Transcription
Hello, this is Groly. I hope you are doing well. We had on Sunday and Monday a very positive green reaction following the liquidation we experienced on Friday evening and its continuation on Saturday. And now, unfortunately, it looks like the party is over. Not exactly, it's mainly macroeconomics that is stirring a bit with an increase in tensions between China and the USA, where things will not go as simply as expected, despite what Trump tells us. Clearly, a bearish pressure on the CME, on BTC, on altcoins, we will talk about it and I will give you the key zones to hold. In the meantime, if you want to know more all the time, continuously and have access to all the free resources I make available, you have the Telegram which is in the comments in the description. I will make a little voice message after this video to explain a few more things. And we will start with the news which will be rather crypto here with our W, which is not insider trading, at least on paper. It seems CZ has found out who it was. It's a former exchange employee who owns a lot of BTC and plays against the market, and we see that he has put another 494 million dollars into positions. Naturally, he is in profit. You saw the drop we are currently experiencing. At the moment I am recording this video, 11 million PNL, so naturally, he is going down again with a drop that is structuring itself. Don't worry, I will give you the zones to watch very, very closely for a rebound because it is quite classic compared to the liquidation wicks as we are used to seeing them. And this means we have identical patterns. In the meantime, for the news, Hyperliquide has just launched a very important update. Globally, it positions itself as an architecture to offer perpetual futures in a decentralized way to anyone. For this, you need to stake 500,000 hype, approximately 20 million dollars, and we will share 50% of the volume and fees collected with the Hyperliquide platform. This is something that would be very interesting for Hype if it works and if there is real demand. That is the big question that will surely be asked. In the meantime, for other rather positive news, we have Bhutan, known here for mining BTC and having a very large crypto reserve, which is instantiating its national identity directly on Ethereum. And on the blockchain, it's a very good use of Ethereum and blockchain technology for a government. And it's good to see that there is a phase of real application in a country. It remains Bhutan, it remains small, we agree, but it's already a much larger sandbox than what we see in various tests at the moment. We continue with the news with Michael Saylor, who bought BTC again during the dip and who is communicating about his STRC. I'm not talking to you about it. I made a video specifically about it where I explain that he created a derivative product based on Bitcoin that allows investors to get a return of about 10%, here it's 10.25% per year, paid monthly, just by holding the asset. Something strong and powerful, mainly thanks to the strength of BTC over 3 to 5 years because we know that Bitcoin over 3 to 5 years is almost never negative, regardless of when you buy it. Alongside the news, because BTC is also in the spotlight, with Citi, the Wall Street giant, preparing to offer crypto custody for 2026, and thus for all of Wall Street. Here we no longer have only Coinbase, we will have Citi, which is once again truly the Wall Street institution, showing us once again the place Bitcoin holds compared to other cryptos directly in Wall Street's financial products in the coming years. So we are following the macro news, and that's what's causing problems. We still have an increase in the China-US confrontation, mainly due to rare earth elements and the beginning of an economic war here. Trump absolutely does not want it. China does not yield, and I really like the meme at the bottom with The Orange Wizard of Tariffs, who directly halves your portfolio as soon as he is put on the table. Yes, it hurts indeed. Naturally, bearish pressure at the opening on futures. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq, it's exactly the same. We are consolidating and erasing yesterday's candle. So we will see the opening of the American market, but it continues. There are high probabilities of retesting 6500 here on the S&P 500. It is imperative that this holds. If it doesn't hold, unfortunately, we will go to 6347, or even a bit lower, 6300. So that means another bearish retest on BTC. And if we add to that a speech from Jerome Powell that will arrive today, which will not necessarily be very positive, we could have strong pressure. We add that we are still in this shutdown scenario, still no way out unfortunately, and naturally, at some point, it weighs enormously on the traditional market and on the pricing of a potential impact on GDP. Yes, don't forget that it's an impact on national GDP in the long term, so naturally on the figures that are highly anticipated by the Fed here, but not only by all institutions and all investment funds globally. In the meantime, on BTC, naturally, there is less pressure than we might have had if we hadn't made this huge liquidation wick. We see that we are falling here. We have validated a short-term break of 114,000 dollars. We are calmly heading towards the 111,000 dollar range. 111,000 is an important level because it's the level where there's a CME gap. It's also the consolidation level we could have if we don't go back to rework the wick. Because it's important to understand that when we have a liquidation wick like this, it's highly probable, if we break this part, to go and seek the wick with levels I will give you shortly. The other important point is that there is a capital outflow mainly from ETFs. I will explain why in a moment, but 326 million dollars on BTC, on Ethereum, much more significant, 428 million dollars. Clearly, we are cutting some losses because yes, it's a reality, we are in losses where the paper hands, who are the hands that bought through the ETF. We had a lot of liquidity injections, especially in the previous weeks. We see it clearly at the end of September and beginning of October, a lot of liquidity injections, and unfortunately, this liquidity injection, we see that it was mainly in the top and upper part, and therefore it means they are directly underwater. Naturally, under pressure, and that means outflow. And that's exactly what we are seeing when we look at this chart. Generally, when we have bearish pressures here, it's symbolic to have, after a moment of volatility, whether it's upward or downward, something that will move the market. And what's interesting is that when we look at the paper traders, so those who are there for a very short time and who mainly use ETFs, are still mostly in the red. Whereas when we look at those who have been mainly on BTC for a while, they are still in profit and continue to be in profit no matter what happens. So there's a notion of temporality involved, and naturally a reaction of pricing to BTC's volatility with an outflow. We will recall that it is institutions that are mainly buying with ETFs. Still, for now, even if we are starting to see a bit of retail buying, it remains predominantly institutional, and naturally, they want to withdraw some cash when we see the volatility we've had and the effective fear of what's happening on the Nasdaq and the continuation of the shutdown. The other interesting point is when we look at the CME here, we see that we have hunted the low of Friday, meaning last week's low. An important zone, again, bearish continuation. We see that we are going to rework this zone which is important, which we had retested for the first time. And we have the CME gap around 111,000 here. An important gap. I think it's one of the key levels that will need to hold and see a bullish reaction. We'll see if it's a reaction that will aim for 116,500 to break through or just a continuation, but to have a CME gap that will work on what we purged last weekend with this lot, this lot, with perhaps a wick below 109 or 107, which would rework the liquidation wick we experienced this weekend. Okay, liquidation wick which will be found here. And naturally, when we have a large wick like this, it's highly probable to rework it. We know that when we have such a powerful and strong price movement with so much liquidation, it's highly probable to have a bullish reaction followed by a retest. If the bullish reaction holds, it's very positive. If unfortunately it doesn't hold and we are still predominantly in a downward trend, it implies that we will have a continuation of the movement with a potential retest of half of this wick, unfortunately. So that gives us around 106,000 dollars to watch very, very closely. In any case, we will follow it daily. And why are we talking about a market state? Because when we look a bit at the structure's regime, we see that we have quickly returned to a slightly more bearish phase. So this also means a phase of fear, and that's exactly what we are seeing with a bearish acceleration that is once again causing liquidations. 306 million dollars liquidated in longs. Yes, we continue to open long positions. Don't forget, psychology is very important. I told you this weekend that we were still seeing longs from people trying to recover, and that's exactly what we're seeing here. We are building longs around 110,000 or even a bit lower, 107, 108, or even 106,000, which are the levels we talked about regarding this wick. And we see that we are going to purge all the longs that were built during this recovery phase, meaning this recovery phase with a bullish reaction. We are going to seek. We'll see if the longs hold or not at that point. That will be a very positive signal. And the other thing I wanted to mention is that the dominance is rising again and retesting 5950. So we see that BTC is reacting much less strongly than the rest of the cryptos. This is classic, okay? In a movement, we had an increase in leverage. We are purging a large part of the leverage before being able to restructure something. So again, unfortunately, a short-term bearish continuation on the CME, which continues its bearish trend. We will potentially retest the 111 I told you about. We'll see the reaction, especially at the opening of Wall Street and during Jerome Powell's speech. Always very important. In any case, even if it continues to fall, it won't go much lower. So we will have to hold, and it's a question of psychology. Again, the retest of the wick, the 50%, if it holds, it's again very, very bullish for a bullish continuation, and that's the signal we absolutely want to see this week. For now, I wish you strength for this week, which will be complicated again, and we just hang on until the end of 2025. Don't forget, before you leave, like, subscribe if you liked this type of content, and we'll see you very soon.