Transcription
We are on the Titanic. We saw an iceberg and everybody said, "Don't hit that iceberg." And we're still going to the iceberg.
We are going to likely have ground operations on the coast of Iran. I would say this is 70% likely. >> CLASSIC VOLUNTEER DEATH TO AMERICA. >> Trump is going to become Herbert Hoover for sure. For sure. >> Hoover's name is is associated with poverty and misery in the United States. So, you think this reinvigorated war creates a new global depression?
Yalda is away for today's episode, but hopefully we'll be back together for next week. And I have a lot to share for you this week about my recent trip to Iran. It was extraordinary. I had an enormous amount of access. This is something the Iranians wanted to show, but it is not clear that the war is going necessarily in the direction they hope it is. and I'll be talking with political scientist Robert Pap about where this war is going. Is it on an escalatory path? He certainly thinks we are heading in that direction.
So, first of all, I want to tell people about this amazing trip that I just got back from in Iran. I flew into Tehran and I will tell you what what happened when I got in. We had great access. I wasn't the only journalist there. There were a few dozen teams. So, this is an extraordinary number for Iran. And perhaps because of that number of journalists, there weren't any restrictions placed upon us. We could go wherever we wanted. Uh we could eat out, walk around the streets, talk to anyone we wanted to. A lot of access for a country that hasn't been giving very much. Um one because they were probably overwhelmed. They didn't have the staff to sort of follow and monitor that many crews. Probably all told there were probably maybe a hundred journalists in Iran for that week. And they also didn't seem like they thought they had anything to hide. They wanted people to be out on the streets where there were hundreds of thousands, millions of people over the course of the week uh who were getting free food from the state who were carrying pictures of the late supreme leader. Uh they were wearing black. Uh I was able to get right up to the masala into the masala which is a a main mosque prayer area in Thran. That's a place I've been to before and I saw the casket lying in state there and people were shouting death to America. They were angry but they were also shouting uh v victory slogans. They they believe they won this war and that is a belief you have from government officials down to the people on the street including people who are in the opposition. Um I didn't just speak to people who were there wearing the black uh carrying the carrying the posters. uh other people who don't like the regime were t telling me reluctantly, well, you got to give it to them. You know, they they did fight a tough fight and they they moved in providing social services. Every time there was a bombing, the state uh and the besiege were there putting out the flames and putting out the fires and they earned a lot of credibility and respect. Uh there were never any shortages during the war. Haven't been thus far. Uh even when the bombings started again, and I was in Thran, there were no shortages in the shops. people were calm even as the bombings resumed. They weren't bombings in Thran, but they were not too far away and and and primarily in the south. One guy I know who's not uh a fan of the regime, said that the conclusion he and many others had drawn is if the United States and Israel, two nuclear powers, can't topple this government, how are we, the unarmed Iranian citizens, supposed to do it? And that's a very tough conclusion. And I think that's a tough conclusion that the state is hoping on pro hoping to prove that they're not going anywhere. They're there and that this transition of power from the late supreme leader Ayat to his son Moshaba has been successful and smooth. But there's one big problem. Where is Mhushtaba? And that is something that the Iranians are are keenly curious about, aware of. Uh every day there was the the speculation game. Are we going to see him today? Is he hiding out because he's wanted and the Israelis say he's wanted, so making an appearance would be strategically dangerous. Or is he hiding out because he's disfigured? Or is he some sort of captive pope like happened in the Middle Ages where you have a the head of a theocracy being really run by the by other powers, by the military or the nobles, you know, the elite. Um, people don't know and until he's seen, I think that's going to be a question a lot of people are going to have.
But later on, we're going to have an interview where we go through all where this war is going next with a a brilliant uh professor from the University of Chicago who's been following this war very closely and thinks it's just going to escalate right now. But before we get into that interview, uh let's take some questions and people have been writing in. So, thank you very much. Our listeners, they've been sending these questions to the world at sky.uk and the first is from Aub. On last week's episode, Yalda mentioned that you were in Iran. I'm assuming you were there when the US and Iran were exchanging strikes again. What was that experience like? And how did you and your team navigate that situation?
So, yes, we were there and first we landed at the airport. By the way, the Iranians didn't even search our bags. They didn't even go through customs. They waved us through a the best welcome that I've had in Iran. Welcome with a smile. Came in, went from a car, went to a hotel. I was there uh at a hotel I'd known before. Bunch of journalists were there. They had a media uh table set up with coffee on it where you could just, you know, take some cookie and coffee. They really wanted to sort of greet us well. And then they let us do what we want to do. Spoke to the Rev Guard. They also believe they firmly won the war. They also want revenge for Hami and say that this isn't going to be over until they get that revenge. Which is why I think you saw President Trump, you know, expressing such concern about his personal safety. The Iranians have said they want justice to be settled and they have long memories. Then to go back to this question, when the bombings restarted, uh it start it started by Iran by the way. Iran began this. Iran started firing on some ships because they were using uh different routes in the straight of Hormuz that Iran hasn't approved. This is all about Iran maintaining control of the straight of Hormuz. And it says the straight of Hormuz will be open on our terms, on Iran's terms. you have to use this line of traffic and ships weren't using that. So Iran shot at them. President Trump responded attacking for a couple of days. Iran has responded again and the escalation started and we will see where we go from here. We handled it pretty easily. Uh we went downstairs, we filmed, we were able to report the entire time. Uh when our visas ran out, we left the country and we never had any any threat or hassle uh because it was quite quite calm. Um that doesn't always happen. uh aub in conflicts sometimes there's tense situations the government is isn't always that friendly the Iranian government isn't always that friendly but I think it's a sign of how how confident they are at this stage that they left us uh free to work and report even even in the last minute even as the bombs are falling so next question this one is from Suzanne in London I saw reports about huge turnouts in Iran for Hame's funeral some claiming tens of millions of people attended the various ceremonies. Has this war united the Iranian people rather than fragmented them or is there still a large percentage of the population who opposed the regime? Great question. Fundamental question. Thank you, Suzanne. There were there were millions of people on the streets. I I I don't know the number. Um but there were millions. I've been in many demonstrations before. It wasn't tens of thousands. There were millions uh if you added up the different days because it was several days of events in Thran which is a big city then more events in K then again in Mashad which is another large city so we're talking about millions of people and it did unite segments of society behind the government to a degree the people who hated the government still hate the government and I don't think it changed anyone's opinion but when you are attacked at least temporarily. The people who are defending you become the people who are defending you whether you like them or not. So the regime probably got a boost of popularity, but I'm not sure if it changed any people. But what it showed their opponents is they're not going anywhere. It showed the opponents they're tough and they're dug in and a couple of protests aren't going to remove them.
And joining us now to talk about Iran, where this war is going, is a professor at the University of Chicago. Uh he is the founding director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats, author of Bombing to Win Air Power and Coercion in War. Uh we now have Professor Robert Pap joining us to discuss the Iran wars. Uh great to have you on. >> Uh thanks for having me, Richard. So, where do you think this war is right now and where is it going? Uh, do you think it's been a failure? I just got back from Iran where the Iranian government is touting this as a huge success. They believe they won the war and they're trying to get the Iranian people to rally behind their victory and hold on to the leverage they've achieved. And we can break down each one of those things. Uh, how do you assess the the conflict before we get into it? >> Uh, well, there's no doubt that um the United States and Israel have failed strategically to this point. They have been tactically successful in the sense of bombs hitting targets, bombs killing leaders, bombs destroying missile launchers. Uh but strategically they have failed because Iran controls Hormuz. And what you are now seeing is the stage of the war where the United States is trying to reverse the defeat. That's what's occurring. That's what's in front of us. Now this is tragic but fully predictable. Richard, so I have been modeling the bombing of Iran for 20 years. Three days before the February 28th war started, I opened up a substack called the escalation trap where I put out the three stages of the escalation trap that was going to unfold over the next six months or a year. >> And do you think we're in that escalation trap now? >> Oh, for sure. We're in it now and have been for a while. Uh some of us just didn't know that. So stage one is the opening where bombs would hit targets, bombs would kill leaders. uh bombs would hit missile sites, but the Iran regime would not collapse. It would stiffen um and that would lead to then stage two, which is Iran would grow stronger and take hormuz. What this would be is Iran would now control Hormuz and would become the rising regional hegeimon. And also, I published a piece in the New York Times on April 4th, that Iran, if over the next year and a half, if that continued, would become the fourth center of world power. And so there's a whole lot underneath that. But now what happened after stage two where Iran controlled hormuz we of course tried punishment attacks. So I've been studying punishment campaigns with air power, economic sanctions, blockades for 30 years. I've taught for the US Air Force and also advised every White House. >> So So where are we now? >> We are now knocking on stage three. We're about to go to what are limited ground options and more aggressive efforts to take Hormuz back. This is what the repositioning of the forces have been in the last two weeks. It's not just general repositioning. This is what the bombing patterns have been in the last few weeks. This is suppression bombing to get prepared for uh more aggressive uh ground options uh here. Now, it's not that President Trump has signed the order for the ground options, and I'm sure there's still hope that he can get uh ships through the southern passage of Hormuz and avoid the ground options. But this is not a situation where this is iffy and we're doing pretext anymore. Notice there's not even the pretense of negotiations anymore. >> And so are you saying that the US and maybe Israel are going to have to relaunch the war again to try and do what they didn't do the first time and make this victorious? >> Yes. And it'll be a bigger worse war. So this is not a situation where we're relaunching the old war. So a lot of the media now is saying, well, are we going back to March and and April? No. This will be worse than that. >> We're not just restarting the car again. >> We're not restarting the car. We're going to take the car and we're going to focus it in a different direction. And effectively, uh, Richard, um, you will probably know that in April, the Pentagon, they did a classified study of what would happen if we tried to retake Hormuz. And they said it would be a six-month war. So, if your listeners will Google that, they'll see the New York Times story in April that a six-month war is likely coming here. Now, there'll be good days. There'll be bad. There'll be bad. There'll be good weeks. But this is not a situation where this is going to be over and we're about to end this in just a day or two. What's going on is a fundamental zero sumum disagreement about who will control the straight of Hormuz. Is it going to be Iran that will control it? In which case they will become the fourth center of world power in about a year year and a half the dominant state in the Persian Gulf and in the Middle East or are they is it going to be America in which case Iran will go back to becoming the declining power is not just about some tolls this is this is more than that it's geopolitics of the first order and changing the balance of power in the region and really around the world the second problem he's got is the opin opinion polls here um uh are out and the and MAGA is not supporting the idea of theou. Trump needs MAGA to turn out in droves. And if Trump owns the L, Richard, then he will be the lo the loss that puts it on his chest the way the uh Iranians want him to own it, then he will be the loser and he will be the lamest of lame ducks even before the midterms. >> What does this six month look like? we are going to likely have um ground operations unfold where we're actually on the coasts of Iran. I would say this is 70% likely. >> And wouldn't they immediately come under attack? So let's say a bunch of US Marines >> take these beach heads. Yep. >> Or these islands and hold them y >> and they're going to be constantly attacked. I just published um a lengthy post explaining why is Trump escalating if everybody says he won't because of the midterms because this is what everybody has been saying for months he wouldn't possibly do this. >> That's counterintuitive. The the the gut instinct in in America and other places is that he's dialing this down and we'll try and dial this down into the midterm. You're saying no no no >> no. I'm saying this is what's happening right now, this week, next week. We're knocking on the door of this now, not in November. And it's about politics here, Richard, This isn't just I don't just study military bombs hitting targets. The escalation trap is about how military action impacts politics. >> What's the trap part? >> Remember a few weeks ago when Trump signed theou, he said, "Our oil is going to run out in four weeks, and I don't want to become Herbert Hoover." Well, Trump signed theou and the oil did not open. Now, we can argue why Hormuz didn't open, but those oil inventories, Richard, are running down on the same rate as before. Trump is going to become Herbert Hoover for sure. For sure. >> Hoover's name is is associated with poverty and misery in the United States. >> That That's exactly right. And it's because it was a global depression as well. It wasn't only in the United States. And what you are seeing here is there is real risk and I'm I'm not uh telling I don't think the econom nobody really knows how bad it's going to get but everybody knows uh that it's a matter of how bad it's not not bad. So as those oil inventories run down as Hormuz remains closed all of our buffers our spare gas that we kept in the garage to run the car if it ran out of out of gas that's gone Richard. So what's happening is the um the world's economy really is getting closer and closer to going off a cliff. It could happen in the middle of August according to the best experts. >> You think this reinvigorated war creates a new global depression? >> Uh it's the other way around. It was going to create it's going to look that way here to a lot of people, Richard, but the reality is Trump's anticipating that. I think this is what he told us two weeks ago. He was very forthright. He said, "I will sign theouou because I don't want there to be a great depression and I'll become Herbert Hoover." And then JD Vance gave long interviews where he said Trump told us to use theou to refill the oil uh inventories. It didn't happen. Which means the world's economy is it's like the ship on the Titanic hitting the iceberg. We are on the Titanic. We saw an iceberg and everybody said, "Don't hit that iceberg." and we're still going to the iceberg and now everybody's saying what are we going to do and also to be clear Richard I would not advise the president to be doing this uh restarting this war go down this road I am not advocating you just came back from Iran so the other the problem with the punishment campaigns that we inflicted on Iran is they were always going to stimulate large amounts of nationalist revenge uh that's what happened when Nazi Germany bombed London in World War II too. That's why the British firebombed cities. This was not some accident, okay? They wanted payback and they wanted to kill a million 900,000 German civilians. That's in the operational plans of Churchill. So, this was not some accident that happened. And what you're seeing here in Iran is the revenge factor is coming fast and furious. And and then when the Americans are killed, the American public will not back away. they will become more insensed themselves. And I've been warning about this for months on podcasts. People kept thinking, well, if there's some American casualties, this will make America pull back even more, right? No. >> So, what's stage four? >> Stage four is where we pull back. This is where we were uh President Trump tried to go initially here with theou. He was essentially saying to Iran, if you'll just let the straits open uh here, give me a fig leaf uh here some uh some way I can have a face saving way out. I'll I'll I'll sort of pull back. I'll even let you keep some of your uranium enriched uranium. Notice what he was talking about there as holding out the carrots. Well, what that is is allowing Iran to rise as the rising regional power. That's what stage four is. But this is that was always a tension. So once you're at stage two, there's a fork in the road. Either you do stage three, which is you take Hormuz back, or you do stage four, where you allow Iran to become the fourth center of world power. And what Trump did is he kind of dabbled with stage four, but he couldn't really bring himself to own the loss. That would mean because it would mean he would become not Herbert Hoover, but Lynden Johnson, the president during the Vietnam War, who was embarrassed so much we can't even remember his name for failing in Vietnam. So these were President Trump's choices. Does he want to become Herbert Hoover or Lyndon Johnson? But Iran is not a pipsqueak power. So I'm often hearing on the media, well this is a big power, United States against a small power. Iran's, as you know, 92 million people. They've got satellites. The idea that we're still talking about Iran as a pipsqueak power here is only setting the public up for not really understanding what's coming. And and the problem here is that uh got to keep in mind the Iran Iraq war, Iran went on for eight long years, hundreds of thousands of dead here. Um this was a grinding war of attrition uh here. And so the idea that Iran's just going to be scared of President Trump's tweets here. This just not realistic. We're knocking on the door of stage three and that door is starting to actually open >> to rewin a loss with more power and a slightly different strategy with Israel or alone. >> Oh, Israel could come in on multiple different ways. We're going to do what we did in 2003, which is what we're doing right now is telling them to stay out. The problem for Israel is Iran's not going to let them stay out. You see? So, this is not necessarily just up to Israel. See, we keep pretending, Richard, we're in control. No, we lost control on Feb 28. The first bomb that hit and killed that supreme leader, that's when Trump lost control. And he's been trying to get control back in for five months ever since. And he's got not gotten it back yet. And that's what's going on in the escalation trap.
I've just realized we need to talk more often. I'm glad you've got a a big and loyal uh following on Substack. It sounds like you got a very very active group there and have a community of people who are engaged. So, thank you very much for bringing us into your conversation and for having this conversation with us and for helping us see where you think this is going. It's uh it's been very illuminating. >> Real pleasure, Richard. Real pleasure to speak with you. >> I appreciate your time. Thank you.
So, that was Professor Robert Pap. He's very confident about where he sees this going. And many people I've spoken to are also convinced that this is heading in the wrong direction, that the US is heading back to war, that Israel might get involved again, uh that Iran could also uh fall victim to its own sense of hubris that Iran could try and overwin. So you could have a uh the United States trying to correct a loss and you could have Iran trying to overwin being too confident, too secure in their position that they make a mistake. So this will certainly be going for for some time, but it does seem like we're heading toward an escalation and it may be as the professor described an escalation trap. Thank you so much for listening and if you have any questions for next week, email us at theworlds sky.uk UK or comment on our YouTube channel where you can watch all of our episodes. I'll be back next week. Bye-bye.