Transcription
Hello to all of you. I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the Friday, October 31st brief, it is 8:44 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the Whales are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. We had a dump on Bitcoin, which was quite unexpected. I expected a dump a bit later, particularly in this FVGH4. We did not reach the FVGH4, so there were no shorts. On the other hand, I attempted a long, I got stopped out, so it's not very, very serious. But overall, I think we still have a structure that is rather clean on the bottom, but we remain in a bearish structure on H4. So, we still need to be careful. This means that we can open longs but we must not be greedy as long as the trend does not become completely bullish. And currently, well, we are, we remain bearish. We validated our trend change right here, whether in H4 or etc. H4, we are bearish, indeed. We validate. So our trend change, the real trend change, we validate it here. I don't know why my indicator marks it here, but so we have a trend change here, but the real one is here. And so we have our trend change here and then we have our break of structure that acts here. So this is a real trend change. So we could simply come back to look for this FVG here to then go a bit lower. And so this could be really interesting given that we also have an IFVG that is microscopic but it has the merit of being there. So if we look, we zoom in a little, between $11181 and $112000, we have an IFVG that is present. So this could clearly be the zone in which we could turn around. And there are other, there are other things that could tell us "OK, we can turn around here." So this could be interesting, it could be a real snipe to come and look for this entry there because, well, it doesn't really leave much room for anything else. So logically, we could come and look for this zone. Now, well, we must keep in mind that we remain bearish on H4. So personally, I will not attempt a long on this. In terms of economic news, today we will have European inflation at 11 AM. So clearly, it's not necessarily the most impactful thing, but well, that's about all we will have otherwise. In terms of crypto bubble, what we see is that we have red everywhere. We have, really, altcoins that have taken a very hard hit, notably the pump, the Aster, the Pit, the Pengue, the Jup, etc. And we have three, three irreductible Gauls who are performing well, notably the ZCK, the Reain, and the M. The ZCK performs really, really well when Bitcoin bounces. So, there might be opportunities to be had on H4 on AVG H4 on scalping. This could be really interesting. In terms of funding open interest, what we see is that we had a complete rect on this bounce. So right here, we had closures, so these are short closures given that we see a rise in open interest with a dump of funding. This means that these are essentially short closures. So there are not many people left in short, and this must be noted because when there are not many people left in short, it means that Coin Glace liquidations are likely distorted. So all the liquidations that are here are likely distorted given that the orders are no longer current. So be careful about this. You should not necessarily trade only liquidations, you really need to link them with open interest and funding. And here we clearly see that well, many shorts have closed. And if we look at the aggregated funding and the aggregated open interest, so this includes all the open interest from all exchanges and all the funding from all exchanges, it averages everything. Well, clearly we see that it is essentially longs that are being opened right here. So if we look right here, we have a rise in open interest here with a rise in funding. This means that here longs have been opened. And here it was essentially shorts. But well, we still see that the funding is increasing little by little on the large open interest wicks. So clearly, it's a bit of a trap. We still see that overall it's longs that have been opened, and so this must be taken into account. So yes, we still have liquidations on the rise, but we still have a majority of people opening longs, and this must be taken very seriously. If we look at what the Whales are doing, the Whales bought this movement. So this is rather interesting, but we are not seeing massive purchases like we could have seen on certain bottoms. I will still show you for example in H1 on certain bottoms like this one for example. Hop. So I will zoom out a bit so you understand well. We are on this. We are on this. There. Here we were, so we are on purchases representing about $80 million on this wick. And we are clearly in a bearish trend, indeed, we can, we can test it on the Whales. However, when we looked before, well, we were clearly on bullish trends at the Whale level. This means that we were on real bottoms, but the Whales continued to accumulate, and here overall the Whales continue to sell. So even if we had a bounce, we see it very well for example here, we had Whale purchases, but overall then we went bearish on this and we went down again. So as long as I don't see purchases of more than $100 million from the Whales, clearly I will not start opening longs. Well, what we should see is really something where we break and, moreover, we see a bullish trend again at the Whale level where they are accumulating, and ideally, we see a range on this. And if we see a range, well clearly it means that the Whales are accumulating in anticipation of a bullish movement, and so we could potentially have a rise. But currently, what we see is that well, we are rather in a completely bearish trend, indeed. We are just here. We could very well have sales again from the Whales. Knowing that overall the ideal is that the Whales buy during the US opening, given that they are the ones who somewhat make the market. So clearly, well, we had, we had elements that indicate that we are still in a bearish trend and that the spot market is not buying. If we look at the retail level, the retail investors are buying absolutely everything that moves. So it's not necessarily the most bullish thing because they are not the ones who maintain the price, clearly, it's really the Whales. And the micro Whales are only selling. So we have no bullish elements currently, whether in spot or etc. We even see that well, we have a big divergence between what is happening between the price and the Whales, given that here we made a lower low. So logically, we were supposed to come and look for a lower low. So clearly, well, this is rather interesting. On the technical level, what I think is that it is probable that we will come into this FVG right here. So the FVG and IFVG H4 that we have in this zone. It doesn't quite represent the zone if I'm not mistaken. We must be a little bit below. It's something close. So we could come and wick into the OTE zone at $112,300 plus the H4 FVG plus we have liquidations to look for in this zone even if I don't know if they are still valid given that Coin Glace does not update. So $112,81, we look at $112,81, we have liquidity clusters. So why not come and look for the first clusters and then, in any case, as long as we don't go above $116,000 or we linger a bit in this zone, in fact, what will be needed is either we pump and we come and look for this zone there and then I will switch to bullish, or simply we range a bit and then we validate a trend change. We validate an H4 trend change. Here, we see Whales buying, shorts opening, and potentially, I will switch to long. But for now, I will focus on short given that well, we have an H4 trend that is bearish, we have strong selling pressure, we have people longing with high leverage on all the bottoms, and clearly, well, we don't necessarily have macroeconomic biases that are bullish currently. So clearly, well, I think that if we come and look for this zone of $112,000, I will attempt a short in this zone, and I think it will be interesting to come and look for the zone of $103,000, given that we have quite a few biases that indicate that we could come and look for this zone. So well, as long as we don't validate above $116,400, I remain bearish. Unless we validate a trend change on H4 here. Then, I will become bullish and I will potentially enter an FVG. And then to be able to target the zone I was talking about, $118,975, given that I still have it in mind and I think that at one point or another, we will come and look for this zone. So if it's not today, it will perhaps be next week, perhaps in 2 weeks, etc. In any case, this zone should be taken, even if we go lower. So in this zone, logically, we should come and look for the zone of $118,000 at one point or another, given that we have quite a lot of liquidity. So it's the zone, we front-run the zone when we want to dump in general, we always come and look for the OTE zone at one point or another. And consequently, well, this is also the IFVG that we have here. There is quite a lot of liquidation in this zone, and so consequently, it would be logical to come and look for it at one point or another. In any case, for now, I remain bearish. I will not necessarily aim for long, even if the RR could be good. I think we can make a lower low given that the bottom for me is not ultra clean, even if we have cleaned the lows that we had right here, we have cleaned what we had here, well, we have not necessarily cleaned these ones, we bounced just before. Clearly, well, we know that we have quite a lot of liquidity in these two lows here. So it would have been obvious to simply wick in this style. After that, Bitcoin has accustomed us to somewhat messy bottoms for the past few months. So clearly, it's possible to bounce now. But in any case, without a setup, I will not open a long. Well, I have given you the plan. I hope you can adapt yours accordingly. I wish you a very good day. We will meet again tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves. M.