic to happen in this next little period of time. For them to go to $2 or $3 or $4, the magic is exponential, right? Absolutely orders of magnitude bigger than maybe anything we've seen in a in a long time.
So, I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but like it's just what I really don't want people to do in this story is I'm going to go back to the people. Don't do it. No, we're going back to the purpose. This is not financial advice because I feel so strongly in what's down here at the bottom of the FAQ, which is the importance of financial literacy, financial planning, wealth building, uh getting true options in your life, not callinput options. Because the more you build wealth, you can set yourself free from the system. the system is really determined to keep people plugging away at stuff. And like I loved I loved my work and I loved my job, but I love much more uh taking care of my my son. It's like that's where I really want to be providing him with the highest quality of care because I'm providing it for him so I know it's the best. I don't have to like hope that someone else is doing it. Um, so I've uh got options now in my life and I I did that not by taking on enormous risk profiles. Uh, people will be like, "Well, you yoloed into GameStop." Uh, no. That was my GameStop portfolio. That's like with the rest of my portfolio. Super boring. Like Dave Ramsey, boggleheads fire mindset, right? So, what I'm really trying to show here on the on this channel is risk management, uh, you know, living within your means, all this boring stuff is how you get there. The turtle is how you get there. And then recognizing when risk greatly, greatly changes. So, you'll notice what I've noticed. Look at this options contract and look at how it's decaying and going to zero, right? And why I look at something like this and even when it looks like a sure thing, it's like look, it was so cheap right here. You could have bought it and then done it done a quick 2x. Yeah, that quick 2x though has a risk profile that's enormous because if stock had just kept grinding down and hadn't had a little bit of turbulence, you would never had an opportunity. And most importantly, you you have to take the opportunity. So you have to build the model, do the research, enter the trade at the right moment, and then exit the trade at the right moment. And it's really, really, really hard to do both of those things, right? Because it's two things, right? As as soon as it becomes from one thing to two things, it becomes very very hard to do correctly. And it's hard enough even to do on something that's not decaying like the stock. I think you know and I'm not saying that people need to buy and sell but so many people don't do that right in a situation that I mean if I look at this chart objectively this looks a lot like GameStop's stock right why does GameStop stock behave like an options contract moves especially like if you look at it like this moves way way down this could look just like 2020 boom 2021 right has some secondary opportunities here grinds its way down. Boom. Right. Has another little opportunity. Another opportunity. Spikes around. Boom. Or maybe this is 2024. I don't know. But GameStop stock itself seems to behave like an options contract, right? And I think people see it and they enter the trade whether it's a call option or the stock itself because of FOMO and emotion and risk off kind of mindset. And I look at something like this this contract and I'm like for me this contract is always risk on meaning uh or sorry I reverse that. They go out they go at uh the stock with a risk on pro uh mentality meaning like yolo let's go gamble time throw the dice and I always look at it like well where is it going to its home not the stock necessarily but it certainly I mean the stock was doing that for a long time it was going look at this thing going just like that right in the Dorito of doom right as BA trader drew and it was like well if you recognize the Dorito and you keep buying in the Dorito, which I think we all kind of did. Um, you're really risking and hoping for something to blow up on you, but at some point you have to re you have to go risk off. So, like that's so true for a contract like this. And so, I just wanted to talk to that at the beginning here while looking at this contract and recognizing like, well, surely the stock doesn't have to hover in this range. Doesn't have to happen, right? it could suddenly go really high up. The stock could move really high up and then the option would get dragged up even with such little theta left in it. It would move up, right? And there would be instead of just a first chance or second chance here, a third chance to um to end with a break even or green trade. But I got to just look at this chart as such a cautionary tale. Super cautionary tale. Even just that looks so scary to me because it's so incredibly unaligned with what I believe here. I never like to take a trade that can zero out. I've only done it five times. Five contracts in my whole life. Four of them hit, one of them didn't, and I'm at zero. You know, it's like like I it's just this is dangerous. And then if you zoom out a little bit more, you're like, "Oh my goodness, these things were trading at $8 or $10, right? And now they're down to pennies." So pennies matter, dollars matter, every trade matters. If you're really trying to change your circumstance, please have a risk on, risk off mentality that's not based on FOMO, emotion, or gambling. That is financial advice. I would say be really careful like and so that's why I'm talking about what I find to be the most incredible of stories, but what you decide to do in it is really all completely up to you. And I hope you do it with the best information possible, the best modeling possible. You're able to enter trades with a clear mind, have an exit strategy, and then you grow from that. you continue to ask questions and improve your circumstances. That's the main thing is I want people to end out of this whole situation with improved circumstances. And it would be very very easy uh to you know mismanage your resources amidst something this volatile and not just miss an incredible opportunity but turn it into a negative situation. And I just pray and I hope that that's not happening to people. And that's why these videos are so boring. And I even with people are like, "Non, you got to be super rallied and hype. We got this thing." And I'm like, "Okay, but what is it?" You know, we don't know. So, let's just be cautious, be calm. Could be amazing. Could take a really long time to affect this. So, I'm just patient. And if any of this like take on the whole situation is like I don't want to watch an hour video a day of a guy telling me to be patient and cautiously optimistic and to be risk off constantly. It's like go watch a hype video. There's plenty of market out there for people that are irrationally exuberant about all kinds of things. Especially this thing, you know, that's not what I want to do ever anymore. Especially if I've if I've done that in the past, I I very much apologize because I, you know, there were times when I was super I've learned a lot. I've been very greatly humbled and sobered along the way.
So, as exciting as this week is because we have our CEO doing a couple interviews, we have potentially the launch of a new thing. Uh, I just want to look at the data and be like, well, where are we going to end the week? probably in here as I've been saying for a while. Why data point of the day really not push start arcade for me? It's like I'm looking at the expansion here continually. Even more calls coming in now. We're a day and a half away. Could something bully the stock up over these 24s? I hope so. I want to see those 24s get assigned because that's 27,000 calls that week over week keep piling in on us taking call options premiums off the table and preventing the stock from really appreciating upwards. Okay. So, if those get assigned and people lose their shares, probably the bond traders, and then now they have less ammunition with which to work the following week and they have to move their little wall up to here, which look at the number of 25s there are as well. They've just got three gigantic walls here at the 24s, 25s, 26. They all expire tomorrow. If they don't lose some of these, I mean, look at just the 23s and 23 and a halfs. We've never We've never seen something like this. It's incredible. 10,000 23s. These could be purchased uh you know on net because that's a lot and they're in the money. Or maybe we even end below these. I don't know. That would be terrible, I think. But that's you know that's a million shares of GameStop right there at the 23s. That's another million here at the 235. So alto together just in this little zone here of $3. This is our uh what is this? Our bare zone. We've got uh 117,000 call options. So 11 million shares worth of calls. It'd be wonderful to see them assigned and see people lose those shares. All right. That way they can't use them next week to sell calls on. They'd have to like go out and get new shares or or something like that. And then we'll I don't know what the positioning is here on the puts whether these are uh bought or sold. I imagine these ones are purchased and these ones are sold. Just my guess. And these people want the stock down here. And these people want call options premiums here. So, I've got a little 8020 split here. Chance we end the day or the week uh below 24 I think is very strong because of max pain being right there. And this is just we've never we've never seen this many. Well, was it June that had 450,000? That was a lot. So June was a giant expiry. This is really big though. So um I know people might hear my voice and just be like man Newton's so bearish and it's like it's not it's just the data and it's like I want to see us break out of this and we are how long into our little cycle here? We've been in this since um June 5th. So we really dropped off right here with the end of this Babe Ruth graphic. So we've been in a down cycle on PMO. Yeah, here's our red dot right there. And it's like we're very close to post posting across here. This is like such the most important graph of all time. And we're down here and we just been cruising and it's like look at the max pain. Someone asked, can't you just basically say we're going to follow max P? Because like we have like here's max pain, max pain, max pain. It's like pretty much, but they move. And we've actually seen them start to move out here because they were all positioned on the 23 there for a second and it looked like just a straight line. But now, interestingly, this one is starting to move up onto this yellow line, which I drawn. And this one is on the yellow line. This one's going towards the pink star, and then they're starting to like move up towards earning. So, we don't have this options expiry for the 5th open yet or this one for the 12th in September, but they'll open soon. And it'll be really neat to see does this one move up here. It'll be really neat to see. And if the little blue diamonds, which represents the where the options are all piling in at here, you can see on the OC dashboard, and we go out for like next week, where are they piling in for next week? The walls already being built uh mostly at the 25s. Not as much at the 24th. So, they're they're moving up a little bit. Uh, but that's still a decent amount at the 24s. And then for the next week, look for August 1. Where's the wall being built at? Yep. 24 25. Mostly 24 and 25 again. But that's how it works. People just like, you know, putting their um either purchased or sold calls, we don't know what they are, out there. And then it moves the little diamond. And if that little diamond moves up there and we get some diamonds out here moving up here and it all tracks onto the yellow graph, the yellow dotted line, that would be incredible. So, it's like the person's question of the day, which was, uh, can't you just basically track max pain? It's like, yeah, but you got to track where you think it's going to end up like settling like this one seems to be pretty pretty settled here, but they do even move into Friday at 235. This one's settled at 23, but it could move up to 235. This one's up here at 24. This one's down here, but it's such a light amount of uh options here so far. This is August 1st. There's like hardly anything out here for August 1, 1st, and August 8th. So, these can easily move. You get some big orders coming in and pushing this around. This on the graph could move down a little bit right there again. It was right there just like yesterday. And this could very easily just shift up and then boom, it's tracking the yellow line. So as important as options are right here in our current like cycle a universe, uh it's like it's developing. It's constantly developing and providing information to the stock and then sort of like building a path, a glide path on which the stock wants to like move because the options market maker will basically just push it around with their gamma hedging as we just move forward. So that's that's what I see in the situation and it's like but people are like but push start arcade and it's like yeah maybe maybe we'll see um if it's something amazing right then all this options activity very quickly will move around and maybe it just like presents this situation where the stock is very optimistic right but it's all in some way shape or form based on this an expectation of growth grow in net income is what it's all about and you know at its fundamental level.
Um, so let's go ahead and just click through some data. That was a really long ramble to basically say please if you're going to trade options or the stock because again I don't care if people invest in GameStop. I really don't. I think GameStop's going to do whatever GameStop's going to do regardless of um anyone watching the video or making any decisions based on what I'm saying here. My goal at all is to never encourage people to do anything financially. I'm just talking through it. Um, but in buying calls, you put your money at extraordinary risk because of the way that they work. So, I would just I'm going to keep this open though. Keep this right here. Uh I would just say if there is something I could offer with financial advice, it would be please know the risks of the thing the things with which you're engaging in. And hype and emotion shouldn't be part of your um like investing decision-m it should be as data driven as possible. And if this is your data point, more power to you. I just am not highly rating it on mine. In fact, I'm not even adding it to the too long didn't read chart currently. You know, it it's a rumor currently. When it's officially official and it becomes news, maybe it plays a role and and moves us. But I've just become more and more and more of a bearish scaredy-cat. not a bear, but like it's like I'm just parsing the bears, parsing the bulls, parsing the data, and saying, "Well, that's a super strong force right now." Um, so I got to recognize it for what it is. So, I don't know. Hopefully all that's helpful you guys. I know I'm just repeating myself every single day. I just want people to not get hurt. It's like if we just trade sideways even longer and people like, "Surely we have to break out." It's like it it does do that and there does seem to be like a ticking clock at which the pressure gets too big and then we all of a sudden just rupture upward for a moment and then chill or rupture and then like trade sideways then go up even more. Is that soon? I don't know. I've seen I've just you know I try to always remember stuff like this. It's like are we just doing this? you know, this was a long time. This was from uh December. So, this was from Christmas of 2023. And it was like, man, that you know, it was like at any moment everyone's like, "Something's got to happen. And it's like so suppressed, lots of fails, boopping around, doing a lot of nothing, and just kept getting I don't have max pain back here, but it was just chilling on max pain week after week after week after week after week until it wasn't. So, how long is this kind of thing going to go on for? I don't know. Uh, but this is what the model kind of says.
So, let's go ahead and look through the data here. I haven't even looked at the pre-market yet. So, pre-market, uh, 14 13 cents over max pain right here. Uh, Kitty's charts. What I'm most looking at here is the very bottom chart. PMO has crossed on his chart. Let me zoom in on it. Just do this. So, you can see here, it's very hard to see, but that's a cross on his because the black line, which is the signal, and the orange is the trigger. Is that how that works? It's over currently because that's more negative. So that's a cross. It was flirting with it all day yesterday. What is important to note though is the 55day is so important and this is custom. Like if you look at uh price momentum oscillator on anything else as a default, it does not come with this. You got to add this on. And that is heading down. And for GameStop, I don't know if this is true for all things, but for GameStop, when that thing is heading down, even if these cross, it's like not a good look. What you really want to see for GameStop, you can go back in like basically all points historically, which is incredible, is like here's our last cycle. Uh, blue was coming down. Even though you got nearly across here, it reversed really quickly here, kept heading down because blue was still coming down. And it really tracks pretty nicely with the midline on the Ballinger bands. And it wasn't until blue bottomed down here. It was in the negative space. It was right in here in April and blue starts to turn upwards. It's when blue gathers itself at the bottom and starts moving upwards and the other two are over. So the signal on the trigger have now crossed. They're green. This is on the daily and they're moving up and over it. You get this window of time, a green box here where stock is exceptionally bullish. All right. And it lasted all the way until 65, which is so crazy because we had had the Babe Ruth graphic ending that day. And I had had it going from green to switching to red. This is when it uncrossed and stock had a little tiny bit of life left in it into earnings. It can do that, but it was like now destined for this maybe. So, as much as like a green cross uh signal over trigger on the one day PMO is good, uh I feel like as long as the 55day is heading downward like this, it's like you're fighting you've got positiveness fighting negiveness. So, you're basically net neutral, which means like more sideways because like that's what happened right here. Positiveness down here, negiveness on the blue. You're basically still gathering yourself and seeing bearish crosses here on the simple moving averages. That's how it works every time. Here we are back here. Stock started to rally here in uh September right into earnings. You see the cross here. You actually get the green cross, but the blue is downward sloping. We get an offering here, which again, this offering, I was thinking about it again last night. The reason it bothered me so much, people have said, "It's because you own calls." I've heard someone make that claim. It's like, "Nope, I've only ever owned five calls ever. Two here, added two here, and then bought the one on TMF." What really bothered me about it was when you go to the value tab, and you go to the dilutions, which I've got down here at the bottom, it was the it was just simply the price point. It was we were diluting, and I didn't understand why. We had diluted at 21 in May and I was like, "Okay, a billion dollars. Nice." Then we diluted at 285 and there was such a big improvement there. I was like, "You got to love it." Raising 2 billion in three days. Actually, like two and a half trading days. But then the third dilution, I was like, "Now we're lower than the other two. Why are we doing that when stock seems to be really slumped down in like a like dorito down here going downwards like these ones I was like we're in like a big macro super cycle thing all this excitement enormous volume why are we diluting here but maybe it's because of the cross so we had a PMO cross right here stock was really really rallied it was like some volume was coming in was that the rationale for the offering here. I got to always wonder that. And it only went from 25 down to 20. So, and then it like was shortlived down here. We bounced around a bit and then boom, launched out of here. So, what does that mean looking forward here? Just kind of hamstering all over the place today and don't know where I'm going with my thoughts, but like if we get a little green cross here, could we actually rally? Because like this is up now two weeks away. Could we actually like instead of trading sideways and slumping more, could like I mean macro, we're still in like a down blue, but could we actually start to rally a bit into the institutional filing window? That'd be cool. That'd be really cool. Uh so we trade maybe like along this yellow, even like break above the yellow. That'd be really good. and then trade up here into this window. And like don't want to jinx it, of course, but like if we see a 2 to 4% increase in institutional ownership here because we'll start seeing those reports, we're already starting to see a little bit of them, but we'll start to see them in very early August and they'll just keep piling in. And with the piling in, I think you see all kinds of excitement build and it's reflected in the options a lot, especially in the like way out of the money calls. And so this will build up maybe that'd be very exciting. And this is all crossed because how long did it take? Um, let's look back here. This one fell immediately. No offering, no real like rationale. There was this big probably settlement event and then XRT went back on RA show and they they blew up XRT. That's probably why. Uh, and then it came all the way down into the pink swap. Pink swap's pretty far though. So if they manage to like deal with whatever this is here, have we we haven't seen ultimator signals. So if we see ultimator signals light up again, like if we just kind of like come down tomorrow into July OPEX and then maybe like even next week, like come down a bit, but then it's like we've got a green cross because you could come down a little bit and maintain your green cross here. Maybe it's like you just come down a little bit and then that's the swap and then it starts to rally. This is crossed up and that's so far away out there that they're just like ah just let it rally and just rallies its way up into this window. That'd be it'd be really cool to like see it happen day by day. It's so slow, but have like an understanding of why it's like bouncing around here all negatively formed. Gathers itself on the PMO, but it still knows that the macro head ones are like recovering in recovery mode and then it starts moving its way up and then how so like back here in this one it didn't do that though from here where it was like crossing or looking to cross the pink swap was only two weeks away. So it was like did they need did they basically just go ah just force it boop and just like drop it down and kill its momentum and then they let it rally here. But like maybe we're looking like this. So if we post the little green dot today, it's a maybe. It's already on Kitty's charts and I don't know why his are a little bit different than mine, but we'll probably see that green dot today. And if there's no offering that comes in on it, I've always wondered, were we kind of destined to have something more like this, a little rally up right here. So if we rally up to where like maybe this green candle was, how long was this? So you go from the green dot to the green candle. That was two weeks. Big giant volume came in last day of the offering. Maybe it was like destined to kind of go up and then fall down into those swaps because that would have given you how long to the swaps? Two weeks or so. And like it was like maybe leadership was like I don't know if they watched the chart at all. Maybe they it was as simple as hey it's earnings stocks up offer. And I'm completely overthinking the situation. Or maybe they looked at and they were like green cross volume's probably going to come in. They're probably wanting to rally it. Let's give them some shares in their little rally here because they're probably going to want to dump it out here into some swaps. I don't I don't know if they're seeing it like I'm seeing it, but um so that would basically present a situation of we come in a little bit low here. Maybe they get their roll on. This thing is still crossing and then we get two weeks up. That'd be like up here right into the beginning of the filing window. Maybe it extends for a week and then drops down into the swap and it just follows the yellow line exactly. Or maybe it just does its own thing. I don't know. So that's not really data. Let's go back to the data. Sorry. Uh so yeah, we are very close to max pain. Kitty's charts crossed. Uh spy comparison looks awful. OBV though is starting to rally up and people point it out when it gets to like a top like that to be worried or you know to risk off I guess is the right way to word it. Uh and then the exponential looks so much like right here to me. So I really feel we're at like this moment in time of the last cycle. This looks like it too on the MACD. You got a bunch of green with the trend line going towards the the zero right there. And that's when we got rejected. So, could we reject or carry into the institutional filing window? So, is it like last cycle or the September cycle? And does it get interrupted with an offering? I can't imagine we get an offering down here, but you know, I always have to think about what's happened in the past. Last time in Q3, it was with earnings. We got an offering even though I felt like it was mispriced. So, I'm never leaving uh events of the past off. I'm trying to just like, you know, always be thinking about what's happened in the past. These are back. These uh they keep flickering on and off. Not sure what's going on with that. And so RSI seems pretty subdued, but kind of building. This looks good here on this chart, I would say, on the daily. RSI gathering itself up after getting completely uh smashed with the offering. That offering was gigantic. We've never had an offering that big. So, anyone wondering like why it's taking so long? The the other question would be someone asked a very good question. They said, "Wouldn't the bond traders want volatility?" They had volatility. They had vol premiums as we can see on this contract. It was trading at $7. They sold these things and now they're writing them all the way to Xpirie and they're this is how they get their money back, right? So, the reason that all the contracts are so cheap right now is because these guys have sold them, the bond traders, and the way that they make the money is at the end when they expire worthless, that's when they lock in their gain. So, and until they've locked in their gains on all these different experies that they went into, like this one was available and they sold tons into this one. I don't know which other ones were open. I don't know if the August 15s were open, but certainly October's were open, the September's were not. So, they really hit the October, the January's, they hit all these, and they hit all the narrated ones. Until these fall off. These guys haven't actually yet realized their gain. So they they do want volatility to come back on the stock, but this is the process by which they are harvesting the volatility. It's very painful, but you're watching them make money in real time. So I think Kitty's charts look pretty good. I It's like we're a month or so in or maybe a little bit longer now into our recovery hopefully. I love to see this. This looks really good. And then, sorry to get distracted constantly, but could we see a red dot post here on
The 4-hour with a green dot on the one day? It's like, well, you want to see them. Mozelle do the same thing. If we get our red here, this today, and then we've got, I mean, a green one, green here. We've got a green to match on the 4-hour. That'd be really good.
The weekly though, I think is bad, right? Yeah, weekly is still red crossed, and then the monthly is still red. That's what I ultimately want to see is a green dot post on the price momentum oscillator on the monthly. Have not had that in five years. Over five years. That would be super cool.
And then looking at the markets up here, still at all-time highs. Bitcoin up at 117 or 118. XRT posted this big red candle. We'll see what they all decide to do. Bonds very, very low still, and did like a death kiss here on the PMO. So, not looking good. These could all flip into death kisses, which would be bad. That would be, you know, the 55-day on all of them, or actually, it's the 55-week. I don't know.
This this actually looks like it might start to inflect, which would be very good for the markets. If this is just like a little turn like this, and then it turns like that and starts heading upwards again, I'd be like, breathe a big sigh of relief. It's over the zero, over the zero, over the zero. This one, good luck bonds. Uh, but if the markets keep heading upwards and this is just basically a little blip in the road, which happens, that'd be great. That'd be really, really good for GameStop because it'd be be what I'm really worried about, like big, big picture, is if we see something like this in the background. That's why I put it on there. It's like, uh, that's what happened in 2022. Um, and in 20, end of 2021 on XRT, XRT falling super strongly off of this giant peak, certainly not helpful at all for GameStop. So, if we can keep our macro headwinds healthy, makes GameStop's job much easier.
If the company. So, like it's like you got kind of a double-edged sword here. The company's got tons of cash. They're ready if there's a downturn to deploy it and find things that are cheap. So, that's like something that people are sort of looking for, and I'm looking for, and Ryan Cohen telegraphed, you know, it's, uh, Berkshire Hathaway approach. We're ready in case things don't go well. But if things don't go well, that's very hard on the stock in the immediate term on the price of the stock. So, you got to kind of take both of those hand in hand. It's like a downturn is good because opportunity presents itself, but bad because stock price will certainly fall as all the other stocks fall and the indices fall.
If things just keep going up, if, uh, you know, I don't know, like consumer confidence is very high, employment's high, uh, inflation's low, things are looking really good, and markets just keep going burr, good for GameStop stock price, good for indices. But then GameStop sitting on its cash waiting for that opportunity that may or may not come, right? But having a bunch of cash earning interest also not bad. So that's kind of what I'm looking at here. I don't know which outcome I would prefer. I think I'd honestly prefer things to just keep going burr. Honestly, it's good for good for the world. I don't want to see an apocalypse-style big fall in markets. Uh, GameStop's well-positioned to take advantage of that, but it's hard on everybody. Very hard. So, I don't want to see it personally.
Uh, and then let's look at this. IV is still very subdued. 48 is quite low. And then shorts are really shortened down here, which you would expect. And then here on the max pain environment, you can see it looks like the diamonds I've got on the chart. And I like updating this every day on the chart and see it converge closer and closer to the yellow line. That's very encouraging. Some long volume coming in.
And oh, I wanted to look at, um, shares at GMEU are actually fluctuating like XRT used to, while XRT shares are not fluctuating very much at all anymore. 3.2. So, I got to add that to the sheet over here on the ETF tab. Someone asked, they said, "What's the ETF tab doing?" Nothing exciting really, to be honest. Um, let's see what this is at. So, we'll update this, and then we'll go up here and look at it. So, let's look at the ETFs. Sorry for the very, very long, boring data video.
We had on the ETF tab our market heartbeat show up right on time with June OPEX, big creation, little bit of redemption, little bit of oscillating, and then this function here, which is derived from ETF ETF activity, does show this a dump. Hm. Into end of July. A big one too. Uh, but like I don't know how well this model performs. It predicted this big run. Is it just like, I don't know, that happened before that? Nothing really happened before that one though. I don't know. I don't know how helpful this model is.
And then when we look at the echo model, let's go look at that one because we haven't been looking at these too much lately. Uh, we've got, it's why I'm always like, h more modeling and more data is not always good. Like maybe all you actually need is max pain, but maybe not. This one shows very light fail to deliver activity uh in our last couple of days here, and we haven't seen the stock do much of anything. But then we had this, this was this is today. So, we've got a bit of activity uh for today, and then I think less for Friday, and quite a bit of potential fail to deliver activity next week. And actually see it down here. This is something that I do find interesting, which is, um, so here we are. Update this. Here's today, the 17th. There's some fails coming in from 33 days ago, and I believe it was XRT, right? Let's go look at those.
So, here we are. We've got some echoing coming in from, uh, May 30th. We ended below max pain that day by 20 cents. This was after we had like gone way up in the Bitcoin conference and then came right back to max pain. And we can see that the fails were on XRT. So maybe, and then the next day the fails were on XRT a little bit as well on something else. So that's showing up in the echo tab here. But in addition to that, there are some fails that were potentially uncleared right here from a 100 days ago, and right here from five cycles ago. So it actually gives you like a pretty good chunk here of potential fail activity over the next week and a half. Then it drops off for a little bit here, and then it really picks up strongly in August.
And I don't know if there's like strong correlation between basically when you see big green here. This is like a summation or composite of one kick back, two kicks, three kicks, four kicks, if this all is a thing, right? This is just an idea I've come up with. But this is a big brick here and a big brick here going up into August. Uh, and we haven't seen something like that dense in a down cycle. Like here's our down cycle in, uh, July 7th through when we hit the bottom and then started coming back up. This was it was very light here. So I think it was very easy for them to like keep the stock down if they had not a lot of fails, to not a lot of echoing. Right. Uh, our previous down cycle to that started, I would say like July 17th right here, and ran through the first day of October, like right here. This was our three months down, and you can see it wasn't like a giant brick, but there was a bit here going on, and then especially like out here at the end of September.
So, I don't know if there's a correlation between this echo. Might be something for someone to look at if this actually means anything at all, but we've got a lot of it coming up here. So, we are right here now. This is just like purely experimental. I think we're still trapped in a down cycle until when would our down cycle end according to PMO? We want to look at this one. If we are in a big PMO down cycle, and even if we get a little baby cross here, do some stuff, and then maybe come back down again. We're waiting for this blue to do this and curve its way up. And it really starts out here. Uh, September 24th is where we. This shows that we enter September 25th. A green box again, finally, big, maybe. But if that's out here, then this is actually a pretty considerable amount of, I would say, echo activity going on here. Unlike the previous cycle, which looked very, very light over here, and the cycle before, which had stuff like this, but all sporadic. This is this seems like a lot.
So that's if they're trying to process this, maybe that means that volume won't drop really low this time because I think that when we see volume get very, very, very suppressed and low, like back here, it means that in the background there's just like no noise, no fails to deliver, no stuff coming through from old trades. So we have this kind of stuff happening here, and we are not seeing that yet. So maybe we never see a big drop off in volume going out here for the next, how many trading days do we have? We have from here to where I think we'll start to finally turn. Oh my goodness. Is it that long? Is that right? 50 days. 50 more seems like an awful lot. Okay. Is that can that possibly be right? 50 more trading days. Okay.
Well, maybe volume just never gets like super duper low on this whole run, and we never like are able to get pushed super far down because the stock's a bit buoyant off of them trying to churn fails to deliver. And I think the way they churn fails is with volume. That's really what drove a lot of the activity back here when stock was really high up. There was so much volume back here. You can see it down here. Uh, and it's like that's constant fail churning, and it's like a hose just pushing through fails, pushing through fails. And it was like when they finally got somehow the fails under control, then they could slump the price down and keep hammering it down on low volume. Um, I don't think for some reason they can hammer it on high volume when it's fail juggling related.
So if they are juggling here in this window, is it that long? 50 more trading days. I don't know. I I think it will be 50, but maybe the boring part is behind us. I think we're heading into a more exciting portion of the cycle because like down here, this was pretty painful, and then it was like some excitement. This is down but exciting. This is certainly earnings and exciting bond offering and exciting, and then they start to move up. So, if it's sort of a repeat of last cycle, maybe it's a long time. It's like we've gone through how long here? 23. So, we've gone through a third of the whole thing here. Maybe, you know, this is all just a gigantic maybe. So, uh, that's what I'm kind of looking at today. Processing a lot of thoughts, up, down, or sideways, right? That's always the thought.
Uh, to go back to the verse of the day, um, I I've been talking for so long. I'm like, what have I even said today? More of the same thing. But here's the angel preparing the way. And I, you know, I just got to continue to be humble. And that's what I need to remind myself every single day. I don't know what's going to happen. I have no idea. Uh, anything could happen. This could certainly be extraordinarily exciting. Uh, but I never want to, uh, these days especially, take for granted the fact that I think people very much, uh, take my emotional state as some kind of like measure of what's going on here. Um, they hear my voice, they hear the way I'm saying, and it's very hard for me to like measure those things because I'm such an open book. Um, and it's like, well, logic and data tells me sideways. Hype energy tells me we could go up. Swap tells me we could head down. And then humility tells me, but you never know. You just never know. And so I'm open to anything. Um, positioned for everything as much as I can be, and hopeful for good things to come, especially for all the people involved in the story. I hope that they're satisfied with the situation. As hard as that is to satisfy everybody, right? Different time horizons, as Ryan Cohen said, and different cost bases certainly for everybody. So, we'll see what happens with the story. I'm optimistic. Um, and I think maybe that's what the angel of the Lord gives us here is hope. Um, so I hope that you guys have hope for the things to come, and if I'm not providing that for you, and what I say here is very boring, um, and you know what I am hopeful for is to see a little green dot show up here. Does that mean anything's exciting is going to happen? Not really, but it would be cool to see a little green dot. We didn't get one on the last cycle. No green dot right there. Just got pushed down. But that, you know what goes down must come up. So, you know, if it goes down, great. Maybe that means there's an up in the future. If it goes up, well, maybe that means there's a down in the future. So hopefully you guys have a good one. Uh, I'll see you tomorrow. Have a wonderful day, and, uh, we'll see what happens today with the stock.