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แม้ถูกคว่ำบาตรมาหลายปี? | แต่อิหร่านไม่มีวันล่ม?

DBซัวเถา17:56

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Countries that are extremely rich in oil, countries that have immense resources, why are the people poor? Palestine is a big problem for the Middle East because of Israel. After World War II ended, America rose to power in the world, but there was a balance of power by the Soviet Union. But the Soviet Union collapsed 35 years ago. Who will become the leader in the world, a multipolar world, after being a unipolar world for over 80 years? Iran will return to being a major power, one nation that participates in the nature of a multipolar world. Iran is not backward. It's just that Iran has no opportunity to trade with the whole world because it is sanctioned. Easas, hello. Right now, I am here in Tehran, Iran. Today is July 4th, American Independence Day. Today is a very important day that Donald Trump has long awaited to celebrate the 250th anniversary of American Independence Day. But on the opposite side, Iran is also holding an event. It is the first day of mourning for Khamenei, the Supreme Leader who has passed away. These two stories are stories that we will share today, about what happened on two sides of the world in the Middle East after more than 40 days of war. Who is the winner or loser? We had the opportunity to participate in a discussion at a meeting room, a meeting room at the Governor's Office in Tehran, Iran. The Governor, or the Governor of the province or city of Tehran, Tehran, presided over the welcoming ceremony for distinguished guests from around the world, especially journalists and influencers. I am one of them, invited by the Thai embassy of the Iranian embassy. And I went to join the discussion. There are some impressions to share. Before the ceremony, there was the singing of the national anthem. I got goosebumps. Listening to the Iranian national anthem, it's a national anthem I'm not familiar with, but I feel that everyone has patriotism. The reason is that it reflects some feelings that I don't understand the content of, but the feeling of the music goes deep into the heart. You will hear it in this clip and have put it together. How do you feel? >> The patriotism of the Iranian people is something we don't know. And some Iranians told me that if we compare Thailand with Iran, what are the differences, or what do we have in common? We have 3 pillars that are similar, but not exactly the same. Iranians adhere to Islam, which is the national religion. Almost everyone who adheres to it uses it as a principle of practice. The President, the Supreme Leader, the Speaker of Parliament, whom I often mention in various clips where I analyze news about the Iran-US war, I want to say that I have experienced it firsthand and I understand. I understand why Iranians love their country and their religion. They had a monarchy that has fallen, but Thailand still has a monarchy alongside Thailand. Some Iranians told me that Thailand should learn from Iran in preserving its highest institutions. In Iran, the Supreme Leader and the religious leader, or the political administration, are the same person. But what is clearly different is that there is no monarchy here. We can say it fell 47 years ago by the Iranian people themselves. Why was the king, the Shah, not popular? For what reason? I asked the Iranian people, and they said it was due to extreme inequality. The king did not take care of the people sincerely, did not reach the people, causing faith in the monarchy to decline. Imam Khomeini, you may not know him, but I know him. I lived through it. He was the leader of the Iranian Revolution in overthrowing the Iranian monarchy. The reason was extreme inequality, a lot of oppression at that time, and foreign intervention, especially the oil concessions of Iran, which almost caused Iran to collapse. A country extremely rich in oil, a country with immense resources, why are its people poor? Yesterday, I had dinner with a group of journalists. There were still beggars. There were still poor people. A country that is very rich in oil, ranked 3rd in the world, has no income like other countries. Why? That's the question I'm wondering about. So I came to find the answer here. In the discussion, this was mentioned. It was mentioned that Palestine is a big problem for the Middle East because of Israel. There was a lot of criticism of Israel, a lot of criticism of the United States. As someone not involved in these events, I feel why Iran is the only country that strongly opposes America. And then there are problems of conflict, leading to war. They talked about the current situation, that this post-American war is very important for us to understand clearly that in the current situation, America is also being opposed and sanctioned in Iran. Conversely, America also sanctions Iran enormously. These two countries do not get along at all. I drove past the American embassy, the original embassy, about 30 years ago, when the hostages were held for over 400 days. I know roughly what happened, but I want to study seriously why Iran and the United States are so angry right now. This is another interesting clip to study. But today, I will talk about the discussion that took place in the meeting room in Tehran. After we listened to the Iranian national anthem and understood their patriotism, there were many people who came to participate in the discussion. The first group had a total of 5 people. They talked about the New World Order, who will become the leader in the world in a multipolar world, after being a unipolar world for over 80 years. Maybe not. Maybe it started about 30 years ago, because after World War II ended, America rose to power in the world, but there was a balance of power by the Soviet Union. But the Soviet Union collapsed 35 years ago, causing the world to be ruled by America alone, a unipolar world. And now, the New World Order has become a multipolar world. This is what they discussed on stage. I listened with difficulty because sometimes it wasn't translated, sometimes it was strange, sometimes they spoke Arabic, sometimes Persian. But I grasped the general idea from listening to English and felt that what they were saying is that Iran will return to being a major power, one nation that participates in the nature of a multipolar world. Why think Iran will return when Iran is considered a rather backward country in the eyes of the West? But I came here to Tehran. Iran is not backward. Iran is not underdeveloped. It's just that Iran has no opportunity to trade with the whole world because it is sanctioned, which makes its development slow. But compared to Thailand, it is not inferior. There are 7 subway lines that are very cheap, currently free, free on all lines. I rode them to test their efficiency. The efficiency is very good. It's free to ride. The management system is not crowded. People sit comfortably, not too crowded. It can be said that everyone is happy. Gasoline is very cheap, not more than 10 baht, 7-8 baht. Everyone can use cars. The price of gasoline is very cheap. The cost of living is very cheap. I want to say that the discussion talked about these things, that a multipolar world will create an opportunity for Iran to grow into a country with potential if it receives help from China and Russia to balance power with the superpower, the United States. Will they reconcile with Iran or not? This is a very difficult question because the United States is actually very angry with Iran. Iran's arch-enemy is Israel, with the conflict over Palestine as the main issue. So, what happened is that the United States might reconcile with Iran. Even if they fight to death, interests are paramount, and they can reconcile. But for Israel, there is no way they can reconcile. Why? Because of the Palestine issue, which we won't discuss because it's an unsolvable world problem. But the United States can solve it. Because the United States does not have that much interest in Israel. What they are doing now is a connection between the elites of the United States and Israel, which is the Jewish people. But we won't talk about this. We will talk about what happened in the US-Iran conflict: oil. Donald Trump wants to rule the world by using oil energy as the main source. He cannot do without Iran. Therefore, Donald might change the nature of military power or power to soft power. The best way to change to soft power is to reconcile. Iran and the US should talk nicely. Because in the past, the United States had a very high influence. But when the regime changed to the Islamic Republic of Iran, the way of thinking changed. I saw a tweet saying that the new generation of Iranian leaders are leaders who can talk, leaders who are capable and intelligent. But I understand that Mustafa Khamenei, the current Supreme Leader, has no way to reconcile with Donald Trump. But for the sake of the nation, for sacrifice, he might be willing to suppress all anger so that the nation survives. There might be negotiations in the form of exchanging benefits to reach a compromise for peace and prosperity for the people, and for the people to participate in national development. The discussion talked about this. And it was also said that America can never win against Iran. Various representatives spoke, about 10 people. There were 2 rounds. The second round was about Hezbollah and the Houthis. Representatives of the Houthis and Hezbollah came to talk. In that conversation, I felt the anger and resentment of Hezbollah for their immense losses when attacked by Israel in the south. Many people died, and territory was occupied by Israel. How could they be happy when they are citizens of Lebanon, but they are Hezbollah? Hezbollah means a Muslim who is loyal to Islam, which Iran supports. They are not Iranian citizens. They are Lebanese. And the Houthis are Yemenis who receive support from Iran because Iran's policy is to support everyone who loves justice and fights for survival in Islam. This is the difference that allows us to see something. Iran is tired, but it tries to help its friends for the survival of everyone. Therefore, we will see the Houthis, or even Hezbollah, come on stage and talk about the pain and suffering of being oppressed by Israel. We might say that Israel is the main cause of the problem. We don't want to analyze or criticize who is good or bad. As someone not directly involved in the situation, we should say that Iran is not wrong. So we have to look at the situation like this, post-American war. How will Iran survive? We are not saying that Iran must achieve great success. The survival of the country is to sell oil, generate foreign income, so that countries come to invest in the country. And the opportunity for investment in Iran can generate returns for Iran to survive and be safe economically. Many people have said that Iran might win this war. If viewed from this perspective, a ceasefire, a truce, is a request from the American side to cease fire. You might say you are the winner. But if your economy collapses, can it be considered a victory? Some people say this. But I ask, in my view, will Iran's economy collapse? I don't think so, because there is still lively trade. They say there is a lot of inflation. I see that inflation is indeed real. A bond for 10 million is 10 million rials. I'm still wondering how much 10 million rials is worth. It's worth 250 baht. For Iranians, this highest denomination bill, when buying things, no one has change, can't find it. So I thought, is food expensive? It is expensive. It is cheap in two things: transportation and gasoline. Transportation is very cheap. The metro fare is very cheap. A car costs about 600,000 baht. Gasoline is about 7-8 baht per liter. But the economy is very fragile. Why? Because their income from abroad, in US dollars, is very little. The demand for US dollars is because they have to buy goods from abroad, which requires dollars. Now, everything is solved by using yuan to buy goods from China. So, in Tehran, the whole city belongs to China. So the US has lost. Europe has lost. Japan has lost the opportunity to buy from Iran. I walked around the streets, and many people greeted me. Because I don't look like them. Because foreigners come here very rarely. And everyone sees me as Japanese. I don't understand them either. Maybe they haven't seen many foreigners, or too few Chinese come here. The way we can talk is that what is happening in Iran is a country that is very welcoming to foreigners. So they welcome foreigners. When I go to exchange money, or when I look for things, they help me fully. This is what I have experienced in Iran. The discussion made us feel that the goal of the conversation is that they want us to realize that the world has changed from a unipolar world to a multipolar world, a world with many poles. And Iran will participate by being supported by China and Russia. China and Russia can be said to be mentors. And they talk about China a lot because China is an economic superpower that can help Iran, especially by buying oil. If China increases its oil purchases from Iran, China can buy as much oil from Iran as it wants. Because China's imports are enormous, about 5 million barrels per day. If they buy about 1 million from Iran, they can increase the quantity. But what happens is that from the Middle East, 5 million barrels. If they only increase from the Middle East, it can increase Iran's income. But they don't do that. Because there is economic risk. If Iran has problems, they will also be in trouble. So they diversify their purchases worldwide. Now, they have to diversify their purchases to Russia more. The reason is that Iran has problems. Now Iran is back to its original state. And they can increase consumption or oil purchases from Iran. This will increase Iran's income. And Iran can sell oil to other countries, for example, ASEAN countries, East Asian countries. The only rule is that if they can lift the sanctions from America, everything will make them have enough income to support themselves. This is why I say it is very possible that Iran will return to the global trading system. After returning to the global trading system, Iran will have the potential to buy goods because there is a huge demand for goods. After receiving sufficient income from the purchase of goods, they will have purchasing power to buy imported goods, whether from Thailand, China, Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, or anywhere else. In conclusion, I will discuss in the next clip about the discussion and debate about the goals of what was discussed today. But for sure, someone summarized at the end that America will decline significantly because war requires enormous capital and finance. It is impossible for Americans to wage war against the whole world because they lack money. They have enormous debt. They cannot increase their debt. And the capital to wage war cannot be found. Americans will never win a war against Iran. Even if the Iran war drags on for many years like the Ukraine war, Iran will be able to stand on its own because it has stood for 47 years. But Americans themselves will run out of budget. Currently, the American budget is not enough, with deficits of trillions of dollars every year, accumulating continuously. There is no way that, from a financial perspective, the United States can wage war for more than 2 weeks. They can't do more than that because they run out of money. Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe. Goodbye. >> Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to the DB Suathao channel to not miss interesting clips and watch new clips first.