Transcription
[Music] Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in good shape, that you have your little [unintelligible] perhaps very happy to find you for this Bitcoin journal of Thursday, October 2nd, 2025 and it's the 2nd day of October and it continues to the moon. It's as if Bitcoin said to itself, I'll wait for October 1st. It was on the starting block like that and as soon as the first day, the first minute after at 2:01 AM on October 1st, the opening of the candle, you see, because it's a bit agitated anyway, it's only been 2 days, there's still a lot left. Well, so very nice Bitcoin, push coin, push, it's very beautiful, but in addition, well, one could say yes, it's green, but behind the scenes, how is it going? Well, it's going well because look at the Bitcoin ETFs. It's madness. It's madness. We are at 1.5 billion dollars of Bitcoin purchases in 3 days. In 3 days. It's enormous. Enormous. If the week continues like this, we will be at 2.5 billion dollars of THUM purchases in a short week of Bicon. You see, at the Ethereum level, it's a bit more me. Monday was good, 546 million. Then you say, ah, that's it, it's coming back. Tuesday 127, Wednesday 80. You see? Whereas Bitcoin is 400 million, 675 million. Well, so it's deflating a bit, it was a party for 2 weeks, but the party ended quickly. Well, market, let's go back to the grid, it's normal, it's exploding. October has started. October to the moon, are we there? Ah, it remains possible. In any case, the coins have recovered the Kijun line. A resistance at 854 billion dollars. Well, can it go and reach this super Bollinger band at 923 billion dollars? Yes, clearly it can. It has broken the 50 RSI, it's pushing. Bullish crossover soon on the MACD. Can it push? Yes, at the structural level, well, it's expecting a small A, a small B, a small C, or it will be a regular like this to go and look below this low and then it will take off. So as long as it doesn't break 917, it can go back below 763 to make a small regular to just clean up the shorts, the longs, sorry, and take off again. On the other hand, can it make a running, break the old high and then do like this, deny it and continue to push? Yes, clearly it can. For now, it's quite nice if we look at our little bicon love. Ah, it's agitated since October 1st, it hasn't wasted time. It's quite agitated. It's on its super Bollinger band at $120,000. Here, everything will be decided because $120,000 is the super Bollinger band and it's also almost the top of the short zone. So if Bitcoin makes a green candle that explodes this short zone at $120,000, okay, and a second candle that confirms, always a second candle, because one candle is not enough. You need confirmation with the second one. What will happen? Well, the super Bollinger band will widen and Bitcoin will go into money mode. All the way up, you see, towards 124, 125. It can go as far as it wants. It can push to 130, we don't know, but it has pushed well, you see. Well, but it needs two green candles, and if it makes the two green candles to explode my super Bollinger, it pushes and it will break the short zone and it will go to a new all-time high, and we will be on the scenario. So remember, in recent weeks, the structure indicated two scenarios. First, small A, small B, boom, the small C that will directly break $107,000, a regular like this to explode it, first scenario. Scenario, we throw it in the trash because now we see this wave breaking the top. So knowing that we are on scenario number 2, let's talk about it too. So, small A, now B is decomposing into small A, small B, small C. Two solutions: either boom, it will fall. B finishes now. B will not break $124,000, and C will fall to go below 107. Or then B can be even more complex, that is to say an A then a new A, a B, a C, you see? To then, an A, a B, a C. And it can continue to zigzag on a running. That is to say, if it breaks $124,000, it's a running where this time wave C will not go below 107, it will perhaps go to the gap. Because we don't forget this little gap at $110,990, and at some point it will say, oh, don't forget. Yes. You see, it's like you forget your child, you take a plane, you forget your child. Well, it happens to everyone. No, it didn't happen to you? No, I'm kidding. It didn't happen to me. Well, so that's it. So there, directly, so in short, what is it in the short term? Small A, small B, small C where it falls directly, or it will go to make a running, that is to say, it will make a new all-time high and then there will still be a wave C, but which can stop at $110,000, you see? Because it won't go below 107 if it breaks there. For now, it's pushing, the RSI is pushing, the bulls are there for momentum, it's not kidding. So, where I put a small damper, it's on the liquidations. So, is there a gigantic cluster there to the north? Not really, there are 2 billion, let's say 3 billion if I round up to $121,000. Now, the big leverages are up to $121,658 to be precise. There are big short leverages there. So, can Bitcoin go and reach 100, let's round it to 122, nibble up to 123. Why not? We are still being careful because down below it's Babylon. I don't know if you've seen the movie Babylon, it starts, it's total orgy with the gentlemen, the ladies, lots of flour to make eggs and not to make [unintelligible]. You know what I mean? It's a big party. Well, it's the same here. Down south, it's a big party. You have everything there, you have trumpets, confetti, an all-you-can-eat buffet. So be careful, down south, there are almost 15 billion dollars to liquidate. If Bitcoin goes to $106,000. If it goes lower, we'll reach 20 billion. So you have to be careful, it's pushing, we're happy, we say "Yeah, October direction $150,000" but we can say "Ah, will the market really push above 122 when there's nothing between 123 and 131?" Well, it's empty. On the other hand, down south, it's a big party. Well, that's why you have to be careful with all these liquidities, and as long as Bitcoin doesn't break 124, it will go below 107, and if it breaks 124, it will still make a wave to eat that, but the wave could stop at the gap at $110,000. That's the idea. It doesn't change, anyway. We just see that as the days go by, more and more longs are accumulating down south. At the Ethereum level, it's recovering its 50-day moving average at $4,400. Bravo! It's recovering the 50 RSI, that's good. Bullish crossover on the MACD, that's good too. Well, for now, it's going up its own way, and well, be careful, as long as it doesn't break here, the $4,765 high, it will fall again to make another descent. Well, its structure is not beautiful. The most beautiful structure is Bitcoin's. It's him we're following. It's him we're following. It's the cleanest. Ethereum will follow, meaning if Bitcoin makes a new all-time high, it can make a new all-time high. If Bitcoin doesn't make a new all-time high, it will fall like everyone else. And where it can fall, because it looks good now. One can say yes, it can go, yes, it can go and reach the super Bollinger band at $4,790, and if it breaks $4,790, paf, it's off to make a new all-time high. Then, like Bitcoin, be careful, you see, there's a mini little cute cluster there around $4,500-$4,600, the big leverages are up to $4,005, but well, it can nibble $4,006 to finish the plate if you want. On the other hand, where it's really the dessert with the ice cream, the whipped cream, and then everything that goes with it, well, it's down south, you see, up to $3,895, there are about 9 billion dollars. So Ethereum to the Moon, Bitcoin to the Moon. Well, maybe not right away, you see, because it's still annoying to see so much liquidity. Then, you'll tell me, can the market still explode to the moon and leave everything down below? Well, it can, of course. It's just that since there's a lot of liquidity down below, you have to think that a reversal can happen because there are many, many billions down south. At the Solana level, Solana is very nice like Bitcoin and Ethereum today. It's very beautiful. It has recovered its Kijun at 222. Can it push up to its super Bollinger band at 257? Yes. Solana to the moon is when it breaks 257, the upper band will widen. It will go towards 300 or even higher. So that's beautiful, breaking the Kijun. It's beautiful, breaking the 50. Bullish crossover is coming soon on the MACD. So all that is beautiful, all that is good. Then Solana is like little Bitcoin and Ethereum, meaning Solana, as long as it doesn't break 253, we'll see it again below 190. So it can gain, gain. But if Bitcoin falls before $124,000, a new all-time high, boom, Solana will fall below 186. It's not a big deal, it will be a regular to take off even stronger. It will just be a small bearish wave. To do what? Well, to eat everything down south like Bitcoin and Ethereum. So, can Solana nibble up to 238? Yes, it can, there's a little bit, but the biggest part is below 200 dollars, much more. 1.8 billion up to 200 dollars. Whereas up to 238, there are about 300 million. You see the big difference, the big leverages are up to 231, a little bit of peanuts to eat at 235, but the billions are down south. That's why shouting To the Moon, we're happy about To the Moon. But maybe we shouldn't win yet, you see. XRP, same, very nice. It has recovered its Kijun and its 50-day moving average at 2.94. Next objective, the super Bollinger band at 314. Breaking 314, that's widening the super Bollinger band, and it's off to reach 3.50, 3.50, and 4 dollars. There, it's beautiful, it's beautiful, recovering the 50 Kijun, that's good, recovering the 50 RSI, that's good. Bullish crossover on the MACD, that's good. So it's good, it's good, it just broke the high here too at 3. And so, direction here, 313, simply now, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as long as it doesn't break here, 313, boom, it could go below 69, and if we look at its liquidities, it has, it has similarly something to eat. Now, the big leverages are up to 304, the little peanuts up to 310, if it really wants to eat everything, it goes up to 310, all that, there's a little less than 200 million, but where there is, well, almost 600 million, it's down south, paf, like everyone else. So, today, are cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, beautiful? Yes, what's happening since yesterday, today is beautiful. Can it continue to push? Yes, it can continue to push. I'm just adding a word of caution about the fact that there is a lot of liquidity down south, and at some point the market, well, if it ends, it will make a move to eat all the liquidity of everyone. So, you will have to remain cautious. After that, well, with the American government shutdown, there are no macro figures, so there are no specific bearish catalysts. Bullish catalysts, it's just that well, cryptos have corrected for some time, so now they are rising, and since it's October, many are driven by the fact that well, the fourth quarter is very positive, and in addition to that, we had catastrophic employment figures, and people are very happy that the country is in stagflation, they are very happy to see catastrophic figures because they only look at the drops in interest rates, it's a bit of nonsense, but well, investors do what they want. Well, so for now, well, Nvidia is saving everything, saving the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 a bit. So today, it opened in the green, to tell you, in fact, there is an appetite, I've been saying it for weeks and weeks, for me, it's my personal opinion, there is too much appetite in the stock market. For me, it's too much, we are in too much greed, too much euphoria, you see, there is an appetite that is a bit too much, and at some point the market will punish it. Well, we'll see, because an appetite when everything is good, everything is fine, everyone is happy that the little unicorns are singing and dancing and farting rainbows, it's fine. But an appetite where everyone is happy when there's fire everywhere, stagflation, recession, employment is not good, inflation is rising. I'm talking about the United States, in Europe, it's not good anyway. In France, even less so. Well, here, we can ask ourselves a few questions, you see, that's the idea. So, well, the S&P 500, a new all-time high, but it's correcting slightly, but nothing crazy. The Nasdaq is in mode, it's off to the moon. European tech is in mode, it's off to the moon. It's making crazy bullish gaps. Well, okay. Gold is correcting slightly, but still moon-bound. Silver is correcting. The barrel is smashing on the ground. Hello recession, good evening. Hello stagflation, good evening. That's not a problem, we're quite happy. Gas is exploding upwards. Well, listen, people are still bullish. Why? Because there will be an interest rate cut. When the country is on fire, employment is collapsing, and inflation is still there, don't worry, there are interest rate cuts, boo-hoo, you cut your finger a bit, don't worry, a small bandage, an interest rate cut, and everything is fine. You have hemorrhoids, you strained yourself too much recently, you ate Mexican, don't worry, the interest rate cut will solve all your problems. You have a sore throat, you shouted too much. A little gargle like that with a little interest rate cut, you won't feel anything anymore. There's no problem. Interest rate cuts are there to save everyone. Well, and so, Bitcoin, to the moon, MicroStrategy, to the moon, Marathon Digital, to the moon, the miners too on Bitcoin, most of the miners. At the bond market level. Well, the US 10-year yield is falling a bit, so that's good. As the yield falls, well, people are taking refuge a bit in stocks, in stocks. Well, it's going a bit into defensive stocks because when you see gold and metals rising and you see that they are buying Treasury bonds, whether it's the 30-year, the 20-year here, or the 10-year, it means they are going into defense. Well, investors are saying, "Whoa, this doesn't smell very good, I'm going to go for gold and Treasury bonds." Well, but some are in mode, it's just the stock market, we're looking for big returns and risk has gone up from 12. Well, and to finish, the dollar, a small green candle, but well, nothing special, it's a bit of noise. Why? Because for now, there are no major figures. We are waiting, we are waiting for bullish catalysts that will propel it even higher. Bearish catalysts, however, bullish catalysts are there. It's interest rate cuts, for example, the interest rate cut for the end of the month, October 29th, if I'm not mistaken. Yes, that's it, October 29th, 100% probability of an interest rate cut. Well, but will everything be priced in advance? You just need to watch out for a potential bearish catalyst. What could cause the market, the crypto market, all the liquidity down south, to go and look for it? That's what we need to see. If a bearish catalyst arrives, it could be ugly because there could be a cascade of long liquidations down south. Why? Because since it's a long frenzy here, all it takes is a bearish catalyst, bim, it gives you a wick like that, it will liquidate, liquidate, liquidate, liquidate. Long liquidation. Selling on the market, selling, selling, selling, selling, selling, which will make the price go down, down, down. Faced with this, some will be afraid. All of this, they will close their positions. So it will cause sales, sales, sales, sales, sales on the market, and it can happen very quickly. So, you just need to be careful that there is gunpowder. Someone just needs to make a spark, and paf, it will cause shockwaves. Well, thank you for listening, big kisses, be careful. See you tomorrow. Bye bye. [Music]