Transcription
China. It has been a while. It's projecting very strong ambition to dominate in the region. How do you handle this?
The Europeans, instead of sending a thank you note to China for investing in Africa, you are joining the United States in criticizing Chinese investment in Africa when it is against your own interest. You're being unpragmatic. You're sacrificing your own interest, which is bizarre. Why are you doing that?
And Asians look at Europe and say, "This 100 years ago, this continent could run the world, right?" I mean, European countries, I know Poland didn't colonize any countries, but you know, the British, the Dutch, the French, uh, the Belgians, they colonized the world. And today, Europe can't take care of itself, which is very, very strange.
I describe how European diplomats were extremely condescending in talking to Asians. "Oh, you poor countries, we successful wealthy European countries." Now, the era of condescension is over. I mean, sadly, if you look ahead for the future of Europe, I fear a very sad future for Europe.
Fore! Foreign! Foreign! Fore! So let's go into Asia itself. You are, uh, uh, you are active in Singapore, but you know very well other Asian countries. How do you see, being a small country, Singapore, but being still a member of ASEAN? How do you see China?
It's important for us to understand the longer history of Asia, right? And you know, uh, China has been the world's oldest continuous civilization, four to 5,000 years. And China's links with Southeast Asia go back at least 2,000 years. So there are long historical relationships between Southeast Asia and China, and by the way, also with India. And something that may surprise, uh, your viewers or listeners, uh, is that among the 10 ASEAN countries, Southeast Asian countries, nine have an Indic script. So culturally, the Southeast Asian countries are closer to India than they are to China. But today, definitely, uh, China's influence in Southeast Asia is much greater. In fact, China's trade with Southeast Asia in the year 2000 was only $40 billion. But by 2020, that number, uh, had reached $975 billion. Can you imagine going from $40 billion in the year 2000 to $975 billion in actually in 2022? And that's amazing, right? Amazing.
So what does it mean for you? What don't you see that that's a domination instead of a friendly relationship?
Uh, no. Well, it's, you know, uh, unlike Europe, which doesn't know how to manage its neighboring great powers, we have managed to enjoy good relations with our neighboring great powers. And you know, I'm sure you heard of Vietnam. You know, Vietnam has had a very long relationship, uh, with China. And Vietnam has been, by the way, Vietnam was um, occupied by China only for 10,000 years, right? The Vietnamese understand China. You know what they say in Vietnam? They say that to become the leader of Vietnam, you must be able to stand up to China and you must...
What does it mean? What does...
...and you must be able to get along with China.
But what does it mean in practice? How, how a little Singapore or much larger Vietnam, how you see the right relationship with this giant?
Well, we have, we have, I can tell you, as of now, excellent relations. China's growth has enabled the ASEAN countries to also grow. Let me give you another statistic. In the year 2000, uh, Japan's economy, you mentioned Japan earlier, was eight, eight times bigger than ASEAN's economy. Now, Japan is only 1.3 times bigger. By 2030, ASEAN will be bigger than Japan, you know.
So, what, what Europeans got to understand is that there's a culture of pragmatism among Asian countries. We don't, we don't make loud statements. We don't give speeches. We don't claim we're going to save the world, but we just perform better than any other region in the world. So, you know, there, the Europeans will find it difficult to accept the idea that they should now begin to learn lessons from Asia. But actually, the time has come for Europeans to learn to be as pragmatic as Asian countries because if Europe, if the, if Europe does not become pragmatic, it will have a very difficult future ahead for Europe.
What do you mean to be pragmatic, uh, from the European side vis-à-vis China?
Oh, not just vis-à-vis. It's important for Europe to work out a comprehensive long-term strategy of what are the biggest threats and opportunities for Europe over the next 10 to 20 years or 30 years. And the biggest threat to Europe is going to come from the demographic explosion in Africa. Right? In the year 1950, Africa's population was half that of Europe. Today, Africa's population is two and a half times the size of Europe. By 2100, Africa's population will be 10 times the size of Europe. So you should focus your strategic sights on how you develop Africa. And here, even though Chinese investment in Africa is creating jobs for Africans and keeping Africans in Africa, the Europeans, instead of sending a thank you note to China for saying, "Thank you, China, for investing in Africa," you are joining the United States in criticizing Chinese investment in Africa when it is against your own interest. You're being unpragmatic. You're sacrificing your own interest, which is bizarre. Why are you doing that?
And Asians look at Europe and say, "This 100 years ago, this continent could run the world, right?" I mean, European countries, I know Poland didn't colonize any countries, but you know, the British, the Dutch, the French, uh, the Belgians, they colonized the world. And today, Europe can't take care of itself, which is very, very strange.
So I think what Europeans need to do is to become a bit more humble and modest and ask itself whether it can learn lessons from other parts of the world on how to manage things. So lessons from, uh, Singapore, from you, vis-à-vis...
I would say lessons from ASEAN, the regional organization that I mentioned, whose economic growth has been so dramatic. If Europe is looking for a natural partner in Asia, the natural partner is not China, which will become much bigger than Europe. I think not even, uh, India. Probably the natural partner is Southeast Asia because we are also a multilateral organization. We are growing well. And if you partner ASEAN, ASEAN opens the door to the rest of Asia. If you want to enter Asia, you must find the right door. And the right door is Southeast Asia. Because Southeast Asian economies, compared to the Chinese economy, compared to the Indian economy, are much more open. The world's largest free trade agreement, which every European should know about, is called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which involves the 10 ASEAN countries plus China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand. And that world's largest free trade agreement was launched by ASEAN, not by China, not by India. So it's important for Europeans to develop a very sophisticated and nuanced view of Asia. And you shouldn't just focus on the two giants, China and India, alone.
So once again, if I may understand your vision of the world in the future. From one side, you say that there will be only three players as far as the top world's economies: India, China, and the US. But from the other side, you are mentioning ASEAN and the growing importance of other players in Asia. So how Europe should really, I mean, focus on India is not in ASEAN. China is not in ASEAN. India and China, both are very promising. Or maybe we should choose India or China?
Well, I, I would say it would be a huge mistake to choose India or to choose China. You should embrace all of Asia because remember, Asia is still the most populous continent. It has 55% of the world's population. And Asia is becoming integrated in many ways. But if you knock on the door of China and you knock on the door of India, it'd be very difficult. You knock on the door of ASEAN, ASEAN opens the door to Asia. And you got to, you got to understand the chemistry within Asia, how Asians think, how Asians operate. And this is where you'll find Southeast Asia the most congenial place for you to do business and to integrate, uh, with Asia. So we, by the way, are working very hard to ensure that we grow, uh, with the rest of Asia. And we want Europe to be part of the growth story. And you should definitely improve your ties with China. You should definitely improve your ties with India. But I would say that if you want to understand Asia as a whole, it's easier to do it through Southeast Asia because Southeast Asia is, by the way, the most diverse region on planet Earth. Right out of, out of 750 million, 700 million people, you have 250 million Muslims, 150 million Christians, 150 million Buddhist, Mahayana Buddhist, Hinayana Buddhist, you have Taoists, you have Confucianists, you have Hindus, and you have lots of communists too in Southeast Asia. So if you want to understand the chemistry of Asia, how people think, how people see the world, come to Southeast Asia, and you'll learn a hell of a lot about Asia.
Okay. So during this process of learning from you, I still don't understand how you have this pragmatic approach towards much bigger countries, especially China, but also India. So in what way you fit into the, uh, ambitions of these countries? India maybe it's different than China. China, it has been a while. It's projecting very strong ambition to dominate in the region. How do you handle this?
Well, you know, I must emphasize to you that ASEAN doesn't just, doesn't have choice with China and India. It also has very close ties with the United States of America. And one, let me give you one statistic that will shock you. Okay? The Chinese economy, much bigger than ASEAN's economy. Japan's economy is still bigger than ASEAN's economy. South Korea is, you know, not, not, not that big. But the Indian economy is the same size as ASEAN. Do you know that the United States of America has invested more in Southeast Asia than it has in China, Japan, South Korea, and India combined? Isn't that shocking? So where is Europe? Why is the United States of America investing more in Southeast Asia than China, Japan, South Korea, and India combined, and Europe is not here? So this is what I mean. You got to understand the complexity of Asia. We, we know how to handle the giants. We, we have, by the way, also very close relations with Japan. You'll be astonished. So, you know, you must learn the art of being able to handle many different powers who are very different, but with a sophistication and a delicacy that Europeans got to learn because you see the world in very black and white terms. The world is becoming a much more complex world. You know, I, I say that the future of the world will be a 3M world: will be multi-civilizational, multi-polar, multilateral. And you know what? The best multi-civilizational laboratory in the world is ASEAN, Southeast Asia. All the major civilizations you can find in Southeast Asia. You can't find them in Europe. Europe only has one civilization. So you got to enter, Europe has now got to change its mind and enter a multi-civilizational world. And, and you know what? The best place to learn to handle different civilizations is Southeast Asia. So this is quite amazing how ignorant, uh, Europe is in general about this region. To us, it's maybe the certain approach that we are used to be a superpower ourselves, especially Western Europe, and we are thinking still the same way. So I want to ask you, in the future, maybe not now, but in the future, do you think that Asian countries, Asian powers, not only ASEAN, but also China, India, will do without Europe at all? Europe will be irrelevant for you?
No, we want Europe to be relevant. We want to work with Europe. We want to partner you in businesses and other things. But for this to happen, Europe has got to start to start to learn how to treat Asians as their equals. I can tell you honestly, in my, in my memoir, "Living the Asian Century," which I have just published, which I hope to come and launch in Poland sometime, I describe how European diplomats were extremely condescending in talking to Asians. "Oh, you poor countries, we successful wealthy European countries." Now, the era of condescension is over. I mean, sadly, if you look, if you look ahead for the future of Europe, I fear a very sad future for Europe because you clearly are not making the strategic adjustments to live in a much more competitive world and develop independent, autonomous strategic policy of your own. Functionally, the European Union, which used to be an independent strategic pole in the world, has become, in many ways, in many critical ways, an extension of American foreign policy. In some areas, that may be good. And it's good that you have a good, it's good that you have a strong transatlantic alliance. But it's also good for Europe to develop its own autonomous strategic identity, what it stands for, and how we will work with the rest of the world. In some ways similarly as the United States, in some ways different. So, for example, we in Southeast Asia, we have very close ties with the United States. The United States invested more in us, as I said, than China, Japan, South Korea, and India combined. But we also know how to create an independent position of our own. So we will develop our independent policies towards China, and our policies towards China are not going to be influenced by the United States. So you see, this is what you need to develop some degree of independence and sophistication in managing the new world that is coming.
But last question I have to put to you. We are talking mainly about economy, but let's not forget the political aspect. Uh, US-China rivalry will remain with us, whoever wins the American elections. It will be a problem for both Europe and Asian countries other than China. How do you think we should handle this rivalry and how we can, uh, we can continue doing business with China, doing trade with China without having the consequences of growing political, uh, assertive politics of this giant?
Well, uh, that's why I wrote my book, uh, "Has China Won?", which I believe has been published in Polish, if I'm not mistaken.
Yes.
I think the US, you, you are absolutely right, by the way. The US-China contest will accelerate over the next 10 years, and you're, uh, absolutely right that it will affect all of us, and we have to work out our policies. So we in ASEAN have made it very clear that we want to be good friends with the United States and we want to be good friends with China, and we won't take sides. And I think this is where Europe's got to figure out how, how it, uh, how it finds an independent policy of its own because at the end of the day, it would be unwise for the European Union to be caught in a, in a hostile relationship, uh, with China. You know, the New York Times just published an article describing how, surprisingly, the New York Times published an article saying how China is saving planet Earth with its investments in green technology. Now, with China working so hard to fight against climate change, and with Europe working so hard to fight against climate change, your natural partner in fighting climate change, one of the most important ones, is China. So there are many areas in which China and Europe can still collaborate and work together. And you, but you what you do need to have is leaders in Europe who are far-sighted, who can think long-term strategically, and have a sophisticated understanding of the world. But unfortunately, in my last one-on-one conversation with Henry Kissinger in his office in October 2022, I can tell you now that he's passed away, he was very pessimistic about the quality of mind of European leaders. He felt that of not thinking long-term, not thinking strategically about Europe's future. So this is where I hope that the comments I'm making are intended to help Europe work out its future in a much more difficult and challenging world.
So last question, professor, I have to handle this with you together. We don't have only China in Asia. We also have India and growing aspirations of this continent. India and China are not really very good friends. Their interests are clashing. They don't have even a border issue resolved finally. How do you see the rivalry between India and China being, uh, resolved, and how do you see also the relations and the consequences of this for ASEAN countries?
You, you are absolutely right. Relations between China and India, they're not bad. They're very bad indeed. They are very challenging, right? And you see, we know that. But we also know how to work with both China and India, even though their relations are very bad. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has just come to Southeast Asia, you know. So I think this is where you got to understand it's a very complex world. But at the same time, India wants to become a manufacturing power. Now, for India to become a manufacturing power, you know, in any field, chips, computers, washing machines, refrigerators, whatever, you know where the components come from? They come from China. And even though relations between China and India are bad, trade between China and India has grown because India knows that it has to get components from China. So this is an example of Asian pragmatism.
Well, in the same time, India banned TikTok and other Chinese applications.
Absolutely. Absolutely. That's not surprising at all. And you see, nothing is black and white. So you see that India is also a member with China in BRICS. Now, the G7 is a sunset organization, and BRICS is a sunrise organization. That's the difference. And India and China are members of BRICS.
Forchech. Fore Fore Fore speech.