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Konstantinovka Falling, Russia Closing in on Sumy w/ Stanislav Krapivnik

The Duran30:55

Transcription

All right, I am here with Stannislav. Stannislav, how are you doing? Where can people follow your work?

Doing excellent. Uh it's a nice sunny day outside, 30 something degrees, so you know, feels like summer. Uh and speaking of summer, uh on something totally different. Yeah, you can find my work at uh on Substack at Zmeich uh on X at Stanisimnik. We couldn't fit the whole name in. and on uh YouTube at Mr. Slavic Man. Slavic with a K all one word. Uh and on Telegram Stasnat is the Russian channel and STS was there is the English language channel.

All right, those links are in the description box down below. Stannislav, let's talk about what is happening in Ukraine on the front lines. just want to start there and then maybe maybe talk a little bit about what is what is happening in uh in the Kremlin and what's going on with uh with the drones and stuff like that.

So what is. Yeah, wherever you want to begin. Do you want to do you want to begin with with the Kremlin and the drones or do you want to begin with with what's happening on the front line?

Let's start with the front line. Um I'm I'm sorry to report it's a total collapse. The Ukrainians are just outside of Moscow. I'm going to go dig my trench now and prepare the final stand.

The news.

Yeah. Right. The the two hot areas are that that the news does not report on that the collective west media does not report on is Constantinfka and uh and Leman and u stalemate. True. But th those are the I think those are the ones that people are familiar with. But uh tell us what's what's happening on the front line.

Yep. Yep. And and by the way, I'm I'm bringing in some more uh I'm planning on going down soon and bring in some more people for for the soldiers to eat because you know we're also out of food. Uh and all the other western propag which you and Alex you're absolutely right. What you will never hear about uh you'll hear about uh Ukraine starting this drone offensive. What you don't hear about is it's it's a basically a terrorist drone offensive because they're targeting civilians more than normally. But you don't hear about uh Constantino getting ready to fall. What you did here last week was uh from the Ukrainian side, you know, we may have to evacuate Mirad, otherwise known as Dimmitra. That's right. Last week, they admitted they may have to evacuate Mira. Yeah, they were surrounded and and wiped out six months ago in Mirad, but who's counting? Carrier and Pigeon or or trench rat run slowly to KV. Uh so yes, they they suddenly remember that we we may have to evacuate Mirra. So if you're following the western news, you're at least 6 months behind reality uh if not absolutely beyond the pale of reality. Constantinofka is 80% of Russian hands uh counting the big uh enclave of Ukrainian soldiers in the souththeast of a city that are surrounded and they're not getting out. Uh Russia's continuing to advance from the north and the northwestwards and southwestwards around the city. So it's got it the next pinchers coming up to take the uh the northern 20% of the city. Um and then because Kstatka if you're looking at is right here. Right here you have Djinka. Right here you have uh Kamatsurk and right here you have Slidinsk forming this basically a wall of of one big urban urban conglomeration. Very little distance between uh the cities. They've kind of grown into each other. Uh but you can now go around that wall once Constantinople falls fully. You can go to the south and around the back side of Dujena. So that that makes it a very big problem for the Ukrainians. On top of that, once Constantinovka falls, uh all the main routes of supply for that those three that that last wall, uh they all come in uh through drone laden roads. So you started to cut them off from logistics. Uh and why it's a it's a fortress because these were the three cities the last three cities in Ukrainian hands that they've been preparing since 2014. Uh Slim we know is where the actual first fighting started not the first rebellion that was put down very very uh bloody by the Esbu picking people off the street who were leading uh voices and just taking them to the woods and shooting them back of the head. Uh and they weren't even uh bothering with uh with any kind of mass graves. They're just dumping bodies all over the woods outside of Hikov. And then Marupal got put down with actual uh armored personnel carriers and lots of gunfire. But Slavins was where they broke their teeth uh putting it down which brought the time for Detskin Lugans to get organized and the rest is history as we say. So that's the those three towns are fortified. They're very fortified. Uh they've been pouring rebarbed concrete, setting up bunkers, tunnels, etc. for the last uh well since since 2014 when when they couldn't take Luganski and easily and they figured out that this was going to be something long. So they started developing defense. uh other otherwise if you look at the defensive positions in places like Khadikov uh in uh uh Zaparoia they're relatively light positions cuz they're they're been they were dug over the last couple years dug under fire uh they don't have the big uh concrete pores uh they're more field positions uh field trench positions so those three cities are falling lean on the north which is the entry point to Sliminsk it was by the way in World War II also. This is the way the Red Army liberated the entire conglomeration was they went through Kasnyan which places you on the high ground for artillery over Slavinsk and also for drones. Uh it gives you a good view of Slavinsk down the road and and allows you to suppress uh the the enemy in that population point a lot easier. So Ken Leman is basically surrounded. has been cut off uh by by from its supplier lines uh by drones and by direct routes being cut. And yesterday there was news that Russian forces broke through in the northern side and possibly took all of the northern side of Kiman. So that leaves about a third of the city uh in Ukrainian hands and they're out of ammo and and very quickly running out of food. Uh so when that goes and it will go that puts additional pressure of both direct attack uh going downhill and artillery and drone control over that three city conglomeration from the north and Russian forces are about 5 six kilometers east of of that line as it is uh of the chromat of the Durinka Kmatorsklavit line and approaching the edges of the city. Uh so that that portion I mean that that's once that's done Detska is done. I mean the DNR as far as liberation of any DNR uh Russian force will continue of course at this point I mean war aims have changed uh whether anybody's saying directly but they have and Russian force will continue liberating territory Russian territory in Yeprovska they'll continue moving into deeper particularly since Haidikov is uh using civilians and civilian infrastructure is what they're using to fire into uh Belg uh into direct city center. It's 40 km from city center to city center. These are two cities that are relatively close together. So Russia forces will continue expanding their territories in Khikov. Uh and who knows there may be a people's republic of pretty soon uh at this rate. Um and going further north we have Sunumi. Uh why Sumi? Sunumi is a very it's it's an open city of about 200,000 people. I'm not quite sure how much of that population is still in place. uh and it is a city that's very flat uh very hard to defend but it is a logistical hub for Chernig and then Kiev and going down toward Khikov and coming up. So if you can cut Sunumi you cut Khikov off from supply from the northwest. Uh and Hardikov is only going to have supply for the south which goes across uh uh the river. There's a a lot of bridges that have to be crossed. So that uh that's an area that can be cut off later on as the Russian forces uh get closer to Haidikov. By the way, Haidikov, just to uh to understand, and this is the future of all of Ukraine, Khikov is now actively press ganging women, the Ukrainian authorities press gang young women to throw them to the front.

And what we've seen across Ukraine.

According to which according to which sources, like these Ukrainian sources as well or.

Local local local Ukrainians. This is what's coming out that they've started. Well, they're putting up a lot of uh posters and a lot of billboards all over Ukraine that you're a Ukrainian woman, your your duties to uh at the front to defend uh Ukraine. Those are still they're not press ganging women in the rest of Ukraine, but in Hikov, they're running out of men. So, they've started press ganging women uh young women. It'll be a fight to the last uh Russian of Ukrainian passport holder. I mean that that city is those cities are absolutely Russian ethnic Russian areas. So that that's the situation we have in Kharkov at the moment. Sunumi as I was saying the Russian forces in the north are infiltrating through the forests that lead up right up to the edges of Sunumi. Uh because in the green uh drones are very limited. Drones are limited in forested areas anyways because, you know, branches and drones don't go together. As anybody's ever had a toy drone found out very quickly, but when it's green, it makes it not just hard to hit targets on the ground with a drone. It makes it hard to figure out where they're at. The the canopy provides a very good camouflage or or cover. So, Russian tro forces are using those force. They've gone through the second line of defense. The next line of defense is the city itself. and they're pro somewhere between five to eight kilometers out. Uh they're not exactly advertising, but they're moving through that forested area. So the way things are going, uh they by the end of the month be before the middle of next month, Sunumi may start being invested by Russian forces at least the south the north east of Sunumi. Uh we'll we'll see how long Sunumi can hold out as as a very flat and open city. That's that's the area that that's the area there. Um and again, Ukraine what what Ukraine's doing uh is drawing attention away by doing terror. Uh they just recently hit a passenger train. They've hit several buses, one of which in uh that was going through DNR, not in Detsk itself. I think it was a mafka or somewhere right beside MFKA. Uh there were seven people or seven or eight people. I've seen different reports that died uh either in their sleep from the explosion or from the fire and the and the bus and another 11 that were injured plus of 46 civilians uh going south. Uh they've hit a lot of cars. I had friends uh come they did a run into Zaparosia to deliver some uh uh some items. We'll just leave it at that. Uh they're both milit former milit well officers, retired officers, so they don't didn't freak out. But as they're going back up the Marupople uh highway, this is a four-lane highway, uh two lanes in each direction. The Ukrainians are doing remote mining of that highway. So they fly in a drone, drop a mine, and fly out. Considering 98 plus% of that traffic is civilian, uh you know, the car in front of them blew up on one of those mines. Just civilians, uh you know, civilian family.

Okay. Um driving past.

Right? Uh Putin at uh at the St. Petersburg forum. He he was very confident uh when he was talking about the situation on the front. He said that Russia is advancing across the entire front line. Uh would you would you agree with with his assessment?

Um most of the front line uh there where are where.

Yeah, where are their difficulties?

There are two areas. uh one it's not a difficulty they're just not concentrating on and that's that's the areas west of uh formerly known Pakovsk uh which is now Kasnaris again uh they there's some it's more stationary warfare I think because most of the resources in that area going into the Constantina and then up into the chromatin conglomeration conglomeration uh so there's not that much push there's a little push to expand uh more like a more buffer zone uh for Pakovsk, but it's not a active advancement. The other location is in Zaporosia or in this case uh western central Zapperosia where the Ukrainians launched a counter offensive. They pushed the Russian forces. Russian forces were 10 km away from Zaparosia city uh on and an estuary and they captured a bridges across the Ukrainians launched a a big uh uh emergency counter offensive. They pushed Russian forces back about 4 kilometers and they've stopped. They they can't go any further now. They're steadily being rolled back up northwards. The Ukrainians are much better at grabbing land than the Russians. I'll admit that. Of course, the cost of grabbing that land means they they they can't hold that land once uh they run out of steam. And they always run out of steam because they don't give a damn how many casualties are taken. Uh these are mostly the suicide squads. These are the guys that get press ganged that are about 35 and older or have medical conditions. They're good for one good harra. So they toss them in with no pity. Doesn't they don't count the dead. They don't care how many of them ever come home because they're throwaway infantry in this case. They toss them in there. They use up a lot of vehicles and a lot of men uh to grab a lot of land and then they suddenly get rolled back up which we've seen this uh in the two previous Zapper Zaparoia offensives. One was stopped almost instantly uh near Gulip and it's been rolled back and Russia has advanced. They Russia took Gulipolski uh not to be confused with Gulip. I know these names, they all sound uh they start to sound the same. Which is to the west of Gula Pa and is now about 8 kilometers east and northeast of Arohava. Aroava is the last fortified big town uh south of Zaparo. There's a bunch of small villages to the north of that. Uh but that's the last big fortified town. Uh and it's been surrounded from three directions. Uh there's a it's a long town along N08 highway uh and to the south of it is Malat Tamotka which is uh about half taken by Russian forces. It's a satellite town of that and Russian forces are also to the west about 8 km out and closing another in the east about 8 km in closing. So basically the Aria was already under uh tactical encirclement because uh N08 is under drone control. So they can't and and direct artillery control too. It's 8 km 8 n km from the edges of the front line. So they can't get a lot of uh vehicles in or out. Uh so they're kind of stuck there. But once that goes, that's your last big armored area. Uh and it looks like at the rate particularly in the east that Russian forces are advancing maybe another two weeks to three weeks because uh Gulki was about the last major village along the way to Ayokova. There's one more uh in that area that needs to get taken. And they're basically got a free uh advance across fields uh right on up to uh eastern uh uh eastern um so the two areas that aren't advancing particularly is uh west of where the Ukrainian counter offensive just got stopped. Now more likely sooner sooner than later in western centralia that's going to start rolling back. Uh there's already signs that that's what's happening. Russia's reathering forces in that area and it's going to start pushing them back. Ukraine can do these localized uh counteroffensives, but they can't do a generalized because they're out of troops. Uh if if you noticed every year these counter offensives, they get smaller and smaller uh in scope. They get lot a lot more PR screams for a very short period of time, but they they do get smaller and smaller uh after their big uh Rabuchina counter offensive where they put down uh they lost about 85,000 dead to take 120 square kilometers which is 10 by 12 or actually 12 by 10. Not much land.

Yeah. Russia Russia defeated them there. No doubt about it.

Yeah. That that counter offensive did not go anywhere. So, um, anyway, uh, what is, uh, what's going on with, uh, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and this meeting that is taking place right now as we're recording this video actually with, uh, the French, UK, and the uh, the German ambassadors in Russia. Have you heard about this? They requested a meeting with Lavro with with the Minister of Foreign Affairs. I don't want to say Lavough specifically, but this is at their request. They wanted to go to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and have a meeting. What do you think is going on? If you had to take a guess.

Well, they definitely want talks. Uh, that's obvious enough. Um, if I had to guess, well, it's hard to guess because on the one side, you got to wonder how much is bluster and how much is is is re reality or in this case reality in their minds because if you look at what the EU officials are constantly saying is we're going to dictate terms to Russia. We're going to dictate terms. We're going to dictate. We're going to tell we're going to talk from a position of power.

But you have to have a five-point plan. They have a five-point plan in Europe. their demands. So, you think they're bringing that to to the ministry.

Or you think or you think they realize the situation on the front line they or do you think they know everything they say is BS and they're going to to the ministry to gravel.

Or or perhaps to pull a fast one, another Minsk type of fast one on Russia. What do you think of the of the three or four different options?

Well, well, if they had a choice, they'd definitely put a pull a Minsk or at least have a five-point plan with point point one is Vladimir Vladimir Rich and his entire cabinet walk out in the middle of Red Square and commit mass Harry Kerry. I'm sure that would be point one. Just commit suicide and it'll all be good after that, which you know, and other fantasy items uh that they may wish for. Look, yeah, I mean, we still have constant talk about we're going to have a ceasefire no matter it's like Trump with Iran. No matter what Iran says, he's just like that little kid. But I want that candy. Give me the candy. Give me the candy. It's the same thing with the Europeans. Oh, we want the ceasefire. We're going to have the ceasefire. We're going to cease. No. Okay, but we want the ceasefire. We want the ceasefire. We want the No, but we want the ceasefire. It's like little pregnant little kids. You just kind of want to smack them upside the head, you know, and go, "No, but uh Lavrov has much more decor than that." Though, I've seen him uh losing his temper. Yeah, Lavro said we we'll listen to them. That was a statement. Let's let's listen to them and see what they have to say.

Come on.

I mean, the impression that I got from Lavro is is at least publicly, they're not even sure why these uh why these three uh the E3 as they go by decided to to finally schedule an appointment to to go to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Yeah. No Unstable internet connection. I just got forward. We had an unstable internet connection that that no moment. Um, the Lavrov I've seen you've seen him on on occasional start to lose his temper. I mean I I the man has a saintly temper uh dealing with these people. So I think you know if I had to guess more than likely they're they they may be in a we we really want to talk to you but this is still our power position uh type of play. uh it's not going to get anywhere. It's it's going to be one of those, yep, okay, thanks. We had the meeting and here's the minutes of the meeting and we go on with our lives. Uh but it does show that, you know, the stages of coping. Um, they're not quite at a point where they've they've uh just admitted that they've lost uh and they need to do something about it. They're still in a negotiation phase where they're trying to negotiate from uh position of strength even though they have no strength. So, I think that's what we're probably going to see. I highly doubt they're going to betray Zalinski outright, though I'm sure there's a lot of interest growing into doing that. But look, look, we we're seeing what's happening in Ireland. We're seeing what's happening in uh in the UK. Um, I mean, the the people are losing it uh internally, and they're losing for good reasons. I mean, they're flooded with migrants. A lot of those migrants have psychological issues. Murders up, economy's down. the pie that gets shared uh in in social services is very is getting smaller. Everything's getting more expensive and they've started to figure out that not everything is like the way the western leadership was telling them. So I think that's uh probably at least partially driving uh what the the leadership the extremely unpopular leadership uh of the EU is probably going to have to do is is sooner or later they're going to have to compromise or go to war. I mean that that's pretty much the only two options they have.

Right? Uh, how is Russia dealing with the drones? Final question. What's what's going on there?

Well, Russia's dealing um there there's several initiatives. Uh one, uh Russia is reorganizing uh internally on drone defense. Companies are asking uh to be able to uh get heavy weaponry to defend their locations, hire people to defend their locations. and we're talking about uh anti-aircraft systems, uh heavy machine guns, things like that. Uh more and more I've been noticing as I was driving uh that there's uh nets that are going up and other obstacles around oil storage tanks because that's what they mostly target is oil storage tank or or fuel storage tanks uh because those burn really nicely. You can't destroy a uh a refinery with a few drones. It's physically impossible. refiners are gigantic uh infrastructural projects. Um, that's one thing that's going on. So we'll we'll see whether or not that initiative goes further. Uh this is what the the various uh uh unions of industrialists are are asking for is to be able create small private uh military outfits to defend their own facilities. Uh I haven't heard anything back as far as I think the government is still considering that the majority I mean the mass production of anti-aircraft systems is in full swing. Uh and it it's increasing the capacity. It's just a question of who's who's beating whom on production of drones versus increase of uh anti-aircraft capacity. The majority of the targets that are hit are not military targets. They're not industrial targets. They're civilian targets. I mean, civilian as in civilian housing. In fact, if you drive down out of Moscow to the edge of Moscow, as you're going toward on M4, heading down south, you can still see several uh highstory apartment buildings at the edge of the city. Uh they have big black marks on them where drones slammed into them trying to kill civilians. Uh that's what they that's the easy target. Hitting government facilities, military facilities is extremely hard. The industrial facilities are hard enough, but the the average apartment building is obviously still the average apartment building. And though the vast vast majority of those drones get intercepted and quite a few of them crash along the way, still enough of them get through. And if you've got nothing but elseh, but you need to have get points for your gamification and kill somebody, there's always civilians. Lots of civilian targets, like it or not. That's that's a reality. And we're dealing we're dealing with a terrorist organization trained by other terrorist organizations called MI6, CIA, and MSAD. You know, the initial the initial strategy was and hope by the West was Russia would overrun Ukraine very quickly and then we would have a perpetual guerilla war up and down for most of former Ukraine to bleed Russia dry and then crash Russia internally and then the West comes in and takes everything over. That obviously didn't happen. What happened was this war of attrition where most of the people that would have volunteered for guerrilla warfare against a Russian occupation are now dead on the battlefield or and the few that that are going to make it out of this alive are are going to be very happy to be still alive. So that possible partisan base is pretty much so gone. It's been destroyed or it's come to realization of of what kind of power is really sitting over them. what kind of people are sitting over there and they don't want to die for these people. They don't want to be there. So that's the reality of it. Uh and a lot of the nationalists, the ultra nationalists are still from western Ukraine and hopefully Poland will get to deal with them sooner than later because by the way av published their new flag and they claim the southern third of Poland. So just as a little heads up for the polls who are having problems with a lot of these Azav militants inside of Poland itself now. Daily crime has gone up a lot. Ukrainian on Polish crime has gone up a lot. So this is this is a very interesting twist. I mean we've we've heard uh we we've seen Ukraine escalate against its own allies. Interesting enough, we'll just take the case of Azerban, which provides uh Ukraine with or may maybe the word might soon be provided in the past tense provides Ukraine with 120 mm rounds, equipment and so on. Ukraine struck two Azer Bjani Aerjani tankers. Well, they weren't tankers. They were ships carrying wheat. and they struck directly in the crew quarters in the Azaf sea killed five Aarjanis injured three others in fact the captain of one of them was buried today in Azar Bjan so there's massive outrage in Lazarjan over this blatant murder and they had the Azer Bjani flags up so they the operators knew who they were hitting the same time uh uh Ukraine sank a Turkish cutter military cutter in Turkish waters they've hit numerous ships coming in and out of the Bosphorus Straits including a Turkish flag ship in Turkish waters. So Erdogan is of course trying to keep his ars on as many seats as possible, but the internally inside of Turkey people is kind of starting to get that shock therapy wake up who you're dealing with in Ukraine that happily will attack in your own sovereign territory. And now we've had a former member of Congress or parliament, let me phrase that, in Romania who's head of the PPR party, Lus Luska, who Mika Luska, if I remember his last name correctly. He came out and flat out said, "Look, those four drones, no, they didn't lose control of those four drones. They couldn't get through to their targets with those four drones because they had spillage protection buoys up and the drone got stuck. Their their targets, what he's saying is their targets were the fuel storage facility in Constantin and the nitrate storage facility. We all remember what happened in Beirut. And now imagine both of those going up at once. They would have taken half the city out as a false flag operation. You wouldn't be able to prove who whose drones those were. Lucky for them, the the drones got stuck. There would have been a mass casualty event to try to start World War II from the Ukrainian side. So, it's basically Ukraine has quite literally attacked everyone around it that supports it. They've attacked Hungary. They've attacked Slovakia. They attacked Romania multiple times. They've attacked Poland. So you know you you see what what you get. You get a desperate cocaine addicted government that needs to expand this war to keep itself alive. I mean I'm talking physically alive. That and that's the situation we have on the front right now.

Yeah. If if the reports about Romania are are true that this was some sort of a false flag that that would have.

That would have really really destroyed Costa that city.

Yep. But but thank God that did not happen.

And um and I think that uh that Romania is the people of Romania understand exactly what's going on as I as I think the people of Poland understand what's going on. But you have guys like Tusk or guys like Nikosurdan who have been put in place in order to try and and hold this this European unity with Ukraine together. That that's their purpose. That's their goal. That's why they're there because they're globalists above anything else. Anyway, um, okay. Uh, Stannislav, uh, excellent, uh, video, excellent, uh, discussion and, uh, and we'll see we'll see you soon, I guess. You're not going anywhere.

Always a pleasure.

Uh, in a couple of weeks, uh, I will be. So, I'll I'll send you some videos uh, from that. So.

Okay, cool.

I'm not saying where until I I've I've left that place, you know, little offset. Uh, so yeah.

All right. Uh, Stannislab, before before we let you go, where can people find you?

Okay, so X is uh Stannis Krypnik. Um, on YouTube it's Mr. Slavic Man, Slavic with a K, all one word. On Telegram, it's Stasn is the Russian, Stasos there is the English, and Substack is Megarinich, which is a three-headed dragon in in Slavic mythology.

All right, those links are the description box down below. Thank you. Take care.